[HN Gopher] Was German unification inevitable?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Was German unification inevitable?
        
       Author : samclemens
       Score  : 47 points
       Date   : 2021-03-18 17:49 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.historytoday.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.historytoday.com)
        
       | GekkePrutser wrote:
       | Well the unification of the German speaking areas mentioned in
       | the article never really happened as Austria and the Swiss-German
       | areas are still separate countries from Germany (and in the case
       | of Switzerland always have been).
       | 
       | So the answer is it's been avoidable and actually been avoided :)
        
         | varispeed wrote:
         | I think it will kind of happen by proxy as European Union
         | members are slowly turning into administrative regions rather
         | than remaining as proper countries.
        
           | sneak wrote:
           | Switzerland is not a member state of the EU.
           | 
           | (They are part of the EEA and Schengen agreement zone, so
           | people often forget this.)
        
             | rgblambda wrote:
             | Switzerland is not part of the EEA, although they have many
             | treaties with the EU that more or less comprises the
             | relationship the EU has with an EEA country.
        
             | varispeed wrote:
             | I am aware of that, but my prediction is that they will be
             | slowly less and less sovereign over time and at one point
             | there will be one unified european superstate. Who knows,
             | maybe German will become the main language?
        
               | sneak wrote:
               | What mechanism do you propose causes Switzerland, which
               | is 100% sovereign (and even isn't part of the EU, despite
               | all their neighbors being such), to become "less and less
               | sovereign over time"? Who rules them? How? Why?
        
               | _ph_ wrote:
               | There are considerations amongst the Swiss to gain full
               | EU membership. I don't know whether they are a majority
               | though.
        
               | dgellow wrote:
               | Nop, definitely not. We (i.e swiss people, not me
               | specifically) rejected it multiple times and that's
               | clearly not going to change in the near future.
        
         | vidarh wrote:
         | The question raised is specifically about the inevitability of
         | the unification that _actually_ happened in 1871 and 1990, not
         | about any idea of larger German state. The article does not
         | mention language at all as far as I can see, nor cultural
         | connections.
         | 
         | Overall this article not really answering anything, though. The
         | answers are t0o high level and short to treat the subject
         | seriously.
        
           | GekkePrutser wrote:
           | True but I was mainly reacting to the tagline of the article:
           | 
           | "The unity of the German-speaking lands goes back a long way"
           | 
           | The third paragraph also defines unification as such.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | k__ wrote:
         | This.
         | 
         | As long as Austria is missing, German unification isn't
         | complete.
         | 
         | I mean, Austria has a much lower population than Bavaria. It's
         | basically a autonomous German state.
        
       | chmod775 wrote:
       | Considering most Germans alive today experienced the (1990)
       | unification and the political climate during that time, it's a
       | bit weird to ask four non-German _historians_.
       | 
       | This question would be better posed to politicians of that time,
       | many of which are retired now, but still alive.
       | 
       | I can guarantee the answers would be more _interesting_ for sure.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Was the collapse of the Soviet Union inevitable?
       | 
       | If the Soviet Union had hung on for another 20 years, it would
       | have made it into the Internet era. A classic argument against
       | Soviet-style communism is that central planning doesn't work. It
       | doesn't scale. Only free markets scale.
       | 
       | Then came the Internet. Now, companies can scale up to planetary
       | scale. Amazon doesn't seem to be having scaling problems - the
       | bigger it gets, the better it works. Nor does Tencent, or
       | Alibaba, or Citibank, or AT&T, or Disney, or Union Pacific.
       | Competition is on the way out.
       | 
       | So today, central planning works at scale. No reason it couldn't
       | work for a communist economy. China's not doing badly.
        
         | deafcalculus wrote:
         | 1. Central planning might work today but not in a democracy.
         | Keeping the economy at arms length distance from politics seems
         | essential in a liberal democracy. Pretty sure Amazon wouldn't
         | be as successful if the leadership was elected by employees /
         | customers / stakeholders.
         | 
         | 2. The problem with autocracy + central planning is when things
         | go wrong or the world changes in some important way (or
         | people's preferences change). No way to correct or replace the
         | administration without revolution.
         | 
         | So, I'd still bet on liberal democracy and capitalism over the
         | long term.
        
         | scarmig wrote:
         | The issue with central planning has never been scaling. Back in
         | the mid-20th century, the Soviet Union often managed to excel
         | in scaling particular metrics that were prioritized by
         | leadership. The issue is price discovery and resource
         | allocation, and the ability of politics to interfere with or
         | undermine the price discovery mechanism.
         | 
         | The internet has helped with market-based price discovery by
         | acting as a source of legibility and homogenization, which
         | allows for the mega corporations to extract a lot of the value
         | provided by acting as monopoly providers of the platforms for
         | price discovery. But if you look at their internal corporate
         | economies, all of them have issues with substantial waste,
         | resource misallocation, and politics.
        
       | someguydave wrote:
       | the unification of germany was a disaster, it should revert to
       | city-states like liechtenstein
        
         | Zenst wrote:
         | How was it a disaster?
         | 
         | When West Germany merged with East the impact upon GDP wasn't
         | dramatic and it was a democratic choice.
         | 
         | Indeed it went so well, I dare say it was a motivator towards
         | more integration within the EU and will say the EU went on a
         | pokemon phase not long after in member growth. Which even the
         | EU phrases as "Re-unification of Europe"
         | https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/from-6...
         | 
         | So the re-unification of Germany had many aspects too it that
         | get overlooked.
        
           | someguydave wrote:
           | no, I mean the Prussian unification was a mistake
        
             | Zenst wrote:
             | Ah, not the first unification that springs to mind. I
             | wasn't aware of that, and reading a bit about it and the
             | timeline - you may be very well right. Certainly it
             | interesting to look at how historical events panned out
             | with hindsight and cause and effect. Whole aspect of https:
             | //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Revolution_of_1918%E2%8...
             | takes some getting your head around.
        
               | someguydave wrote:
               | I appreciate your research. As you can see from this
               | thread, there isn't much knowledge of European history
               | from > 40 years ago apparently.
        
             | formerly_proven wrote:
             | Fur ein Deutschland in den Grenzen von 1228 - Neapel bleibt
             | unser!
        
               | someguydave wrote:
               | http://sprachlos-blog.de/westgotisches-ahnenerbe/ lol
        
           | thenaturalist wrote:
           | Don't feed the trolls, I dare suggest.
        
             | Zenst wrote:
             | How can you tell it is a troll and not some perspective
             | without knowing the reasoning and workings out of that
             | perspective?
        
           | rektide wrote:
           | East Germany still faces incredible far ranging economic &
           | societal difficulties after the West Germans swept in, strong
           | armed the state, offered little support, & privatized all
           | industry.
           | 
           | The economy was having enormous difficulties. Rather than
           | support & help the population, it was GDP & GDP alone that
           | was focused on.
           | 
           | My sources for what happened then are mostly the 4-part
           | netflix drama The Perfect Crime, about the assassination of
           | the Trust Agency head who paved over communism with
           | capitalism. Not fancy, so I'm not super well versed. The
           | movie doesn't go far into the aftermath, which, if you look
           | at East Germany, has many of the scariest Trumpist vibes one
           | might imagine to it. People got left the heck behind. It was
           | a conquest not an integration.
           | 
           | Edit: People seem to really really hate that I cited my
           | sources and it's not good enough. Perhaps a wikipedia quote
           | to confirm some of my stance might make you modestly less
           | skeptical? My words are radical but the situation itself was
           | too:
           | 
           | > Despite these problems, the process of unification moved
           | ahead, albeit slowly. The Treuhand, staffed almost entirely
           | by Germans from the west, became the virtual government of
           | eastern Germany. In the course of privatization, the agency
           | decided which companies would live and which would die, which
           | communities would thrive and which would shrivel, and which
           | eastern Lander would be prosperous and which would not. It
           | also decided who might or might not buy eastern firms or
           | services.
           | 
           | I'd like to find a way to hand out more credit, to be fairer,
           | and I lack that expertise. My apologies. This was an
           | incredibly difficult situation. Yet, it feels very much, the
           | German "reunification" was a one way integration, was one
           | country taking over another, with few chances at all for the
           | German Democratic Republic government & people to try to
           | self-determine what path forward they wanted to take towards
           | reunification.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_Germ.
           | ..
        
             | thomasz wrote:
             | > My sources are mostly the 4-part netflix drama[...]
             | 
             | Seriously!?
        
               | acheron wrote:
               | Given how many Internet commenters think they're experts
               | on Chernobyl now, it's not like he's alone.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | choeger wrote:
               | Still, they are correct. I can tell you from first-hand
               | experience that this is what happened to many east
               | Germans. Mass unemployment, deserted cities and rural
               | areas, general loss of perspective lead to many social
               | problems, right-wing extremism one of them.
               | 
               | I don't think, that western Germany is solely to blame,
               | though. If you look into the "Klassenfeind" in eastern
               | Germany, that is entrepreneurs, bourgeoise, Christians,
               | even just small-scale craftsman, they all did rather well
               | after a short transition. But they did so in a very
               | difficult environment: The masses of workers, educated to
               | be lead by and taken care of, by the state were now
               | completely on their own. Underqualified faced an
               | especially dire situation: In eastern Germany even the
               | most inept would have some payed position, even though
               | they were completely useless there. It was basically an
               | alternative to unemployment. Now these, say, 5% of the
               | workforce never had been told that they should have some
               | qualification to get some work. They simply expected some
               | simple position to be created for them (I personally met
               | some of these people, btw.). These people never faced a
               | chance on the labor market.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Prior to Covid, I visited former GDR several times.
               | 
               | Places like Hoyerswerda are the worst German-speaking
               | communities I ever saw, the spirit of hopelessness
               | permeates everything.
               | 
               | Even in cities like Gorlitz that were restored to their
               | original beauty, the loss of population has been so
               | enormous that entire building blocks are empty, the
               | windows blinded by years of dust. Ghost neighbourhoods,
               | very untypical for Europe.
               | 
               | Zittau on the Czech border has lost like a third of
               | population within thirty years. Many of the remaining
               | residents are over 70.
        
             | _jal wrote:
             | > Offered little support
             | 
             | Support peaked at 1/3rd of GDP. At the time, there were a
             | lot of critics (domestic and foreign) of how expensive
             | Kohl's vision of rebuilding the East was.
             | 
             | I'm not saying: the East has caught up, it was handled
             | perfectly, there aren't still problems, there aren't ugly
             | political problems.
             | 
             | I am saying you have a very weirdly biased view of what
             | happened, and maybe should consider not single-sourcing
             | your history to tee vee shows, or at least recognize the
             | limits of doing so.
        
               | rektide wrote:
               | Support was offered, on West Germany's terms. As per
               | wikipedia,
               | 
               | > Despite these problems, the process of unification
               | moved ahead, albeit slowly. The Treuhand, staffed almost
               | entirely by Germans from the west, became the virtual
               | government of eastern Germany.
               | 
               | I agree, I would like to have a better background on
               | this. The West did face severe difficulties & extreme
               | extreme burdens of it's own in trying to support &
               | integrate. But it continually feels to me like the image
               | of this being a take-over are not unfounded. Trying to
               | figure out a way to sustain & support the economy, to
               | allow space for a more graceful self-rule, under which
               | terms transition could be better, more slowly explored
               | would have been immensely interesting. Instead, we got a
               | much fairer, nicer version of what was just starting to
               | happen somewhat East of Germany, in the wake of the fall
               | of the USSR ten months three weeks earlier: a sell off, a
               | economic re-dividing up of spoils, a commercialization of
               | a nation.
               | 
               | There were huge huge challenges, and it's not as simple
               | at all as saying capitalism is at fault here. This wasn't
               | even necessarily predatory. The world continues to have
               | faith above all in the GDP, in macro-economics. The drive
               | to push GDP up, by all means, quickly, or else (given the
               | economic troubles faced) is a very real & valid survival
               | reflex; quite understandable. It's hard to imagine what
               | alternatives there were, especially given the already
               | fairly dire economic state of East Germany/the German
               | Democratic Republic at the time, but I don't think it is
               | a "very weirdly biased view" at all that I nor wikipedia
               | present: that the GDR was coerced into change, rapidly,
               | by external forces, with little respect to self-
               | determinism & little chance given for the people to
               | figure out a way forward to try to support each other, in
               | a less ambitiously bottom-line oriented manner.
               | 
               | I'm a little more aware of the contemporary situation,
               | where there is an alarming rise of far-right angry-
               | popularism. From the same sort of economically-left-
               | behind folks who feel left out of modern society. And
               | while I think their reaction is malformed, I can
               | sympathize with their anger and recognize the common
               | problems faced by "rural America" and much of East
               | Germany.
               | 
               | Anyhow, you've rather told me I'm full of shit, and I'd
               | like rather much if you could find something beyond
               | criticism to offer to this conversation. Do you have any
               | materials or suggestions for the readers here?
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | One of the obvious problems is that Ossis are still
               | massively underrepresented in the German elite. Only a
               | tiny proportion of big business owners are Eastern, the
               | proportion of Easterners among university professors or
               | judges is smaller than expected, even in the new Lander,
               | the same applies in culture.
               | 
               | This cannot really be compensated by money, especially if
               | that money flows back into Western corporations (such as
               | construction companies that build infrastructure).
        
       | _ph_ wrote:
       | I am not a historian, but I grew up in the western part of a
       | split Germany. Everyone did consider Germany a split nation. All
       | of the older people living had lived in the pre-War Germany which
       | was unified. That meant that many families were spread across
       | both halves of Germany before the war and consequently separated
       | due to the split. In several cases (not only Berlin) the border
       | whould run across cities.
       | 
       | If most people considered Germany a split country, how can a
       | reunification not be inevitable? The fact that the border had to
       | be guarded against the East German citizens from leaving is
       | another idicator. Finally, after the border opened, Eastern
       | Germany was on the brink of civil collapse, as a lot of people
       | would just leave for the West, due to the economic imbalance and
       | probably not so much trust to keep their freedom in the future.
       | Reunification was the one way to stop this.
        
         | PeterisP wrote:
         | "how can a reunification not be inevitable?" - for a
         | contrasting example, look at Koreas; the same arguments you
         | list apply also there, and at least there reunification does
         | not seem inevitable; and with every generation of separation
         | the ties grow weaker.
        
           | _ph_ wrote:
           | Well, assuming of course, the regime which holds its
           | population hostage, fails. Which happened in eastern Germany.
           | Of course, if the countries had stayed separate for 100
           | years, anything might happen. With Korea, it depends on how
           | long the north keeps the border closed and if and how the
           | regime fails.
        
       | ptmcc wrote:
       | Something that was beaten into us as history majors was to be
       | highly skeptical of anyone suggesting that an historical event
       | was "inevitable".
       | 
       | It's easy to look back on the past and think that you see
       | "obvious" trends and patterns but so much of that is influenced
       | by your modern perspective and how selectively history is
       | preserved and told.
       | 
       | Like any humanities or social science, history is not objective.
       | Part of studying and analyzing history necessarily involves
       | studying and analyzing the context and biases of sources,
       | stories, and narratives.
        
         | ForHackernews wrote:
         | I guess it depends on your perspective: If you believe in hard
         | determinism then you could argue that literally everything that
         | has ever happened and will happen is "inevitable".
        
           | thaumasiotes wrote:
           | https://dilbert.com/strip/2008-11-04
           | 
           | I particularly like the phrasing "I'd have to say" :D
        
       | billfruit wrote:
       | Why was the Holy Roman Empire never restablished in the post-
       | Napoleonic era? If I remember the last HRE was still around for
       | many years after the outster of Napoleon.
        
         | monoideism wrote:
         | > Why was the Holy Roman Empire never restablished in the post-
         | Napoleonic era
         | 
         | Well, that was one of the ideas behind the "Third Reich" (Roman
         | Empire, HRE, then German Reich). Of course, it was under
         | Hitler, not any hereditary emperor.
         | 
         | > If I remember the last HRE was still around for many years
         | after the outster of Napoleon.
         | 
         | No, the last recognized HRE (Francis II) was defeated by
         | Napolean.
         | 
         | But technically, there still is an heir, although his family
         | has renounced any claim to that or any other title (among other
         | reasons, because Hungary and Austria don't permit the use of
         | such titles): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_von_Habsburg
        
         | cat199 wrote:
         | Neither German nor historian, but -
         | 
         | The Austro-Hungarian empire was considered to be a successor
         | state and claimed the title for a time, and basically the
         | German Empire and Austro-Hungarian empire were somewhat viewed
         | as successors along protestant and catholic lines - unifying
         | the division of the two under a 'new' ideology was a big part
         | of third reich ideology (irrespective of how bad naziism was,
         | this is a huge part of the history of the broader topic of
         | 'german unification') .
         | 
         | This article mentions neither historical austria-hungary, the
         | reformation, the anschluss, or modern day austria, so it seems
         | more than a bit lacking from my perspective. But again, not a
         | German nor a Historian so I could be missing something..
        
         | k__ wrote:
         | Because of the rivaly between Austria and Prussia.
        
       | AlexCoventry wrote:
       | Tim Weiner's new book _The Folly and the Glory_ , on US/Russian
       | political warfare since 1945, makes a compelling case that it was
       | not inevitable at all. Most of Europe was opposed to the idea,
       | and the only enthusiastic supporters were the US and the
       | Germanies.
       | 
       | Russia was virulently opposed, and according to the book, West
       | Germany paid Russia $2T to remove all of its soldiers from East
       | German territory. The book makes the case that the reunification
       | of Germany is one of the foundations of Russian resentment
       | towards the US, since the Bush I administration gave them
       | categorical assurances that the borders of NATO would not move
       | "an inch Eastward."
        
         | pram wrote:
         | Yeah that fact about the Russian soldiers blew my mind when I
         | stumbled across it. Germany also provided money for housing
         | when the soldiers got back. It was basically bribery haha. They
         | didn't leave until 1994 iirc
        
         | gumby wrote:
         | The Russians negotiated a three (or four?) year stand down.
         | Allegedly the soldiers liked the German posting because of the
         | chocolate and generally better life in Germany than in Russia.
         | 
         | I remember back around '92 or '93 looking out from the window
         | of an in-law who lived in the Harz mountains and seeing an old
         | border watch tower. Then I commented that it looked like there
         | were people up there. "Oh yes, those are the Russians" I was
         | told. "Even though there is no border they keep up the
         | procedures because they're afraid that if they just sit around
         | they'll be sent home".
        
         | Synaesthesia wrote:
         | What about the fact that Stalin offered the West a unified
         | Germany in 1953, on the (reasonable) condition that she not
         | join a hostile alliance. (Stalin note)
        
         | older wrote:
         | > the Bush I administration gave them categorical assurances
         | that the borders of NATO would not move "an inch Eastward."
         | 
         | Where you are quoting from? As far as I know such promises were
         | never given and not even discussed at that time.
        
           | Someone wrote:
           | https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-
           | eastward-e...:
           | 
           |  _After speaking with many of those involved and examining
           | previously classified British and German documents in detail,
           | SPIEGEL has concluded that there was no doubt that the West
           | did everything it could to give the Soviets the impression
           | that NATO membership was out of the question for countries
           | like Poland, Hungary or Czechoslovakia.
           | 
           | On Feb. 10, 1990, between 4 and 6:30 p.m., Genscher spoke
           | with Shevardnadze. According to the German record of the
           | conversation, which was only recently declassified, Genscher
           | said: "We are aware that NATO membership for a unified
           | Germany raises complicated questions. For us, however, one
           | thing is certain: NATO will not expand to the east." And
           | because the conversion revolved mainly around East Germany,
           | Genscher added explicitly: "As far as the non-expansion of
           | NATO is concerned, this also applies in general."
           | 
           | Shevardnadze replied that he believed "everything the
           | minister (Genscher) said."_
           | 
           | Edit: https://books.openedition.org/ceup/2759?lang=en says:
           | 
           |  _In the session with Baker on February 9, 1990, Gorbachev
           | discussed various forms of German unification and association
           | with NATO. Although he could not accept it publicly, he
           | agreed with Baker's argument that the presence of U.S. troops
           | in Europe was a factor in overall European stability, which
           | implicitly meant accepting the idea of Germany's eventual
           | membership in the Western alliance. It was during this
           | conversation that Baker offered Gorbachev guarantees (that is
           | the word used in the Russian memorandum of conversation--
           | garantii) that NATO would not "spread an inch eastward," and
           | the Soviet leader accepted the statement as sufficient on the
           | basis of the trust he felt had been built between him and the
           | U.S. leadership--never asking for a written pledge.
           | Gorbachev's reasoning could partially be explained by the
           | domestic dilemma he faced: how could he tell the Politburo
           | that he had asked for written guarantees that NATO would not
           | expand to the territories of the Warsaw Pact while the Pact
           | was still in existence? That would have meant he had already
           | accepted the idea that the socialist alliance was on its
           | deathbed. In this conversation, Baker was not trying to
           | mislead Gorbachev in any way; he was merely expressing the
           | official position of the U.S. government at the time, which
           | was fully shared by other Western leaders, talking
           | specifically about the NATO presence on East German soil, but
           | by implication also about any future expansion. However, the
           | Bush administration would change that position very soon--
           | without providing any notification to Gorbachev._
        
             | older wrote:
             | So, basically, someone said something in discussions but no
             | documents were signed?
        
           | ivan_gammel wrote:
           | Here's more information on this topic, unfortunately only in
           | Russian (you can use Google Translate): https://ru.m.wikipedi
           | a.org/wiki/Vopros_o_sushchestvovanii_dogov...
        
           | w0de0 wrote:
           | A better source than Russian Wikipedia:
           | https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-
           | programs/2017...
        
         | _ph_ wrote:
         | If I remember correctly, the number was rather 30 billion
         | Deutsche Mark. But still, it was a good deal for the Sovjet
         | Union. Personally, I think that Gorbatchew was very aware of
         | the pure financial state of the Sovjet Union and this was the
         | ability to get rid of the DDR not only at no costs, but having
         | all costs of relocating the military covered by the west.
         | Still, he managed to delay the collapse of the Sovjet Union
         | only by a few years.
        
         | cpleppert wrote:
         | The $2T cited in the book does not refer to the direct costs
         | paid to Russia but to the total amount spent on reunification
         | which came out to something like $100 billion per year for
         | twenty years.
         | 
         | The opposition of the rest of Europe and Russia has to be put
         | in context. Russia would not have been able to support the East
         | German economy nor would it have been able to afford to
         | maintain a pointless troop presence that would no longer have
         | local support. The rest of europe might have been opposed
         | because of historical reasons having to do with security but
         | not allowing unification would have created a massive roadblock
         | for the european economy. Short of reunification, there was not
         | an acceptable legal regime to end Germany's limited
         | sovereignty(which the rest of europe supported).
         | 
         | Given that Germany strongly supported reunification and the US
         | was in support for obvious geopolitical reasons there was no
         | way for any other power to stop the process. Russia could
         | either be paid to leave or get nothing and spend money it
         | doesn't have to maintain the troop presence to boot. Poor
         | relations with Germany would have had a catastrophic impact on
         | the Russian economy. The UK was never really serious about
         | stopping reunification and barely tried to bluff. Similar
         | reasons apply to France which could not oppose reunification
         | and support European integration.
         | 
         | For all these reasons I find the the focus on contingency to be
         | rather overdrawn. It was not inevitable in the sense that it
         | had to happen(you can come up scenarios where the soviet union
         | continues into the 21st century) but given the collapse of the
         | Warsaw Pact it's hard to understand how unification could have
         | been ultimately prevented.
         | 
         | You can see a similar dynamic taking place in South Korea where
         | unification is broadly supported by the younger population in
         | the face of titanic security and economic concerns. German
         | unification has been supported for hundreds of years for
         | comparable reasons.
        
           | quietbritishjim wrote:
           | > UK was never really serious about stopping reunification
           | 
           | Why would the UK have even pretended to want to stop it?
           | Weren't their foreign policies, at least towards communism,
           | heavily aligned with the US?
        
             | HeckFeck wrote:
             | Reunification meant that Germany's power in the EU
             | increased. Becoming a bigger country with a larger
             | population got more seats and pushed the bloc more in its
             | direction. Thus reducing Britain's influence there.
        
         | UweSchmidt wrote:
         | Source on the $2T?
        
           | rolandm wrote:
           | Not in the trillions, but more like "25-40 billion euros or
           | $31-50 billion" https://www.dw.com/en/how-kohl-and-gorbachev-
           | sealed-the-deal...
           | 
           | Helmut Kohl negotiated a very good deal. Money was not an
           | issue for Germany but speed and total withdrawl of the
           | Russian troops. Germany would have paid much more. A year
           | later and it might be too late for the reunification
           | (Gorbachev was kicked out of the Kremlin).
        
           | markvdb wrote:
           | https://archive.is/J6Hkj
           | 
           | The Washington Post mentions 14 * 10^9 DEM, or ~7.2 _10^9 EUR
           | or ~9_ 10^9 USD at the time.
        
             | _ph_ wrote:
             | Your last number is off, 7 billion Euros would be like 9
             | billion USD.
        
         | bryanrasmussen wrote:
         | >is one of the foundations of Russian resentment towards the US
         | 
         | surely one of the reasons for continuation of Russian
         | resentment, not a foundation?
        
       | coldtea wrote:
       | Hopefully not. Let's see if it will split again.
        
         | barbazoo wrote:
         | I very much doubt that. There is no serious movement with that
         | goal.
        
         | k__ wrote:
         | I don't think so, at least not in the near future.
         | 
         | The most unhappy states are the poorest who get subsidized by
         | the rich states. So if they would leave, they wouldn't get
         | money anymore.
        
       | Svip wrote:
       | The answer is probably no. While Pan-German and Pan-Italian
       | nationalists[0] were successful (well, the German ones partially
       | successful, what with Austria being left out), Pan-Scandinavians
       | were not.
       | 
       | I doubt many things in history were inevitable. I do feel like
       | German re-unification were probably more likely following the
       | Second World War than German unification was after the Congress
       | of Vienna, even if it looked bleaker for re-unification from the
       | outset.
       | 
       | [0] To be clear, Italian and in particular German unification
       | were not the success of pan-nationalists movement but rather
       | strong political forces (like Bismarck) exploiting a popular
       | movement for political gains. Put another way, German unification
       | was not for the benefit of Germans, but for the benefit of
       | Prussia.
        
         | te_chris wrote:
         | Yeah, under Bismarck it was more "one nation, under Prussia".
         | It's also quite well known that there was resistance to
         | unification from the West, due to not wanting that again.
        
           | fakedang wrote:
           | > It's also quite well known that there was resistance to
           | unification from the West, due to not wanting that again.
           | 
           | If that was so well known, then why was it that the first
           | thing the West did was to unify their pieces of Germany into
           | West Germany? Surely it would have been beneficial to them to
           | keep Germany separate if they shared your assumption.
        
         | cpleppert wrote:
         | I don't think those cases are really comparable. Scandinavian
         | countries had separate state institutions (even when countries
         | were part of the same empire or composite monarchy) in a way
         | that didn't apply to the former Holy Roman Empire/German
         | Confederation which were nominally part of the same political
         | unit and saw themselves as having much closer ethnic ties. The
         | HRE was seen as an entirely german political entity and had
         | almost no non-german kings in its entire history. The fact that
         | German states jealously guarded their sovereignty does not mean
         | they did not see themselves as fundamentally german.
         | 
         | Similar reasons apply to Italy. Because of the geography of the
         | Italian peninsula a unified Italian nation state would be much
         | more successful economically than a patchwork of small
         | entities. Once Italy's maritime commercial decline began states
         | had less incentive to block unification.
         | 
         | >> Put another way, German unification was not for the benefit
         | of Germans, but for the benefit of Prussia.
         | 
         | The rest of Germany not only strongly benefited economically
         | from german unification but also supported protective tariff
         | policies after unification that had the effect of tying their
         | economies much closer to Prussia (and vice-versa of course). If
         | they didn't believe it was in their interest why in the world
         | would they do that? If anything, the rest of the German states
         | probably engaged in free-riding off of Prussia's military
         | support. This once again benefits both sides.
        
           | Svip wrote:
           | The states, sure, but the people? Some of them still felt a
           | little betrayed after 1848.
           | 
           | While the discussion about why Scandinavian unification never
           | happened, while Italian and German did, is indeed an
           | interesting one, the broader point is that I do not believe
           | it is reasonable to say either the Italian and German ones
           | were inevitable.
           | 
           | It was by no means certain in 1820 that Prussia would be able
           | to beat Austria over German hegemony, hence whether it was
           | probably not inevitable. The article kind of asks whether
           | German unification the way it happened was inevitable. It is
           | not unreasonable to think of a timeline where Austria learns
           | some real lessons of 1848, and becomes a political
           | powerhouse, while Prussia withers.
        
         | fakedang wrote:
         | Scandinavia was basically Sweden fighting for independence from
         | Denmark-Norway, and Finland fighting for independence from
         | Sweden and Russia. There was no hope for the Kalmar Union to
         | even continue (which didn't happen anyways).
        
       | fakedang wrote:
       | Why is everyone here forgetting the last dictatorship of West
       | Europe here - Liechtenstein?
       | 
       | You can only get complete German unification if you unite parts
       | of Switzerland, Austria and Liechtenstein. And Schleswig.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-03-20 23:01 UTC)