[HN Gopher] Thoughts on a "HDD shortage" from an industry insider
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       Thoughts on a "HDD shortage" from an industry insider
        
       Author : CharlesW
       Score  : 117 points
       Date   : 2021-05-01 17:54 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reddit.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reddit.com)
        
       | herodoturtle wrote:
       | There are quite a few (good) comments here focusing on the crypto
       | aspect of this HDD supply shortage.
       | 
       | That aside, to those of you that are scanning the comments here
       | without having actually read the OP's reddit link - I'd urge you
       | to read the linked page.
       | 
       | It is an incredibly insightful summary of the HDD supply chain.
       | 
       | (Whether it was indeed written by an "industry insider" or not is
       | irrelevant; their analysis of the HDD market is highly
       | informative)
        
       | h2odragon wrote:
       | "we expect a supply shortage lasting years again" but NFT's are
       | still a better investment opportunity than a new hard drive
       | manufacturer.
        
       | bitL wrote:
       | Hm, based on this I ordered 1x16TB and 2x14TB HDD drives right
       | away (the maximum allowed at that seller, ~60% surcharge to the
       | price from a week ago). If HDDs/SSDs end up as obtainable as
       | GPUs, we are going to experience some serious troubles... I
       | somehow managed to get 3x3090FE but that was just super lucky
       | timing.
       | 
       | I am not sure what grad student Deep Learning researchers are
       | going to do?
        
         | ansgri wrote:
         | Maybe they finally turn their attention to models of manageable
         | complexity and stop trying to create magic with models of
         | enormous size that even in theory benefit only Big Adtech. Even
         | mass surveillance requires rather small models.
        
       | Firehawke wrote:
       | It's interesting that that's precisely where we are with video
       | cards-- the easiest way to get one is to buy a prebuilt system
       | from any of the big names.
       | 
       | It's really not much of a stretch to see HDs go to exactly that
       | same pressure point.
        
         | bitL wrote:
         | It's also next to impossible to get workstation boards with
         | many PCIe slots and now that spreads even to "creator" boards.
         | I guess mining is going to eat it all.
        
         | Haemm0r wrote:
         | Our IT guy told us, that (about 10pcs) the Dell machines he
         | ordered (T5810 or something similar) a couple of weeks ago will
         | ship in July earliest(although the online shops states better
         | delivery times). So there could be some shortage too or at
         | least logistical problems...
        
         | banana_giraffe wrote:
         | And getting a prebuilt to get a video card is itself becoming
         | hard at this point. The big names are pushing estimated
         | delivery dates for prebuilts with 30 series cards out to June
         | or July at this point.
         | 
         | I suppose getting a card in July in a prebuilt is still better
         | than not getting a card on its own.
         | 
         | While I was digging around, it looks like some of the laptops
         | with 30 series in them are even at the "ETA: One day soon!"
         | point.
        
       | nuclearwast wrote:
       | It's 2011 again... It took ~7 years before price went back to
       | what they were.
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | The flood that shutdown that Thai HD motor plant was the start
         | of SSDs' takeover.
        
       | stefan_ wrote:
       | You could probably take this and replace HDD with SSD or RAM and
       | it would be just as correct.
        
         | xondono wrote:
         | Well, the primary difference is that cloud providers go through
         | HDDs almost as consumables, while RAM and SSD are generally
         | more long lasting.
         | 
         | Contracts are set up in similar ways, but HDDs in general have
         | more constraints baked in those contracts.
        
         | bt1a wrote:
         | I don't believe these terms are interchangeable, especially
         | when this writeup is in response to Chia.
         | 
         | Is it possible SSD or RAM have a similar bottleneck like
         | read/write heads? Yes, but I don't know the answer.
        
           | akiselev wrote:
           | _> Is it possible SSD or RAM have a similar bottleneck like
           | read /write heads?_
           | 
           | Yes. You could replace "read/write heads" with "chips" and
           | it'd apply just as easily to SSD and RAM. Texas's freak
           | weather shut down Samsung's Texas fab which caused a shortage
           | of SSD controller chips, for example. After the February
           | outage, I don't think they started to tape out again until
           | April.
        
       | nullc wrote:
       | It's really important that manufacturers start responding to
       | cryptocurrency induced shortages with auctions.
       | 
       | The demand from the cryptocurrency users will be extremely high
       | until they've spent a particular amount in total. They can do
       | that with 1000 units, or with 5000 units.
       | 
       | Obviously auctioning off units would be bad for having
       | predictable prices for retail customers but that is irrelevant if
       | aggressive miner buying is buying up all the supply.
       | 
       | Moreover, shareholders at the manufacturers should be demanding
       | it: they're leaving money on the table.
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | This is asinine. You would be making the product only available
         | to those who can turn the highest profit from it and would lose
         | the rest of your customer base to your competitor who is smart
         | enough to not use an auction model. The entire cash flow would
         | come from one narrow sector which would eventually collapse,
         | leaving you with no customers. Business models evolve toward
         | efficiency, and there is a good reason no one is doing this.
        
           | dehrmann wrote:
           | You realize capitalism is a system for allocating scare
           | goods, right? An auction model means manufacturers benefit
           | directly, and unless they're in a cartel, the high prices
           | incentivize them to increase production. We see this happen
           | all the time in the oil marker with marginal producers
           | entering and exiting the market. Without an auction, anyone
           | lucky enough to win the HDD lottery will have the same
           | incentive, only they'll sell it on ebay.
        
           | the8472 wrote:
           | That sounds like a one-shot model. Auctions for mass-produced
           | goods would be per batch. Nullc's argument is that driving up
           | the price of auctions would exhaust whatever cash pile the
           | miners are sitting on faster, which means they would gobble
           | up fewer harddrives than they will if the prices are kept
           | low.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | >You would be making the product only available to those who
           | can turn the highest profit from it and would lose the rest
           | of your customer base to your competitor who is smart enough
           | to not use an auction model
           | 
           | Auction sucks because it drives the price of goods up, but
           | you know what's worse than prices going up? Prices going to
           | _infinity_ because they 're out of stock.
        
         | fpgaminer wrote:
         | 1) Nvidia et al. have to work with Big Retail (tm) [i.e.
         | Walmart, Target, Best Buy]. Big Retail isn't interested in
         | doing auctions. They function off the tried and true MSRP
         | model. No matter how much money is being left on the table.
         | This applies just as much to GPUs and hard drives as it does to
         | the recent console shortages.
         | 
         | I've worked with Big Retail execs before. They're old school
         | and conservative (in the business sense).
         | 
         | In a smoke filled CES hotel room they shook hands on a deal of
         | X for $Y, and that's how it's going to stay for the next
         | decade.
         | 
         | 2) Risk. These shortages and cryptocurrency demand spikes are a
         | blip on the history of these companies. It'd be stupid to
         | suddenly change their entire business models and retail
         | relationships for something that could disappear next month.
         | 
         | As much as I believe cryptocurrency and hence mining is here to
         | stay, I can't fault these companies for not believing the same
         | and acting accordingly. Especially given the cycles of boom and
         | bust that cryptocurrencies have gone through.
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | This sounds great. Hard drive prices will start increasing
         | until building a computer is prohibitively expensive unless
         | you're a large scale OEM that can make bulk contracts. Another
         | example of cryptocurrency empowering individuals.
        
         | hdhrnnrkrkf wrote:
         | Burning your regular customers is terrible business practice.
         | It's not always about the money.
         | 
         | Also, remember when Martin Shkreli increased the price of an
         | anti-parasitic drug by 5000%? That upset a lot of people, and
         | arguably it's what put him in jail. Of course, HDDs are not
         | quite the same as vital medicine.
        
           | orev wrote:
           | An auction is not an arbitrary increase just because you can.
           | It's the exact opposite- a natural market where supply and
           | demand reach the optimal price.
           | 
           | Yeah it's bad for regular customers, but if there's no supply
           | then what would they be able to get anyway?
        
       | 99_00 wrote:
       | I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to
       | collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I
       | know about building a crypto mining rig.
       | 
       | What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the
       | cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a
       | Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.
        
         | scientismer wrote:
         | I wouldn't count on the cheap hardware, it may be pretty much
         | broken after endless full power use for mining.
        
           | shiftpgdn wrote:
           | I mined bitcoin, litecoin and later dogecoin on a bunch of
           | workstations in a hot humid garage in Houston, Texas for
           | years straight. I gave one of the workstations to a friend
           | when I retired from mining in 2013 or so. It was still
           | running fine when he retired it last year. Consumer
           | electronics are much more durable than you would imagine.
        
           | Slartie wrote:
           | Miners usually undervolt the GPUs to mine at peak efficiency,
           | not peak performance and power consumption. Since chip wear
           | correlates with power usage and heat production, GPU usage
           | for mining is actually much less taxing for the hardware than
           | typical gaming use with its frequent overclocking and rapid
           | alterations between low and maximum power use.
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | Presumably you're familiar with ebay?
         | 
         | (I wouldn't necessarily trust parts that have been worked to
         | death btw)
        
         | bitL wrote:
         | Coinbase had IPO, meaning serious business bought their shares,
         | hedge and pension funds - I would be careful expecting any kind
         | of normalcy in the next 2-3 years.
        
           | 99_00 wrote:
           | >serious business bought their shares, hedge and pension
           | funds
           | 
           | Your assuming that proves a point, but it doesn't.
        
           | dehrmann wrote:
           | Coinbase had a direct listing. There was no roadshow to line
           | up institutional investors. I'm sure some big-time investors
           | bought shares, but I'm sure some retail ones did, too. You
           | know who sold? Early Coinbase investors and employees.
        
         | Havoc wrote:
         | I wouldn't count on it collapsing any time soon. Not with
         | everyone from Visa to Time magazine jumping on the bandwagon
         | 
         | >I've never built a PC.
         | 
         | Definitely worthwhile. Basically lego for adults. Tons of good
         | info here
         | 
         | https://old.reddit.com/r/buildapc/
        
           | graeme wrote:
           | There is a well known curse to Time/Newsweek/Businessweek
           | covers. Things that make the front page there tend to do
           | worse.
           | 
           | No guarantee, but it's more of an anti signal.
        
             | diarrhea wrote:
             | That's regression to the mean and perfectly normal, there's
             | a whole science associated with it. It's not a curse or
             | even specific to any outlet. This is a suitable example: ht
             | tps://web.archive.org/web/20210121061334/http://wmbriggs.c.
             | ..
        
               | graeme wrote:
               | Right. I just meant being in Time is not much of a signal
        
             | Havoc wrote:
             | I meant Time accepts BTC for subscriptions now...not Time
             | as in BTC making Time cover
        
       | humaniania wrote:
       | TIL all it takes to be a reputable "industry insider" is an
       | anonymous reddit account.
        
         | okareaman wrote:
         | Says 'humaniania'
        
         | wnevets wrote:
         | Do you really need to be an "industry insider" to make any of
         | their observations? Nothing they said seems to require they be
         | actual "industry insider".
        
           | jessriedel wrote:
           | Exactly. These are all check-able facts (not, e.g.,
           | allegations of secret dealings or something). The fact that
           | he works in the industry is what allows him to write this
           | compactly; it's not proof of correctness.
        
         | ericbarrett wrote:
         | I was in the storage industry (demand side) for many years and
         | nothing the Reddit poster said is wrong. S/he correctly
         | described the allocation process with regard to retail channels
         | and large direct customers, as well as the non-fungibility of
         | read/write heads. Their speculation about whether there will be
         | a shortage is just that--speculation.
        
         | hyperman1 wrote:
         | The scary thing is, I don't know if I can trust him less than
         | any 'reputable newspaper'. At least if this he says dumb
         | things, someone on HN will call him out. The reputable source
         | has only one voice, it will say anything that brings in extra
         | money, and lots of invisible third parties will try to
         | influence it.
        
       | beervirus wrote:
       | https://old.reddit.com/r/chia/comments/n2lren/thoughts_on_a_...
       | 
       | Fixed link.
        
         | hsbauauvhabzb wrote:
         | Thanks, I can't view the original on my phone without the app
         | because 'Reddit can't verify the community is not 18+' which is
         | a thinly veiled user hostile move-to-our app play. Shame on
         | them.
        
       | jl6 wrote:
       | Bitcoin ate all the GPUs and I said nothing because I was not a
       | gamer.
       | 
       | Now Chia wants to eat all the hard disks, and I am _pissed_. I
       | declare war on hegemonizing proof-of-waste swarms. Burn the
       | coins. I want that disk space back.
        
         | yellow_lead wrote:
         | Chia claims to be a more green solution. Even going as far as
         | to call their white paper a "green paper." Not sure anyone told
         | them that burning through hard drives isn't very green either.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.chia.net/greenpaper/
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | Yeah, all the electricity savings is just going to go towards
           | buying (aka manufacturing) more hard drives.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | ancientworldnow wrote:
         | Ethereum are the GPU's. Bitcoin utilizes ASIC's designed only
         | for Bitcoin. This is an eventual e-waste issue, but not a GPU
         | supply issue.
        
           | spuz wrote:
           | There was a period between about 2011 and 2014 when the
           | fastest way to mine bitcoin was on a GPU and it did cause a
           | shortage in cards:
           | 
           | https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/11/amds-
           | graph...
        
           | mistrial9 wrote:
           | there is no "eventual E-Waste issue" .. there has been an
           | E-Waste issue for 20+ years. Ridiculous amounts of fresh
           | water, electricity, transport fuel and other non-renewables
           | have been poured into the PC industry since most here were
           | born. The damage that this does is proportional to a few
           | things, like the source of the electricity and the
           | containment of the material and "end of life" .. Consumer
           | electronics have been living way past their means for
           | decades, but in the age of COMDEX Las Vegas, as long as the
           | quarterly results match, few in a decision-making role
           | actually care.
        
           | formerly_proven wrote:
           | Nobody cares which coin of the week is used, it is time to
           | get rid of the crypto garbage.
        
           | jfim wrote:
           | Do bitcoin ASICs compete for the same limited IC foundry
           | space?
        
             | Phlarp wrote:
             | Antminer S19 uses a 7nm process, so yes.
        
         | cheaprentalyeti wrote:
         | Uh, the last time I checked, Bitcoin mining typically uses
         | ASICs. GPUs are not involved.
        
           | hsbauauvhabzb wrote:
           | Last I checked, miners aren't mining Bitcoin anymore. But
           | miners are making the GPU shortage worse.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | fmajid wrote:
         | "Chia" means "shat" in French.
        
           | sopp wrote:
           | Do you mean "chie"? (shee-eh)
        
           | capableweb wrote:
           | "Chia" also refers to the plant "Salvia hispanica", that's
           | Nahuatl/Mexicano.
        
             | meowster wrote:
             | I'm from the U.S., and when I hear/read "Chia", I think of
             | the Chia Pet.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chia_Pet
        
               | justinator wrote:
               | They are one and the same!
        
             | fmajid wrote:
             | Quite frankly, I'd rather eat shit.
        
           | graeme wrote:
           | You mean chier, the verb. Chia means chia
        
             | TacticalCoder wrote:
             | Well the simple past tense / 3rd person of "chier" is
             | precisely "chia", spelled exactly like that. The herb/plant
             | "chia" always sounds a bit weird to my ears because it
             | makes me think of the verb tense... "Il chia" / "He shat".
             | So GP is totally correct.
        
         | EMM_386 wrote:
         | In that thread, they do the math on Chia's current effect, and
         | it is tiny.
         | 
         | Not to say it won't grow to become a problem but even at 1EB of
         | storage, it's not a problem:
         | 
         | > Data center storage growth is round 2-2.5 EB/day. The 1.4 EB
         | used by Chia so far is less than one day's data center growth.
         | 
         | I'm not defending yet another wasteful use of cryptocurrency
         | ... first it was the GPUs now its the SSDs.
        
           | seanalexander wrote:
           | Until we live in some horrid future where computers no longer
           | have storage and we all use the cloud, consumers need to buy
           | HDDs too. Not just data centers. This is a retail-level
           | issue, not a data center growth issue. It's the same as how
           | GPUs aren't on shelves because people use them to mine --
           | ASICs are better but the ASIC game is hard for retail
           | "miners" to get into.
        
       | hdhrnnrkrkf wrote:
       | Sample size 1: every 3 months I need to buy a large hard drive
       | (14TB+). I buy external USB ones since they are the cheapest.
       | 
       | Since it was due, in the last couple of weeks I was scanning
       | prices in Romania daily, in case I get lucky with a discount. In
       | the last week, prices surged 60-100%, and stock disappeared for 4
       | TB+.
       | 
       | I panicked and after a lot of scanning I managed to buy a
       | slightly smaller one than I needed with just a 20% surcharge.
       | 
       | Prices on Amazon UK are also out of control.
       | 
       | So now we are out of chips, CPUs, GPUs and hard drives. What a
       | time to be alive :)
       | 
       | PS: I would love to hear Backblaze take on this shortage.
        
         | nonameiguess wrote:
         | I just checked my Amazon order history right now. Last time I
         | bought a Samsung Evo Plus 1 TB SSD was last August, 2020, for
         | $189. Price right now if I buy it today is $159. Last HDD I
         | bought was a 12 TB Seagate Ironwolf for $269, in October 2020.
         | Today's price for the same drive is $325. It is out of stock,
         | but says I can get it May 18th.
        
         | ramshanker wrote:
         | CPU, GPU and Hard Drive.... guess we can have more dumb devices
         | for now instead of everything IoT.
        
           | giantrobot wrote:
           | Wait until I unveil IoTCoin, it'll use PoIoT to verify the
           | blockchain. Keep an eye out for my ICO!
           | 
           | /s (or is it?)
        
             | joeyh wrote:
             | HNT Hotspot Miners are uncomfortably close.
        
         | Ericson2314 wrote:
         | Shortages are good.
         | 
         | It's the perfect time to set up manufacturing capability, so
         | nationalists can be happy.
         | 
         | It's a good time to push for hire wages, workers should do it.
         | 
         | If there is some alternative industrial process, now's the time
         | to try it.
         | 
         | This is no 70s oil moment, because there's no indication fewer
         | widgets are being produced than prepandemic.
        
           | newsclues wrote:
           | I think it's a logistics problem, so adding more supply via
           | new factories (unless local) won't resolve the problem if the
           | goods can't be shipped.
        
           | smolder wrote:
           | This doesn't change that the shortages are caused by
           | processes with infinite appetites. The demand grows with the
           | supply, for hardware used by cryptocurrencies. To me it looks
           | like the polar opposite of sustainability, which is
           | distressing.
        
             | oceanplexian wrote:
             | I just don't get the sustainability argument..
             | 
             | Who decided that all computing must be for a sustainable or
             | meaningful purpose? Cryptocurrency, as wasteful as it might
             | appear, is like a drop in the ocean compared to the data
             | centers of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. Likes on
             | Facebook provide much less value to society than a
             | distributed currency that circumvents central control over
             | the financial system.
             | 
             | Second, Crypto doesn't exist in a vacuum. How much "energy"
             | does it take to disassemble a mountain and suck out
             | precious metals or diamonds? How much energy does it take
             | to manufacture all the coins and paper money the world
             | over? And how many innocent people have been gunned down
             | for the petrodollar or some other dispute over fiat
             | currency?
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | > _Cryptocurrency, as wasteful as it might appear, is
               | like a drop in the ocean compared to the data centers of
               | Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc._
               | 
               | It isn't, as 'mytherin points out.
               | 
               | > _Likes on Facebook provide much less value to society_
               | 
               | That's absurdly untrue. For all the warts of big social
               | media players, they still provide tremendous social value
               | - rich long-distance communication, organizing ad-hoc
               | groups of people (including, in particular, meatspace
               | ones), improved exchange of news worldwide, making things
               | easier for local commerce, ... I could go on. And while
               | these services can, and are, being misused, they are
               | still at least doing something useful.
               | 
               | > _than a distributed currency that circumvents central
               | control over the financial system._
               | 
               | Except it doesn't. But even if it did, this isn't
               | necessarily a good idea in the first place.
               | 
               | > _How much "energy" does it take to disassemble a
               | mountain and suck out precious metals or diamonds?_
               | 
               | Less than it takes to run Bitcoin, and it's also a one-
               | time expense.
               | 
               | > _How much energy does it take to manufacture all the
               | coins and paper money the world over?_
               | 
               | Not that much on an ongoing basis. It's also O(n) with
               | respect to the amount of extra money you need in
               | circulation. A trivial cost compared to what the upkeep
               | would be if we tried to run the world economy on Bitcoin.
               | 
               | > _And how many innocent people have been gunned down for
               | the petrodollar or some other dispute over fiat
               | currency?_
               | 
               | People kill other people for profit. That's a fact of
               | life, independent of the way money is represented. That
               | they don't kill each other over crypto says only one
               | thing: that right now, cryptocurrencies are _completely
               | irrelevant to the economy_. If crypto ever sees any
               | serious adoption, a proportional body count will follow.
               | 
               | (Also, I imagine the number for Bitcoin is already
               | greater than zero, given that cryptocurrencies are
               | disproportionally popular with criminals compared to
               | general population.)
        
               | MereInterest wrote:
               | > Not that much on an ongoing basis. It's also O(n) with
               | respect to the amount of extra money you need in
               | circulation.
               | 
               | I think this isn't quite correct, but is even more in
               | favor of fiat currency. Minting money costs in proportion
               | to the number of bills/coins. If more value is needed,
               | the denomination being printed can be changed to
               | represent more value with the same cost.
               | 
               | On the other hand, cryptocurrencies require wasting
               | resources proportional to the total value represented by
               | them. Any less and they are vulnerable to attacks.
               | Therefore, (as I'm sure will come as a shock to nobody)
               | this is another way that cryptocurrencies scale worse
               | than fiat.
        
               | Judgmentality wrote:
               | > People kill other people for profit. That's a fact of
               | life, independent of the way money is represented. That
               | they don't kill each other over crypto says only one
               | thing: that right now, cryptocurrencies are completely
               | irrelevant to the economy. If crypto ever sees any
               | serious adoption, a proportional body count will follow.
               | 
               | This is a fascinating insight I had not considered.
        
               | mytherin wrote:
               | Bitcoin alone is estimated to use around 129 TWh of
               | electricity [1], compared to 12 TWh for Google or 200 TWh
               | for _literally all other data centers_ [2]. Hardly a drop
               | in the bucket, unless that drop is the size of 10
               | buckets. Surely not even the most hardcore cryptocurrency
               | enthusiast would argue that crypto provides anywhere near
               | the utility of _the rest of the entire internet_.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-
               | power-consu...
               | 
               | [2] https://www.deccanherald.com/business/why-bitcoin-
               | uses-10-ti...
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | entropea wrote:
               | >Cryptocurrency, as wasteful as it might appear, is like
               | a drop in the ocean compared to the data centers of
               | Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc.
               | 
               | https://www.eenewseurope.com/news/first-seven-
               | customers-5nm-...
               | 
               | Are you sure? Bitmain is competing for 5nm wafers against
               | the largest electronics manufacturers in the world.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | >It's the perfect time to set up manufacturing capability, so
           | nationalists can be happy.
           | 
           | >If there is some alternative industrial process, now's the
           | time to try it.
           | 
           | wouldn't this take years?
           | 
           | >It's a good time to push for hire wages, workers should do
           | it.
           | 
           | This is just speculation on my part, but I suspect hard drive
           | manufacturing is much more labor intensive than capital
           | intensive. Therefore I doubt this will translate into higher
           | wages.
        
           | bcrosby95 wrote:
           | Companies won't invest in factories if they think the demand
           | is temporary. Because by the time they come online the demand
           | will be gone.
        
         | hogFeast wrote:
         | > Prices on Amazon UK are also out of control
         | 
         | ...they are not. Sale last week for 8TB at PS14/TB. I would say
         | that prices are marginally higher than they were a few weeks
         | ago...average prices are probably PS16/TB at the top consumer
         | end but supply is fine, this price is not particularly high
         | historically, it is not unmanageable for individuals, SSDs
         | prices are cratering (hint: buy stuff that doesn't have massive
         | TBW, these consumer drives are unusuable for Chia...prices of
         | this stuff has dropped by 20-30% in the past few months), and
         | there is ample supply on other sites too (I believe the issue
         | with Amazon is that they just ran some huge discounts on the
         | external drives popular with consumers..they will be restocked
         | in a week or so).
         | 
         | Also, you can pick up used stuff too. The supply of used drives
         | with lots of life left is basically endless. And no-one is
         | mining with 4TB drives.
        
         | vladvasiliu wrote:
         | My sample size of 1 shows little to no move, although I wasn't
         | looking at drives as large as you.
         | 
         | In my case I was having my eyes on 5 TB 2.5" drives. I don't
         | _need_ them, I 'd just _maybe like_ them, so I haven 't pulled
         | the trigger, but I have them set aside on Amazon France. The
         | price has stayed within a few euros of 110 EUR for the last 2-3
         | months.
        
           | nicbou wrote:
           | Same here for the same product, but in Germany.
        
           | hdhrnnrkrkf wrote:
           | My advice would be to decide today if you want them or not.
           | They are not going to get cheaper, and could get
           | significantly more expensive in days.
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | I'm not sure how pricing works where you live, but to get
         | optimal pricing I usually have to wait a few months, or maybe
         | even a year (black Friday). Given that all time lows for hard
         | drive prices haven't budged much in the past few years, why buy
         | every few months rather than stocking up when prices are low?
         | 
         | Anyways for my data point: there was some external hard drives
         | on sale for 5-10% higher than "optimal" prices.
         | 
         | >and stock disappeared for 4 TB+.
         | 
         | That's strange because those drives have terrible TB/$ compared
         | to 10+TB drives.
        
           | hdhrnnrkrkf wrote:
           | Opportunity cost. By keeping my cash in bitcoin I can now buy
           | (well, not with this shortage) 5 times more hard drives than
           | last black Friday.
        
             | SECProto wrote:
             | > By keeping my cash in bitcoin I can now buy (well, not
             | with this shortage) 5 times more hard drives than last
             | black Friday.
             | 
             | Probably only 4 after you pay the appropriate capital gains
             | taxes, I'd hope. :)
        
               | Semaphor wrote:
               | If they have to. Not sure how it works in Romania, but in
               | Germany you can sell coins held for 1 year or more
               | without having to pay taxes.
        
         | humaniania wrote:
         | My advice is to ignore anonymous new accounts making
         | inflammatory and fear mongering statements.
        
           | hdhrnnrkrkf wrote:
           | Open Amazon and look up hard drive prices and availability.
           | 
           | This one is easy to fact check.
        
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