[HN Gopher] What the Dunning-Kruger effect is and isn't
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What the Dunning-Kruger effect is and isn't
Author : sanj
Score : 73 points
Date : 2021-04-13 17:55 UTC (5 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.talyarkoni.org)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.talyarkoni.org)
| bitshiftfaced wrote:
| Doesn't seem to be any discussion of Nuhfer's findings, which
| showed that you could recreate the effect with just random data.
| The bias comes from the process of manipulating normalized data:
| https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/vol10/iss1/art4/
| smallnamespace wrote:
| That's not quite true, the article's section on _regression to
| the mean_ [1] largely covers the same territory as Nuhfer's
| article (although Nuhfer never uses that precise phrase).
|
| Random noise is a primary reason that we see regression to the
| mean in most contexts (the exception being actual deterministic
| factors, such as seasonality, the restoring force of a spring,
| etc.)
|
| The chain of reasoning goes like: Random
| noise (Nuhfer) -> can cause regression to mean (covered
| in the article) -> calls into question the Dunning-
| Kruger effect
|
| [1]
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean#Con...
| antman wrote:
| That implies that Dunning and Kruger percieved their work as
| better than it was.
| titzer wrote:
| ...due directly to a lack of understanding of statistics. But
| that just proves it. It's a Catch-22 !?
| jvanderbot wrote:
| This sounds like a confirmation.
|
| "Our results further confirm that experts are more proficient
| in self-assessing their abilities than novices and that women,
| in general, self-assess more accurately than men. The validity
| of interpretations of data depends strongly upon how carefully
| the researchers consider the numeracy that underlies graphical
| presentations and conclusions. Our results indicate that
| carefully measured self-assessments provide valid, measurable
| and valuable information about proficiency"
| bitshiftfaced wrote:
| Confirmation would be if they found that those who were less
| competent tended to overestimate their abilities when
| compared to those who were more competent. They found that
| this was not true. Instead, they found that people tend to
| overestimate their abilities with the same likelihood as when
| underestimating.
| luu wrote:
| > Doesn't seem to be any discussion of Nuhfer's findings . . .
|
| That's an interesting result, but I think it would be pretty
| surprising if your link was discussed since your link is from
| 2017 and the post is from 2010 and doesn't appear to have a
| recent update.
| bitshiftfaced wrote:
| That explains it.
| gnabgib wrote:
| Posted so many times:
|
| - 3 months ago 68 comments
| [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25551624]
|
| - Jan 2020 [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21984435]
|
| - May 2018 [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17069386]
|
| - Aug 2015, 25 comments
| [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10145480]
|
| - Jul 2010, 23 comments
| [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1498136]
|
| - Jul 2010 [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1494732]
|
| - Often referenced in other high-repost DK posts like "Dunning-
| Kruger and other memes" and "Wikipedia: Dunning-Kruger Effect"
| maxerickson wrote:
| The lesson I take from Dunning-Kruger is that self evaluation is
| hard.
| internetslave wrote:
| What's the name for the effect of people always bringing up the
| dunning kruger effect like it's the answer to everything? I can't
| go a day without reading about it
|
| Seems like this and bloom filters. Constantly on HN. Both mostly
| useless
| burnished wrote:
| What if its that thing where when you learn about something it
| seems like its suddenly everywhere, except it was always there,
| you're just noticing it now?
| ctcherry wrote:
| The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon
| Trufa wrote:
| Baader-Meinhof phenomenon :)
| alasdair_ wrote:
| I keep seeing references to the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon
| all over the place lately...
| reducesuffering wrote:
| I'm losing track of all the references to scientist named
| phenomena: Baader-Meinhof, Dunning-Kruger, Gell-Mann
| Amnesia, etc.
| function_seven wrote:
| I like to think of these things as "in the know" retorts.
| Things that the writer appear to think are novel concepts, but
| we've seen them so many times that they're not.
|
| * Dunning-Kruger
|
| * That xkcd 10,000 People comic[0] (Getting meta in my own
| comment!)
|
| * "HR is not your friend"
|
| * "Corporations only goal is to increase share price"
|
| * "You're the product"
|
| I'm sure I could name another dozen or so if I had the
| inclination.
|
| [0] https://xkcd.com/1053/
| fab1an wrote:
| I've always suspected that obsessive interest in the Dunning-
| Kruger effect is following an inverse curve of the effect itself
| :) Graph:
| https://twitter.com/fabianstelzer/status/1253647480966852610
| sharker8 wrote:
| Dunning-Kruger is Impostor Syndrome's evil twin. And it's
| impossible to know which one you may suffer from!
| throwawaytemp27 wrote:
| That's not correct. Dunning-Kruger also accounts for competent
| people underestimating their competence (like impostor
| syndrome).
| jumanjisama wrote:
| Related: This is an interview with David Dunning of Dunning-
| Kruger Effect. I find it highly entertaining and would recommend
| listening just for a few minutes in case it tickles your interest
| too. I've listed a couple of sources of the same podcast, just in
| case.
|
| https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-dunning-on-the-d...
|
| https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL2ZlZWRzLmJsb29tYmV...
| taylorius wrote:
| Does the Dunning-Kruger effect apply to people's knowledge of the
| Dunning-Kruger effect?
| bena wrote:
| Maybe psychology in general.
|
| But yeah, since it's a broadly applicable principle, it should
| apply to itself. In that people who don't understand the
| Dunning-Kruger principle believe they understand it better than
| they do.
| buescher wrote:
| How would you know if you were competent to determine that?
| indymike wrote:
| The only safe answer: I don't feel I have the requisite
| experience to discuss this topic at an expert level.
| bluetwo wrote:
| So there is a Dunning-Kruger effect on the Dunning-Kruger effect?
|
| How meta.
| omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
| sanj, can you add the year to the title?
| notretarded wrote:
| No
| nicolashahn wrote:
| I don't need to read this, I already know all about the Dunning-
| Kruger effect.
| slt2021 wrote:
| people downvote you, but your post is exactly on point!
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