[HN Gopher] Largest card grading service halts submissions
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       Largest card grading service halts submissions
        
       Author : maxwell
       Score  : 24 points
       Date   : 2021-04-16 18:59 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.espn.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.espn.com)
        
       | jnwatson wrote:
       | If this isn't a sign of a super-frothy market top, I don't know
       | what is.
       | 
       | There's too much capital chasing too few investment
       | opportunities.
        
         | anm89 wrote:
         | Markets are obviously insane right now but that doesn't mean
         | that the people in the market are irrational.
         | 
         | This bubble is going to pop with a devaluation of the dollar or
         | a devaluation of everything else. But just because we are in a
         | speculative mania does not mean that the price of assets is
         | going to go down moving forward denominated in dollars. It is
         | very possible the people shoving their money into baseball
         | cards look like geniuses 5 years from now if the alternative
         | was holding cash or having zero diversification.
        
           | arcticbull wrote:
           | > This bubble is going to pop with a devaluation of the
           | dollar or a devaluation of everything else.
           | 
           | I'm not sure where you get the idea that the dollar is
           | suddenly going to lose a ton of value. People have been
           | calling for this since the beginning of time, just like the
           | people who keep trying to short the S&P 500. It's not gonna
           | happen, certainly not any time soon.
           | 
           | If it did, however, assets would moon as literally anything
           | other than cash is inflation-proof. Moon in units, but remain
           | likely quite constant in value.
        
             | Workaccount2 wrote:
             | You might find this interesting
             | 
             | https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-m1
             | 
             | It basically shows the value of the S&P 500 as a function
             | of total cash in the system.
        
         | hristov wrote:
         | It may also be a sign of people stuck at home going through
         | their stuff and trying to find things to do with their time. It
         | may be a sign of baseball fans not being able to go to games
         | (or being scared of it, if they are able) spending their game
         | ticket money on other fun baseball related activities.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | Yes. So much money going into this crap, while actually making
         | real stuff is in decline in the US.
         | 
         | Someone mentioned "The Days of Perky Pat", by Phillip K. Dick,
         | mostly known for "Blade Runner". I found and read that. It's
         | relevant.
        
         | fnord77 wrote:
         | it's weird - collectible markets in everything are getting
         | bubbly. some things even mass produced pocket knives that got
         | discontinued a few years ago are going for exorbitant prices.
         | 
         | it's like the internet/social media is creating some mass
         | hysteria FOMO in everything.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | dawnerd wrote:
           | People were flipping cotton candy grapes. It's insane.
        
             | kenjackson wrote:
             | Man, I've been trying to get these for a couple of years!
        
           | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
           | Well, with cards in particular there was a big fad that went
           | through the largest streamers a couple months ago. They
           | discovered that opening $40k Pokemon boxes hoping for holos
           | was an easy way to get massive views. Then that morphed into
           | edge lord / troll style content of destroying super rare
           | cards. That second part leaves a dirty taste in my mouth as
           | these are insanely wealthy 20 something kids essentially
           | bragging about how they can flippantly destroy something
           | other enthusiasts would be thrilled to even just see at a
           | convention, let alone own.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | I wonder if anyone saved their Beanie Baby collection from
           | the last crash.
        
             | dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote:
             | A good point, I should really dig those out with their
             | clear tag protectors and everything. Are eBay sales on fire
             | again?
        
       | adamfeldman wrote:
       | There are business niches everywhere - I should stop being
       | surprised when one becomes visible.
       | 
       | > But the [sports/trading/collectible] card boom had made the
       | current growth unsustainable. PSA was receiving 500,000 cards
       | every five days, which was more than the company took in every
       | three months before the COVID-19 pandemic started. The number of
       | packages received per month rose from under 18,000 this past
       | November to nearly 30,000 in February, and it eventually caused
       | the system to buckle. In its statement, PSA said the company had
       | grown from 421 employees in January 2020 to 783 this March, still
       | not nearly enough for the surge that has happened over the past
       | 12 months.
        
       | someonehere wrote:
       | I submitted two unopened packs of Garbage Pail Kids from a
       | special set for Universal Monsters (by Super7) to PSA several
       | months ago. I was starting to wonder what happened to them after
       | I started doing GPK inventory in the last couple of weeks. This
       | explains why.
        
       | neaden wrote:
       | This whole collector mania is hurting one of my hobbies. Namely
       | the Legacy format in Magic: The Gathering. So the idea for this
       | format is that all the different sets of MTG cards are legal,
       | though some specific cards are banned. Well back in the 90s
       | Wizards made a promise to early collectors they would not reprint
       | certain cards, creating what is now known as the Reserved List.
       | Unfortunately for Legacy, pretty much every Legacy deck requires
       | at least some of these Reserved List cards. For most of the
       | formats history, this was expensive, but manageable. However now
       | the value of many of these format staples has shot through the
       | roof, putting it out of the financial reach of a huge selection
       | of the player base when it was already considered to be
       | expensive.
        
         | coldpie wrote:
         | Since you're interested in playing, not collecting, is there a
         | reason you can't just use proxies?
        
           | neaden wrote:
           | Stores can choose to allow proxies, but they are incentivized
           | by Wizards to run a certain number of sanctioned events and
           | report attendance, and events that allow proxies can't be
           | sanctioned. People will play with proxies for testing
           | purposes, but for Friday Night Magic you are expected to have
           | legitimate cards.
        
             | willcipriano wrote:
             | A small loophole, language doesn't count so you can
             | sometimes find cheaper foreign cards online. That's modern
             | more than legacy though.
        
             | coldpie wrote:
             | Sounds like the problem isn't collectors so much as
             | whatever incentives Wizards is setting up, then (along with
             | Wizards's refusal to reprint the cards).
        
               | glaring wrote:
               | Perhaps I'm just uninformed about the business model of
               | trading card games like MTG, but don't they need to set
               | these rules for game stores to incentivize players to
               | actually buy real cards to play with? Sure, not every
               | player participates in tournaments like these, but I
               | imagine there is a non-negligible amount of money spent
               | by dedicated players who want to keep up with the
               | competition when new cards release.
        
         | blacktriangle wrote:
         | Have you looked into Pioneer? It's my new favorite formate by
         | far. It avoids much of the degenerate combos that exist in
         | legacy and even modern, yet has some crazy amount of depth. But
         | most importantly, NO FETCHLANDS! You don't realize how much
         | time and energy every deck constantly fetching takes up until
         | you play without them.
        
           | neaden wrote:
           | Unfortunately I enjoy the degenerate combos and brainstorm
           | shenanigans to much to let them go.
        
         | mtalantikite wrote:
         | So what you're saying is I probably should go dig out the boxes
         | of MTG cards I have from being a kid in the mid-90s? I haven't
         | thought about those in decades!
        
       | chmod600 wrote:
       | I've wondered about the asymmetry of information someone finding
       | a bunch of cards in the garage. Maybe worth a lot, but would cost
       | a lot just to find out. A collector could just bid on bulk cards,
       | but how would they know it's not picked clean of the good ones?
       | 
       | So is the value essentially zero?
        
         | dawnerd wrote:
         | > A collector could just bid on bulk cards, but how would they
         | know it's not picked clean of the good ones?
         | 
         | Lots of trust. A good collector will glance through it and
         | determine if it's something they want to take on. Those bulk
         | sets are usually sold cheap enough that it's worth the risk.
         | 
         | I've sold a few sets and made clear each time that I'd an eBay
         | seller and glanced through them but didn't have time to really
         | dig in.
         | 
         | If you're just blinding buying lots online though you're gonna
         | get screwed.
        
         | DivisionSol wrote:
         | To describe a microcosm of this line of thinking, let's take
         | Pokemon cards. Packs containing a (foil/holo) card weigh more.
         | A sealed box of packs is theoretically a gold mine. But how do
         | you establish that the presealed box wasn't raided and
         | resealed? A whole system of trusty discoverers and buyers play
         | hand in hand.
         | 
         | Individual packs will always be looked at with doubt, since
         | they've probably been weighed and sorted.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | runnr_az wrote:
       | Not into the card world at all, but I recently watched a baseball
       | card investor / dealer's explanation on YouTube... pretty
       | interesting:
       | https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLroSNu2WrMA9eUAXrbWIhyAQ7...
        
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       (page generated 2021-04-16 22:01 UTC)