[HN Gopher] Economy is on the cusp of a major boom and economist...
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Economy is on the cusp of a major boom and economists believe it
could last
Author : pseudolus
Score : 22 points
Date : 2021-04-11 11:09 UTC (11 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
| anm89 wrote:
| This sounds pretty technical but I think I can follow. If you let
| people out of their houses to buy stuff, after they couldn't for
| a year, then the economy is going to show growth in the quarter
| you let them out.
|
| They've solved all of economics! Just suppress growth
| intentionally for a while so then when you stop suppressing
| you'll get a couple great quarters!
|
| Its the economics equivalent of a perpetual motion machine
| alpineidyll3 wrote:
| Agreed. This is the type of low information popular press I
| visit HN to avoid...
| imtringued wrote:
| What you described is just the broken window fallacy. The only
| reason it works is because people stop arguing whether to fix
| the window or not. They just fix it. It's purely a
| psychological effect and that is why it will not work twice.
| However, the second order effects are real and they do help the
| economy over the long run even if the original reason is
| flawed.
| shostack wrote:
| I'm personally curious to see how much investment goes to the
| restaurant industry. Despite the sad circumstances that led to
| lots of real estate becoming available, it will mean fresh
| opportunity for a new wave of retail and dining.
|
| I suspect the types of businesses opening will be ones that are
| inherently better adapted to lockdowns and lack of indoor
| dining in case things surge again.
| pharmakom wrote:
| Pick any view of the future and I'm sure you could find some
| economist at some university who is convinced it will happen.
| reducesuffering wrote:
| "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are
| fearful." -Buffett
| ThinkBeat wrote:
| This seems unintuitive to me, but I am far from being an
| economist.
|
| Airlines, hotels, restaurants, airplane makers, brick and mortar
| stores, has had and will have a torrent of bankruptcies as will
| industries connected to them.
|
| I know several European airlines are bankrupt and being kept on
| life support by governments pouring money in.
|
| The number of travelers will not recover in the foreseeable
| future to the pre pandemic numbers.
|
| Let them fail.
|
| The guy behind "Norwegian" (NAS) the airline, quit NAS a while
| back and now he has started a new airline, buying up cheap deals
| on airplanes and airport permits.
|
| Probably a great idea as long as he has enough money to sit on
| those assets for a while.
|
| I dont see how Boeing can survive. If the military contracts are
| large enough perhaps
| tinus_hn wrote:
| Boeing can easily survive if it's deemed too big to fail.
| m0llusk wrote:
| This is primarily based on growth and growth indicators. Since
| the economy took a big hit from the pandemic some level of snap
| back should be expected. This may not be enough for full
| recovery, may not endure. Also, long term demographic and
| interest rate trends are strongly deflationary and whole economic
| sectors are still down to a fraction of previous scales.
|
| Most troubling is the great divide between the wealthy profiting
| from stock market growth while the working poor are lucky to have
| an unsafe workplace to labor in. This is a formula for strife.
| imtringued wrote:
| If inflation picks up the fed will raise interest rates and the
| stock market party will be over within 5 years. Bad companies
| will go and be replaced by good companies.
| nobodyandproud wrote:
| The tech stocks will take a hit, but other industries will see
| growth.
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(page generated 2021-04-11 23:02 UTC)