[HN Gopher] Outgrowing Software
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Outgrowing Software
        
       Author : nreece
       Score  : 186 points
       Date   : 2021-03-19 10:16 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.ben-evans.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.ben-evans.com)
        
       | jeremydeanlakey wrote:
       | > tech will change everything, but once the dust has settled the
       | questions that matter will mostly be retail questions, not tech
       | questions
       | 
       | I'm not disagreeing but how will we know the dust has settled?
       | 
       | I might have thought the dust had settled with music when you
       | could download mp3s. But now streaming services are the thing.
        
       | michael-ax wrote:
       | Software ate the world and "the important questions are somewhere
       | else."
       | 
       | what do you think those are, and were they not always?
        
       | Joeri wrote:
       | We always seem to look at tech as if it is a thing unto itself,
       | instead of a catalyst and enabler. Every industry is transformed
       | by technology, but it remains fundamentally about the same thing.
       | There was still a transportation industry after the move from
       | horses to cars, and there is still a music industry after the
       | move from physical media to digital downloads. If you don't
       | understand the industry you are in, it doesn't matter how good
       | your technology is. That doesn't mean things need to be done in
       | the same way. What is transformative about software eating the
       | world is the ability to bring distribution costs to zero,
       | enabling radically different models. Only a deep understanding of
       | an industry allows for a successful technology transition.
       | 
       | For example, for me what is interesting about autonomous vehicles
       | is not the convenience, but the transportation models enabled by
       | a radically lower cost per travelled kilometer. Those who make
       | the software for the autonomous vehicles will surely succeed, but
       | so will those who understand what transportation models become
       | possible using that software. I'm not sure whether being a car
       | maker is an advantage or disadvantage, it depends on how well the
       | car maker understands the transportation industry. For this
       | reason I'm also not clear whether Tesla is relevant to the future
       | of autonomous vehicles. It seems unlikely we're going to drive
       | around in similar ways as today, just with a computer at the
       | wheel. Tesla seems to be working towards improving today's model
       | of car ownership and usage by making nicer cars. That's an old
       | world model. Whatever the future of personal transportation is,
       | it is not that.
        
         | sudhirj wrote:
         | This is why I think SpaceX and Starlink are bigger businesses
         | than Tesla. I already have an electric car, and it's made by
         | Hyundai, and they've been better at making cars since Elon was
         | is diapers. Tesla is a catalyst, not the final state of the
         | system.
         | 
         | Those who can charge a toll on the network, though, are in a
         | more interesting position. It's not clear that anyone other
         | than SpaceX is going to be able to build rockets cheap enough
         | to maintain an Internet constellation any time soon. It's
         | certainly likely that others will try, but it's possible that
         | SpaceX will have the final word on cheap space flight, at least
         | for a generation.
         | 
         | To the point of the article, the real beneficiaries will be
         | those who understand the consequences of humanity now having
         | the option to spread out at low density, and due to autonomous
         | driving and global connectivity, not seeing a drop in the
         | quality of physical and intellectual life.
        
         | bob33212 wrote:
         | Once you have the AI experience and expertise, and have the
         | battery technology and the experience building factories at
         | gigascale, you can easily pivot away from the sedan/suv form
         | factor and build delivery vehicles or whatever makes sense in
         | the future.
        
       | AlchemistCamp wrote:
       | This piece has an odd conception of technology as a thing that
       | transforms an industry once and then screeches to a halt.
       | 
       | Technology is _continuing_ to transform each industry it
       | mentioned. Retail is rapidly becoming automated to a degree that
       | would have looked like science fiction a decade ago, Tesla 's
       | battery technology continues to improve, video games continue to
       | eclipse the movie industry.
       | 
       | Speaking of the movie industry, it's very likely that if that day
       | ever does come when Tom Cruise actually looks his age, the on-
       | film Tom Cruise will not. Young actors of future generations will
       | face competition from AI-generated likenesses of the stars of the
       | past generation.
       | 
       | Tech isn't close to done with _any_ industry.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Software ate the world. And now Apple is eating software.
        
       | grey-area wrote:
       | Software is eating the world meant software will permeate and
       | govern everything, every thing and every industry will be
       | programmable, the world will be full of objects which are linked
       | at a distance and change behaviour regularly, perhaps even with
       | intents of their own. The combination of ML and robotics will
       | spread software even farther into our physical world.
       | 
       | The author compares software to consultants, disruptive but not
       | producing meaningful change, I don't agree with this - industries
       | are being changed forever or replaced, but the transformation
       | isn't done yet. The old intermediaries who used to decide what we
       | consume are not dead yet but I think that power will be diffused
       | across society as the cost of production falls and new mediums
       | emerge.
       | 
       | Retail - we're only partway through a transformation but big
       | retailers simply have no reason to exist in a world where you can
       | have a package delivered same day to your door from a warehouse.
       | 
       | TV - this will be replaced by other screens which encourage
       | participation (live chat etc), and self-production (youtube),
       | that's not yet complete.
       | 
       | Publishing - the entire knowledge of humanity is available online
       | for the first time, most of it free, and people can publish their
       | thoughts at zero cost. This is a remarkable revolution with
       | profound impacts still reverberating. Gatekeepers like academic
       | publishers are increasingly untenable and out of touch but are
       | not gone yet.
       | 
       | Music - democratised as the means of production are cheaper but
       | the incumbents are not dead yet, however their position is
       | becoming untenable.
       | 
       | IMO we're not even halfway through this revolution which is
       | comparable in scope and time to the industrial revolution.
        
         | gpanders wrote:
         | One downside to lowering the barrier of entry in all of these
         | areas is the lack of any kind of quality control or content
         | curation. Sure, anyone can publish their thoughts online for
         | free, which I agree is a good thing for openness and freedom,
         | but not everyone is equally qualified or competent. It becomes
         | increasingly difficult to sift through the mountains of sub-
         | standard garbage to find things worth consuming (NB I dislike
         | the word "consuming" in this context, but I don't know of a
         | better catch-all term).
         | 
         | Now sure, the old gatekeepers weren't perfect at this either
         | and they published a lot of garbage too. But I think this is
         | something that needs to be discussed as content creation
         | becomes increasingly democratized.
        
           | grey-area wrote:
           | Completely agree as popularity != quality and curation
           | without cornering the market does have a lot of value. When I
           | said gatekeepers I was thinking of academic publishers vs sci
           | hub for example, or non-fiction publishers who operate on
           | selling big names rather than quality.
        
         | dalbasal wrote:
         | >> but I think that power will be diffused across society as
         | the cost of production falls
         | 
         | I feel like this is the kind of optimistic sentiment, expressed
         | over the years, that this essay is countering.
         | 
         | Empirically, we've seen the opposite. Yes, "software ate the
         | world." But no, it hasn't diffused anything. Once upon a time,
         | it was expensive to press records or print books. Someone had
         | to bankroll it, and so record labels and book publishers
         | became. What actually happened when music and print digitized?
         | Did they go to a flat, federated, diffused or disintermediated
         | structure. No. They got _more_ centralized.
         | 
         | Unaffiliated musicians and TV/film makers work for the youtube
         | or spotify. They have no control or influence over those
         | companies, and have no power. In fact, they have less power
         | than before because _they_ , unlike the platforms, _are_
         | decentralised.
         | 
         | >> Music - democratised as the means of production are cheaper
         | but the incumbents are not dead yet, however their position is
         | becoming untenable.
         | 
         | Untenable in _theory._ Sure, there is no need for someone to
         | bankroll record pressing or book printing anymore. Hello zero
         | marginal cost abundance. Yet, labels and publishers still
         | exist. The industry structure is more centralised and more
         | intermediated. Above labels /publishers are amazon, netflix,
         | spotify, apple or google.... the new top of the pyramid.
         | 
         | OOH, we can believe our own 2004 speculative reasoning about
         | digital economics... and what is or isn't tenable. OTOH, we can
         | look at reality in 2021 and accept the prevailing trends.
         | Youtube, spotify, itunes, amazon, netflix and future monopolies
         | _are_ what abundance looks like, not Wikimedia, Linux or the
         | www.
         | 
         | We were wrong. Abundance has not impacted economic structures
         | the way we expected. We have what we had before, but now with a
         | tech monopoly at the top.
        
           | grey-area wrote:
           | I disagree that music and publishing have become more
           | centralised.
           | 
           | I have seen the death of the book publishing industry first
           | hand - from the outside it might appear relatively unscathed,
           | from the inside it has been hollowed out and is untenable.
           | Publishers are clinging on but increasingly irrelevant and
           | their margins are non-existent, which pushes their quality
           | down, which undermines their business model further. They
           | will survive another generation though on nostalgia and with
           | steadily declining sales. They simply don't have a viable
           | business model any more.
           | 
           | Sure we're not living in the utopian future some imagined but
           | that does not mean the transformation was not profound and
           | ongoing.
           | 
           | The transformation is far from over in those that were
           | vulnerable to the internet and many industries have only just
           | started being consumed.
        
             | bregma wrote:
             | It's true that content publishers (music, books, video,
             | academic papers, news, software, etc) are all being
             | eliminated by the current disruption. The problem is that
             | they added real value to the chain, and that value is also
             | being eliminated.
             | 
             | The current trend towards heaping massive quantities of
             | low-value undifferentiated product in a heap at the feet of
             | the consuming masses is wonderful if your metric is
             | quantity. By eliminating discoverability, accessibility,
             | quality, and curation you can massively increase the
             | quantitative choice of consumers. In theory the cost
             | difference is either saved by the consumer or passed on to
             | the creator.
             | 
             | In addition, eliminating the idea of capitalizing
             | investment in content creation means far less investment in
             | content creation. The marginal cost of copying is virtually
             | free, but the cost of creating the first instance to be
             | copied has not decreased.
             | 
             | I suspect what we're seeing is the first wave of
             | restructuring: tearing down the old to create a vast swamp
             | of crap. I expect a second wave to come in which the vacuum
             | created by tearing down the old will be filled by new
             | publishers and their ilk to provide the services of
             | discoverability, acessibility, quality, and curation and
             | the capitalization of content creation.
        
               | dalbasal wrote:
               | I agree broadly, and I think we both agree with the
               | author's main point... life goes on.
               | 
               | But, I think we need to be careful with our expectations.
               | Currently, the biggest factor determining what content
               | gets created is the preferences or MO of a handful of big
               | guys.
               | 
               | Netflix is like the old world. Executives. Deals. Do
               | Netflix insiders still like sexposition or do they think
               | it's corny now? It's a lot like selling a show to a cable
               | channel. On Youtube, a minute of news equals a minute of
               | fart jokes and subscribers are important. That's _their_
               | ethic.
               | 
               | The future isn't really about what "content" will do..
               | it's about what youtube or amazon will do. These
               | companies are not neutral conduits of consumer
               | preferences, whether or not they make decisions
               | algorithmically.
        
             | dalbasal wrote:
             | I see the author is here, so I feel kind of weird defending
             | the position for him. What the heck though (sorry
             | benedict)...
             | 
             | The point isn't that technology hasn't had an impact, or
             | that software didn't really "eat the world." Old businesses
             | and industries do have to adjust, and sometimes fail.
             | That's not the point either. The point is "what comes
             | after?" or rather, "how do these industries look now?" The
             | answer to that is closer to "same as it was in 2005" than
             | it is to "what we expected would happen in 2005."
             | 
             | IIRCC self publishing is still at 5%-10%. How does book
             | publishing work today, 13 and 30 years after kindle and the
             | wordwideweb were digitised publishing? A writer sits around
             | wondering who they need to shag to get a publishing deal.
             | If they're lucky, they get a publishing deal, like in 1988.
             | Then Amazon sells it.
             | 
             | Maybe publishing is going through a technology induced lean
             | years. Maybe a lot of them will go out of business. News
             | publishing has gone through crisis moments, where they beg
             | politicians to make Google and FB share some ad revenue
             | back with them. What has not happened is diffusion,
             | disintermediation or somesuch. Creators or consumers aren't
             | more empowered. From the outside, it's business as usual
             | and the outside view is what counts.
             | 
             | I remember Seth Godin's take on the kindle. At first he was
             | excited. New medium, new message. Then he was disappointed.
             | Digital books would cost the same. That meant the goal was
             | to keep everything the same. There would be no penny-per
             | page business model. No nonfiction equivalent of a short
             | story. Amazon would be chasing deals with publishers, not
             | opening up to new people. Jeff was right. Seth was wrong.
             | 
             | I share a lot of your sensibilities. But when reality
             | contradicts theory, we need to adapt the theory.
             | 
             | The same is true of most large industries touched by
             | digitization. Some (like publishing) had tumultuous
             | transitions. Some (like banking) had pretty cushy
             | transitions. In almost no cases has "economic untenable"
             | logic proved out. Banks have not evolved into lean, mostly
             | software, organisations. They've gotten bigger and hairier.
             | Is this "tenable?" Maybe not, but it is the norm.
        
               | grey-area wrote:
               | OK I see where we disagree I think.
               | 
               | You (and the author) think this transformation is over, I
               | think it's just starting.
               | 
               |  _IIRCC self publishing is still at 5%-10%. How does book
               | publishing work today, 13 and 30 years after kindle and
               | the wordwideweb were digitised publishing? A writer sits
               | around wondering who they need to shag to get a
               | publishing deal. If they 're lucky, they get a publishing
               | deal, like in 1988. Then Amazon sells it._
               | 
               | This is not an accurate summary no. Today an author
               | doesn't _need_ a publishing deal to get in front of
               | millions of readers in a way they most definitely did in
               | 1988. They can set up a web page and sell their book
               | themselves (and many are doing so). Just to pick one
               | example, this book is self-published[1] and has its own
               | website, on Amazon - Publisher : CreateSpace Independent
               | Publishing Platform. There are certainly problems, Amazon
               | is a predatory monopoly which will suck the margins out
               | of any successful seller on its platform, but the entire
               | industry is being shaken and self-publishing is growing
               | in importance. Many of the old publishers see this coming
               | but have no idea what to do about it, they 're either
               | watching their business slowly die or moving online
               | selling curated content and leaving books behind.
               | 
               | To pick another example, video, channels like youtube and
               | twitch have lead to the rise of internet celebrities not
               | chosen by any producer or channel, but who set up their
               | own stall and sell themselves. Gaming channels like steam
               | or mobile have led to a boom in indie game studios and
               | small games. There are certainly excesses and mistakes
               | involved in that, but it is an entirely new mode of
               | production enabled by the internet, and again I think
               | it's in its infancy. It's not a fad which is going away -
               | broadcast TV itself is going away and being replaced by a
               | more interactive mode, it just doesn't know it yet.
               | 
               | So I don't agree the information revolution is over, it's
               | only just beginning and will probably take about 50 more
               | years at least to play out fully. We only just started
               | carrying powerful internet connected computers in our
               | pockets about a decade ago; the implications of that
               | alone are far-reaching.
               | 
               | [0] http://momtestbook.com
        
               | dalbasal wrote:
               | Maybe we're getting closer but I don't think "You (and
               | the author) think this transformation is over" is
               | accurate. There is no pre/post. Change is continuous.
               | Business is tumultuous.
               | 
               | Speaking for myself, I think _over /not-over_ is part
               | illusion to shake. It is part of the theory, which has
               | failed. A pre-digital world and a digital world... where
               | our first principles economics will finally play out.
               | That day is not coming, marginal cost economics is not
               | going to play to the "logical" conclusion.
               | 
               | There is a real reality out there. In it, digitisation of
               | content has _consistently_ led to monopoly. Google
               | produce the world 's most popular operating system _and_
               | web browser just to support their search monopoly. They
               | have no intention of being a neutral pipe.
               | 
               | To get grandiose... I feel like we are/were misguided by
               | deterministic thinking. We see the possibilities of
               | digitization, and assume they're inevitable. They aren't.
               | They were opportunities, but they were never just going
               | to manifest themselves.
               | 
               | The WWW was/is free because TBL made it that way. We
               | believed that openness was an inevitability. Reality has
               | schooled us.
        
         | TehMrSkinner wrote:
         | Typically the encouraged participation of Twitch and YouTube is
         | a mechanism to strengthen para-social relationships people make
         | with "content creators" which I don't think is a good thing, if
         | more and more people aren't making friends and building
         | communities around them in favour of their "friends" and
         | "communities" online then they're going to continue being at
         | the mercy of the established order (whether that be Governments
         | or Corporations) as there's no real unity in an online
         | collective and there's no meaningful action a disparate group
         | of people can do to effect change in a single place.
         | 
         | On your publishing point it seems to me we're just abandoning
         | quality control and rigour under the guise of begrudging
         | gatekeeping (sometimes the gate does need to guarded) and
         | whilst I agree that the subjectivity of art means more people
         | being able to make and share music is probably a good thing
         | (you can't definitively say there's "bad music") the same can't
         | be said for information.
         | 
         | Perhaps I'm too cynical but a large aspect of the past 20 years
         | in software proliferation I don't like is the idea that we
         | should just build things consequences be damned (Mark
         | Zuckerburg especially has this belief) as we're never then
         | taking the time to properly reflect on if there's a way to
         | prevent harm up front _or_ if the harm produced can 't be
         | mitigated maybe we _shouldn 't_ build these things in the first
         | place. A rhetorical but interesting question is how many
         | relationships do we think were ruined by Facebook? How much
         | dysmorphia and self-loathing caused by Instagram?* How much
         | hate spread by YouTube and Twitter?
         | 
         | *(These two I find particularly interesting as we weren't even
         | part way through uncovering the ill effects of unrealistic
         | beauty standards set by Hollywood and the advertising industry
         | over the last 50 years before along came these websites/apps
         | whose solution was to allow you to airbrush and manipulate your
         | own life and set your own unrealistic standards. There's now a
         | generation and more to come who have just grown up with this
         | being the way the world is).
        
           | grey-area wrote:
           | There are certainly a lot of bad aspects to the popularity
           | contest which is the current internet. Sorry if I sounded too
           | panglossian about recent changes, but I think people overlook
           | just how profoundly our lives have been and are being
           | transformed.
        
         | benedictevans wrote:
         | Thanks for reading. However, that's not what Marc meant by
         | 'software eating the world' and it's not how I described
         | consultants.
        
           | grey-area wrote:
           | Thanks for the article, it was an interesting read.
           | 
           | Genuinely interested, what do you think he meant? What do you
           | feel the phrase means today? I read it as software will
           | transform and replace many industries and physical things but
           | will go back and find that essay again now - perhaps it's the
           | bit about software permeating the physical world you object
           | to? It was a really interesting phrase that I think resonated
           | with a lot of people, so perhaps I read into it lots that
           | wasn't there.
           | 
           | Re consultants, I was referring to this bit:
           | 
           |  _There's an old joke that consultants are like seagulls -
           | they fly in, make lots of noise, mess everything up and then
           | fly out. That's pretty much what tech has done to media
           | industries..._
           | 
           | It seemed to me your thesis was that software is done
           | transforming these industries and the only interesting
           | problems are industry specific and not related to software? I
           | think there is still a lot of change left to go.
        
       | lifeisstillgood wrote:
       | I am going to bang on about this again, but imo software is a new
       | form of literacy. Literacy of employees and customers
       | transform(s/ed) all industries but we don't talk about the
       | literacy department or literacy investments in corporations.
       | 
       | (It's what annoys me about low-code solutions - it's like trying
       | to write your novel by linking pre-drawn cartoon squares together
       | in innovative ways.)
       | 
       | You cannot compensate for lack of literacy in a company or
       | society. Same for software.
       | 
       | In short some companies and some societies will be software
       | literate and have time to focus on the next problems as ben talks
       | about here - while others are stuck in the transition period. But
       | they must go through the transition period - having good answers
       | to "publisher questions" won't help if you don't have good
       | answers to API questions
       | 
       | Software skills will remain a wage distinction for some time
        
         | lifeisstillgood wrote:
         | Extra ranting: It's worth noting that there are a _lot_ of
         | _businesses_ that also  "do not fit in one persons head".
         | Anyone who has spent time in a large organisation will be
         | constantly coming across processes that seem designed solely to
         | prevent anything happening and knowing how to get around it is
         | a hidden mystery. I am sure there are billion dollar
         | departments in my company I have no idea exist. And it's
         | dubious that at any sufficiently large organisation it is truly
         | understood by upper management - almost every corporate failure
         | can be attributed to something like "Yes of course I know how
         | engines work, we can move the forwards quite easily"
        
         | fukmbas wrote:
         | Coders are becoming dime a dozen. I would tell future
         | generations to steer clear and specialize. There's a lot more
         | to it than programming
        
         | klelatti wrote:
         | Successful "tech" companies need to have a (relatively) small
         | number of people who understand the possibilities that software
         | open up for their business model.
         | 
         | They have a number of people who are skilled at managing the
         | software and product development process and a (potentially
         | large) number of people who are skilled at software
         | development.
         | 
         | Seems to me to be very different to the notion of literacy
         | which is a set of skills that essentially every employee needs
         | to have.
        
         | Qwertious wrote:
         | >I am going to bang on about this again, but imo software is a
         | new form of literacy.
         | 
         | The four Rs: Reading, writing, 'rithmetic, R.
         | 
         | ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(programming_language) )
        
           | enobrev wrote:
           | RAWR.
           | 
           | Reading
           | 
           | Arithmetic
           | 
           | Writing
           | 
           | R
        
           | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
           | Did you make that up? I love it.
        
             | Qwertious wrote:
             | Yes, I made it up just now.
        
         | hypermachine wrote:
         | Low code isn't inherently that bad as long as it offers a way
         | to integrate with traditional code. Microsoft Excel is
         | tremendously succesful in this area.
        
           | datavirtue wrote:
           | Low code isn't bad until you try to use a lot of it just like
           | OOP isn't bad until you use too much of it. There is always a
           | temptation that leads one to use too much of these. We have
           | had low-code visual software design for decades. SQL Server
           | Integration Services comes to mind. It does not solve the
           | core problem. Maintainability. The last thing software needs
           | is an invitation to more people that aren't yet aware of the
           | problems of maintenance.
           | 
           | There is not an extremely high barrier to coding. That is not
           | a problem. There is a huge barrier to learning how to produce
           | maintainable and adaptive systems and that barrier is only
           | made worse with low-code tools and services.
        
             | jgalentine007 wrote:
             | I worked with adding some functionality to a Microsoft
             | PowerApp Covid office tracker template. Having to navigate
             | the GUI for everything was quite cumbersome.
             | 
             | Although it was only two function calls in two places, it
             | seems that every time the template is updated, the calls
             | will have to be added back. Instead of doing a merge in
             | Git, you will now have to remember all the navigation steps
             | to add the changes each time. I don't want to think about
             | what happens if you have more than one person working on an
             | app.
        
               | hypermachine wrote:
               | We have automatic version control for our platform, give
               | us a try when we launch.
        
         | jamesgreenleaf wrote:
         | There's a corollary with illiteracy but for mathematics, called
         | innumeracy. Perhaps there's another for software, which is
         | essentially a language of logic. It could be called illogicity.
         | You could make up your own term if you don't like that one.
         | 
         | Literature is not just spelling and grammar, and mathematics is
         | not just numbers and equations. Likewise, software is not just
         | code and computers. Each of these are ways of thinking, methods
         | of communicating, realms to explore, and systems for organizing
         | the world.
         | 
         | I would not be surprised if there are other systems like these
         | which we have not yet discovered or invented. At least, I hope
         | that there are.
        
           | UncleMeat wrote:
           | I think it is easy to see programming as the language of
           | logic. But this is what I've observed as my wife has learned
           | to use python, javascript, and R for her work.
           | 
           | The _huge_ majority of errors have nothing to do with
           | inability to think logically. Instead it is  "I'm getting
           | some incomprehensible fucking error message from conda" and
           | it turns out the root cause is that her machine has multiple
           | python installations and the places where dependencies end up
           | installed are all fucked up and the solution has nothing to
           | do with programming.
           | 
           | The second most common source of errors are "weird language
           | things". Something can be expressed perfectly reasonably if
           | you were to read it as pseudo-code but weird edge cases cause
           | problems. Consider "==" vs "===" in JS. All sorts of fun
           | issues there and it isn't really failing to understand "the
           | language of logic" that causes people to bash their heads
           | into a wall until somebody says "oh, JS has multiple ways of
           | doing equality and you just need to know that".
           | 
           | The existing software ecosystems are nowhere near ready to
           | support people who just want to think logically about
           | problems and algorithms. It is just too filled with "wtf does
           | PC_LOAD_LETTER mean".
        
             | fossuser wrote:
             | Yeah - I think there's lots of bad tooling, but a lot of it
             | does come down to logic.
             | 
             | Once people realize they're not doing something 'wrong'
             | really and that it's just the tooling that's bad - they can
             | start to understand that troubleshooting and debugging is
             | _most_ of what we 're doing. Being good at troubleshooting
             | and debugging is largely logic (isolating variables,
             | testing, thinking about what it could be, knowing what to
             | ask/search). It's why the dev joke of 'it works on my
             | laptop' is funny.
             | 
             | The narrow scope of solving some explicit programmatic
             | problem is one area where logic is needed, but debugging
             | things is the more common use. Lots of historical things
             | people had to debug are past that tooling stage and now
             | mostly 'just work' (like compilers). Lots of newer
             | technology is not close to that yet.
             | 
             | The analogy to literacy I think is a good one.
             | 
             | I wrote a little about this here:
             | https://zalberico.com/essay/2020/04/19/how-to-become-a-
             | hacke...
        
             | jamesgreenleaf wrote:
             | I can see what you're getting at here, and perhaps
             | "language of logic" is not the most accurate way to
             | describe what software is. Maybe "language of complexity"
             | or "language of systems" or something else. Someone could
             | come up with better terms or metaphors here.
             | 
             | The difficulties you describe, however, assuming they
             | aren't being caused by flaws or bugs, are part of the
             | "language" we're talking about. I think one of your
             | assumptions here is that logic is simple. That's true to
             | begin with, but the software systems we build are usually
             | towering arcologies of logic, with all manner of intricate,
             | sometimes counter-intuitive details. A single detail, when
             | examined by itself, is relatively easy to understand, but
             | when taken together, they form a serious challenge for any
             | human mind to grapple with. I think you could make
             | comparisons to sprawling works of literature or advanced
             | forms of mathematics, where the bits and pieces can be
             | grasped, but the number of pieces, and the connections
             | between them are often too difficult to see all at once.
        
             | notriddle wrote:
             | It's not like English and algebraic notation exist in the
             | Platonic perfect state for their respective domains.
        
               | UncleMeat wrote:
               | Sure, but I've never seen somebody try to read a book
               | just to find that the book is written upside down and
               | only reveals itself during the full moon.
               | 
               | How would somebody teach my wife to deal with a weird
               | dependency error message? It took me several hours to
               | figure out. Googling error messages accomplished nothing.
               | There was no reasoning really behind it. Just unique
               | problems with python dependency management. There aren't
               | really transferrable skills here that would empower
               | somebody to rapidly figure this sort of thing out if they
               | just rearranged how their thought process worked. You
               | either know the incantations or you don't.
        
               | megous wrote:
               | Actually there are general techniques to troubleshooting.
               | Like increasing observability of the system by increasing
               | logging levels or via a debugger, figuring out expected
               | behavior and looking for unexpected things, etc.
               | 
               | Here you'd just enable some way to see the dependency
               | resolution process in more detail. What files are
               | touched, etc. It can be as simple as running strace with
               | an 'open' syscall filter, and you'd see some unexpected
               | paths being touched, perhaps. But there are many ways to
               | achieve the same.
               | 
               | How would she know about strace? It's just one of the
               | tools you get to learn if you approach problems from the
               | a generic "how'd I make what this program is doing
               | visible to me?" when it's not doing what I expect. There
               | are a ton of tools you learn if you approach problems
               | this way over time, instead of searching online for error
               | messages first.
        
               | pcthrowaway wrote:
               | There's also workarounds as an alternative to
               | troubleshooting.
               | 
               | Just change the CLI command that's failing to a function
               | which `docker run`s the right thing with the rest of the
               | params passed and be done.
               | 
               | But this assumes you know enough of your shell language
               | to do that, and there will likely be things to
               | troubleshoot there.
               | 
               | I've managed to avoid learning enough about OS internals
               | to get a good handle on 'deeper' ways to troubleshoot
               | like what you talk about with strace. Know any good
               | resources to learn?
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | alcaide-mor wrote:
           | Could that word be computacy?
        
           | bob1029 wrote:
           | I like this perspective.
           | 
           | It also hints at a potential resolution - Pull the team away
           | from the technology for a little while so they can focus on
           | the abstract problem domain.
           | 
           | Most developers probably don't have the capacity to think
           | about shiny new technology while simultaneously running traps
           | on the fundamental business domain abstractions. Taking time
           | away from the computer to think about the problem you are
           | _actually_ trying to solve is a big deal. Many just get
           | caught up fighting their own tools and lose sight.
           | 
           | One simple trick - If you are not yet at a point where you
           | can cleanly model your problem domain in terms of SQL tables
           | & relations (even if you don't intend to use this
           | technology), you have absolutely no business touching the
           | rest of the effort. There are notions that you can actually
           | have a provably-correct model of your domain at a certain
           | level. 3NF/BCNF schemas have fundamental mathematical
           | implications that are very powerful. Entire classes of
           | accidental complexity can be obviated with a clean domain
           | model.
        
             | lifeisstillgood wrote:
             | Yes. I think it is a Brooks quote that is something like
             | "don't show me your code - I won't understand it, show me
             | your database and I will understand your application."
             | 
             | Simple robust Data structures with complicated code acting
             | on it.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Every business person with the money can hire a bunch of coders
         | to do the actual work. So I don't think "software literacy" is
         | or will be a thing.
        
           | junon wrote:
           | Typical HN crowd upset that people don't agree with their
           | technomancer future and down voting anyone who says software
           | engineering is hard.
           | 
           | You're right, in the same way why math literacy still isn't a
           | thing.
        
         | Wowfunhappy wrote:
         | > It's what annoys me about low-code solutions - it's like
         | trying to write your novel by linking pre-drawn cartoon squares
         | together in innovative ways.
         | 
         | There's a reason societies which switched from hieroglyphics to
         | alphabets have higher literacy rates--the best way to promote
         | widespread literacy is to make it easy and accessible.
         | 
         | Before the pandemic shut us down, I was a volunteer teacher at
         | Girls Who Code. We used Scratch, which I was a bit skeptical of
         | at first, but then I watched the ten-year-old students struggle
         | to type a sentence at three words per minute. In Scratch that
         | didn't matter--they could create all sorts of programs.
         | 
         | In a different context, while I'm not personally a fan of
         | complex spreadsheets, they seem to be effective for a lot of
         | people, who I suspect would otherwise struggle with Python.
         | 
         | To be sure, Scratch and Excel are still much slower and
         | clunkier than "real", text-based languages. But I'm not
         | convinced that typing words into a text editor is the ultimate
         | way to create software. And even if it is, we've got to find a
         | way to make this stuff easier, because I don't want to live in
         | a society where a handful of elites are able to make computers
         | do their bidding, and everyone else is left to consume the
         | scraps offered from on high.
        
           | fossuser wrote:
           | Agreed - many tasks can be done with more accessible tools.
           | 
           | It's why Excel is so popular.
           | 
           | It's why modal editors suck for the majority of humanity. For
           | most people and most applications, WYSIWYG is fine and allows
           | people to use the computer to do their work.
           | 
           | We'll still need the more sophisticated tooling for a long
           | time, but even that becomes more niche once it gets really
           | good. Most developers are not writing assembly or machine
           | code. Layers of abstraction can and do work, but every time a
           | new one comes it's often viewed skeptically.
           | 
           | Nocode is a little different in the way that excel is
           | limiting too, but that doesn't mean it can still solve a lot
           | of the problem space for a lot of people if done well.
           | Introducing young kids to programming seems like a reasonable
           | place for it.
           | 
           | I think AI assisted programming will be interesting, both in
           | the form of Karpathy's blog post:
           | https://karpathy.medium.com/software-2-0-a64152b37c35 and
           | also just to assist alongisde the dev. GPT-3 style, "center
           | this on the page" -> correct CSS. Fast feedback via NLP here
           | will be really interesting and helpful. We used to have to
           | look up stuff in books, then there was google and stack
           | overflow, it'd be nice to be able to ask random questions and
           | get the answer instantly in code in front of you.
           | 
           | This is a great related blog post if you haven't read it:
           | http://worrydream.com/LearnableProgramming/
        
             | lifeisstillgood wrote:
             | No.
             | 
             | Excel is a local optimum - a hill on the way up the
             | mountain.
             | 
             | Yes, scratch and excel are good solutions for the issue of
             | "it takes years to become software literate and I have six
             | week evening classes to fit it in, what shall i teach"
             | 
             | but that's the answer to the wrong question.
        
               | fossuser wrote:
               | Not everyone who drives a car needs to be able to rebuild
               | the engine.
               | 
               | Not everyone who writes a video game needs to write the
               | physics engine.
               | 
               | Not everyone who needs to analyze a dataset needs to
               | write SQL.
               | 
               | Abstractions and tools exist at levels that provide value
               | to people solving problems. The more accessible the tools
               | are, the wider the net of people that can leverage them.
               | 
               | A minority of voices can loudly yell in a corner about
               | how everyone needs to use modal editors and write their
               | own assembly while the rest of the world moves on and
               | ignores them.
        
               | pcthrowaway wrote:
               | I think saying Excel & co are just shortcuts to do the
               | same thing worse, is a bit uncharitable. I have very
               | little experience with spreadsheets and a fair bit of
               | experience with imperative programming (I guess
               | declarative too from SQL, which is actually quite
               | transferable to gSheets formulas).
               | 
               | I was sorting out a spreadsheet which I could use to keep
               | track of income events and display information on taxes
               | at different brackets, running totals for income & tax,
               | capital gains events, and spent about 3-4 hours working
               | on it, even though the formulas were all new to me.
               | 
               | The same thing would have taken me far longer as a python
               | program.
               | 
               | Spreadsheets are really just the perfect way to operate
               | on tabular data and display tabular data that has been
               | transformed through a cascading series of transformation
               | functions. I don't think it's possible to do this as
               | efficiently through imperative programming.
        
           | sombremesa wrote:
           | > There's a reason societies which switched from
           | hieroglyphics to alphabets have higher literacy rates--the
           | best way to promote widespread literacy is to make it easy
           | and accessible.
           | 
           | Source? This seems to have a lot more to do with socio-
           | economics and politics than linguistics.
        
             | Wowfunhappy wrote:
             | I see them as all tied together. Rising literacy rates
             | increase standards of living. Rising standards of living
             | leave time to learn to read. More people reading creates
             | pressure to make reading easier. And so the cycle
             | continues.
        
         | mgummelt wrote:
         | The novel analogy is the right one, but it works against your
         | point. Everyone needs to write. Few need to write novels. Just
         | like increasingly everyone needs to write software, but few
         | need to be engineers.
        
           | lifeisstillgood wrote:
           | Everyone can write a novel. A lot of HNers have a word count
           | in the (short) novel length without worrying.
           | 
           | I think the issue is most software developers are paid full
           | time to write. Pay me full time to write novels and you can
           | have an endless supply of low quality Dan Brown.
           | 
           | I think the novel analogy is useful - there are an awful lot
           | of novels being published (even more self published). Most
           | are drivel ... unfortunately similar to the quality
           | distribution of software.
           | 
           | Very few people and less organisations are capable of
           | consistently great writing.
           | 
           | In my view we should be aiming for seeing what makes
           | something like the Washington Post _work_. This is a
           | agglomeration of skilled people who manage to write a
           | coherent trilogy of novels every day.
           | 
           | Being literate is only the first challenge - building
           | literate organisations is a much harder one.
        
         | MaxBarraclough wrote:
         | > software is a new form of literacy
         | 
         | Do you mean basic skills in using a desktop computer, or do you
         | mean software engineering skills?
         | 
         | > we don't talk about the literacy department
         | 
         | Software development is a skilled craft, and will remain so.
        
           | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
           | I use the motor vehicle metaphor:
           | 
           | Software literacy is equivalent to: being able to drive a
           | car, fuel it, decode the various dashboard lights when they
           | blink, maybe change a tire and check the oil.
           | 
           | Software engineering is: Being a car mechanic.
           | 
           | So is it very useful to society if the vast majority of
           | adults are able to drive. It is not important or worth the
           | effort to have a majority of adults as fully trained car
           | mechanics. Although it is good to have "on ramps" for those
           | with the aptitude and inclination to pick it up, as a useful
           | and paying job.
           | 
           | It is _now_ useful to society if the vast majority of adults
           | are able to use a maps app, a messaging app, a word
           | processor, maybe a formula in spreadsheet, calendar a zoom
           | call and unmute themselves, have email and can distinguish a
           | phishing email from real bank communications, ignore fake
           | news on social media, etc.
           | 
           | The difference between a formula in a spreadsheet and full-
           | time coding is one of degree, not kind; but you could say the
           | same about changing a tire vs. a full vehicle overhaul.
        
             | alisonatwork wrote:
             | I used this analogy myself the other day, and it's how I
             | often explain software development to people who have been
             | led to believe that computers are some deep mystery that
             | could never be understood by the common man.
             | 
             | However there is one important difference between software
             | developers and car mechanics, and that is that our work is
             | in cyberspace so it can be effortlessly duplicated and sold
             | a million times over. Car mechanics operate in meatspace,
             | so in order to get paid they need to keep on fixing cars. A
             | software developer could fix just one virtual car and then
             | keep earning money forever thanks to intellectual property
             | laws. It doesn't seem like equal pay for equal work.
             | 
             | Thinking about it this way has led me to become more
             | skeptical of intellectual property laws. Software
             | development isn't especially more difficult than any other
             | skill, but we are disproportionately rewarded for it due
             | arbitrary legal constructs. It seems like the industry has
             | a vested interest in giving the impression that what we do
             | is impossibly complicated. If more people realized the
             | truth, there might be a stronger call to abolish or at
             | least reduce the terms of copyright, patents and so on.
        
             | mgummelt wrote:
             | "We need to decide if software is a car to be driven or an
             | essay to be written." - Alan Kay
             | 
             | He goes on, of course, to argue that the car analogy is the
             | wrong one.
        
               | lifeisstillgood wrote:
               | Oh wow - do you have a reference to the original?
        
             | datavirtue wrote:
             | I used to be a mechanic and the analogy fits. Rich people
             | drive into the shop and bark at you to "just fix it." They
             | don't care about any of the minutia but it had better work
             | they way they envision it working. Then they throw you a
             | few pennies and drive off.
        
               | gpanders wrote:
               | Where were you a mechanic that it only cost "a few
               | pennies"? I feel like I get bled dry every time I take my
               | car in...
        
               | datavirtue wrote:
               | Mechanics work ungodly hours and deal with very painful
               | situations and barely make a living wage that can support
               | a family. You feel like you are getting bled dry because
               | the service does not scale. A highly trained professional
               | has to focus on your problem until it is fixed and the
               | solution is often very time consuming. Insurance costs
               | are high and so are labor and material costs. It doesn't
               | mean the mechanics are making a killing. The owners are
               | often well off though. Hiring more mechanics scales for
               | them.
        
               | gpanders wrote:
               | That makes sense. Thanks for sharing your perspective.
        
               | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
               | I don't know myself, but if the big expense is parts not
               | salary, both can be true. The vehicle manufacturer would
               | be the one capturing the profits of the overpriced band-
               | name parts.
        
           | moonbug wrote:
           | your periodic reminder that Excel is programming.
        
             | nullserver wrote:
             | It's also extremely productive.
             | 
             | Management always thinks a new web report / dashboard will
             | solve all the problems.
             | 
             | Team then spends a week or month building said report into
             | system.
             | 
             | Only to find that it doesn't help anything. Six months of
             | iterations later it's correct and useful.
             | 
             | Or have someone build a one off report in excel. Iterate a
             | few times that afternoon until it's correct. Then it's
             | handed off to developers. Avoiding months of rework.
        
             | MaxBarraclough wrote:
             | Respectfully, I don't think it's insightful to point out
             | that Excel is Turing complete. That's a technical
             | curiosity, it doesn't inform our discussion here.
             | 
             | The boundaries of what we call 'software development' are
             | fuzzy, but that's true for all sorts of things. Assembling
             | a computer doesn't make you an electronic engineer, despite
             | that you're building a complex electronic system. If a high
             | school teacher comes up with a basic arithmetic question
             | that, by coincidence, has never been asked before, the
             | teacher still doesn't count as a research mathematician for
             | solving it.
        
               | moonbug wrote:
               | "Excel as technical curiosity".
               | 
               | Peak SV.
        
               | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
               | I think you misunderstood the point (or they edited the
               | comment). Excel is user programmed _automation_ , and
               | it's incredibly wide spread.
        
           | gonzo41 wrote:
           | Software development is a skilled craft, and will remain so.
           | 
           | Yes, you're right, but i would take the meaning that
           | understanding Software development and deployment and how
           | that can be leveraged is a literacy. There's tons of IT
           | transformation disasters because the companies upping their
           | literacy get stuck with knowing the words (SOA and Agile) but
           | don't know how to make coherent use of them.
           | 
           | Most projects these days are IT projects.
           | 
           | Think about it like a dev, Software on a computer is useful.
           | Networked software is more useful. Cloud and IaaS is really
           | useful, SaaS is a really really useful and knowing when to
           | use each to actually get stuff done is the most useful of
           | all.
        
             | FpUser wrote:
             | >"Software on a computer is useful. Networked software is
             | more useful. Cloud and IaaS is really useful, SaaS is a
             | really really useful"
             | 
             | I actually prefer the reverse progression as the closer it
             | is to _my computer / my server_ the less I spend on feeding
             | somebody else's insatiable appetites. Being connected is
             | one thing. Giving somebody else more and more control over
             | your business is totally different.
        
           | andrewflnr wrote:
           | Writing is a skilled craft, and will remain so, especially at
           | professional levels. But we still teach everyone the basics.
        
           | junon wrote:
           | Man it really sucks this is being down voted. Software
           | engineering is not like reading. Reading conveys information
           | about reality. Software code conveys solutions to problems.
           | 
           | The latter requires understanding of computers, problem
           | solving, domains, etc. Just like I can't pick up a book about
           | organic chemistry and understand it, people are not going to
           | some day care to know about how distributed systems
           | algorithms work.
           | 
           | It is indeed a skilled craft and this weird, cyberpunk-ian
           | idea that everyone will just converge on technical literacy
           | is very hand wavey and ignores simple facts like some people
           | just not having ANY interest in computers or tech.
        
             | jfim wrote:
             | Literacy is actually a good analogy. People have different
             | reading abilities, but they're all under the umbrella of
             | literacy.
             | 
             | Some people are illiterate, some people can read simple
             | documents but struggle with higher complexity texts and
             | contracts, and some people can breeze through high
             | complexity texts. In the same way, some people struggle
             | with computers, some are able to understand Excel
             | spreadsheets, some are able to understand business logic
             | expressed in a domain specific language, and some are able
             | to read complex programs.
        
           | nickthemagicman wrote:
           | Reading itself used to be considered a skilled craft.
           | 
           | Only 4% of people knew how to read during the middle ages.
           | 
           | Mostly clergy and civil servants.
           | 
           | The grandparent poster is right imo. If programming becomes
           | just another thing everyone knows, and takes a software class
           | every year like they take an English class, the world will be
           | way better off.
        
             | colinb wrote:
             | Interesting idea. Will everyone spend the next twenty years
             | complaining about how much they hated Mrs Jones the
             | programming teacher and how Stroustrup ruined programming
             | for them?
             | 
             | Put it another way. The reason we interview people the way
             | that we do, is because it isn't realistic (unfortunately)
             | to expect that a CS grad can fizz-buzz, or delete from a
             | linked list, or whatever. Anyone who has spent a little
             | time interviewing can confirm this. Why should we expect
             | that secondary education would do a better job?
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | If they were taught this kind of thing from an extremely
               | young age in school every year these interviews would be
               | trivial, Just like speaking your native language is
               | trivial.
        
               | dasudasu wrote:
               | We don't quite reach a very high degree of practical math
               | literacy even though everyone is taught from a young age.
               | Calculus considered as "incredibly difficult" being an
               | example.
        
               | fakedang wrote:
               | I know a lot of students who would not understand the
               | idea behind calculus concepts, even though they knew the
               | formulae. They simply could not grasp a very simple thing
               | like "area under the curve" or "Slope of a curve". This
               | was at a large private school with a selective admissions
               | process. I know for a fact that my college educated
               | parents (50+) would not know how to solve a calculus
               | problem. So yeah, Calculus is a pretty bad example
               | because it IS incredibly difficult for the general
               | population.
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | I don't know if this is like a smarts thing or just a
               | poor math education thing.
        
               | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
               | As someone who does math for a living, I'm always
               | frustrated because I truly believe it's a poor math
               | education thing. But then people just respond, "oh
               | MYNAME, you just think that because you're good at
               | it/you're a math person." As if that made the point less
               | valid rather than more valid.
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | I completely agree with you.
               | 
               | I think it's a failure of the school system from a very
               | early age because math is heavily dependent on
               | foundations of previous classes.
               | 
               | And I think it's more than just sharing the information
               | we have to also make rational thinking fields as fun and
               | cool as the emotional expression fields of study like
               | English or Music and not the domain of 'nerds'.
               | 
               | I think our whole culture would be way better off if
               | people had better critical thinking logic and math
               | skills.
        
               | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
               | > because math is heavily dependent on foundations of
               | previous classes.
               | 
               | This is a point I hadn't thought enough about before.
               | Great insight.
               | 
               | It makes me think that maybe we just suck at education in
               | general, and it only shows up in the subjects where
               | continuation is dependent on previous courses.
               | 
               | If you completely fail to understand american history,
               | you can lie to yourself about being good at it, and
               | continue to believe that when you get to european
               | history. If you completely fail to understand the lessons
               | from Fahrenheit 451, you can believe you're good at
               | English (the subject, not the language) while you move on
               | to Shakespeare.
               | 
               | The only (pre-college) subjects I can think of that
               | really require you to actually understand the prereq's
               | material are math and language. And they share that
               | people say "I'm just not a math person" or "I'm just no
               | good at languages."
               | 
               | I'd never thought about it with that lens before, but now
               | I'm feeling kinda pessimistic. Like, if this hypothesis
               | is true, it's not about bringing math education up to the
               | bar of other subjects, it's about overhauling the entire
               | system.
        
               | AlchemistCamp wrote:
               | Leonardo da Vinci was likely one of the most intelligent
               | humans ever to have lived, and didn't understand
               | calculus. It wasn't for lack of interest, either! He was
               | fascinated with parachutes, timing falling objects and
               | trying to understand the rates of change. But despite
               | nibbling at the edges of calculus, he never got there.
               | 
               | In contrast, it's now completely ordinary for a teenager
               | to not only get to the core ideas but solve complex
               | calculations with them in timed tests!
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | This is an odd comparison.
               | 
               | I think DaVinci was way before Newton.
               | 
               | High school students aren't asked to invent calculus just
               | to understand it.
               | 
               | I didn't invent djikstras graph traversal algorithm but I
               | can read and understand it.
               | 
               | I think there's a difference between original invention
               | and understanding 'n usage.
        
               | AlchemistCamp wrote:
               | We all stand on the shoulders of giants and have
               | increasingly powerful complimentary cognitive artifacts
               | that let us easily do things that used to be very
               | difficult.
               | 
               | In a more extreme version, consider that ancient Greek
               | and Roman mathematicians struggled with long division
               | problems that many of us can do in our heads now!
               | 
               | Why? Arabic numerals are far more effective than Roman
               | numerals for the task and after having learned them, we
               | have a permanently increased ability to do certain kinds
               | of calculation.
        
               | isbvhodnvemrwvn wrote:
               | You use your native language all the day, all the time.
               | It's nowhere near the same.
        
             | fauigerzigerk wrote:
             | The important difference between programming and
             | reading/writing is that written language is just another
             | representation of natural language. All the complexity is
             | in understanding and using natural language. Reading itself
             | is trivial once you have some practice.
             | 
             | Programming on the other hand is creating new abstractions
             | (i.e modelling). It never becomes trivial, because it's not
             | just a new encoding of existing abstractions.
             | 
             | I think programming is no different than maths. Yes,
             | everyone will have to know a little bit of it, but very few
             | will be capable of modelling complex problems or
             | implementing large software systems.
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | Language is just a tool to express a collection of ideas.
               | 
               | The reason programming is not an extension of our natural
               | language is because we haven't included those concepts in
               | our natural language yet.
               | 
               | The world would be way better off if everyone had better
               | logic and analytical thinking ability
        
               | jart wrote:
               | Well lots of people can read and write, but few people
               | are able to write a good novel. Everyone I know who isn't
               | necessarily a software engineer but has basic programming
               | skills has benefited from that knowledge. For example
               | with everyday office work there's a big difference
               | between someone who's able to use Word and someone who's
               | able to use Access. The latter requires programming know-
               | how. Also shell scripts and automation. It has a huge
               | productivity amplifying impact.
        
               | fauigerzigerk wrote:
               | _> Well lots of people can read and write, but few people
               | are able to write a good novel._
               | 
               | That's exactly my point. Coming up with a great story is
               | very difficult. Writing it down is trivial in comparison.
               | 
               |  _> Everyone I know who isn't necessarily a software
               | engineer but has basic programming skills has benefited
               | from that knowledge._
               | 
               | I completely agree. It's very useful and should be taught
               | in school just like maths is taught in school. Maybe it
               | should be taught as part of maths.
               | 
               | My point is that the cognitive difficulty of formal
               | modelling is on a completely different level than that of
               | transcribing words. We should adjust our expectations
               | accordingly.
        
               | jart wrote:
               | I agree but consider that Homer, one of the greatest
               | storytellers of all time, was most likely illiterate.
               | I've also met people who are outstanding at computer
               | science but struggle with coding. I just think they're
               | different skills and the people who can do both know how
               | smart and important they are. It's sometimes a source of
               | discouragement when the aim is to teach coding as a form
               | of literacy. I read a story once where this company a few
               | decades ago tricked a group of secretaries into learning
               | to code LISP because they didn't tell these women that
               | what they were doing was programming. Similar to the
               | airline ticket salespeople who used to do things like
               | edit raw memory in their sabre terminals, which is
               | something most programmers today would believe they're
               | not smart enough to do. It's amazing how clever people
               | are at figuring things out if we avoid thinking about
               | technology labor with the classic division of labor
               | assembly line model.
        
               | lifeisstillgood wrote:
               | I seem to remember a similar using LISP story - not
               | tricking people but they gave sales team / admin lisp
               | _tools_ because they did not have time to code the
               | "proper ones" - and the employees (women) rebelled when
               | people tried to take them away. I want to say it was ...
               | wrote much of netscape then ran a nightclub ... memory
               | like a sieve I have.
        
               | EdwardCoffin wrote:
               | Rather than JWZ, you may be thinking of the Mailman
               | system for customer service at Amazon in the early days,
               | as recounted by Steve Yegge [1]
               | 
               | [1] https://sites.google.com/site/steveyegge2/tour-de-
               | babel
        
               | lifeisstillgood wrote:
               | By saying " ed few can do the hard stuff", is that not
               | redefining use of maths to an arbitrary cutoff line.
               | 
               | Think of all the instances of maths used globally. Do the
               | millions of people who more or less get the idea of an
               | average - this is used across politics, and common
               | discourse. Does that count as maths? I would say yes,
               | just as a for loop is programming. No we are not
               | expecting a compiler but just "arranging the world so it
               | can be easily iterated over" is a fine common objective.
        
               | fauigerzigerk wrote:
               | _> Does that count as maths?_
               | 
               | Yes, that's exactly what I meant when I said "a little
               | bit of it".
        
             | maxwell wrote:
             | Agreed.
             | 
             | Widespread ability to read and write natural language seems
             | to've, eventually, made written constitutions not so-much
             | "viable" but "necessary".
             | 
             | It's easy to forget how innovative the U.S. Constitution
             | was for being _written_ , content aside.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_constitution
             | s
             | 
             | Definitely excited about the social implications of
             | widespread ability to read and write executable language in
             | the long run, note when France crossed 50% literacy though:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy#/media/File:Illitera
             | c...
        
             | lifeisstillgood wrote:
             | I think I am the grandparent - and yes I agree, software is
             | going to be table stakes for the next generation of
             | corporate players (and by implication, those corporates who
             | cannot will mean a huge gap opening up).
             | 
             | It's not just "can my employees write a for loop" but it's
             | "do we store data sensibly, when upper management wants a
             | report is there a data history stretching back to the raw
             | (ie no manual involvement). Do we all publish APIs and work
             | through those defined interfaces - and many more.
        
         | b3kart wrote:
         | > Literacy of employees and customers transform(s/ed) all
         | industries but we don't talk about the literacy department or
         | literacy investments in corporations.
         | 
         | Well, we do, it's just called the "copywriting department". :-)
         | Literacy is important for modern business, some people are
         | better at it than others, corporations pay such people to focus
         | on literacy. Same goes for software development: yes, it's
         | rapidly getting commoditised, but I don't think software
         | development as a profession is going anywhere any time soon.
        
         | simiano wrote:
         | I rarely reply to a comment here on HN. But yours resonated
         | with me. Software as a new form of literacy is a good mental
         | model. Also "You cannot compensate for lack of literacy in a
         | company or society" is spot on. Thank you.
        
           | lifeisstillgood wrote:
           | Thank you :-) I am actually writing a book about this and a
           | few other ideas - watch out for "the software mind".
        
         | youerbt wrote:
         | It's not clear to me what you mean by software. Software is
         | just a tool and writing software is also just a tool, more
         | often than not, not that interesting in itself. Solving
         | problems using software is the goal and can be realized with
         | various ways, like those low-code solutions you mention.
         | 
         | This is why I'm becoming more and more unhappy about calling
         | myself a programmer. It just doesn't have that "problem-solving
         | using computer technology" ring to it.
        
           | datavirtue wrote:
           | Agreed. Programmers code. Developers build software. Most
           | software engineers work under a developer (business subject
           | matter expert, slash, product owner) as programmers.
           | 
           | The person who envisions and specifies the features is the
           | developer. The person who translates those into code is a
           | software engineer or programmer. Sometimes they are the same
           | person. In the corporate world, rarely ever.
           | 
           | In the corporate world if the software engineer can capture
           | and document a business domain's processes then they are
           | effectively taking the job role of developer from the product
           | owner. Most people are comfortable leaving that in the hands
           | of someone else and making it "their job." Engineers have the
           | chance to take power but rarely do because they get caught up
           | in the weeds of trying to covert a trickle of requirements
           | into code because...agile. Developer Hegemony, when are we
           | going to wake up?
        
       | skrebbel wrote:
       | Sounds to me like Ben agrees that we're now in the Deployment Age
       | (http://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html).
       | 
       | I wonder if he also thinks that the VC model is a less good fit
       | here.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | didibus wrote:
       | > More fundamentally, though, for both music and books, most of
       | the arguments and questions are music industry questions and book
       | industry questions, not tech or software questions
       | 
       | I agree with this so much, but in practice people actually don't
       | realize this enough.
       | 
       | When I work with business teams, they have a hard time
       | distinguishing business rules from tech problems. So they'll say
       | something like... Oh the payouts aren't deposited in time, we
       | need to detect in advance that a payout is required and start the
       | deposit process earlier. And then they'll say, that's a tech
       | problem for the tech team to solve.
       | 
       | Except not really, yes it takes a software engineer to program a
       | computer to enact these rules and this process, if you've chosen
       | to have the process managed by a computer. That said, all the
       | difficulties are in defining the business rules. When exactly
       | should you start the depositing process? Based on what will you
       | define when it has to start, what if it's started and the
       | customer removes their bank details, or what if etc. This all
       | becomes hard business problems for the business to solve.
       | 
       | So what happens in practice is, business domain experts overtime
       | start to abstract more and more things to the computer, leaving
       | the software to actually answer for these business problems and
       | define the rules for them. In turn it is often to the developer
       | to figure out the solution to the business problem and a strategy
       | to solve it, and then implement it in the computer. Those things
       | often end up happening together.
       | 
       | That's why I think in effect software companies slowly move to
       | owning the business itself. And this is a part of software is
       | eating the world.
       | 
       | As computers take over control, enforcement and execution of more
       | and more business processes, the management and administration
       | authority is slowly reversed, software becomes at the root, and
       | software engineers at the helm. It becomes increasingly difficult
       | for business people without that software background to realize
       | that most things are not a software problem, but a business
       | problem which they could be focusing on themselves, but are
       | delegating more and more over to software companies and software
       | engineers.
       | 
       | It's pretty common to ask a business domain expert about how
       | should this be handled, and for them to ask back, well how does
       | the computer currently handles it?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | wrnr wrote:
       | It's also getting easier to make software and harder to make
       | physical goods. Still software is probably the place to get
       | started on a problem. I wanted to make something out of carbon
       | fiber but I think I write my own cad software that can simulate
       | braided structures before I'll buy an autoclave and scale a
       | production line.
        
       | beforeolives wrote:
       | This was interesting but it reads like it's only an introduction.
       | What does the title mean? How are we outgrowing software if every
       | company is a software company? Where are the important questions
       | if not in software?
        
       | krishan711 wrote:
       | Wheenver reading articles like this i love to replace words like
       | software with electricity or something similar. All these
       | industries are and will continue to be disrupted by whatever the
       | latest innovation is. It's just that software is the latest big
       | one to change things so dramatically. People say similar things
       | about crypto and finance or ai and writing. It seems silly to
       | think this has ever not been the case and will ever not be the
       | case.
        
       | cushychicken wrote:
       | Reminds me of Joe from _Halt and Catch Fire_ observing:
       | "Computers aren't the thing. They're the thing that _gets us_ to
       | the thing. "
        
         | datavirtue wrote:
         | A variation of "the network is the computer" perhaps.
        
       | derriz wrote:
       | The story displays a lack of historical perspective which I find
       | common among technologists particularly those focussing on IT.
       | 
       | The entire article seems to be based on the following premise:
       | "In the past, IBM, Oracle or Microsoft sold technology to other
       | companies, as a tool - they sold computers and software to GE,
       | P&G and Citibank. Now there's a generation of companies that both
       | create software and use it themselves to enter another industry,
       | and often to change it."
       | 
       | This claim of an unprecedented economic change currently
       | occurring seems obviously indefensible to me or at the very least
       | historically ignorant?
       | 
       | New companies exploiting (rather than selling) new technology
       | (not just software) to displace incumbents is the oldest story in
       | the world.
       | 
       | And IBM, Microsoft and Oracle still sell technology as far as I
       | can see.
        
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