[HN Gopher] The virus that causes the common cold can effectivel...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The virus that causes the common cold can effectively boot the
       Covid virus out
        
       Author : discocrisco
       Score  : 193 points
       Date   : 2021-03-23 12:54 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (bbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (bbc.com)
        
       | AntiImperialist wrote:
       | So can various other strains of coronaviruses, a lot of which are
       | much less harmful to us. In fact, smallpox was eradicated by
       | using another species of the virus. The main reason smallpox was
       | eradicated was because the vaccine itself was infectious.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, that is terrible for business. So, extreme
       | precaution is taken by pharmaceuticals to make sure that
       | naturally occurring variants will never be a thing.
        
       | kurthr wrote:
       | Add me to the list of people who think this sort of reporting is
       | dangerous to the public health.
       | 
       | It's well known that a primed immune system (in non-
       | immunocompromised individuals) will combat viral infections more
       | readily. The innate immune system (as opposed to the adaptive
       | genetically diverse B/T-Cell antibody system) is a Thing and this
       | is why people were discussing giving standard vaccines (including
       | Flu, BCG, and others) before there were COVID specific vaccines.
       | Saying that the "common cold" (which isn't a single virus, but a
       | set of conditions), can "boot out" COV2 is silly gibberish and
       | completely unsupported by evidence. Furthermore infecting people
       | with unknown "colds" could in fact infecting them with (or
       | covering up) "pre-symptomatic" COVID.
       | 
       | Sorry, but you need to bring the actual Bigfoot/Nessi in for
       | people to believe outrageous claims at this point. Wearing
       | "protective amulets" against them is more likely to cause
       | problems that promote solutions.
        
       | insickness wrote:
       | "From the moment the invaders arrived, breathed our air, ate and
       | drank, they were doomed. They were undone, destroyed, after all
       | of man's weapons and devices had failed, by the tiniest creatures
       | that God in his wisdom put upon this earth. By the toll of a
       | billion deaths, man had earned his immunity, his right to survive
       | among this planet's infinite organisms. And that right is ours
       | against all challenges. For neither do men live nor die in vain."
        
         | WhompingWindows wrote:
         | "the tiniest creatures God in his wisdom put upon this earth"
         | 
         | The writing is nice but flawed. Since War of the Worlds, we
         | have advanced tremendously and no longer need intelligent
         | design or creation myths to explain microorganisms.
         | 
         | Reproducible, testable science demonstrates that in the
         | primordial oceans, self-replicating molecules which were
         | slightly better at self-replicating produced globules of matter
         | capable of inheritance. Small mutations over millions of years
         | led to the tiniest organisms, not "creatures", and most
         | microorganisms don't even interact with higher life forms. It's
         | only after epochs of time that complex mammals arose, breathing
         | air, and these mammalian hosts then did provide the harbor for
         | pathogens we know today.
        
           | Bancakes wrote:
           | I don't see the contradiction honestly. They are creatures
           | and they are here. Maybe you misinterpret what a creature is.
        
           | corobo wrote:
           | The writing is nice because it's nicely written. It's
           | fiction, Wells was a fiction author.
           | 
           | Give the dude a break on the athiest rant, he's been dead
           | half a century.
        
           | KoftaBob wrote:
           | It's always those that are the least confident in their
           | atheism that feel the need to constantly defend it.
        
             | hanche wrote:
             | Doesn't that go for _any_ 'ism?
        
           | hutzlibu wrote:
           | "Reproducible, testable science demonstrates that in the
           | primordial oceans, self-replicating molecules which were
           | slightly better at self-replicating produced globules of
           | matter capable of inheritance."
           | 
           | Hang on. Are you implying that science created artifical life
           | from just elements? Because that would be news to me.
        
             | michaelmrose wrote:
             | We don't understand how abiogenesis happened exactly but we
             | do know that electricity from lightning is liable to be
             | able to produce amino acids from simpler chemicals and we
             | have theories as to how the early earth would have been
             | amenable to such formation in a way the current earth is
             | not.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller%E2%80%93Urey_experimen
             | t
             | 
             | Given the history of shamanistic figures explaining the
             | natural world in terms of magical spirits and having
             | magical definitions replaced with natural ones thousands of
             | years one can perhaps be forgiven for concluding that the
             | original of life was just another domino waiting to fall.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenesis
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | This is interesting, but it also says nothing about fine-
               | tuning, which is likely outside the realms of the
               | scientific method.
        
               | michaelmrose wrote:
               | Why is it outside of the scientific method? Speculate
               | based on the other things we know about the universe,
               | devise way of test theory, rinse repeat.
        
           | shadowofneptune wrote:
           | HG Wells would have been well aware of this, being an athiest
           | of a kind we'd consider close to New Athiesm nowadays.
        
             | brazzy wrote:
             | > athiest of a kind we'd consider close to New Athiesm
             | 
             |  _twitch_
             | 
             | It's Atheism. "A-" as a negation like in apolitical,
             | atypical, aseptic. And "theism" meaning "belief in god",
             | same root as theology or theocracy.
        
               | shadowofneptune wrote:
               | I do not understand what you mean here.
        
               | JonathonW wrote:
               | Grandparent comment misspelled atheism; parent comment is
               | being obnoxious about it.
        
               | Izkata wrote:
               | I read it as aversion to the "New" part of "New Atheism",
               | a term I don't think I've heard of before.
        
               | JonathonW wrote:
               | New Atheism refers to a specifically anti-religious/anti-
               | theist viewpoint-- see Dawkins, Sam Harris, etc.
               | 
               | I am not familiar enough with H.G. Wells's religious
               | leanings (or lack thereof) to make any kind of comparison
               | between Wells's views and those of New Atheism's
               | proponents, although I will note that War of the Worlds
               | was written early enough that Wells may not have been
               | atheist yet.
        
             | Vrondi wrote:
             | Yeah, you'd almost think he was writing in the voice of a
             | fictional character or something bizarre like that.
        
               | junon wrote:
               | Or that God was maybe a writing device instead of
               | literally referring to God.
        
           | gher-shyu3i wrote:
           | Science does not and will not be able to explain the origin
           | of life. The statement still holds. It's very arrogant of us
           | to assume otherwise.
        
             | techrat wrote:
             | Is the theory of gravity still something to be considered
             | only a theory?
        
               | hanche wrote:
               | A theory, yes. Those who say "only a theory" tend to
               | confuse theory with _hypothesis_ , which is much looser.
               | A theory is a coherent set of principles serving to
               | explain a range of phenomena. Emphasis on _coherent_ ,
               | meaning not only internally consistent, but also
               | consistent with related knowledge. The road from
               | hypothesis to theory can be long and tortuous.
        
               | michaelmrose wrote:
               | Presumably so especially since both Newton's and
               | Enstein's understanding of gravity is obviously
               | incomplete.
        
             | tremon wrote:
             | That depends on whether your question to the origin of life
             | begins with "How" or "Why".
        
             | behringer wrote:
             | Why wouldn't it. If it has an answer science can find it.
        
               | nanis wrote:
               | > science can find it.
               | 
               | There is no thing called "science" that finds answers.
               | There are scientists who can form hypotheses about the
               | universe they can see and perceive and check whether they
               | are consistent with what they can see and perceive.
               | 
               | We are mostly ants on a balloon:
               | 
               | https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/does-the-fact-
               | tha...
               | 
               | We do not know where the balloon came from.
        
               | behringer wrote:
               | science is our method of finding answers. When we say
               | science can find it, we mean scientists using the
               | scientific method.
        
               | gher-shyu3i wrote:
               | Science is _a_ method of finding answers, it 's not the
               | only one.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | > There is no thing called "science" that finds answers.
               | 
               | That's equivalent to suggesting people can't do chess.
               | Semantically it may be accurate, but it's intentionally
               | obtuse.
               | 
               | Language doesn't actually work that way.
               | 
               | Anyway, science isn't experiments and building hypothesis
               | etc. That's part of the process, but really quite small
               | pieces of a greater whole. It's the long processes of
               | generations refining and testing earlier ideas that finds
               | truth.
        
               | nanis wrote:
               | I am not sure I understand the statement about chess.
               | 
               | It is important to understand that scientists are
               | individuals with individual incentives. While some have
               | an inherent drive towards getting closer to truths via
               | the application of the scientific method, others may find
               | other things more important.
               | 
               | Abstracting "the science" from scientists is a convenient
               | way of training other people in the acceptance of the
               | proposition that there are inherently qualified arbiters
               | of truth.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Chess is an abstract set of rules _not_ the thought
               | process behind making a move or the physical action of
               | moving a piece. As such nobody actually does chess.
               | 
               | You can play chess, as in follow the rules, or be a
               | scientist, as in contribute to the progress of science,
               | but nobody is the physical embodiment of chess or
               | science.
               | 
               | Edit: To be as clear as possible, the President isn't
               | Democracy, but Democracy still exists in that you can
               | meaningfully destroy it.
        
               | gher-shyu3i wrote:
               | Because it's beyond the realm of space and time. We can't
               | go back before t=0 when the universe was created.
        
               | michaelmrose wrote:
               | Life is believed to have emerged at ~t=9 billion why
               | couldn't we formulate a theory of how it emerged?
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | Life connects back to time zero because everything prior
               | was an important boundary condition, e.g. heavy metals
               | made through exploding stars supporting elemental
               | composition of life, etc.
        
               | benlivengood wrote:
               | > Life connects back to time zero because everything
               | prior was an important boundary condition, e.g. heavy
               | metals made through exploding stars supporting elemental
               | composition of life, etc.
               | 
               | The initial conditions were so uniform that it doesn't
               | take the same level of detail to understand what
               | happened, and we can look all the way back to the CMBR. A
               | particle-by-particle reconstruction of interactions since
               | the big bang won't make much of a difference in our
               | understanding of what happened on Earth. Virtually all of
               | the interactions arrived in our solar system in a very
               | noisy fashion during star formation and it was up to the
               | resulting sun to pump negentropy into the rocks and other
               | matter.
        
               | michaelmrose wrote:
               | You don't have to understand everything to understand
               | anything. Scientific theories are always abstractions
               | that reduce the complex interconnected universe to a
               | workable surface area we are trying to explore in order
               | to produce a model that can be used to make predictions
               | about the larger world that in turn can be tested,
               | refined, or shit canned as appropriate.
               | 
               | You can say we can't possibly understand how the heart
               | works because we do not understand the entire
               | evolutionary tree leading up to the human race and how
               | the circulatory system evolved over billions of years and
               | ergo heart transplants are impossible. This is trivially
               | false and its false for the same reason parent posters
               | assertion is false. Everything is how it is because of
               | initial conditions ergo everything connects back to time
               | zero but we can still use the abstract understanding we
               | do have to make models and predictions.
        
               | behringer wrote:
               | Until we know the nature of the universe, that may not be
               | correct.
        
               | __s wrote:
               | It may not be correct, but it may be correct
               | 
               | Your statement "If it has an answer" only holds if you
               | say that any truth science can't prove doesn't exist
               | 
               | But this isn't true. See Halting problem etc. There are
               | things for which the answer can exist & yet be
               | undeterminable
               | 
               | This is fine. I prefer to look at it this way: science is
               | searching out a subset of knowable truths. The origin of
               | the universe is interesting only insofar as we can dredge
               | up relevant information, but coming up with an origin
               | story or not isn't what proves the validity of science
               | 
               | Science isn't about getting all the answers, it's about
               | getting the answers right & at it's best admitting when
               | we got the answers wrong
               | 
               | When someone asks "If God doesn't exist what created the
               | universe?" I say "I don't know, I don't care"
        
               | marshmallow_12 wrote:
               | He means to say that science does not have the tools to
               | reproduce the beginning of the Universe. If it's not
               | reproducible it's not Science. Confident assertions non-
               | withstanding, the Human mind is a slave to nature, in
               | that can never hope to uncover it's deepest secrets and
               | thus, it's true.....nature?
        
               | michaelmrose wrote:
               | By that definition science is entirely unreal because we
               | can't reproduce an apple pie from scratch without first
               | creating the universe. We explore geology including
               | theories about the formation of the earth without making
               | new planets.
               | 
               | What is supposed to be reproducible is the act of
               | collecting and processing data to ensure that your
               | conclusion isn't based on error, falsehood, or
               | happenstance. What he is promoting is a basic
               | misunderstanding of both science and logic.
               | 
               | People with preconceived anti science attitudes do this
               | all the time. They face you down at high noon in their
               | fancy duds, six guns ready at their hips sure of
               | themselves and ready to kill and draw pearl handled....
               | water pistols.
               | 
               | They went looking for the correct answer to satisfy their
               | religion not a commitment to truth and found cheaply
               | manufactured baubles they are sure are deadly weapons
               | because the very skills that would enable them to see it
               | clearly would prevent them from looking for such easy
               | answers in the first place.
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | This article by an MIT prof might be interesting: https:/
               | /www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/03/miracles...
               | 
               | tl;dr At some depth, you ask questions beyond the
               | scientific method itself.
        
               | gher-shyu3i wrote:
               | Your argument is a straw man.
        
               | marshmallow_12 wrote:
               | let me rephrase; science has limited itself to
               | understanding the laws of Nature. It can never tell us
               | how the world -and thus life- came to be. I admit your
               | argument was a good one. But not the anti religious
               | points. Essentially atheists has declared Nature as the
               | true god. In the rules he has imposed, he has left us
               | with no choice. Science has hardly managed to do away
               | with god, it has merely managed to exchange him as it
               | were.
               | 
               | I will also argue that atheism is a religion. There is
               | nothing more exciting than being able to throw off the
               | rules of one god by replacing him with another who asks
               | for nothing.
        
               | michaelmrose wrote:
               | Only theists conceive of God as an essential element and
               | thereby perceive a god shaped hole in atheists world
               | view? What religion does your cat practice for example?
               | 
               | Nature is like gravity it is a label we attach to things
               | in order to communicate about some aspect of our mental
               | models of the universe we share or imagine we share
               | sufficiently to communicate theories about the underlying
               | thing those models point to. It isn't in most cases not
               | imagined to be a sentience modeled after ourselves but
               | rather an abstraction around some aspects of everything
               | in the overarching model.
               | 
               | Religion, Philosophy, Science are all systems of models
               | of the world but they belong in different category based
               | on characteristics in the same way that a trout, a dog,
               | and an duck are all animals but they aren't all fish just
               | because they all swim.
               | 
               | Religion especially western religion has classically been
               | a pre scientific exploration of different theories about
               | how the world came to be lacking virtually all actual
               | understanding and focused on the idea that something much
               | like man writ large was responsible for the universe and
               | that the man who acted as conduit to the wishes off that
               | man would derive some measure of that beings power
               | mirroring primitive social structures and extending them
               | skyward to the fanciful creations of our own mind. As if
               | an ant had imagined the entire world was a giant burrow
               | made by giant ants who could make their wishes known to
               | lesser ants by way of the arrangements of your dogs
               | droppings in your yard.
               | 
               | Science is merely a system for harnessing the same
               | imagination but directed towards testing our fanciful
               | explanations and building an increasingly powerful set of
               | facts and models that are extremely likely to be somewhat
               | true. We by the nature of our brains are builders of
               | models and we must have them to exist and to progress but
               | we don't need to build a system that glorifies the very
               | flaws to which our minds are most heir to and exploits
               | them. That is to say we haven't replaced God with nature
               | we have simply built mental models of the universe that
               | don't contain a first cause because we don't believe
               | there is a conscious act at the center of it all.
               | 
               | Those of us who have wings know that a wing isn't a
               | different kind of fin and a rocket engine isn't a
               | different sort of wing and naked is not a style of pants.
               | 
               | There is no reason that we can't at the end of a long
               | road have a pretty good idea how how life on earth came
               | to be in the same way as we have a pretty good idea of
               | how to continents came to be as they are. It wont be
               | perfect but it will keep getting better every year as we
               | learn more.
               | 
               | Your god was invented thousands of years ago so someone
               | could claim to speak for him and attain status within his
               | or her tribe without hunting more animals a trick that
               | amazingly still works NOW. Throwing off the yoke of his
               | adherents doesn't free one from the obligation of life,
               | meaning, your family, or your fellow man. It is a harder
               | obligation not an easier one. You incorrectly frame
               | casting out comforting lies and facing down a terrifying
               | truth as an easy way out but nothing could be further
               | from the truth.
               | 
               | If a lie it is and I for myself call it a lie then
               | adhering to it would be an unacceptable act of cowardice.
               | If you truly believe it then to you it is courage to
               | adhere to it but neither of our experiences is a lie and
               | you definitely do not understand mine or any other alike.
        
             | Shorel wrote:
             | Neither will religion.
             | 
             | It is very arrogant of any ideology to pretend it can
             | explain things it can't.
        
             | michaelmrose wrote:
             | I suggest you defend that position instead of stating it so
             | boldly and asking us to accept your reasoning.
        
               | gher-shyu3i wrote:
               | I mentioned in another comment just one counter example:
               | we cannot go back to before t=0 when the universe was
               | created. There is knowledge beyond the realm of space and
               | time which we have no access to.
        
               | zuminator wrote:
               | If the universe "began" at t=0, and life began at, let's
               | call it t=100, then all we need is access to t=99, not
               | all the way back to the beginning. I'm not saying that's
               | actually achievable, I'm just saying your argument is not
               | persuasive.
        
               | gher-shyu3i wrote:
               | I gave it as an example to close the debate fully,
               | because I'm aware of this line of arguing. The point
               | remains, (1) life will not be possible without the
               | universe, (2) the universe exists, and (3) we do not have
               | access to the knowledge about how the universe was
               | created, nor before it was created.
        
               | michaelmrose wrote:
               | Lets go to Wile E. Coyote for this one.
               | 
               | https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e2/f0/16/e2f0165777598a13c
               | 246...
               | 
               | Anvils would not be possible without the universe ergo we
               | cannot possible predict solely on our knowledge of Warner
               | Brothers physics and prior plot lines that the anvil trap
               | he is laying will fall on his own head comically
               | flattening him yet somehow leaving him alive and ready to
               | chase the road runner again in the next sketch.
               | 
               | Our models don't capture every aspect of the world but
               | good models capture enough to make increasingly good
               | predictions about the past and future and the more we
               | test them and winnow out the bad we approach but can
               | never achieve perfection. The origin of life isn't
               | inherently any different than the evolution of the
               | continents, the planets, or the tree of life over the
               | eons. No fundamental barrier stands in the way of our
               | understanding. You didn't "close the debate fully".
               | Nobody who didn't start out agreeing with you now does
               | and its because they understand things you do not.
        
         | gumby wrote:
         | HG Wells?
        
           | Vrondi wrote:
           | Yes: War of the Worlds
        
           | hutzlibu wrote:
           | It is.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | There's a concept in domestication that it's not always clear
         | in a symbiotic relationship as to which party is in 'control'
         | of the relationship, especially when one party gets a huge
         | boost in reproductive rates from the other. Did humans
         | domesticate dogs, or did dogs domesticate humans?
         | 
         | Viruses are specialized. They won't attack aliens. Bacteria
         | might. It's the fungi in many respects that are the masters of
         | this planet. If we manage to destroy ourselves so badly that we
         | take out most multicellular organisms as well, it'll be the
         | fungi that rebuild the ecology.
         | 
         | It'll probably be the fungi that the aliens have to worry about
         | too.
        
           | Verdex wrote:
           | This is one of the things that I like about the expanse
           | series. When people first start moving out to alien
           | ecosystems, they specifically go into how alien viruses etc
           | are probably not going to be a problem. The metaphor they use
           | is "mining" basically. Where they're not concerned that
           | people will get infected, but they're concerned that some
           | organism will find out that people are full of some resource
           | that the organism can use.
           | 
           | And in fact they bump into some sort of algae that lives in
           | the atmosphere that really likes the saline mixture that
           | makes up most of the liquid in our bodies.
        
             | elliekelly wrote:
             | I've never heard of the Expanse series but your mining
             | comment is both terrifying and intriguing! DuckDuckGo tells
             | me it's both a series of novels and a Syfy TV series - I'm
             | curious which one (or perhaps both?) you're referring to so
             | I can add it to my read and/or watch list.
        
               | Verdex wrote:
               | I prefer the books but the episodes I saw were all really
               | good. I think I watched to seasson 3.
        
               | ido wrote:
               | They both tell more or less the same story (the show is
               | based on the books) but I believe they were referring to
               | the tv show.
        
               | cbsks wrote:
               | The series is streaming on Amazon Prime, FYI
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | elsonrodriguez wrote:
               | I experienced the Expanse by watching the first season,
               | binging all the books because I was impatient, then
               | watching the rest with my partner.
               | 
               | I feel I've gotten the best of both by doing that.
        
           | dehrmann wrote:
           | > which party is in 'control' of the relationship
           | 
           | Any one taking care of a cat knows this well.
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | It's the toxoplasmosis in control, right?
        
           | burnte wrote:
           | Viruses will attack anything they can successfully reproduce
           | in, they have absolutely no preferences. They are binary,
           | they survive and thrive or they don't. That's why some
           | viruses can sucessfully jump species, and some can't, some
           | viruses are able to survive in multiple hosts through dumb
           | luck. Yes, they all need specific types of conditions in
           | their hosts to survive, but they don't care if it's a big, a
           | dog, a human, or an alien. If it gets what it needs, it'll go
           | there.
           | 
           | Note: I'm not saying viruses don't have conditions they need
           | met, they do, obviously. I'm saying they can attack an alien
           | just as likely as they can a human.
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | Yes, viruses don't care. But at the same time, I am
             | doubtful that they could.
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | We don't really know whether other forms of life would use
             | proteins, or make the same ones the same way we do.
             | 
             | Both of those things are important to all of the viruses we
             | have experience with.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | mrkstu wrote:
             | Viruses have evolved to hijack DNA- I'd find it highly
             | unlikely a truly alien biology would be susceptible to
             | earth viruses. Maybe some truly primitive precursor virus
             | may have been able to, but I'd think any of those would be
             | long gone.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | But will the alien viruses attack us?
        
       | jdlyga wrote:
       | Rhino Virus
        
       | spinny wrote:
       | well guess we are all f'ed anyway ... many countries are
       | reporting record low numbers for the common cold ... because
       | covid. in many places the common cold is the new covid, it seems.
       | 
       | and my fifi's got massively offended by the usage of the word
       | "trump". my inner ninja karen is about to pull the facemask and
       | do a reeeeeeeeeee mortal kombat finish move
        
       | etiam wrote:
       | Maybe this could be an explanation for the most unexpected dip in
       | COVID-19 infection around January. Does data for rhinovirus
       | infections get collected to such an extent that it would be
       | possible to compare curves?
        
         | danaliv wrote:
         | I thought the January dip was from the end of holiday travel.
        
           | thehappypm wrote:
           | Short answer is nobody knows. The winter spike began around
           | late October so you can't say it had much to do with holidays
           | really -- maybe it's weather, made worse by holiday travel,
           | made worse by students being back in school.
        
           | throwaway122378 wrote:
           | The dip was correlated to Trump leaving office.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | Flu cases are _way_ down, so by proxy, I 'd assume colds are
         | also down unless a lot more people got flu shots this season.
        
       | klebe wrote:
       | adults average 2-4 colds per year; kids even more so (6-8)
       | 
       | Think about all the natural immunity we squandered by locking
       | everyone down.....not only did we miss out on herd immunity, but
       | now it seems that even the common cold would've acted as a
       | defense system
       | 
       | experts are to be doubted. always.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
        
         | trhway wrote:
         | >all the natural immunity we squandered by locking everyone
         | down
         | 
         | especially when it comes to children. It has already been
         | established that the too sanitized modern existence leads to
         | increase of allergies/autoimmunes/etc. Now the lockdowns and
         | masks (which judging by the numbers haven't so far helped much
         | with Covid) denied to children the early immune system "cross-
         | pollination" of kinder-gardens/schools/etc. , thus one can
         | expect even more immune system related issues down the road.
         | 
         | >experts are to be doubted. always
         | 
         | different experts were saying different things (like those
         | epidemiologists saying that blocking people from beach is
         | meaningless to say the least - i mean it is obvious even for
         | non-experts, yet politicians still did it in order to "Do
         | Something"). The key here is the choice of an expert to listen
         | to, the choice made by the politicians and the populace scared
         | by them.
        
       | grumpwagon wrote:
       | All I can think of is the Simpsons gif of Mr Burns being alive
       | because he has so many ailments they all cancel each other out.
       | 
       | [0] https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/951930408261881856
        
         | Techbrunch wrote:
         | Mr. Burns is Indestructible:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aI0euMFAWF8
        
         | rrmm wrote:
         | Ah, The three stooges syndrome, whoop whoop whoop whoop!
        
       | sktrdie wrote:
       | Yeah but once you're better, covid is free to infect you.
        
         | postalrat wrote:
         | Then just make sure you are infected with both.
        
       | calltrak wrote:
       | https://picc.io/tq2sFHU.png
        
       | dragonwriter wrote:
       | There are many different viruses that cause the "common cold",
       | including various coronaviruses; this is specifically about some
       | rhinoviruses.
        
       | cdrini wrote:
       | This seems unlikely to scale out of the lab. The experiment used
       | a "replica of the lining of our airways, made out of the same
       | types of cells, and infected it with Sars-CoV-2 and rhinovirus".
       | Although rhinoviruses primarily target receptors found in the
       | airway, Sars-Cov-2 targets the ACE2 receptor, which is found in
       | just about every organ in your body. If the airway cells were
       | "occupied" by rhinoviruses, then Sars-Cov-2 could just travel to
       | the lungs and infect the cells there. Or to the cells of your
       | olfactory system, and cause loss of smell. Or to your stomach.
       | Although it is interesting that these viruses compete when
       | targeting the same cells, using rhinoviruses to prevent Sars-
       | Cov-2 seems very unlikely in the real world.
        
         | TheBlight wrote:
         | Are you a doctor or biologist?
        
       | mrkramer wrote:
       | Another reason I personally would not like to get vaccinated.
       | Nature and evolution solve all problems sooner or later.
        
         | shishy wrote:
         | Talk about confirmation bias!
        
         | robotbikes wrote:
         | People should be free to make choices regarding their own body
         | but the notion of "nature" as an anthromorphic problem solver
         | and superiority of genes is pretty out of sync with our
         | reality. There are many augmentations we use to help survive
         | and vaccines are no different. Glasses for instance are not
         | "natural" but I don't see many people arguing that we should
         | only let those with 20/20 vision survive. Going down that route
         | leads to a lot of toxic notions. Writing this during the 15
         | minutes cool down after getting the first vaccine shot. So I
         | know where I stand.
        
           | mrkramer wrote:
           | >Glasses for instance are not "natural" but I don't see many
           | people arguing that we should only let those with 20/20
           | vision survive.
           | 
           | I agree with you. Glasses and vaccine are great achievements
           | of human civilization but I raised questions about freedom,
           | biology and moral.
           | 
           | I'm not against vaccination I took many of them as a child
           | and I have glasses which help and enhance me significantly
           | but I'm not for mandatory vaccination or COVID passports that
           | my European Union wants to enforce and I'm not for European
           | Union limiting my human rights. We are going back to the days
           | of Hitler where it was more important who you are
           | "biologically" than looking at the fact that we are all
           | humans and that we all have equal rights.
        
           | Mediterraneo10 wrote:
           | > Glasses for instance are not "natural"
           | 
           | There is quite a bit of pseudoscience on the internet that
           | people don't really need glasses, they can train their eyes
           | to work without them. See, for instance, the so-called Bates
           | method[0], which had been well-debunked already in the
           | mid-20th-century but, like so many quack claims, got a new
           | life from the web.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bates_method
        
         | anonymouswacker wrote:
         | I share your skepticism. Vaccines are a relatively new
         | technology, with various buggy vaccines coming out that were
         | actually more harmful than helpful. Time will tell if the mRNA
         | "Vaccine" will be a net positive. I am totally okay with other
         | people injecting whatever they want in their bodies, as long as
         | they don't try to make me do it, too. I would rather die of
         | natural causes than a rushed-to-market product.
        
           | andruby wrote:
           | What do you mean "Vaccines are a relatively new technology"?
           | 
           | We've had vaccines since 1796 [0] when Edward Jenner
           | developed a vaccine for smallpox, a terrible disease that we
           | fully eradicated thanks to vaccination. A disease that you
           | and me don't have to worry about because of vaccines.
           | 
           | (Likewise for Cholera, Tetanus, Polio, Tuberculosis,
           | Meningitis, etc)
           | 
           | Also, trains, cars, planes, cameras, lightbulbs and every
           | invention of Edison are newer technologies than vaccines.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_human_vaccines
        
             | mamon wrote:
             | Maybe they mean "mRNA vaccines"? COVID vaccine is the first
             | of this kind, so some side effects, especially long term
             | ones, are still unknown. It's still unlikely that they
             | would be very serious but we won't know for sure until 10
             | years from now.
        
         | hef19898 wrote:
         | The "later" part is the problem so.
        
           | mrkramer wrote:
           | I mean it is natural selection if I'm weak I will die if I'm
           | not I will pass my genes to my kids. That's how we evolved to
           | the level of biological machine that human body is.
        
             | the_af wrote:
             | > _I mean it is natural selection if I 'm weak I will die
             | if I'm not I will pass my genes to my kids._
             | 
             | That's not how natural selection works.
        
             | eCa wrote:
             | I will (most likely) not have kids, but even if I'm weak I
             | don't see it as my duty to die in order to not dilute the
             | species.
        
             | Zelphyr wrote:
             | It's not you dying that's the problem with your statement
             | so much as the other people you're going to kill because of
             | your choice not to get vaccinated.
             | 
             | That's one step away from a family member of mine saying
             | recently, "You all can live in fear but I choose to live my
             | life in faith that God will take care of me."
        
               | gjs278 wrote:
               | all of those people are weak and it was their time to die
        
             | hyko wrote:
             | If you absolutely have to resort to trial and error, at
             | least don't be the error.
             | 
             | Natural Selection is as dumb as a box of rocks and slow as
             | molasses; when it comes to achieving a goal we humans do
             | _far_ better, far faster.
             | 
             | There's obviously the merest whiff of trolling here, but
             | come on.
             | 
             | *Edited so as not to besmirch the good name of frogs.
        
             | james4k wrote:
             | Natural selection gave us the social structures that allow
             | you to buy your cold cuts and quietly hoard your wealth so
             | that you don't have to face an ounce of real hardship in
             | your life.
        
             | marcodiego wrote:
             | So, why don't you move to the wilderness and leaves the
             | internet for us, the weak ones?
        
             | hprotagonist wrote:
             | and now we're evolved enough to have brains capable of
             | giving us a competitive advantage against diseases!
             | 
             | unless you think that brains somehow aren't part of our
             | biological machine.
        
               | NicoJuicy wrote:
               | How about IVF and that it becomes almost a necessity for
               | all their children.
               | 
               | Or the increased necessity of glasses at a young age.
               | 
               | It's not the beneficiaries particular brain that gave the
               | competitive edge ;)
        
               | Omnitaus wrote:
               | This is only an issue if everyone wants or needs kids.
               | Glasses are similarly not a big deal. I feel like you
               | could have used better examples to argue in favor of
               | eugenics but at the end of the day it's still eugenics?
               | People should have access to any and all medical
               | advancements, better to address the problem than ignore
               | it with selective breeding
        
             | meowface wrote:
             | But if you're not "weak", you could inadvertently spread it
             | to someone who is "weak", and they could spread it to many
             | other "weak" people, and then they all die and don't pass
             | on their genes. It's true that this is a form of eugenics
             | and natural selection, but it's not the kind that's
             | compatible with the values of most humans.
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | Don't worry I'm not going to harm anyone just like
               | Spanish flu ended in 2 years this pandemic will also end
               | soon. I discussed months ago here on HN that looking
               | legally causing someone's death without intent is not
               | criminal because you had no intent of killing. Take a
               | look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mens_rea
               | 
               | "A person commits an offense if he: intentionally or
               | knowingly causes the death of an individual."
               | 
               | I have no intent or knowledge that I'm going to harm
               | anyone.
               | 
               | Another guy said in that discussion something like "How
               | is this virus any different from other viruses?"
               | 
               | Should I blame people for spreading STDs for example? Of
               | course not they spread it unintentionally and without
               | knowledge in most cases.
        
               | nkohari wrote:
               | Legality and ethics are two distinct things.
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | I know but legal system is based on ethics. E.g. not
               | stealing or not killing etc.
        
               | SirSavary wrote:
               | You better hope that the judge handling your case doesn't
               | stumble upon this comment thread. Your lack of Mens Rea
               | isn't going to fly if you're caught meta-discussing the
               | whole thing.
               | 
               | Also, manslaughter?
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | I'm not a lawyer but am I guilty because I want my human
               | rights and my freedom of choice?
               | 
               | Should I blame you or any other person of spreading STDs
               | for example? Or any other disease without intent or
               | knowledge?
               | 
               | I welcome any legal advice because I have no INTENTION of
               | HARMING anyone.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | > I have no INTENTION of HARMING anyone.
               | 
               | I feel the same way when I'm doing 150mph down the
               | highway. And yet...
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | If you kill somebody you will be charged for involuntary
               | manslaughter or constructive manslaughter depending on
               | what speed limit was but if I sit next to you
               | unvaccinated in a waiting room should I be charged as
               | well?
        
               | Omnitaus wrote:
               | I mean if you're against vaccines, the best public health
               | measure since soap, perhaps you're the weakest link we're
               | begging natural selection to act on. Hope you don't use
               | glasses, take antibiotics, receive surgery, or benefit
               | otherwise from the million and one things humans have
               | invented so as to not deal with random selection
               | dependent on changing external stimuli
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | >I mean if you're against vaccines, the best public
               | health measure since soap, perhaps you're the weakest
               | link we're begging natural selection to act on.
               | 
               | I'm not against vaccination I'm against mandatory
               | vaccination and limiting my human rights if I don't
               | vaccinate. Nobody will prevent you from visiting a
               | country if you don't use glasses, take antibiotics or
               | anything else you mentioned.
               | 
               | I never visited Africa but I heard there are some
               | security measures regarding Malaria but c'mon forbidding
               | someone to work or travel only because he or she didn't
               | get vaccinated against 1 pathogen is over the top.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | I guess you're against sovereignty of nations other than
               | your own? Plus how are they going to buy your country's
               | vaccine if you/your countrymen won't take it?
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | sunopener wrote:
               | > weakest link Oh boy, oh boy... at what point do we get
               | to admit we're fascists?!?!
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | Are you asking for an ethical opinion, or legal one? I am
               | no lawyer, I have no idea if you could be on the hook for
               | reckless endangerment. If you know that your choice is
               | risky, and you fail to act, then there are circumstances
               | when you could be criminally liable. But usually these
               | are situations where the law prescribes a duty to act.
               | 
               | Are you comfortable endangering those around you because
               | protecting them is an inconvenient imposition on your
               | freedom? That's an entirely different issue.
        
               | sunopener wrote:
               | You feel the same way when your having a conscious
               | experience. There's no way I could hurt someone by being
               | conscious... is there?
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | And btw I understand what manslaughter is but again I'm
               | not a lawyer. Refer me to any case or cases where someone
               | is guilty of spreading a virus without
               | intent(Involuntary).
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | Laws adopted in the course of the HIV pandemic in many
               | jurisdictions made various acts that were more likely to
               | spread the virus criminal if you knew you were infected
               | unless other people put at risk were informed of the fact
               | and consented to the risk, whether or not you intended to
               | cause harm.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | First google result:
               | https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-
               | law/courts/circuit.... It's not difficult to find more
               | examples.
               | 
               | If you know or could reasonably suspect you have a lethal
               | virus and still go out without taking proper precautions
               | then that is absolutely something people have sued over
               | many many times.
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | It is unclear whether defendant was aware of having a
               | HIV. It seems like he had no intent of spreading a
               | disease and had limited or no knowledge of having it.
               | 
               | "I didn't really do it intentionally but when we were
               | drunk it ended up happening"."
               | 
               | How the case ended?
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > I discussed months ago here on HN that looking legally
               | causing someone's death without intent is not criminal
               | because you had no intent of killing
               | 
               | Intentional killing is usually first degree murder, or
               | voluntary manslaughter, depending on premeditation.
               | Second (in some schemes third) degree murder (depraved
               | indifference) and involuntary manslaughter, and negligent
               | homicide all are crimes, and do not require intent to
               | kill.
               | 
               | So, you are very, very wrong.
               | 
               | > I have no intent or knowledge that I'm going to harm
               | anyone
               | 
               | The source you link notes that there are other levels of
               | _mens rea_ supporting criminal offenses (recklessness,
               | negligence) as well as offenses which are not dependent
               | on mental state at all (strict liability offenses.)
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | I understand what involuntary manslaughter is but does it
               | apply to spreading a virus? I'm not a lawyer but if it
               | does I will act accordingly and try not to commit
               | involuntary manslaughter hypothetically speaking.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > I understand what involuntary manslaughter is but does
               | it apply to spreading a virus?
               | 
               | Neither depraved heart murder nor involuntary
               | manslaughter has an _exception_ for viral-agent-as-
               | mechanism on any jurisdiction I 'm familiar with.
        
             | sobriquet9 wrote:
             | You augment your memory with Google searches and your
             | running speed with cars, why not augment your natural
             | immune system with vaccines.
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | Well, I am about to get vaccinated with astrazeneca in
               | half an hour ... but my counter argument would be:
               | relying on vaccination and sterilisation too much, causes
               | the immune system to be weak, too. Immune system needs
               | practice, too.
        
               | marcodiego wrote:
               | Antibiotics, maybe. But vaccines stimulate your immune
               | system to produce antibodies.
        
               | maxrev17 wrote:
               | That's literally what the jab does?
        
               | manwe150 wrote:
               | I came to counter him with a joke, but the downvoters
               | beat me to it. Anyways:
               | 
               | The vaccine is more like going to the gym. We could
               | continue our ancestor's practice of trying to run from
               | lions, which was possibly better adrenaline practice, and
               | even mostly successful. We might not be scientifically
               | certain of the long-term side-effects of going to the
               | gym, but I'll just rely on the gym nonetheless. And good
               | for you going to the gym too!
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | Agreed.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Vaccines are immune system training on literal steroids.
               | Overall I get your point so, as we see with increased
               | allergies.
        
               | biswaroop wrote:
               | > relying on vaccination and sterilisation too much,
               | causes the immune system to be weak
               | 
               | I think you fundamentally misunderstand the mechanism of
               | vaccination.
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | I think I do, but do you?
               | 
               | Because the way I understand it, vaccination trains only
               | a very specific part of the immune system. Which is then
               | indeed effective against the very specific virus, but
               | does not really increase your general immune system
               | strength.
        
               | Omnitaus wrote:
               | Huh, it's almost as if the vaccine is to innoculate me
               | against a specific lethal pathogen that I don't want to
               | risk training my immune system on
               | 
               | If you want a better overall immune system eat better and
               | excercise, there is zero reason to avoid a vaccine unless
               | you're immunocompromised or allergic
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | "there is zero reason to avoid a vaccine unless you're
               | immunocompromised or allergic"
               | 
               |  _sigh_ did you really get all the vaccines, that exist?
               | 
               | I doubt so. I actually never heard anyone recomending
               | that. Quite the contrary. The idea is to get vaccinated
               | against diseases you are likely to get in contact with -
               | and then you still have to think about it, if it is worth
               | it. Because EVERY vaccination has potential negative side
               | effects, some quite severe.
               | 
               | So now there is a great chance to get in contact with
               | Covid - so yeah, it makes sense to take that vaccine. I
               | think I said, I did today.
               | 
               | But taking every vaccination?!? Come on. Or provide a
               | source that the WHO or alike do recommend it. That would
               | surprise me, as I traveled quite a bit and therefore
               | discussed various vaccines with various doctors before.
               | 
               | And also, I never implied that you should skip a vaccine
               | to get training on that disease. I said if you rely too
               | much on sterilisation and vaccines - it does not help
               | your immune system overal. Counterclaims to that? I doubt
               | it. I am a bit annoyed by that bite-reflex of the crowd
               | here. Maybe save that for the anti-vaxxers?
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | Reply to all:
               | 
               | (you all missed the sterilisation part and the "relying
               | too much")
               | 
               | And well yes, vaccination is training. And training is
               | good. Thats why I just did it. But training is not a real
               | fight. Real battle experience beats training experience
               | by far. At least in martial arts.(and as far as I know
               | with the immune system, too. the immune system is a
               | little bit more sophisticated than "antibodies". And the
               | vaccinations mostly train only one part of it - the
               | antibodies)
               | 
               | Meaning when your body would be vaccinated against
               | everything known in a sterilized environment - he would
               | never have to fight for real. Just against cripled germs
               | or parts of them. So chances would be, a great
               | disadvantage when facing a new disease it did not train
               | for. A disease that is actively attacking and not just
               | providing dna to read and store.
               | 
               | And my immune system is in a quite good shape(I travelled
               | a lot off grid), which is why I actually was indeed more
               | sceptical to the vaccination than the actual disease.
               | Because it is a new technology. And nobody can guarantee,
               | that the side effects are not worse for me, than the
               | disease would be. Especially in the long run. Autoimmune
               | diseases are increasing a lot. I can only trust the
               | developers that their genetically modified cure does not
               | mess with my immune system. I recon chances are low, so I
               | got the shot.
        
               | belinder wrote:
               | Vaccine is the practice
        
             | quonn wrote:
             | What strength is there in being able to resist COVID-19
             | specifically, which is just one arbitrary sickness out of
             | many that can still arise? One that didn't even exist until
             | recently?
             | 
             | Strength and weakness are completely dependent on the
             | environment and we are shaping that environment, for
             | example by vaccinating.
        
         | Robotbeat wrote:
         | Well, I prefer to prove my fitness by having the sense to be
         | vaccinated rather than trying to fight against drowning in
         | mucus.
        
         | grumpwagon wrote:
         | Please get vaccinated, it's good for society and yourself.
        
           | ghoward wrote:
           | Not the GP.
           | 
           | Because society has accepted liability for vaccine injury (ht
           | tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Childhood_Vaccine_Inj...
           | and https://www.medicallicenselawyers.com/blog/covid-19-vacci
           | ne-...), it seems to me that it would be good for society for
           | me to make the best choice for myself about the vaccine.
           | Since society will pay if I get hurt, it would be best for me
           | to weigh that in the decision to get vaccinated.
        
           | mrkramer wrote:
           | I will if government requires it but it was not my free will.
        
             | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
             | That would still be your free will. You'd still be
             | presented with a choice:
             | 
             | A) Don't do the thing you don't want to (Vaccination)
             | 
             | - or -
             | 
             | B) Don't do the thing that having a vaccination would let
             | you do.
             | 
             | That's still freedom of choice - you're free to decide what
             | you want more. Having constraints on you isn't removing
             | your free will.
        
               | gjs278 wrote:
               | that's barely freedom of choice. a robber pulling a gun
               | on you and saying your money or your life isn't what any
               | reasonable person interprets as free will. free will
               | would be not going to jail or being banned from society
               | if you chose not to take the vaccine.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | Is there any such discussion about being banned from
               | society or going to jail? That seems incredibly
               | hyperbolic. What I've heard is discussions of things like
               | cruises and international travel to certain destination,
               | which are entirely optional activities.
        
             | guscost wrote:
             | Funny, I'm the opposite. I would have no significant
             | reservations if it wasn't for the creepy fascist vibe
             | oozing from beneath the facade of "science".
             | 
             | As it stands, I'll go to war today and die to guarantee my
             | and your and everyone's right to refuse, should TPTB
             | actually try anything that stupid. Shouldn't be a problem
             | though, the people in favor seem to be mostly bullies
             | making noise. They tend to shut up when you let them know
             | that their only path forward is to start, and then try to
             | win, a war.
        
               | anoonmoose wrote:
               | "I believe the vaccine works and I'll die for your right
               | not to take it" is one hell of a take, and I'm just happy
               | there really aren't that many of you out there.
               | 
               | You may want to remove the link in your profile where you
               | express skepticism that we'll hit millions of deaths
               | worldwide, as it's going to make people question your
               | already questionable viewpoints even more.
        
               | guscost wrote:
               | A wild bully appears!
               | 
               | > skepticism that we'll hit millions of deaths worldwide
               | 
               | Here's the exact quote from the blog, in case any
               | bystanders suspect that this person _might not be arguing
               | in good faith_ :
               | 
               | "Personally I don't think that millions of healthy people
               | will ever drop dead from one of these diseases in the
               | space of a year, like they once did from a flu in 1918."
               | 
               | > I'm just happy there really aren't that many of you out
               | there.
               | 
               | Should it come to the point where "dying for rights" is a
               | real thing again (in America), I guess you'll find out.
        
               | anoonmoose wrote:
               | Question- since there are plenty of vaccines that are
               | already mandatory for various things in the US, shouldn't
               | you already be dying for your rights?
        
               | ghoward wrote:
               | Not the GP, but those laws are unconstitutional. If we
               | don't assert our rights, we will lose them.
               | 
               | "Those who will give up liberty for security [from a
               | virus] will lose both."
        
               | anoonmoose wrote:
               | not only are you not the GP, you also didn't and can't
               | answer my question
        
               | ghoward wrote:
               | If you are not willing to die for them, you will lose
               | them.
               | 
               | We are, in fact, losing them now, so yes, now is the time
               | to be willing to die for them.
        
               | brigandish wrote:
               | It's hardly a surprise that someone who believes strongly
               | in personal freedom might fight to defend it for (what
               | are supposedly) liberal societies, especially given that
               | several very large wars of the 20th century (hot and
               | cold) are often described as fights for freedom, and
               | usual for the freedom of of others and of all.
               | 
               | This is basically the default position of every liberal
               | (not in the misapplied American parlance) for at least
               | 150 years now and surely far longer.
               | 
               | "War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the
               | decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling
               | which thinks that nothing is worth a war, is much worse.
               | When a people are used as mere human instruments for
               | firing cannon or thrusting bayonets, in the service and
               | for the selfish purposes of a master, such war degrades a
               | people. A war to protect other human beings against
               | tyrannical injustice; a war to give victory to their own
               | ideas of right and good, and which is their own war,
               | carried on for an honest purpose by their free choice, --
               | is often the means of their regeneration. A man who has
               | nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which
               | he cares more about than he does about his personal
               | safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of
               | being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of
               | better men than himself. As long as justice and injustice
               | have not terminated their ever-renewing fight for
               | ascendancy in the affairs of mankind, human beings must
               | be willing, when need is, to do battle for the one
               | against the other."
               | 
               | John Stuart Mill, 1862
               | 
               | https://www.bartleby.com/73/1934.html
        
               | kbelder wrote:
               | That's my stance. I'll get vaccinated, I'd recommend it
               | to others, but wouldn't want to live in a society where
               | it was mandatory.
        
               | anoonmoose wrote:
               | there are a lot of things that are mandatory in this
               | country, some of which I think should not be, and some of
               | which I think should be
               | 
               | I think vaccines are a good one to be mandatory
        
               | Karsteski wrote:
               | Which country are you talking about?
        
               | bart_spoon wrote:
               | No one is holding people down and injecting them with a
               | vaccine. Everyone has the right to refuse. But society
               | also has a right (and an obligation) to ensure that
               | externalities are costed appropriately. You refusing a
               | vaccine is a choice, but it also negatively affects
               | others around you.
               | 
               | Whether its in the form of tax penalties, barred
               | admission from public services, vaccination "passport"
               | campaigns, or what have you, there needs to be a cost to
               | associated with the damage your personal decision does to
               | our society. If refusing a vaccine is truly that
               | important to you, you are welcome to pay the cost. But I
               | suspect many anti-vaxxers are simply societal freeloaders
               | whose "principles" will melt away when they actually cost
               | them something.
        
         | cashewchoo wrote:
         | Unfortunately for us, nature and evolution "solving problems"
         | frequently involves us all just dying and/or Earth spending a
         | long period of time as a magma ocean and then several aeons as
         | a hot rock.
        
           | myself248 wrote:
           | "The _planet_ is fine. It 's the _people_ that 're fucked!"
           | -- Carlin
        
         | AshWolfy wrote:
         | Humans are a part of nature and vaccines are an evolutionary
         | adaptation
        
         | meowface wrote:
         | >However, Covid would be able to cause an infection again once
         | the cold had passed and the immune response calmed down.
         | 
         | >Dr Murcia said: "Vaccination, plus hygiene measures, plus the
         | interactions between viruses could lower the incidence of Sars-
         | CoV-2 heavily, but the maximum effect will come from
         | vaccination."
         | 
         | Vaccines are an end product of nature and evolution, too, and
         | are much more reliable than hoping you always happen to get
         | infected with rhinovirus near the same time you're exposed to
         | SARS-CoV-2.
        
           | mrkramer wrote:
           | >Vaccines are an end product of nature and evolution, too,
           | and are much more reliable than hoping you always happen to
           | get infected with rhinovirus near the same time you're
           | exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
           | 
           | I agree with you but how safe is mRNA vaccine in the long
           | term? I would rather take "classical" vaccine.
        
         | itsmeamario wrote:
         | Tell that to the dinosaurs.
        
           | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
           | Pretty sure dinosaurs didn't die from Covid.
           | 
           | (But it's a good theory, who really knows, amirite?)
        
           | hypertele-Xii wrote:
           | They grew wings and spread to every corner of the Earth? We
           | call them "birds" now.
        
         | marcodiego wrote:
         | Evolution gaves us very powerful brains. Why not use it?
        
         | _joel wrote:
         | You might be happy to die needlessly but you endager others who
         | don't want to.
        
           | ghoward wrote:
           | Not the GP, but I have a question for you: if the vaccine
           | works, why would I be putting others in danger by not getting
           | it? Can't they get vaccinated instead?
           | 
           | If they can't, doesn't that just mean the vaccine is
           | defective? As far as I know, vaccines are meant for those who
           | are weaker, so if they can't get it, it seems to me that the
           | vaccine is defective.
           | 
           | Also, the CDC has admitted that the asymptomatic transmission
           | rate is far less than previously thought. (https://www.cdc.go
           | v/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7004e3.htm?s_cid=mm...)
           | 
           | With all of that put together, it seems to me that if I am
           | healthy, it would be better for me to save the vaccines for
           | those who want them and need them and let my immune system
           | build my immunity.
        
             | Tagbert wrote:
             | If we have a significant population of unvaccinated people,
             | that provides the breeding ground for the virus to multiply
             | and mutate into new strains that may bypass the current
             | vaccine induced immunity which would require yet another
             | round of vaccines.
        
               | ghoward wrote:
               | Vaccinated people are still breeding grounds for a virus;
               | they can still be carriers. Vaccines just give people the
               | antibodies to not be affected by a virus.
        
               | _joel wrote:
               | But they are vastly less likely to shed if they have been
               | vaccinated, therefore less transmission.
               | 
               | https://theconversation.com/can-vaccinated-people-still-
               | spre...
        
               | ghoward wrote:
               | That article gave no numbers. It made a claim and didn't
               | back it up.
        
               | _joel wrote:
               | There's links in the article to Scientific American which
               | also had papers from October 2020.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | ghoward wrote:
               | Cool. Where does that dispute the fact that those who are
               | vaccinated are still breeding grounds for new variants of
               | the virus?
        
               | _joel wrote:
               | If they shed less then they are less transmissible, it's
               | in the article. It isn't about completely erradicating
               | tranmission but bringing it to a level where the problem
               | receeds. It's statistics, not a binary thing.
        
         | Dudideloo wrote:
         | I'd love to hear that from you when you're going to die.
        
         | nomy99 wrote:
         | You do understand that nature/evolution's plan or 'solution'
         | can be to eradicate you?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | mrkramer wrote:
           | Should I cry that mother nature doesn't like me? It's not
           | like I can do something about natural disaster(hurricane,
           | flood, earthquake, volcano eruption etc.) killing me.
        
             | nomy99 wrote:
             | No but you should not assume that defaulting to the
             | victim's mindset will help your chances of survival. Your
             | initial comment implied that nature has your best interest
             | in heart; and your child comment is contradicting it?
             | 
             | What's so hard about taking a cautious approach and
             | proactively increase your chances of survival? I.e get to
             | higher grounds (floods), evacuating(hurricanes), get
             | vaccinated (covid + new diseases?), etc.
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | I don't have time to explain you anymore but I will say
               | this. I'm liberal, pro God and pro Science. I don't have
               | anything against God or nature taking my life away or
               | improving it (evolution) and I don't have anything
               | against defense mechanisms like natural disaster controls
               | or public health measurements like vaccination but I want
               | my freedom. Someone said vaccination is our evolution I
               | agree maybe we are approaching singularity but nobody can
               | forbid me to work or travel because of 1 pathogen. I took
               | all vaccines prior to this but I will not take this one
               | so I can laugh at COVID passport because I live in free
               | Europe and not in Hitler's Europe anymore. If this
               | pandemic is something nearly close to Spanish Flu or
               | Black Plague which took hundreds of millions of lives I
               | would be the first one to take vaccine but not like this.
               | 
               | WHO's dubious approach and dubious rhetoric only made me
               | suspicious. I'm still waiting for their investigation on
               | where and how pandemic originated.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | So centuries of civil engineering advances by the
             | Netherlands and Japan don't count as 'doing something'?
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | Doing as an individual not as a society. Of course I can
               | go to engineering school and help build defense
               | mechanisms but as an average Joe I can move the needle
               | only so much. I was speaking about a life of an
               | individual not of human society or human civilization.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | You can choose to move away (although then you might have
               | to deal with lightning and tornadoes and droughts), or
               | you can choose to live in areas with better code
               | compliance. Those are still in your control.
        
               | mrkramer wrote:
               | Yea I or you should evaluate risk factors but there is
               | always a degree of randomness involved. There is no place
               | on Earth you are 100% safe from natural disasters.
        
             | thelean12 wrote:
             | If a Cat 5 hurricane is heading directly towards you, would
             | you stay and say "If nature wants to kill me it can.
             | Nothing I can do", or would you idk... go somewhere else?
             | 
             | When the tide comes in while you're on the beach, do you
             | stay and accept your fate? Or do you move?
        
       | guscost wrote:
       | All human coronavirus diseases, including COVID-19, are colds.
       | Always have been. This one from 1890 might have been caused by
       | OC43:
       | 
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889-1890_pandemic
        
         | GavinMcG wrote:
         | I think this misunderstands what a "cold" is. Merely being a
         | respiratory infection doesn't make something a cold. We call
         | something a cold when it's 1) a mild upper respiratory
         | infection that 2) is viral, but 3) is not specifically
         | attributable.
         | 
         | There are colds caused by influenza viruses, but because "the
         | common cold is defined on the basis of its clinical
         | presentation, a mild influenza infection can accurately be
         | diagnosed as a cold, meaning that the two infections are not
         | completely distinct disease entities."[0] Once someone with a
         | cold tests positive for the flu, though, we would generally
         | correct the description to a mild case of the flu and no longer
         | say they have a cold.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.hmsreview.org/issue/2015/1/the-most-common-
         | illne...
        
           | danaliv wrote:
           | Ah, so in other words, a cold is a syndrome.
        
         | dcolkitt wrote:
         | This is a pretty interesting hypothesis. Maybe there's nothing
         | really special about SARS type coronaviruses besides their
         | novelty.
         | 
         | Is it possible that all coronaviruses, including the ones that
         | cause a common cold, have a similar morbidity profile to COVID?
         | Very minor infection in the young or those with previous
         | exposure, extremely deadly in the old and naive. Except we all
         | catch a bunch of colds in childhood, so nobody has to worry
         | about a cold wiping out nursing homes.
        
           | cdrini wrote:
           | No it's not possible. The thing that makes Sars-Cov-2 unique
           | is its binding site in the human body. Sars-Cov-2 binds to
           | the ACE2 receptor, which is found in just about every organ
           | in your body. Unlike many other viruses which target
           | receptors more localized to e.g. your throat/airway, Sars-
           | Cov-2 can infect cells in your nasal cavity, stomach, lungs,
           | heart, olfactory neurons, you name it. And every cell it
           | infects will be destroyed; either by bursting to release the
           | viral replicas, or by an immune system response.
        
             | Wintamute wrote:
             | I'm not sure that damage to various organs around the body
             | beyond respiratory system is that a unique of a property -
             | see myocarditis and the like related to influenza
             | infection, which is a significant cause of mortality.
        
             | franl wrote:
             | I'm not sure I've seen the difference described so clearly
             | and succinctly! How would you describe the seasonal flu in
             | this same regard to receptors?
        
               | Omnitaus wrote:
               | Seasonal flu is multiple different strains that can
               | exchange genetic material, as contrasted with COVID that
               | doesn't have different strains but small mutations
        
           | guscost wrote:
           | I have been saying this for many years, and have been
           | condescended to a lot (by friends, even) for saying it.
           | 
           | We clearly don't have the faintest understanding of the long-
           | term dynamics of something like SARS, when all the
           | conventional model parameters go to such extremes. And when
           | the disease is evolving. And when people retreat inside and
           | stop getting sun. And so on.
        
             | valarauko wrote:
             | > _I have been saying this for many years, and have been
             | condescended to a lot (by friends, even) for saying it._
             | 
             | What exactly have you been saying?
        
               | _nalply wrote:
               | He maintains that he has been laughed off for his wild
               | conspiracy theories.
        
               | valarauko wrote:
               | I'm unclear what the specific claim that he's been making
               | for years exactly is - that coronaviruses have a
               | morbidity profile similar to COVID, from the GP? Or that
               | we can't believe long term dynamics for disease models
               | because the parameters go to extremes?
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Yes that's possible, at least for some other coronavirus.
           | HCoV-OC43 is an endemic betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-
           | CoV-2. It typically causes common cold symptoms in healthy
           | people but is extremely dangerous to the elderly.
           | 
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2095096/
        
         | andruby wrote:
         | > are colds.
         | 
         | What constitutes a "cold"? Is there some kind of definition for
         | it?
        
           | maxerickson wrote:
           | It's a lay term for the various respiratory viruses that are
           | pretty much constantly in circulation, especially when the
           | infection is symptomatic.
           | 
           | So I think you have an implied question as to whether there
           | is some more specific meaning, the answer to that is no.
        
           | guscost wrote:
           | Exactly! Colds are poorly understood, and can be very
           | dangerous.
           | 
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4181476/
        
             | frenchy wrote:
             | I'm not sure this will really add anything to the
             | discussion, but I think the common usage of the term "cold"
             | is for an endemic, mostly-harmless disease, not just any
             | viral respiratory illness.
             | 
             | Also, my quick read of that paper was that it was mostly
             | concerned with immunocompromised individuals, and with
             | secondary pneumonia infections. Secondary pneumonia is
             | certainly a problem for old people, or otherwise vulnerable
             | people with colds. Antibiotics can be pretty helpful but
             | they have limitations.
        
             | Izkata wrote:
             | That link appears to be about the flu, not the common cold.
             | They're different, but something I've learned over the past
             | year is that most people think of the flu as another name
             | for the common cold.
        
               | detritus wrote:
               | Here in Britain at least, having 'the flu' is basically
               | having a particularly miserable cold - rather than a bout
               | of influenza which fills the lungs with fluids and
               | decimates armies.
        
           | rovr138 wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
           | 
           | > The common cold, also known simply as a cold, is a viral
           | infectious disease of the upper respiratory tract that
           | primarily affects the respiratory mucosa of the nose, throat,
           | sinuses, and larynx.
           | 
           | further down,
           | 
           | > Well over 200 virus strains are implicated in causing the
           | common cold, with rhinoviruses being the most common.[13]
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | nanis wrote:
         | Related comment of mine:
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26196318
        
       | grapecookie wrote:
       | We've know this since last may.
        
         | jimmaswell wrote:
         | Then why weren't we mass producing pills of cold viruses for
         | people to take?
        
           | Omnitaus wrote:
           | After the cold runs its course COVID can infect the cell
           | again, it still hangs around until it gets the opening
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | rootusrootus wrote:
       | I wonder if we will find out, as time goes on and the studies are
       | finished, that parents of school-age children were significantly
       | less likely to come down with severe COVID.
        
         | marsrover wrote:
         | It's an interesting thought. It is true that the further one is
         | from being around school-aged children (age wise), the more
         | likely they are to die.
        
       | timr wrote:
       | There has been a lot of (IMHO unsupported) speculation that the
       | almost complete eradication of influenza in 2020 was due to
       | competitive inhibition from SARS-CoV2. However, data I've seen
       | suggests that rhinovirus is still circulating at its usual rate
       | [1].
       | 
       | If it's true that rhinovirus is such a potent inhibitor of SARS-
       | CoV2, at the very least, the interplay between SARS-CoV2 and
       | other respiratory viruses is non-trivial, and doesn't explain the
       | complete suppression of influenza. Any simple hypothesis
       | involving "competitive inhibition" is likely to be wrong.
       | 
       | The fact that rhinovirus continues to circulate so widely should
       | also make people at least _question_ the dominant narrative
       | concerning masks and respiratory viruses. But I digress...
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/rp/percent_positivi...
        
         | manwe150 wrote:
         | If I'm reading that chart right, it is the percentage of
         | sicknesses caused by each virus type, not the rate of sickness
         | in the population. So we don't have information in this chart
         | on the absolute prevalence. The change in relative rates may
         | suggest which measures are relatively more effective on
         | different viruses, but doesn't help us analyze the
         | effectiveness of the current narrative.
         | 
         | On the research presented in the original article, what
         | predicted implications would this research have had for March
         | 2020? I thought 2020 seemed like a fairly average year for
         | colds up until March, when COVID spiked. Is that suggesting
         | this benefit/effect weaker in a population than the test
         | measures in a individual, or just that March could have been
         | much worse across the world? (for example, was hypothetically
         | Italy having a very low rate of colds at the time?)
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | BoiledCabbage wrote:
           | > If I'm reading that chart right, it is the percentage of
           | sicknesses caused by each virus type, not the rate of
           | sickness in the population. So we don't have information in
           | this chart on the absolute prevalence. The change in relative
           | rates may suggest which measures are relatively more
           | effective on different viruses, but doesn't help us analyze
           | the effectiveness of the current narrative.
           | 
           | That's exactly correct, and instead the poster is
           | continuously misinterpreting a rate as a fixed quantity.
        
             | postalrat wrote:
             | If that's exactly correct why doesn't it always add up to
             | 100%?
        
             | timr wrote:
             | > the poster is continuously misinterpreting a rate as a
             | fixed quantity.
             | 
             | I am not. It is a measurement of the percentage of samples
             | in a surveillance network, positive for each pathogen. Here
             | is the methods paper:
             | 
             | https://publichealth.jmir.org/2018/3/e59/
             | 
             | Here is the relevant section:
             | 
             | > To calculate the pathogen detection rate (as displayed in
             | Figure 2 [second data view] and on the Trend website), we
             | compute the rate for each organism at each institution as a
             | centered 3-week moving average. To adjust for the capacity
             | differences between sites, a national aggregate is
             | calculated as the unweighted average of individual site
             | rates. Only data from sites contributing more than 30 tests
             | per week is included to avoid noise from small numbers of
             | tests. Because the calculation of pathogen detection rate
             | includes results from patients with multiple detections,
             | the detection rate for all organisms can, in theory, add up
             | to greater than one. In practice, this does not occur.
             | 
             | The data says exactly what I described: influenza
             | prevalence has declined to nearly zero. Rhinovirus has
             | continued to circulate at normal levels.
        
               | BoiledCabbage wrote:
               | I think this will be my final reply on this topic. I
               | appreciate you posting links to support your view, but I
               | don't believe you're taking time to reflect on what I'm
               | saying.
               | 
               | > The fact that rhinovirus continues to circulate so
               | widely
               | 
               | This statement cannot be made from the link you posted.
               | This is a rate. A frequency rate among sampled data.
               | However it does not track the _number_ of samples
               | occurring. No amount of averaging can cover that. As a
               | result, a person cannot make a conclusion to support the
               | above statement on frequency of circulation of
               | rhinovirus.
               | 
               | > Rhinovirus has continued to circulate at normal levels.
               | 
               | This statement is _not_ supported by the data you list.
               | The description you provide above even supports my
               | argument. They are adjusting for capacity differences,
               | but are still reporting a rate.
               | 
               | This is the key statement they make supporting my point:
               | 
               | > To adjust for the capacity differences between sites, a
               | national aggregate is calculated as the unweighted
               | average of individual site rates.
               | 
               | They are averaging _rates_ of infection. You _cannot_ use
               | that to make the statement that you 're making that
               | "Rhinovirus has continued to circulate at normal levels."
               | 
               | This is all very well understood stats. The only thing I
               | can suggest at this point is to do some background
               | reading on statistics, sampling and statistical
               | inference.
               | 
               | I'm trying to both be cordial about it, as you have been
               | cordial in your tone and appear to have an earnest
               | interest in this topic - but also trying to make clear
               | that you are unintentionally spreading false information.
               | 
               | You are doing something that statistics 101 makes clear
               | is invalid to do. I'm not certain how else to put it. My
               | only request is that you refrain from repeatedly posting.
               | It is incorrect information, and it turns out it isn't
               | just an invalid conclusion, it's actually the opposite of
               | what is occurring.
               | 
               | Keep the enthusiasm, but just understand the math/stats a
               | bit more.
        
               | timr wrote:
               | > This statement cannot be made from the link you posted.
               | This is a rate. A frequency rate among sampled data.
               | However it does not track the number of samples
               | occurring.
               | 
               | It does. Click the link [1]. Figure 2 [2] _shows the
               | number of samples_. They explain it clearly:
               | 
               | > The FilmArray RP test utilization rate (TUR) metric is
               | defined as the non-normalized number of RP patient test
               | results generated each week across the Trend sites
               | (computed as a centered 3-week moving average).
               | 
               | "Non-normalized number of RP patient test results" =>
               | count of samples
               | 
               | > To calculate the pathogen detection rate (as displayed
               | in Figure 2 [second data view] and on the Trend website),
               | we compute the rate for each organism at each institution
               | as a centered 3-week moving average
               | 
               | They calculate positive rates for each pathogen, using
               | the the number of samples as the denominator.
               | 
               | > They are averaging rates of infection.
               | 
               | They are not. They are computing an unweighted average
               | rate across sites. Look at figure 2. Read the text again.
               | 
               | This surveillance data is showing you that _the rate of
               | samples positive for rhinovirus in their network_ is
               | ~unchanged. The rate of influenza has disproportionately
               | declined. There is nothing wrong with the data.
               | 
               | > Keep the enthusiasm, but just understand the math/stats
               | a bit more.
               | 
               | Thanks for the advice.
               | 
               | [1] https://publichealth.jmir.org/2018/3/e59/
               | 
               | [2] https://publichealth.jmir.org/2018/3/e59/#figure2
        
         | WhompingWindows wrote:
         | You haven't mentioned social behavioral change in your
         | speculation about the decimated 2020-2021 flu season. I'd wager
         | that has a very large part in why the flu hasn't spread:
         | everyone is socially distanced, remote, masked, extra hygienic,
         | and extra aware of illness.
        
           | timr wrote:
           | I didn't mention it because it's not addressed by this
           | article, which is specifically about competitive inhibition.
           | 
           | That said, if you're going to claim that all of these things
           | we have done have _eliminated_ the flu, you should take at
           | least a few moments to reflect on the fact that they have
           | done ~nothing to rhinovirus.
        
             | BoiledCabbage wrote:
             | > That said, if you're going to claim that all of these
             | things we have done have eliminated the flu, you should
             | take at least a few moments to reflect on the fact that
             | they have done ~nothing to rhinovirus.
             | 
             | Why do you keep saying these measures have done nothing to
             | rhinovirus?
             | 
             | The link you've shared does _not_ support that. It shows
             | _relative_ percentages - and you 're confusing that for
             | absolute infection counts.
             | 
             | Unless you also believe that 60% of the population has a
             | stomach virus on a daily basis (data from their other
             | chart).
        
               | timr wrote:
               | > Why do you keep saying these measures have done nothing
               | to rhinovirus?
               | 
               | Because they haven't.
               | 
               | > The link you've shared does not support that. It shows
               | relative percentages - and you're confusing that for
               | absolute infection counts.
               | 
               | I am not confusing it. It shows you the percentage of
               | samples they test that come up positive for rhinovirus
               | (and other things. They test for all of the things
               | listed, in parallel.)
               | 
               | Influenza A & B, RSV, and some other viruses have been
               | virtually eliminated across their sampled population.
               | _The rate has dropped to zero._ Rhinovirus has not -- the
               | rate of detection is unchanged.
        
               | BoiledCabbage wrote:
               | Again, you're confusing percentages.
               | 
               | To use some simplified numbers to explain it - consider
               | that normally 100,000 people are infected with some form
               | of respiratory virus on a daily, basis and 20% of those
               | are rhinoviruses, then that means there are 20,000 daily
               | rhinovirus infections. And let's also say that strains of
               | influenza are another 20% and 20,000/day.
               | 
               | Now what is happening, is in a covid world, due to masks
               | and distancing, the number of people infected on a daily
               | basis drops from 100,000 to 10,000. Rhinoviruses are sill
               | 20% of that, but they are now down to 2,000. Masks and
               | social distancing has had a drastic affect on them.
               | 
               | Influenza drops down to only 2% so only 200 cases daily.
               | Masks and distancing have an even more drastic effect in
               | influenza.
               | 
               | As a result, we're seeing exactly the graph you've
               | linked.
               | 
               | Rhinovirus is 20% rate, but of a much smaller pie. And
               | you're mistaking that as masks and distancing having
               | little or no effect.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | timr wrote:
               | I am not "confusing percentages". You (now) agree with me
               | on what the data says, you just don't like how it fits in
               | with your theory.
               | 
               | > Now what is happening, is in a covid world, due to
               | masks and distancing, the number of people infected on a
               | daily basis drops from 100,000 to 10,000. Rhinoviruses
               | are sill 20% of that, but they are now down to
               | 2,000....Influenza drops down to only 2% so only 200
               | cases daily. Masks and distancing have an even more
               | drastic effect in influenza.
               | 
               | Yes, I understand your hypothesis: masks make influenza
               | go down to almost 0, but somehow rhinovirus ends up at
               | _exactly the same percentage_ as it was before. In other
               | words: masks work exceptionally well for flu, don 't work
               | at all for rhinovirus.
               | 
               | This is a theory. It is...implausible...but if you want
               | to believe it explains the patterns in the data, you're
               | certainly welcome to do so.
        
             | codeulike wrote:
             | Flu has an R0 of about 1.3, Rhinovirus has an R0 of around
             | 2.7, and Covid is estimated to have an R0 of 2.7 or higher.
             | So it makes sense that the measures we have taken have
             | stopped the flu but not stopped covid or rhinovirus.
             | 
             | Sources: https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-
             | the-seasonal-... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti
             | cle/pii/S246804271...
             | https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1891
        
               | timr wrote:
               | You are leaning _way_ too hard on point estimates of R0.
               | The way people estimate R0 is noisy, and the error bars
               | on these estimates are significant. It 's fairly
               | pointless to take any two papers and compare the values
               | as if they're precise.
               | 
               | This literature review has estimates of R0 for flu
               | running from 1.06-3.4, and rhinovirus running from
               | 1.2-1.83:
               | 
               | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.200204
               | 04v...
               | 
               | Given the uncertainties involved, these ranges are
               | effectively identical, with flu maybe being a bit _more_
               | contagious.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | codeulike wrote:
               | OK I've got a better idea:
               | 
               | In the particular conditions we created in 2020, the
               | Rhinovirus was better able to spread than the Flu. Why?
               | 
               | Because people were on the lookout for fever (and other
               | things like continuous cough etc). Flu causes fever, and
               | anyone who got a fever and was sensibly-minded would self
               | isolate at least for a few days until they got test
               | results or until symptoms abated. Whereas Rhinovirus is
               | much less likely to cause a fever, so people twig that
               | they've 'just got a cold' and carry on going about their
               | day.
               | 
               | Especially for schoolkids - if they've got a fever,
               | they're kept at home. If they've just got a snotty nose
               | then they're likely to still go to school.
               | 
               | So Rhiniovirus was able to fly under the radar whereas
               | Flu wasn't.
        
               | timr wrote:
               | Could be. Covid is certainly more flu-like than
               | rhinovirus-like. Kids were also not in school, and kids
               | are historically a big spreader of influenza.
               | 
               | I generally think people look for "fancy" explanations
               | for the trends, when simpler explanations (i.e. people
               | weren't going to the doctor) work just as well.
        
           | goatinaboat wrote:
           | _everyone is socially distanced, remote, masked, extra
           | hygienic, and extra aware of illness._
           | 
           | Flu has been eradicated by lockdown, but lockdown must
           | continue because COVID has not. That appears to be the policy
           | right now.
        
         | learnstats2 wrote:
         | > doesn't explain the complete suppression of influenza
         | 
         | Influenza isn't infective enough to spread during the summer
         | months anyway (i.e. it is completely suppressed), unlike
         | rhinoviruses, so it's easily most plausible that a few
         | additional hygiene measures have suppressed influenza further.
        
           | timr wrote:
           | The data I linked to covers the winter -- the same "hygiene
           | measures" were in place in the winter, and clearly affecting
           | both viruses differently.
           | 
           | If you're saying that rhinoviruses are _more_ contagious than
           | the flu because they 're less seasonal...there's really no
           | evidence to support that. They're more-or-less the same [1].
           | It's possible that influenza is more sensitive to heat,
           | light, etc.
           | 
           | My point is, the story isn't likely to be simple or
           | reductionist.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.200204
           | 04v...
        
             | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
             | This covers the bases. There isn't a huge mystery here,
             | although there are some unknowns that need more research.
             | 
             | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3
             | 
             | R0 rates are just an indicative estimates. They don't
             | account for different modes or vectors of transmission.
             | 
             | So it's not a given that mask wearing, social distancing,
             | temperature, UV, humidity, and hand washing would
             | _necessarily_ all have identical effects on Covid, flu, and
             | the various virus families that cause colds.
        
               | timr wrote:
               | That Nature story is a great example of the speculation I
               | was talking about in my first post: a sample of
               | "experts", chosen by reporters, repeating opinions.
               | 
               | There's a pretty decent coverage of the level of
               | uncertainty involved, but the reporter _still_ can 't
               | resist the urge of "crafting a narrative" that bypasses
               | the uncertainty. For example:
               | 
               | > In May...when some of the strictest lockdowns were in
               | place, health workers noted an abrupt and early halt to
               | the 2019-20 flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. That
               | might partly have been an artefact caused by fewer people
               | coming to a clinic for testing, experts say, but it was
               | also attributable to the effectiveness of policies such
               | as social distancing.
               | 
               | Pretty definitive statement, there. _But not even two
               | paragraphs later:_
               | 
               | > "Some South American countries haven't done such a good
               | job controlling COVID, but even there flu is low," says
               | virologist Richard Webby at St Jude's hospital in
               | Memphis, Tennessee. "I don't think we can put it all down
               | to mask wearing and social distancing." He suspects that
               | the dearth of international travel played a part.
               | 
               | So...yeah. We don't know the answer. The article makes it
               | sound like we do. The headline and photo captions
               | _really_ makes it sound like we know.
               | 
               | Reporters are constantly putting their thumb on the scale
               | by crafting editorially convenient narratives. Richard
               | Webby's opinion doesn't properly emphasize the impact of
               | of social distancing? Bury it under a vaguely definitive-
               | sounding lede, and quote some other "expert" who does
               | agree.
               | 
               | </rant>
        
         | nitrogen wrote:
         | _question the dominant narrative concerning masks and
         | respiratory viruses_
         | 
         | My limited understanding of that narrative is that
         | COVID19/SARS-CoV-2 needs larger droplets to spread, and thus
         | common masks help. But other viruses may be able to spread
         | further as aerosols and last longer on surfaces, thus
         | common/non-fine-particulate-filtering masks may not help.
        
       | Causality1 wrote:
       | Why is so much in this article contradictory? It opens by saying
       | viruses allow or inhibit other viruses by way of differing
       | methods of entering cells but only a few paragraphs later says
       | the difference is entirely due to triggering an immune response.
       | 
       |  _Further experiments showed rhinovirus was triggering an immune
       | response inside the infected cells, which blocked the ability of
       | Sars-CoV-2 to make copies of itself._
       | 
       | What? What defenses do cells have after already being infected
       | with viral RNA?
       | 
       |  _" We could see surges in flu. We could see surges in other
       | respiratory viruses and other respiratory pathogens," she said,_
       | 
       | Why? Why does covid mean we're going to see unusual winter surges
       | in non-covid diseases?
        
         | hfktk4nrn wrote:
         | Cells have ways to detect non-self RNA and react to it, like
         | stopping protein expression and releasing alarm chemicals to
         | call in immune system cells. Viruses of course try to block
         | these cell defenses.
         | 
         | This is actually a big problem for mRNA vaccines, which are
         | also foreign RNAs, and to overcome it for example
         | Pfizer/Moderna use unnatural RNA bases, among other things, to
         | bypass these detection mechanisms.
         | 
         | It's not exactly clear how cells can distinguish self/non-self
         | RNA, some markers are known, like different RNA cappings,
         | different letter frequencies, some chemical modifications.
        
       | dukeofdoom wrote:
       | I always wondered why religious pilgrimages and retreats where so
       | common back in the history. The motivation is often some sort of
       | healing. Sunshine, Mountain or Forest air is described in
       | literature as things to seek when sick. Just curious if for
       | example molds found in forest air, might play a similar function.
       | Or perhaps being in close contact being exposed to bacteria from
       | other people. Or if viruses can swap genetic code, is there some
       | pathway through which our immune system can import antibodies or
       | genetic information from other people we are in contact with
       | through pheromones to boost its own defences. Perhaps its the
       | drinking of water from new sources along the journey that has
       | benefits. Why does fiji water taste so much better than other
       | waters.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | Exposure to forests improves mood. Mood affects outcomes. It's
         | a question of whether the exertion of going somewhere healthier
         | is great enough to kill you (and if anyone attributes your
         | death to the attempt, which I don't think we always did).
         | 
         | Also post-industrial Europe and especially London had awful,
         | awful air quality. I'll bet if you look at the 'seasons' for
         | going to Bath, for instance, that they overlapped with the
         | worst weather for creating smog in London.
        
       | swader999 wrote:
       | This seems to support easing the lockdown approach once vaccines
       | are widely deployed.
        
         | autokad wrote:
         | or even if the lockdown approach is good at all, given how well
         | it has not worked.
        
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