[HN Gopher] In a Phase III trial, Proxalutamide reduced mortalit...
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       In a Phase III trial, Proxalutamide reduced mortality of Covid
       patients
        
       Author : hu3
       Score  : 46 points
       Date   : 2021-03-19 15:30 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com)
        
       | tpmx wrote:
       | The company behind the drug tripled their market cap between
       | November 2020 and March 2021. It's now at 11B HKD: Kintor
       | Pharmaceutical (9939 HK).
        
       | tyingq wrote:
       | I wonder what the cost is...the drug appears to be almost brand
       | new.
        
         | temp0826 wrote:
         | Medications for people with rare conditions tend to be
         | astronomically priced (attempting to recover r&d costs from few
         | buyers?). Covid doesn't seem to be particularly rare
        
           | tyingq wrote:
           | The original purpose of the drug was for prostate and breast
           | cancer.
        
       | allturtles wrote:
       | > there were 141 deaths in the control arm, a 47.6 percent
       | mortality rate
       | 
       | That seems very high to me. I checked quickly for data, and I
       | found a study[0] showing mortality rates for hospitalized covid
       | patients in the U.S. between from 9% to 15%.
       | 
       | So where did they find a control group with 47.6% mortality? Is
       | care that much worse in Brazil vs. the U.S? Are they only giving
       | this to mortally ill patients? The claim of 92% efficacy depends
       | on this very high control group mortality.
       | 
       | [0]:
       | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...
        
         | klmadfejno wrote:
         | I've been trying to find this stat for the whole pandemic. To
         | what degree are our medical systems reducing mortality rates?
        
         | NovemberWhiskey wrote:
         | I think it's going to depend very much on the distribution of
         | patients with the different WHO Covid Ordinal Scale categories
         | within the cohorts.
         | 
         | If there were a lot more 5s (severely ill hospitalised patient
         | on non-invasive ventilation or high-flow oxygen) vs. 3s
         | (hospitalised patients not needing oxygen therapy), it would
         | presumably make a large difference.
        
         | lbrito wrote:
         | >So where did they find a control group with 47.6% mortality?
         | Is care that much worse in Brazil vs. the U.S?
         | 
         | Yeah, unfortunately it is -- 38% according to this news piece,
         | 80% for ICU patients[1]. It makes sense that it is even higher
         | in Amazonas, the Brazilian state reported in the study. Over
         | there they had a very serious health system collapse the last
         | few months; even oxygen supplies were completely depleted
         | statewide for a couple of weeks.
         | 
         | [1] "Mortality in hospital patients admitted with Covid in
         | Brazil is one of the world's largest"
         | https://saude.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,mortalidade-por-...
        
           | hu3 wrote:
           | It doesn't help that a very aggressive strain of covid was
           | discovered in that region of Brazil:
           | 
           | > P.1 infections can produce nearly 10 times more viral load
           | than in other COVID-19-infected persons
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1
        
         | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
         | I believe the trial data is from summer 2020? Survival rates of
         | hospitalized patients improved dramatically over time.
        
       | EMM_386 wrote:
       | This is an antiandrogen. Androgens are thought to play a role in
       | COVID, and apparently there is a "high prevalence of androgenic
       | alopecia in hospitalized patients with COVID-19".
       | 
       | Also callled "male-pattern baldness" but affects both sexes.
       | 
       | More information here:
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7557269/
        
       | fspeech wrote:
       | Good they actually have some understanding of the underlying
       | mechanism. Also this is an oral drug! It reduced mortality risk
       | by 92%:
       | https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/147167/pro...
        
         | sterlind wrote:
         | Summarizing, it looks like the TMPRSS2 protein is necessary for
         | the virus to replicate, and the Androgen Receptor modulates its
         | transcription.
         | 
         | But where I'm confused is why this drug in particular was
         | studied, instead of an approved AR antagonist like bicalutamide
         | or enzalutamide. Way easier to dispense those than some
         | clinical trial drug, right? And is it important that the drug
         | is a silent antagonist of AR rather than an inverse agonist?
         | 
         | Also, how does this affect women? Are we at less risk of
         | mortality through this mechanism? My T levels are very low, but
         | all of us have androgens and their receptors. Maybe TMPRSS2
         | gets transcribed even when T or DHT levels are low?
        
         | dang wrote:
         | I've changed the URL above to that one from
         | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7899267/, which
         | has the paper.
         | 
         | Generally with specialized papers we've found that it's best to
         | link to the best third-party article and then have a link to
         | the paper in the thread. Unfortunately the third party article
         | often isn't great, but it's at least an easier place to get
         | some context, and we can replace the URL when people point out
         | a better one.
        
           | hu3 wrote:
           | I appreciate it. Hopefully the trials can confirm this drug
           | as another tool against covid.
        
         | DoofusOfDeath wrote:
         | > Also this is an oral drug!
         | 
         | Asking as a layman:
         | 
         | Would that be a problem for patients who are unconscious or
         | with breathing tubes?
        
           | fspeech wrote:
           | You can always crush the pill and put it into the feeding
           | tube.
        
       | spdionis wrote:
       | > 171 were randomized to the Proxalutamide arm and 65 were in the
       | placebo group.
       | 
       | Maybe I'm missing something but, how does that happen? I'd expect
       | a 50/50 split
        
         | lrem wrote:
         | (Intuitively, I'm not an expert) Apart from the statistical
         | reasons already mentioned, there is also an ethical one. If you
         | expect the study to confirm the treatment to be highly
         | beneficial, you prefer not to withhold it from your patients.
        
         | Closi wrote:
         | Somewhat unintuitively the statistics in trials don't require a
         | 50/50 split.
        
           | lisper wrote:
           | Here is an extreme example: suppose you are an HIV skeptic
           | who believes that AIDS is not caused by the HIV virus but
           | rather by drugs [1]. How large a study would you need to
           | falsify your hypothesis?
           | 
           | Answer: one HIV-positive subject, left untreated, would be
           | enough, if that person were otherwise healthy. If that person
           | died of AIDS, that would leave one of two possibilities:
           | 
           | 1. HIV causes AIDS, or
           | 
           | 2. Something else causes AIDS and that person JUST HAPPENED
           | to have that other causal factor AND a (harmless) HIV
           | infection.
           | 
           | The odds of #2 are low (because AIDS and HIV infections are
           | both uncommon) so that just leaves the first possibility.
           | 
           | As a side-note, that experiment was actually done by an HIV
           | skeptic, on both herself and her unfortunate daughter [2].
           | Needless to say, both are now dead.
           | 
           | [1] http://duesberg.com/
           | 
           | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine_Maggiore
        
         | mlyle wrote:
         | What split is optimal depends on what effect size you expect.
         | If you expect a very large effect, you get more statistical
         | confidence from allocating more subjects to the treatment
         | group.
         | 
         | On the other hand, if your treatment is very costly, adding
         | subjects to the control group may be an effective way to
         | increase study power without as much increase in study cost.
        
       | victor106 wrote:
       | > Previously, we have reported that men affected by androgenetic
       | alopecia (AGA) are overrepresented in severe coronavirus disease
       | 2019 (COVID-19).
       | 
       | That's very interesting. Never read that anywhere else.
        
       | batter wrote:
       | Might be red herring:
       | https://twitter.com/schneiderleonid/status/13721485262396006...
        
       | ve55 wrote:
       | This is great news and an amazingly strong outcome! Proxalutamide
       | is an antiandrogen, which reduces some of the effects of
       | androgens including testosterone, so I wonder if this has a
       | stronger effect in males than in females. Although the paper
       | mentions the sex distribution of the patients, it doesn't seem to
       | mention the details necessary to conclude this, but unless I'm
       | mistaken over something trivial I'm unsure as to why. Anyone have
       | any thoughts?
        
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       (page generated 2021-03-19 23:02 UTC)