[HN Gopher] Factoring 2048 RSA integers in 177 days with 13436 q...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Factoring 2048 RSA integers in 177 days with 13436 qubits and a
       multimode memory
        
       Author : athul7744
       Score  : 220 points
       Date   : 2021-03-23 12:08 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | tbabej wrote:
       | This paper basically explores a hypothetical scenario where
       | scaling quantum memory ends up being cheaper than scaling
       | computational qubits. The title (or abstract) unfortunately does
       | not mention the quantum memory requirements at n=2048 explicitly.
       | 
       | For factoring 2048 RSA integers, the technique proposed in the
       | paper would require ~430 million memory qubits (see the table at
       | top of page 16).
        
         | Strilanc wrote:
         | It's an interesting question whether, over the long term,
         | quantum hardware will match the feature of classical hardware
         | where memory is significantly cheaper than compute-capable bits
         | in the CPU. Hard drives are 100x cheaper per bit than RAM which
         | is 100x cheaper (I think?) per bit than a CPU register.
         | 
         | How expensive is quantum memory relative to quantum compute,
         | over the long term? Expectations about the answer to this
         | question strongly affect whether or not you find this paper
         | relevant. And the answer depends on the pieces you build your
         | quantum computer out of, e.g. hypothetical photonic
         | architectures have a bigger ratio than hypothetical
         | superconducting qubit architectures.
         | 
         | It is currently very much an open question whether or not
         | quantum computers will have a memory hierarchy.
        
           | thesz wrote:
           | You are off by orders of magnitude. The difference in memory
           | density between DRAM and SRAM (register file) is not 100
           | times, more like 10x. Standalone "registers" - memory
           | elements of pipelines, state machines etc, - are again not
           | more than ten times less denser than SRAM.
           | 
           | After DRAM goes SSD and after SSD goes disk. The difference
           | in price per GB for SSD and disk is about four (4x) times, I
           | looked for that numbers recently. The difference between tape
           | and disk is, again, about 4-10 times (from memory).
        
             | Strilanc wrote:
             | Are you sure? I was just going off a quick search of
             | Amazon, where 1 GB of ram cost ~30$, 1 TB of disk cost
             | ~50$, and a CPU with ~1MB of L2 cache cost ~200$. Based on
             | that I actually thought 100x was a comfortable
             | underestimate, not an overestimate.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EDRAM
               | 
               | If the price/density difference was anywhere near that
               | much you'd see a lot more chips with fat onboard DRAM
               | caches.
        
               | dcow wrote:
               | CPU cost is not dominated by the cache size is the
               | problem, I think.
        
               | robocat wrote:
               | But I think that cache is roughly 50% of marginal
               | production cost of the silicon chip die by mm2.
               | 
               | https://cdn.wccftech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/AMD-
               | Ryze...
               | 
               | https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16214/Zen3_arch_19.jpg
        
               | thesz wrote:
               | Cache is not memory, it is more complex - LRU and all
               | that, often with several access ports (quadratic space
               | dependence). SRAM is memory that is on-die and it is much
               | cheaper.
        
         | bunnie wrote:
         | I'm trying to make sense of the 'memory qubits' e.g. 'spatial
         | modes' in the paper. Do you know if they are they a sort
         | of...quantum flip flop?
         | 
         | Is this also a hypothetical structure, or have they been built
         | and shown to be able to reliably store and retrieve quantum
         | state in such spatial modes? 430 million is a much, much larger
         | number than their headline 13436 qubits...
        
         | MichaelMoser123 wrote:
         | interesting qeustions that is not related to the feasibility of
         | this idea: would this news item cause some more fluctuations in
         | the rate of digital currencies?
        
           | IncRnd wrote:
           | The results of this could, however this is simply theoretical
           | at the current time.
        
         | oldgradstudent wrote:
         | So magic computer could be more effective with more magic
         | memory than with more magic processing power, right?
        
           | bdamm wrote:
           | Quantum computers exist today, they're just very low power,
           | low gate counts, and extremely expensive. Don't discount it
           | as magic just because of the claims. Scaling up QC would be
           | like bringing mathematics to Mesopotamia. But it isn't
           | "magic", it's physics.
        
             | rnestler wrote:
             | > they're just very low power,
             | 
             | I guess you meant to write high power as in high electrical
             | power consumption? Or low power in the sense of low
             | processing power? Anyway: Performance per Watt is probably
             | pretty bad for current quantum computers ;)
        
               | RIMR wrote:
               | "Processing power" is colloquially the term most people I
               | know use to describe computers of varying capabilities.
        
             | gallerdude wrote:
             | ...would be like bringing mathematics to Mesopotamia.
             | 
             | Can you expound on this? What sort of breakthroughs are
             | bottlenecked by developments in quantum computing?
        
               | Craighead wrote:
               | Temperature
        
               | _hl_ wrote:
               | The hope is that quantum computers will give us an
               | exponential speed up on some problems, which could
               | (again, hopefully) allow us to solve some NP hard
               | problems. This can be extremely useful for scientific
               | computing (e.g. protein folding) and engineering, where
               | computers have to solve complex NP-hard optimisation
               | problems.
               | 
               | It could also be possible to use the technology developed
               | for the precise control and measurement of qubits to
               | "rebuild" natural phenomena like the interaction of
               | chemical molecules, something which is currently
               | extremely hard to simulate.
        
               | syrrim wrote:
               | >which will allow us to solve some NP hard problems
               | 
               | No it won't
        
               | bollu wrote:
               | > No it won't
               | 
               | We don't know either way. relationship between BPP, BQP,
               | P, NP are all open.
        
               | f6v wrote:
               | Could you elaborate?
        
             | fractionalhare wrote:
             | The research in this field proceeds under the umbrella and
             | framework of physics, yes. But it's not clear that it's
             | possible to scale up to the number qubits required do
             | anything nontrivial. It's plausible there are hard
             | engineering limits on error correction which make it
             | asymptotically more difficult with each order of magnitude
             | more qubits involved.
             | 
             | It might not look that way because there's a lot of
             | (relatively) mainstream investment in quantum computing.
             | However it's pretty common for speculative physics research
             | to be pursued for years without ever coming to fruition.
             | Especially when there are promising early results before
             | it's shown that scaling the work reduces to an intractable
             | problem.
        
               | mikewave wrote:
               | Admittedly, it's not a gate-model system, but at D-Wave
               | we've been able to scale up to 5,000+ qubits now, and the
               | future is promising for further advancements in qubit
               | count, noise, and other advanced features.
               | 
               | The gate-model systems have shown that they are pursuing
               | a much more difficult path, one that may indeed be
               | fruitless for years or decades before they can approach
               | our raw qubit count. We also have examples of nontrivial,
               | paying-customer use cases that become more compelling
               | with each new announcement. Factoring integers is indeed
               | an interesting hard problem which would have a massive
               | (negative?) impact on the world if realized, but besides
               | Shor's and Grover's algorithms, it's not like gate-model
               | QPUs have a ton of use cases significantly better than
               | what a quantum annealer can accomplish.
               | 
               | I like to think of it this way: we're basically at the
               | point of an ENIAC scale machine, if you liken quantum
               | computing progress to classical computing. Fills up a
               | room, very specific environmental and power requirements,
               | little or no "memory" to speak of, esoteric and hard for
               | anyone without years of training to master. Only a few
               | decades later, the state of the art machine was thousands
               | of times more capable, far cheaper and smaller, more
               | reliable, more accessible in every way. Imagine
               | describing the Internet as we use it today to an ENIAC
               | operator, or a speculative investor considering IBM,
               | Honeywell, etc. - it would sound like an impossible,
               | Asimovesque dream, not something that children would
               | literally be playing with sixty years later.
               | 
               | The only difference is that so far, we don't really seem
               | to have a real exponential Moore's Law effect in quantum
               | computing. Google et al. still have very low numbers of
               | qubits without any real promise that they'll be able to
               | deliver more of them in any consistent timeframe. At
               | D-Wave we've done better on the scaling front, and we've
               | been trying to keep up to our former founder's "Rose's
               | Law" of qubit scale growth, but fabrication is an
               | incredibly expensive, complicated, competitive endeavour
               | that necessitates incredible quality control in order to
               | produce processors that are up to spec. There are also
               | other factors beyond the raw qubit count; the bigger
               | advantage in our latest Advantage chip may actually be
               | the higher connectivity between qubits on the graph,
               | rather than their raw number.
               | 
               | Of course, we expect that we'll continue to push the
               | envelope in this regard, and given enough time and
               | investment, some of the early applications we're seeing
               | now may well eventually be integrated into large scale
               | products people use every day.
        
               | reikonomusha wrote:
               | I think it's reasonable to be more optimistic than you
               | put it. Qubit counts and qubit fidelity have been
               | increasing at a remarkable rate. Just five years ago we
               | could barely eek out a handful of qubits, and when we
               | did, they'd be bad. Google's quantum supremacy result is
               | a testament to that. (At this stage, whether they
               | actually demonstrated the "supreme" part of supremacy is,
               | imho, irrelevant. They've demonstrated a much larger,
               | controllable, programmable quantum computer and measured
               | its quality characteristics accurately.)
               | 
               | Of course, I'm saying it's reasonable to be more
               | optimistic, not that we have a proof we will certainly be
               | able to scale to enormous machine sizes. But it's
               | definitely more than "speculative physics": real machines
               | have been built and demonstrated to exhibit truly
               | measurable quantum effects that allow for programmable
               | computation.
               | 
               | (To be sure, there is hype, there is a lot of cash
               | sloshing around, and there are totally bogus claims some
               | companies are publicly making.)
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | oldgradstudent wrote:
               | > They've demonstrated a much larger, controllable,
               | programmable quantum computer
               | 
               | No they didn't. Not in any meaningful sense.
               | 
               | How exactly what that machine does can be called a
               | "computation"? in what sense is it "programmable"?
        
               | klodolph wrote:
               | I thought the Quantum threshold theorem said that it was
               | possible to scale up quantum computers as much as you
               | like? Or am I misinterpreting it?
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_threshold_theorem
        
             | jMyles wrote:
             | > would be like bringing mathematics to Mesopotamia
             | 
             | I don't think I understand this metaphor.
        
             | azatris wrote:
             | I do not know much about quantum computing. But could you
             | explain what makes these computers quantum? Is it the
             | configuration of these transistors to invoke some quantum
             | phenomena?
        
               | freeone3000 wrote:
               | They're built off fundamentally different basic units.
               | Contemporary computers use transistors, which occupy
               | traditional physics and do logic with voltage thresholds.
               | Quantum computers use a quantum phenomenon -- one easy-
               | to-understand (and fairly easy to construct) quantum
               | computer substrate uses the spin of electrons in
               | superconducting loops. Electron spin is a quantum
               | phenomenon, in that the spin isn't deterministically
               | positive or negative, it's a probability distribution --
               | initially, equally likely to be positive or negative, but
               | you can't tell what it is until you actually read it.
               | It's not 0.0, it's either -0.5 or 0.5, both with a 50%
               | chance. Equally importantly, you can perform (physical)
               | operations on electrons singly or in pairs in order to
               | manipulate these probabilities. Quantum computing is
               | turning these probability fields and operations into
               | useful computational results.
        
               | DarmokJalad1701 wrote:
               | Here is a long-ish video that explains quantum computers
               | without using pop-science hand-wavy terminology
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_Riqjdh2oM
        
               | antepodius wrote:
               | In a classical computer, every bit of information in the
               | system is in a definite state- 1 or 0. In a quantum
               | system with such definite possible states, what you
               | actually have most of the time of the system in some
               | interpolation of the possible states- so in the quantum
               | computer case each bit is usually in a state a _1 + b_ 0,
               | where a and b are complex numbers such that |a^2|+|b^2| =
               | 1.
               | 
               | Most of the time, the 'weight' flows back and forth
               | between a and b according to certain equations over time.
               | When you measure the system- that is, when the bit
               | interacts with the outside world, hopefully your
               | measuring apparatus- you see a 1 or a 0, with
               | probabilities |a^2| and |b^2| respectively.
               | 
               | So what you can do is get a whole bunch of these quantum
               | bits- qubits together, and set things up so that the
               | time-evolution of their quantum state is correlated and
               | probabilistically moves towards something you're
               | interested in. Say you can set things up so the bit
               | array- which, at first, will give you a mere perfectly
               | random bit string on measurement- becomes more and more
               | likely to give you, say, a prime factor, or the answer to
               | some other question.
               | 
               | So yes, the quantum phenomenon is that the bits of the
               | computer are quantum objects as opposed to classical.
        
               | ledauphin wrote:
               | this is the most comprehensible entry-level description
               | of quantum computers I've ever read. thank you.
               | 
               | (qubits I've seen explained many times, but setting
               | things up so that qubits are probabilistically correlated
               | is the part I've never understood anyone else to be
               | saying)
        
               | _hl_ wrote:
               | A quantum computer is defined as a machine that can
               | implement an arbitrary "unitary evolution" (up to
               | arbitrary precision). If you don't know enough math to
               | understand what a unitary evolution is, think of it as a
               | quantum computer doing basically any possible thing that
               | you can do with a given number of qubits. As another
               | comment said, the idea is to (ab)use this to do some
               | operations on qubits such that they end up in a state
               | where measuring it will give you an answer to something
               | you're interested in. It has very little to do with
               | classical programming.
               | 
               | The math on quantum computers checks out, it's "just" an
               | engineering challenge at this point, and many are
               | doubtful whether these challenges will ever be overcome
               | to build a quantum computer of sufficient complexity.
               | 
               | Essentially, some "unitary evolutions" are complex to
               | implement, as in requiring a lot of quantum "gates". This
               | causes an accumulation of error and a whole lot of other
               | problems, which limits the complexity of the calculations
               | that can currently be performed.
        
           | TheRealPomax wrote:
           | You know that qubit processors already exist, right? This is
           | like going "yeah right, we can factor large primes if we had
           | a 4.2GHz processor. So, magical processing power, right?" in
           | the 386 era.
           | 
           | We may not have 13k qubit systems today, but we _do_ have
           | qubit systems already. Expecting us to get better at them is
           | pretty reasonable.
        
             | YZF wrote:
             | Not sure it is reasonable.
             | 
             | Quantum systems don't scale that way. In order to get the
             | quantum speedup you need to be able to maintain the larger
             | quantum state which gets a lot harder the larger these
             | systems get.
             | 
             | This is like saying we already have 7nm process today for
             | silicon so expecting us to get better, like 1nm, 10
             | angstrom... or we have a plane that goes 2000 miles per
             | hour, expecting 10kmph, 100kmph, 2000kmph... physics
             | doesn't work like that.
        
       | ThePhysicist wrote:
       | The authors hide the fact that this would require millions of
       | memory qubits (which need to be as accurate as the normal
       | qubits), so the title is a bit misleading IMHO.
        
       | isolli wrote:
       | Side question: if quantum computers fulfill their promise, won't
       | they break encryption as we know it? Are we ready for that kind
       | of upheaval?
        
         | BelenusMordred wrote:
         | > Are we ready for that kind of upheaval?
         | 
         | Quite sure cryptographers are ahead of the curve, they are a
         | conservative bunch. There's multiple finalists in the NIST
         | post-quantum comp with different quantum-hard mathematical
         | properties. An over-abundance of lattice cryptography being
         | standardised could possibly be a problem in the long term
         | though.
         | 
         | Asymmetric public key crypto and signatures being broken is the
         | only real threat, there's no theoretical issues with symmetric
         | crypto, hashing or MAC's.
         | 
         | A quantum break already has a multi-billion dollar bounty on it
         | in the form of cryptocurrency wallets which would be hard to
         | fight against in the form of wages or violent coercion. This is
         | probably the best evidence on Earth that no one actually has
         | this capability.
        
           | gfody wrote:
           | this mightve been a cracked wallet
           | https://cointelegraph.com/news/did-satoshi-just-move-his-
           | coi...
        
           | isolli wrote:
           | Thanks. I don't understand your last paragraph. Can you
           | provide a bit more context? Just a starting point for an
           | Internet search :)
        
             | benlivengood wrote:
             | The bitcoin ledger is a bit of a special case. Coins in a
             | transaction are sent to output addresses identified by a
             | signature which is usually a combination of SHA-256 and
             | RIPEMD-160 hashes of a public key signature. Using coins as
             | an input to a transaction (spending them) requires exposing
             | the public ECDSA key used to originally create the
             | signature.
             | 
             | If a particular address has never sent coins then an
             | attacker has to perform a pre-image attack against SHA-256
             | and RIPEMD-160 which even for quantum computers would be
             | 2^128 operations (generally believed to be intractable) and
             | wouldn't even require breaking ECDSA.
             | 
             | Since most original coins have never been sent anywhere
             | there isn't a way to directly attack their ECDSA keypairs.
             | 
             | There are, however, plenty of addresses holding (a lot of)
             | coins whose public keys are in the blockchain, making them
             | targets for quantum computing attacks. An attacker could
             | solve the discrete logarithm problem for a key and forge a
             | signature in a transaction sending all the coins owned by
             | the matching signature to a new address owned by the
             | attacker and the transaction would be accepted by everyone.
        
             | gfody wrote:
             | blockchain ledgers are open and public and you could think
             | of the contents of any wallet as a bounty for cracking that
             | wallet's private key. some of the wallets involved in early
             | bitcoin transactions would make perfect targets - they
             | havent moved in years and are presumed lost. the btc in
             | them is worth billions.
        
             | lallysingh wrote:
             | I think they're saying that we know nobody's using quantum
             | computing to break crypto yet, because nobody's been
             | draining bitcoin wallets.
        
               | Gene_Parmesan wrote:
               | Maybe, but if a state actor has achieved this ability, I
               | doubt they would make its existence public knowledge by
               | stealing a few billion US$ in btc. That's chump change
               | compared to the value of being able to surreptitiously
               | crack the cryptographically secure messages of everybody
               | in the world.
               | 
               | Note I'm not saying that I actually think someone has
               | achieved this, I just don't think "no one is stealing
               | btc" is a good non-existence test.
        
               | BelenusMordred wrote:
               | Pretty much, it's not just bitcoin either, basically
               | every cryptocurrency wallet is based on elliptical curve
               | cryptography and any that have been used publicly are
               | vulnerable to anyone on Earth having enough coherent
               | qubits at their disposal to crunch the numbers in order
               | to steal it.
        
           | marius_k wrote:
           | I think Grover's algorithm could be used to find hashes with
           | quadratic speedup. But that should not be an issue as
           | quadratic slowdown could be achieved by doubling the problem
           | size.
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | Yes and kinda yes.
         | 
         | There's a standardization process going on for post quantum
         | cryptography at the US NIST. Results expected before the
         | almighty RSA-breaking quantum computer arrives.
         | 
         | There's still a concern about store-and-encrypt-later (i.e.
         | someone can store encrypted communication today and decrypt it
         | once a QC is available), and how relevant that is depends on
         | some unknowns (how many years to you expect your comms to be
         | secret? how many years till a usable QC is available?).
        
           | KMag wrote:
           | Note, for instance, that Google ran an experiment where
           | Chrome connecting to Google hosts used both conventional
           | elliptic curve Diffie-Hellman over Curve25519 and post-
           | quantum "New Hope" RLWE. A hash of the results of the two key
           | agreements was used for ChaCha20 encryption of the keystream.
           | A store-and-decrypt attack in this case should be required to
           | break both conventional Curve25519 and experimental New Hope.
           | 
           | Note that the best known quantum attacks on ChaCha20 cut the
           | key size in half, so 256-bit ChaCha20 should still be fine,
           | as long as your key agreement protocol is quantum-resistant.
        
       | jakozaur wrote:
       | One day you can start calculating private keys based on public
       | keys.
       | 
       | This is the biggest crypto puzzle: find private key of Sathoshi
       | Bitcoin wallet with 1 mln bitcoins. Over $50 Bln prize for one
       | crypto puzzle.
       | 
       | This would be AlphaGo moment of quantum computing if you could
       | make that one attack successful even while paying huge price
       | (e.g. years of quantum datacenter work).
        
         | alacombe wrote:
         | ECC is totally different than RSA principles discussed here.
        
         | gautamcgoel wrote:
         | I thought bitcoin was based off EC crypto, not RSA.
        
           | SAI_Peregrinus wrote:
           | EC crypto is just as vulnerable to Shor's algorithm as RSA
           | is.
        
         | unilynx wrote:
         | Cashing out and actually getting $50B may be as much of a
         | challenge as finding the private key
        
           | Invictus0 wrote:
           | Hypothetically, you could publicly announce that you'll sell
           | the stash at the rate of 1% per year, to demonstrate faith in
           | the continued growth of bitcoin in order to finance
           | <humanitarian project> and reassure the market that it won't
           | massively crash.
        
             | renata wrote:
             | And you could even sign the announcement with one of
             | Satoshi's wallet keys.
        
           | umvi wrote:
           | Why, do people actively monitor that wallet for activity? I'm
           | assuming if any BTC at all moves out of that wallet it'll
           | cause a massive correction to BTC price as people can no
           | longer assume that those bitcoins are off the market.
        
             | vbezhenar wrote:
             | I'm sure that enough geeks have all kinds of triggers to
             | spot that kind of activity.
        
         | jsmith99 wrote:
         | Assuming nothing has been spent previously from the wallet, you
         | would have to break SHA256 before you could even find the
         | public key you needed to factor. Bitcoin addresses are based on
         | hashes of the public key and SHA256 appears quantum resistant.
        
         | X6S1x6Okd1st wrote:
         | IIRC public keys are only revealed on bitcoin once you
         | authorize an out going transaction. There are large bitcoin
         | addresses that have never revealed their corresponding public
         | key such as
         | https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/37XuVSEpWW4trkfmvWzeg...
         | 
         | As long as you never reuse an address bitcoin would continue to
         | be resistant to quantum attacks even if you can factor private
         | keys from public keys, you still need to invert a hash function
         | to go from address to public key.
        
         | gjm11 wrote:
         | Imagine that you find Satoshi's private key and start trying to
         | sell his million bitcoins.
         | 
         | Approximately one minute after you start this process, someone
         | will figure out that either (1) bitcoins no longer securely
         | belong to anyone or (2) Satoshi thinks selling off all his
         | bitcoin is a good idea.
         | 
         | Approximately two minutes after you start this process, the
         | price of bitcoin will plummet.
         | 
         | Sorry, you will not be taking home $50B today.
        
           | mabbo wrote:
           | You're not thinking big enough.
           | 
           | Anyone can sell bitcoins and make money. But if you have the
           | power to _destroy_ bitcoin, well then you can short the
           | entire bitcoin market and clean up.
           | 
           | Frankly, I would just walk into the door of a large hedge
           | fund and sell them to the key for $5B. They'll do far better
           | than I ever could, and $5B is more money than I can possibly
           | use in my lifetime, while being a tiny cost of business for
           | them.
        
             | m3kw9 wrote:
             | Following the progress of computations, even if there is a
             | whiff of it getting close (1year) away, Bitcoin would have
             | suffered runs based on theory possibly becoming reality
             | alone
        
           | Itsdijital wrote:
           | There is a theory that the key to satishi's wallet is hidden
           | somewhere in the beginning of the blockchain. So it might not
           | be too wild if coins started moving
        
             | generalizations wrote:
             | How could it possibly still be secure, then? Also, I've
             | never heard of that theory and it sounds interesting.
             | Source?
        
       | stirlo wrote:
       | Just to be clear such a machine has not yet been built. This is
       | only a theoretical paper at the moment.
        
         | reagent_finder wrote:
         | Yeah, I was thinking "Waaait, aren't they at <100 qubits
         | still?"
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | elephantum wrote:
         | Do I understand correctly, that largest quantum computer that
         | exists today contains less than 100 qubits?
         | 
         | Also it does not seem that there's an exponential grow in this
         | area: https://www.statista.com/statistics/993634/quantum-
         | computers....
         | 
         | They hit the wall in 2017.
         | 
         | We should be safe for now :)
        
           | CodesInChaos wrote:
           | Those quantum computers can't execute Shor's algorithm, which
           | is required to attack RSA. AFAIK the best relevant factoring
           | result is still 21=3*7 from 2012.
           | 
           | There are claims of bigger factored numbers, but they
           | exploited special cases (e.g. factors differing by only two
           | bits) and have no hope of being extended to attack
           | cryptography.
           | 
           | https://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/59795/largest-
           | int...
           | 
           | A 2019 paper manged to factor 21 on a 16 qubit ibmqx5, but
           | failed to go up to 35:
           | 
           | > the algorithm fails to factor N=35. This is due to the
           | cumulative errors coming from the increasing number of two-
           | qubits gates necessary to implement the more complex MEF
           | needed for this case
           | 
           | https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.00768
        
             | DebtDeflation wrote:
             | >There are claims of bigger factored numbers, but they
             | exploited special cases
             | 
             | Also, my understanding is that almost all of these
             | factorizations utilize a "compiled" version of Shor's
             | algorithm. Meaning that you need to know the factors in
             | advance. So it's essentially "confirming" rather than
             | "finding" the factors.
        
               | CodesInChaos wrote:
               | AFAIK factoring 21 is "compiled" Shor, so even that
               | result simplifies the problem a bit.
               | 
               | According the first link in my post, the numbers bigger
               | than 21 were chosen to have specific mathematical
               | properties and attacked with algorithms even less
               | realistic that compiled Shor.
        
             | graderjs wrote:
             | Jennifer and Peter Shor wrote a limerick that seems
             | relevant:                  If computers that you build are
             | quantum,        Then spies of all factions will want 'em.
             | Our codes will all fail,        And they'll read our email,
             | Till we've crypto that's quantum, and daunt 'em.
             | 
             | And Volker Strassen responded at a conference:
             | To read our E-mail, how mean        of the spies and their
             | quantum machine;        Be comforted though,        they do
             | not yet know        how to factorize twelve or fifteen.
             | 
             | Source: http://www-math.mit.edu/~shor/notapoet.html
        
               | CodesInChaos wrote:
               | > Till we've crypto that's quantum, and daunt 'em.
               | 
               | Luckily there are asymmetric algorithms which are are
               | secure against quantum computers, so we don't have to
               | resort to quantum-key-exchanges.
        
               | _hl_ wrote:
               | "Secure against quantum" doesn't really mean much because
               | too little is known to make that claim confidently. AFAIK
               | the term generally refers to algorithms that don't rely
               | on factoring being hard, but instead make some different
               | hardness assumptions that we currently don't have
               | classical or quantum algorithms for.
        
               | CodesInChaos wrote:
               | For practically all computationally secure crypto we use
               | "secure" for "no known attacks faster than we'd like".
               | QCs just extend the set of efficient algorithms.
        
               | _hl_ wrote:
               | Indeed, but there is a much longer history of people
               | trying and failing to break the schemes, and we have come
               | to understand the hardness assumptions in classical
               | crypto as probably quite reasonable.
        
               | SAI_Peregrinus wrote:
               | There's a similarly long history of people trying and
               | failing to break code-based schemes like Niederreiter and
               | McEliece with binary Goppa codes. Unlike lattice-based
               | schemes they're considered quite secure, but their key
               | sizes are enormous (like, hundreds of KiB to several MiB
               | in size). So they're impractical for embedded security,
               | or any situation where key transfer bandwidth is an issue
               | (IoT, metered data plans, etc).
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | Does IoT need to transfer keys?
               | 
               | When it comes to metered data, a few megabytes to access
               | a new site sounds like normal internet to me. And you
               | could use a trusted proxy/VPN; there are present-day apps
               | that more or less fill that niche already.
        
           | mikewave wrote:
           | The largest production quantum computer that exists today -
           | as in, the largest you personally can get access to - has
           | 5,436 qubits: the D-Wave Advantage system.
           | 
           | Admittedly, it's not a gate-model machine that can run Shor's
           | Algorithm, but it is a quantum computer, and at more than
           | double the number of qubits plus far higher inter-qubit
           | connectivity than our previous D-Wave 2000Q, it definitely
           | demonstrates tremendous progress.
           | 
           | If you have a moment, you can sign up to use it for free at
           | https://cloud.dwavesys.com - we have an online IDE, Jupyter
           | notebook training material and tons of docs, a community
           | forum, and of course some shiny demos that submit problems to
           | the live QPU if you want to try them out.
        
           | DebtDeflation wrote:
           | >largest quantum computer that exists today contains less
           | than 100 qubits
           | 
           | The numbers reported in the press are physical qubits not
           | logical qubits. You need multiple physical qubits + error
           | correction to create a single logical qubit. The main type of
           | error correction used today is something called "surface
           | codes". With this type of error correction it's estimated
           | that MILLIONS of physical qubits will be required to create a
           | SINGLE fully error corrected logical qubit.
           | 
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK538709/
           | 
           | We do not have actual quantum computers today and we don't
           | seem to be much closer to having them than we were a decade
           | ago. What we have are really interesting quantum science
           | experiments that get misrepresented by the press (and a
           | handful of companies with a commercial interest in doing so).
        
           | cameronperot wrote:
           | IBM has 1000 qubits on their roadmap by 2023 [1]. I'm
           | interested to see how that goes, and what we can learn from
           | it about scaling up these systems into the thousands of
           | qubits.
           | 
           | Edit: for anyone interested in learning more about quantum
           | computation, I have a list of resources on my website [2].
           | 
           | [1] https://www.ibm.com/blogs/research/2020/09/ibm-quantum-
           | roadm...
           | 
           | [2] https://cameronperot.com/resources/#quantum-physics
        
             | akvadrako wrote:
             | Since I didn't see it mentioned, I assume those are 1000
             | noisy qubits, so they'll require error correction. I wonder
             | how many ideal qubits they are equivalent to.
        
           | megiddo wrote:
           | And the error rate of 10^-3 seems problematic, as well.
        
         | hk1337 wrote:
         | So, then I am definitely good using 4096 RSA?
        
           | upofadown wrote:
           | Sure, but ridiculously large key sizes like 4096 bit RSA are
           | not really any more resistant to quantum computing than
           | smaller sizes. This is probably a joke, but the suggestion
           | was made that you might be OK with a 1 TB RSA key size:
           | 
           | * https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2017/05/post-
           | quantum_...
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | bcaa7f3a8bbc wrote:
             | That pqRSA paper by DJB is a joke, but it's mathematically
             | correct and an interesting thought experiment - RSA really
             | becomes post-quantum when you use a 1 TB key because it
             | outgrows what Shor's algorithm can scale at that point. The
             | paper is actually better, it proposed an original
             | algorithm, GEECM, that's faster than Shor's algorithm for
             | numbers with many small factors, then also showed pqRSA is
             | safe from GEECM. He even submitted the algorithm to the
             | NIST Post-Quantum Competition for review (among his more
             | practical algorithms like Classic McEliece), it's just
             | hilarious.
             | 
             | > DJB yelling from the back of the room "How much RAM does
             | the NIST benchmarking machine have??" Dustin Moody replying
             | "Dan, we're not benchmarking pqRSA!"
             | 
             | https://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/59591/why-is-
             | pqrs...
             | 
             | Here's his explanation of the idea:
             | 
             | https://cr.yp.to/talks/2017.06.27/slides-
             | djb-20170627-pqrsa-...
        
               | SAI_Peregrinus wrote:
               | Given the number of Star Wars references in the various
               | NIST Post-Quantum Competition scheme names (CRYSTALS-
               | KYBER, SABER, NewHope) I'm rather sad he didn't call it
               | "Post Quantum RSA - The Phantom Menace".
        
         | SilasX wrote:
         | I would have preferred they title it "How to factor 2048 ..."
        
       | stkai wrote:
       | Could anyone take a stab at the cost of such a computer, if it
       | were possible to build today? Like, I know there are computers of
       | <100 qubits, but how much does one cost?
        
       | jepler wrote:
       | Besides the number of qbits, is "multimode memory" real or
       | hypothetical?
        
         | codeulike wrote:
         | From the abstract: _We suggest realizing such an architecture
         | using a microwave interface between a processor made with
         | superconducting qubits and a multiplexed memory using the
         | principle of photon echo in solids doped with rare-earth ions._
         | 
         | I would guess hypothetical
        
       | wealthyyy wrote:
       | Quantam is a scam. Repeat, it's a bullshit. Read Scott Locklin
       | blog post.
        
       | zozbot234 wrote:
       | That's just 6.56 qubits per factored RSA integer - or
       | alternately, 11.57 days per factored RSA integer. Quite
       | impressive either way!
        
         | codeulike wrote:
         | Thats not what they mean. Title should read '2048 bit'
        
       | kjrose wrote:
       | It's an interesting theory but like most items in quantum
       | computing it is purely theoretical. Not sure how much it would
       | cost to build.
       | 
       | I hope someone gets a grant to work out the engineering
       | difficulties in this.
        
         | reikonomusha wrote:
         | I would say most items in quantum computing are _not_
         | theoretical. They've been demonstrated. Moreover, quantum
         | physics is by far our most accurate theory of physics we have
         | 
         | What is still hypothesized is whether these elements, which
         | have been demonstrated to work in small numbers (<100), will
         | work in large numbers.
        
           | AlanYx wrote:
           | Until someone successfully demonstrates an error-corrected
           | qubit, it's probably fair to still call a lot of work in the
           | quantum computing realm theoretical.
        
       | davidmurdoch wrote:
       | This reminds me to listen to MC Frontalot's Secrets from the
       | Future again. If you haven't heard it yet, you're in for a treat!
       | https://youtu.be/FUPstXCqyus
        
       | haltingproblem wrote:
       | I fear it is my obligation to point out this excellent screed by
       | Scott Lockin: "Quantum computing as a field is obvious bullshit".
       | A beautiful excerpt from the article:
       | 
       |  _When I say Quantum Computing is a bullshit field, I don't mean
       | everything in the field is bullshit, though to first order, this
       | appears to be approximately true. I don't have a mathematical
       | proof that Quantum Computing isn't at least theoretically
       | possible. I also do not have a mathematical proof that we can or
       | can't make the artificial bacteria of K. Eric Drexler's nanotech
       | fantasies. Yet, I know both fields are bullshit. Both fields
       | involve forming new kinds of matter that we haven't the slightest
       | idea how to construct. Neither field has a sane 'first step' to
       | make their large claims true.
       | 
       | .....
       | 
       | "quantum computing" enthusiasts expect you to overlook the fact
       | that they haven't a clue as to how to build and manipulate
       | quantum coherent forms of matter necessary to achieve quantum
       | computation. A quantum computer capable of truly factoring the
       | number 21 is missing in action. In fact, the factoring of the
       | number 15 into 3 and 5 is a bit of a parlour trick, as they
       | design the experiment while knowing the answer, thus leaving out
       | the gates required if we didn't know how to factor 15. The actual
       | number of gates needed to factor a n-bit number is 72 x n^3; so
       | for 15, it's 4 bits, 4608 gates; not happening any time soon._
       | 
       | [1]: https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2019/01/15/quantum-
       | comput...
        
         | TheRealPomax wrote:
         | except we already use qubits in the real world, and we already
         | use entangled pairs in banking, so it's not really all that
         | bullshit anymore. Quantum computers with a significant number
         | (e.g thousands, but really, millions) of qubits, however, are
         | still quite a ways away. But clearly not in the realm of
         | bullshit anymore.
        
           | haltingproblem wrote:
           | I would love to learn more, please share any relevant useful
           | links.
           | 
           | Edit: Cursorily googled and did not find a reference for
           | usage but plenty of papers talking about potential
           | applications. Might be wrong though.
        
           | mikeodds wrote:
           | Is this referencing quantum cryptography being used in
           | banking? Any good sources for more info on this, it sounds
           | really interesting.
        
             | Moodles wrote:
             | I'm no expert in quantum computation but my understanding
             | is that using qubits for quantum computing is totally
             | different to using qubits to exchange secrets as in
             | cryptographic key exchange. The latter is using the
             | property that observing the quantum state changes the
             | state, thus an eavesdropper can't interfere when you send
             | qubits over the wire to exchange a secret. That seems very
             | different to arranging large amounts of qubits in a
             | particular way to do useful calculations.
             | 
             | Even in the key exchange case, I'm personally pretty
             | skeptical of its real-world usefulness because it's not
             | really solving a problem we actually have: public key
             | cryptography (even slower post-quantum variants) work just
             | fine and seem a bit more practical than building some
             | quantum infrastructure to send entangled qubits over to
             | augment a secret that's already exchanged.
        
               | haltingproblem wrote:
               | That was my initial reaction - quantum entanglement for
               | crypto is not same as quantum computing and furthermore a
               | hammer in search of a problem that does not exist (yet).
        
       | dzdt wrote:
       | Quantum computers of this scale are probably 5-15 years out.
       | Basically this is a warning that if you have secrets that should
       | still be kept secret over that timeframe, you should not be using
       | RSA today.
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | I'd be willing to bet a lot that it's not 5 years, and am still
         | quite confident it's not 15.
         | 
         | Of course nobody knows, but these things are still very far
         | from anything that is running today.
        
           | cronin101 wrote:
           | At this rate, maybe the first commercial Fusion plants will
           | have asymmetric quantum encryption securing their management
           | portal.
        
             | albertgoeswoof wrote:
             | no no no, you need high performance enterprise grade http
             | on port 80 listening on all interfaces for a power plant
             | portal
        
           | dandellion wrote:
           | But even if I agree that it's almost impossible in 5 years
           | it's better to be cautious and assume it could be broken in
           | 5. And there's also the fact it could be broken by some
           | governments long before anyone finds out I guess.
        
         | carlmr wrote:
         | Even if it was, 177days for cracking your password with the
         | most advanced technology that exists in the world, still means
         | you have some very powerful enemies. Practically you don't need
         | to think about it.
        
           | PeterisP wrote:
           | I.e. you can solve it by rotating your keys/certificates
           | every 90 days, like the expiry term given by Letsencrypt.
        
             | CodesInChaos wrote:
             | Rotating keys works for authentication, but not for
             | confidentiality, since nothing stops an attacker from
             | recording the ciphertext and decrypting past messages.
        
               | PeterisP wrote:
               | In common practice RSA keys/certificates are used for TLS
               | and similar protocols where it does not allow to decrypt
               | past recorded communications, as those are encrypted with
               | an ephemeral session keys that can not be determined from
               | observing the handshake even if you have the keys.
               | Obtaining a private key would allow you to MITM future
               | sessions and decrypt them, but it would not break
               | confidentiality of past messages. Things like PGP-
               | encrypted email files would be vulnerable, but that niche
               | is extremely rare in comparison to other uses of RSA and
               | similar encryption.
        
               | bloak wrote:
               | But those ephemeral session keys can not be determined
               | from observing the handshake because the handshake uses
               | asymmetric cryptographic algorithms which may use exactly
               | the same mathematics as RSA.
        
               | hannob wrote:
               | That's not how this works.
               | 
               | An attacker can record the key exchange. That is not
               | using RSA, today it's usually some variation of elliptic
               | curve diffie hellman. But that is just as vulnerable to
               | quantum attacks as RSA. So you're attacking the key
               | exchange, not the RSA signature.
               | 
               | What you're probably alluding to here is the forward
               | secrecy property of TLS. But that is only true under the
               | assumption that the key exchange is secure. In a quantum
               | attack scenario it is not.
               | 
               | So a store-and-decrypt-later attack is still a very valid
               | concern around TLS and quantum computers.
        
               | monocasa wrote:
               | Diffie hellman is on the table to be cracked too by
               | quantum computers, just as much as RSA.
        
               | PeterisP wrote:
               | Interesting, I had assumed that the whole purpose of
               | Diffie-Hellman and the like is to ensure that the
               | ephemeral keys which are generated during the process
               | can't be recovered from recorded traffic even if you
               | later find out the private keys used by the parties. Or
               | is it the case that it's secure from just knowing the
               | private keys, but efficient factorization e.g. Shor's
               | algorithm can break the whole process?
        
               | CodesInChaos wrote:
               | The server holds the private key associated with the
               | certificate for a long time.
               | 
               | If you don't use ephemeral keys that means that
               | compromising the sever (hacking, subpoena, etc) that will
               | allow an attacker to decrypt any session they recorded
               | which used that long term key.
               | 
               | If you use ephemeral keys, the attacker needs to learn
               | the ephemeral private key instead of the long term
               | private key to decrypt the session. The server throws
               | away the ephemeral private key (plus the symmetric
               | session key) after a short time. So a later compromise of
               | the server will not allow an attacker to decrypt old
               | sessions.
               | 
               | An attacker who can break the underlying cryptography on
               | the other hand can still break the ephemeral keys used
               | for the connection, since they (unavoidably) learn the
               | public key from the handshake. It might increase cost,
               | because they need to break each connection separately,
               | but at that point the security margin is terribly thin.
        
               | UncleMeat wrote:
               | RSA is rarely actually used for doing the message
               | encryption. Instead it is used for negotiating other
               | keys. Perfect-forward-secrecy enables you to get message
               | confidentiality even if your key is leaked after the
               | message is sent.
        
               | CodesInChaos wrote:
               | Diffie-Hellman over finite fields or elliptic curves is
               | just as vulnerable to Shor's algorithm as RSA. I believe
               | ECC might even need fewer qubits to break at the same
               | classical security level, since the numbers are smaller.
               | 
               | There is a small benefit, because now an attacker needs
               | to attack each session separately, instead of attacking a
               | single key to break all sessions with a particular sever.
               | But that's hardly something you want to rely on.
        
               | xucheng wrote:
               | Perfect-forward-secrecy relies on that you didn't break
               | the underlying cryptography primitives, which is not true
               | with QC.
        
             | IncRnd wrote:
             | Unfortunately, this doesn't solve the complete issue.
             | 
             | Consider that Internet traffic is recorded today and has
             | been for some time. This means that the certificate
             | rotation isn't the entire solution. Algorithm types and
             | sizes along with ephemeral certificates should be
             | considered.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | carlmr wrote:
             | Also probably you should think about all the other security
             | low-hanging fruit first.
        
             | codeulike wrote:
             | They would have a 50% chance of cracking it within 90 days,
             | I would have thought.
        
         | IncRnd wrote:
         | Five years is incredibly close for this type of computer to be
         | built!
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > you should not be using RSA today
         | 
         | Also, always remember that ECC is believed to be just as weak
         | against quantum computers as RCA. So you'll probably want some
         | fusion of pre and post-quantum algorithms.
         | 
         | Or, anyway, get your perfect forward secrecy working and don't
         | rely on asymmetric crypto for confidentiality. Yeah, PFS is
         | very hard to get on some use cases, but it's really the best
         | way to solve this problem.
        
           | dfox wrote:
           | PFS still involves asymmetric cryptography. And in fact in
           | essentially every modern cryptography stack (ie. (EC)DLP-
           | based) the "PFS primitive" (Diffie-Hellman, ie. scalar
           | multiplication/exponentiation) is the one thing that
           | everything else is derived from.
           | 
           | RSA is in fact somewhat notable for being the only widely
           | used asymmetric cryptosystem where the underlying operation
           | is block cipher-ish encryption primitive and not key
           | agreement primitive.
        
             | SAI_Peregrinus wrote:
             | > RSA is in fact somewhat notable for being the only widely
             | used asymmetric cryptosystem where the underlying operation
             | is block cipher-ish encryption primitive and not key
             | agreement primitive.
             | 
             | Debatable. It's sort of true of RSA-OAEP. That's not true
             | of RSA-PSS (signatures), nor of RSA-KEM (key
             | encapsulation). Really it's the OAEP that's block-cipher
             | like, and the fundamental RSA operation (modular
             | exponentiation) isn't "encryption" or "signing" or
             | "decryption" or "encapsulation" or anything else
             | cryptographic on its own.
        
           | CodesInChaos wrote:
           | Forward secrecy relies on asymmetric crypto, it merely uses
           | short lived/one-time keys instead of long lived keys. The
           | most popular algorithm for ephemeral key exchange is
           | (Elliptic curve) Diffie-Hellman which is just as weak against
           | quantum attacks as RSA. So adding a post-quantum algorithm is
           | just as important for PFS as for plain RSA.
        
           | formerly_proven wrote:
           | Yes, that's how pqcrypto is done today. Run two key
           | exchanges, one we're pretty sure is solid, and one that might
           | be post-quantum-secure but has some risk of actually not
           | being secure at all, and use a robust combiner on their
           | outputs.
        
       | 2iP1zbR wrote:
       | layman here. i understand that if said theoretical computer did
       | exist, encrypted stored data using today's standards is for the
       | most part compromised, outside of further obfuscation, which the
       | popular opinion seems to believe only helps so much.
       | 
       | that means the past is compromised, with some amount of
       | implementation afterwards. i've always wondered just how much the
       | future is compromised.
       | 
       | i've always thought about encryption this way:                 P
       | = some degree of computational power              A = some small
       | unit of P, like a laptop       B = the largest unit of P
       | practically         possible under the same laws of physics as A
       | (data encrypted by A cannot be "cracked" by B in a reasonable
       | amount of time)
       | 
       | so in my head, so long as a normal civilian can access qubit
       | technology (likely questionable), encryption still works by
       | increasing the number of rounds. what am i missing?
       | 
       | edited for format, then again for clarity
        
         | monocasa wrote:
         | Quantum computers will have civilian access. They already do in
         | fact. And the issue is that they change _the complexity_ for
         | some algorithms so adding rounds isn't going to help.
         | 
         | We'll just migrate to quantum resistant algorithms like we
         | migrated away from MD5.
        
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