[HN Gopher] Who Owns the Nile?
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Who Owns the Nile?
Author : danso
Score : 33 points
Date : 2021-04-01 15:54 UTC (1 days ago)
(HTM) web link (blog.datawrapper.de)
(TXT) w3m dump (blog.datawrapper.de)
| baybal2 wrote:
| I know how it will work. Most likely nothing will happen.
| Egyptian regime is very fragile, and will not risk a foreign
| intervention while having to suppress monthly uprisings back
| home.
| slibhb wrote:
| I think a war with Ethiopia would help the Egyptian regime,
| assuming it went well. And it probably would because Egypt's
| military is the strongest in the region minus Israel.
|
| The real question is what Sudan would do (probably lie down for
| the Egyptians).
| bumbada wrote:
| Ethiopia is probably the only nation in Africa that has not
| been dominated by foreign powers.
|
| The reason is the topography. Ethiopia has lots of mountains,
| like Switzerland and it is painful to attack.
|
| Any foreign nation helping Ethiopia could mean disaster for
| Egypt.
| inglor_cz wrote:
| Controlling the entire Ethiopia would be a huge challenge,
| but the war objective in a fight over the Nile is much more
| limited in scope.
| slibhb wrote:
| I suppose in war you never know. But the dam is 10 miles
| from the Sudanese border.
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| Maybe Sudan would help Egypt. They use the Nile's water too.
| HorkHunter wrote:
| They had a joint training Air force operation 2 days ago
| named "Nile Eagles"
|
| https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/egypt-sudan-hold-
| nile-e...
| gorkemyurt wrote:
| "Egypt's military is the strongest in the region minus
| Israel." and minus Turkey
| onetimemanytime wrote:
| Water is life or death. So they might have to try it.
|
| Go block oil extraction in the Arab world and USA will be all
| over you...national interest.
| BurningFrog wrote:
| Not anymore. The US is an oil exporting nation now.
| sremani wrote:
| not any more (vis USA and Arab world) - is the fifth fleet
| still there in persian gulf ?
| luckylion wrote:
| > Go block oil extraction in the Arab world and USA will be
| all over you...national interest.
|
| You mean like they did in the 70ies when the opec cartel cut
| oil production for political reasons? yeah...
| HorkHunter wrote:
| The difference is, regardless of political divisions, everyone
| in Egypt totally understands that they are doomed without
| water. so the mentality there is slowly shifting towards "well,
| if we are dying anyway...."
| kevin_b_er wrote:
| If it becomes an existential threat to Egypt via the Nile
| drying up, then the Egyptian people themselves will want war.
| medium_burrito wrote:
| No need to intervene in the ear of 5th gen wars, especially
| when Ethiopia effectively has a civil war going on.
| sremani wrote:
| The crisis of lack of water is bigger, who ever bombs the shit
| out of Great Renaissance Dam is going to be popular in Egypt.
|
| Egypt more than one occasion came close to doing something like
| that. Long story short. Who ever has better military
| capabilities will own the Nile.
|
| Egypt can use Suez as another piece to get Europe to accept its
| bombing campaign.
| Freestyler_3 wrote:
| Why bomb a damn when you can hack it.
| baybal2 wrote:
| > who ever bombs the shit out of Great Renaissance Dam is
| going to be popular in Egypt.
|
| Would they? GERD destruction = tsunami on the nile, possibly
| setting a chain reaction through downstream dams.
|
| Sisi has now managed to beat even Murbarak on getting the
| lowest rating on record from any semblance of legit polls
| done nowadays.
|
| Turkey is all over Ethiopia, and Sudan on top of that. And
| Sisi has a paranoid fear of Turkish involvement, either back
| home as a subversion, or a direct attack from Turkish African
| bases.
|
| Turkey staring Sisi down from all sides is by far a much
| bigger concern to him than Ethiopians waving their MiG 21s at
| him.
|
| If he has a gram of gray matter, he will not push Ethiopians
| further towards decision on Turkish military base.
| HorkHunter wrote:
| That is really old news. read the current situation between
| Turkey and Egypt, which is actually getting better
| https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-egypt-diplomacy-
| id...
| yyyk wrote:
| Egypt doesn't have the capability. Their air force has too
| little range and too little refueling capability.
| cbnotfromthere wrote:
| https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/03/31/egypt-sudan-air-
| forces...
| HorkHunter wrote:
| That was the case before they bought the Rafale from France
| I guess
| bumbada wrote:
| They face retaliations with the Aswan dam.
|
| Egypt can not use Suez, because the US, Europe and Israel
| will intervene for sure on that particular case against Egypt
| and Egypt will lose for sure.
| golemiprague wrote:
| Israel will not intervene because it has a peace treaty
| with Egypt which is much more important than starting some
| stupid war on the behalf of foreign countries. Since the
| war with Egypt in 1956 Israel only had wars with entities
| which directly attacked Israel and even in 1956 there were
| some excuses due to attacks by the Fedayun that came from
| Egyptian area and to the fact that the Egyptian blockaded
| the entranc to the Israeli port on the red sea.
|
| If anything they will just dig a canal or create some route
| from Eilat port to Ashdod port and make some profit out of
| the whole situation.
| didibus wrote:
| It's crazy that Great Britain was even ever involved in a treaty
| related to this.
| jcranmer wrote:
| There's generally been a long-standing division between two
| polities, one controlling the upper Nile (modern-day
| Sudan/South Sudan) and one controlling the lower Nile (modern-
| day Egypt), although note the boundary between the two of them
| has shifted over the millennia.
|
| The Islamic caliphate conquered the lower Nile from the
| Byzantines in their initial expansion, but failed to make
| progress on the upper Nile, leading the region to remain
| Christian. The Ottomans eventually displaced the rump states of
| the caliphate as the rulers of Egypt, but made essentially no
| progress again pushing south into Sudan. However, the governor
| of Egypt eventually went on a campaign and actually managed to
| conquer Sudan and it held for a couple of decades later. But
| then Sudan had a successful rebellion against Egyptian rule, so
| the Egyptian governor asked the British (who had by that time
| invaded and colonized Egypt, even though it was still legally
| part of the Ottoman Empire) to help him reconquering Sudan.
| This was successful, leading to Sudan becoming effectively a
| British colony under nominal Egyptian (but not nominally
| Ottoman, unlike actual Egypt) sovereignty [1].
|
| That's how Britain acquired Egypt and Sudan. By the time of the
| first treaty, of course, the Ottoman Empire was carved up for
| good and Egypt became a clear British protectorate and Sudan a
| clear joint-British/English condominium. That's why Britain was
| involved. One of Britain's goals in ruling Sudan was to prevent
| it from becoming an extension of the Egyptian state, and the
| first treaty was an instrument to that end (by requiring Sudan
| to provide Egypt with a reliable supply of water, it's less
| necessary for Egypt to actually physically control Sudan).
|
| [1] Yes, trying to figure out the actual boundaries of the
| Ottoman Empire were in its last century of existence is an
| exercise in frustration.
| wavefunction wrote:
| Is it? I think you'll find similar "involvement" around the
| world. The Great Partition of Pakistan and India, and Pakistan
| and Bangladesh/East-Pakistan spring to mind.
| onetimemanytime wrote:
| At some point there were just a bunch of tribes living around
| the world without much of a horizon. A "real" country played
| them against each other
| LanceH wrote:
| Ah yes, disrupting the historically peaceful coexistence of
| the middle east.
| yyyk wrote:
| The old colonial treaty split the waters 85-15 between Egypt and
| Sudan ignoring all the other African countries. This is
| completely unsustainable, the poor uptream countries must have
| their share.
|
| Egypt just needs to use desalinization and water saving methods
| like other ME states.
| HorkHunter wrote:
| The problem revolves around the filling duration. 3 years is
| way too fast for the downstream. thirsting the downstream is
| hardly ever a solution.
| gorkemyurt wrote:
| well Egypt is the downstream country in this case..
| yyyk wrote:
| Oops. I did know that, but my fingers did not. Thanks, I
| edited the original.
| dragontamer wrote:
| Rivers that flow northward mess up all of our brains a
| little bit,.
| chriselles wrote:
| Egypt literally dies as a nation without Nile water.
|
| Uganda purchasing SU27 advanced long range fighter bombers and
| Egypt recently placing increased emphasis and resources on
| training military units(including western training efforts)
| responsible for upstream Nile force projection is not a
| coincidence.
|
| Nile resource sharing is a massive flash point.
|
| I recall glancing at an engineering report that indicated
| clearing/dredging swamps in Sudan could significantly reduce mile
| water evaporation and increase downstream flow.
|
| But at massive environmental and financial cost.
|
| Perhaps it's time to stock up on Egyptian cotton sheets now,
| since the future of Egyptian cotton may seriously be in doubt.
|
| Tough choices to be made amplified by the need for them to be
| across sovereign borders.
| medium_burrito wrote:
| and the big ass damn in Ethiopia. Given the civil war there,
| don't be surprised in this turning into a bigger conflict.
| reducesuffering wrote:
| Has the world always been this on-the-cusp of war?
|
| Turkey-Greece, Azerbaijan-Armenia, China-Taiwan, Ethiopia,
| Egypt-Uganda, Saudi-Iran-Yemen, Congo, Myanmar, Afghanistan,
| Russia-Ukraine, Morocco-Western Sahara-Algeria, India-China,
| India-Pakistan, Syria
|
| Maybe I've just been watching too much Caspian Report lately,
| and a lot of these issues are a century in the making, but
| damn if it doesn't feel like early WW2 issues arising along
| with the geopolitical implications of climate change.
| DeRock wrote:
| Great video on this subject:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BCY0SPOFpE
| vfclists wrote:
| Egypt is not a "proper" country. It is simply a string of
| settlements along the banks of Nile river and its delta.
|
| Don't let the large trapezoid shape fool you. Most of that is the
| result of a line on the ground drawn by colonialists.
|
| If you want see a country like Egypt look at the Gambia, another
| country drawn along the eponymous river wholly surrounded by
| Senegal, another product of colonial machinations.
| 8note wrote:
| Or look at Canada, a string of settlements on the US border.
|
| See also: Nevada
| BiteCode_dev wrote:
| I seem to recall the US is also the result of lines in the
| ground drawn by colonialists.
| Etheryte wrote:
| Roughly 70% of the world population lives within 5 km of a body
| of water [0]. By this definition, every country is a string of
| settlements along water.
|
| [0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3110782/
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(page generated 2021-04-02 23:02 UTC)