[HN Gopher] Cosmic rays causing 30k network malfunctions in Japa...
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       Cosmic rays causing 30k network malfunctions in Japan each year
        
       Author : uncleberg
       Score  : 149 points
       Date   : 2021-04-07 09:56 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (mainichi.jp)
 (TXT) w3m dump (mainichi.jp)
        
       | hyko wrote:
       | Is _appeal to cosmic rays_ a candidate for an engineering logical
       | fallacy?
        
       | KWxIUElW8Xt0tD9 wrote:
       | How many are caused by Windows? :-)
        
       | Serenntop wrote:
       | We could reduce the cosmic ray flux by thickening the atmosphere.
       | A small increase in normal air density would give us a
       | significant reduction in cosmic rays. Talk to the terraformers.
       | They've given a lot of thought to how to make air.
        
       | fennecfoxen wrote:
       | > Soft errors occur when the data in an electronic device is
       | corrupted after neutrons, produced when cosmic rays hit oxygen
       | and nitrogen in the earth's atmosphere, collide with the
       | semiconductors within the equipment.
       | 
       | Uhhhhhhh. Neutrons? Doubt goes here. I was pretty sure _charged_
       | particles and ionizing radiation are to blame for messing up your
       | electronics.
        
         | fennecs wrote:
         | Supposedly yes neutrons [0 they give a link under causes]. I
         | guess neutrons are more penetrating than protons, can pass
         | through chips/buildings etc more easily, and even though weak
         | interaction, it ends up more significant contribution than
         | protons etc that interact more easily.
         | 
         | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_error
        
         | yummypaint wrote:
         | One of the ways high energy neutrons interact is by scattering
         | protons elastically. Their masses are essentially the same so
         | the neutron can transfer its momentum very efficiently. These
         | scattered protons (perhaps from plastic in the packaging etc)
         | are then the charged particles that flip bits. These protons
         | are generally lower energy than cosmic ray protons, which means
         | they deposit MORE energy per distance traveled, so they can be
         | worse than cosmics directly.
        
         | zaarn wrote:
         | Neutron radiation is in fact ionizing radiation.
         | 
         | It is much more dangerous than other types, as it readily
         | passes most materials, yet dosage is absorbed. Absorbed
         | neutrons cause particles to (almost always) become radioactive,
         | which causes havoc as those new radioactive particles decay.
         | 
         | The other common types of radiation (alpha, beta and gamma) do
         | not cause things to become radioactive (usually), instead they
         | are a threat if the actually radioactive material accumulates
         | as dust on your skin (for example).
         | 
         | Neutron radiation is much more dangerous because it seeds
         | radioactivity deep in the body, so you can't clean it off by
         | washing or waiting for the absorbed particles to be flushed
         | back out of the body naturally within a few days.
        
       | notum wrote:
       | Cosmic rays are, or rather were, the reason why manufactures
       | avoid shipping high end cameras by plane, cosmic rays kill pixels
       | in imaging sensors: https://youtu.be/98FZ8C6HneE?t=479
       | 
       | It's also the reason why all ISS footage has dead pixels on it.
        
         | andy_ppp wrote:
         | Very interesting, so should people who travel with photography
         | equipment take night flights if possible?
        
           | notum wrote:
           | Rays hit our planet regardless of Sun, if anything it might
           | block a few. They are caused by ultra-energetic cosmic
           | events, such as star collisions, black hole feeding cycles.
           | 
           | Cosmic rays are just very potent photons, capable of knocking
           | out electrons from an atom (meaning they are ionizing)
           | causing havoc in precision electronics and, well, our DNA.
        
             | moftz wrote:
             | Cosmic rays can also be high energy ions. Most of the
             | photons come from the sun and the ions can come from
             | outside the universe and the sun.
        
             | andy_ppp wrote:
             | What is the tolerance for cosmic rays for a human... I ask
             | because on the journey to Mars you'll get quite a few I
             | guess and also on the planet's surface after you're there
             | with such a thin atmosphere?
        
               | btkramer9 wrote:
               | As far as cancer rates go I've heard it's about as bad as
               | taking up smoking cigarettes. Which is not great but
               | doesn't seem like a show stopper
        
               | tinco wrote:
               | This is actually a thing people are criticizing Musk for,
               | he is being accused of sending people to Mars with
               | insufficient shielding against cosmic rays.
               | 
               | In my opinion it's a bit silly argument, as there's a
               | whole bunch of other risks and quality of life sacrifices
               | made by the persons who are going to undertake that
               | journey. Some raised chance of cancer is probably the
               | least of their worries.
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | He can't send people to Mars yet so how are people
               | accusing him of sending people to mars with insufficient
               | shielding? There are limits to criticism of Musk one
               | would think.
        
               | typon wrote:
               | Humans going to Mars should expect to never come back
        
               | andi999 wrote:
               | But at least they should reasonably expect to arrive.
        
               | bostonsre wrote:
               | Anyone know what expectations Columbus or other
               | expeditions had about survival/risk?
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | iso1631 wrote:
               | For a normal NASA flight
               | 
               | "NASA told Business Insider it estimates there's a
               | 1-in-276 chance the flight could be fatal and a 1-in-60
               | chance that some problem would cause the mission to fail
               | (but not kill the crew)"
               | 
               | That's fairly low - feels like the age of sail would be
               | far higher -- Columbus's second voyage alone had about 25
               | deaths just from scurvy. His first voyage was only about
               | 90 crew.
               | 
               | But remember that life wasn't exactly easy on land
               | either.
        
               | tinco wrote:
               | A lot less than an astronaut has when going to Mars for
               | sure. We at least know how far away Mars is exactly, and
               | what obstacles lie in the way, and what inhabitants it
               | has. They just got on a boat, and pray for fair wind and
               | good weather so they might reach india, and thank god
               | there was a whole other continent in between.
        
               | andi999 wrote:
               | I remember vaguely that if there would have been a sun
               | eruption at the lunar mission the team might have died. I
               | tried a while ago to find a good source on that though.
               | If this were true, forget Mars.
        
               | Sanzig wrote:
               | That's actually a fascinating question! It turns out we
               | don't know enough to answer one way or another.
               | 
               | The model commonly used in radiation protection to assess
               | cancer risk with respect to radiation dose is called the
               | Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model [1]. The model critically
               | assumes that (1) total radiation dose is the only
               | predictor of cancer risk, and (2) _any_ radiation
               | exposure results in an increased cancer risk.
               | 
               | This model works at high absorbed doses, however, its
               | applicability is highly controversial when used with low
               | abosorbed doses or with relatively high absorbed doses
               | that occur over a long period of time (ie: low dose
               | _rate_ ).
               | 
               | The thing is, the human body has built-in defense
               | mechanisms against cancer such as DNA repair. There is a
               | good body of evidence that small doses and low-rate
               | exposures do not result in cancer risk (ie: there is a
               | threshold absorbed dose and probably also a threshold
               | dose rate), but the model does not account for this.
               | 
               | This is particularly problematic when trying to assess
               | excess mortality from things such as radiological
               | accidents: when you multiply the small LNT-predicted risk
               | for a low dose times a very large population, you end up
               | with a lot of cancers. This is one of the reasons you'll
               | see estimates for deaths from the Chernobyl accident vary
               | by orders of magnitude.
               | 
               | It's also problematic when assessing something like a
               | Mars mission: yes, the astronauts would get large
               | cumulative doses, but the dose _rate_ is pretty low over
               | most of the mission (other than during high dose rate
               | solar events where they would need radiation shielding).
               | How much of an elevated cancer risk is it actually?
               | Nobody is quite sure.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_no-
               | threshold_model
        
           | foxyv wrote:
           | Cosmic rays are not exclusively associated with the sun.
           | There are a lot of Galactic Cosmic Rays still. It's pretty
           | much leftovers from supernovae, black hole mergers, neutron
           | stars, accretion disks and such. But yeah, at night would be
           | better.
           | 
           | Edit: Correction, there is very little difference and fewer
           | cosmic rays during the day. Source:
           | https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0105005.pdf
        
         | woodruffw wrote:
         | This is a fascinating claim (and video), but I can't find a ton
         | of corroborating evidence for it: searches for "digital camera
         | cosmic rays" bring up (1) considerations for cameras in space (
         | _much_ higher background radiation levels than a commercial
         | flight), and (2) consumer photography forums where people are
         | discussing that 2011 talk. Some of the latter seem to think
         | that Kodak has /had a vested interest in spreading fear around
         | digital photography, since their analog division was imploding
         | at the time.
        
         | jmcqk6 wrote:
         | Does anyone know how this works with our space-based
         | telescopes? Or even our mountain top observatories? Surely if
         | it's this crazy, they have to deal with that as well?
        
           | supernova87a wrote:
           | Well one thing they also do is that pretty much any desired
           | image is taken multiple times/multiple exposures, and
           | multiple offset positions in close succession to remove
           | exactly such artifacts. The images are then stacked, etc.
           | 
           | So this allows removal of effects that do not correlate with
           | what is physically should be in the image, but is an artifact
           | of the sensor, image system, etc:
           | 
           | -- sensor artifacts: dead pixels, flat field irregularity,
           | pixel response variations, electronic noise
           | 
           | -- imaging system issues: optical problems, lens/mirror
           | defects
           | 
           | -- and then exactly what's being discussed here: cosmic rays,
           | transient objects (satellite tracks!)
        
           | reportingsjr wrote:
           | Yes, the electronics, including imaging sensors are all
           | radiation hardened.
           | 
           | This can involve things such as using digital circuits that
           | are radiation resistant (e.g. look up radiation resistant
           | flip flop). Using multiple computers running the same thing
           | that all "vote" for the correct result, so if one computer
           | has an error from radiation you don't suffer. Using
           | semiconductors that are more resistant to radiation (larger
           | band gaps mean more energy required to flip a bit).
           | 
           | Physical shielding is key as well. The infrared imager on the
           | Cassini probe had a case made out of tantalum, as tantalum is
           | a very dense material which prevents a lot of radiation from
           | going through it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | jstrieb wrote:
       | This reminds me of Bitsquatting, which is like typosquatting but
       | uses domains one bit-flip away instead of one mistyped letter
       | away.[0] In a small experiment, for some popular domains, the
       | author reportedly got a lot of hits.
       | 
       | In the associated DEFCON talk, the author notes that even if you
       | use ECC memory, it's unlikely that the DRAM in your hard drives
       | does too.[1]
       | 
       | 0: http://dinaburg.org/bitsquatting.html
       | 
       | 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WcHsT97suU
        
       | stuartcw wrote:
       | I have always wondered whether new ideas are seeded by cosmic
       | rays disturbing neurons in the brain..
        
         | gotostatement wrote:
         | seems too low-level, no? the temporary excitation of a single
         | neuron would most likely just fade away into the equilibrating
         | process of the brain
        
           | CameronNemo wrote:
           | >In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive
           | dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in
           | one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in
           | large differences in a later state.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
        
             | gotostatement wrote:
             | Is there reason to believe the brain is chaotic on that
             | level? The reason I doubt it because any stable biological
             | system has as one of its primary tasks - if not its #1
             | primary task - to maintain equilibrium. Otherwise it would
             | collapse into chaos due to the inherent imprecision of
             | molecular phenomena. So I would be very surprised if you
             | could stimulate a neuron - not even a neuron, but an
             | electron inside a neuron - and cause something as complex
             | as an idea to form. More likely it would be equilibrated
             | away
        
         | deepsun wrote:
         | That'd mean people underground (or under thick layer of
         | concrete, like in skyscrapers) are not creative.
        
           | supernova87a wrote:
           | But grad students are often sent to work in the basement, and
           | yet they need to have the most ideas!
        
           | moistbar wrote:
           | I guess you could say they'd be...
           | 
           | Living under a rock.
           | 
           | Yeah, yeah, I'm leaving. Put the weapons away...
        
           | dleslie wrote:
           | Sounds like we have a hypothesis and a test environment; now
           | we just need a test for creativity and we can start doing
           | science!
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | adenozine wrote:
         | That's actually mind blowing to think about. Thanks for sharing
         | this.
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | > That's actually mind blowing to think about.
           | 
           | That would be too many cosmic rays.
           | 
           | And the "flipped the wrong neuron" possibility is much
           | scarier in my mind. And probably in everyone else's brain as
           | well.
        
         | AlanSE wrote:
         | I suspect that modern processors are closer to quantum limits
         | than what neurons are.
        
       | sosuke wrote:
       | This is a great place to ask. Are our brains susceptible to this
       | kind of interference and if so do you think the structure evolved
       | to handle some corruption of this kind?
        
       | dole wrote:
       | Cosmic bitflip is like the Godwin's Law of BOFH excuses.
        
       | neonological wrote:
       | https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/bit-f...
       | 
       | A more comprehensive an interesting take on the cosmic ray
       | phenomenon. It's actually a global issue that is accounted for in
       | certain electronics.
        
       | arbitrage wrote:
       | Ahh, the ol' Cisco get-out-of-jail-free card.
       | 
       | Headline would be more accurate if it said "30K unidentified bugs
       | blamed on unverifiable phenomenon each year in Japan".
        
         | 1-6 wrote:
         | I'm speculating here but it would be more likely that software
         | bugs cause more errors than cosmic rays.
        
           | dnautics wrote:
           | Found the rust programmer.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | The rust programmer is the one out there ending that phrase
             | with "and this a problem that must be solved".
             | 
             | ...
             | 
             | Well, the rust programmer and the nuclear engineer,
             | possibly.
        
       | 1-6 wrote:
       | As we move to 5nm chips, I wonder if there's a greater likelihood
       | of errors from background radiation.
        
       | shiftpgdn wrote:
       | Kind of a fun ancedote: In "the old days" when you'd run a server
       | room in your office we had a very large HPC cluster + a
       | significant amount of storage and other one off servers on the
       | top floor of a mid rise office building. I eventually moved it
       | all to a former nuclear fallout facility where our systems were
       | three floors down and under a gigantic pool of water. Error rates
       | and random crashes fell off IMMEDIATELY. I believe Microsoft
       | reported similar findings with their submerged data center.
        
         | sandworm101 wrote:
         | Wonderful. Yet another reason for the IT office to be relegated
         | to a sub-basement.
        
           | yunohn wrote:
           | Why the whole IT office? Just the hardware running the
           | software, not the humans who develop it.
        
             | sandworm101 wrote:
             | Most offices/businesses have nothing to do with software
             | development. Most IT shop are in basements, or at least on
             | lower levels near the core servers and other infrastructure
             | they manage. "The IT Crowd" was a stereotype but was still
             | based on the reality of most businesses. I have never seen
             | or even heard of an IT shop with a skylight. Even windows
             | are rare.
        
             | wmichelin wrote:
             | I feel like OP was joking
        
         | lolthishuman wrote:
         | And people still think the sun is nuclear. Ha!
        
         | digikata wrote:
         | A reduction in floor and building vibration might have
         | contributed too?
        
           | oconnor663 wrote:
           | Or for example, old cables and improperly installed cooling
           | fans might tend to get fixed during a move. Hard to know for
           | sure.
        
             | shiftpgdn wrote:
             | Well yeah, that's why it's presented as an anecdote. :)
        
         | TTPrograms wrote:
         | Can you give OOM of any of the improvements? Eg. crash rates
         | halved?
        
         | kevin_nisbet wrote:
         | Yea, when looking into these myself I did float in conversation
         | that we'd need build a giant pool over our data centers. It was
         | more of a joke though and never went anywhere.
         | 
         | Although our error rate was more like 1-2 per week on the
         | equipment I was looking at.
        
         | brobinson wrote:
         | I have no experience with tracking this kind of thing. How do
         | you do it, what kind of analytics/tracking program is used,
         | etc.?
        
         | wang_li wrote:
         | Sun's UltraSPARC II CPU modules were claimed to be particularly
         | susceptible to cosmic rays circa 2000.
        
           | phonon wrote:
           | https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2000/1113/6613068a.html?sh=28e.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://www.computerworld.com/article/2584471/q-a--
           | mcnealy-d...
           | 
           | http://www.cedix.de/VorlesMirror/Band1/UnsafeAtAnySpeed.pdf
        
           | p_l wrote:
           | Not so much susceptible as "came with their own radioactive
           | source"
        
         | suifbwish wrote:
         | Awesome. Next time clients call about their services being down
         | I am totally using this one.
        
       | belter wrote:
       | They have to do two things :-)
       | 
       | 1) Use ECC memory
       | 
       | 2) Go underground
       | 
       | "One experiment measured the soft error rate at the sea level to
       | be 5,950 failures in time (FIT = failures per billion hours) per
       | DRAM chip. When the same test setup was moved to an underground
       | vault, shielded by over 50 feet (15 m) of rock that effectively
       | eliminated all cosmic rays, zero soft errors were recorded.[6] In
       | this test, all other causes of soft errors are too small to be
       | measured, compared to the error rate caused by cosmic rays."
       | 
       | "Soft Errors"
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_error#Cosmic_rays_creatin...
        
         | ourcat wrote:
         | A 'Faraday Cage' should also help.
         | 
         | edit: No idea why the downvotes. Faraday cages have long been
         | thought of as a way to protect electrical devices from the
         | electromagnetic waves which can be a result of solar flares.
         | 
         | I even chatted to someone from NASA's Solar Dynamics
         | Observatory about it in the past.
        
           | belter wrote:
           | Because a Faraday Cage would make it worst not better:
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1fsiv9/how_effe.
           | ..
        
           | titzer wrote:
           | Cosmic rays are not electromagnetic waves. They are highly
           | energetic particles, like protons and naked helium nuclei.
        
         | raisedbyninjas wrote:
         | 5950 failures per billion hours is approximately equal to 1
         | failure every 19 years.
        
           | nightcracker wrote:
           | And if you have a datacenter with 200 machines, that's
           | roughly once a month.
        
         | contravariant wrote:
         | That's a bit more than just 'go underground'. I've seen people
         | dig for cables but I've never seen them dig a hole 15m deep.
        
         | tyingq wrote:
         | Polyethylene is supposedly good at blocking cosmic rays. It
         | would be funny to me if the fix was just a drop ceiling full of
         | old grocery bags.
        
           | robbmorganf wrote:
           | Have a source? That seems like an awesome way to recycle
           | grocery bags.
        
             | 1-6 wrote:
             | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01707-2
        
             | supernova87a wrote:
             | Water is also a good protector. And the polyethylene is
             | actually a proxy for "hydrogen atoms". The reason is that
             | dense hydrogen has a lot of protons to interact with the
             | incoming radiation.
             | 
             | But unfortunately plastic bags are not dense polyethylene.
             | You would kind of need full blocks of solid polyethylene...
        
               | teachtwolearn wrote:
               | You can make solid polyethylene out of plastic bags by
               | pressing them in a mold heated to ~100-150C.
               | 
               | But it's quite flammable, so you might not want to use it
               | as a building material.
        
             | tyingq wrote:
             | The peer comment posted a source that has lots of
             | references.
             | 
             | Though most of them are tests in space, where I assume the
             | thickness requirements would rule out grocery bags. I am
             | curious how thick a layer of HDPE you would need on earth
             | to make any notable difference.
        
               | ortusdux wrote:
               | That linked nature paper seems to indicate 10g/cm^2 for a
               | 50% reduction. A standard shopping bag is about 5g, so
               | you would need roughly 20k bags/m^2, or ~2k bags/ft^2. At
               | 0.9g/cm^3, that would be roughly 11cm of solid
               | polyethylene
        
               | tyingq wrote:
               | Ah, so bags are out, as is practically the ceiling. But
               | cut sheet HDPE is easy to find, so tiles atop your
               | machine would be relatively cheap and easy.
        
             | wyldfire wrote:
             | Doesn't sound like that solution is plenum-rated.
        
           | 1-6 wrote:
           | Nice, I'm going to line the rooftops with Tyvek now.
        
         | kevin_nisbet wrote:
         | > 1) Use ECC memory
         | 
         | Not exactly. When I was in telco, where I had this problem was
         | in FPGA's, we had all ECC memory and I never linked any
         | problems to bit flips in RAM. But as I remember, the FPGA's we
         | had were using a type of SRAM cell, but because it's not a
         | memory module the FPGA programming could bit flip. So the
         | product had a checksum function, that read back the program on
         | a cycle and reset itself if the program no longer matched the
         | checksum. So we would see 1-2 crashes / restarts per week in
         | our FPGAs that we believe were bit flips.
         | 
         | We then ran an anlysis on any of these that higher than
         | expected error rates to try and identify actually bad hardware
         | and replace them.
         | 
         | I think the vendor eventually came up with a way to reprogram
         | the FPGA without just crashing and rebooting the entire board.
        
           | belter wrote:
           | Interesting and makes sense. Do you have any additional
           | references you would suggest and particularly in the context
           | of FPGAs ?
           | 
           | Would you say this quick reference is a good overview ? https
           | ://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/programmable/us/en/pdf...
        
             | kevin_nisbet wrote:
             | Sorry, I should have mentioned this was quite a few years
             | ago, so I'm very out of date. So I don't have any known
             | good references that are handy. That link you shared seems
             | pretty good on a quick scan through and inline with what I
             | remember, I'm pretty sure I dug up similar resources for
             | other vendors, including one I think was looking at
             | satellite hardware.
        
           | viraptor wrote:
           | Compaq/HP handled this with many redundant resources / cores:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tandem_Computers
        
           | roamingryan wrote:
           | Many modern FPGAs now include dedicated logic for config SRAM
           | "scrubbing." This logic continuously checks config frame
           | checksums to identify upsets. These can then be fixed in
           | real-time either using the error correction properties of the
           | checksum technique, or from the non-volatile config memory
           | (typically NOR flash). It's also important to note that only
           | a subset of the SRAM config bits are critical for a given
           | application. Usually this is a small percentage of the
           | overall array.
           | 
           | https://www.xilinx.com/support/documentation/application_not.
           | ..
           | 
           | If even higher levels of reliability are needed, there are
           | rad-hard-by-design FPGA families (e.g. Xilinx Virtex 5QV).
           | These have a special config SRAM cell that has more charge
           | storage sites than a conventional SRAM cell. It is less area
           | efficient than a conventional SRAM cell, but geometry of the
           | charge storage sites ensures that a single cosmic ray can't
           | flip the state of a majority of them. Essentially the cell
           | can self-correct, no scrubbing required.
        
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