[HN Gopher] Latest EmDrive tests at Dresden University shows it ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Latest EmDrive tests at Dresden University shows it does not
       develop any thrust
        
       Author : sohkamyung
       Score  : 485 points
       Date   : 2021-04-01 03:07 UTC (19 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.grenzwissenschaft-aktuell.de)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.grenzwissenschaft-aktuell.de)
        
       | walrus01 wrote:
       | Considering how much waste heat can be thrown off by high powered
       | microwave stuff (as in the original resonating cavity waveguide
       | horn setup of the emdrive, which people thought to be producing
       | thrust), I am not surprised at all that the apparent thrust was
       | thermal expansion and contractions.
       | 
       | Klystrons and TWTAs are not exactly known for being low wattage
       | pieces of equipment, in terms of their TDP (thermal dissipated
       | power). Ask anyone that's ever worked on a 1000W+ uplink power
       | amplifier for two way geostationary satellite stuff... It's a lot
       | of heat to get rid of.
       | 
       | So these guys are trying to duplicate results of like 1
       | millinewton per kilowatt, meaning you'll need a microwave source
       | of at least 3-4kW, of course it's going to throw off a lot of
       | heat.
       | 
       | I do wonder if any of the scientists trying to duplicate this
       | effect have thought to bring in some commercial industry
       | manufacturers of big C, X, Ku band TWTAs and get their advice on
       | building a test rig.
       | 
       | Or to try modern small but high power GaaN SSPAa vs TWTAs...
       | 
       | https://www.cpii.com/docs/datasheets/17/t22ci_mkt326.pdf
       | 
       | https://www.cpii.com/products.cfm/153
       | 
       | Even very low powered terrestrial microwave radios are a lot of
       | waste heat compared to what they output in rf. The radio head on
       | a ptp microwave dish setup that is a 35W load on -48vdc might be
       | outputting around +18 into the waveguide, equivalent to around
       | 200 milliwatts. The rest is all radiated into the atmosphere and
       | what it's mounted on. This why you'll see ridges of heatsink fins
       | on the body of a full outdoor modern 18 or 23GHz radio. This is
       | considered to be totally normal (a 35W 1024qam dual linear
       | polarity radio with a capacity close to gigabit Ethernet line
       | rate is sure a big improvement over a full 42RU rack size Harris
       | Megastar 64QAM radio consuming 1800W from 25 years ago)
        
         | Gravityloss wrote:
         | Counterfactual: Assume it worked, let's say it's producing a
         | millinewton per kilowatt.
         | 
         | That would mean one could put it on a spinning arm with a
         | generator in the center and make overunity power.
         | 
         | If you ran it at 1 m/s, it would only produce 1 milliwatt (1 mN
         | * 1 m/s). Underunity. If you ran it at a million metres per
         | second, it would produce its own power, 1 kilowatt. And if you
         | ran it at 2 million metres per second, it would produce twice
         | the energy that it consumed.
         | 
         | 2 million metres per second is 2000 km/s and less than 1% of
         | light speed. Relativity can be ignored. Would it be possible to
         | build such a system? In vacuum with UHMWPE wire, one could
         | build a spinning system 2000 kilometers in diameter that would
         | spin 3 times per second. The centripetal acceleration would be
         | 200,000 gees. Wikipedia tells me this is in current
         | ultracentrifuge acceleration range.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracentrifuge
        
       | zackees wrote:
       | This "test" and paper should be seen as possibly political.
        
       | xupybd wrote:
       | If the investigating this drive did nothing else this is a good
       | outcome.
       | 
       | "We were able to greatly improve our measurement technology as a
       | result"
        
         | walrus01 wrote:
         | Depending how far down the rabbit hole they go in weird
         | microwave resonating cavities and power amplifiers, maybe
         | something of practical use for radar systems or other uses of
         | multi-kilowatt microwave band power amplifiers will come out of
         | it.
        
           | p1mrx wrote:
           | Imagine making popcorn in 5 seconds.
        
             | moron4hire wrote:
             | Imagine giving half your building a migraine in 5.1 seconds
             | because you didn't catch it in time and have now burnt the
             | popcorn.
        
               | smcl wrote:
               | What's the burned popcorn->migraine connection?
        
         | rurban wrote:
         | The outcome was known for 4 years already, but then he needed 4
         | years to confirm the first results with fool proof
         | measurements. Nobody else should need to wait years for test
         | results, but the pressure and expected flashback was enourmous.
        
           | cottsak wrote:
           | Yeh this effort to confirm seems outrageous
        
       | deepspace wrote:
       | Well duh. Nobody who actually studied the original results with a
       | critical eye is the least bit surprised. This crap is literally
       | Cold Fusion V2.
        
       | prof-dr-ir wrote:
       | There were days on the internet when a car analogy was
       | appreciated -- let me try here.
       | 
       | Suppose there was a rally driver who would claim that rally cars
       | could go much faster if they were always driven in reverse. He
       | did some rudimentary experiments and might have found a
       | significant improvement. The general public and other racing
       | drivers, who in my analogy can all be wonderful people but happen
       | to know little about the mechanics of cars, are naturally
       | enthusiastic: a potential breakthrough in driving! But clearly we
       | need more experiments. So other rally drivers get to work: they
       | set up an elaborate system with ropes and pulleys so they can
       | reverse the driver's position in the car and run a car as fast as
       | they can, but in reverse, on a test track. What do they find?
       | Sadly, their answer is somewhat inconclusive, probably negative,
       | but perhaps the test track had many bends. So they would like to
       | repeat the experiment on a track with a few more straight
       | segments: they write grant proposals, build a track, and plan
       | other test runs... and all the time their progress is eagerly
       | followed by the general public.
       | 
       | Now suppose you are a car mechanic in all this. What are you to
       | do? This cannot work! It flies completely in the face of the way
       | cars are set up, not to speak of the disadvantages in air flow.
       | So you can loudly dismiss the claim as preposterous early on, but
       | then you will be called a pessimist and the public point out that
       | at least the rally drivers are trying something new - what the
       | bleep have you been doing all this time? So you just wait the
       | whole thing out, see it come... and go.
       | 
       | I guess I should at least be happy that I did not buy any shares
       | in EnDrive Inc?
        
         | josu wrote:
         | This analogy would have also worked for a quantum computer
         | proposal at the beginning of the 20th century.
        
           | moomin wrote:
           | Not really, the objection would have been it was completely
           | impractical, and it was (and borderline still is).
           | 
           | When the facts change, opinions can change.
           | 
           | The objection to the EmDrive is that is that it makes no
           | sense, which is much less likely to change.
        
         | agumonkey wrote:
         | reminds me of the hyperloop bubble a bit
         | 
         | also for all the knowledgeable people hurt by naive
         | enthusiasm.. I guess a healthy dose of cynicism is to find a
         | way to benefit from this and then reuse them for your better
         | thought out projects
        
         | gcatalfamo wrote:
         | There is a blockchain-applied-to-anything-other-than-finance
         | metaphor hidden in this truly sublime analogy.
        
         | the-dude wrote:
         | Have 'reverse car races' ever been a thing outside of NL?
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/a59KyXhk74w?t=177
        
           | vanderZwan wrote:
           | I don't know, but that video obviously needs a bit of Yakety
           | Sax:
           | 
           | https://tubedubber.com/?q=a59KyXhk74w:MK6TXMsvgQg:0:100:174:.
           | ..
        
           | pulse7 wrote:
           | Indian Man Drives Car Backwards On Busy Highways:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aox_4-JNed8
           | 
           | => so it may be faster indeed... :-)
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | For a bit of context: a brand called DAF ("van Doornes
           | Automobiel Fabriek") came up with a very clever drive system,
           | called variomatic. It is still in use today under CVVT in
           | Honda vehicles. DAF had an unfair reputation as a 'womans
           | car' because you didn't have to shift gears at all, nor was
           | there a finicky automatic gearbox to maintain, just two
           | pulleys and a belt for each rear wheel. Which gave it insane
           | acceleration as well because the torque convertor gave
           | maximum torque at the lowest speeds ramping down the torque
           | gradually and continuously as speed increased.
           | 
           | One peculiar aspect of this drive system is that it allows
           | your car to go as fast in reverse as it does forward! Of
           | course the Dutch could not let this go without setting up a
           | race around that theme, which was wildly popular in the past.
           | 
           | Since dafjes have an 'unfair advantage' you also got a
           | secondary class, with other car brands, this is a video of
           | that race.
           | 
           | Here are the DAFs:
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoh8i0jfpTo
           | 
           | That video really hurts to look at by the way, the casual
           | destruction of such a large number of what would be very
           | special classics today is grating, especially that pretty 55
           | coupe is one that I'd love to keep around.
        
             | the-dude wrote:
             | Creative destruction :-)
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Fair enough, it is a bit creative, but only really the
               | first time. They go for twice the original new price now!
        
               | the-dude wrote:
               | If it makes you feel any better : I have very fond
               | memories of these shows ( I was very small still ).
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | My mom had the real thing :)
               | 
               | She'd outpull Porsches just for fun...
        
           | FrojoS wrote:
           | Awesome if you like crashes :-D Starts at 35:10 min
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | Actually, in the US, sometimes demolition derby cars run in
             | reverse, because they get to protect the radiators that
             | way.
        
         | Seb-C wrote:
         | Interesting analogy, but the pessimistic view does not bring
         | any progress. The optimistic view may often be wrong, but when
         | it is actually right, it makes our civilization progress.
         | 
         | Not so long ago, the experts knew and said it was impossible to
         | land and reuse a rocket.
        
           | czzr wrote:
           | Doubtful. Who ever said that about rockets?
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | There was huge skepticism in the industry that landing and
             | re-using first stage boosters was viable. Tony Bruno of ULA
             | in 1015, 7 months before SpaceX recoverd their first
             | booster, on their plan to recover the engine module of
             | Vulcan:
             | 
             | "Our concept for reusability is inside that mathematics and
             | realizes that maybe reusability does not start with entire
             | stages,"
             | 
             | It's not that they thought it was impossible to do at all,
             | but they thought the weight requirement of fuel, landing
             | legs, heat protection, etc would be so high that it would
             | eat up too much of your payload capacity.
        
               | qayxc wrote:
               | Scepticism is way too often confused with negativity,
               | pessimism or even outright hostility.
               | 
               | It's also often overlooked that a solution might not be
               | the best fit for everyone. Just like it's best for the
               | Falcon 9 to discard the second stage.
        
               | simonh wrote:
               | Right, the reason ULA can't adapt Vulcan to land the
               | first stage propulsively is it can't throttle down low
               | enough. It's only barely possible with the F9, and that's
               | because it uses a cluster of smaller engines and happens
               | to have one in the middle.
               | 
               | That wasn't a design choice driven by reusability,
               | originally SpaceX were aiming to recover the stage using
               | parachutes. The original plan was a falcon with a cluster
               | of 5 engines in a ring. Using a cluster of smaller
               | engines was for two reasons. First because they didn't
               | have the resources to develop a new larger engine. Second
               | they wanted to mass produce the engines to get production
               | efficiencies and a bigger run of smaller engines worked
               | better for that.
               | 
               | It just worked out serendipitously that this lead to a
               | design that was very well suited to adapting for
               | propulsive landings. If they'd developed F5 first
               | instead, they wouldn't have been able to land it because
               | without a single centre engine they would need to use at
               | least 2 engines to land, and the thrust would be way too
               | high. Even with a design with a centre engine, the Merlin
               | would be too powerful for the weight of an F5.
               | 
               | This isn't a criticism, it's just the way things worked
               | out.
        
           | marton78 wrote:
           | No. The optimistic view incurs opportunity cost: instead of
           | attempting the impossible, something useful could have been
           | done instead.
        
             | qayxc wrote:
             | I see one little caveat with this argument, though: is it
             | always known in advance that something really is
             | impossible?
             | 
             | As long as there's enough resources to go around to pay 8
             | figure meme-value dollar amounts for digital assets without
             | intrinsic value, I think there's no harm in spending a
             | fraction of that on possibly fruitless research.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | > 8 figure meme-value dollar amounts for digital assets
               | without intrinsic value
               | 
               | The problem is the people who do that are hell bent
               | against letting the government tax them to fund such
               | research, so our research resources are immensely more
               | constrained than they could be.
        
           | codeflo wrote:
           | What you call the "pessimistic view" might be very
           | enthusiastic about projects that are orders of magnitude more
           | likely to work. So in my opinion, the relevant axis is not
           | optimistic vs. pessimistic, but informed vs. uninformed.
           | 
           | Can an outsider with no knowledge of the field make a chance
           | discovery? It's theoretically possible, and we might want to
           | support undirected experimentation for the one in a billion
           | chance that something might work. But we should take those
           | probabilities into account when allocating our collective
           | resources.
        
             | ClumsyPilot wrote:
             | So tell me, how do we calculate probability for yet unknown
             | phenomen? Which is more 'probable' to be correct - string
             | theory or loop quantum gravity?
             | 
             | If I want to investigate einstein rosen bridges, whats the
             | probability I am wasting my time?
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | We had rockets that landed with Apollo. We had rockets that
           | were reused with the shuttle.
           | 
           | Who said it was impossible to combine them? And
           | "impractically expensive and counterproductive" doesn't
           | count.
        
             | DarmokJalad1701 wrote:
             | > We had rockets that landed with Apollo
             | 
             | Correction: We had rockets that could land on the moon.
             | There was no orbital-class rocket that could launch from
             | Earth and land back at launch site (or further downrange).
             | The difference in gravity + lack of atmosphere is a big
             | factor.
             | 
             | It is like saying that the Apollo ascent module could get
             | to orbit and therefore we can clearly make practical SSTO
             | vehicles.
             | 
             | > We had rockets that were reused with the shuttle.
             | 
             | If you consider throwing away the massive external tank and
             | external SRBs (without which it couldn't fly) and
             | completely re-building the three engines after every
             | flight.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | > It is like saying that the Apollo ascent module could
               | get to orbit and therefore we can clearly make practical
               | SSTO vehicles.
               | 
               | If we didn't have to worry about fuel, we could. "put in
               | enough fuel so it can land" is not a _hard_ problem to
               | solve with earth rockets, it just costs payload.
               | 
               | > completely re-building the three engines after every
               | flight
               | 
               | It's complicated but the level of rebuilding was driven
               | more by very high standards than it actually being
               | necessary to make it launchable.
        
         | dmos62 wrote:
         | That's an elaborate "I told you so"!
        
         | nimbius wrote:
         | hello, speaking as a diesel engine mechanic, this is exactly
         | what modern emissions controls have sadly become.
         | 
         | professional drivers (truckers) want to cut out all the
         | emissions control systems because "older trucks get better
         | mileage!" On the face of the issue this seeems to be true, but
         | even after cutting everything out and switching back to low-
         | grade diesel all you've done is create a smoke and soot
         | belching mess from the 1960's. Why is this?
         | 
         | Two reasons: older trucks got great mileage because there was
         | less traffic congestion and fewer weigh station stops, and the
         | national maximum speed limit law in 1973 made sure trucks drove
         | a speed that got great mileage.
        
         | marvin wrote:
         | On the other hand, this is the sort of attitude that would make
         | an informed skeptic reject the theoretical possibility for
         | nuclear power, two weeks before the first nuclear bombs were
         | used in war.
         | 
         | It took a team of physicists four years to disprove this
         | result. Did they do it just to prove a point, or because they
         | didn't understand the car analogy? No, professional scientists
         | are rarely that callous with their time.
         | 
         | There was a slim possibility that our understanding of physics
         | was wrong, and now we know for sure that _this_ was not an
         | instance of that.
         | 
         | But everything that's really interesting happens at the edges.
         | No groundbreaking scientific result, ever, has happened by
         | rejecting out of hand unlikely observations that violate
         | established theory.
        
           | lostcolony wrote:
           | These weren't rejected out of hand - from the very first
           | results there were ripe questions being asked (i.e., why did
           | it take so long to measure thrust, and how were they
           | controlling for thermal expansion, see even here on HN,
           | quoted elsewhere in this thread -
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12962579 )
           | 
           | You're absolutely correct that building better testing to
           | disprove it completely is a good thing to do, just to remove
           | the extreme unlikelihood that one of the most fundamental
           | laws in thermodynamics are incorrect, but extreme skepticism
           | is definitely warranted when the claim is so huge, and people
           | are able to find realistic flaws (sufficiently realistic as
           | to be proven to be correct) that would explain it entirely.
        
             | marvin wrote:
             | I'm not arguing against the points you are making, but they
             | are subtly different from what OP implied. It's hard to
             | make specific claims against a vague analogy that just
             | seems to embody a mindset, but that's what I'm trying to
             | do. And it's not a strawman even if it would happen to miss
             | OP's intent; you see this mindset everywhere.
             | 
             | My point was that OP _appears_ to would have rejected this
             | hypothesis out of hand, and that this approach that would
             | be wrong if everyone that matters did it. Obviously there
             | were people who mattered who did _not_ , as the experiment
             | demonstrates.
             | 
             | A posteriori it's difficult to put numbers on it, but I'd
             | say this experiment was worth doing even if your heuristics
             | put it at a 0.1% chance of succeeding. Obviously that's not
             | the case for Mad Morty's 1000th garage-built perpetual
             | motion machine, but multiple physicists obviously evaluated
             | this hypothesis as less shitty than that.
             | 
             | All in all we would probably agree if we could just zero in
             | on our key points, so I probably shouldn't have spent four
             | paragraphs on this.
        
           | saboot wrote:
           | ? A nuclear power plant was built _before_ the bombs. It 's
           | main purpose was to generate bomb material, but they
           | definitely showed the principle worked and powered a
           | lightbulb with it.
        
             | kevinwang wrote:
             | Not 2 weeks before, but the parent comment applies if you
             | switch out "two weeks" with "a couple years", right?
             | 
             | https://www.atomicarchive.com/history/manhattan-
             | project/p1s2...
        
             | marvin wrote:
             | I was making a rhetorical point, but it works if you switch
             | out 'theoretically' with 'actually', and 'two weeks before'
             | with 'while the first nuclear reactor was supercritical in
             | Chicago'.
             | 
             | I'm pretty certain that the practicality of a nuclear chain
             | reaction wasn't widely accepted in December of 1942, even
             | though fission was first demonstrated by Meitner and Hahn
             | three years before.
        
         | RyEgswuCsn wrote:
         | There is a difference here: cars are built by car mechanics;
         | they know cars inside out --- cars are never designed to drive
         | in reverse. Physicists, on the other hand, didn't invent
         | physics, so they know their current understanding of physics
         | could be wrong.
        
           | gameswithgo wrote:
           | This whole thing has been obviously dumb for a number of
           | reasons not even related to physics. You could almost use it
           | as a good litmus test for who should be running a company, or
           | working at important positions in government.
        
           | plutonorm wrote:
           | This idea that we are so sure of everything is pervasive. The
           | kind of people who like science are often the kind of people
           | who crave certainty. And so for them science becomes like a
           | religion, it provides them with a sense of certainty.
           | Consistency. So when they rally against stories like this
           | what they are really doing is reaffirming their own faith in
           | an orderly universe, reaffirming their own faith in their
           | scientific religion. It serves an emotional need. Which is
           | why, paradoxically, their arguments are not alterable through
           | logic.
           | 
           | If you go read what the real experts in a field have to say
           | about the state of knowledge, they are often incredibly
           | humble. They state that there is so much that they do not
           | know. That are so many things that could be wrong. That there
           | are even bigger pictures just beyond their grasp.
           | 
           | Now these reactionless thruster concepts don't look to be
           | doing too well. But I for one am not particularly convinced
           | that mach 's principle is so stupid.
        
             | ska wrote:
             | > This idea that we are so sure of everything is pervasive
             | 
             | I think this is a common misconception made mostly by
             | people who distrust science as a whole, but not really
             | broadly held. I don't know anyone who understands an area
             | of science at any depth who holds such a view.
             | 
             | The really broad problem is that in science there are
             | things we have very high confidence in, and there are
             | things we have very little confidence in but are the best
             | working models currently - and everything in between.
             | However, communication about where the confidence lies is
             | often poorly done. Many observers who mostly hear about
             | things through the lay press have no good tools to
             | differentiate between "some person with a Ph.D said Y once"
             | and "the vast majority of experts in this field are
             | confident that X".
             | 
             | You are quite right that real experts have a healthy feel
             | for what they don't know - and often humility - but those
             | are often very different things from those that worry
             | people outside the field. All of those same experts could
             | happily give you a list of things they and their colleagues
             | have very good confidence in. It's almost always the right
             | thing to do to accept these and move on.
             | 
             | On the flip side any scientist will tell you there is small
             | but real value at the margins for someone plugging away at
             | a "crazy" theory. They are almost always wrong, but
             | occasionally it turns up something really interesting. The
             | trick is not to involve more people or too much resources,
             | as these are long bets that will mostly fail.
        
             | supernovae wrote:
             | The framing of "science becomes like a religion" is just
             | projection, nothing else...
             | 
             | For many of us, we just accept that science is, what it is,
             | and its the facts we know at this time. That doesn't mean
             | unwavering absolute faith as implied by saying it's
             | religious, it's just we don't feel the need to have
             | knowledge be anything else other than knowledge that we
             | continuously build upon.
             | 
             | Of course in general, lots of scientists know much more
             | than other scientists and there is always bickering, people
             | who have their identities married to it and so much more -
             | but often times those very same people are often religious
             | too so i question if the religiosity argument really exists
             | or if its merely weaponized by people who fear the comfort
             | of others who are ok with science without faith.
        
               | plutonorm wrote:
               | I'm an atheist. I also have a degree in comp sci a degree
               | in Mathematics and a master's degree in mathematics. I
               | read arxiv daily. I love science, I read constantly.
               | Watching the cutting edge of science from afar is a
               | passion of mine. I like to try to hold a holistic vision
               | of it all in my head - an impossible task, but it keeps
               | me busy.
               | 
               | So, I'm not an enemy of science, I just dislike people
               | harping on about 'impossible' from behind their keyboards
               | when they have little more than a rudimentary knowledge
               | of the subject at hand and too high an opinion of
               | authority.
        
               | knodi wrote:
               | well everything is a people thing because we're people.
               | What science offers is proof and data that can be
               | reproduced. So no two scientists bickering is not the
               | same as two theologian.
        
               | twodave wrote:
               | I appreciate the nuance here. As a person of faith one of
               | the things I love most about both science and religion is
               | the sheer amount of mystery there is in all of it. If
               | there were no mystery in either, science would be dead
               | and faith would be unnecessary. Yet science and religion
               | pretend to be opposed.
               | 
               | Throughout history the greatest clashes between faith and
               | science have occurred when scientific understanding
               | threatens the faith-based assumptions of the age. Imagine
               | Abraham arguing with God over his request to sacrifice
               | Isaac. Instead, he reasoned that God would find another
               | way.
               | 
               | Sometimes our understanding of religion limits our
               | thinking with regard to not just science, but our faith
               | as well.
        
             | karmelapple wrote:
             | > The kind of people who like science are often the kind of
             | people who crave certainty.
             | 
             | Just to clarify - are you implying scientists crave
             | certainty, or non-scientists who enjoy reading about
             | science crave certainty?
             | 
             | The life scientists I know are the people in my life who
             | are the most comfortable with uncertainty, or at least can
             | recognize how uncertain the world can be. Perhaps they
             | crave quantifying the uncertainty? But they certainly
             | understand, respect, and live with uncertainty.
        
               | jk7tarYZAQNpTQa wrote:
               | > Just to clarify - are you implying scientists crave
               | certainty, or non-scientists who enjoy reading about
               | science crave certainty?
               | 
               | Mostly the latter, but also the former to some degree.
               | The scientists holding the status quo are often the most
               | resistant to a paradigm shift.
        
               | snowwrestler wrote:
               | I took it to mean the fans of science who pile into
               | forums like HN with expressive enthusiastic skepticism,
               | the kind of people who think experimental physics is like
               | working on a car.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | This sort of argument is routinely used to dismiss the laws
             | of thermodynamics as merely 'theories' and to then move on
             | to the most outrageous violations of known physical law.
             | 
             | We are pretty sure of what we are sure of and we are pretty
             | sure of what we aren't sure of, impressions
             | notwithstanding. Science is a method, not a set of facts,
             | and it has a built in mechanism to allow greater insights
             | to replace lesser ones. As long as we stick to science
             | we'll one day find the limits of what is knowable.
        
               | jchrisa wrote:
               | There is a strong argument to be made that there is no
               | scientific method:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemological_anarchism
        
               | sixstringtheory wrote:
               | Can't say I agree with the idea, but it's certainly
               | interesting to consider and at the least should help
               | strengthen or discard a few assumptions!
               | 
               | I think he's conflating the process with all the other
               | human factors involved. Sure, Galileo maybe did some
               | shady stuff to convince people of his arguments. But that
               | in no way makes a telescope stop working the way it does.
        
               | marvin wrote:
               | I don't think you and GP are in disagreement. The
               | scientific method to let greater insights replace lesser
               | ones is precisely to try and fail at falsifying
               | observations that violate known physical laws.
               | 
               | No physical law is holy for this purpose, although
               | scientists will necessarily have heuristics for what
               | presumed observations they consider good enough to
               | examine closer. Evidently, the EmDrive observations made
               | the threshold! And now we know for sure. Well, close
               | enough, anyway.
        
               | raverbashing wrote:
               | > it has a built in mechanism to allow greater insights
               | to replace lesser ones. As long as we stick to science
               | 
               | Well you're not sticking to science when you assume any
               | non-explained phenomenon is "impossible" and dismiss it
               | outright.
               | 
               | Science has a long list of "impossibles" that have been
               | proven to be possible. Though of course that list was
               | mostly of phenomenon we couldn't ignore.
               | 
               | Saying "EMdrive is impossible given our current knowledge
               | therefore it is not worth measuring" is tautological!
               | 
               | Electricity and magnetism were seen as separate
               | phenomenon as well and it seems a lot of people would be
               | opposed to even try to put a compass next to a wire!
               | 
               | The only thing I know is that the skeptics don't get the
               | Nobel Prizes.
               | 
               | Good, they measured, and as expected, no thrust. Cool.
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | Part of the problem is that it's much easier to come up
               | with a new perpetual motion machine or reactionless drive
               | concept than to prove that it doesn't work. After seeing
               | them all fail, at a certain point people are going to
               | stop paying them any attention. Oh, this time it uses _X_
               | force in _Y_ configuration? Go away until you have data,
               | we could be more profitably spending time on just about
               | anything else.
        
               | JackFr wrote:
               | What makes this article so refreshing and so compelling
               | is that they replicated the NASA results, and then
               | explained and eliminated them. Another "We don't see
               | anything and it's impossible anyway so you guys are
               | idiots or charlatans" would not be helpful. This is.
        
               | Brian_K_White wrote:
               | Just because nothing is 100% knowable ultimately, doesn't
               | mean all unknowns are equal.
               | 
               | Everyone who doesn't want to invest 10000 human lives and
               | a small countries total resources trying to find out if
               | maybe oxidization isn't _really_ exothermic but just
               | somehow always looks that way (is fire hot?), isn 't
               | guilty of being incurious or religious.
               | 
               | Come on now.
        
               | Aeolun wrote:
               | > As long as we stick to science we'll one day find the
               | limits of what is knowable.
               | 
               | I'm rather inclined to believe the opposite. That if we
               | stick to science, we never will.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Feel free to go to aromatherapy, crystals, alchemy,
               | astrology, free energy, ley lines, quackery and so on.
               | I'll be on the other side of this debate and I'll stick
               | to science. It has worked better than any other mechanism
               | that we've thought of to-date to give us actionable
               | insights as well as a ton of abstract knowledge.
        
               | Aeolun wrote:
               | Huh? I was more trying to imply that there are probably
               | no limits to what is knowable. Or at least, if we stay
               | scientific, we should never believe we've reached the
               | limits.
        
             | techdragon wrote:
             | Thank you for more eloquently expressing a sentiment that I
             | have harboured for some time. After quoting the relevant
             | Cave Johnson quote from PORTAL 2 so many times... it
             | clicked and I came to the realisation that there is only
             | one way to "do science" you "throw it at the wall and see
             | if it sticks".
             | 
             | At a fundamental level, you must throw your results at the
             | wall of publication and see if they stick, the only way
             | science sticks is when it can be replicated by others. It
             | remain on the wall!
             | 
             | When people's refutation of things like the em-drive is
             | simply "this can't work" my response is "prove it" not
             | because I believe, but because "can't work" just isn't
             | science, science is done by proving that something "does
             | not work". That means for something like the em-Drive you
             | prove it doesn't do what it claims, you prove it by
             | replication and better measurement... and you learn how to
             | build things better, learn how to measure better and that's
             | the value of these efforts! Or you prove it by detailed non
             | destructive analysis of the experiment apparatus and prove
             | your work by detailed physical simulation, publishing your
             | code to prove you didn't make any mistakes yourself! You
             | cannot just give the answer you must show your work if you
             | expect to go around calling what you do "science".
             | Providing such proof is not a waste, or bad science, it is
             | the very essence of science itself.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | You are missing a very important part of how science is
               | done: science starts with a hypothesis, the refutation or
               | confirmation of that hypothesis is done by experiment.
               | Plenty of science has been locked into the theoretical
               | phase for decades before experimental verification could
               | be obtained.
               | 
               | If all we did was experiments we'd surely find some
               | interesting stuff but without theory to guide where to do
               | the next set of experiments science would be very
               | inefficient. It's the closing of the loop that powers
               | this tremendous progress you see from the renaissance to
               | today.
               | 
               | Without that we'd be stuck in alchemy, astrology and
               | other pseudo sciences.
        
               | adwn wrote:
               | > _science starts with a hypothesis_
               | 
               | No, science starts with an observation which is not
               | explained by the prevailing theory. _Then_ you form a
               | hypothesis, etc.
               | 
               | At least in principle. The reality of science is a lot
               | messier.
        
               | MereInterest wrote:
               | I think there's one more step that goes a bit earlier in
               | the process. Before an observation is made, there needs
               | to be a choice on what experiments are done. Typically,
               | those measurements will be done with one of two goals.
               | The first is to measure a free parameter in the theory
               | that isn't well-constrained by existing experiments.
               | (e.g. "According to Maxwell's equations, the speed of
               | light should be constant. Let's measure that constant
               | value." [0]) The second is to find an unintuitive
               | prediction from current models, then measure what happens
               | in those circumstances. (e.g. "According to special
               | relativity, passage of time should vary based on
               | velocity. That's weird. Let's measure and see if it is
               | the case." [1])
               | 
               | The purpose of these is to narrow down which experiments
               | are being performed, trying to choose experiments that
               | will try their hardest to break an existing theory.
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_light#Time_of_
               | flight_...
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hafele%E2%80%93Keating_
               | experim... (This article currently has an incorrect edit
               | made yesterday. It seems to be based on a mistaken
               | assumption that the rotating earth is a stationary
               | reference frame. The opening paragraph should read "were
               | consistent" rather than "were not consistent".)
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | So much for theoretical physics then. Or Einstein's
               | 'gedanken experimenten'.
        
               | electrograv wrote:
               | Science must find a balance between extremes in how
               | experimental resources are invested:
               | 
               | Extreme "Exploitation" Bias: _"For maximally economical
               | progress, experimental physics must strictly stay within
               | the hard boundaries established by theoretical
               | frameworks."_
               | 
               | Extreme "Exploration" Bias: _"For maximally fundamental
               | progress, experimental physics must question all
               | theoretical assumptions and boundaries with extreme
               | suspicion."_
               | 
               | It makes sense to diversify the kind of experimental
               | investments we make along this risk/reward or
               | exploration/exploitation spectrum. There are unique
               | dangers if we weight too heavily on either extreme.
        
             | Certhas wrote:
             | > If you go read what the real experts in a field have to
             | say...
             | 
             | If you go to read what the real experts in the field have
             | to say then you would learn that not a single one of them
             | thought that the EM Drive had even the slightest chance of
             | being true.
             | 
             | In fact all the publications and work on EM Drive strictly
             | avoided the real experts (physicists). They were all
             | engineering journals. A paper that claims experimental
             | evidence that overturns all physical theories from Newton
             | onwards that's very telling isn't it?
        
             | kosievdmerwe wrote:
             | Scientism. The deification of scientists and our current
             | models.
             | 
             | Which is ironic as we know our models are wrong somehow as
             | we can't mesh Quantum mechanics and general relativity.
             | There is clearly some undiscovered idea or principal.
             | 
             | Science is about the process not about the body of
             | knowledge we amassed. Science is about doing experiments to
             | poke at the gaps of our knowledge. Not to like the Ancient
             | Greeks debate our way to truth or worse declare something
             | false based clearly on our flawed understanding.
        
               | supernovae wrote:
               | Do you really believe this?
               | 
               | Celebrity scientists aren't deified... in fact, they have
               | a tough life because people assume they're all knowing.
               | Look at our man Neil DeGrasse who called a Bull a Cow
               | because where he lives in NYC everything is a cow and he
               | got ripped by other scientists for being stupid.
               | 
               | There is no universality to people period... i'm not sure
               | why you feel its important to label some as "scientism"
               | when there is no such thing as "scientism" with any
               | universality.
        
               | kosievdmerwe wrote:
               | Scientists aren't deified because people assume they're
               | all knowing?
               | 
               | As for scientism, there's a lot of people in this thread
               | who essentially said "We could have known it wouldn't
               | work by basic application of conservation of momentum".
               | Or some other principal held to the standard of absolute
               | truth.
               | 
               | Our knowledge of the world is faulty and incomplete. All
               | scientific knowledge is subject to tweaking or
               | replacement based on experimental evidence. Not the other
               | way around.
               | 
               | We have models and guesses of how the world works, we
               | don't have its source code.
        
               | andi999 wrote:
               | Actually the whole point why this EM drive is interesting
               | actually is that the measurements contradicted
               | conservation of momentum. Otherwise having a small effect
               | not contradicting any established physics is basically
               | worthless.
        
               | kosievdmerwe wrote:
               | Sure, but if the contradiction bore out, then what's
               | false (at least in some edge cases) is established
               | physics not the experiment result.
               | 
               | The strength of the established physics just means that
               | there is an extremely high chance that the EM drive is
               | experimental error, especially with the small effect
               | size, rather than something novel.
        
           | arbitrage wrote:
           | > cars are never designed to drive in reverse.
           | 
           | that's just plain wrong, friend.
        
           | pif wrote:
           | > they know their current understanding of physics could be
           | wrong.
           | 
           | Sure, we do know!
           | 
           | And we know how to recognise when someone masters current
           | literature (a.k.a. factual knowledge) and proposes a
           | breaktrough in a yet uncovered field, and when someone is
           | speaking out of his ... nothing!
           | 
           | If you prefer a non-car analogy: we all do _know_ that a
           | hundred consecutive heads is possible, still you are not
           | going to bet your week pay on it, even if you were promised
           | 2^100 weeks of pay in return.
        
             | galangalalgol wrote:
             | There are plenty of cases where someone who doesn't
             | understand the underlying theory has contributed due to the
             | outsider effect or just pure luck. The hype, and the
             | swindling are not ok, but when an organization like NASA
             | thinks they maybe successfully reproduced an experiment
             | that invalidates a law of nature you have to keep trying.
             | Sure I'm hoping for new science, always, because that is
             | more fun, but mostly you need to know for sure what the
             | experimental error was so that you don't repeat it in an
             | experiment whose result you aren't as skeptical of.
        
               | arbitrage wrote:
               | > There are plenty of cases where someone who doesn't
               | understand the underlying theory has contributed due to
               | the outsider effect or just pure luck
               | 
               | Are you talking about anyone who was born in the last 100
               | years?
        
               | dotancohen wrote:
               | Lemaitre?
        
               | tobmlt wrote:
               | A low number of dollars spent to put to bed an idea that
               | would have upended physics is a fairly cost effective
               | play in the risk to reward game. That's what it comes
               | down too.
               | 
               | Negative results are good. Utter quackery is not good.
               | But hard data from experiment is usually not quackery.
               | Even if the whole thing stands outside the established
               | paradigm. I'd argue we could stand a bit more of it, in
               | this age of funding bandwagons and careerism.
        
               | thenewwazoo wrote:
               | > Utter quackery is not good.
               | 
               | That's the OP's point. The EmDrive is utter quackery. It
               | _cannot_ exist because it _necessarily_ violates the laws
               | of thermodynamics. Anything that disproves those will
               | literally undermine the _entire_ foundation of what we
               | understand about the universe. It would be directly
               | comparable to discovering that the earth is flat.
        
               | tobmlt wrote:
               | What an exciting time we live in, where links between
               | quantum mechanics, thermodynamics, and GR May finally be
               | emerging in physics! What will the final ramifications
               | be? Hopefully something new comes of it. If there are
               | cases where conservation laws break down, or physical
               | principles constrain one another in unforeseen ways, and
               | they can be accessed at human scale, what an exciting
               | thing! I'd guess you mostly feel this way too if I have
               | not yet imposed any quackery on you, and suppose where we
               | diverge is I do not see the harm in exploration as far
               | out as the experimenter can dream to go. --Even if there
               | is no theory for it. I know, the horror! Do I think it
               | will work? Well heck no. But that does not mean I wish
               | the attempt to be quashed like I'm the inquisition. On
               | the contrary, I bid them good luck. And if they do have
               | good luck, they better have some results that are easily
               | duplicated. I hope they do overthrow the foundations of
               | physics. Why not? The earth will still possess curvature,
               | and all the extant physics will still be as approximately
               | right, and beautiful, as it was yesterday.
        
               | nwallin wrote:
               | We already know the laws of thermodynamics has
               | exceptions. In very small systems, the entropy of a
               | system fluctuates randomly - up _and_ down. A light ray
               | traveling over extremely long distances will have its
               | energy reduced through red shifting, and that energy
               | doesn 't "go" anywhere, it is destroyed. In both of these
               | regimes, over extremely small scales and extremely large
               | scales, there are exceptions carved out of the laws of
               | thermodynamics.
               | 
               | We know for certain that our understanding of physics is
               | incomplete. General relativity (as formulated) is
               | certainly wrong, because it precludes the possibility of
               | small things existing; and yet they do. Quantum mechanics
               | (as formulated) is certainly wrong, because it precludes
               | the possibility of curved spacetime, and yet we know
               | spacetime is curved.
               | 
               | There is, of course, a minuscule possibility that the
               | emdrive actually works. It almost certainly doesn't.
               | Ballpark one in a thousand. But we can't exclude the
               | possibility that it works, based on the principle that
               | the the laws of thermodynamics, which already has two
               | exceptions, cannot have a third exception.
               | 
               | There's big talk about humanity traveling to other stars,
               | colonizing other star systems, colonizing the galaxy and
               | so forth. For this to happen, we would have to be wrong
               | about physics. There's simply not any way to do it by
               | building on the foundation of what we understand about
               | the universe. So investing in low probability speculative
               | ideas like emdrive is still necessary, even though for
               | any given idea, there are lots of nines that say it won't
               | work.
        
               | ChrisLomont wrote:
               | >the laws of thermodynamics has exceptions
               | 
               | No, they don't. The "laws" you learn in high school are
               | large scale approximations to the actual rules, which is
               | codified in stat mech.
               | 
               | It's like claiming solids are not solid because atoms...
               | Of course physicists know all this.
               | 
               | >General relativity (as formulated) is certainly wrong,
               | because it precludes the possibility of small things
               | existing
               | 
               | Having worked on GR stuff for a long time, this is news.
               | GR most certainly allows any size thing to exist - it's a
               | continuous theory.
               | 
               | >Quantum mechanics (as formulated) is certainly wrong,
               | because it precludes the possibility of curved spacetime
               | 
               | No, it does not. QM in curved spacetime is so old and
               | well understood it has a Wikipedia page [1] - from which
               | you can start digging back into the literature.
               | 
               | You should really google such claims when making them to
               | be sure you understand what you're claiming.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_field_theory_in
               | _curved...
        
               | galangalalgol wrote:
               | The guy had an experiment, his explanation for the
               | results were utter quackery. I don't think the people at
               | NASA expected his explanation was the right one, but they
               | didn't have one so they replicated. MIT had an
               | explanation of the results that was not due to thermal
               | effects, and wasn't the originator's explanation. It
               | didn't upend thermodynamics. The problem wasn't people
               | exploring a tricky experiment, it was people buying in to
               | a specific explanation of the experiment prematurely.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | sidlls wrote:
               | Can you name some of those cases?
        
               | ChrisLomont wrote:
               | >There are plenty of cases where someone who doesn't
               | understand the underlying theory has contributed due to
               | the outsider effect or just pure luck.
               | 
               | There are far more such cases where the outsider was
               | wrong, so many more of these, that using the extremely
               | rare event to claim this may be one is simply terrible
               | reasoning. It is far more likely that this is yet another
               | crackpot pushing nonsense.
               | 
               | No outside has found a breakthrough that for decades (the
               | length the EmDrive people have been making noise) was
               | discarded. In fact, when an outsider finds something
               | useful or novel, for a long time now the science
               | community nearly immediately understands and embraces it.
               | 
               | This is the opposite of that.
        
             | RyEgswuCsn wrote:
             | > we all do know that a hundred consecutive heads is
             | possible, still you are not going to bet your week pay on
             | it, even if you were promised 2^100 weeks of pay in return
             | 
             | The expected reward is just one-week's pay --- you have to
             | offer better than that with all the uncertainty ;)
             | 
             | What if the reward is potentially infinite amount of money?
             | If the investigation proved our current understanding of
             | physics wrong, that could lead to historic breakthroughs in
             | natural science.
             | 
             | Better yet, we don't know what the odd is. It might only
             | need 32 consecutive heads.
        
             | rini17 wrote:
             | I'd be very curious how it's possible to have 2^100 of
             | anything :)
        
               | pif wrote:
               | Oh, it's just 1024^10, a bit more than 10^30, or 10
               | million moles.
               | 
               | A water molecule contains 18 nucleons, thus a mole of
               | water weighs 18 grams. 10 million moles of water are 180
               | cubic metres: an Olympic pools contains an order of
               | magnitude more moles than that! ;-)
               | 
               | Sure, I hope nobody is paid so poorly that 2^100 times
               | its week salary exists!
        
               | mannerheim wrote:
               | There are certainly people who aren't paid anything.
        
           | shawnz wrote:
           | The design of a car is obviously limited by fundamental
           | aspects of physics which are outside of the control of car
           | manufacturers. For example, car manufacturers didn't invent
           | combustion, aerodynamics, etc.
        
           | Certhas wrote:
           | I agree that on this point the analogy is weak. But it
           | describes the ignorance of all those hyping it up well.
           | 
           | People are generally aware that if someone is presenting a
           | perpetuum mobile they are wrong. Free energy doesn't exist.
           | The fact that you can't have free momentum is just as strong
           | (and has been known longer), yet less widely intuited.
           | 
           | Let me give you an analogy though:
           | 
           | Let's say someone proposes a water base perpetuum mobile like
           | this:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpetual_motion#/media/File:W.
           | ..
           | 
           | It only works if you place the machine under a massive
           | waterfall though. Now this would be very difficult to refute
           | experimentally, because you have to account for all possible
           | interactions in the waterfall.
           | 
           | That's what the EM Drive is. A perpetuual motion machine
           | built in such a way that there's a lot of energy going around
           | and it's hard to eliminate all spurious interactions.
        
           | zackees wrote:
           | "The Taylor drive is not in a cavity so of course it has zero
           | thrust!"
           | 
           | From one of the scientists working in the field. Who doesn't
           | want to be named because that's the state of the world today.
        
           | ChrisLomont wrote:
           | > Physicists, on the other hand, didn't invent physics, so
           | they know their current understanding of physics could be
           | wrong.
           | 
           | They also know they have experimented _extensively_ over the
           | region this effect claims to exist, and have found nothing of
           | the kind for well over a century, and that if the EmDrive did
           | what some claimed, it would violate literally thousands to
           | millions of experiments already conducted.
           | 
           | Claiming physicists don't know everything about possible
           | physics does not imply they don't know a tremendous amount
           | about the places they have extensive experimental and
           | theoretical agreement. Those places are not likely to ever
           | change.
        
           | ModernMech wrote:
           | It's tough to know absolutely everything about a complex
           | dynamic system, even if it's built by humans. Take the
           | economy, for instance. Invented by humans, made up of humans
           | and human technologies and concepts, and yet people only have
           | vague ideas about how to control it.
           | 
           | Or take computers for that matter. People designed and built
           | them from scratch. Someone had to design and lay out the
           | transistors on the CPU, and presumably they know everything
           | about how to do that. And yet we are currently trying to
           | figure whether there's an ordering to switching the
           | transistors on and off that would imbue the CPU with human-
           | level intelligence. There are plenty of people who know
           | computers inside and out, yet there are still questions that
           | need answers. We have a whole discipline called Computer
           | Science that performs experiments on computers for the
           | purpose of answering these questions.
        
           | arethuza wrote:
           | I really don't think cars are designed by the same people who
           | end up fixing them - ease of repair really doesn't seem to be
           | a big factor in lots of designs.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Ease of repair is a factor, but there are other factors.
             | Safety and Fuel Economy (Aerodynamics and mass) are more
             | important than ease of repair so many things to make it
             | easy to repair just get tossed out.
        
             | sandworm101 wrote:
             | Ease of repair has largely been replaced by lack of need of
             | repair. Cars, especially IC engines, are so much more
             | reliable today that repair is relatively rare. Engine
             | rebuilds are almost unheard of on small cars. Transmissions
             | regularly outlast the chasis. Even tires rarely get flats.
             | People now expect to drive many tens or even a hundred
             | thousand miles without engine failure, on no more
             | maintenance than an occasional oil change.
        
         | kungito wrote:
         | But what if it turns out that the experiment showed that cars
         | really are faster in reverse? It turns out that by driving in
         | reverse you create anti-drag in front of the car which pulls it
         | forward. It's so simple yet powerful. How did you not think of
         | this? Now everyone must think you are stupid because you were
         | being so negative while everyone believed in it. Time to open
         | the internet to see the reaction... Wow, no one cares. It turns
         | out unless Apple releases this in their new car as iEM Drive
         | with exclusive iEM Aqua car paint finish no one would know or
         | care about this.
        
           | heavenlyblue wrote:
           | It only happens in periodic dramas made for 15-year olds
        
         | Chris2048 wrote:
         | > Now suppose you are a car mechanic in all this .. the
         | disadvantages in air flow
         | 
         | Not sure a mechanic is better than anyone with understanding of
         | car dynamics, but the "air flow" argument is the key to this.
         | 
         | Who are the experts on emDrive tech, and what principle does
         | the emDrive violate? If you can't say, then you _are_ indeed a
         | pessimist.
        
           | prof-dr-ir wrote:
           | > the "air flow" argument is the key to this.
           | 
           | I would point out that cars have gears, but then someone
           | would say that in the US they do not, and I would have to
           | explain that that is not the case, actually, and it would all
           | get very tiring very quickly.
           | 
           | > Who are the experts on emDrive tech, and what principle
           | does the emDrive violate?
           | 
           | A physicist would point out that momentum is conserved, so
           | nothing can start moving without something else moving in the
           | opposite direction, but then someone would point out that
           | cars seem to be able to do just that, and then I would point
           | out this big round thing underneath a car, and it would all
           | get very tiring very quickly.
        
             | Chris2048 wrote:
             | > I would point out that cars have gears
             | 
             | How does that relate to airflow?
        
               | j4yav wrote:
               | It doesn't have anything to do with airflow but does with
               | whether or not cars are faster in reverse.
        
               | Chris2048 wrote:
               | But it's a response to me pointing out air-flow is
               | relevant (key).
        
               | j4yav wrote:
               | He is saying that air flow is not more important than
               | gearing, but if he were to raise it he'd end up in a
               | never ending series of replies debating the details but
               | missing the point.
        
               | Chris2048 wrote:
               | Sure, but I don't agree gearing is in the same category
               | of the specific thing I mentioned. Would he also end up
               | in a never-ending series of replies wrt airflow too? If
               | not, it has nothing to do with my point, if so why change
               | the topic..
        
           | pif wrote:
           | Literally in the first paragraph on Wikipedia:
           | 
           | It is purported to generate thrust by reflecting microwaves
           | internally in the device, in violation of the law of
           | conservation of momentum and other laws of physics.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EmDrive
           | 
           | Extraordinary evidence is required for extraordinary claims.
           | Any hint of evidence at all is required for idiot claims
           | before waisting people's time.
        
         | Certhas wrote:
         | This seems a lost battle. Every EM Drive discussion I have seen
         | has been dominated by non-scientists pontificating about how we
         | don't know anything, and our theories might be wrong, and we
         | should keep an open mind ...
        
         | foreigner wrote:
         | What you do is short them on the stock market. Put your money
         | where your mouth is!
        
           | bjoernbu wrote:
           | How exactly could this be done reliably? With shorts you have
           | to commit to a timeframe for not only finding evidence to
           | reject the claim but also for the news to break and convince
           | other investors.
           | 
           | Meanwhile you can be targetted by financial actors that play
           | your positions on the stock market, at times even
           | disregarding the atual company behind it. Further you have to
           | mind monetary policy. If faith in the stock suffers compared
           | to other stock but the overall market just goes up and up,
           | your shorts have a problem again.
           | 
           | Personally, I have no informed opinion on EmDrive, but I have
           | been very pesimistic about companies in the past and I am
           | about some right now. Still, I do not think that shorts are
           | anything appropirate for me. I'd much rather buy
           | competitior's stock than burn myself with shorts or waste
           | hundreds of hours getting into the financial market that I
           | could also use to create value in my actual job/profession
        
           | moonbug wrote:
           | ala, he'd rather put is mouth where our eyeballs are.
        
           | sideshowb wrote:
           | An irrational market can stay irrational for longer than you
           | can stay solvent
        
           | Radim wrote:
           | How would that work, in the analogy?
           | 
           | Short the individual researchers? Research projects? Short
           | private funding?
           | 
           | Scams like EmDrive (but there are countless others - "save
           | the planet with X") may be amusing, as long as it's on
           | someone else's dime. Live and let live.
           | 
           | But the minute they manage to convince enough people, whether
           | by virtue or shady marketing, it becomes a political problem.
           | And then it's your problem too, through taxation and "too big
           | to fail", no matter your position. _Shorting on the stock
           | market_ gets you only so far, and only for entities that
           | actually exist on the stock market.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | The stock market currently thinks Gamestop is the most
           | revolutionary company in the world.
        
         | andlier wrote:
         | This reminded me of the extended range with reversed ski box
         | for tesla. https://electrek.co/2020/03/24/tesla-model-3-roof-
         | rack-box-r...
        
           | electrograv wrote:
           | Ironically, this serves as an excellent refutation of the
           | above analogy's goal (to scoff at EMDrive experiments):
           | 
           | * Imagine telling a mechanic that mounting a ski box on your
           | car with the fat/blunt end pointed forward seems to improve
           | fuel economy vs being mounted the other way.
           | 
           | * The mechanic believes it's absurd to claim you can improve
           | fuel economy from a change that _increases wind drag_ , so
           | therefore your experiment is wrong since it seems to
           | contradict established theory -- case closed.
           | 
           | * Imagine that you more carefully measure, and find that it
           | still seems to work surprisingly well (though also
           | mysteriously reducing braking and cornering performance)!
           | 
           | * The mechanic still denies the result (which is unfair), and
           | questions your test methodology and demands replications of
           | the experiment (which is fair).
           | 
           | * Imagine someone else tries to replicate the experiment with
           | a differently shaped ski box (i.e. not an airfoil, or with
           | the airfoil shape vertically inverted), and fails to
           | reproduce your results.
           | 
           | * The mechanic community concludes that the original result
           | was obviously just experimental error, since the latter
           | failure to replicate aligns with current theoretical
           | consensus of what _should_ happen.
           | 
           | In a similar way, early pioneers experimenting with winged
           | aircraft design were laughed/scoffed at endlessly by
           | established scientists/engineers of the era, ridiculed and
           | crackpots wasting valuable time and resources.
           | 
           | The aerodynamics of the airfoil (which also explains the
           | above ski box phenomenon) is an extremely non-obvious
           | emergent effect, and even to this day is not as fully
           | understood as most people probably assume.
        
             | bena wrote:
             | It was an aerodynamics engineer who suggested flipping the
             | box around.
        
         | Aeolun wrote:
         | I have zero doubt that this whole thing could have been applied
         | to the first airplane, or to a thousand other firsts.
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | Re the airflow point, many cars are indeed MORE aerodynamic
         | than normal in reverse, particularly hatchbacks.
         | 
         | It's best to have a smooth, progressive tail to minimise flow
         | separation at the rear of the car (think of an airfoil shape -
         | quite blunt at the front, thin at the back).
         | 
         | Hatchbacks often have very flat rear ends compared to the front
         | which usually has a more progressive slope. A famous example is
         | the Austin Allegro, but it's actually quite common.
        
         | staticassertion wrote:
         | All the time on HN I read posts saying how we should celebrate
         | negative results. Here we have a negative result.
         | 
         | Why not celebrate it?
        
           | prof-dr-ir wrote:
           | Claim: banging your head against the wall makes you smarter.
           | 
           | Experimenters: that sounds amazing! So we tried. We can
           | report that all test subjects reported a massive headache.
           | Unfortunately none seemed to get significantly smarter.
           | 
           | You: a negative result, well done! Time to celebrate!
           | 
           | And now I hope you will accept my apologies for exaggerating
           | to the point of being rude, all in reply to your entirely
           | reasonable question.
           | 
           | I guess my point is this. There has to be a cutoff where a
           | claim is too obviously incorrect and testing is simply not
           | useful any more. But the natural cutoff point depends
           | enormously on perspective. Are you a car mechanic, a rally
           | driver, or a complete layman? And as the latter, who do you
           | trust?
           | 
           | My original comment was written to highlight the frustrating
           | perspective of the car mechanic. But an interested layperson
           | (or a non-expert handing out grant money) might have the more
           | difficult time.
        
             | dotancohen wrote:
             | > I guess my point is this. There has to be a cutoff
             | > where a claim is too obviously incorrect and testing
             | > is simply not useful any more.
             | 
             | Such as claims of giant lizards ruling the Earth, or claims
             | that all matter (and time!) was once a singularity, or
             | claims that man had descended from - get this - apes?
        
               | prof-dr-ir wrote:
               | Emphatically not. There is an important difference
               | between 'outlandish' and 'in flagrant contradiction with
               | billions of experimental results [0]'.
               | 
               | I am not saying that the difference is always easy to
               | spot, but I think that you cannot deny that it exists.
               | 
               | [0] For a crude estimate, see 'number of collisions per
               | second' at https://home.cern/resources/faqs/facts-and-
               | figures-about-lhc . And those people are looking _really
               | hard_ for possible violations of the law of conservation
               | of momentum: in this context it is called  'missing
               | transverse energy' and it is a key method in the search
               | for new physics.
        
             | microtherion wrote:
             | But it seems to me that in the earlier EmDrive experiments,
             | there were forces found that were not explained
             | satisfactorily. Now, through better experimental controls,
             | all of these have been accounted for. That sounds like
             | valuable research to me.
        
               | mLuby wrote:
               | Good point. It should both make future experiments more
               | accurate and also debunk similar claims more easily.
               | 
               | Science isn't a bunch of scientists saying "we doubt
               | it'll work"--science is a bunch of scientists
               | experimentally _proving_ it doesn 't work.
               | 
               | The people funding the scientists decide what's worth
               | testing. In this case, the possible benefit _vastly_
               | outweighed the cost of testing.
               | 
               | To fix the head-to-wall metaphor: in some experiments,
               | subjects who banged their heads against the wall reported
               | being cured of all mental illness. However more rigorous
               | tests showed this remarkable effect was actually a
               | placebo caused by the subjects believing they were
               | involved in making history.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | junon wrote:
       | Kudos to the team working on this, it's not often we get
       | definitive findings and an update about something that was
       | "futurology hype" like this.
       | 
       | Not a failure. It's just science. Cool stuff either way.
        
       | binarycoffee wrote:
       | Just to be clear, for most anyone with low-thrust measurement
       | experience, thermal drift had been suspect nr 1 from the moment
       | Eagleworks published their work. Here is a comment I made back at
       | that time:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12962579
       | 
       | But then, nobody had Tajmar's perseverance; kudos to his team!
        
         | unityByFreedom wrote:
         | Lol at the lone reply you received. You called it and that's
         | what you got. I hope we can learn to look at all points from
         | more perspectives in the future.
        
           | waheoo wrote:
           | Day made. Good chuckle that.
        
           | IshKebab wrote:
           | I mean, most people didn't believe that this was real. It's
           | not like he was the lone voice saying "nah this is surely
           | bollocks...".
        
         | Sebb767 wrote:
         | Sorry if this is a stupid question, but what is thermal drift
         | in this context?
        
           | binarycoffee wrote:
           | Not a stupid question -- sorry for the jargon.
           | 
           | It is what is mentioned in this fragment of the article:
           | 
           | "When power flows into the EmDrive, the engine warms up. This
           | also causes the fastening elements on the scale to warp,
           | causing the scale to move to a new zero point"
           | 
           | Basically, thermal expansion of the thruster and the
           | measurement device causes the rest position of the thrust
           | balance to drift with time, which is hard to differentiate
           | from the actual thrust generated. This is most critical when
           | the thrust-to-weight ratio is low, as is the case here.
        
       | fnord77 wrote:
       | what are the inventor's credentials? I searched and searched and
       | could only find vague descriptions like "scientist"
        
       | bitcharmer wrote:
       | Why is this subject coming back?
       | 
       | A while ago they conducted this experiment in Earth's orbit and
       | found that the drive basically pushes itself away from Earth's
       | electromagnetic field. Sadly it's useless in deep space.
        
         | yellowapple wrote:
         | I mean, that sounds like something that could be pretty handy
         | for LEO satellites at least, though there are surely more
         | effective and less convoluted ways of achieving that.
        
       | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
       | Ah, those April 1 jokes. Don't fall for them. Of course it did
       | develop trust. It is the future of space propulsion.
        
         | qayxc wrote:
         | Too bad the article dates two weeks back :D
        
         | rurban wrote:
         | Oh, bad timing. Tajmar worked 4 years to verify the results.
         | But now quacks can blame April 1.
         | 
         | Look at the dates: the conference papers were published march
         | 17-19. The interview was march 21.
         | 
         | Ion drives are the future, but hopefully gravitational drives.
         | Otherwise we will not get far
        
           | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
           | Shhh, stop ruining _my_ joke!
        
         | Chris2048 wrote:
         | What is the likelihood that these drives _do_ work and the team
         | just want a head start on development?
        
           | 127 wrote:
           | What is the likelihood that I win the lottery every week for
           | a year straight?
        
             | Chris2048 wrote:
             | How is that relevant?
        
               | krageon wrote:
               | Both of those hypotheticals don't really make sense.
        
               | Chris2048 wrote:
               | Why? Are incentives not a thing?
        
           | majewsky wrote:
           | University professors are almost never the ones making the
           | big money from a new discovery, so it wouldn't make sense for
           | this guy to put his reputation on the line for a few bucks.
        
       | vlovich123 wrote:
       | For everyone that's expressing a view like "what a waste of
       | time", consider this. This hypothesis was by a respected
       | scientist. The experiments have been done by lots of labs. There
       | has been a reasonable position the skeptics have taken
       | throughout. It still has taken a very long time of a bunch of
       | smart people on how to build an experiment to rule these kinds of
       | things out. That means theories have tighter bounds. Technology
       | has been improved in the area which can have knock on beneficial
       | educational and technological effects, etc. Being able to quickly
       | and efficiently rule out hypotheses is a hallmark of the area
       | that science shines in. Being able to say "no, definitely not"
       | with very good certainty is a useful thing to this disciplines
       | toolbelt. From that perspective it's a pure win and worth any
       | distraction on the scale of all human investment globally.
        
         | spaetzleesser wrote:
         | So far I think it has been handled well. Let's just hope this
         | doesn't end up like cold fusion where no amount of proof that
         | it doesn't work can't make it go away and conspiracy theories
         | keep growing.
        
         | plutonorm wrote:
         | Yeah this is great - they have made an advance in how they can
         | make measurements. There will be many more reaction-less
         | thruster concepts to analyse in the future. Now we have a much
         | better idea how to test them effectively.
        
           | qayxc wrote:
           | These measurement techniques are useful in other areas, too.
           | Less error means more confidence in results for experimental
           | physicists and potentially one less source of error to care
           | about.
        
           | anthony_r wrote:
           | Or maybe finally learn mechanics 101 - what the conservation
           | of momentum is. The kind of stuff we expect to understand
           | from smart 16 year olds.
           | 
           | This is the physics equivalent of someone writing a brute-
           | force recursive SAT solver and wondering why it takes so
           | long. Perhaps we don't measure time correctly? What if
           | mirrors are an illusion? We mustn't stop advancing the field!
        
             | tlibert wrote:
             | Yeah, those morons at NASA'S Advanced Propulsion Physics
             | Laboratory sure have no idea what is a good use of their
             | time.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | This fellow (Eagleworks guy) was told in no uncertain
               | terms by his PhD thesis committee at Rice that this was a
               | bad idea and forced to rewrite his thesis. He clearly
               | doesn't know when to take a hint.
        
               | anthony_r wrote:
               | Yes there are commonly clever people that know how to
               | play organizational ladders with minimum amount of work
               | in every sufficiently large organization. Also a fair
               | amount of "morons".
        
               | tlibert wrote:
               | Arthur C Clark has addressed this general point in his
               | first law:
               | 
               | " When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that
               | something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When
               | he states that something is impossible, he is very
               | probably wrong."
        
             | shoefindortz wrote:
             | This argument reminds me of the historical arguments made
             | against heliocentrism vs geocentrism. Just because we have
             | widespread belief of one thing to be true does not mean we
             | should blindly accept it and not test things that appear to
             | oppose it.
             | 
             | In my opinion, the tests that have happened with the
             | EmDrive are exactly what _should_ happen to make sure that
             | our knowledge is strong and that we do keep advancing the
             | field.
        
               | anthony_r wrote:
               | This is like with being a teenager - you simply don't
               | realize just how dumb you sound.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_laws_of_motion#I
               | mpo...
               | 
               | It is fascinating how such "fake news" grabs people
               | attention, for extended periods of time. Fake news can
               | last forever :)
        
             | plutonorm wrote:
             | I have MSc in mathematics, I can follow the idea of
             | conservation of momentum. I just know a little more than
             | you and understand that things are not so simple.
        
             | c1ccccc1 wrote:
             | "Velocities add" is also mechanics 101, and turned out to
             | be incorrect at sufficiently large speeds. I think we have
             | to go to Noether's theorem to show why we should be so sure
             | the EM drive doesn't work: EM drive proponents must either
             | tell us where the momentum goes, or explain why space isn't
             | symmetric under translation.
             | 
             | (Actually, fun side note, in a gravitational field, space
             | isn't symmetric under translation. IIRC, this was the
             | original problem that caused Noether to prove her famous
             | theorem. She found that while there was still a conserved
             | quantity of a sort due to "translations" in space and time,
             | it wasn't just the energy-momentum tensor, but also
             | depended on the gravitational field. In any case, the EM
             | drive is supposed to work in flat space, so that shouldn't
             | become an issue.)
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | tunesmith wrote:
       | This is like rationalism vs empiricism. It's nice when the
       | empirical results align with the rational conclusion again.
        
       | dleslie wrote:
       | I am both unsurprised and disappointed. This is one of those
       | things where it'd be _really cool_ if it worked, but also hugely
       | unexpected.
        
         | Edman274 wrote:
         | I also might feel disappointment, but I think that the greater
         | disappointment would come from learning that foundational
         | principles in physics had been overturned, because what it
         | would mean is that we've all done a really, unacceptably bad
         | job of getting a true version of reality. The difference
         | between Newtonian physics and Special Relativity is not so much
         | as to shake basic scientific principles to their core. But
         | overturning conservation of momentum is like saying that we're
         | making up physical laws as we go along.
        
           | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
           | > but I think that the greater disappointment would come from
           | learning that foundational principles in physics had been
           | overturned,
           | 
           | That would have been exciting, actually. More stuff to learn,
           | more natural laws to discover, more possibilities!
        
             | wruza wrote:
             | I'm not a physicist, but it seemed unlikely that one can
             | overturn a century of physics research by microwaving a
             | bucket. Unlikely that something so obvious yet
             | groundbreaking wasn't encountered in any other experiment
             | ever made, in one form or another.
        
           | yetihehe wrote:
           | > But overturning conservation of momentum is like saying
           | that we're making up physical laws as we go along.
           | 
           | We ARE making up physical laws as we go along. We see
           | something unexpected, we try to find why it could be, we
           | invent new possible laws of nature and we check if those laws
           | are sticking to wall with experiments. What sticks to wall,
           | is then called "law of nature", but it might nit be exact or
           | true. We only know it fits what we've seen up to now.
        
           | garmaine wrote:
           | > but I think that the greater disappointment would come from
           | learning that foundational principles in physics had been
           | overturned, because what it would mean is that we've all done
           | a really, unacceptably bad job of getting a true version of
           | reality
           | 
           | Physicist here: that's not how physics works, at all. We
           | don't even pretend to have a "true" (complete?) model of
           | reality at all. There are many gaps in our knowledge.
           | Unfortunately they are either so small, so large, or so high
           | energy that we can't easily expand across those limits to our
           | knowledge using data gathered from labs here on Earth. But
           | every now and then you get a really simple test that
           | demonstrates a gap in our knowledge that reveals new physics,
           | and that's how we make advances.
           | 
           | If the Em drive were real, it would be just like the
           | photoelectric effect or quantum-slit interference patterns:
           | things which defy classical explanations but which are
           | evidently quite real. And I assure you, those were NOT
           | disappointments. Far from it--every physicist dreams of
           | discovering such an experiment, and it would certainly win
           | the Nobel prize.
        
             | arethuza wrote:
             | _" The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one
             | that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka' but 'That's
             | funny...'"_
             | 
             | Isaac Asimov
        
           | moring wrote:
           | > The difference between Newtonian physics and Special
           | Relativity is not so much as to shake basic scientific
           | principles to their core.
           | 
           | Special relativity says that the temporal order in which
           | events happen can ( _) depend on the frame of reference of
           | the viewer, and thus, such events do not have any objective
           | order in which they occur.
           | 
           | (_) that is, if their relative "time-position" is spacelike,
           | or in other words, if light is "too slow" to travel from one
           | event occurring to the other event occuring.
           | 
           | To add on top of this, it says that if faster-than-light
           | particles exist, a chain of FoRs can be constructed such that
           | an event happens before itself.
           | 
           | If that isn't shaking basic principles, I don't know what is.
        
           | ganafagol wrote:
           | > [...] is like saying that we're making up physical laws as
           | we go along.
           | 
           | Um .. what's your alternative description on how scientific
           | knowledge comes about?
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | adwn wrote:
           | > _The difference between Newtonian physics and Special
           | Relativity is not so much as to shake basic scientific
           | principles to their core._
           | 
           | But it is! Before special relativity, _conservation of mass_
           | was thought to be a law of physics; SR refined this law to
           | _conservation of mass-energy_.
        
             | at_a_remove wrote:
             | But "refinement" is the correct word to use.
             | 
             | In the vast majority of scenarios, you can keep your
             | conservation of mass separate from your conservation of
             | energy. You only have to pay attention in very specific
             | cases: fusion, fission, and relative velocities that are
             | quite intense.
             | 
             | This refinement, which we see again and again in physics,
             | is "oh, sure, if you do THIS, here's a correction you can
             | apply ... should start showing up three or four sigfigs
             | in."
        
             | kelnos wrote:
             | I think the difference here is that conservation of mass
             | was an _incomplete_ understanding of what was going on, and
             | conservation of mass-energy was an evolution of the law.
             | 
             | If the EmDrive worked, it would mean that several
             | foundational things are just wrong. Not incomplete, just
             | completely wrong.
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | Newtonian momentum is not conserved in Special Relativity.
           | That is, momentum is conserved, but momentum is redefined -
           | it's not just mass times velocity any longer. The new
           | definition is more correct than the previous one.
           | 
           | Had this worked, it probably wouldn't have overturned
           | conservation of momentum either. It might have redefined
           | momentum again, though.
        
       | tomrod wrote:
       | To the dustbin!
       | 
       | I had hope for the promise of the drive, but such as it
       | is.science proceeded and now we know more.
        
       | dudeinjapan wrote:
       | That's what she said
        
       | codethief wrote:
       | I just had a look at Tajmar's other publications[0]. They read
       | like science fiction (well, that's of course because in a way
       | they are):
       | 
       | > Tajmar, M., and Assis, A.K.T., "Particles with Negative Mass:
       | Production, Properties and Applications for Nuclear Fusion and
       | Self-Acceleration", Journal of Advanced Physics 4, 77-82 (2015)
       | 
       | > Tajmar, M., and Bertolami, O., "Hypothetical Gravity Control
       | and Possible Influence on Space Propulsion", Journal of
       | Propulsion and Power 21(4), 692-696 (2005)
       | 
       | > Lorincz, I. and Tajmar, M., "Null-Results of a Superconducting
       | Gravity-Impulse-Generator", 52nd AIAA Joint Propulsion
       | Conference, AIAA-2016-4988, Salt Lake City, July 25-27 (2016)
       | 
       | I think his job ranks among the coolest positions in physics that
       | I've come across: He does fundamental physics (something almost
       | every physics undergrad dreams of doing), _both_ theory and
       | experiment and _both_ quantum mechanics and General Relativity,
       | _and_ he literally does rocket science. Unreal. I didn 't think
       | such a position could exist.
       | 
       | [0]: https://tu-
       | dresden.de/ing/maschinenwesen/ilr/rfs/forschung/f...
        
         | snarfy wrote:
         | He's had some controversy in the past and had a bit of a quack
         | reputation. It's nice to see this research done. When I saw the
         | name associated with this I assumed the opposite result.
        
           | codethief wrote:
           | > He's had some controversy in the past and had a bit of a
           | quack reputation.
           | 
           | Can you provide more details or, possibly, sources? Was it
           | just because he dared considering (and testing) "crazy
           | claims" like the EmDrive in the first place?
        
             | snarfy wrote:
             | My impression was that yes, the majority of controversy was
             | around his areas of research. I first heard of Tajmar when
             | researching Heim theory which was itself pretty
             | controversial.
        
       | UncleSlacky wrote:
       | If anyone's interested, Roger Shawyer (the inventor of the
       | EMDrive) is speaking at the online APEC conference on April 3rd:
       | 
       | https://www.altpropulsion.com/events/apec-4-3-the-emdrive-qu...
        
       | dkbrk wrote:
       | This is unsurprising. I doubt there was anyone with a modicum of
       | understanding of the physics (even the teams doing the testing)
       | who expected it to work. That doesn't, however, mean that testing
       | it was a waste of time. There was an anomalous result that has
       | now been resolved. I think it's a vital scientific virtue to
       | follow up anomalous results until they're satisfactorily
       | resolved, no matter how ridiculous or physics-defying they seem.
       | 
       | The EmDrive was always a long shot, but it wasn't the only
       | reactionless drive under investigation. Unlike the EmDrive, which
       | never had a plausible physical mechanism for how it could work,
       | the Woodward Effect [0] does have such a mechanism and has yet to
       | be experimentally disproven. It exists in this weird place where
       | it seems to be a straightforward theoretical prediction from
       | general relativity; where, almost by exploiting a loophole in
       | physics, the maths says you can get thrust without propellant,
       | and much more of it than possible with a photon rocket for the
       | same power. This, apparently, doesn't violate conservation of
       | momentum, either, because the momentum would be carried by
       | gravity waves, essentially "pushing" against distant masses
       | throughout the universe. Whether this is actually predicted by
       | general relativity or is a misapplication of the theory, is very
       | subtle and not something I'm capable of evaluating.
       | 
       | This is being evaluated by NASA [1] -- not that that says very
       | much, NASA will evaluate some pretty crazy things, see exhibit A:
       | EmDrive -- but they've yet to achieve a negative result. Not that
       | that says very much either -- EmDrive didn't have a negative
       | result until it did. Still, while the chances of the Woodward
       | effect working are small, I would still rate it as much, much
       | higher than the EmDrive ever seemed to be. It's something to keep
       | an eye on, anyway. There's also this interview with James
       | Woodward [2] that might be of interest.
       | 
       | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodward_effect
       | 
       | [1]:
       | https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2018_Phase_...
       | 
       | [2]: https://medium.com/predict/james-woodward-on-machs-
       | principle...
        
         | codethief wrote:
         | I came here to mention the Woodward Effect. I had never heard
         | of it until last week when someone here on HN mentioned the
         | blog of Tom Mahood (a former master's student of Woodward) in
         | an entirely different context (namely: UFOs). It ended up
         | sending me on a deep dive into the subject and, ultimately, led
         | me to an article by Mahood[0] about the Woodward effect. The
         | upshot is:
         | 
         | > But Tom, is this stuff ......real?
         | 
         | > I....don't.... know. And I say that after being involved in
         | chasing it down for 10+ years. At this point, I see arguements
         | on both sides.
         | 
         | > Fundamentally, the mathematics are extremely compelling. I
         | have yet to come across anyone credible in General Relativity
         | who can say why the derivation is incorrect. About as damning
         | as I've heard is something along the lines of, "Wait,...This
         | can't be right....But I don't know why it's not right". The
         | math is straightforward.
         | 
         | > The effect (or something like it) has been demonstrated in a
         | _wide_ variety of different types of devices and experimental
         | setups. _Something_ has been observed if it's merely capacitors
         | being shuttled back and forth, but also with later generation
         | devices composed of all PZT discs.
         | 
         | > [...]
         | 
         | > As time progressed and the experimental apparatus more
         | refined, the "effect" seemed to get smaller, and that's a REAL
         | bad sign. It was already well below what the theory predicted.
         | That sets off alarm bells. After all this time, if something
         | isn't in hand to float around a table top, its should still at
         | least be producing unequivocal results.
         | 
         | [0]: https://www.otherhand.org/home-page/physics/graduate-
         | studies...
        
           | codethief wrote:
           | Addendum: I just noticed that the EmDrive article has
           | something to say about the Woodward effect:
           | 
           | > In a third paper, the Dresden physicists then describe
           | their research on the "Mach-Effect Thruster":
           | 
           | > "Here we have proven that the Mach-Effect-Thruster (an idea
           | by J. Woodward) is unfortunately a vibration artifact and
           | also not a real thrust."
        
       | Taniwha wrote:
       | oooh, scientists doing science!
        
       | the__alchemist wrote:
       | Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1404/
        
       | darepublic wrote:
       | I wanted to believe
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | I am sad, but not surprised.
       | 
       | I really want something like this to work, and it may, one day.
       | 
       | Just not yet, I guess.
        
       | hermitcrab wrote:
       | I'm sure this is no surprise to any professional physicists
       | anywhere.
        
       | fnord77 wrote:
       | quel choc
        
       | tmathmeyer wrote:
       | https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/027/475/Scr...
        
       | Ma8ee wrote:
       | Kudos for spending four hard years to publish a negative result!
       | It will hardly make any of them famous, while it still is a very
       | important result. Hopefully this means that we can leave the
       | whole EmDrive debacle behind us once for all.
       | 
       | And to those that says that the outcome was given, and that they
       | wasted their time, I'd say that we do have to sometimes try for
       | the really long shots. In addition, it is important to show that
       | we don't sweep any controversial results under the carpet just
       | because they don't align with current "dogma".
        
         | missurunha wrote:
         | > Kudos for spending four hard years to publish a negative
         | result!
         | 
         | All scientific results are positive, but I have the feeling
         | people end up skewing their research just to show what they
         | want to see. Yesterday I read a study [1] by the most renown
         | Brazilian university claiming that the control of Covid on
         | Brazilian football is bad because 11% of the players got it
         | while in Germany only 0.5% were sick. Then I looked the data up
         | and the Bundesliga has the exact same 11% [2], but the
         | researchers chose a very specific time frame in which they
         | didn't have many cases, just to "prove" their point.
         | 
         | This was easy to verify, but I wonder how many long term
         | researches find gibberish results and no one will ever know.
         | 
         | [1] https://globoesporte.globo.com/sp/futebol/campeonato-
         | paulist...
         | 
         | [2]
         | https://www.sport1.de/fussball/bundesliga/2021/02/bundesliga...
        
       | yaya69 wrote:
       | We're trapped like beavers
        
       | walrus01 wrote:
       | For everyone that's disappointed, remember that thrust without
       | reaction mass is still possible with enough electrical power and
       | lasers, and doesn't appear to violate any known laws of physics.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photon_rocket
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_photonic_rocket
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_propulsion
        
         | brazzy wrote:
         | I mean, sure, ultimately mass==energy. It broadens your options
         | but doesn't change the problem that you have to take it with
         | you, it gets used up, and the more you take the more you have
         | to use.
        
           | cygx wrote:
           | Note that in contemporary usage, the term 'mass' without
           | qualifier is normally understood as a reference to invariant
           | mass (aka rest mass). Photons have energy, but no mass. They
           | can be used for propulsion due to having nonzero momentum.
        
             | rssoconnor wrote:
             | While the 'working mass' in this case is massless,
             | nevertheless the spacecraft still loses its own actual mass
             | as it accelerates, which is something you might not expect
             | from something labeled as "thrust without reaction mass".
        
               | cygx wrote:
               | True. After sending out a photon of energy E, a spaceraft
               | of mass m will have its (invariant!) mass reduced by a
               | factor of sqrt(1 - 2E/mc2).
               | 
               | In terms of energies, this is all rather trivial
               | conceptionally: Rest energy (aka 'mass') gets converted
               | into the kinetic energies of the spacecraft and the
               | photon.
        
           | fsloth wrote:
           | You can beam the energy _to_ the spaceship from a planet or
           | satellite for the first leg of the voyage in many physically
           | plausible configurations.
        
             | sillysaurusx wrote:
             | Neat idea. How much energy do you lose (assuming a vacuum)?
             | 
             | You could imagine some kind of dish that catches the
             | energy, but that's the extent of my knowledge -- I don't
             | know how you'd convert it back to propulsion.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Your main losses will be just from inverse-square law.
               | Even if your ship is reflecting a laser off its rear end,
               | you can only focus the beam so much; at some point the
               | spot size will be bigger than the ship, and you'll be in
               | the inverse-square regime (same surface area, 1/r^2
               | energy within it).
        
               | sfink wrote:
               | That doesn't seem fundamental, though. You could have a
               | series of relays that catch the beam, convert it to
               | energy, and re-beam it out.
               | 
               | But I'm sure the efficiency would be awful, and if you
               | have a chain of N of these things, now you're dropping
               | off exponentially with N. And N is linear in distance.
               | Hm... this isn't sounding like such a great workaround
               | anymore.
               | 
               | Not to mention that the incoming beam would be shoving
               | your relay forward. Does the outgoing beam push it
               | backwards? I don't know how that works. (Even if it does,
               | you'd be shoved forward proportionally to the energy
               | loss.)
               | 
               | Bleagh. You'd be better off sending out a series of
               | energy pellets well in advance that a traveling ship
               | would scoop up along the way. _That_ must be what Pac-Man
               | was all about...!
        
               | fsloth wrote:
               | There are different configurations to transfer energy to
               | the space-craft that is converted to it's momentum
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beam-powered_propulsion
        
               | waheoo wrote:
               | You push the "ship" with a laser from a satellite.
        
               | tylerhou wrote:
               | You don't even need a dish to catch the energy; just use
               | a mirror that reflects the laser. You will lose energy to
               | particles in the laser beam, and possibly also due to
               | redshift.
        
               | sbierwagen wrote:
               | >How much energy do you lose?
               | 
               | Not entirely the right question. Usually in spaceflight
               | you are overwhelmingly concerned with efficiency, since
               | you have to carry your fuel with you. But with laser-
               | boosted light sails, you leave your engines at home. At
               | reasonable distances, (100+ AU) most of the beam is
               | wasted, but the spacecraft doesn't care about that.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_sail#Interstellar_fli
               | ght
        
             | nomercy400 wrote:
             | Wouldn't you push your satellite in the opposite direction?
             | Not saying that it isn't a good idea. The satellite might
             | be in orbit, so it could use gravity to negate that.
        
           | yccs27 wrote:
           | The difference is quantitative, but multiple magnitudes big:
           | The ratio of impulse to mass is given by the exhaust
           | velocity, and velocities for massive propellants barely reach
           | 0.01% of the speed of light. Thus the thrust can be more than
           | 10 000 times higher for the same propellant mass.
           | 
           | On the flip side, the exhaust velocity also determines the
           | ratio of (kinetic) energy to impulse, so energy beam
           | propulsion needs over 10 000 times more stored energy.
           | 
           | Energy beam propulsion is only viable if you have compact
           | high-capacity energy storage available (antimatter?).
        
           | Iv wrote:
           | The thing is we know how to harvest solar energy while in
           | space. Harvesting matter has been proposed with ram scoops
           | but contrary to solar cells, these are just theoretical
           | propositions.
           | 
           | Being able to use energy directly instead of propulsion mass
           | would make a lot of travels more sustainable and with
           | potentially lighter vehicles.
        
             | brazzy wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure the amount of energy you can harvest that
             | way is a couple of orders of magnitude too small to be
             | useful.
        
           | ReptileMan wrote:
           | I mean I would just load couple of metric tons of antimatter
           | in the ship and then just use up picked up interstellar space
           | mass (1 atom per cubic meter is not much, but you will be
           | moving trough shitload of them) along the way to annihilate.
           | the faster you move the faster you will go up to a couple of
           | limits. BUT deceleration may be a bit of a problem.
        
         | dvdkhlng wrote:
         | It's also possible without any energy transmission using lasers
         | etc. as long as you are in some non-flat spacetime (i.e. there
         | is some mass in your vincinity). It's called "swimming in
         | spacetime" [1]
         | 
         | [edit] You can find a less scientific / more illustrative
         | introduction to the concept here [2].
         | 
         | [1] http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/users/wisdom/swimming.pdf
         | 
         | [2]
         | http://www.brophy.net/Downloads/AIL%20Class%20on%20Reality%2...
        
           | conistonwater wrote:
           | This is a perfectly realistic technique that has already been
           | seen in use: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lnvh08GBOII
        
           | delecti wrote:
           | > as long as you are in some non-flat spacetime (i.e. there
           | is some mass in your vincinity)
           | 
           | I'm not an expert, but isn't that definitionally everywhere?
           | Or is it that it works _better_ when your vicinity is _more_
           | curved? The paper is a bit beyond my ability to get anything
           | from, and the summary on Wikipedia isn 't much better, and
           | also doesn't seem to match what you're implying it is.
           | 
           | > "Swimming in spacetime" is a geometrical motive principle
           | that exploits the curved spacetime metric of the
           | gravitational field to permit an extended body undergoing
           | specific deformations in shape, to change position. In weak
           | gravitational fields, like that of Earth, the change in
           | position per deformation cycle would be far too small to
           | detect, but the concept remains of interest as the only
           | unambiguous example of reactionless motion in mainstream
           | physics.
        
             | conistonwater wrote:
             | I also found the paper hard to read, but check page 6 of
             | the pdf at http://www.brophy.net/Downloads/AIL%20Class%20on
             | %20Reality%2... ( _Adventures in Curved Spacetime_ ,
             | Eduardo Gueron, Scientific American Vol.301)
        
         | JPLeRouzic wrote:
         | In 2003 a scientist published a paper about cyclic changes in
         | the shape of a quasi-rigid body on a curved manifold. He shown
         | that it can lead to net translation and/or rotation of the body
         | in the manifold, so in simple words "swimming in space". I
         | guess this is only possible on very large structures.
         | 
         | https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/6706
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Scott Manly did an overview of potential ways of propulsion in
         | space including some very wacky setups. The most promising ones
         | seem to be using nuclear or fusion reactions to accelerate tiny
         | amounts of mass to very high speeds. The engineering issues are
         | substantial of course. But definitely goes a bit beyond the
         | limitations of chemical processes (i.e. burning fuels).
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEZv_OXA_NI
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | I'd say beamed energy propulsion is more promising for high
           | speeds. That's because the main problem becomes keeping the
           | vehicle from destroying itself with waste heat, and beamed
           | propulsion keeps the waste heat back at the beam souce. You
           | can even actively cool an object with laser light (via anti-
           | Stokes scattering and the like.)
        
           | qayxc wrote:
           | In the end it's all about a very simple equation: E(kin) =
           | 1/2mv2 so it's all about exhaust velocity. The closer you can
           | get that to its theoretical maximum (e.g. c), the less
           | reaction mass is required.
           | 
           | But the question still remains: is there a practical non-
           | Newtonian way? We already know of rather impractical ones,
           | such has deforming spacetime.
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | I've wondered if it would be possible to build an efficient
             | rocket engine that accelerates its reaction mass so hard
             | that it gains an appreciable amount of relativistic mass?
             | The fundamental problem with interstellar travel is the
             | amount of reaction mass you need to make the trip in a
             | reasonable amount of time. The rocket equation is a harsh
             | mistress. If you were accelerating each gram of propellant
             | so hard that it gained a metric ton of relativistic mass
             | you could bypass it, assuming you had some sort of
             | lightweight yet near limitless power source.
        
               | admax88q wrote:
               | Isnt that basically a high powered ion drive?
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | As far as I know none of our current Ion drives
               | accelerate the particles hard enough for them to gain a
               | noticeable amount of relativistic mass.
        
               | benlivengood wrote:
               | You could use a synchrotron or linear accelerator to
               | shoot charged particles out the back.
               | 
               | The LHC gets protons to 99.999999% of c.
        
         | varispeed wrote:
         | There is a nice experiment that shows light can move:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng1X8mPJziA
        
         | Mikhail_K wrote:
         | Photon drive is not "thrust without reaction mass", because
         | photons do have mass (they have zero rest mass, but are never
         | at rest). Mass of a photon is, unsurprisingly, E/c^2, where
         | E=h\omega. If photons had zero mass, they would not have been
         | influenced by gravity, and bending of light by the solar mass
         | has been measured in the beginning of 20th century.
        
           | jessriedel wrote:
           | You're using outdated terminology. Modern physicists use
           | "mass" to refer to what was called "rest mass" shortly after
           | relativity was developed in order to distinguish it from the
           | new concepts they at the time called "relativistic mass" and
           | "inertial mass". The term "relativistic mass" was motivated
           | in part by the desire to still think of all gravitation as
           | being sourced by some sort of mass, but the modern
           | terminology is to say that gravity is sourced by the stress-
           | energy tensor, of which (rest) mass is just one component.
           | 
           | Modern physicists unequivocally say "a photon has zero mass,
           | but has non-zero momentum and energy".
        
             | at_a_remove wrote:
             | I have a physics degree and _still_ say that photons have
             | zero rest mass, and then parenthetically mention that they
             | never rest, precisely because of the issues of
             | communication that tend to arise when we talk about things
             | like thrust.
             | 
             | I'm always tailoring it to the audience because sometimes
             | physics metaphors _need_ to be unpacked when communicating.
             | I have run into people who think that the  "hole" that can
             | move around in a lattice is an actual particle, not a
             | quasiparticle, like it was a swimmy little positron just
             | sitting in there, simply because the metaphoric shorthand
             | had overtaken reality.
             | 
             | If I were talking physics grad to physics grad, I wouldn't
             | do that. Anyone else? Yeah, brushing the complexities under
             | the rug with shorthand leads to, well ... the idea that you
             | can get thrust without kicking something in the other
             | direction.
        
               | jessriedel wrote:
               | I wasn't advising him to not explain things, I was
               | pointing out that he's saying something that's false when
               | interpreted with standard terminology.
        
           | cygx wrote:
           | That terminology is outdated. Today, mass generally means
           | invariant mass, corresponding to rest mass in case of
           | 'massive' particles. The invariant mass of photons is 0,
           | hence it's 'massless'.
           | 
           | The gamma factors hidden by the relativistic mass definition
           | of course still occur, but they get folded into the 4-vector
           | quantities instead, which happens naturally if you use proper
           | time for your derivatives.
           | 
           | This way, we avoid having to introduce things like transverse
           | and longitudinal mass, which was the explanation within the
           | variable-mass picture as to why the spatial part of
           | 4-acceleration generally isn't parallel to 3-acceleration.
           | 
           |  _edit:_ s /velocity/acceleration/ where appropriate
        
           | unlaxedneurotic wrote:
           | The photon paths bend due to the curvature of space-time
           | caused by gravity. This does not mean that they have non-zero
           | mass. iirc, it has been proved that photons have non-zero
           | _momentum_ but I am not sure about mass.
        
       | wanderfowl wrote:
       | I'm disappointed to hear that, just because it'd be very useful
       | for this to be a thing. But I love the science behind it, and
       | this is the way it should be.
        
         | xupybd wrote:
         | Yes the strange thing about this drive is it appeared to work
         | with no solid theory behind it. Yes, there was some but my
         | layman's understanding was that it was flawed.
         | 
         | It would have been so cool for something like that to have
         | worked. We don't get many discoveries like that.
        
           | deepspace wrote:
           | > appeared to work with no solid theory behind it.
           | 
           | That, my friend is the very definition of Snake Oil.
           | 
           | > We don't get many discoveries like that
           | 
           | On the contrary, we get far more than our fair share of
           | charlatans claiming physically impossible results. See also:
           | Theranos, Energous, Fontus and a million other scam
           | companies.
        
             | kenneth wrote:
             | On Energeous, the science is sound in theory. In practice I
             | don't believe the company will be able to execute; but
             | transmitting power over RF is something we've understood
             | for a long time (since Edison first demonstrated the
             | technology).
             | 
             | I'm an investor in a competitor: Reach Labs which has
             | systems in production powering swarms of low power devices
             | wirelessly. I've seen the technology work in person.
        
               | walrus01 wrote:
               | What size and wattage load of devices?
        
             | bpodgursky wrote:
             | It's really unhealthy to call anything that doesn't fit
             | into the known laws of physics or science "snake oil"
             | 
             | If the EmDrive team was trying to sell NFTs and sucker
             | people into investing in their radical invention it would
             | be snake oil. But instead they approached this very
             | responsibly, saying "we don't understand why this works.
             | help us figure it out."
             | 
             | That's science done right, and a lot of new science has
             | moved forward by questioning and changing the known rules.
             | Whether or not it happens here.
        
               | deepspace wrote:
               | I disagree. Something new that challenges areas of
               | physics where our understanding is vague, like neutrino
               | mass or dark matter - sure: feel free to explore new
               | theories
               | 
               | Something that challenges something as solidly
               | established as conservation of momentum: Snake oil.
        
               | bpodgursky wrote:
               | I don't get why you are fixated on that term. They're
               | literally not selling anything.
               | 
               | The whole point of the term "snake oil salesman" is that
               | someone is getting defrauded, and a dishonest person is
               | making a quick buck.
        
               | ckozlowski wrote:
               | Newtonian motion was pretty well established for hundreds
               | of years until general relativity transformed our
               | understanding of gravity.
               | 
               | Things seem "established" until evidence comes along
               | indicating it may not be. It doesn't always result in a
               | reevaluation, but there's times it does.
               | 
               | This feels like one of those times where there's those in
               | the establishment are yelling at others that their
               | studies are a waste of time and that they shouldn't
               | bother....and if that advice was followed, we'd be
               | missing many of the breakthroughs in knowledge we have
               | today. Of course there will be many times they're
               | unsuccessful. That's why accepting a negative result is a
               | lauded part of the scientific process. Without the
               | bravery required in challenging convention, we would
               | never make progress.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | You're apparently missing the origins of this whole
               | thing. Shawyer has been soliciting investment for it
               | since 2001, making very hyperbolic claims.
               | 
               | This was indeed snake oil from very the start. A couple
               | of people at NASA EagleWorks got permission to use some
               | of their time and facilities to investigate it as a
               | personal project. They did an extremely lazy attempt to
               | control for errors, published their result without
               | review, and the hype exploded.
               | 
               | The whole saga is rather frustrating tbh. We knew what
               | the definitive result was going to be 4 years ago.
               | Getting some improved measurement technology is cool and
               | all, but I don't think we had to go about it this way.
        
             | andi999 wrote:
             | I disagree. This is the definition of progress in
             | fundamental science. The difference between science and
             | snake oil is what you do after your first signal. Do you
             | try to find every possible way why it could be wrong and
             | most importantly do you let other people try, then it is
             | science, like the faster than light neutrinos come in mind
             | as another example. Or do you start selling and let other
             | people not test it. Well then its snake oil
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | If there is anything thoroughly Snake Oil in modern
             | currency, it's Tokamak Fusion.
             | 
             | "Give us enough billions, we'll have one working in 2050.
             | Or 2060, or someday. It won't produce any power, oh no, of
             | course not. But give us _ten times more_ money after 2050
             | (or 2060) and by 2100, or 2140, or anyway someday maybe, we
             | will have a prototype power station for you.
             | 
             | "Sure, it will cost a hundred times as much for each kW-hr
             | as whatever you will be using by then--and the plant will
             | destroy itself after only two years--but it will be
             | _fusion_ power. And that will be so cool! "
             | 
             | Tokamak fusion is mainly a jobs program for hot-neutron
             | physicists, to maintain a population ready to draw on for
             | weapons work, but is also a massive boondoggle providing a
             | steady flow of corruption money to well-connected pockets.
             | (Hot-neutron physicists are not getting the $billions.)
             | Every cent spent on Tokamak fusion is stolen from actually
             | practical work.
             | 
             | So don't talk to me about snake-oil until after you kill
             | Tokamak.
        
               | xupybd wrote:
               | Out of interest is there another more promising
               | controlled fusion option?
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | I am interested in Field-Reversed Configuration, although
               | it seems more practical for driving spacecraft.
               | 
               | Anything aneutronic that works will be infinitely better
               | than Tokamak. If it doesn't have to work, you are back in
               | Tokamak territory.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Not really. Fusion has inherent generic engineering
               | problems, particularly DT fusion, that are independent of
               | the details of plasma confinement.
        
             | ALittleLight wrote:
             | Nobody was selling emdrives (to my knowledge). It was more
             | of a "Hey, this is a weird effect" and an effort to explain
             | it. That's less snake oil and more science. Most of the
             | time there is some explanation that doesn't break your
             | framework. Sometimes there's a breakthrough as you figure
             | out the new thing. Sometimes you can't figure it out.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | Shawyer absolutely was soliciting investment. Anyone with
               | a basic physics education could see his proposed
               | mechanism was utter nonsense, so it's hard to be
               | charitable towards his rather hyperbolic marketing.
        
             | dleslie wrote:
             | > That, my friend is the very definition of Snake Oil.
             | 
             | Is it? How does a bicycle work?
             | 
             | https://www.nature.com/news/the-bicycle-problem-that-
             | nearly-...
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | I have found I can teach kids to ride a bike in
               | (literally) seconds, just by not lying to them about how
               | it works.
               | 
               | "Use the handlebars to stay up. Lean to turn." Just like
               | that, and they're off. (I am _absolutely not_
               | exaggerating.)
               | 
               | (And, no, gyroscope effect has nothing to do with it.)
               | 
               | They get the idea to twitch the handlebars the opposite
               | way, to lean, all by themselves. Most never notice they
               | are doing it.
        
               | wruza wrote:
               | That's because _leaning_ is such a bad term to describe
               | what happens! Even when I learned to ride bikes, it felt
               | so strange that "you have to lean left /right", cause I
               | understood somehow that I'm a much more massive object
               | and the center of masses is around my butt at best. So
               | leaning doesn't change much in mass/geometry/momentum
               | configuration. You may shift a bike under you with your
               | arms, but this is limited to their lengths.
               | 
               | What really happens is that you _always_ fall either to
               | the left or to the right. If you fall in a desired turn
               | direction, you turn a little. If not, you turn _even
               | more_ than is required to support a normal turn, so that
               | your bike moves below you to the point that now your mass
               | part is to the other side of it, and now you fall in the
               | other, initially desired direction. Then you quickly turn
               | at where you need. With practice all this movement
               | reduces to centimeters and very smooth curves at all
               | joints.
               | 
               | You move and (importantly) rotate your bike under
               | yourself. It has nothing to do with leaning, because it's
               | the road/front tire that make a difference in a balance,
               | not your flanks. Leaning helps to not fall off the seat
               | when you cycle, but not in turns.
               | 
               | It's clearly a trainer's delusion to me (that thing when
               | your trainer explains things that do not actually
               | work/exist but you translate or ignore these terms
               | showing respect to a good man).
        
               | pilsetnieks wrote:
               | According to science, a bumblebee shouldn't be able to
               | fly. /s
               | 
               | A bicycle isn't some unknown mystery of the universe, the
               | very article you linked lays it out pretty clearly. A
               | bicycle's stability is a function of its mass
               | distribution, geometry and the gyroscopic effect. Their
               | exact relation depends on the bicycle and since there is
               | no one standard SI unit of a bicycle in the Bureau
               | international des poids et mesures, there is no apparent
               | equation. The "nearly broke mathematics" in the title is
               | just pure clickbait.
        
             | rcxdude wrote:
             | Given sufficient evidence, there's no need to have a solid
             | theory of operation for a given claim. That said, if it
             | contradicts known laws of physics that evidence had better
             | be damn good.
        
             | Igelau wrote:
             | and yet, SSRIs
        
               | andbberger wrote:
               | you because there's no systemic understanding of SSRIs
               | work? But you could say the same for most drugs. Most of
               | the pharma industry is just targeting a specific protein
               | without regard for how it fits into the system as a whole
        
             | walrus01 wrote:
             | It's not snake oil if you have a weird unexplained effect,
             | and:
             | 
             | A) you're not trying to sell anything to anyone
             | 
             | B) you fully open source the design, specifications,
             | schematics and your notes, and invite any interested third
             | party to try to duplicate or debunk the effect.
             | 
             | C) you intentionally refrain from making hyperbolic claims
             | about how revolutionary your thing is, before it's been
             | duplicated. Maybe some clueless third parties engaged in
             | hyperbole but not the original creators of the concept.
             | 
             | Science is working as intended.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | It's snake oil if you, as an experimenter, has not
               | absolutely ruled out what's the most likely (and mundane)
               | explanation.
               | 
               | What's the saying? If a theoretician is right just once,
               | he's a hero; if an experimentalist is wrong just once,
               | he's a goat.
        
       | kjrose wrote:
       | While I will accept these results if valid. I sincerely hope that
       | other labs are able to reproduce these results and the concept
       | isn't dismissed out of hand.
       | 
       | While it's good to have multiple labs trying to reproduce
       | results, that needs to apply in both directions to ensure that no
       | unintended bias caused issues.
        
         | BelenusMordred wrote:
         | Feel free to cheer it on, but extraordinary claims require
         | extraordinary evidence. All the evidence here has never been
         | verifiable and comes across as experimental sleights of hand.
         | Always reminded me of Eugene Podkletnov and his _gravity
         | shielding_ , an interesting research avenue with physical
         | experiments sure, but no one can ever replicate what he has
         | said is happening.
         | 
         | I sometimes enjoy to tin-foil that things like the emdrive and
         | all those whacky navy patents are actually superpowers
         | intentionally wasting the time of rivals. One space faring
         | nation recently spent a lot research effort getting an emdrive
         | into space to test it.
        
       | olliej wrote:
       | wasn't it already established that the force measured was related
       | to current in the power cables or something?
        
         | KMag wrote:
         | It's an important step to fix the observed flaw and then
         | experimentally verify results are now as expected.
        
         | xt00 wrote:
         | Yea I definitely remember that being discussed previously.
         | Basically the amount of current in the wires was large enough
         | to cause deflections that that particular group did not have a
         | good way to account for so my recollection was they mentioned
         | it as a likely source of the displacement. I was sort of hoping
         | somebody would hook this thing up on top of an air table and
         | power it with a huge battery so it's a fully closed / stand
         | alone system and see if the setup starts drifting one direction
         | when it turns on.
        
       | whiw wrote:
       | The knowledge that we have gained from this experiment is that
       | the experimental data disagrees with the theoretical
       | justificiation for the idea. That isn't the same as proving that
       | the theory is wrong, even if that seems the more likely
       | explanation. To be sure that the theory is wrong we would need an
       | analysis of why that is the case and what were the false
       | assumptions and faulty reasoning behind it. Any volounteers?
        
         | teraflop wrote:
         | The original theoretical justification for why the EmDrive was
         | supposed to work was _also_ wrong. The idea was to use a cavity
         | shaped like a truncated cone, such that the forces on the big
         | end and the small end don 't precisely cancel. But this
         | neglects the force on the sloping sides, which (of course)
         | balances everything out.
         | 
         | Here's a detailed analysis by Greg Egan showing why the EmDrive
         | would not be theoretically expected to generate any thrust:
         | https://www.gregegan.net/SCIENCE/Cavity/Cavity.html
         | 
         | Proponents tried to hand-wave these arguments away and claim
         | that the EmDrive's empirical results were explained by new,
         | unknown physics.
        
       | Waterluvian wrote:
       | I was looking at the image on the page and my brain was
       | oscillating between "that looks like a science machine" and "that
       | looks spot on like a quack perpetual motion machine."
       | 
       | I guess context really does drive perception.
        
         | dsq wrote:
         | A TANSTAAFL-defying machine...
        
         | OliverJones wrote:
         | There's a reason the US Patent Office requires a working model
         | from inventors who would patent a perpetual motion machine.
         | Every other kind of invention may be described on paper.
        
         | infofarmer wrote:
         | Hmmm... those oscillations in your brain, did they feel
         | _perpetual_? We need some more data to see if we can harvest
         | their energy for motion.
        
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