[HN Gopher] "I'll Finish It This Week" and Other Lies
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       "I'll Finish It This Week" and Other Lies
        
       Author : lnwlebjel
       Score  : 285 points
       Date   : 2021-04-06 00:17 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | thrower123 wrote:
       | If you can escape from the constant firefighting of interrupt-
       | driven work, you can finish things on a predictable schedule.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, you log on to work on X, and it turns out customer
       | A had a sev 1 outage, and youve got to scramble. Maybe once that
       | is resolved, you can get back to X tomorrow. Except tomorrow,
       | customer B reports some other bug, and you're dragged into
       | triaging and reproducing that, while its still fresh. Now it's
       | Wednesday, and you get one day to work on X. Thursday rolls
       | around, and your day gets chewed up by another handful of
       | meetings and status checks with A and B, also C came in with
       | something. On Friday, you're worn out and reeling, and you
       | realize project X never really got off the ground.
       | 
       | Rinse and repeat until things just fall through the cracks.
        
       | tpoacher wrote:
       | Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can
       | be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your
       | own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project.
       | 
       | Do you:
       | 
       | a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you
       | 4 weeks instead of 2?
       | 
       | b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays
       | when the deadline passes?
       | 
       | or
       | 
       | c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, then cut corners to
       | deliver a finished project in two weeks, but one that is so
       | lacking that someone (possibly not you) will need at least 4 more
       | weeks undoing and fixing stuff at a later stage?
       | 
       | (Note: I have NEVER seen anyone do 'a'. It's usually a creative
       | hybrid between a and b)
        
         | kwhitefoot wrote:
         | Not quite what you are asking but related: Many years ago my
         | boss handed me the notes that he had made in a meeting with a
         | customer and asked me to work out a project plan to create the
         | hardware, drawings, software, etc.
         | 
         | I did that and gave it to him. The next day he called me into
         | his office and told me that he and the customer had already
         | agreed a delivery date and that I had to edit the plan so that
         | it would be delivered on that date. That date was two months
         | earlier than my estimate, 20% less elapsed time.
         | 
         | I tried to argue that we didn't have the necessary resources
         | (software developers, hardware development, circuit board
         | design and manufacturing, prototyping, etc.) to do it any
         | faster but he insisted. So in the absence of any way to cut the
         | time in a way that really made sense I just cut about 20% off
         | each of the items on critical path of the Gantt chart and gave
         | it back to him.
         | 
         | He seemed happy then but he was much less happy when we
         | delivered on time and under budget according to my original
         | estimate.
        
         | torgard wrote:
         | I go with a) every time. I would find anything else to be
         | unprofessional.
         | 
         | I don't "effectively suck", I disagree with them on the timing.
         | I'll explain my reasoning, and if they cannot accept that, then
         | it's out of my hands; they have chosen to cut corners.
        
           | b0afc375b5 wrote:
           | I go with a) as well, and I add a very generous time
           | allowance on top of my estimate. But you can't really do much
           | when you're told to 'get it done this week'. First to go out
           | the window is TDD, of course.
        
         | Foobar8568 wrote:
         | I always do a, and that's why people think that I am slow and I
         | don't have a great career...But at least I deliver stuff that
         | works.
         | 
         | At my previous client, I had a "IT supplier team lead" that
         | kept promising stuff delivered in x days even tho that x months
         | later, the stuff wasn't working. He was seen as a god. Nobody
         | called on his bullshit but me, later on, management was telling
         | me that I wasn't a team player, good stuff.
        
           | tpoacher wrote:
           | yes, alas, that's exactly my point. The only peoply who are
           | conscientious enough to go for (a) are also typically the
           | same people who will pick up all the bullshit from people
           | doing (b) and (c).
        
         | magicalhippo wrote:
         | d) Explain to my boss why I think it will take four weeks
         | rather than two.
         | 
         | We'll then have a discussion and come up with a hopefully more
         | realistic estimate. This might include finding a different
         | solution to the problem.
         | 
         | Sometimes it has to be done in two weeks, and then the issue is
         | what we can do in two weeks. Other times it's just a bigger
         | problem than what my boss assumed. And yet again maybe I'm
         | overthinking things and it can actually be done in two weeks.
        
         | ohgodplsno wrote:
         | > Note: I have NEVER seen anyone do 'a'. It's usually a
         | creative hybrid between a and b)
         | 
         | So, you've never seen someone being a professional ? I've told
         | my boss plenty of times his estimates are wrong, and that it
         | will take longer. It's my job to know how long things take. If
         | my boss thinks it can be done shorter, he better 1/ have the
         | same work experience that I do and 2/ do it on his own.
        
         | blablabla123 wrote:
         | > a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take
         | you 4 weeks instead of 2?
         | 
         | Assuming the company hired me because they had a gap to fill
         | that I fit in and also that I delivered so far in reasonable
         | velocity: if it's really so pressing yet unpredictable to
         | deliver, I'd take the time to analyze the task and explain the
         | boss what parts would take how long and why. If it's a good
         | boss, he or she will either prioritize sub-tasks or talk to the
         | other stakeholders and change requirements, i.e. adapt
         | requirements to reality.
         | 
         | If you work for a good boss/team/company, the effect afterwards
         | will be that everybody will be more happy. Also on the long-
         | term the project will be successful. So if making such a
         | statement implies "you effectively suck", consider changing
         | workplaces because this is unreasonable and even toxic.
         | (Although even the most toxic places will give in if you have
         | the patience and confidence to explain. If not, they'll
         | definitely make sure to blame it on you.)
        
         | zepolen wrote:
         | d) Tell your boss it will take 6 weeks, deliver in 4
        
           | pmiller2 wrote:
           | I see you're from the Montgomery Scott school of estimation.
        
         | koonsolo wrote:
         | Old timer here, and I struggled with this when I was younger.
         | But I figured it out by working at a lot of different places. I
         | always get great reviews and am considered a highly valued
         | programmer, so you can depend on this advice :).
         | 
         | When your manager (never say "boss", because you are your own
         | boss, they are the manager) says "2 weeks", at that point it's
         | their responsibility. So as long as you don't say "I can do it
         | in 2 weeks", it remains their responsibility.
         | 
         | So an easy way to respond is "I'll do my best", or "I'll see
         | what I can do". In your head, you say "YOU said 2 weeks, NOT
         | me. So if it takes longer, it's YOUR fault, not MINE". And then
         | you work on the project like any other project. It's not about
         | you being bad at your job, it's about the person being a bad
         | manager. Keep the manager up to date on the progress.
         | 
         | Next step is to educate your manager. Don't fall in the trap of
         | making estimates in 5 seconds on the spot. In this case, you
         | could respond "2 weeks? I don't know, I haven't made an
         | estimate on that." This way you indicate that YOU are the
         | person who should do the estimate, not them. You could follow
         | up with "Do you want me to make a detailed estimate?". If no,
         | then indicate "ok, I'll see what I can do" as above. If yes,
         | make a realistic deadline (NOT estimate, see below).
         | 
         | Bad managers come with all kinds of tricks to pressure you,
         | like for example "The customer expects this to be ready in 2
         | weeks". At that point, you really need to educate them and show
         | how reality works:
         | 
         | "Wow, I hope for your sake that you made a correct estimate. I
         | didn't estimate the work, so I have no clue if this is
         | possible. But you might be in a lot of trouble when you made
         | the wrong call here". See what I did here? Managers try to push
         | problems on you, don't let this happen. Always make it clear
         | that the responsibility is always in their camp as long as you
         | didn't make the estimate. If the 2 week deadline is not met,
         | it's their fault of not asking you for a proper estimate in the
         | first place, secondly for making a wrong estimate themselves,
         | and never because you are bad at your job and should work
         | overtime. Don't let bad management be your fault, because it
         | isn't.
         | 
         | So when you can make estimates yourself, make sure you know the
         | difference between an estimate and a deadline. Most managers
         | think it's the same.
         | 
         | An estimate is "I think it takes around 4 weeks", which
         | basically means "Best case it takes 3 (which it never will),
         | and something might go wrong so it could be 6 weeks". A
         | deadline always has a buffer built in. It's a worst case
         | scenario. Your manager will ask for an "estimate", but 99% of
         | the time it will be a deadline. So make sure your
         | "estimate"=deadline includes a buffer of worst case scenario.
         | If you estimate 4 weeks, they will promise it to the customer
         | in 4 weeks. This is wrong of course, since there is no buffer.
         | So say 6.
         | 
         | And this is how you keep your sanity as a developer. Educate
         | your managers, because a lot of them are not really
         | knowledgeable and experienced in dealing with proper software
         | development.
        
         | ClumsyPilot wrote:
         | I think enough folks have covered the fact that you should be
         | able to discuss how long things take with your boss.
         | 
         | However i want to make a point about cutting corners - in my
         | experience, its a jusdgement call on what's essential, and
         | whihc corners can be cut. I've seen engineers spend loads of
         | time on things that in the end did not matter, etc. So I would
         | say that's an inportant conversarion to have.
        
         | wernercd wrote:
         | d) Tell your boss what can be done realistically in 2 weeks and
         | what timeframe it will take to do the full "Project".
         | 
         | You have two things... a request and a time frame. If they
         | don't match? Admitting you suck isn't a realistic option. It's
         | a lie to start with and it helps no one. Lying to your boss
         | ("Sure, I'll get what I said would take 4 months done in two
         | weeks") helps no one either.
         | 
         | Helps if you have some "street cred" to back up your claims...
         | and you won't get that by saying "I suck" or "Sure thing boss".
        
         | kumaranv wrote:
         | I have seen the effects of not saying 'a'. People even asked to
         | leave the company because of simply agreeing to finish as
         | asked. When we agree to it, our head will roll unless the
         | company never cares about missing deadlines.
         | 
         | Another approach which I follow nowadays is, agree but tell
         | them that most probably I will miss the deadline.
        
         | irjustin wrote:
         | Where's D where we talk it out and why we currently disagree on
         | the expectation difference?
         | 
         | Isn't that how it's supposed to be?
        
           | wccrawford wrote:
           | For me, it's not even that. I've never had a boss _tell_ me
           | what it 'll take. I've always been asked, even though I've
           | repeatedly told them I'm _horrible_ at estimates. Thought
           | sometimes they 'll suggest a timeframe, hopefully.
           | 
           | When I tell them that they were too optimistic, their usual
           | reply is that I need to get back to them as soon as anything
           | changes for the worse. Otherwise, truck along and do it.
           | 
           | If I say 'nope, 4 weeks' right off the bat, there's usually a
           | step where they consider if it'll be worth it in that time
           | (or possibly longer) and they tell me when to ditch it and
           | move on, if it's really going to be that long.
           | 
           | And it happens sometimes, even on projects that I really
           | wanted to do.
           | 
           | The opposite happens, too, though. Sometimes they think it'll
           | take longer than I think, and I tell them in that situation,
           | too.
        
         | conradludgate wrote:
         | At my job, our PMs don't suggest any time frames, they ask all
         | the devs for the expected effort instead. More discussion and
         | agreement then by the people actually qualified to say. Of
         | course we do still have some deadlines but that's also not in
         | the PMs control as they're external factors
        
           | TameAntelope wrote:
           | Yeah, the most helpful answer is a, but with a follow up
           | explaining what you can do in two weeks, and you let the boss
           | decide if that's good enough, if there's more resources
           | available, or if you should work on something else with that
           | time instead.
        
         | pdimitar wrote:
         | d) Tell my boss that THEY effectively suck at estimating and it
         | will take 4 weeks. If they want less, I'll not sign under
         | unprofessional work and they can get somebody else to do it.
        
           | walterlb wrote:
           | My manager sometimes makes commitments to stakeholders on the
           | spot when he agrees to take on the work, without consulting
           | with the developer (me, in these cases). Often the
           | requirements are not even clear yet.
           | 
           | It's not comfortable to do, but I will jump in and veto his
           | commitments right there if they are clearly not attainable.
           | 
           | The stakeholders tend to be accepting of the fact that things
           | are more complex to implement than just: "make the software
           | do X", but my (technical) manager always seems a bit baffled.
           | In the long run, I know he values this about me, but it
           | frustrates me to no end.
        
             | pdimitar wrote:
             | Yeah, I get that blind enthusiasm sometimes but I've
             | learned to control it. I show enthusiasm on my face -- and
             | it's genuine! -- but I don't rush into promising. I found
             | that to be the best balance because (a) people like it when
             | you genuinely care and (b) you still don't come off as a
             | pushover that accepts any demands for budget and schedule
             | on the spot.
        
         | xxs wrote:
         | 0 - your boss is a smart one and actually knows how to use Pi
         | properly as an estimation multiplier.
         | 
         | About your honest part - your boss should really have a lot
         | better estimation of your skills (or he sucks at that too). I
         | suppose you're preoccupied with their opinion of you rather
         | than getting the job completed.
        
         | arethuza wrote:
         | As someone who has been in the "boss" role on and off for a
         | long time I have a policy of never trying to argue developers
         | _down_ on estimates - I usually argue up as, at least in my
         | experience, most developers are fairly optimistic at what can
         | be achieved in a given time.
        
         | rytis wrote:
         | Usually this has a tendency to propagate, in my experience. The
         | deadlines come from above and/or externally dictated. So even
         | if you have balls to say a), your boss (or your boss' boss,
         | etc) may not, or they might have different agenda, that has
         | nothing to do with the quality of the deliverables.
        
         | spaetzleesser wrote:
         | a) has the implication that you suck if you can't do it in two
         | weeks. It's pretty sad that we can't state the cold, hard facts
         | but have to lie.
        
         | tremon wrote:
         | _Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you
         | 4 weeks instead of 2?_
         | 
         | No, I tell my boss that he sucks and it will take me 4 weeks
         | instead of 2.
        
           | tpoacher wrote:
           | hahah, I like this.
        
         | vishnugupta wrote:
         | I (as a manager) always get a push-back when I try to impose my
         | timelines on my team. Though we do have a healthy conversation
         | as a result and we end up uncovering a bunch of unknowns which
         | I then take it to my boss to inform them.
         | 
         | When an engineer says they need 4 weeks instead of 2 it's my
         | responsibility as a manager to get into the details, not as a
         | way to micro-manage but to help my team be more confident about
         | the 4 weeks timelines. Often times the engineers have a "gut"
         | feeling but aren't sure about "why" so I push them to spell out
         | that "why".
         | 
         | To answer your question; "b" is just about the worst possible
         | option. It not only makes you look bad but also the whole team
         | will get labelled; remember that your boss also has someone to
         | answer to and it'll make them also look bad. Never keep your
         | boss/manager in the dark. Push back with data and educate them
         | as to why it takes 4 weeks instead of 2.
        
           | danielscrubs wrote:
           | Please don't go into details. You'll end up with people just
           | doing c because they don't dare anything else. Did you come
           | up with data for your time hypothesis? Do what you want
           | others do to you.
           | 
           | Programming is a million details codified, each code-
           | line/detail is easy but the whole is complex.
           | 
           | If you really want to know become a team lead instead of a
           | team manager and just code alongside them (and preferably
           | take the easy parts to give the glory to those under you).
           | I've tried it and the colleagues where over the moon.
        
           | koonsolo wrote:
           | > when I try to impose my timelines on my team
           | 
           | As a senior developer, I don't like this sentence. If you
           | want an estimate on a certain job, you ask your team. If you
           | want to know what can be done in a fixed time-frame, you ask
           | your team.
           | 
           | I don't take "imposed" timelines well. In such scenario's, I
           | make it very clear who is at fault when deadlines are not met
           | (hint: it's not me or my fellow developers). When you push
           | back on this, I will ask who made this unrealistic estimate.
           | Ah? You mean the people who know the least of the work made
           | the estimate? Well, then it's normal the deadline was shit,
           | no? Maybe next time, ask the developers, they probably are
           | the best at making estimates of their work.
           | 
           | When you say "gut" feeling of developers, you probably mean
           | the instant reaction they give when you tell them the
           | timeline. Well, it can't be "informed" because you didn't ask
           | them to make an estimate did you? Developers need time making
           | an estimate. "Gut" feeling is probably your developers
           | thinking "WTF?!?!?!?".
           | 
           | I always educate my managers on who makes the estimates, how
           | much time it takes to make the estimate, and how estimates
           | and deadlines are not the same. I hope you also have a senior
           | developer under you who can educate you on this topic ;).
        
             | MereInterest wrote:
             | My "aha" moment on this was realizing the difference
             | between estimations and commitments. If there is some
             | probability distribution of how long a task will take, an
             | estimation gets the median of that distribution. On the
             | other hand, a commitment gets at least the 95th percentile
             | of that distribution. Estimations are useful for general
             | scheduling and resource management, while commitments are
             | useful for having others waiting to get started as soon as
             | a task is finished.
             | 
             | The biggest problem I run into is people not being clear
             | (or not knowing themselves) whether they are asking for an
             | estimation or a commitment. "How long do you think X will
             | take?" sure sounds like a request for an estimation, but if
             | they follow it up with "Great, I'll tell the customer it
             | will be done by then.", they clearly were looking for a
             | commitment instead.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | BlargMcLarg wrote:
           | Real question: do you actually believe this to be positive
           | more so than negative most of the time?
           | 
           | Many people will feel resentment over what is essentially
           | continuous doubt and having to spend time to push back that
           | could be spent thinking about the problem, diving in and
           | making a better idea later. Additionally, your way of
           | presenting the argument seems harmless and emotionless, yet
           | reality is often far away from this. A slew of social
           | dynamics take place which make developers say things to get
           | managers out of their hair more than truly having a
           | discussion on how long it takes.
           | 
           | The far majority of managers also impose these deadlines
           | without clear rime or reason ("because the customer wants
           | it"/"because sales said so", at best). What's really going to
           | happen if we estimate higher and end up overdelivering at the
           | end? Are you truly going to lose customers, or are you just
           | trying to pressure people in "being accurate", which often
           | devolves more into having one's subordinates take the blame
           | and the fall for underdelivering?
           | 
           | With all due respect, it feels like we are normalizing things
           | for the sake of manager's security without much reciprocation
           | (only make-believe that it is being reciprocated).
        
             | Dylan16807 wrote:
             | While having the discussion could definitely be unpleasant
             | and cause problems depending on how it goes, "having to
             | spend time to push back that could be spent thinking about
             | the problem" is a bit much. Half an hour isn't going to
             | affect the deadline. The odds of "making a better idea
             | later" aren't going to change significantly, either.
        
               | BlargMcLarg wrote:
               | It isn't just half an hour. It's half an hour of being
               | almost forcefully yanked out of the zone, which may lead
               | to hours of lost efficiency. The idea that we just
               | measure by the time it takes to talk to people plus a
               | minor overhead, is part of why this is being normalized
               | so often. Yet that idea has never been proven, and there
               | is more suggestive evidence of the opposite. Nor has the
               | value of such a "more accurate" estimate ever been shown,
               | beyond a few actually critical deadlines (extremely rare
               | in the field of software dev). Especially considering so
               | many projects even under harsh estimation rules go
               | overbudget and overtime anyway.
               | 
               | That's before going into the long-lasting effects of such
               | a dynamic, and potential escalations. The most obvious
               | one: dragging in part of, if not the entire team, for
               | every little thing.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | This discussion is part of planning that is already
               | happening as part of the pre-work. There is absolutely
               | zero need to take someone out of the zone to do it.
        
             | vishnugupta wrote:
             | As a manager it's my duty to create a safe space and frame
             | the challenge in a manner that doesn't create friction in
             | the team. When an engineer says it takes 4 weeks I well and
             | truly trust them, all that I seek is _why_. Because whey
             | they then get down to one or two level deeper details they
             | typically uncover more unknowns and for all you know it may
             | in fact end up as 6 weeks.
             | 
             | Also, none of this happens _on the spot_ ; as in "tell me
             | right know why it takes 4 weeks, let's do a 30 mins white
             | board session". Having been an engineer I totally
             | understand interruptions and, as a manager, interrupting my
             | team is like shooting myself in the foot. When I say
             | "conversation" it happens asynchronously over several days.
             | I encourage them to spend a day or half a day to work out
             | task break downs and dependencies because it takes a
             | different frame of mind to "plan" a task as opposed to
             | "working" on them.
             | 
             | > Are you truly going to lose customers, or are you just
             | trying to pressure people in "being accurate",
             | 
             | It's a combination of both though I wouldn't phrase the
             | latter as "pressure" or "being accurate". It's a way to
             | discover information that will increase my team's
             | confidence in delivering the project. As we all know most
             | of the project failures are not because people slack but
             | because they uncover a dependency too late down the line or
             | they don't validate an assumption or a new constraint is
             | discovered. Most of which could be accounted for with a
             | simple planning process.
             | 
             | I do recognise though that most engineers don't like
             | planning or task breakdown and so I spend quite a bit of
             | time to take much of the heavy lifting so that they don't
             | spend more than 10% of their time on it. As a manager I am
             | held accountable for my team's delivery and I absolutely
             | want engineers to be spending most of their time on
             | writing/delivering software. One example is I don't ask for
             | plans/task-breakdowns for anything less than a week. In
             | fact there's not even a debate; on the contrary if an
             | engineer says 3 days I ask them to round it up to 5 days (a
             | week). Only for tasks that are longer than a week I may get
             | into the details and for more than 2 weeks it's almost
             | mandatory.
             | 
             | > developers say things to get managers out of their hair
             | 
             | This seems like a well and truly dysfunctional team.
             | Engineers and managers are partners and only when they work
             | together can they deliver something meaningful. I would
             | address this mis-trust or friction first because if there's
             | no transparency within a team then all bets are off. We'll
             | end up with a series of failed projects, burnt out
             | engineers, operational nightmare and what not. What I've
             | noticed is these social frictions end up manifesting as
             | "estimation problems" and people try to address the symptom
             | by trying out different project management processes each
             | of which fail spectacularly.
        
               | BlargMcLarg wrote:
               | Thanks for the answer and being understanding.
               | 
               | >I do recognise though that most engineers don't like
               | planning or task breakdown
               | 
               | I don't think planning or task breakdown themselves are
               | the issue. Rather, it is a strong binding towards what is
               | estimated when in the back of the head, there is always
               | the looming threat of a missed dependency in a piece of
               | legacy code one forgot about. Individuals can capitalize
               | on missing ETAs by bundling them and still serving a
               | track record which is largely coherent with the total
               | estimate. They lose that power once a second or third
               | party shifts the weighting and places a
               | disproportionately high focus on missed deadlines over
               | overall productivity and crucial deadlines being hit.
               | That's when people start inflating estimates to give
               | themselves security. Which shows up in the statistics as
               | "perfect estimation", as unlike an underestimation, an
               | overestimation can masquerade as a perfect estimation as
               | long as someone doesn't investigate deeply (which itself
               | is costly).
               | 
               | >This seems like a well and truly dysfunctional team.
               | Engineers and managers are partners and only when they
               | work together can they deliver something meaningful
               | 
               | Disclaimer: I'm moving the goalpost of the discussion
               | here. I agree with the idea that managers and developers
               | should work together, not against one another.
               | 
               | Unfortunately, this is the part where idealism and
               | reality clash often. I question whether the majority of
               | places execute this way, even if they claim to value the
               | same idea. Given the inherent power imbalance between
               | management and developers, it is just too easy for
               | management to force its point of view and normalize away
               | any dysfunctionality. Most developers won't quit on the
               | spot: they still need to eat, don't perceive an abundance
               | of jobs, etc.. The entire thing sets itself up for a frog
               | in boiling pot situation, where as long as the management
               | layers don't massively mess up, developers will continue
               | normalizing away more dysfunctionalities.
               | 
               | I've seen this happen both with technical managers who no
               | longer have to work with the tech themselves, and non-
               | tech managers who have zero understanding of the entire
               | thing. Power is intoxicating. The required empathy to
               | deal with these gaps in perspective is a trait the far
               | majority of people don't possess. The aforementioned
               | power imbalance and other traits (maybe not in Silicon
               | Valley, but here, management is both more prestigious and
               | pays better) causes people without that trait to pour in,
               | often selected by people who were lacking that trait to
               | begin with. We get massive amounts of practices with zero
               | support, because that same gut instinct that developers
               | get berated for, many managers will often use to claim
               | their way is better, disregarding any counterargument to
               | their own whimsical feelings. If not gut instinct, it's
               | some snake oil salesman selling a practice which, again,
               | has zero support.
        
             | KSteffensen wrote:
             | It's the managers duty to create the trust needed for
             | having a constructive discussion of task breakdowns and
             | timelines. If the engineer is "just saying things to get
             | the managers out of their hair" the manager has failed at
             | this.
             | 
             | You seem to dismiss entirely that doing a proper task
             | breakdown is a way to think about the problem, revealing
             | unknowns, clarifying requirements and making sure as many
             | steps along the way as possible are clear and actionable.
             | 
             | In an ASIC project, if you miss your tape-out deadline,
             | your time to market will be delayed by several months until
             | the fab can find a new slot to fit you in. This can cost
             | many millions of dollars. Accurate development estimates
             | are important.
        
               | BlargMcLarg wrote:
               | I'm not dismissing a work breakdown. I'm dismissing the
               | idea that pushing a quick 30 minutes to make people
               | defend themselves is really as fruitful as a lot of
               | people, non-technical managers especially, like to claim.
               | When reality is, we hardly have any data to back this up,
               | and there are many counterarguments against this idea.
               | 
               | A proper work breakdown may cost a lot more than 30
               | minutes. In any ticketing system, this can be inserted as
               | subtasks which immediately grants an, admittedly
               | superficial, level of transparency into how far the
               | entire thing is done. If you truly want thinking to be
               | done, surely you would agree talking it over for 30
               | minutes doesn't imply a whole lot of thinking, as much as
               | it implies a whole lot of _talking_. At that point, just
               | take a step back, chill, tell the developer they need a
               | strong defense and teach them to provide that defense in
               | whatever way suits them best that still makes the point
               | come across.
               | 
               | Software development as a field has made such a knee-jerk
               | reaction against failed projects, it now overemphasizes
               | "security" and "correctness", and tons of red tape, on
               | top of methodologies which inherently should already fix
               | most of the problem. Aren't we supposed to work
               | iteratively so managers can make a proper forecast? Let
               | the actual data speak for itself and don't bind too
               | strongly to the words of the individual. The far majority
               | of people do not work on projects that truly require
               | tight deadlines, yet almost every software company out
               | there is trying to emulate this high-pressure environment
               | without clear insight as to why people join a low-
               | pressure environment to begin with.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > When an engineer says they need 4 weeks instead of 2 it's
           | my responsibility as a manager to get into the details, not
           | as a way to micro-manage but to help my team be more
           | confident about the 4 weeks timelines.
           | 
           | As a manager, isn't your job to understand the well-
           | documented problems with direct time estimates of knowledge
           | work even when the work is being estimated by subject-matter
           | experts who regularly perform the type of work being
           | estimated, and understand and coach your team on use of the
           | known techniques with that mitigate that somewhat (among
           | which "managers getting down in the weeds to 'provide
           | confidence' is not particularly prominent), so that you
           | develop as-decent-as-practical estimates with, over time,
           | enmpirical error bars without unproductively wasting
           | everyone's time and morale in exercises that can be assured
           | to, in general, fail to.refine them meaningfully, rather than
           | engaging in self-deluded pop-management-culture self-ego-
           | stroking approaches that let you feel useful, even though
           | they are known to make estimates worse.
        
         | px1999 wrote:
         | Never seeing A is IMO a bit of a red flag.
         | 
         | A+C is probably the most common where I'm at (enterprise SaaS),
         | though its usually with management's knowledge/understanding.
         | We wind up rushing something out to meet the client's direct
         | need to hit their deadline, then figure out generalisation
         | afterwards (which admittedly does drag out and has its own
         | issues).
         | 
         | As a genuine question, is this approach abnormal or bad?
         | 
         | I'm on the technical management side of the whole thing - am I
         | screwing my staff by encouraging this?
         | 
         | We want to shorten that generalisation process but that
         | (internal) pressure to just close it out seems like the lesser
         | of two evils when compared to the sorts of pressure that
         | clients paying significant $$$ apply
        
         | hrktb wrote:
         | a) happens routinely. It's not just that you effectively suck,
         | your boss also sucks and needs to learn from it.
         | 
         | Basically a) is your chance to recalibrate the expectations,
         | and if you don't do it you'll be stuck forever meeting random
         | deadlines (well, even if you do it you're still not out of that
         | cycle, but at least you're setting precedents)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | bluenose69 wrote:
       | I wish they had plotted those time-series graphs with simple
       | lines, instead of with overlapping filled curves that hide the
       | initial history for data plotted "underneath".
       | 
       | Has MIT changed from a technical institute to a business school,
       | where pretty colors matter more than the conveyance of
       | information?
        
       | camilo86 wrote:
       | reminds me of "cheap, fast, good; pick 2"
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | Doesn't non-fast imply non-cheap?
        
           | claudiulodro wrote:
           | If I understood your question, cheap + good + slow is
           | generally when you do everything yourself.
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | I guess it depends on your salary. ;)
             | 
             | The way it makes more sense to me is when you spread out
             | the same amount of effort over longer elapsed time, quality
             | increases just my not rushing things and being able to
             | reflect more.
        
         | robjan wrote:
         | There's another dimension which is "scope" and is also often
         | negotiable.
        
         | euroderf wrote:
         | This has been formalized in a triangular graphic. Why not
         | provide this to a project manager, on a corkboard or magnetic
         | board, along with pins/markers to show original plans and
         | current estimates ?
        
       | sublimefire wrote:
       | "Never commit to deadlines"
       | -some software engineer
       | 
       | Software has an unbounded set of problems, like in the creative
       | fields. The difference is that you can fill in a book with random
       | thoughts (if there is no time), but you cannot just fill in
       | functional features in the codebase you did commit to. The same
       | issue exists in the very large and complicated builds (eg
       | skyscrapers) although you can plan ahead really far due to the
       | existing physical constraints (site size, machinery, materials,
       | avg. labour output).
       | 
       | Over in the software shop I work for, we just prioritize each
       | week. Works really well. And we cannot commit to the deadlines or
       | even estimate, as there are too many moving parts, too many
       | products. To make customers happy the product managers comfort
       | them with words (just like sales people promise mountains of gold
       | for a penny).
        
       | rognjen wrote:
       | An important thing I've learnt is that people over-estimate what
       | they can do in a short time whereas they under-estimate what they
       | can do in a long time.
       | 
       | You probably wont finish that feature tonight, and that's OK.
       | 
       | But you will have built something good in a year if you work on
       | it a little bit consistently.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | js8 wrote:
         | I feel like people underestimate the time something will take
         | but overestimate the actual effort. What you say seems to be a
         | consequence of that.
         | 
         | We underestimate the time, because in reality we often worry
         | about things, and procrastinate on decisions. But in the
         | estimate we don't think about it, we assume all decisions will
         | be made immediately.
         | 
         | We overestimate the effort, because we sometimes do not know
         | how to solve certain problems or work efficiently and in the
         | estimate, we only know the hard way, not the easy way. But with
         | practice, the hard way often becomes easy.
         | 
         | It might also come down to us valuing future work more than the
         | work in the past, so looking back things are less effort than
         | looking forward. But in the case of time itself (represented by
         | hit/missed deadlines) we value these as more important with
         | respect to the past than to the future (they already happened,
         | while the future is uncertain).
        
         | spaetzleesser wrote:
         | That's one of the big problems I see with enterprise agile
         | development. Breaking up things into small independent parts
         | never allows you to gain momentum on something. Pretty much
         | everything I did that I am still proud of were done after
         | focusing on the an issue for weeks or months until I/we had a
         | very good grasp of the issue and built up the mental and code
         | infrastructure to do cool things. You can't achieve this in 3
         | week sprints.
        
       | eyelidlessness wrote:
       | Estimates are bad because everyone is preconditioned to lie and
       | don't want to hear the truth.
        
       | xcambar wrote:
       | Estimates are here to fail, but they're nonetheless crucial:
       | 
       | * set an estimate, you'll deliver in 1.5x your estimate * don't
       | set an estimate, you're losing total control over delivery
       | (rarely for the better, even though that may happen)
       | 
       | In other words, estimates are not a tool of delivery planning,
       | but of risk management : they are here to help limit time
       | dilation.
        
         | DoingIsLearning wrote:
         | I will paraphrase a former Japanese manager who taught me a lot
         | about designing for production:
         | 
         | "Plans will always fail but we must always have plans."
        
           | onorton wrote:
           | "Plans are worthless, but planning is everything" is the
           | version I've heard.
        
       | wunderflix wrote:
       | _> So, what did we learn?
       | 
       | 1. If you are coding or writing, multiply the expected time of
       | any specific task by ~ 1.5x (the real completion time will now
       | probably still be 1.5x longer than your new expected time, but
       | you tried)._
       | 
       | 1.5x matches my real-world SW dev experience.
        
         | vishnugupta wrote:
         | I read somewhere that a rule of thumb is to double the number
         | and then scale it up by one order of magnitude.
         | 
         | Example: 1 day == 2 weeks, 1 week = 2 months, 1 month = 2
         | years. More than a month = Let's not even start.
        
       | tobr wrote:
       | I like the use of "spoiler" in the abstract. I mean, that's
       | basically what an abstract is.
        
       | dstein64 wrote:
       | > "Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even
       | when you take into account Hofstadter's Law"
       | 
       | - Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. 20th anniversary
       | ed., 1999, p. 152.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law
        
         | jxy wrote:
         | Ha, you beat me to it. Though you quote it wrong. That was the
         | whole sentence in the G.E.B.. Without the quotes.
        
           | dstein64 wrote:
           | I updated the the quote. Thanks!
        
       | splittingTimes wrote:
       | Over the years our team has gotten good at grooming and splitting
       | up tickets, at estimating individual tickets and keeping a steady
       | Sprint velocity.
       | 
       | Each 3 week Sprint we deliver what the team commits itself to.
       | 
       | However on a macro level we fail spectacularly. Initial Roadmap
       | estimation of how long new features take are way off. A new
       | feature should be ready in 3 sprints.. make that 6. This
       | milestone should be reached in 2 sprints.. Make that 4.
       | 
       | It often comes down to hidden requirements that are discovered
       | midway or prototypes that get into feedback loops with stake
       | holders and take much longer then expected. Compared to those
       | problems, we Rather seldomly we hit unexpected technical problems
       | that prolong a project (but of course this happens too)
        
         | js8 wrote:
         | If you focus on short-term, it's somewhat unsurprising that you
         | fail at long-term.
        
         | TheCoelacanth wrote:
         | Does the roadmap include 1 sprint blocked off for unknowns for
         | every 1 sprint that is full of known tickets (actual ratio
         | should be determined empirically for your team)?
         | 
         | If not, I think I've spotted your problem.
        
         | TameAntelope wrote:
         | This here is why requirements need to be use case oriented, not
         | code oriented. "I want to be able to look at my user profile"
         | not, "I need to click on my user profile picture and navigate
         | to a page displaying the following ten items..."
         | 
         | There needs to be room to deliver the value that can take on
         | that uncertainty. It's a good thing when an engineer can take a
         | look at the use case and have options for how to deliver it, if
         | you hired for that.
        
       | jxy wrote:
       | Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even
       | when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
        
       | curuinor wrote:
       | it's all fat tails, they're all fat tails, assume correlational
       | structure and whack peeps in the head if they say anything about
       | bell curves
       | 
       | when you play the game of code you play a demonic St. Petersburg
       | martingale. you start with one time period. flip the coin- heads,
       | you finish. tails, you double the time period. at the end of that
       | time period, flip it again: heads, you finish. tails you double
       | the time period again. and so on: the expectation is infinite.
       | 
       | "well, that doesn't sound so bad, really" - there's why bernoulli
       | was scratching his head.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | Thorrez wrote:
         | > I said a 8 but I don't really know why
         | 
         | > Could be a 1 or it could take my whole life
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7A8UChBTI
        
           | bick_nyers wrote:
           | I didn't know this existed. Thank you
        
       | pmiller2 wrote:
       | Hmm, who knew that if I had just paid good enough attention at my
       | team's standups, I could have gotten a publishable paper out of
       | it.
       | 
       | This isn't sarcasm. I'm actually glad someone did it.
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | I interacted in a workshop with a person who taught about
       | personal organization, and we had a phone session.
       | 
       | I thought that it was important to fill your planning and
       | calendar with fixed things.
       | 
       | Instead she advised me to just plan week by week. I'm a freelance
       | and honestly, it sort of feel better to be part of a bigger,
       | organized group that tells you the things that are to do.
       | 
       | When you're the only decider of your own planning, it feels
       | really weird: do I just have to fill up my planning with whatever
       | things I deem of importance?
       | 
       | Just like Sartre said, we are shockingly free (existentialism
       | etc), and we still crave and aspire to be part of an organized
       | group with goals we can adhere to, to feel safe.
        
         | dkarl wrote:
         | I agree; regimenting your day is a poor substitute for short-
         | term planning. It looks very orderly to have items like 9:00am,
         | read email, 9:10am, Make sure Jira tickets are in correct
         | states, 9:20am, respond to email, etc., filling your calendar
         | from now until eternity, but it makes more sense to spend ten
         | minutes at the end of every day planning the start of the next.
         | Maybe you know your Jira tickets and email are in order and you
         | can sleep an extra half hour. Maybe you have an important
         | presentation in the afternoon and it would be best to spend
         | 8am-9am nailing down the answer to a question you know will
         | come up.
         | 
         | It's very hard but very important to stop working a few minutes
         | early at the end of the day. You want to keep coding (or
         | whatever) right up until the minute you need to stop, but that
         | leaves you unknowingly disoriented at the start of the next
         | day. You will either pick right back up with the coding,
         | forgetting about everything else, or start aimlessly and waste
         | the first hour of the morning trying to restore your awareness
         | of priorities.
        
       | halayli wrote:
       | imo, the problem with estimates vs reality is that estimates
       | don't include mental state. And just to clarify more about mental
       | state, I am referring to being in the zone / flow, and
       | individuals are healthy and experience normal stress / happiness
       | levels.
       | 
       | We assume and expect consistent productivity from ourselves.
       | Anecdotally, In my 20 yrs experience, I've never heard a software
       | engineer saying to their manager "add 2 more weeks on top because
       | my mental state is not at its sharpest these days". No SE in
       | their right mind would put themselves in such a vulnerable
       | situation especially when no one else talks about it.
       | 
       | The delays we naively anticipate are the obvious technical
       | related ones and gotchas / cases we might not have considered for
       | the problem.
       | 
       | This is a problem that is prominent in this field and unless I've
       | been missing out on discussions, I've never seen it discussed.
       | 
       | There is a huge productivity difference between people that wake
       | up in the zone vs any other zone. And I've yet to see an SE or
       | any other human that can wake up in the zone every single day.
       | It's impossible. Although this is something we can improve at an
       | individual level by focusing on lowering the std deviation which
       | will help us estimate better and imo it's one of the key factors
       | why some SEs can give more accurate estimates than others
       | assuming they have similar technical skillset.
       | 
       | Each SE deals with this fluctuation / "problem" alone. I've often
       | seen SEs jumping on the management track when the gap between
       | "being in the zone" start to consistently widen. Often after a
       | burnout that never fully recovered.
       | 
       | You wouldn't see this being a problem in careers like
       | HR/Management/Sales. Because an individual can still be somehow
       | productive without being in the zone. But in software
       | engineering, art, writing and the like, it's kind of binary and
       | is very visible.
        
         | SamBam wrote:
         | Indeed, this is a standard cause of procrastination: the belief
         | that our future selves will be more in the "mood" to do the
         | work, while our current selves aren't. Unfortunately, in the
         | future we will still be our current selves.
         | 
         | So, similarly, we give estimations based on this rosy picture
         | of our future selves, who will somehow work the rest of the
         | week in unbroken eight-hour stretches of concentration and
         | flow.
        
         | rurban wrote:
         | Overriding priorities has nothing to do with "bad mental
         | state". It only has to do with changed priorities and scope.
         | 
         | Missed deadlines have to do with need to fix other more urgent
         | stuff.
        
         | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
         | In my case, I'm a "wee bit on the spectrum," so to speak.
         | 
         | The minus is that I don't relate with people on the same level
         | as most. It used to be fairly crippling, but I learned to
         | compensate, and these days, it's just a bit annoying.
         | 
         | The plus is a "flow" that is _incredibly_ deep and productive.
         | 
         | I long ago, gave up on "scientific" estimates. They make good
         | catbox liner; not much else.
         | 
         | Breaking a project into layers and explicit "packages"
         | (modules) helps. It allows me to evaluate complexity a bit
         | better; but it always ends up being my "gut." I've been
         | developing software for more than thirty years, so it isn't
         | actually a bad metric. I am a bit of a cynic and a pessimist.
         | That helps.
         | 
         | But the thing that works for me the best, is "JIT estimates." I
         | won't (as in refuse to) give an estimate for the long term. If
         | someone has a project plan in mind, I will try to plan a scope
         | that I "feel" will be doable within that scope, then reduce it.
         | If it is just me, I'll reduce it by about 25%. If it is a team,
         | I'll reduce it by _at least_ 50%.
         | 
         | I will then avoid specific estimates until I start on a
         | package/layer. If I think it will take longer than I'd like, up
         | front, I may reduce the scope. It's easier when it's a
         | small[ish], discrete, atomic job, as opposed to a months-long
         | aggregate effort.
         | 
         | That said, in my experience, the boardroom will _always_ have a
         | classic waterfall schedule, and they are the ones that sign the
         | checks. They aren 't always thrilled with my approach. That's
         | why I have waited until I'm running the show to do it.
         | 
         | I'm working on a project now, that is fairly ambitious. It's
         | the kind of thing that usually requires a team of five to ten
         | engineers, and I'm doing it on my own. Thankfully, a really
         | significant part (the backend) is done, tested, and released
         | (for a couple of years). That puppy took seven months. I've
         | been working on a native iOS frontend for about five months,
         | but took a break for almost a month, as I needed to give a
         | class.
         | 
         | In this effort, the folks I'm working with have no choice. They
         | _have_ to abide by my schedule, as I 'm the only one doing the
         | tech work. They are actually thrilled with the speed at which
         | things are coming together. I credit my "always ship quality"
         | approach for that. It almost eliminates "QC surprises," and
         | gives unmatched transparency.
        
         | collyw wrote:
         | I am sure many people are like me in that there are constant
         | meetings, questions and other interruptions to the point that
         | you never actually get into the "zone".
        
         | decasteve wrote:
         | I have adjusted estimates saying that exact thing to a
         | publisher, but never in a traditional software environment
         | unless it was a physical injury or sickness.
        
         | tester34 wrote:
         | I'd say that not talking about context switches is weird.
         | 
         | Sometimes I'm jumping between 3 different projects and having
         | talks with 2 people about $new_project within day and it feels
         | like at least 1/3 of the day is wasted on context switch.
        
         | sildur wrote:
         | Huge thanks for talking about that. I thought I was the only
         | one. I'm really unproductive when I have budget issues, can't
         | stop thinking about it.
        
         | hmwhy wrote:
         | I'm not sure the metal state that you are referring to really
         | makes a difference in terms of deadline estimation. The way I
         | see it is that, in the grand scheme of things, if you are
         | consistently missing the targets then either you get fired or,
         | if the problem is systemic, the company folds.
         | 
         | In other words, if you are not getting fired and the company
         | isn't folding, and that neither is happening anytime soon, then
         | everything is just "business as usual" and missing a deadline
         | here and there is just part of the natural statistical
         | fluctuations that everyone have come to accept according to
         | some unwritten rules.
         | 
         | I would go as far as drawing parallels between "being in the
         | zone" for a software engineer and "meeting sales targets" for a
         | salesperson. In that sense, not being in the zone every now and
         | then is just as reasonable (or unreasonable, depending on your
         | employer) as missing sales targets every now and then.
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | > if the problem is systemic, the company folds.
           | 
           | Why do you think that? Imagine we have two similar companies,
           | and one of them has mediocre deadline estimates, while the
           | other would be mediocre except they also underestimate
           | everything by 50%. Shouldn't both companies have similar
           | success in the market?
        
           | Guthur wrote:
           | The problem is deadlines in and of themselves, it quite often
           | leads to student syndrome[1].
           | 
           | I've seen it from the small up to the very big project. And I
           | also believe it's also a little self feeding, after cramming
           | so much for the first deadline you feel you deserve a little
           | break, right?
           | 
           | We need to develop far more steady working practices
           | harnessing intrinsic motivation rather than drive through
           | fear derived motivation of deadlines and other anathemas of
           | healthy work ethic.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_syndrome
        
           | etripe wrote:
           | > in terms of deadline estimation
           | 
           | In my experience, deadlines are usually arbitrary to begin
           | with. They are the result of annual/quarterly budget
           | allocation much more than actual customer needs. Nothing of
           | value is lost when they are missed.
           | 
           | I understand the need to divvy up budgets, especially in
           | publicly listed companies. What strikes me as nonsensical is
           | the particular inflexibility with these budgets and their
           | poor correlation to actual customer needs. Perhaps this is
           | merely a symptom of the modern business world, where "the
           | business" refers to a class of people rather than the
           | _actual_ business.
        
           | unlaxedneurotic wrote:
           | I believe that OP is talking about estimating deadlines for
           | yourself. If you estimate a deadline and then due to some
           | reasons your mental state deteriorates, that makes it
           | considerably harder to achieve it. Sales targets and
           | deadlines provided externally would have very different
           | connotations imo.
        
           | _nalply wrote:
           | > if the problem is systemic, the company folds.
           | 
           | This is not the neccessary result. If a company is well
           | established in its bullshit dealings it can survive for
           | decades with inefficiencies and in some perverse cases even
           | thrive.
        
           | crispyambulance wrote:
           | I would add that many "deadlines" are actually just arbitrary
           | project management bullshit that exist to create a sense of
           | "urgency" because the people that make the promises to
           | customers don't trust the people that do the work.
           | 
           | But on an individual level, procrastination and slipping
           | deadlines has a deep seated psychological basis. The best way
           | an individual can deal with this problem is by addressing
           | internal motivations and their own emotional state-- that's
           | definitely NOT in the PM-BOK. (see
           | https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/smarter-living/why-you-
           | pr...)
        
         | WhompingWindows wrote:
         | The solution for artists and writers is to work consistently.
         | Obsessing about whether or not you're "in the zone" isn't
         | productive. Instead, just get started, work every single day on
         | your field. Seinfeld had a calendar and he had to write an X on
         | every single day after he wrote jokes. I don't see why any
         | high-functioning individual in any field couldn't learn
         | something new every day.
        
           | zikzak wrote:
           | This is also the solution for developers. You sit down and do
           | the work. Some days are better than others. If you have
           | rituals or strategies to maximize that productive time,
           | that's great, but don't sit around waiting for the muse to
           | inspire you.
           | 
           | I find it helpful to have:
           | 
           | - resumable tasks - I want to sit down and work, not sit down
           | and figure out what to do
           | 
           | - multiple projects - if today isn't a great day for
           | intellectual pursuits and I keep getting interrupted maybe
           | I'll do an admin task or fix some simple bugs. Also works for
           | when something is stalled.
           | 
           | - acknowledge you cannot control everything - if the progress
           | is delayed in ways the estimate didn't anticipate, document
           | them and keep working
        
             | swordsmith wrote:
             | > - resumable tasks - I want to sit down and work, not sit
             | down and figure out what to do
             | 
             | I've found this indeed helps me get back to productivity.
             | But at the same time, if I know what exactly needs to be
             | done, it would be hard for myself to stop until it's
             | finished. And that's when multi-day coding binge happens,
             | followed by a few days of fatigue and low productivity.
             | Kind a of a catch-22 for me...I wonder if there's anyway to
             | be moderate about it.
        
         | TeMPOraL wrote:
         | I strongly agree with your comment, with a single caveat:
         | 
         | > _You wouldn 't see this being a problem in careers like
         | HR/Management/Sales. Because an individual can still be somehow
         | productive without being in the zone._
         | 
         | I think it could actually be the other way around. That kind of
         | work is very conductive to be "in the zone". In my few attempts
         | at managing groups of people, I've learned that the work that's
         | easiest to give you the state of flow is one where "next
         | actions" are always obvious, and you get rapid feedback. Work
         | where you can - and often should - substitute moving forward
         | for thinking things through. Work where thinking gets
         | distributed, outsourced to group interaction. That is sales and
         | management, and I imagine lots of HR also.
         | 
         | So in a way, I think "people people" are "in the zone" much
         | more often than we are, which is why they may not understand
         | just how hard it is to get there when your tasks are brick
         | walls requiring intense concentration.
        
           | ElderMillennial wrote:
           | You can totally crash manager flow.
           | 
           | I wouldn't recommend doing this on purpose, but if you say
           | something that forces the whole room to stop and consider,
           | you can often break the conversational flow and leave a
           | meeting of managers dead in the water.
           | 
           | You can also do something that wipes an individual manager's
           | mental cache and they'll spend days trying to remember what
           | everyone is up to and what's happening.
           | 
           | I think your final sentence is close, but I'd rephrase it:
           | for managers, those disruptions and conversations in your
           | schedule _are_ them dealing with things that require intense
           | concentration. I think most of them understand what
           | disruption feels like, they just don 't associate sitting at
           | the computer typing with that focus because it's not the
           | mechanics of their role -- their focus manifests differently.
           | 
           | My managers only rudely interrupt me when they, themselves,
           | are clearly still processing something their boss said to
           | them and they need my input to unblock that process. Or some
           | kind of thing I need to do _now_ , again to unblock whatever
           | they have going on.
        
             | Grimm665 wrote:
             | I think you hit the nail on the head, I have definitely
             | experienced a lot of this, even when dealing with managers
             | I enjoy working with and that have an understanding of
             | engineering-type workflows.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | I've only been coding professionally for a few years and I've
         | too noticed dramatic productivity differences some days
         | compared to others that aren't related to unexpected technical
         | aspects ... it's just the volume, speed, accuracy of my coding
         | all by itself it seems.
         | 
         | With something that takes a lot of focus I think mental state
         | is absolutely huge.
         | 
         | We see athletes go through warmups and traditions before they
         | start a game to get going not just physically but mentally ...
         | makes me wonder if I should do the same.
        
           | rackforms wrote:
           | Personally, it's much easier for me to be invested in a task
           | when what I'm doing is 'interesting' to me.
           | 
           | Almost always and ironically, when something's interesting to
           | me it's usually more difficult work and thus, contains far
           | more unknowns, hence making estimates that much less
           | reliable.
        
         | madcaptenor wrote:
         | Regarding mental state: this study covers June 22, 2020 to the
         | "present" (the paper is dated April 1, 2021, but I don't think
         | it's an April Fool's joke). I suspect that people are to some
         | extent calibrated to pre-pandemic expectations. I know I can't
         | get things done like I could have in the Before Times, either
         | because of mental state or because of more distractions at home
         | than usual.
         | 
         | Figure 1(b) of the paper might suggest that people's estimates
         | are worse on tasks that require flow, although I don't think
         | there's enough data to be sure.
        
         | bumbada wrote:
         | >And I've yet to see an SE or any other human that can wake up
         | in the zone every single day. It's impossible.
         | 
         | I wake up in the zone every single time because I sleep what I
         | need. I also do exercise and eat well. It is that simple.
         | 
         | In fact I wake up two times because I sleep in between hours of
         | hard work. I copied that from tennis players and other elite
         | sport players. Rafael Nadal plays a multiple hour match and
         | goes to the Hotel to sleep(At 12 AM!!) after that.
         | 
         | I see no difference when the stress is mental hard work instead
         | of physical. I am an elite player too.
         | 
         | I believe what you call "in the zone" is code for "having
         | rested from an stressful situation" or not.
         | 
         | I see people trying to get by by using stimulants like coffee
         | to work, but that is deluding yourself. It is just removing the
         | signal from your body that you need to rest after stress.
         | 
         | You don't see this being a problem in HR/Management/Sales
         | because the intensity of their work is usually very low. But
         | those jobs could also become emotionally very stressful too
         | (having to fire someone, pressure from above).
         | 
         | Most people can not even control or manage their own time and
         | waste 2 hours commuting each day. Something has to give.
        
           | TeMPOraL wrote:
           | > _I wake up in the zone every single time because I sleep
           | what I need. I also do exercise and eat well. It is that
           | simple._
           | 
           | Tried that, didn't work. Hell, at some point in my life, the
           | only consistent way for me to get into the zone was to be
           | sleep-deprived.
           | 
           | The zone isn't about stress per se. It's about focus. Low
           | levels of stress can often help here (acting as rails that
           | bounce you back onto the track if you start to veer off).
           | High levels of stress will of course prevent the state of
           | flow, but if you can kill off that signal somehow, you may
           | have a chance to get back into the zone.
           | 
           | > _I see people trying to get by by using stimulants like
           | coffee to work, but that is deluding yourself. It is just
           | removing the signal from your body that you need to rest
           | after stress._
           | 
           | Thing is, people often have no other choice. The body doesn't
           | have a "snooze" button - once it considers something an
           | emergency, it doesn't understand the signal was received and
           | noted, but there's nothing that can or should be done about
           | it now. It'll just keep bugging you.
        
             | bumbada wrote:
             | I recommend that you read about flow then.
             | 
             | The original idea of flow(in the zone) comes from this book
             | and author, but is obsolete now:
             | 
             | https://www.amazon.com/Flow-Psychology-Experience-
             | Perennial-...
             | 
             | I recommend this book and audiobook about gammification to
             | understand flow better.
             | 
             | https://www.amazon.com/Reality-Broken-Games-Better-
             | Change/dp...
             | 
             | Whatever breaks the game in your work, stops the flow. For
             | example, instant feedback is very hard to get creating
             | software unless you design for it(like using REPLs and
             | reusing almost everything).
             | 
             | Other things that the book mentions break your game too(not
             | having clear rules, being alone)...
             | 
             | Another important thing is thinking too much rationally.
             | The logical mind is so slow getting results that you break
             | the instant feedback.
             | 
             | Also working too much in low level has way slower feedback
             | than working with higher level languages. I metaprogram
             | lower level languages for this reason, I am orders of
             | magnitude faster.
             | 
             | >The zone isn't about stress per se.
             | 
             | Sorry, I was not eloquent enough. when I talk about stress
             | I am referring to stress in general: Mental, emotional, or
             | physical stress.
             | 
             | That is, if you are doing something difficult mentally, you
             | stress your brain.
             | 
             | For every stress you need time to recover.
             | 
             | You can do 10 hours without recovering if the stress is
             | low. If the stress is high, you will only be able to do 4
             | hours.
             | 
             | It is very easy to understand, you can walk for 8 hours,
             | but you can not run for 10 hours. A marathon is about 4
             | hours or less.
             | 
             | What I am telling you is that if you run for 4 hours hard
             | mentally and do not recover, you will not be able to work
             | another 4 hours of hard work, unless you rest.
             | 
             | Nothing will do, no technique will do unless you rest.
             | 
             | Of course you need to do right lots of other things too.
             | But don't say it is impossible just because you can not do
             | it.
        
           | SuoDuanDao wrote:
           | I've heard the theory that flow requires periods of
           | struggling with learning or improving a skill, and that the
           | intense learning is a precursor to having sufficient skill to
           | be 'in the zone' relative to the challenge at hand. Does that
           | jive with your observations? Is learning just another
           | challenge that you have sufficient skill for, or do you find
           | that cycle isn't necessary, or something else?
        
           | Lewton wrote:
           | Another anecdote. I'm someone who's made "sacrifices"[0],
           | giving up alcohol, leave parties early to make sure I always
           | go to bed at the same time (no exceptions), getting my diet
           | in order, exercise etc etc. Literally prioritizing my sleep
           | above everything.
           | 
           | I'm experiencing exactly what you describe. There's zero
           | ramp-up time to get in the zone. I've gone from having 4
           | productive hours on a really good day, to having 8, at work,
           | and several after work. I just get up in the morning (no
           | alarm necessary), sit down with a clear mind, and start
           | working.
           | 
           | I also do something similar to waking up twice. But it's more
           | just lying down and staring at the ceiling for half an hour
           | in the afternoon, if I feel it's necessary
           | 
           | [0]It's funny how the me of 3 years ago would consider these
           | things huge sacrifices yet after I've done them it feels
           | ridiculous to describe them as such
        
         | Aeolun wrote:
         | > There is a huge productivity difference between people that
         | wake up in the zone vs any other zone
         | 
         | There is my secret. I am never in the zone, and neither is
         | anyone else in my company since they're asked for status
         | updates, meetings and 'war rooms' every few minutes.
         | 
         | I guess the one positive is that it makes estimation easier :D
        
         | [deleted]
        
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