[HN Gopher] The operative system for a decarbonised, decentralis...
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       The operative system for a decarbonised, decentralised, digitised
       energy system
        
       Author : snickmy
       Score  : 41 points
       Date   : 2021-03-22 10:40 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nicolabortignon.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nicolabortignon.com)
        
       | cool_dude85 wrote:
       | With you on decarbonised, can at least get behind digitised, but
       | why decentralized? Two significant functions of the electrical
       | utility business are clear natural monopolies, transmission and
       | distribution. Markets and competition on the generation side have
       | proven to be very difficult to manage, e.g. in California with
       | Enron and the recent Texas ice storms.
       | 
       | It seems like a situation where there is a clear central
       | authority, and one that in many places historically has been
       | government-owned and at least in theory democratically
       | accountable to the people. So why not let the utility company
       | manage storage, transfers between different houses, etc.? What's
       | the upside of a bunch of connected microgrids?
        
         | phicoh wrote:
         | I wonder if it makes sense to separate the generation of power
         | from the sale of power to consumers (and of course there is a
         | separate transmission/distribution network as well).
         | 
         | The transmission/distribution network is natural monopoly so
         | that needs to be regulated.
         | 
         | Generation of power can be free, to allow different techniques
         | to optimize.
         | 
         | However, the companies that sell power to consumers should be
         | regulated. There can be many of those companies but each
         | company should be required to have a plan in how to provide
         | power even in adverse conditions (and with significant
         | penalties if they fail). Then those power companies can
         | contract enough generation capacity to have redundancy and sell
         | the excess capacity to industry.
        
         | EGreg wrote:
         | That's what we said about phone companies. They were the
         | canonical example of natural monopolies and packet switching +
         | VOIP dropped the costs down to nearly zero. We videoconference
         | across continents instead of $3 a minute audio that ties up the
         | lines.
         | 
         | Energy generation and cell signals should be decentralized. We
         | have 5 transformers in the USA that -- if they go down -- the
         | entire grid goes too. An EMP or Carrington Event can take out
         | long running power lines. A Chinese "stuxnet" can sabotage
         | nuclear reactors etc.
         | 
         | See video for more info:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzMm7-j7yIY
        
         | jnsaff2 wrote:
         | Well electricity takes the lowest resistance path (read
         | shortest).
         | 
         | I have solar panels and my neighbor uses electricity to heat
         | their home. So my solar panels heat their house, but the DSO
         | gets to charge the neighbor as much as if the electricity would
         | come from across the country for transmission. If we'd move the
         | meter a bit further we could share. Plus the energy company I
         | sell to and they buy from charges something as well.
         | 
         | If we could cut out two middlemen the I would earn the same but
         | their bill would be about 25-50% smaller. Which incidentally
         | you could invest in on-prem batteries and I would use their
         | battery energy to heat my home during the night. Little
         | microgrid community. Scale that up to a neighborhood and the
         | effects start to add up quite nicely.
         | 
         | But I do agree with you that integrated grids that span large
         | areas are essential for grid stability and increase the odds of
         | clean energy is being produced at all times needed.
        
           | phicoh wrote:
           | At the end of the day, the capacity of the grid has to be
           | such that you can deal with the worst case situation. So the
           | grid has to handle the case where it is cold and your solar
           | panels are off line.
           | 
           | This means that your neighbor would still have to pay for the
           | grid even if they would directly get electricity from you.
        
           | cool_dude85 wrote:
           | You might save 25% on your bill, but put the meter any
           | farther up the line and wait for a natural disaster to hit,
           | for example. Get a quote to have you and your neighbor's
           | pole, transformer, etc. fixed up and then figure out what you
           | saved. Heck, you can probably just wait to replace you and
           | your neighbor's transformer and see.
           | 
           | Keep putting your meter further up the line, to get the
           | economies of scale needed so your microgrid can have
           | lineworkers, engineers, meter readers (for all your own
           | meters, you have to portion costs out to the individuals in
           | the grid)... congratulations, you just made a new utility
           | company.
        
         | snickmy wrote:
         | Imho, there are couple of important underlying reasons why we
         | see a centralized grid as a well functioning one.
         | 
         | It is a mature system. Having been operating in the space for
         | over 100 years, it is true that the current grid systems are
         | extremely well operated. Yes, even the Western NA and the ERCON
         | (Texas one). They have a very complex system of ancillary
         | services in places, order value of generation based on
         | conditions, etc, etc.
         | 
         | It is also true that having a multi time zones footprint (and
         | multiple geographies) allows for interesting properties. For
         | instance, Denmark energy produced through offshore wind
         | turbines is sent to Norway (equivalent to LA - SEATTLE
         | distance) to be transformed into hydro storage.
         | 
         | So why do we need decentralisation? First of all, there are
         | places where a central grid don't exists. You can think about
         | Africa, but also some rural areas of US. Having the traditional
         | grid reaching those places is simply not economical feasible.
         | Secondly, while a country level grid is operated effectively,
         | is not always efficient. There are plenty of energy
         | transformation (from DC to AC, but also different voltage
         | conversion, etc). And then there is the OMH low, and energy
         | loss through resistance of the material used to transmit it. To
         | be honest, is not that microgrids don't have loss, but there
         | are definitely less conversions, and shorter distances to
         | travel Thirdly is resiliency and robustness. If we push for
         | smaller decentralised grids, we are pushing for an extra level
         | of redundancy in the operations, for instance by increasing
         | adoption of residential/neighborhood storage solutions. If one
         | of those microgrids goes down, there are no chain reactions, or
         | tip-over effects, which today are quite common in a centrally
         | operated grid. Lastly, it's about innovations. Central grid
         | systems have made us 'lazy'. Energy prices have been going up,
         | but slowly enough that we haven't been really bothered by them
         | (boiling-the-frog effect). In markets where the traditional
         | grid was not as present/robust, innovation has moved way
         | faster. For example, is no surprise that the majority of
         | residential storage solutions companies are based in Australia,
         | where they are experimenting with multiple chemical compounds
         | (zinc, bromine, titanate, etc) as well as different
         | architectures (ie. Hydrogen)
        
           | tablespoon wrote:
           | > First of all, there are places where a central grid don't
           | exists. You can think about Africa, but also some rural areas
           | of US.
           | 
           | I'm guessing those areas in the US are more _wilderness_ than
           | "rural." The US has been working on rural electrification for
           | more than 80 years:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_Electrification_Act.
           | According to that article, 90% of farm homes were already
           | electrified _62 years ago_.
        
           | xyzzy21 wrote:
           | Centralization also produces economies of scale that
           | decentralized systems will NEVER attain.
        
       | gioscarab wrote:
       | > It needs to supports, out of the box, cloud connected or wifi
       | enabled (wireless lan connected) devices. When the physical layer
       | of devices in the home don't offer Wireless connectivity,
       | hardware communication modules needs to be adopted to bridge the
       | existing connectivity.
       | 
       | The protocol the OP wishes for exists already, it is called PJON:
       | https://github.com/gioblu/PJON
        
       | Glench wrote:
       | For anyone wanting to read more about the need for and benefits
       | of electrifying everything (the ones in the home being cars,
       | clothes dryers, stove/oven, heating/cooling, water heaters, etc)
       | check out https://rewiringamerica.org
       | 
       | They have a lot of technical details of how much carbon it would
       | reduce, how many jobs it would create, how much it will cost, and
       | how to do it on the time-scale necessary to stay below 2 degrees
       | warming. It's really inspiring.
        
         | ars wrote:
         | This relies on pie in the sky impossibilities.
         | 
         | They want rooftop solar. Where I live the roof points in the
         | wrong direction and solar would not work. It's also shaded by
         | other homes and trees.
         | 
         | In large cities with apartments rooftop solar won't even come
         | close to providing enough energy for all the apartments.
         | 
         | I will stick with my environmentally friendly gas dryer and
         | oven, and will avoid the bad for the environment electric
         | version of those.
         | 
         | Maybe when the last carbon and natural gas power plant shuts
         | down I'll consider switching, until then switching to electric
         | would harm the environment.
        
           | philips wrote:
           | I think the idea is to replace gas appliances as they break
           | with electric. Why? Buying electric replacements is an
           | investment towards decarbonization: when that last gas
           | electric plant shuts down your electric appliance is powered
           | by solar/wind/nuclear "automatically".
           | 
           | It seems like a pretty reasonable stance to take to
           | decarbonize given the 15 yearish lifespan of most appliances
           | and the urgency of the problem.
        
             | ars wrote:
             | That makes no sense. For the entire life of the electric
             | appliance you are emitting double or perhaps triple the
             | carbon dioxide of the equivalent natural gas appliance.
             | 
             | First switch the electric grid to not use natural gas and
             | only then think about changing appliances.
        
               | philips wrote:
               | Do you have a reference for that?
               | 
               | I think it is market specific depending on the makeup of
               | your areas grid.
               | 
               | As far as cost in many markets a heat pump is more cost
               | efficient today compared to electric AC and gas furnace.
               | 
               | https://www.breakthroughenergy.org/our-challenge/the-
               | green-p...
        
             | Glench wrote:
             | Modern electric appliances are often more efficient than
             | burning fossil fuels. For example, the electric motors in
             | cars are just inherently a lot more efficient than gas
             | motors, not to mention less mechanically complicated,
             | quieter, etc. (One of the reasons that electric cars today
             | already have the lowest lifetime cost of ownership.)
             | 
             | At Rewiring America they found that electrifying all
             | American cars, heating/cooling, appliances, etc would save
             | 40-50% over fossil fuel equivalents just because of the
             | inherent efficiency of electric machinery. This makes the
             | problem of decarbonization 40-50% easier.
        
           | Glench wrote:
           | Are you paid by oil companies? lol
        
       | carapace wrote:
       | Small-scale alcohol fuel production integrated into regenerative
       | agriculture. (This is different from large-scale industrial
       | ethanol production.)
       | 
       | You grow e.g. sugar beets, convert them to alcohol and some
       | byproducts (that go back into the farm as feed and fertilizer),
       | use the alcohol in generators and vehicles. You're operating
       | within your solar budget, the atoms that make up the alcohol came
       | from water and air so all your nutrients and trace minerals stay
       | on the farm and the fuel is carbon-neutral (all the carbon
       | released when you burn the fuel originally came from the air in
       | the form of carbon dioxide, not from underground fossilized
       | carbon), and it can be done with simple off-the-shelf tech that
       | has been around for literally thousands of years. You don't have
       | to scrap your ICE cars and trucks, you can modify them to work
       | with alcohol as fuel (some cars it's a software mod!) and the
       | exhaust is not poisonous.
       | 
       | - - - -
       | 
       | Here's a video of Vaclav Smil at Driva Climate Investment Meeting
       | 2019 giving a talk called "Investing in a changing climate - what
       | we can learn from historic energy transitions".
       | https://youtu.be/gkj_91IJVBk The presentation is IMO very
       | interesting, and the conclusion is sobering: "Only absolute cuts
       | in energy use would work." ( https://youtu.be/gkj_91IJVBk?t=2283
       | )
       | 
       | We use too much power. And when I say "we" I mean mostly the USA
       | but the rest of the world is ramping up rapidly. Unless there's a
       | miracle (like clean fusion generators that kids can make in the
       | garage out of chicken wire, tires, and ducktape) the only
       | physically realistic way to de-carbonize fast enough to really
       | matter is a drastic reduction in power use.
       | 
       | This is possible, and we can (I believe) maintain our quality of
       | life, but we have to start now and work quickly.
       | 
       | The good news about that is that our systems are enormously
       | wasteful so there is a lot of "low-hanging fruit" when it comes
       | to reducing power usage through increasing efficiency.
       | 
       | The bad news is we are still going to have to make changes, pay
       | for them, and yeah, make some sacrifices as well.
       | 
       | - - - -
       | 
       | In re: software to manage local grids efficiently, IMO that's not
       | interesting. It's covered already. If you need fancy real-time
       | dynamic "smart" manager software for your local micro-grids
       | you're almost certainly doing it wrong.
       | 
       | Put something like Factorio in front of your grid as a UI and
       | scenario planner and let the local kids run it. "Energy Club"
        
         | ggpsv wrote:
         | That is the hard truth that we are reluctant to accept.
         | 
         | Countries in the global north consume way too much energy, and
         | countries in the global south consume way too little. This what
         | Jason Hickel suggests in his book Less is More [0].
         | 
         | [0] https://www.jasonhickel.org/less-is-more
        
       | rini17 wrote:
       | Just a bunch of buzzwords. Is there any estimation what is the
       | overhead to ensure reliable continuous electricity supply in
       | microgrid? In some places even a week-worth amount of energy
       | storage is required, that means oversized batteries or fossil
       | fuel backup generator anyway. As compared to grid that has many
       | sources in many places and can more easily use them effectively.
        
       | ilaksh wrote:
       | Good article. But I think there needs to be something like a
       | sustainable fuel also because using batteries for long-term
       | storage does not seem feasible.
       | 
       | So things like oil from algae, digesters for methane, ammonia,
       | and ethanol are all interesting. Maybe even just buried
       | pressurized hydrogen. Maybe potential kinetic even.
        
         | melling wrote:
         | "Co2 emissions from electricity generation account for 45% of
         | world energy-related emissions."
         | 
         | We've been talking about climate change for 3 decades now.
         | 
         | I wonder how much time we could have bought ourselves if we had
         | immediately embraced nuclear power
        
           | IngoBlechschmid wrote:
           | In 2019, just about 10 % of the global electricity came from
           | nuclear power. Hence replacing fossil sources by nuclear
           | would entail large-scale construction of new nuclear
           | reactors. However, we then run into the problem of peak
           | Uranium (our reserves are thought to last for about 140 years
           | at the current rate, but this would shorten to about 14 years
           | if we increased nuclear by a factor of ten). (New kinds of
           | reactors might alleviate this problem, but they are not
           | actually available now. Of course, they might be if, as you
           | suggest, we started on this course earlier.)
           | 
           | In any case, nuclear power is today not economically viable
           | -- wind and solar are cheaper by a factor of 2 to 3 (computed
           | over the full lifecycle, but excluding the indefinite storage
           | costs of nuclear waste).
        
           | snickmy wrote:
           | Honestly quite a bit, but, unfortunately the response time of
           | Nuclear power is not the fastest available. It takes hours to
           | get the process going, or to shut it down, and unfortunately
           | an energy grid needs to have a demand-supply net of 0
           | (usually plus/minus 1.5%) or the appliances connected might
           | face some irreversible damage. This means that, while Nuclear
           | could have been a great answer to a good chunk of the energy
           | demand (sorry cannot estimate how much), we would have
           | probably still needed a lot of the traditional fossil fuel
           | source fo generation.
           | 
           | The other aspect to always keep in mind, when looking at a
           | system as mature as the energy grid is COSTS. Most likely the
           | economy of nuclear doesn't work out compared to the
           | alternatives available. (that's why policies and incentives
           | are needed to move away from fossile fuel)
        
             | adflux wrote:
             | When you try to dismiss nuclear, what alternative "clean
             | energy" can you "turn on" when experiencing increased
             | demand in energy? Can you turn on the sun or the wind?
        
               | snickmy wrote:
               | There are two aspects to consider here:
               | 
               | 1- what is the response time and the cost for alternative
               | generation: Biomass is a valid 'on demand' alternative
               | here. Geothermal + Tidal, while still intermittent are
               | more predictable (like the Sun) hence it's easier to
               | design ahead. Which is quite useful when it comes to
               | deployment You can read more here: https://courses.edx.or
               | g/assets/courseware/v1/95ea4a6731bff7e...
               | 
               | 2- what other demand-respond can be achieved/deployed
               | (i.e.: storage and demand side response). For instance
               | hydro is a very good solutions here, malten salt storage,
               | and hydrogen are upcoming technologies. More on
               | flexibility here: https://courses.edx.org/assets/coursewa
               | re/v1/416cc82fc233d20...
        
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