[HN Gopher] Rents for the rich are plummeting. Rents for the poo...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Rents for the rich are plummeting. Rents for the poor are rising.
       Why?
        
       Author : ece
       Score  : 75 points
       Date   : 2021-03-22 18:57 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.washingtonpost.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.washingtonpost.com)
        
       | wideareanetwork wrote:
       | Because by definition rich means "can buy house", and poor means
       | "no choice but to rent".
       | 
       | What sort of rich person rents a house, except whilst between
       | selling old and new?
       | 
       | It's a strange question to ask .... who doesn't see this as self
       | evident?
        
         | vagrantJin wrote:
         | Some poor people just build houses slowly over several years in
         | less than ideal places ofcourse. If the world decides to spit
         | me out, I'll have a pretty big hiding hole.
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | _What sort of rich person rents a house, except whilst between
         | selling old and new?_
         | 
         | Think apartments, not houses. Think young single people in tech
         | making $100k+.
        
         | rainyMammoth wrote:
         | That's a weird comment. Plenty of people are rich by your
         | definition (could easily buy a house) but don't do it because
         | it makes no sense financially. Most good investors are better
         | off renting and getting higher returns in the stock market.
         | Renting also allows you to move very quickly and you don't
         | spend your time fixing things (i let my landlord handle it all)
        
           | majormajor wrote:
           | You can't get the same leverage nearly as safely or as easily
           | in the stock market, which is why so many people start to
           | play landlord with second, third, etc, properties that they
           | finance.
           | 
           | What changed in the last year is that people want a lot more
           | space which is pulling them out of the "expensive apartment"
           | market and into the "house" market, while also being less
           | concerned about commute distance. So the expensive apartments
           | fall in demand while the houses go through the roof, without
           | effecting the lower end of the rental market at all.
        
             | rainyMammoth wrote:
             | Even with the leverage, it is in most cases still not a
             | good investment. There are a lot of calculator out there
             | that shows you the break even point between renting and
             | buying.
             | 
             | You forget all the horrible fees that come with owning a
             | place (HOA, maintenance, property taxes, 6% lost to agents
             | at every transaction)
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | For me, those calculators tell me I'm better off buying
               | if I'm gonna stay for at least 5-7 years. Which is... not
               | a terribly long amount of time, honestly. If I'd made the
               | buying decision 5 years ago, I would've actually been
               | much better off by then, because my rent went up way more
               | than predicted. So of course there's a lot of uncertainty
               | there. Maybe purchase prices will crash soon. Or maybe we
               | hit a new normal and individual homes or spacious
               | townhomes never come back down in price, due to shifts in
               | demand.
               | 
               | My rent means that there are tens of thousands of dollars
               | a year that I'll never be able to invest in anything. So
               | even if I had a better investment option than taking a 5x
               | (or more!) leverage multiplier on a downpayment, it would
               | still have to overcome a pretty big disadvantage right
               | there to come out ahead in the long run.
        
               | alisonkisk wrote:
               | Buying is a near perfectly good investment (sadly).
               | Selling is almost the only way to lose money in real
               | estate.
        
         | sidlls wrote:
         | I recently won the IPO lottery--went from nearly zero net
         | wealth to a solid seven figure net wealth. I could buy a house
         | in the bay area and give up > 50% of my cash for it, or I could
         | give up 15-25% of my net wealth with a down payment on a a
         | mortgage and pay (PITI) 110% or more of what I could pay in
         | rent for a similar home.
         | 
         | Or I could continue renting and put that 15% - > 50% of my net
         | worth in appreciating assets and income producing investments.
         | Even better: I could move my family to a place where people
         | aren't paying $2M for a home that's worth $250k.
         | 
         | The housing market here is suited best for people with
         | absolutely no money sense at all, or those VHNWI and UHNWI who
         | can buy into genuine investment grade real estate out here. It
         | makes zero sense for the vast majority of people to buy here,
         | especially people who more or less win a lottery with some
         | options from a company that makes an exit. In almost every case
         | their money would be put to better use renting here and
         | investing elsewhere (assuming they're tied down here, e.g., due
         | to work).
        
           | nostrademons wrote:
           | "The housing market here is suited best..."
           | 
           | Or people who've put down roots here. Some people value
           | family, friends, and community more than economic
           | maximization. The Bay Area has excellent schools, being nerdy
           | makes you cool, immigrants and people with different skin
           | colors are accepted, there are a wide variety of cultural
           | attractions, the weather is always nice, and you can get out
           | in nature quickly.
           | 
           | If I were still a single guy I probably would've moved back
           | home after winning the stock option lottery, but my wife's
           | family is all here, my friends are here, my kid won't get
           | bullied for being nerdy, etc. That's really why people stay,
           | and they pay a premium to do it.
        
             | imperfectcats wrote:
             | Purely economically motivated decisions are rare. We all
             | have reasons beyond the financial to live wherever,
             | including something as simple as our wife/husband wants to
             | live there.
             | 
             | There is also an inertia bias. Life has to get pretty
             | expensive for many people to want to undergo the hassle of
             | moving cities / states, which includes leaving behind loved
             | ones, and learning everything new (including leisure things
             | like where you like to eat).
             | 
             | Going meta, NYC and California/The Bay Area make the bulk
             | of their tax revenue from very few industries. The tipping
             | point at which they lose a financially significant portion
             | of their tax base, and the flow on affects of that for
             | government workers and the multiplier downstream, has
             | likely been reached.
        
             | sidlls wrote:
             | All of the cultural items can be had by renting here, too,
             | as my family does, and deploying the rest of the capital in
             | ways that aren't financially illiterate. The decision to
             | buy in the bay area, for the vast majority of people, is
             | damaging to their financial health.
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | That was basically my reasoning when I first came here as
               | well, and so I didn't buy. (Elsewhere in this subthread,
               | I'm arguing exactly that point.)
               | 
               | The part that I didn't factor in was rents basically
               | tripling while I was here, which apparently is not an
               | uncommon occurrence in the Bay Area. In 2010 I was a
               | genius for paying $1400/month in rent rather than
               | $4000/month to buy a condo. In 2017, when rents were
               | $4500/month but that condo payment would've still been
               | $4000 (for a bigger place!) and the condo's value had
               | gone up from $400K to $1M, I was less of a genius.
               | 
               | YMMV. I'm expecting very significant inflation and I've
               | watched firsthand as a lot of my friends got priced out
               | of the Bay Area, so I bought as a way to ensure that my
               | kid will be able to stay in the same school district and
               | remain near family. Time will tell whether that's a
               | fiscally brilliant or fiscally idiotic decision.
        
         | WJW wrote:
         | Buying has costs too. Mortgages are an obvious example, but
         | even if you could afford the house without debt the money could
         | also have been invested in something that yields income like
         | stocks or bonds. If the amount you'd receive in income from
         | investing the house price can cover the rent of an equivalent
         | house, it can make sense to rent as you come out ahead overall.
         | It does not surprise me at all that rich people (who can take
         | the time to shop around because they are not at risk of getting
         | evicted) manage to get a better deal than someone who
         | represents more credit risk for the landlord.
         | 
         | Of course pulling this type of thing off requires that you can
         | find investments that will yield more than the rent price,
         | which may not be easy to do in the long term as high yielding
         | investments can often carry unforeseen risks. Also because a
         | significant amount of people already know this, when renting is
         | "cheap" enough compared to buying the demand for renting will
         | increase and prices will rise. This means that the condition is
         | unstable and will often disappear on its own.
         | 
         | Still, there are sometimes very valid monetary reasons to rent
         | instead of buy. Then there are nonmonetary reasons to rent
         | instead of buy that make sense even for quite rich people. If
         | you're a NYC banker and you get seconded to London for 2 years
         | to set up some new division, it is probably not worth the
         | hassle to buy a house there.
        
           | rainyMammoth wrote:
           | I am with you. There is a huge lobby to make people buy
           | houses. Not enough people question if it is a good
           | investment. The opportunity cost to buy vs rent is huge.
        
         | WalterBright wrote:
         | > What sort of rich person rents a house
         | 
         | One who doesn't want to bother with maintenance, insurance,
         | taxes, etc. One who wants to leave whenever they feel like it,
         | instead of having to go through months of a sale process.
        
         | Frost1x wrote:
         | There are probably also ways of justifying a rental through a
         | business expense vs personal assets. I know a few businesses
         | that pay for living expenses for some of their top level
         | corporate staff under certain circumstances.
         | 
         | I've seen it done as a job perk for certain positions which
         | seems like a way of indirectly increasing total comp without
         | increasing taxable income. I'm not rich enough to know all the
         | tax laws and loopholes around this area though.
        
         | terio wrote:
         | In some markets, e.g. San Francisco, it does not make financial
         | sense to buy and renting is a better option.
        
         | Mc_Big_G wrote:
         | There's a high percentage of "rich" people in the Bay Area who
         | rent because even a run-down, small, shitty house is $1mm+.
        
         | wpietri wrote:
         | Ones good at math and likely to move in a few years?
         | 
         | Buying a house has really high transaction costs. ~6%
         | commission, plus more in fees and taxes. And then once you have
         | the house, you've taken on all the maintenance and price risk.
         | That can make sense if you're staying a long time and want the
         | benefits of ownership. But plenty of people with high-flying
         | jobs know that they may move soon enough that the math doesn't
         | work out.
         | 
         | Personally, I could afford to buy a house, but I never have. I
         | like the freedom, and I really like never having to worry about
         | maintenance, taxes, renovations, and the like.
        
           | majormajor wrote:
           | > Buying a house has really high transaction costs. ~6%
           | commission, plus more in fees and taxes. And then once you
           | have the house, you've taken on all the maintenance and price
           | risk. That can make sense if you're staying a long time and
           | want the benefits of ownership. But plenty of people with
           | high-flying jobs know that they may move soon enough that the
           | math doesn't work out.
           | 
           | Interestingly, most of the transaction costs hit you when you
           | _sell_ , not when you _buy_ , which is one of the ways the US
           | favors landlordism and sequentially acquiring more and more
           | properties instead of just renting forever, or even just
           | buying one primary residence and sticking with just one.
        
         | nostrademons wrote:
         | "What sort of rich person rents a house, except whilst between
         | selling old and new?"
         | 
         | There are quite a few techies who move to SF, work for the hot
         | unicorn for 4 years, and live extremely cheaply. They don't buy
         | housing because they don't intend to stay in SF (and besides,
         | who wants to buy a house in SF?), but when they "retire"
         | they've got a few million in stock options. They _can_ buy a
         | house, they just don 't want to, because their living situation
         | is temporary.
         | 
         | I suspect that a lot of the housing boom going on around the
         | country now is because the rich techies in SF no longer have to
         | stay in SF.
        
           | endisneigh wrote:
           | I don't really buy this. if you're going to be at a hot
           | startup for 4 years and can easily afford a house the way the
           | SF bay market has been for the past 2 decades is such that
           | you would've made money in any 4 year period just buying and
           | selling. covid might be the single exception.
           | 
           | I think the issue is more that sf people are rich for the
           | country but not rich for the bay area so they just rent.
        
             | rainyMammoth wrote:
             | Or as explained above it doesn't make sense to buy since it
             | is cheaper to rent.
        
               | endisneigh wrote:
               | from my experience, prior to covid, it really hasn't been
               | if you're capable of buying.
               | 
               | look at the 2012 to 2016 period for example of rent vs
               | purchase. if you just bought an average condo and sold it
               | you basically could've ended up staying for free vs.
               | renting.
        
               | andreilys wrote:
               | You're neglecting to mention opportunity cost. That money
               | could've been invested in stocks, crypto, etc. and you
               | would've made out a lot better (and avoided the headaches
               | that come with owning property)
        
               | sidlls wrote:
               | And for the same cash commitment you could have bought 2
               | - 3 multifamily homes in sane real estate markets that
               | produce $60k - $80k (or more!) net income (rents less
               | management and taxes). You would have diversified your
               | portfolio, lived "free" (i.e. the net is likely about the
               | same as or more than total annual rent in a decent home
               | in the bay area), appreciated somewhat, and positioned
               | yourself for handsome tax deferrals or savings due to
               | depreciation and other strategies.
        
               | rainyMammoth wrote:
               | Are you picking the bay area as an extreme example?
               | 
               | As an example if you invested in tech stocks only from
               | 2012 to 2016 you would have had enough money to buy 3
               | condos.
        
             | mikeyouse wrote:
             | "Just" buying and selling also has a higher bar now than
             | ever before -- Median sales prices are around $1.5M for
             | peninsula / SF locations. Even on extremely generous tech
             | salaries, it'll take some time to build up enough savings
             | to get a loan.
        
               | endisneigh wrote:
               | I completely agree, my point though is if you are legit
               | rich, even for the bay area, it makes no sense to ever
               | rent. someone with a net worth upwards of 20M isn't going
               | to save any money renting even if they stay a paltry 5
               | years (though covid and WFH might change things of
               | course, but this pattern has held up decently for the
               | past couple decades).
        
             | nostrademons wrote:
             | Opportunity cost. Housing in the Bay Area goes up an
             | average of about 7%/year, roughly inline with the S&P 500.
             | Google stock has increased 13x in the last 11 years, for an
             | average annualized return of about 25%. If you were at
             | AirBnB or Stripe your return is about 100x, making over
             | 100%/year.
             | 
             | With leverage the computation gets a bit more complex, but
             | basically you're paying 4.5% interest on 7% appreciation,
             | and not needing to pay rent, so you may get 4-5% real
             | returns. Lever up 5x with a 20% down payment and you get
             | about 25% returns - competitive with Google, but in the
             | same ballpark, and you've taken on the risk of foreclosure
             | or being underwater if there's a housing bust (which happen
             | periodically in the Bay Area and take prices down 10-40%).
             | 
             | The stock is a lot more liquid, you can take it anywhere,
             | you can sell it whenever you want, you can move in with a
             | girlfriend and keep it. If you haven't made a conscious
             | decision to _stay_ in the Bay Area, the stock performs much
             | better.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | And you realistically have access to a 2x-3x lever on
               | margin anyway.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | >but basically you're paying 4.5% interest on 7%
               | appreciation, and not needing to pay rent, so you may get
               | 4-5% real returns.
               | 
               | And it's down to 2.5% interest or even lower for 30 year
               | fixed for some people.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | Low rates just mean you pay more to the seller for the
               | asset, and financing costs less. If rates were 5%, you'd
               | pay less for the asset but more in financing costs. The
               | monthly payment probably wouldn't change substantially.
               | 
               | Sort of how a bond's value moves inverse to yields.
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | I'm comparing it to historical returns over the last
               | decade, though. Mortgage rates were about 4.5% in 2010,
               | so that's the figure I'm using.
               | 
               | I honestly don't know what the next decade will bring. I
               | would personally bet on high inflation, so that 2.5%
               | mortgage rate will likely be a negative real interest
               | rate. (Hence, I bought.) Stock returns may or may not
               | equal the previous decade's, as well.
        
       | airhead969 wrote:
       | As a point of reference: where I'm at is rapidly gentrifying with
       | phony, corporate clone office workers while hundreds of homeless
       | people are living in tents visible outside next to the highway.
       | There isn't enough affordable housing and the % set-asides are a
       | joke because they're so few and far between.
        
       | numpad0 wrote:
       | Shrinking market means prices move towards average
        
       | roguecoder wrote:
       | While the article is interesting, there is one dynamic it missed:
       | tech debt.
       | 
       | Starting around 1975, housing supply stopped keeping up with the
       | growth of housing demand. It picked back up fifteen years later,
       | around 1990: https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-goldilocks-
       | problem-of...
       | 
       | (But that is on a national level: in the West, in comparison,
       | housing growth hasn't been sufficient to house the new households
       | formed at any time in the last 70 years and so the problems run
       | deeper.)
       | 
       | Normally, cheap housing is housing that was expensive housing
       | 30-100 years ago. Think of all of the post-war apartments in NYC,
       | or the Boston multi-family houses built around the previous turn
       | of the century.
       | 
       | Since many cities currently lack the recently-aging housing that
       | would normally be filtering down market right now, the elasticity
       | at the top is affecting housing too new for developers to be out
       | of debt on, and thus we are unlikely to see it translate into
       | lower prices on the low end until another 20-25 years pass and we
       | get out of this housing doldrum.
       | 
       | (Not the West, though. Sorry San Francisco: you just have to
       | build more places where people can live.)
        
         | legerdemain wrote:
         | If cheap housing is expensive housing built 30-100 years ago,
         | we should have had decades and decades of delapidating housing
         | stock left to go before hitting a shortage.
         | 
         | Not to mention your example of housing in Boston built at the
         | turn of the 20th century. A laissez faire policy that makes the
         | poor wait 120 years for housing is hardly any policy at all.
        
           | roguecoder wrote:
           | And many cities did, which is why the trend has been getting
           | slowly worse.
           | 
           | I didn't talk about any "laissez faire" policy, and as far as
           | I know no city in the US is pursuing a laissez faire policy.
           | I also don't know why you think it is bad to have housing
           | stock that lasts; having lived in a number of those turn of
           | the century homes, they were better and cheaper than the
           | "affordable" new apartment options. They were well-built
           | luxury homes that are comfortable to live in, but didn't have
           | the modern status symbols the new luxury apartments had. It
           | isn't a universal thing, either; it was specifically because
           | the luxury housing from the time was _nice_. I looked at
           | cheap apartments in 1970s cement bunkers and always went back
           | to living in a beautiful Victorian with vaulted ceilings,
           | even if they were dustier & colder.
           | 
           | Affordable housing will always compromise on something, and
           | personally I preferred finding roommates & buying space
           | heaters to living in a shoebox.
           | 
           | As someone below noted, these dynamics vary dramatically by
           | local. California, much less San Francisco, is a whole
           | different kettle of fish. But because we stopped building
           | housing for a while, we are at best going to face a period of
           | catch-up, no matter what we do.
        
           | kelp wrote:
           | At least for San Francisco, the seeds of the current shortage
           | started as early as 1912 with the establishment of the
           | planning commission.
           | 
           | See this amazing twitter thread with images of historical
           | news paper clippings.
           | 
           | https://twitter.com/enf/status/753435745272995840
           | 
           | Later on, in 1978, most of the city was down-zoned, and in
           | the EIR (Environmental Impact Report) written at the time, it
           | was clearly predicted that this would result in a supply
           | shortage and increased prices. Unless the city made a point
           | to increase density and development in the industrial parts
           | of the city. That didn't really happy to the scale the EIR
           | said was needed.
           | 
           | See: https://twitter.com/enf/status/775185946941591553?s=20
           | 
           | So here we are.
        
         | frongpik wrote:
         | Insufficient housing creates competition among workers and they
         | do more work for less pay, as nobody wants to be an outsider.
         | The number of building permits is set by city councils and
         | those listen to the capital as the latter can choose where to
         | create jobs.
        
           | totalZero wrote:
           | > the latter can choose where to create jobs
           | 
           | Jobs such as "city councilman," for example.
        
         | Lammy wrote:
         | > Starting around 1975
         | 
         | Guess what happened in October 1974:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Credit_Opportunity_Act
        
           | bathtub365 wrote:
           | Can you explain the significance of this correlation?
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | this kind of thing will never end until there's national zoning
       | laws that override local ones. however something like that would
       | be challenged probably up to the supreme court.
       | 
       | it's a tough hill to die on.
       | 
       | it's a never ending cycle -> if you're poor you're more likely to
       | rent -> if you rent you're more likely to be affected by a
       | recession -> if you're laid off others are also laid off ->
       | landlord risk increases so rent increases commensurately ->
       | repeat.
       | 
       | the only way to end this vicious cycle is to just buy your house
       | as you're more insulated from rent increases and moratoriums are
       | a bit more generous, but zoning laws...
        
       | outside1234 wrote:
       | It is a huge risk right now to take on someone that is poor as a
       | renter because of the moratorium. It is completely unsurprising
       | to me that landlords have priced this risk factor in.
        
         | tehjoker wrote:
         | It's crazy that we live in an economy where you have to pay
         | just to live somewhere, but when the eviction moratorium ends,
         | there's going to be a huge financial reckoning as there's no
         | way anyone is paying all that back rent.
         | 
         | Biden is going to have to either bail out tenants or landlords
         | and banks. I'll be taking bets on which one he does.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | It's crazy that we live in an economy where all you have to
           | do to live until 80 years is pay to live somewhere. We don't
           | even have to hunt our own food.
        
           | hsitz wrote:
           | ??? In what economy do most people not have to pay just to
           | live somewhere?
        
         | gnicholas wrote:
         | Interestingly, if landlords were allowed to use larger security
         | deposits, some would choose to do this instead of raising the
         | monthly rent. My friend is looking to rent out an ADU, and the
         | first idea was to have a sizable security deposit in order to
         | filter applicants who fully intended on paying rent from those
         | who would be more likely to use the eviction moratorium.
         | 
         | But apparently California tightened the rules around security
         | deposits in 2020, which actually exacerbates this problem.
         | Landlords used to be able to ask for up to two month's rent as
         | a security deposit, but now they can only ask for one month's
         | rent.
         | 
         | This leads to upward pressure on rents, as landlords adjust the
         | only lever they have left. I wonder if applicants can/do offer
         | to prepay several month's rent, to signal that they are serious
         | long-term tenants who have the ability and interest in paying
         | rent (even if they legally could avoid payment).
        
           | alisonkisk wrote:
           | How is prepaying rent different from a larger security
           | deposit?
        
             | gnicholas wrote:
             | It has a similar signaling effect, but someone could prepay
             | 6 months rent and then just stop paying. With a security
             | deposit, you have that as a buffer until the person leaves.
             | 
             | Perhaps the best way to accomplish this without having the
             | landlord perpetually hang onto large amounts of tenant cash
             | is to have a large deposit that slowly decreases over time,
             | as trust increases. So perhaps it would be 5 or 6 months of
             | deposit that is used to offset every 3rd month of rent
             | during the first year.
        
           | offtop5 wrote:
           | That's horrible to hear, I was only able to get my first
           | apartment in California since I could offer a double deposit.
           | 
           | Chicago on the other hand has fantastic housing supply and so
           | many rules on security deposits, most buildings just don't do
           | it. Access to housing permeates every aspect of a culture,
           | people are significantly nicer when they can afford a place
           | to live.
           | 
           | Has your friend been able to get out of California ?
        
             | gnicholas wrote:
             | Chicago does have a large supply of housing and land that
             | can be converted into housing. This helps keep the cost of
             | housing closer to the cost required to construct units.
             | 
             | In CA, the cost of a home has almost nothing to do with the
             | input costs other than land. There are areas that could be
             | built up (tons of land just west of 280), but which is
             | protected by environmental laws or restrictions. Full
             | development of this land would lead to traffic nightmares,
             | for sure, but one could imagine that some of it could be
             | developed as we move toward more efficient modes of
             | transport.
        
               | roguecoder wrote:
               | San Francisco also has 26 skyscrapers to Chicago's 130.
               | 80% of the Bay Area is zoned exclusive for single family,
               | to Chicago's 41.1%.
               | 
               | It's not landscape and it's not rocket science: it's
               | zoning. San Francisco could build up, letting people live
               | closer to their work & be much better for the environment
               | than encouraging sprawl, but chooses not to. Y'all
               | decided to make housing expensive, so it is.
        
           | TuringNYC wrote:
           | This comment is spot on. Rent premiums are often not greed,
           | but just a risk premium and buffer-collection for a catch all
           | of issues from future non-payment to other BS.
        
             | imtringued wrote:
             | Prices are negotiated. Two parties must agree on the price.
             | If there is a "greedy" landlord overcharging people there
             | must also be a person "willing" to pay the overpriced rent.
             | Of course there are cases of vacant properties but I don't
             | think this is a problem for most rental markets.
        
           | gugagore wrote:
           | > exacerbates this problem
           | 
           | To clarify, the problem you're talking about is that it's
           | risky to be a landlord, and maybe more so now than a few
           | years ago.
           | 
           | > as landlords adjust the only lever they have left
           | 
           | At least some landlords also have the option of pulling the
           | lever labeled "sell the unit".
        
           | silvestrov wrote:
           | wow, that's not much in case the apartment is damaged.
           | 
           | Denmark allows for 3 months deposit plus 3 months rents
           | upfront, so you have to be able to come up with 6 months rent
           | total to get an apartment.
           | 
           | (market here is very hot, so rental apartments have no
           | problem getting 6 months rent)
           | 
           | When you "quit" living in the apartment, you can use the 3
           | months prepaid rent, so you don't have to pay rent the last 3
           | months.
        
             | gnicholas wrote:
             | For sure. Think about the damage that can be done to
             | hardwood floors during move-out, for example. That's one
             | easy way that a unit can be accidentally damaged, even by a
             | tenant who is generally very careful.
             | 
             | Of course, you can still recover payment by suing, but
             | that's obviously more difficult (especially if the former
             | tenant has moved to another city/state).
        
         | baron816 wrote:
         | There was an article a saw a few weeks ago about some guys
         | based out of Oakland (maybe someone else can find it) who has
         | accumulated 5 figures worth of rental debt. It talks about how
         | he had just moved into an expensive place at the beginning of
         | the pandemic, got laid off, then couldn't pay for the whole
         | year.
         | 
         | IIRC, he eventually moved, but still couldn't pay rent and
         | started accumulating even more rent debt there. I can't imagine
         | who would rent an apartment to that guy.
        
           | stevula wrote:
           | Five figures is $10,000. It only takes 2-3 months of rent to
           | reach that in an expensive Oakland apartment.
        
           | darth_avocado wrote:
           | I know the exact article you mentioned. The real story is
           | actually more nuanced. The guy off course got laid off and
           | could no longer afford the rent. But he racked up rent also
           | because even if he moved earlier, his contract would have
           | made him pay a ton of fines to even get out of it. So he
           | decided to stay.
        
         | adolph wrote:
         | The article does cite eviction moratorium effects, but from a
         | different angle:
         | 
         |  _Landlords stuck with tenants who can't pay may try to offset
         | these losses by raising rents on everyone else. Rents in lower-
         | end units tend to already be close to operating costs, Schuetz
         | noted, so landlords may have slim profit margins._
        
           | TuringNYC wrote:
           | Not only this, but there will be a eviction-moratorium risk
           | premium that tenants will implicitly pay for years to come,
           | to adjust for the added risk and to help keep a virtual
           | buffer for future moratoriums.
        
         | pdimitar wrote:
         | That, however, reduces their chance in getting tenants so it
         | becomes a vicious self-feeding closed circuit process?
        
           | an_opabinia wrote:
           | Occupying a home reduces its value. Letting someone live
           | somewhere "for free" (to them) is still worse to the owner of
           | the house than leaving it vacant.
        
           | foepys wrote:
           | It's probably because of speculation. If there is a chance
           | that the moratorium will end in July it's better to not have
           | any tenants for a few months than bad ones you cannot evict
           | and will trash your place. Also, unoccupied properties are
           | always more valuable.
        
             | imtringued wrote:
             | Is it really speculation if the government turns tenants
             | into net negative customers?
        
         | Frost1x wrote:
         | The more modern trend of businesses passing risk sort of flies
         | in the face of the old rationale of business ownership taking
         | on risk which justified the rewards of doing business.
         | 
         | Now you're just doing business wrong if you don't minimize risk
         | or figure out how to shift and transfer risk away from
         | yourself.
        
           | insert_coin wrote:
           | You try to minimize all risks, not only in business but in
           | all aspects of life. That has always been the case. The
           | caricature you presented has never existed.
        
       | adolph wrote:
       | _One likely explanation, Schuetz and others say, is that when the
       | economic crisis hit, more people decided to move down the housing
       | ladder to save money. There was already a shortage of affordable
       | units, though. So, this surge in demand for lower-price-point
       | homes ended up bidding those rents higher._
       | 
       |  _Housing experts say other factors may be at play, too. Some
       | lower-income areas were gentrifying even before the pandemic,
       | leading to higher rents._
        
       | jokethrowaway wrote:
       | > Rents for the poor are rising
       | 
       | Because of the economical impact of locking down the economy and
       | giving money to everyone.
       | 
       | > Rents for the rich are plummeting
       | 
       | Because they don't need to live in expensive central hubs to get
       | their high wages and there is less demand for their luxury flats.
       | 
       | Also, this lax definition of rich people is exactly how the
       | richest 1% can stay hidden.
        
         | sombremesa wrote:
         | > get their high wages
         | 
         | Wages? What are you talking about, the working class?
        
           | Railsify wrote:
           | Many rich people still earn a paycheck. YOu can be on payroll
           | making 500k and have a stock portfolio worth 10mill, this is
           | common for boomers who started investing in the 70s and 80s.
           | A portfolio of that size will easily throw off 500k in
           | dividends a year.
           | 
           | My point is that a large paycheck does not mean you are not
           | paid wages. I get your point though, billionaires probably
           | are not taking a salary.
        
             | MisterBastahrd wrote:
             | This is not common for anyone, not even in SV.
        
               | Railsify wrote:
               | common among the rich people whose mansions are not
               | selling well or have taken price cuts to get them sold.
        
             | scottm01 wrote:
             | >A portfolio of that size will easily throw off 500k in
             | dividends a year.
             | 
             | Where are you "easily" getting 5% dividends? Are those
             | mythical W2 boomers suddenly into sketchy crypto "funds"?
             | 
             | Vanguards "Dividend Growth" fund is yielding 1.71%. Total
             | stock 1.33%
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | >You can be on payroll making 500k and have a stock
             | portfolio worth 10mill, this is common for boomers who
             | started investing in the 70s and 80s. A portfolio of that
             | size will easily throw off 500k in dividends a year.
             | 
             | What is your definition of "common"? Less than 1% of people
             | have savings of $10M at retirement age, surely more than 1%
             | of people started investing in the 70s and 80s.
             | 
             | https://dqydj.com/retirement-savings-by-age/
        
             | ab_testing wrote:
             | > YOu can be on payroll making 500k and have a stock
             | portfolio worth 10mill Or working on FAANGMULAT type of
             | companies for the past many years.
        
       | rogerdickey wrote:
       | It's not "rents for the rich" it's "rents for higher priced
       | apartments" and it's basic supply & demand. This headline stokes
       | unnecessary class conflict. WaPo should be ashamed.
        
         | secondcoming wrote:
         | Those clicks won't click themselves!
        
         | jakelazaroff wrote:
         | Who is renting higher priced apartments if not the rich?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | powersnail wrote:
           | Aren't most rich people living in their own houses? I'd
           | imagine most higher priced apartment renters are middle
           | class.
        
             | jandrewrogers wrote:
             | No, quite a lot of the rich live in rental property, at
             | least part of the time. There are disadvantages to owning,
             | even if you can afford it, and not everywhere you want to
             | live may be for sale.
        
             | warent wrote:
             | I think these days high priced apartments are only
             | affordable by the wealthy, unless people are grouping
             | together with multiple roommates, at which point it means
             | they can't actually afford the apartment, so is it really
             | middle class anymore?
        
               | trillic wrote:
               | If 4 22 year olds making 50k each share a $3,000 4bd 2ba
               | rental "for the rich" I'd say they're middle class and
               | can afford it.
        
           | oh_sigh wrote:
           | If higher priced apartments lower in price, doesn't that make
           | it more affordable for more people? Isn't that a good thing?
        
         | warent wrote:
         | I thought it was a well known problem that in the US class
         | disparity (i.e. the gap between middle class and upper class)
         | is increasing. The middle class is evaporating, becoming very
         | rich or borderline poverty. Am I confused? WaPo isn't really
         | saying anything new or controversial.
        
           | gph wrote:
           | It's more like the middle class is bifurcating between
           | upperish middle class and lower-middle class. In-demand tech
           | workers, doctors, high-level admins/managers, etc. are
           | getting higher and higher wages while other professions that
           | used to be middle class as starting to stagnate and fall
           | behind such as low-level office workers, journalists,
           | teachers, mid-to-low level managers, etc. I wouldn't consider
           | either group to really be upper class, but I guess there's
           | always going to be differences in how people are sorted into
           | those categories.
           | 
           | I think the issue is that the article is inflammatory click-
           | bait because it makes it seems like rich people are getting a
           | break while poor people are getting shafted. It's not until
           | you've read through most the entire article that they finally
           | get to the point, which is that 'rich' people are buying
           | houses in the suburbs/exurbs now that they can work remotely.
           | Unsurprisingly this means prices are spiking in those areas
           | while rent for high-end apartments are shrinking as demand
           | dries up. So rich people aren't really catching a break so
           | much as exiting the rental market in major cities and
           | redirecting their spending to the suburban housing market.
        
       | m463 wrote:
       | I think affordable-level housing will always be competitive, and
       | super-luxury stuff will be white elephant stuff that's subject to
       | compromises.
       | 
       | It's kind of amazing that they raised the rent. Is it because
       | people stopped paying rent and they tried to get it from other
       | renters?
        
         | aeternum wrote:
         | Often this is due to laws that limit annual rent increases. If
         | landlords don't increase the rent by the allowed amount each
         | year, it greatly increases the risk they will be unable to
         | 'catch up' to market rates in the future.
         | 
         | Luxury housing is often not subject to these limitations, so
         | landlords are forced to compete and respond to market dynamics.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | Landlords in big cities always raise rent because they can.
         | They'd rather push a current tenant out than work with them,
         | because with the high turnover they are sure to get a new
         | tenant pretty soon at the higher price anyway. Its this sort of
         | unscrupulous taking, of maximizing profit because its 'leaving
         | money on the table' to not do so, is why we have rent control
         | ordinances which work by capping the maximum yearly % increase
         | in many of our big cities (although this cap is typically
         | higher than the median wage increase so landlords still beat
         | the economy with their investment and with rent control
         | ordinances applied, despite some sentiments online about rent
         | control).
        
           | insert_coin wrote:
           | > Its this sort of unscrupulous taking, of maximizing profit
           | because its 'leaving money on the table' to not do so, is why
           | we have rent control ordinances which work by capping the
           | maximum yearly % increase in many of our big cities
           | 
           | No, the reason is because cities don't want to build more
           | houses.
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | >because with the high turnover they are sure to get a new
           | tenant pretty soon at the higher price anyway
           | 
           | Only if coupled with insufficient construction of new
           | housing.
        
             | ARandumGuy wrote:
             | Which is pretty inevitable with our system of housing
             | development. If you're a large property owner and you want
             | to make more money, you have two options:
             | 
             | A) Build more housing, to create more units you can rent
             | out.
             | 
             | B) Don't build more housing, and use the reduced supply to
             | raise the rent on your existing properties.
             | 
             | Since option B has a lower risk and a higher return on
             | investment, is it really surprising that most metro areas
             | have a big housing shortage?
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Bringing new units online in a high demand market earns
               | far more money than simply raising rents.
               | 
               | It's not large property owners that are opposing new
               | housing, it's existing small (usually single) property
               | owners opposing new housing, usually so their way of life
               | doesn't change due to changing demographics of newcomers,
               | increased traffic, etc. and possibly to restrict supply
               | and increase their property's value.
        
               | pdimitar wrote:
               | Honest question: is choosing option B proven to lead to
               | higher return on investment? Is there data showing it?
               | 
               | Where I live periodically raising rent and evicting
               | people to invite the higher-paying tenant has a limit
               | that's reached pretty soon so maybe US dynamics escape
               | me.
        
               | ARandumGuy wrote:
               | I think it would be hard to prove it one way or the
               | other. There are a lot of variables that go into profit
               | for landlords and property owners, and building one
               | property affects the possible rent on other properties.
               | 
               | However, in a general sense, rent prices are affected by
               | supply and demand, like most other things. Having a
               | housing supply lower then the demand benefits landlords,
               | as they can raise the price without making improvements,
               | and they can more easily fill vacant units. If supply
               | surpasses demand, then landlords are left with empty
               | units they need to fill, and the prices go down.
               | 
               | Obviously, this can only go so far. At a certain point,
               | prices can get so high that few renters can pay for it,
               | or the math becomes more favorable to build more housing.
               | However, the overall incentive structure is for property
               | owners to keep housing supply low, to increase the value
               | of existing properties with minimal investment.
        
               | pdimitar wrote:
               | Your analysis is correct. Let's add one more factor:
               | 
               | At one point the prices become so high that people
               | actually _start getting out of the cities_. That 's what
               | started happening in my country although it's going to be
               | at least a decade until the consequences are felt (since
               | the influx of people is still bigger than those who
               | leave). But it did start happening.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | >However, the overall incentive structure is for property
               | owners to keep housing supply low, to increase the value
               | of existing properties with minimal investment.
               | 
               | For single non commercial property owners. This would be
               | news to the commercial real estate investors that keep
               | trying to develop residential areas and apartment
               | buildings. If you're in a city with high rents and land
               | costs, see who is trying to build and who is trying to
               | block. It's all public information.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | This is actually a good environment for certain parties
               | at play and this is why this status quo is upheld. The
               | way this machine works in LA is that the city
               | councilmember can unilaterally approve or dissaprove
               | development in their district. Certain developers who can
               | gain good favor with the councilmember can have their
               | builds preferentially approved and red tape cut through
               | for them. Commercial real estate investors then look to
               | work with developers with a good relationship with city
               | council.
               | 
               | This sort of setup helps everyone on the inside (the
               | councilmembers, the developers, and the investors), but
               | hurts those on the outside (renters, people hoping to buy
               | one day, real estate companies who haven't yet bought
               | into the machine). However, since those on the inside
               | control the reigns of power, and those on the outside
               | desperately try to work their way into the inside rather
               | than break the system down and build up something more
               | equitable, nothing changes.
        
               | Ericson2314 wrote:
               | Maybe not, but pretty sure the wealth of an urban area is
               | a superlinear function of density and size (super linear
               | on both axes), so choices based on the marginal RoI to
               | land barons will lead to suboptimal outcomes either way.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | In the U.S. there is no limit as long as you aren't a
               | strong outlier relative to mean market rent. People in LA
               | might pay like over half their income on rent, for
               | example. For the working poor, they also typically can't
               | finance a move to a cheaper apartment since they lack any
               | savings, so they cram more people per bedroom or end up
               | living in their car or on the street. It's a sad state of
               | affairs and really hard for working people here. Sucked
               | dry with nothing left to use to get out.
        
             | roguecoder wrote:
             | Don't worry; they have laws to ensure that.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Who is "they"? The people active in the local community
               | and sit on the zoning boards denying permits and
               | variances to build?
        
       | lalaithion wrote:
       | Because it's easier to build housing for the rich than for the
       | poor, due to things like zoning, building regulations, density
       | regulations.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-03-22 23:03 UTC)