[HN Gopher] Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precau...
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       Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'
        
       Author : sirffuzzylogik
       Score  : 178 points
       Date   : 2021-03-15 15:20 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | giantandroids wrote:
       | You do have to wonder if some of this is politically driven.
       | Germany are losing hundreds of life's a day, while in the
       | meantime the UK has administrated 23 million doses (not sure the
       | ratio of those that were AstraZeneca) and not recorded a single
       | fatality or adverse reaction and are seeing infection rates /
       | deaths drop. I can understand caution under normal circumstances,
       | but nothing is normal right now.
        
         | hef19898 wrote:
         | Well, there is also this:
         | 
         | https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/7/22318113/russia-intelligen...
        
         | fenk85 wrote:
         | Perhaps you should consider the death rate per million between
         | UK and Germany first?
         | 
         | Or compare with Ireland next door to UK, if they had same death
         | rate there be about 70K more people alive in UK today
         | 
         | Yet all of that was forgotten in the manufactured in media
         | vaccine nationalism wars
        
         | Cu3PO42 wrote:
         | It can definitely be interpreted as CYA. They are following the
         | recommendation of the Paul-Ehrlich-Institute, a federal
         | regulatory body.
         | 
         | Imagine they went against this recommendation and it turns out
         | there is indeed an issue with the vaccine. That would cause a
         | shit storm of epic proportions. This way the "worst" that can
         | happen is that there was a delay.
         | 
         | Now people could die during that delay because they weren't
         | vaccinated, but it's much easier to sweep that under the rug as
         | a politician, in my opinion.
        
         | high_derivative wrote:
         | Same thought, I think this is part of political cover for the
         | failing (in comparison) vaccination effort's in continental
         | Europe.
         | 
         | 'See, we were right not to vaccinate this fast'
         | 
         | For the downvoters:
         | https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/eviden...
        
           | mns wrote:
           | If someone would say this about COVID, they would be
           | downvoted into oblivion for spreading unfounded conspiracy
           | theories. It's already 6 countries in the EU that reported
           | issues until now.
        
             | high_derivative wrote:
             | The difference being that there is no evidence yet to point
             | towards vaccinations causing these, while there is plenty
             | evidence for covid. Further, there is plenty of evidence
             | for the lost lives by NOT vaccinating faster.
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | Yeah, and I rightly so if you ask me. AZ seems so to get
             | all the heat in the press. I really wonder why, but as soon
             | as you start looking at the numbers, there never seems to
             | be something to it.
             | 
             | First it was efficiany with elderly in the study, were the
             | numbers were totally misunderstood. Then it was overall
             | effectiveness, then prevention of severe cases. The list
             | goes on. In the meanwhile, the press is reporting every
             | single rash people get with AZ.
             | 
             | EDIT: Just checked, they found 7 cases of thrombosis in the
             | brain, out of 1.6 million vaccinated people. Well, we'll
             | see how that develops.
        
               | danpalmer wrote:
               | The AZ vaccine is also the only not-for-profit vaccine.
        
               | mns wrote:
               | So we've been in a 5 month lockdown already in Germany,
               | all of it to stop the spread of the virus with huge costs
               | to the country, and now the comment that I replied to is
               | saying that "I think this is part of political cover for
               | the failing". Meaning that Germany and the EU, which have
               | been doing everything that they can to stop this, are now
               | somehow involved in a political cover to get some sort of
               | revenge on the UK/AstraZeneca at the cost of the people
               | that would be affected by COVID?
        
               | high_derivative wrote:
               | But they did not do everything they can. They did not
               | expedite AZ vaccine approval, they are messing up the
               | rollout, they tried to negotiate prices instead of
               | securing vaccines at all costs. They made a whole theatre
               | about AZ deliveries and almost created an international
               | crisis around Ireland..but no, no political aspect to it,
               | none at all..
               | 
               | I don't think they are trying to get revenge. They are
               | trying to cover for their own failings. By any reasonable
               | means, the vaccine rollout in continental Europe in
               | relation to the wealth and logistics available compared
               | to US/UK is a complete failure.
        
               | detaro wrote:
               | so how does further slowing vaccine progress, making it
               | even less likely they'll meet the adjusted goals and
               | anouncements, "cover for their failings", especially if
               | there is a good chance it'll turn out it was unnecessary?
               | At least right now people's reaction for sure isn't "oh
               | too bad then, not your fault".
        
               | finiteseries wrote:
               | AZ vaccine is flawed => slow rollout isn't bad after all,
               | maybe even a _good thing_ in the end.
               | 
               | Goals and announcements have already been missed, and it
               | turning out to be unnecessary can be muddied, or buried.
               | 
               | Assuming this is indeed politics, there are a lot of
               | positives to this type of move in an already shit
               | situation.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | As I said, no idea whether or not something is wrong with
               | the AZ vaccine.
               | 
               | And yes, governments are doing everything they can. And
               | the screw up with vaccinations. No idea why, because I
               | don't have all the details, but maybe AZ is just coming
               | in time to have been 1) a good scape goat early on when
               | one was needed during the frustration with vaccine
               | deliveries 2) bad at PR 3) earned a bad rep and now
               | everybody is over cautious. And public / media pressure
               | isn't really helping.
        
               | bobcostas55 wrote:
               | >which have been doing everything that they can to stop
               | this
               | 
               | Except, you know, order enough vaccines for their
               | population. Other than that though, everything that they
               | can!
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Well, as of early January the EU ordered almost twice as
               | many doses as needed. They, and by that I mean the member
               | states more than the EU, screwed up the distribution and
               | vaccination campaigns.
        
           | lm28469 wrote:
           | > We're too slow so we're going to ban half of our vaccine
           | supply
           | 
           | Am I missing something, how's that supposed to help ?
        
         | h3cate wrote:
         | The UK has been in lockdown for the last 3 months. If cases are
         | dropping the vaccine is not likely to be the main reason why.
        
         | sjwest wrote:
         | Its unfortunate they felt the need to stop the administration
         | of this vaccine, as this will only further slow down vaccine
         | distribution in Germany/Europe. I think you've got it spot on
         | there - it stinks of politically motivated attack, but I'm not
         | clear how this could benefit Germany's politicians slowing down
         | the administration of the vaccine? Maybe they can use this as
         | an excuse for the poor administration rates???
         | 
         | BTW I literally just had the Astra Zenica vaccine here in UK -
         | I have a sore arm, lets hope I don't get any of the reported
         | side effects!
        
           | DanBC wrote:
           | There's a few things that might be happening.
           | 
           | Germany has high rates of vaccine hesitancy. One way to
           | tackle that is to be extra cautious. So, as soon as there's
           | information about problems the vaccination programme is
           | halted, an investigation is carried out, accurate and clear
           | information is then presented showing rates of harm in
           | unvaccinated and vaccinated people, and the programme is
           | restarted.
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | Yes, in deed we have. As does France.
        
               | neuronic wrote:
               | Historically interesting: In the Soviet GDR there was a
               | 95%+ vaccination rate and people trust Russian/Soviet
               | vaccine science (I am from the region). Introducing
               | Sputnik V to Germany may boost vaccine acceptance in the
               | East.
               | 
               | The majority of the vocal deniers is localized around
               | Munich btw, same with homeopathy advocates. Not sure why
               | that is but I suspect 1888's medicine book by Eduard
               | Bilz, which was extremely popular in Germany, could play
               | a role (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilz-Buch).
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | I never considered that angle. I wouldn't mind if Sputnik
               | V would be certified in the EU as well. The more vaccines
               | the better. And the faster we get out shit together here,
               | the faster poorer countries can get their doses as well.
               | Which was the EU plan anyway, at least initially.
        
           | Nursie wrote:
           | A bunch of friends of mine have spent a couple of days pretty
           | whacked by it. Tiredness and a few headaches mostly.
           | 
           | Make sure to get plenty of water and rest :)
        
             | Zenst wrote:
             | Get them to look at https://yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/ and
             | report their side effects. That's the UK system for
             | reporting side effects in medications of any form.
             | 
             | Also weekly report of the covid-19 vaccine side effects
             | here:
             | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-
             | covid...
             | 
             | Had my jab 3 hours ago, and enjoying a nice honey dew
             | pomelo as I type thinking, fruit just don't get any better
             | than this.
        
               | Nursie wrote:
               | Interesting, will bring that up next time someone says
               | something. Ta.
        
               | wdb wrote:
               | I didn't know that existed. Wondering if it also lists
               | the side effects I experienced of medication when
               | hospitalised at a NHS hospital?
        
               | _Microft wrote:
               | Just because we are at a medical topic and you are
               | mentioning pomelos: they contain a substance (naringin)
               | that can interfere with certain drugs. Just fyi
        
             | tonyedgecombe wrote:
             | I think it's quite common to get flu like symptoms. Several
             | people in my family did.
        
         | throwaway4good wrote:
         | It could also be driven by money.
         | 
         | The alternative Pzifer jab is 10-20 times as expensive.
         | 
         | That is a lot money, some of which may find its way to work the
         | media and the decision makers.
        
           | throwaway4good wrote:
           | AZ is no-profit for now. I don't think Pfizer is.
           | 
           | https://www.ft.com/content/c474f9e1-8807-4e57-9c79-6f4af145b.
           | ..
           | 
           | AstraZeneca vaccine document shows limit of no-profit pledge
           | 
           | Company has right under contract to declare pandemic over by
           | July 2021
        
         | drcode wrote:
         | A problem with bureaucracies is that they often care deeply if
         | people die from an action they are responsible for, but are
         | fine if there are massive deaths due to inaction.
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | The solution is simple though: politicians simply ask experts
           | how many people die if they do X versus Y, and make sure it
           | is recorded (e.g. by journalists) so they can refer to it
           | later.
        
             | levosmetalo wrote:
             | Now as a politician, you just need to find the right expert
             | that will recommend you whatever you want to do.
        
               | amelius wrote:
               | Of course you ask a reputable one, e.g. head of CDC etc.
               | otherwise prepare to get in trouble with journalists.
        
               | DiggyJohnson wrote:
               | > of course you ask a reputable one
               | 
               | What if that turns out to be more difficult than you
               | originally realized.
        
             | dahfizz wrote:
             | Even assuming this utilitarian viewpoint is the correct
             | one, you're putting a lot of faith in the general
             | population to trust the experts / journalists and to be un-
             | emotional when examining the facts.
        
           | justapassenger wrote:
           | Because you can very easily destroy public trust medicines if
           | you approve something unsafe, even if in grand scheme of
           | things, it was better for humans. Just look at
           | antivaccination movement, and imagine how many more people
           | would be there if their claims were actually supported by
           | data.
           | 
           | Humans aren't rational.
        
             | blablabla123 wrote:
             | Practically the last half year of Germany's corona policy
             | is influenced by the anti vaccination movement. It's really
             | annoying, on the other hand I think the anti vaxxers seemed
             | to have stopped all major public appearances. So at least
             | one positive thing.
        
           | subltemelt wrote:
           | It's interesting because I feel the opposite as an acute care
           | doctor in the US. If I give a medication, or get a scan, or
           | whatever, and the patient has an adverse reaction, it's the
           | medication/scan's fault. If I don't give the medication,
           | don't get the scan, and something bad happens, it's my fault.
           | At least that's how people see it for now. Leads to a lot of
           | over-treatment and extra unnecessary testing in my opinion,
           | especially around COVID (for example, I frequently see high-
           | dose dexamethasone given for longer than 10 days or given to
           | normoxic patients, despite the recommendation being for 6 mg
           | daily for 10 days, and only for patients requiring oxygen).
        
             | amelius wrote:
             | So a more accurate description is: politicians care deeply
             | if people die from an action (or inaction) that went
             | against the public opinion.
        
               | dahfizz wrote:
               | To take this further, public opinion cares much more
               | about action than inaction.
               | 
               | A handful of unjust police killings cause widespread
               | protest / riot / unrest, but 15,000 unprevented homicides
               | are largely accepted as part of life.
               | 
               | You can argue that they are morally equivalent, but our
               | brains get more angry at someone doing a bad thing than
               | at someone not doing a good thing.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | I thought that methylprednisolone was now preferred over
             | dexamethasone for COVID-19 treatment.
             | 
             | https://covid19criticalcare.com/medical-
             | evidence/methylpredn...
        
             | throwaway0a5e wrote:
             | Exactly. You care if people die on your lawn. So you give
             | out medication, do scans, etc. so that if people die they
             | do it on someone else's lawn. It's ass-covering all the way
             | down.
        
               | andyjohnson0 wrote:
               | > You care if people die on your lawn.
               | 
               | I don't know how you know that. Given the significant
               | time and effort required to become a doctor, isn't it at
               | least as likely that they are motivated about people
               | _not_ dying on _any_ lawn?
        
             | drcode wrote:
             | What you say makes complete sense, I'd argue the incentives
             | are different for government agencies, however.
        
             | jayd16 wrote:
             | >If I give a medication, or get a scan, or whatever, and
             | the patient has an adverse reaction, it's the
             | medication/scan's fault.
             | 
             | What about the Hippocratic oath? First do no harm.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | StavrosK wrote:
               | I mean, it doesn't actually say that, it says "I will do
               | no harm" and "I will abstain from all intentional
               | wrongdoing". That doesn't mean that doing nothing is
               | fine, because you didn't do harm.
        
           | mrtksn wrote:
           | Almost as if people are doing their jobs then?
           | 
           | I don't think that beurocrats are supposed to be leaders. The
           | elected officials should be pushing for the change, not the
           | people who run the operations.
        
             | lxgr wrote:
             | The cliche of the EU is that it's bureaucrats all the way
             | up, though.
             | 
             | Of course this is an exaggeration, but there is a somewhat
             | disturbing neglect of EU elections, functions and political
             | appointments in the public view (it's seen as less
             | prestigious than national/federal elections in many EU
             | member states).
             | 
             | As a result, it's a climate that doesn't always attract and
             | get the leadership it really needs (given that the EU
             | formally and practically overrules legislation and
             | jurisdiction of member states).
        
           | thepangolino wrote:
           | How do you explain the lockdowns then?
        
             | drcode wrote:
             | Lockdowns are enforced inaction, so the logic is
             | counterintuitive in that case.
        
           | rebuilder wrote:
           | It's not just bureaucracies. People in general prefer bad
           | outcomes due to inaction to bad outcomes due to action. See:
           | trolley problem.
        
           | lastofthemojito wrote:
           | Feels similar to government IT risk aversion that I've seen.
           | Folks are afraid to approve a new piece of software, or a new
           | version, or a hotfix or whatever, because what if it goes
           | awry and causes problems? But little weight seems to be put
           | on "what if we keep running the same version we've been
           | running for years and now that there's a known vulnerability,
           | someone exploits it?".
        
             | kitd wrote:
             | "Better the devil you know" etc etc
        
           | ampdepolymerase wrote:
           | Exhibit A, the FDA when it comes to new drug approvals.
        
           | yowlingcat wrote:
           | Oof. I think you strike upon a generally accurate point.
           | Thinking about how this applies to all sorts of bureaucracies
           | now (including corporate ones)
        
           | kspacewalk2 wrote:
           | Well, yeah. First, do no harm. It's not ethically acceptable
           | to kill or seriously hurt a bunch of otherwise healthy people
           | in order to plow on through with vaccination that'll save a
           | bunch of other people. Especially since there are many other
           | vaccine types, the issue with AZ could be a tainted batch
           | instead of a fundamental problem with AZ per se, etc.
        
           | numpad0 wrote:
           | I'm not sure if it's bureaucracy or human nature, as
           | government procedures had been responsive to the pandemic,
           | and pressure to urge inactions have been overriding the pre-
           | pandemic determined actions.
        
             | drcode wrote:
             | Pretty much all the responses of the government that were
             | done quickly were to prevent action (i.e. no going to
             | restaurants, no flights to certain areas, etc) so I'd argue
             | that that also represents "inaction", just in a roundabout
             | way.
        
               | mikem170 wrote:
               | Right. They were playing it safe, as opposed to having to
               | defend themselves some day in the future for not playing
               | it safe.
               | 
               | This would explain why the Swedish state were so heavily
               | criticised for not locking down. Also would explain the
               | UK government arresting people for being outdoors
               | (there's not really any data supporting outdoor
               | transmission, that I know of).
        
         | Nursie wrote:
         | I'm not sure at this point. When it was one suspicious death,
         | countries suspending the vaccine definitely seemed like an
         | overreaction, and unfortunately this particular vaccine has
         | been something of a political football and subject of a lot of
         | noise.
         | 
         | But as more blood-clot deaths emerge... you gotta think caution
         | is wise.
         | 
         | OTOH yes, we in the UK have administered a _lot_ of this stuff,
         | and you 'd think someone would have noticed a serious side
         | effect like this. So far reports from the UK seem to show no
         | greater incidence of blood clot problems than would be expected
         | without the vaccine.
         | 
         | Difficult to call, but I hope it's all being investigated
         | thoroughly.
        
           | yokaze wrote:
           | > But as more blood-clot deaths emerge... you gotta think
           | caution is wise.
           | 
           | I would challenge the term "caution", as it implies giving
           | the vaccine is more risky than not.
           | 
           | > Difficult to call, but I hope it's all being investigated
           | thoroughly
           | 
           | I agree there. But rather not for medical reasons.
        
             | Nursie wrote:
             | > I would challenge the term "caution", as it implies
             | giving the vaccine is more risky than not.
             | 
             | I suppose it depends on the alternative - if it's "not
             | having the vaccine" clearly that's worse. If it's
             | "controlling the death rate by prolonging lockdowns" then
             | that's clearly not desirable either, but not quite as bad.
             | 
             | If it's just "give a different vaccine", then that would be
             | no problem. Of course then there are the supply issues it's
             | unlikely that simple.
        
             | ipaddr wrote:
             | It may be more risky for a certain population (it looks
             | like younger people). We just don't know yet.
             | 
             | The majority of people getting the vaccinations are older.
             | Perhaps we will see more cases will emerge for the younger
             | age groups.
        
           | WanderPanda wrote:
           | > Difficult to call, but I hope it's all being investigated
           | thoroughly.
           | 
           | Important point! I start to get anxiety that there might be
           | some Chernobyl level incompetence building up in our
           | bureaucratic countries. I feel like we are getting to levels
           | of a huge quantities of regulations, where then to unblock
           | the process, relevant regulations are relaxed to be able to
           | move forward, leaving us with a lot of regulations that make
           | us feel safe, while the elephant in the room is building up
           | through other valves. I fell like the 737 max thing also more
           | or less fits this framework. So for the future: Let them
           | incentives be aligned and them regulations work in the right
           | direction!
        
           | drcode wrote:
           | > Difficult to call, but I hope it's all being investigated
           | thoroughly.
           | 
           | We don't have time for that, we can't wait for some
           | government panel to announce in 2025 "actually the blood
           | clots were no more common than in the general population"
        
             | h3cate wrote:
             | Most countries are pausing rollout for 2 weeks. After over
             | a year of covid 2 weeks won't make a big difference.
        
             | Nursie wrote:
             | > We don't have time for that
             | 
             | I hope it's being invested thoroughly _by the people that
             | know this stuff inside out, from AZ, Oxford and doctors on
             | the ground where this has happened_
             | 
             | Damn right a government panel is useless here!
        
           | clawoo wrote:
           | > we in the UK have administered a lot of this stuff, and
           | you'd think someone would have noticed a serious side effect
           | like this
           | 
           | Apparently EU vaccines are produced in Europe, maybe there's
           | something wrong in the local production facilities that's
           | causing this. UK has only used AZ vaccines produced in the
           | UK, afaik.
        
             | Nursie wrote:
             | Could be, yes, the production issues a couple of months
             | back were centred around a plant in Belgium, I wonder if
             | perhaps all is still not well there?
        
           | DanBC wrote:
           | https://twitter.com/Cox_A_R/status/1371485854846320640?s=20
           | 
           | > I don't know anyone in pharmacovigilance who thinks what is
           | happening now in EU states is rational based on known
           | information.
           | 
           | > EMA had this right last week. We are seeing panic spread at
           | EU state level.
           | 
           | https://twitter.com/isth/status/1370424157947752452
           | 
           | > The [International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis]
           | recommends all eligible adults continue to receive the
           | #COVID19 vaccine, despite recent decisions by some countries
           | to at least temporarily suspend the use of the AstraZeneca
           | vaccine due to reports of thrombosis. Read the full statement
           | here: https://isth.org/news/556057
        
           | afavour wrote:
           | > But as more blood-clot deaths emerge... you gotta think
           | caution is wise.
           | 
           | Last I saw it's 30 blood-clot deaths. Given the number of
           | people that have received the vaccine that's a tiny, tiny
           | amount. Even if those 30 were directly linkable to the
           | vaccine (and so far no such link has been proven) you could
           | still make the argument that the benefits of mass
           | vaccinations outweigh the concern.
           | 
           | I don't envy anyone in charge of making those choices,
           | though.
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | Some anti baby pills cause 8-12 trombose cases in 10,000
             | women. And they are properly tested, approved and on the
             | market.
             | 
             | Usually I don't read notes coming with meds, but I am
             | almost sure that even everyday stuff has potentially deadly
             | side effects in the ball park number of the blood cloths AZ
             | is causing.
        
               | josefx wrote:
               | > And they are properly tested, approved and on the
               | market.
               | 
               | And there would probably be an investigation into that
               | the moment people using them showed up growing a third
               | arm instead of getting a trombose.
        
             | petre wrote:
             | If it only happened on the continent and there really is an
             | issue, it might lie with one or more batches from the
             | Belgian factory. My country has only halted the allegedly
             | problematic batch. The UK has been using the domestically
             | manufactured vaccine without issue.
        
         | dcolkitt wrote:
         | Well, you see fifty years a few thousand birth defects occurred
         | because one drug was approved too fast. Therefore millions now
         | have to needlessly die while perfectly good vaccines go stale.
        
           | Barrin92 wrote:
           | this is awful first order thinking. If public authorities are
           | perceived as untrustworthy on the safety of vaccines, there's
           | a very high chance there will be widespread rejection of
           | vaccination altogether in the population.
           | 
           | People aren't utilitarian machines, trust in drugs is very
           | easily broken, vaccines in particular. Showing neglect and
           | lack of precaution may harm vaccination efforts for decades.
        
           | mcintyre1994 wrote:
           | > Nearly 60 years ago thalidomide was prescribed to treat
           | morning sickness in pregnant women. What followed was the
           | biggest man-made medical disaster ever, where over 10,000
           | children were born with a range of severe and debilitating
           | malformations.
           | 
           | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26043938/
           | 
           | > The thalidomide scandal may have led to 10,000
           | miscarriages, stillbirths and infant deaths in Britain,
           | according to the former director of the trust that oversees
           | payments to hundreds of people disabled by the drug taken by
           | their pregnant mothers.
           | 
           | https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/06/thalidomide-.
           | ..
           | 
           | IMO you're playing the effect of that down a bit by saying "a
           | few thousand birth defects occurred".
        
             | the8472 wrote:
             | And yet it's fewer deaths than due to overly cautious
             | vaccine approvals.
        
               | Arnt wrote:
               | How do you know that _before the cautious testing and
               | approval procedure_?
               | 
               | The EU recently approvied and has bought 200M J&J
               | vaccines, I don't remember numbers of the other vaccines.
               | If that vaccine were about as harmful as thalidomide,
               | about 3000 babies would die during birth, and a
               | considerably larger number would be born without an arm
               | or similar.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Vaccines are not that different just because they are for
               | different sickness. And there are no vaccines with any of
               | these side effects, so there is no reason to believe the
               | COVID vaccines will cause anything even close to that.
               | Besides the normal stuff every drug has.
        
               | the8472 wrote:
               | Without hindsight we can still see that countries
               | differed in approval timelines by a month even though
               | they should have the same information available at the
               | same time. Which means either one is taking more risks
               | than necessary or another one is wasting time (and thus
               | lives).
               | 
               | And that's just approval, then there's the whole issue
               | with the EU taking too long to negotiate lower prices
               | instead of pre-paying for faster production ramp-up.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | s_dev wrote:
         | It's entirely possible a facility is producing vaccine that
         | isn't up to QA standards i.e. a bad batch.
         | 
         | The Irish reasoning for suspending AZ wasn't just because of
         | blood clots but blood clots in the brain which have a
         | completley different severity.
        
           | DrBazza wrote:
           | > In terms of quality, there are also no confirmed issues
           | related to any batch of our vaccine used across Europe, or
           | the rest of the world.
           | 
           | https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-
           | releases/2021...
        
             | s_dev wrote:
             | Right but since when is "We investigated our data and found
             | no problems" sufficient -- only independent verification
             | will do.
        
         | oezi wrote:
         | Ratio is 50/50 Biontech/AstraZeneka.
        
           | s_dev wrote:
           | BioNTech partnered with Pfizer.
        
         | dan1234 wrote:
         | As I understand it, the ratio has been roughly 50/50 and there
         | have been 13 clotting cases with AZ and 15 with Pfizer.
         | 
         | Twitter thread with some commentary & sources:
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/Martin_Moder/status/1371033872046166025
        
         | calchris42 wrote:
         | We will at some point have vaccinated the true believers and be
         | left convincing the rest of the population to get their shots.
         | From that perspective, taking action to demonstrate that we are
         | being absolutely rigorous on the safety of the vaccines might
         | be the global optimal in terms of minimizing time to herd
         | immunity. Especially if we keep manufacturing the shots while
         | studying the data.
         | 
         | Just a thought with zero data behind it...
        
         | leto_ii wrote:
         | While I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your idea, couldn't
         | you make the opposite case as well? Namely that since the
         | AstraZeneca vaccine is mostly British, the government of that
         | country has an interest in hiding/downplaying potentially
         | harmful side-effects?
         | 
         | As far as I know by now a bunch of European countries have
         | already suspended vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine.
         | These include France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands - not
         | really a politically homogeneous bunch.
        
           | s_dev wrote:
           | >These include France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands -
           | not really a politically homogeneous bunch.
           | 
           | Litterally all members of the same economic and political
           | Union. The EU.
        
             | leto_ii wrote:
             | Sure, but the EU is not a federation. There are still many
             | divergent interests between these nations. Take the
             | Netherlands and Italy for example - not a lot of agreement
             | between those two, usually that is. They do seem to agree
             | on AstraZeneca though.
        
           | Frypa wrote:
           | This. I've lived in both Germany and UK and from my humble
           | experience with both the government and the health standards,
           | I think it's more likely the UK/AZ are downplaying this. It
           | could be that they are right and the impact is minimal given
           | that millions of people have been vaccinated. But I do
           | believe the german version here more. The tory government
           | can't be trusted.
        
             | alecco wrote:
             | Are you saying the NHS is complicit in hiding deaths due to
             | vaccines?
        
         | xgb84j wrote:
         | The ethical issue is that the people dying from COVID and the
         | people who might have an adverse reaction from the vaccination
         | are not the same people.
         | 
         | If mostly old people die from COVID but the adverse reaction of
         | the vaccine is independent of age, then for very young people
         | the risk of an adverse reaction of the vaccination might
         | outweigh the risk of permanent damage from COVID.
        
           | ralfn wrote:
           | Yeah. As someone not in any risk group I will prefer the
           | Pfizer or Moderna one. I'll be happy to get the Janssen one
           | or even the Sputnik, but if the vaccine they offer me is AZ
           | then I will refuse.
           | 
           | And not just because of the obviously higher risk associated,
           | but also because it appears not to be effective against the
           | new strains. (Especially the new South Africa strain). Unlike
           | for example the Janssen vaccine (goes by their parent company
           | of Johnson and Johnson in the US) which was actually
           | validated in South Africa or the rna ones which are just a
           | technical masterpiece.
           | 
           | Keep in mind that the real shortage of vaccines is production
           | locations right now. And the type of production of the
           | Janssen, AZ and the Sputnik vaccine is all similar. So why
           | even produce more of the worst vaccine in any of these
           | locations.
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | Sputnik is not approved, manufacturers are cooperating for
             | all the other vaccines already.
             | 
             | Regarding the strains, all vaccines are less effective
             | against the South African one.
        
           | TheCoelacanth wrote:
           | But if these reactions are a result of the vaccine, it has to
           | be at an extremely low rate of people vaccinated. Even the
           | small rate of death from COVID for young people is going to
           | be higher than that risk.
        
         | s9w wrote:
         | There hasn't been a single corona death in Germany
        
         | complex1314 wrote:
         | In Norway at least, where we have high compliance and
         | relatively few corona deaths, one important point is to keep
         | public trust in the authorities. The worst case scenario would
         | be loss of trust in the vaccine and loss of trust in the health
         | authorities. Then people would not get vaccinated even if the
         | authorities were recommending it.
         | 
         | Also the symptoms are bizarre, the deaths and hospitalizations
         | from blod clot have all been young health care workers in good
         | health with onset of symptoms a few days after getting their
         | first shot. They have all had low platelet count which is very
         | unusual with blood clots and complicates treatment immensely
         | because the standard thrombolytic treatment is then not safe to
         | use.
        
           | jansan wrote:
           | Do I see this correctly that Norway has about 2 COVID-19
           | deaths per day on average recently? If so the governments is
           | doing the absolutely right thing. Not halting vaccination
           | with AZ would be highly irresponsible.
        
             | marvin wrote:
             | That is approximately right. Total death toll from Covid is
             | 640 from a population of 5.3 million.
        
           | happyconcepts wrote:
           | Wow. Then we should look more closely at the glymphatic
           | system no?
        
         | bananaowl wrote:
         | According to these reports hosted on gov.uk there are reports
         | of fatalities and reactions.
         | 
         | Pfizer:
         | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
         | 
         | AstraZeneca:
         | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
         | 
         | Disclaimer from UK.gov:
         | 
         | Part of our monitoring role includes reviewing reports of
         | suspected side effects. Any member of the public or health
         | professional can submit suspected side effects through the
         | Yellow Card scheme. The nature of Yellow Card reporting means
         | that reported events are not always proven side effects. Some
         | events may have happened anyway, regardless of vaccination.
         | This is particularly the case when millions of people are
         | vaccinated, and especially when most vaccines are being given
         | to the most elderly people and people who have underlying
         | illness.
         | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid...
         | 
         | Edit: Added disclaimer from UK.gov
        
           | andybak wrote:
           | 1 fatal case of Immune thrombocytopenia for AstraZeneca 1 of
           | Thrombocytopenia for Pfizer
           | 
           | Slightly different reporting periods but I'm pretty happy
           | with the odds and I'd take either if offered.
        
             | nerbert wrote:
             | Much better odds than covid anyway.
        
           | systemvoltage wrote:
           | I don't see any problem with reporting official information.
           | 
           | Can we please fucking stop the downvotes?
        
           | stupidcar wrote:
           | An explanation of the above reports, including why they can't
           | be used to make any inference about the safety of the
           | vaccines:
           | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-
           | covid...
        
             | bananaowl wrote:
             | Not quite sure why I'm getting downvoted for publishing
             | those two links, but hey :)
             | 
             | Anyway, here's the UK's disclaimer from the Yellow Card
             | summary link you posted.
             | 
             | Part of our monitoring role includes reviewing reports of
             | suspected side effects. Any member of the public or health
             | professional can submit suspected side effects through the
             | Yellow Card scheme. The nature of Yellow Card reporting
             | means that reported events are not always proven side
             | effects. Some events may have happened anyway, regardless
             | of vaccination. This is particularly the case when millions
             | of people are vaccinated, and especially when most vaccines
             | are being given to the most elderly people and people who
             | have underlying illness.
        
           | DrBazza wrote:
           | There's no guidance on how to read that.
           | 
           | I suspect it's probably "possible side effects and deaths
           | within 28 days of administering a vaccine", in the same way
           | that the UK records "deaths within 28 days of a positive
           | COVID test". One does not imply the other was the cause.
           | (edit) other commenter points to the official UK docs.
           | 
           | Even with that information, you need to know the non-vaccine
           | incidence of the illnesses in that report to make any
           | meaningful comparison and assessment of the efficacy of the
           | vaccine. Which is what I rely on scientists to do.
           | 
           | From the horse's mouth:
           | 
           | Ann Taylor, Chief Medical Officer, said: "Around 17 million
           | people in the EU and UK have now received our vaccine, and
           | the number of cases of blood clots reported in this group is
           | lower than the hundreds of cases that would be expected among
           | the general population. The nature of the pandemic has led to
           | increased attention in individual cases and we are going
           | beyond the standard practices for safety monitoring of
           | licensed medicines in reporting vaccine events, to ensure
           | public safety."
           | 
           | https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-
           | releases/2021...
        
       | rurban wrote:
       | So far they only vaccinated older people with it. These
       | complications all happened in younger people where we don't have
       | a coverage if millions. More like a few thousands.
       | 
       | Thanksfully Germany acted now rationally, like the other
       | countries. One idea would be to administer only half the dosis on
       | younger people, as this was already tested, with much better
       | results than with the full dosis. AZ is pretty strong, compared
       | to the others.
        
       | whyenot wrote:
       | Vaccine skepticism is already very high in many European
       | countries, including Germany. Vaccination doesn't work if 1/3 to
       | 1/2 the population doesn't want to get the vaccine because they
       | are afraid of the side effects. There may be some value in
       | governments showing citizens how cautious they are being, even if
       | it is not necessarily warranted based on the number of adverse
       | reactions.
        
       | systemvoltage wrote:
       | The PR damage alone from this move is undeniably going to cause
       | an unimaginable amount of loss. People who were on the fence of
       | taking the vaccine have just solidified on their decision.
        
         | donovanian wrote:
         | The PR damage happens when authorities engage in noble lying
         | and all of this weird non-transparent messaging.
         | 
         | Public health really hasn't been upfront with a lot, and their
         | back and forth on a number of issues, while maintaining this
         | air of authority is ultimately counter-productive to building
         | trust.
        
       | fasteddie31003 wrote:
       | The pandemic has made me believe we need to be greater
       | consiquentalists in our polices. It's pretty obvious that on the
       | whole the AstraZeneca vax will save more people than are killed
       | from the side effects. We don't not live in a 0 risk existence.
        
         | hnedeotes wrote:
         | > We don't not live in a 0 risk existence.
         | 
         | ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ah
        
         | corndoge wrote:
         | Is that obvious? If you have the choice between self
         | quarantining and trying to avoid contracting a virus that, if
         | contracted, has a low percentage of killing you, vs choosing to
         | get a vaccine that also has a low percentage of killing you,
         | why would you choose the vaccine?
        
           | dcolkitt wrote:
           | This is like saying you should never leave your house,
           | because you could die in a car accident. (And the chance of
           | dying from the AZ vaccine is at most the chance of dying
           | driving to vaccination site.)
        
             | corndoge wrote:
             | No, it's not like saying that
        
           | scotty79 wrote:
           | Because one "low" is few orders of magnitude lower than other
           | "low".
        
             | corndoge wrote:
             | Right, but that's assuming you get the virus; to properly
             | compare it you have to factor the chance you contract the
             | virus in the first place. I'm not saying the math works out
             | better, I haven't done it myself, but I'd bet most people
             | would choose to try to avoid contracting
        
               | Broken_Hippo wrote:
               | Yeah, I'm willing to avoid contracting the virus... by
               | getting the vaccine, which certainly isn't as deadly as
               | the virus has been. It isn't just the kill rate, though:
               | I truly want to avoid the long-term complications that
               | some folks are getting. I'll avoid the suffering that
               | comes with the virus too, even without the complications.
        
               | shawabawa3 wrote:
               | most people in my experience are fed up of trying to
               | avoid contracting and would rather the much lower risk of
               | vaccine (bare in mind 10+m people have received this
               | vaccine in the UK with no known issues)
        
           | Cu3PO42 wrote:
           | Maybe because one probability is significantly lower than the
           | other. Maybe because you just can't self quarantine because
           | you cannot work from home. Maybe because you need to take
           | care of other family members and don't want to put them at
           | risk.
           | 
           | There's a lot of good reasons for choosing a vaccine even if
           | the risk isn't strictly zero. And you also need to remember
           | that receiving vaccination isn't mandatory. If you personally
           | aren't comfortable with the risks you don't have to get
           | vaccinated.
           | 
           | This makes me skeptical of the suspension, but I'm not an
           | export on these matters and haven't done enough research to
           | claim to have done my due diligence, so I'll refrain from
           | either advocating for or against this step.
        
         | onetimemanytime wrote:
         | Ummmm....we can wait and get another vaccine? The vaccine is
         | done on HEALTHY people, we're not talking about meds on
         | terminal stage cancer patients with nothing to lose.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | totalZero wrote:
           | You can also just expose yourself to the virus and build
           | immunity that way. Up to you.
        
             | onetimemanytime wrote:
             | Nope. They are options, like quarantine, masks, different
             | vaccines. It's not "this vaccine right now or death."
             | 
             | The most sensible thing is to investigate this, maybe more
             | _without_ the vaccine died from thrombosis, but need to
             | see.
        
             | Broken_Hippo wrote:
             | THat works great if you don't die.
             | 
             | That doesn't work so great if you don't die and have
             | lifelong complications, though. It doesn't work so great if
             | you get it and kill your child/grandmother either.
             | 
             | It doesn't work so well if you have to catch the virus
             | multiple times to have immunity either (folks aren't always
             | immune after catching it). Not to mention the unknowns with
             | mutations of the virus.
             | 
             | It is seriously much better to try to avoid catching the
             | virus at all. The virus means you might be ok... or you
             | might die, or you might have a lifetime of suffering that
             | you wouldn't get with a vaccine.
        
           | fasteddie31003 wrote:
           | Ummmm... I already have been vaccinated and it feels amazing
           | not having a fear of death over me. Guess what. I'm going on
           | vacation to a beach in a few weeks because you know, science.
        
             | onetimemanytime wrote:
             | I hope not, but those can be famous last words. Even if AZ
             | works as marketed, it's no where near 100%. Then we have
             | different strains
        
               | fasteddie31003 wrote:
               | Nothing is going to ever be 100% safe. Live your life how
               | you want, but I'm personally fine with a little risk and
               | live a more fulfilling life with more life experiences. I
               | ride a motorcycle. It's defiantly not safe, but I've had
               | so many great memories on it that I am fine with the
               | risk.
        
               | totalZero wrote:
               | Plenty of motorcyclists forget to keep the rubber side
               | down, get hurt, then continue riding after recuperating
               | from injuries.
               | 
               | Still, the consequences for those unfortunate riders can
               | stay with them throughout life.
               | 
               | Ride safe.
        
               | mikem170 wrote:
               | What you said about different strains has never been more
               | than click-bait and conjecture. Please stopping spreading
               | this, people are scared enough already. This is not how
               | t-cell immunity and coronaviruses work [0].
               | 
               | From an article titled "Lab studies suggest Pfizer,
               | Moderna vaccines can protect against coronavirus variant"
               | I quote:
               | 
               | "While the blood serum samples produced less neutralizing
               | antibody activity, it was still enough to neutralize the
               | virus, they wrote in a letter to the journal. This is in
               | line with other studies. And it's well within what is
               | seen with other viruses, one of the researchers said."
               | [1]
               | 
               | [0] https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+immunity+from+o
               | ther+co...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-
               | south-a...
        
         | isolli wrote:
         | Agreed, and the same argument can be applied _against_
         | lockdowns (meaning measures such as mandatory stay-at-home
         | orders that go beyond usual NPIs). I think it is slowly
         | emerging that hard lockdowns have done more harm than good.
         | There is no zero risk in life.
        
           | esperent wrote:
           | There's a big difference here though - when it comes to a
           | vaccine, we have hard stats to define the risk/reward ratio.
           | 
           | I believe it's likely that lockdowns may cause some deaths,
           | or possibly even lots of deaths. However, they certainly help
           | prevent the spread of deadly disease too and hence prevent
           | many deaths. We can probably get fairly definite numbers on
           | how many deaths lockdown prevents in a large population. I
           | don't think we can get similar numbers on how many they
           | cause. My gut says they probably prevent a lot more than they
           | cause, but I'd like to see any studies on this, if anyone has
           | a link to share.
        
             | donovanian wrote:
             | > What are you basing your claim about lockdown causing
             | death on?
             | 
             | It's pretty obvious there's a profound psychological,
             | developmental (children), and economic toll of lockdowns.
             | 
             | For anyone that's below 60 or so, it's very clear they've
             | got net negative effects on their life from draconian
             | across the board measures that go on this long.
             | 
             | edit: wow immediately flagged? Is it verboten to mention
             | the simple fact of economic trade-offs in any decision we
             | make?
             | 
             | I'm not even saying that lockdowns are bad, I'm saying that
             | they have profound consequences that can't be brushed away
             | or ignored.
             | 
             | The fact that so many are reticent to even admit that is
             | why I think it's so important to mention it.
        
               | mikem170 wrote:
               | I agree with you. There is a lot of fear around this
               | topic, so I assume rather than engage with on the merits
               | people may be downvoting you in defence of their
               | emotions.
        
             | isolli wrote:
             | Fair question. In a sense, the evidence for vaccines is
             | upfront, while the evidence for lockdowns required the
             | careful accumulation of data. I would cite for instance the
             | paper by Ioannidis and co-authors [0].
             | 
             | "In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a
             | role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in
             | early 2020. We do not question the role of all public
             | health interventions, or of coordinated communications
             | about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional
             | benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures.
             | 
             | The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some
             | benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may
             | not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures.
             | More targeted public health interventions that more
             | effectively reduce transmissions may be important for
             | future epidemic control without the harms of highly
             | restrictive measures."
             | 
             | [0] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484
        
             | devthane wrote:
             | It probably depends where you are located. There are some
             | less developed countries countries that jumped the gun on
             | hard lockdowns without any sort of care infrastructure I
             | which people have died due to inability to get food or care
             | for births.
             | 
             | For a source https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.co
             | m/article/amp/...
             | 
             | I don't attempt to extend that to more developed countries
             | however. And I can't say they things wouldn't be worse if
             | they hadn't locked down, but according to a family I know
             | in Uganda, they were locked down before they had even one
             | case. I haven't done the research on whether that is true
             | or not so take it or leave it.
        
         | gotoeleven wrote:
         | As we have learned over the last year, doing a cost benefit
         | analysis on anything related to covid is the equivalent of
         | drowning your grandmother in a bathtub.
        
           | mikem170 wrote:
           | And not just financial costs, but quality of life costs. One
           | to two years of restrictions, quarantine, and/or lockdown is
           | a sizeable fraction of everyone's lives.
           | 
           | I feel bad for people in countries where people are even
           | restricted from being outdoors, despite hearing again and
           | again that outdoors is the safest place to be.
        
         | virgilp wrote:
         | In EU at least plenty of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are still
         | incoming, so there are actually alternatives to AZ.
         | 
         | Do not forget that these vaccines are still very new, plus
         | there's the possibility of a production issue with the AZ
         | vaccine that affects only part of the production; I wouldn't
         | say it's "politically-motivated" or a dumb idea to pause AZ
         | vaccinations until one does a deeper investigation; I
         | personally chose to avoid AZ due to a history of strokes in my
         | family, I preferred to reserve a spot on the Moderna list.
         | Better safe than sorry.
        
           | fasteddie31003 wrote:
           | It's the trolly problem. Pull the lever and kill one person.
           | Don't pull the lever and kill 3 people. I'm a lever puller.
        
             | Broken_Hippo wrote:
             | Only it isn't that simple.
             | 
             | Pull the lever, and the lever might do things you didn't
             | expect - like derail the last few cars. Don't pull the
             | lever, and people die for sure.
             | 
             | If you derail the last car and don't try to put it back
             | before the next train, you now suddenly have more folks
             | that don't trust the lever and avoid all trains, not just
             | the one you operate.
        
             | hatch_q wrote:
             | But the real risk here is that the lever will get stuck.
             | Even if 1 person dies from vaccine - it can create huge,
             | long-lasting case against vaccination, causing more people
             | to choose not to vaccinate and eventually killing a lot
             | more people.
             | 
             | There must be no doubts with vaccines, 100% trust in them
             | is essential.
        
               | fasteddie31003 wrote:
               | Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the great.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | In the US, ~160,000 people over the age of 85 have died while
         | 216 people under the age of 18 have died. Covid represents a
         | proportion of deaths from all causes of 13.5% for 85+ and 0.58%
         | under 18. The trend in between the age group extremes continues
         | in an expected way.
         | 
         | You can't make the same decisions about risks when you have one
         | side so skewed by age. There is absolutely no guarantee that
         | side effects from vaccination would be a preferable risk for
         | younger populations or that vaccination side effects would have
         | comparable age-related effects.
         | 
         | Covid response isn't a religion, it's not "we have to do
         | everything" or "we shouldn't do anything", responses need
         | reason not gut reactions.
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | 0.58% is an order of magnitude higher then 30 out of 17
           | million. Going by these numbers, AZ is still better than
           | COVID. And I doubt any worse than other vaccines.
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | That is an incorrect statistical comparison.
             | 
             | It is 0.58% of all _deaths_ being caused by covid. As in
             | 994 out of 1000 people under 18 died in the same period
             | from other things.
             | 
             | Compared to people who are _alive_ covid killed 0.000288%
             | (or 1 in 350,000) under 18s.
             | 
             | 30 in 17M is too few to have a reliable statistic, but that
             | comes out to 1 in 567,000.
             | 
             | If that holds, is age invariant, etc. etc. and ignoring the
             | time-based nature of the covid deaths, taking that vaccine
             | would represent a *50%* increase in death risk for under
             | 18s, which is just absurdly high. (it doesn't matter that
             | that 50% isn't exactly right, anything remotely close is an
             | unacceptable risk)
             | 
             | Statistics is hard.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Wouldn't taking the 1 in 567,000 risk eliminate the 1 in
               | 350,000 risk. Vaccine risk and disease risks don't stack.
               | But I could be mistaken, statistics is hard you know.
        
               | theaeolist wrote:
               | How is 1/350,000 a LOWER risk than 1/567,000? I don't get
               | it.
        
               | mikem170 wrote:
               | They are relatively close, enough so that unknowns may
               | change the equation. Are there more unknowns for covid in
               | young people, or more unknowns from the vaccines?
               | 
               | (I'm not commenting on how to solve this equation, just
               | pointing out other factors)
        
               | Kranar wrote:
               | One metric is the ratio of COVID deaths / total deaths
               | the other is COVID deaths / total population.
               | 
               | Since everyone is expected to get the vaccine, it's not
               | fair to compare COVID deaths / total deaths to vaccine
               | deaths / total population, you need to compare COVID
               | deaths / total population to vaccine deaths / total
               | population.
               | 
               | In this case, assuming the numbers posted are remotely
               | accurate, then this specific vaccine could end up being
               | far more dangerous to people under 18 years of age
               | compared to getting COVID and waiting it out for two
               | weeks.
               | 
               | We don't know and I'm not asserting one way or another.
               | I'm just saying that making comparisons is much more
               | difficult and nuanced than the straightforward naiive
               | approach.
        
         | h3cate wrote:
         | Why put people that are at low risk from covid at risk by
         | giving them a vaccine?
        
         | xgb84j wrote:
         | Yes, but those are different people that might be killed, which
         | makes it an ethical dilemma.
         | 
         | Depending on the type of adverse reaction, it might be safer
         | for young people to not get vaccinated at all or with a
         | different vaccine. (For example if the adverse reaction affects
         | mostly young people, while COVID affects mostly older people.)
        
           | WanderPanda wrote:
           | Thats why everyone should be free to chose to get vaccinated.
           | It is not fair to transfer the disease risk from old/risk
           | groups to (longterm) side-effect risks for young/healthy
           | people
        
             | dehrmann wrote:
             | It's a little cold, but the rollout targeting old people
             | first helps a lot with de-risking. It reminds me of the
             | group of people over 60 who worked on containing the
             | Fukushima reactor. That was more altruistic and would only
             | happen in some cultures, but it's a similar net outcome.
        
             | lxgr wrote:
             | > Thats why everyone should be free to chose to get
             | vaccinated.
             | 
             | Isn't that the case? At least in my country, there is no
             | obligation to take the vaccine, and even incentives (e.g.
             | being able to attend public events sooner) are seen very
             | critically.
        
               | h3cate wrote:
               | People in the UK are pushing for a vaccine passport that
               | people will need to be allowed into venues or travel.
               | Here's a story from today about BA introducing a passport
               | to travel - BBC News - Covid-19: British Airways plans
               | app-based travel pass
               | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56392570
        
               | ktybdr wrote:
               | There are definitely people with the view that they
               | should be mandatory and I've personally started to
               | encounter social pressure to get vaccinated, which I
               | don't want to do, because I lead a low-contact hermit's
               | life and the odds of dying from COVID which I probably
               | won't catch if I maintain my lifestyle a few more months
               | appears to be lower than the chance I'll die from a
               | vaccine that I definitely get
               | 
               | For my age cohort the chance of death from either is
               | infinitesimal but because of Bayes it might make sense to
               | continue to avoid both, but if I try to explain that to
               | my peers they might think I'm a Trump supporter, and as
               | everyone knows, Trump supporters should be shunned from
               | polite society (especially since the "insurrection"), so
               | I see this as a choice between social excommunication and
               | a questionable injection I don't want
               | 
               | Fun times
        
               | wbronitsky wrote:
               | I'm curious as to why you find the injection
               | questionable? From my understanding, all of the vaccines
               | approved in the US followed the same path every other
               | vaccine follows. The difference was that Covid is
               | everywhere, so stage 3 went really quickly, where it
               | could normally take many months or years for the
               | requisite amount of people to catch the disease in
               | question.
               | 
               | To me, these vaccines have been as rigorously tested as
               | they could be, and none of this was really ever about
               | people in your health category anyways, so that seems
               | irrelevant in the "utility of vaccination" argument.
               | 
               | I could be incorrect though, so I'm interested in your
               | unease and rejection of what I find to be sound science.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Assuming your odds of catching COVID is 1 in 1,000 that's
               | still a higher risk for any adult age group than the
               | vaccines. I doubt your risk of catching covid is actually
               | that low.
               | 
               | More importantly it's not just about avoiding death, a
               | bad case of COVID is terrible even if you survive. On top
               | of this you reduce the risk of spreading it to someone
               | else.
        
           | fasteddie31003 wrote:
           | No one is forcing you to get the vax. I would have personally
           | taken the Moderna vax months before the FDA approved it
           | because I was following the research closely.
        
             | mikem170 wrote:
             | I'm curious, were you able to find specific numbers for any
             | of the studies done for regulatory approval? The raw data
             | showing how many people got the drug, how many had side
             | effects, and how this compares to normal rates?
             | 
             | I haven't had any luck with that. I assume these numbers
             | are what the FDA is looking at. Possible side effects are
             | documented in the packaging for a drug, but that doesn't
             | qualify the risk without numbers. I'd prefer to know this
             | for any drug I'd consider using. I find it strange that
             | this data is so hard to find.
             | 
             | I ask because it sounds like you went pretty deep in the
             | vaccine you mentioned, maybe you bumped into this.
        
             | h3cate wrote:
             | Ha if only this were true. UK companies are requiring
             | employees have the vaccine and ba is requiring the vaccine
             | to travel.
        
       | yread wrote:
       | I've mentioned it in a comment in the previous thread but it's
       | not completely unexpected and with no causal link. Adenovirus
       | induced blood coagulation problems are known:
       | 
       | Adenovirus-induced thrombocytopenia: the role of von Willebrand
       | factor and P-selectin in mediating accelerated platelet clearance
       | 
       | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000649712...
       | 
       | You can see the number of reported cases across Europe in the
       | EUDRA Vigilance database (if you manage to get through the Oracle
       | BI interface and if it doesn't error out)
       | 
       | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/research-devel...
       | 
       | I don't understand why AstraZeneca doesn't just say: yeah blood
       | clots are a risk, incidence 1/100,000 and everyone can move on.
       | Why does everything needs to be so politicized with this vaccine.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | >Why does everything needs to be so politicized with this
         | vaccine
         | 
         | It is politicized because it effects more or less everyone on
         | the planet and people are setup to take popular things and turn
         | them into polarizing issues for political power in politicians
         | and social capital for ordinary people. This is how a whole lot
         | of people seek out happiness, by being "right" in their social
         | circles, especially in a way that shows them as superior to
         | large groups of others who are "wrong".
         | 
         | Social media preys intentionally or unintentionally on this
         | human psychological vulnerability (can we get a CVE on the
         | human psyche?) and every bit of media wants to sell you a
         | compelling story so they stoke the flames of A/B conflicts.
         | 
         | The mass psychology/mythology/philosophy of the day is based
         | around this crap and will turn anything into a "political"
         | issue and people just generally aren't well educated enough to
         | think independently or evaluate situations rationally on their
         | own so they allow their reason to be driven by systems which
         | are evolutionarily dependent on preying on addictive human
         | behavior.
        
       | gt565k wrote:
       | oh boy anti-vaxxing groups on FB are gonna eat this up
       | 
       | all things considered, that's pretty bad news if they fucked up
       | on some batches and people died because of poor QA
        
         | VBprogrammer wrote:
         | The anti-vax groups have been eating this up since before it
         | was even related to the AZ vaccination. There were posts about
         | medical professionals in the US who received the Pfizer vaccine
         | having similar issues shortly after having that injection.
        
           | jokethrowaway wrote:
           | Those cases actually happened (they've been reported by
           | reputable sources, not anti-vaxxers blogs), but nobody cared
           | because the numbers are small.
           | 
           | It's definitely weird to see countries reacting when this
           | happens with AZ.
        
             | VBprogrammer wrote:
             | Sure those cases happened. Of course in a country of 300
             | million people strange stuff happens every day.
             | 
             | What is more likely, that two independently developed and
             | tested vaccines using a different technique both have the
             | same rare side effect or that these things happen at a low
             | level in the population and are completely uncorrelated
             | with the vaccine?
        
         | rhino369 wrote:
         | They would eat it up if this was swept under the rug and it
         | later comes out there was a problem.
         | 
         | You can't cover up and refuse to investigate merely because the
         | investigation might have bad optics.
         | 
         | The worst case scenario is that there is problem, its gets
         | covered up, and then a few weeks later the problem kills people
         | and now the public has zero faith in vaccines.
        
       | maxerickson wrote:
       | It seems the rate of these conditions isn't any different for the
       | vaccinated than for the population (last bit of the article makes
       | this point).
       | 
       | What's the thought process here?
        
         | wyck wrote:
         | Most likely liability. Since all the AZ vaccines were rushed to
         | market they did not go through the regular channels of
         | approval, in some countries legislation had to be changed in
         | order to limit the liability of doctors/technicians and the
         | companies themselves.
         | 
         | I've personally seen the waiver forms send to doctors, and none
         | of the usual testing was done, including the effect on
         | youngsters, pregnant women, etc.
         | 
         | There is a very good reason we had these regulations in place
         | to begin with.
         | 
         | tl'dr: Governments have let AZ off the hook legally if side-
         | effects or worse occur.
        
         | rel2thr wrote:
         | Blood clots have a known set of causes and risk factors. If the
         | people getting these clots aren't people who normally would get
         | clots , it's cause for concern. The overall rate doesn't matter
         | much
        
         | dazc wrote:
         | EU leaders shooting themselves in the foot? Not sure what
         | thought goes into that scenario other than none at all?
         | 
         | WHO say no evidence of any risk
         | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56404542
        
         | detaro wrote:
         | Yeah, this seems to make no sense from the outside and the data
         | I've seen, which all puts this in fairly normal ranges. And not
         | enough transparency into the _why_ then IMHO. But well,
         | transparency into why this is supposed to make sense is
         | something sorely missing from German covid policies for a long
         | time now...
         | 
         | EDIT: as pointed out elsewhere, the official press release
         | gives us that there has been new data in the past few days with
         | a specific concern, that's at least some info.
        
         | 5cents wrote:
         | The rates at population levels are not enough. These are rare
         | cases and, at least partially, in groups of people who
         | shouldn't get that ill and suddenly die
        
           | maxerickson wrote:
           | _Last week, Lothar Wieler, head of Germany's Robert Koch
           | Institute for Infectious Diseases, said there was no evidence
           | that patients who received the vaccine were more likely than
           | patients of a similar age group to suffer blood conditions._
           | 
           | Is that guy wrong or basing the statement on outdated
           | information?
        
             | Sol- wrote:
             | Might be outdated, since he talks about clotting generally
             | but the agency in charge of halting the vaccinations
             | mentions a specific rare complication today [1]:
             | 
             | > accumulation of a special form of very rare cerebral vein
             | thrombosis (sinus vein thrombosis) in connection with a
             | deficiency of blood platelets (thrombocytopenia) and
             | bleeding in temporal proximity to vaccinations with the
             | COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca.
             | 
             | Perhaps really just a bad batch somehow if this particular
             | complication wasn't observed in the UK.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.pei.de/EN/newsroom/hp-news/2021/210315-pei-
             | infor...
        
             | fabian2k wrote:
             | There is new data, and the statement from the Paul Ehrlich
             | Institute refers specifically to a specific type of
             | thrombosis. The PEI is the institute responsible for
             | vaccines, the RKI is for infectious diseases in general.
             | 
             | It's hard to say if this is a good decision, my impression
             | is that this is too risk-averse given the real danger and
             | very significant chance of COVID 19 infections. But it does
             | seem to be based on different data than just a few days
             | ago.
             | 
             | PEI Statement:
             | 
             | https://www.pei.de/EN/newsroom/hp-news/2021/210315-pei-
             | infor...
        
       | rossdavidh wrote:
       | So, does anyone know why Astra/Zeneca is not approved in the
       | U.S.? Did they not try, or it's still ongoing, or did they have
       | problems?
        
         | zain wrote:
         | They haven't submitted to the FDA for emergency use
         | authorization yet because their trials aren't done yet. Their
         | trials started well after Pfizer/Moderna and are longer than
         | J&J. They're expected to apply in the next 3-4wks.
        
         | pkaye wrote:
         | The trial were delayed. I read just today that the results are
         | being reviewed to see if sufficient for submittal to the FDA.
        
         | sampo wrote:
         | My understanding is, FDA requires data from trials run on US
         | population. Trials from other countries are not sufficient
         | alone. AstraZeneca is currently running a trial in the US.
        
       | sampo wrote:
       | I have seen 2 similar cases of immune thrombocytopenia in the
       | news in US, one related to the Moderna vaccine, and one related
       | to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine:
       | 
       | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/health/immune-thrombocyto...
       | (alternative link: https://archive.is/RisZF)
       | 
       | https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/doctors-death-afte...
        
       | the-dude wrote:
       | The EU commission has framed AZ as _not trustworthy_ from the
       | moment the first delivery targets could not be met.
       | 
       | This has influenced public opinion in NL quite a bit ( in DE too
       | I suspect ). I can read in the local comment sections that people
       | want to decline the AZ vaccine as they _don 't trust it_, and _it
       | is only 60% effective_. They would rather have Pfizer, even
       | Sputnik or rather no vacination at all than AZ. These commenters
       | seem quite hostile to AZ and the UK for that matter.
       | 
       | And these comments are from before the clotting allegations.
       | 
       | This is and has been quite a contra-productive negotiation
       | strategy from the EU commission, directly endangering public
       | health in my humbe opinion.
        
         | detaro wrote:
         | > _The EU commission has framed AZ as not trustworthy from the
         | moment the first delivery targets could not be met._
         | 
         | source? Yes, there is some negative opinion about this, but at
         | least in Germany it's much more based on media citing
         | "government sources" and general FUD tactics than anything the
         | commission has said.
        
         | libertine wrote:
         | It's funny because on the other way around it seems like the
         | British Government did precisely the opposite by selling this
         | vaccine as a prime example of British superiority and why
         | "Brexit makes sense".
         | 
         | You're criticizing EU commission for transparently expose the
         | shortcomings of this private company, but you seem to forget
         | what this wave of what apparently are thousands of "internet
         | specialists" that know better then independent regulator bodies
         | for medicines.
         | 
         | Yes, this isn't EMA (that British propaganda painted as a slow
         | and incompetent agency) - it's each country own regulator that
         | have been responsible for the safety of millions of citizens,
         | and they have been doing a pretty good job for many, many
         | years.
         | 
         | This isn't a joint operation. It's scientists expressing their
         | concern about these cases which are anything but normal.
         | 
         | Or now, every single EU country regulator (including Norway)
         | are all incompetent, including the doctors who reported these
         | cases and are following closely their development? They're all
         | in this conspiracy to put down AZ?
         | 
         | I mean people rightfully criticize anti-vaxxers, but trust me,
         | this bullshit attitude is just the same as the anti-vaxxers.
         | It's blind fanaticism towards a vaccine, that even science
         | should be disregarded, exactly the extreme opposite of anti-
         | vaxxes.
        
         | zajio1am wrote:
         | > The EU commission has framed AZ as not trustworthy from the
         | moment the first delivery targets could not be met.
         | 
         | AZ was considered less trustworthy than Pfizer or Moderna
         | vaccines several months before that due to irregularities in
         | phase 3 clinical trials (original dosage leads to ~62%
         | efficacy, while inadvertently given half-dose to a part of test
         | subject leads to higher efficacy):
         | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
         | 
         | Conflicts between AZ and EU commission seems silly compared to
         | that and IMHO lead more to discreditation of Ursula von der
         | Leyen.
        
       | jokethrowaway wrote:
       | The deaths don't seem very high, I wonder if this is meant to be
       | exactly the opposite of what they say: purely a political move to
       | justify their slow vaccine rollout compared to the quick UK one
       | (which used AZ).
        
       | BaseS4 wrote:
       | Germany is clearly a conspiracy theorist. Vaccine injuries and
       | faulty manufacturing ins Alex Jones-tier cringe. What's next,
       | Germany offers diplomatic immunity for Qanon?
       | 
       | Vaccines have never harmed anyone. I can't believe this is on HN.
        
       | tablespoon wrote:
       | It's also worth noting that it seems like Germans perceive the
       | AstraZenica vaccine as second-rate, and were even skipping
       | appointments in the hope of getting the Pfizer/BioNTech shot
       | later.
       | 
       | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/25/world/europe/germany-coro...:
       | 
       | > Many people -- including health workers -- are skipping
       | appointments or refusing to sign up for the AstraZeneca shot,
       | which they fear is less effective than the Pfizer-BioNTech
       | vaccine, the officials say. As a result, two weeks after the
       | first delivery of 1.45 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine
       | arrived in Germany, only 270,986 have been administered,
       | according to data collected by the public health authority, the
       | Robert Koch Institute.
        
         | f430 wrote:
         | I think the concerns are very valid about AZ and German's have
         | a right to choose. Big point is that HN is largely an American
         | forum so there will be a bias against AZ doubters.
         | 
         | Interesting that Twitter and Facebook also not labeling the
         | concerns about AZ as "Fake News" so likely there is some merit
         | to the claims against AZ.
         | 
         | I am also against taking AZ as well. If HN folks are confident
         | it is fine go ahead. I will choose what I'm comfortable with
         | and Germans or anybody else for that matter should have a say.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Why would there be an American bias against AZ doubters? It's
           | not approved in the US and I expect a lot of otherwise pro-
           | vax people would not want an AZ vaccine--which, in at least
           | some states, is not actually a choice you have once a vaccine
           | is approved.
        
       | lkjlwekfjklwejf wrote:
       | Fauci is a fucking piece of shit fascist. He needs to nine-ironed
       | in the head.
        
       | ssully wrote:
       | Just announced that France is also suspending use of the vaccine
       | [1]
       | 
       | [1]: https://apnews.com/article/germany-suspends-astrazeneca-
       | vacc...
        
         | lgeorget wrote:
         | Until tomorrow afternoon, when the european agency in charge of
         | approving drugs should give its guidance on the matter. [1]
         | 
         | [1]:
         | https://www.francetvinfo.fr/live/message/604/f7f/da5/ff4/e9f...
         | (in French)
        
       | lkjlwekfjklwejf wrote:
       | https://patriots.win/p/12hkvmnScu/fauci-more-pandemics-in-th...
       | Now this fucking piece of shit asshole says "more pandemics in
       | the future because of climate change"
       | 
       | GET THE FUCK OUT OF MY COUNTRY YOU COMMIE FUCK!
        
       | petre wrote:
       | They should at least donate the vaccines to Ukraine and Moldova
       | and other poorer countries through the Covax mechanism instead of
       | letting them go to waste.
       | 
       | I'm due to get vaccinated with AZ in less that two weeks and I
       | will deninitely do it regardless, if doesn't get halted of
       | course. Most EU countries decided to use it on recipients older
       | than 55 and now they're halting it due to a baseless claim. It
       | has worked fine and the UK has already vaccinated millions of
       | people with it.
       | 
       | https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2...
        
       | johnnycerberus wrote:
       | Judging by what the German press is writing nowadays about their
       | politicans, especially the populists (and the unionists also)
       | that are increasingly frustrated on the incapability of Germany
       | (and the EU altogether) to handle the COVID situation and deliver
       | a homemade vaccine, without the help of the USA and UK, it
       | doesn't surprise me. It could be politically.
        
         | fab1an wrote:
         | Germany has a "homemade" vaccine (BioNTech), in fact it was the
         | first reliable vaccine on the market, and pioneering an
         | entirely new medical paradigm at it, but the EC botched the
         | process of acquiring it.
        
           | johnnycerberus wrote:
           | Yes, I know that the brains behind the vaccine are the people
           | from BioNTech, but without the engineering, manufacturing and
           | delivery guaranteed by Pfizer, we would have been in a bad
           | spot here in the EU. Research is great, but implementation is
           | what kills us... and bureaucracy.
        
           | chrisseaton wrote:
           | How can you botch acquiring something being developed and
           | made in own country?
        
             | jansan wrote:
             | That is what we have been asking us for more than two
             | months. This almost looks like sabotage.
        
             | semigroupoid wrote:
             | Because it is _not_ made in Germany. Pfizer is responsible
             | for producing it and their plants are primarily in the US.
        
               | fab1an wrote:
               | I don't think that's the case, the US isn't exporting any
               | vaccines afaik and the EU doses are primarily produced in
               | Europe.
        
               | tpush wrote:
               | The manufacturing of the vaccine is a three-stage
               | process[0]:
               | 
               | The First stage is done in the US.
               | 
               | The second stage is done in the US and Germany.
               | 
               | The third stage is done in the US and Belgium.
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer-
               | BioNTech_COVID-19_vacci...
        
               | rsynnott wrote:
               | The Pfizer-Biontec being used in Europe is, generally,
               | produced by Pfizer (and Biontec) plants in Europe.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | _ph_ wrote:
             | Mainly, by signing the orders to late and to to few doses.
             | Which held back extension of the production capacities. In
             | the meantime, a new production site in Germany went
             | operational (Marburg) and increased the output of BioNTech.
             | In Q3 there is probably enough production to supply
             | Germany, but that means at least one more quarter where
             | people and businesses die.
        
       | dustinmoris wrote:
       | 1. Hype up a virus to create a pandemic of fear
       | 
       | 2. Hype up fear against the vaccine which would get you out of
       | the pandemic of fear
       | 
       | 3. Impose the most outrageous and ridiculous restrictions on
       | people's lives which make it even illegal to see your own family.
       | 
       | 4. Control by fear
       | 
       | Anyone who still follows restrictions is not worthy of life.
        
       | globular-toast wrote:
       | These vaccinations are the largest unethical experiment since the
       | fear of fat.
        
       | jedberg wrote:
       | Three weeks ago I was debating someone here on HN, defending the
       | FDAs choice to deny approval of the AZ vaccine. I pointed out
       | that while the FDA can be conservative compared to the EU, they
       | have a strong track record of being right.
       | 
       | Thalidomide is the most well known example, but there are many
       | others:
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumiracoxib -- Approved in Europe,
       | not the USA. Withdrawn from sales due to side effects.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimelidine -- Same.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tolrestat -- Approved in Europe,
       | failed stage 3 clinical in the USA
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rimonabant -- Approved in Europe,
       | failed in the USA, withdrawn _worldwide_ because the side effects
       | were so bad.
        
       | de6u99er wrote:
       | My better half was olanned to get vaccinated with it tomorrow.
       | Because of people dying from blood clots after getting
       | vaccinated, we decided it might be a good idea to take Aspirine
       | as blood thinner. But today I read that oeople had issues with
       | bleeding and cloting.
        
         | geek_at wrote:
         | actually the numbers state that AstraZeneca reduces blood
         | clots.
         | 
         | AstraZeneca: 13 Pulmonary embolisms Pfizer-BioNTech: 15
         | Pulmonary embolisms
        
       | jansan wrote:
       | How many countries have stopped AZ fo far?
       | 
       | - Denmark
       | 
       | - Norway
       | 
       | - Ireland
       | 
       | - Netherlands
       | 
       | - Iceland
       | 
       | - Bulgaria
       | 
       | - Romania (only partly, see child comment)
       | 
       | Am I missing any?
        
         | johnnycerberus wrote:
         | Romania did not stop the vaccination. It is ongoing. Only the
         | faulty ones (as believed from the intel/reports we got from
         | Italy and Netherlands) were eliminated from the pool.
        
         | f430 wrote:
         | South Korea is also facing huge public pressure to ban AZ
        
         | throwaway210222 wrote:
         | DRC
        
           | throwaway210222 wrote:
           | DRC downvoted?
           | 
           | Here you go then: https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/drc-
           | postpones-covid-19-vac...
           | 
           | Sigh
        
         | yread wrote:
         | Thailand
        
         | clawoo wrote:
         | > - Romania
         | 
         | Romania hasn't, only for specific lot numbers that were
         | reported by Italy and Denmark as problematic.
        
         | alberto_ol wrote:
         | Italy
        
         | jedisct1 wrote:
         | France (announced today).
        
         | jansan wrote:
         | South Africa stopped using it in February, because it did not
         | work well against their mutant. Not sure about current status.
        
         | scruple wrote:
         | France.
        
       | agd wrote:
       | Let's see if any new data comes out, but from what's public right
       | now I can only see this pause costing many lives across Europe.
       | 
       | We've had millions of doses in the UK without serious side
       | effects, so unless there were faulty batches I think any risk
       | must be minuscule, and certainly lower than the known risks of
       | covid deaths for unvaccinated people.
       | 
       | This is a case where a cautious 'first do no harm' approach will
       | likely cost many lives.
        
         | libertine wrote:
         | These cases are 4x greater then the ones in the UK, so either
         | UK isn't reporting some cases, or something isn't right with AZ
         | production.
         | 
         | Also, I'm pretty sure each regulator knows the pros and cons of
         | this decision, and they know well the consequences of stopping
         | the vaccination - it's not like they are all incompetent. I
         | mean, imagine the odds of the amount of ignorance to have
         | reached this level of decision making in several independent
         | countries.
         | 
         | Not likely, at all.
         | 
         | It's not a "a case where a cautious 'first do no harm' approach
         | will likely cost many lives.", it's them doing their job and
         | follow the procedure that has worked pretty well, based in
         | science. It's what builds trust in vaccines and medicines,
         | knowing that regulators are there, aware, and if they think
         | something is wrong they won't take a stupid risk out of pride
         | or pressure.
        
       | calhoun137 wrote:
       | Since these vaccines got emergency use authorization, that means
       | they did not follow the standard procedure for clinical trials.
       | 
       | Therefore, precautionary measures which respond dynamically to
       | trends detected in newly available data, is the logical, ethical,
       | and scientifically correct thing to do, imo.
        
         | makomk wrote:
         | As I understand it, one of the reasons vaccinations were so
         | delayed in the EU compared to the UK is that they went through
         | the normal approval process rather than emergency use
         | authorization.
        
         | totalZero wrote:
         | The foundational weakness in what you're saying is that
         | politicians tend to make decisions based on sentiment, rather
         | than basing their actions on data.
         | 
         | I'm not saying the conclusion is incorrect, but it's driven by
         | fear, uncertainty, and doubt -- not quite the same as a clear
         | evidentiary basis.
         | 
         | That could be acceptable if the logic goes that AZN bears the
         | burden of proving that every potential adverse side effect is
         | extremely rare. However, by that logic the vaccinations will be
         | paused several times and more people will suffer due to COVID.
        
         | willis936 wrote:
         | What newly available data?
        
       | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
       | Most interesting would be data from the UK. My understanding is
       | they've had by far the biggest AZ rollout, so any anomalies
       | should be more obvious - assuming it's a design problem, and not
       | caused by a manufacturing defect from one specific supply.
        
       | pixiemaster wrote:
       | with ~300 deaths per day in germany, how many people will this
       | kill?
        
         | greenpresident wrote:
         | Casual estimates are at 1700/week.
         | 
         | https://mobile.twitter.com/politicsforali/status/13714790084...
        
           | niklasbuschmann wrote:
           | This number is highly dependent on the case numbers of a
           | country, so I wouldn't be too sure about it.
           | 
           | My very rough calculation: There are ~ 200,000 vaccines
           | administered daily in Germany, of which maybe 50% are
           | AstraZeneca, so lets say we are delaying 100,000 vaccines /
           | day - corresponding to 0.1% of the population vaccinated with
           | Astra-Zeneca per day. Currently there are ~ 200 daily
           | COVID-19 deaths in Germany, so in proportion one would expect
           | ~ 0.2 additional deaths per day (~2 per week) due to the
           | delay.
           | 
           | Assuming people prioritised to get AstraZeneca are 10x as
           | likely to die from COVID than the general population, this
           | still leaves us with 20 deaths / week due to the delay.
           | 
           | The big question is now how many people will die because they
           | are infected by someone who could have gotten vaccinated
           | sooner, but with a R of ~1, and less than 20 weeks until the
           | whole population is vaccined, I doubt this will give two more
           | orders of magnitude.
        
           | yayr wrote:
           | this does not seem to be official
           | 
           | the usual figure now is 5 Million vaccinations and 30
           | reported deaths from blood clotting. Which appears to be not
           | much different from the number without vaccinations.
           | 
           | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/oxford-astrazeneca-
           | vaccin...
        
             | greenpresident wrote:
             | The estimate I name is the number of additional people
             | dying per week if we stop using AZ vaccines today.
        
             | tlogan wrote:
             | My understanding is that they were 30 blood clotting cases
             | - not deaths. Am I correct?
        
           | mns wrote:
           | So you are saying that no one would die in Germany if the
           | vaccine would not be temporarily suspended? That's a bit
           | simplistic. Not to mention that we go so far as to consider
           | that every life is precious and we need to fight for every
           | single COVID patient, but the people that could be affected
           | by this are just statistically insignificant.
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | From the numbers I saw, the problems with AZ seem to affect
             | only a very small portion of people.
             | 
             | It kind of feels like people are only now reading the note
             | that comes with a drug. And we are using these drugs on
             | millions of people, so yeah even the one in a million
             | complications will start to show.
             | 
             | It sure seems that AZ is singled out on that so. And I
             | really wonder why. Because it sure is getting into
             | dangerous territory by now that we are artificialy limiting
             | our vaccine availability.
        
             | FpUser wrote:
             | >"we go so far as to consider that every life is precious"
             | 
             | We who? If you're talking about healthcare the chances of
             | survival are constantly moderated by various policies (
             | both government and private ) against the money spent.
        
         | exyi wrote:
         | Maybe many immediately. However, getting bad press for vaccines
         | and the government not doing enough to prevent "unnecessary"
         | death could decrease the voluntary vaccination rate
         | significantly. That would bring much more problems in the long
         | term. Of course, you can only guess what would happen, they
         | want to play the safe game, medicine in general is not a friend
         | with risk.
        
         | isolli wrote:
         | Vaccine-related deaths are highly visible, daily covid deaths
         | not so much...
        
           | WesolyKubeczek wrote:
           | They have been very visible a year ago (jeez, it's been a
           | year already, what a time to live in), but people got
           | mightily desensitized to this. 300 more deaths? Meh. In the
           | other news, the sun continues to rise every morning.
           | 
           | Until of course it's yourself, a family member, or a friend
           | that joins the rank of those 300.
        
             | isolli wrote:
             | To be fair, people in Germany were quite worried when covid
             | deaths were around 1000 per day. 300 deaths per day is on
             | par with a bad flu season. The important question, of
             | course, is: are deaths on the way up or down?
        
           | dcolkitt wrote:
           | This is just after like post 9/11, when a large percentage of
           | travelers decided to drive instead of fly out of fear of
           | plane hijackings. Even though you're orders of magnitude more
           | likely to die in a car accident than an act of terrorism.
        
       | 5cents wrote:
       | In Norway, two health care workers are receiving intensive care
       | for isolated low platelets and blood clotting. A third was also
       | admitted but died from a cerebral catastrophe. These are all
       | young (<50 years) and previously healthy. Of course this is
       | serious and needs proper investigation.
       | 
       | Maybe the risk for some specific groups justify giving them
       | another vaccine?
        
       | fab1an wrote:
       | Looks like this may be a bit more relevant than many of the
       | snarky comments would suggest - the relevant German authority on
       | this said that they have seen a unexpected increase in a specific
       | type of blood clotting issue that usually is very rare:
       | https://www.pei.de/DE/newsroom/hp-meldungen/2021/210315-voru...
        
         | est31 wrote:
         | Is that the real reason? In times of crisis one must be wary of
         | propaganda. AstraZeneca has recently announced they'd deliver
         | even less to the EU because of Italy's interception of the
         | delivery headed to Australia [0]... Europe having to halt the
         | vaccinations with AstraZeneca due to none being in stock makes
         | europe lose far more face than halting them because of quality
         | concerns...
         | 
         | [0]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-warns-europe-of-
         | lar...
        
           | johannes1234321 wrote:
           | The Paul Ehrlich Institut is an independent scientific
           | institute, who make suggestions based on science.
           | 
           | Of course they are influenced by what they see in the news
           | and questions by the government, but aren't a political
           | player.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ehrlich_Institute
        
             | luckylion wrote:
             | > The Paul Ehrlich Institute (German: Paul-Ehrlich-Institut
             | - Bundesinstitut fur Impfstoffe und biomedizinische
             | Arzneimittel, PEI) is a German research institution and
             | medical regulatory body, and is the German federal
             | institute for vaccines and biomedicines. It is a federal
             | agency and subordinate to the Federal Ministry of Health.
             | 
             | They are hopefully scientific, but they are definitely not
             | independent, not even by name.
        
               | johannes1234321 wrote:
               | It is, according to the law (Gesetz uber das
               | Bundesinstitut fur Impfstoffe und biomedizinische
               | Arzneimittel) a "selbststandige Bundesbehorde" and true,
               | it is not independent as a judge and not independent as
               | public broadcasters, but its not a mere department of the
               | ministry directly tied to the political will of the
               | minister, but bound to its task by law.
        
           | patrickmcnamara wrote:
           | Where does it say that AstraZeneca are delivering less
           | because of Italy's interception of vaccines?
        
             | est31 wrote:
             | > AstraZeneca on Friday said unspecified export
             | restrictions now rendered plans to bring in large amounts
             | of doses made outside Europe unlikely. It said it now
             | expects to provide 100 million doses to the EU in the first
             | half of this year, down from earlier commitments of around
             | 270 million.
        
               | patrickmcnamara wrote:
               | > bring in large amounts of doses made outside Europe
               | unlikely
               | 
               | I assume this is referring to the US export ban. It
               | definitely isn't referring to Italy.
        
               | jimmydorry wrote:
               | Australia also likely won't be looking to export theirs
               | now, until their whole country is immunized. They are
               | targetting to produce 100 million doses by the end of the
               | year.
               | 
               | All of this over the 3.8 million doses they bought, and
               | were intercepted and taken by Italy (whose export control
               | already reduced the shipment size to 780k doses).
        
             | idiliv wrote:
             | It doesn't.
             | 
             | > AstraZeneca on Friday said unspecified export
             | restrictions now rendered plans to bring in large amounts
             | of doses made outside Europe unlikely.
             | 
             | This suggests that countries _outside_ the EU have imposed
             | export restrictions that contribute to the vaccine
             | shortage.
        
               | pkaye wrote:
               | There is also a Dutch manufacturing plant which is not
               | being utilized for production because AZ didn't get
               | approvals yet.
        
         | sradman wrote:
         | > The EMA has said that as of March 10, a total of 30 cases of
         | blood clotting had been reported among close to 5 million
         | people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca shot in the European
         | Economic Area, which links 30 European countries.
         | 
         | "The decision today is purely precautionary..." given this
         | level of signal. We don't have details on the age groups
         | involved and the normal rates expected but I can hazard a Fermi
         | Estimate that the risk is minuscule compared to COVID-19
         | itself. I look forward to seeing the actual data in coming
         | days/weeks. Precaution without downside is acceptable; this is
         | not one of those cases, IMO. YMMV.
        
           | detaro wrote:
           | And the press statement says that this is based on new data
           | compared to when they looked at it on the 11th. Hope we'll
           | see what that is.
        
           | andrewon wrote:
           | Several considerations here:
           | 
           | 1. If holding off AstraZeneca vaccine does not affect
           | vaccination rate during the investigation period, it is a
           | prudent thing to do.
           | 
           | 2. If vaccine rate is expected to drop, number of expected
           | increase in death per day due to covid vs blood clog should
           | be compared, if we were to minimize short term death.
           | 
           | 3. More concerning is unknown effect that could take a long
           | time to materialize. This is a tough call to make since any
           | effect is only theoretical at this point.
        
           | ArkanExplorer wrote:
           | Surely more people will die from COVID than from blood
           | clotting, due to this delay?
           | 
           | Or perhaps not, given that 2020 deaths in Germany were
           | 985,145, only 4.85% higher than 2019, and only 3.2% higher
           | than 2018 (and so basically in line with what we would expect
           | from an aging society).
           | 
           | https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-
           | Umwelt/Bevoel...
        
             | libertine wrote:
             | You're missing the point. This is an anomaly.
             | 
             | It's not about the "oh it's worth the risk compared to
             | COVID 19". If it's a side effect it wasn't spotted in the
             | trials, why was that?
             | 
             | It's not a side effect? It was a problem in production?
             | What problem? Was is tampered with or was an accident? What
             | failed in QA to let that batch come to the public? Was is a
             | storage problem that compromised the batch quality? Was it
             | while in transport or in the local hospital?
             | 
             | You talk about this like background noise. It's not. It
             | should be investigated.
             | 
             | It's good that this is happening, because it shows
             | regulators are doing their job. This is what builds trust
             | in vaccines, not disregarding odd occurrences because they
             | seem to have no "statistical relevance". That's just
             | ignorance talking.
        
               | Broken_Hippo wrote:
               | And those last couple of sentences are really, really
               | important: If forging ahead despite the blood clotting
               | causes folks to lose trust in vaccines, it could be worse
               | than Covid has. And realistically, we don't need more
               | folks to be anti-vaccine.
        
               | libertine wrote:
               | Exactly. This subject can easily backfire and blow the
               | trust of a population on vaccines, or worst, on the
               | regulators.
               | 
               | Imagine this is the outcome of a production problem, yet
               | regulators refused to acknowledge this until it was out
               | of proportions because the problem wasn't fixed. Not only
               | people would lose trust on vaccines, they would lose
               | trust on the regulator - this extends far beyond this
               | vaccine, but all vaccines and medicines.
               | 
               | People need to feel safe, and to know that regulators are
               | not sleeping on their job. It's not a bureaucratic job,
               | but that they are actively looking at data and reports
               | from doctors.
        
               | freewilly1040 wrote:
               | No one is saying side effects should not be investigated.
               | The question is whether the vaccine administration should
               | be halted in the meantime, and that would be determined
               | by the risk/reward of preventing covid deaths.
        
               | libertine wrote:
               | Just like I trust the regulators for vaccine approval, I
               | trust them in the decision of stopping the administration
               | of a vaccine to further investigate the problem. This
               | goes together.
               | 
               | It's not a political decision no matter how many people
               | try to spin this. This is the outcome of doctors
               | reporting an anomaly to a regulator. The system is
               | working, and this should give you reassurance, not doubt
               | about the consequences of stopping a vaccine.
               | 
               | I'm pretty sure they know the consequences of this
               | setback, so for them to stop it it's because something is
               | not right.
        
               | hntrader wrote:
               | "It's not a political decision"
               | 
               | It likely is, though.
               | 
               | From the perspective of the regulators, there are
               | asymmetric _personal_ consequences.
               | 
               | If they make a decision that leads to 50 clotting deaths
               | but saves 5000 people from COVID as a counterfactual,
               | their head is on a chopping block because those 5000
               | foregone deaths are invisible but the 50 deaths are
               | visible.
               | 
               | If they make a decision to halt the vaccine distribution
               | and this kills an extra 5000 people - well that's no
               | problem because they were just being careful.
               | 
               | Society has set up a political situation where there is
               | literally only one choice that absolves the bureaucrats
               | from a negative personal outcome. Of course they're going
               | to go that route.
               | 
               | Personal incentives are incredibly powerful drivers of
               | behavior, whatever the publicly stated reasons for an
               | action may happen to be.
               | 
               | It _may be_ the case that they 've made the right
               | decision, but we can't assume that it was for the right
               | reasons.
        
             | lm28469 wrote:
             | > Or perhaps not, given that 2020 deaths in Germany were
             | 985,145, only 4.85% higher than 2019, and only 3.2% higher
             | than 2018 (and so basically in line with what we would
             | expect from an aging society).
             | 
             | Are we still having this debate.... Of course the overall
             | mortality didn't change much, people stayed at home for
             | literally 75% of the year.
             | 
             | Do you have the split stats for accidental deaths, road
             | deaths, disease related deaths, &c. ? Because otherwise
             | it's meaningless. We can put everyone in an artificial coma
             | and get as little death per year as possible, it isn't a
             | really interesting metric without the context.
        
               | ArkanExplorer wrote:
               | https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-
               | of-...
               | 
               | Sweden, 2020 deaths only 6.2% higher than 2018, and
               | following a weak 2019 flu season.
               | 
               | These are entirely acceptable death figures within the
               | context of aging European societies.
               | 
               | COVID is basically a once-a-decade flu variant: like
               | Swine Flu in 2009, which came and went without lockdown:
               | https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-
               | monthly-...
               | 
               | So COVID is dangerous enough to lock down entire
               | societies, but not dangerous enough to justify continued
               | vaccination when 1 in 166,666 have blood clotting? This
               | is probably the background rate.
               | 
               | It seems like Europe and its bureaucrats just can't let
               | go of lockdown. Or alternatively, they wish to push the
               | vaccines and end of lockdown into Spring/Summer, where
               | natural seasonality will take care of COVID and give the
               | appearance that lockdown and vaccines were a success.
        
               | mynameisvlad wrote:
               | > Or alternatively, they wish to push the vaccines and
               | end of lockdown into Spring/Summer, where natural
               | seasonality will take care of COVID and give the
               | appearance that lockdown and vaccines were a success.
               | 
               | Did you somehow forget that this is the second year of
               | Covid? We've already gone through the whole "natural
               | seasonality" cycle and the disease is very much still
               | here.
        
               | leereeves wrote:
               | Take a look at this COVID daily trends graph from the
               | CDC:
               | 
               | https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-
               | tracker/#trends_dailytrends...
               | 
               | From an average of about 50k cases reported daily in
               | April through October to about 200k cases reported daily
               | in November, December, and January, then back down to 60k
               | by March.
               | 
               | And there's a similar winter increase in the worldwide
               | cases (some of which is from the US cases, but not all):
               | 
               | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-
               | graphs/#...
               | 
               | It's impossible to be sure after just one year, but that
               | hill in the winter certainly suggests a seasonal illness
               | to me.
        
               | Tarsul wrote:
               | yes, a certain seasonality is very probable. But with the
               | variants we have right now (e.g. B1.1.7 from Kent),
               | summer won't be enough to stem the tide. I'm saying this
               | from a central european perspective (with not enough
               | vaccinations either to help).
        
               | addicted wrote:
               | Winter also corresponds with holiday seasons.
               | 
               | Further, South American countries were some of the worst
               | hit during the Nov - Feb timeline. South Africa was badly
               | hit around this time. And all these are Southern
               | Hemisphere countries that were experiencing summer around
               | then.
               | 
               | Now, there's clear evidence that warmer weather makes
               | things easier, since the virus has lower survivability
               | outside a host in the heat, so all things equal, the
               | spread would be lower in warmer weather, but it's not so
               | much lower that it can be considered seasonal, like the
               | flu.
        
               | eecc wrote:
               | If you're on meds, don't skip doses. If not, please go
               | find a specialist and get some help.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | tazjin wrote:
           | > the risk is minuscule compared to COVID-19 itself
           | 
           | You don't know this at all - we don't know what age groups
           | are affected here, and COVID is pretty much negligible in
           | many younger age groups. It's best to wait for more data to
           | come in before drawing any conclusions.
        
             | draw_down wrote:
             | There is such a discursive wall around the vaccines, there
             | is no quarter for any idea that one of the vaccines could
             | have risks that should give anyone pause. Covid will kill
             | you, vaccines will save you, end of story.
        
             | mike_d wrote:
             | > COVID is pretty much negligible in many younger age
             | groups
             | 
             | "Paediatricians in Israel, which has surged ahead in
             | vaccinating its adult population, reported a sharp rise in
             | covid-19 infections among young people, with more than 50
             | 000 children and teens testing positive in January--more
             | than Israel saw in any month during the first and second
             | waves."
             | 
             | https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n383
        
               | tazjin wrote:
               | Susceptible to infection, absolutely, but are they
               | suffering severe symptoms or dying in large numbers? No.
               | 
               | A single metric (e.g. positive tests) is not enough to
               | assess any severity here, and even those metrics come
               | with caveats because all of our methods of determining
               | them are imprecise.
        
             | blagie wrote:
             | The risk *of death* from COVID is pretty negligible for
             | some age groups. The biggest confusion of this whole
             | situation is we've fixated on CFR numbers as a measure of
             | risk.
             | 
             | Risks of long-term consequences don't seem to be all that
             | low.
        
               | tazjin wrote:
               | I haven't seen anything that indicates that the risk of
               | long-term consequences is significantly elevated above
               | other viral diseases. There is a condition (which we know
               | too little about, and which - as one of the few good
               | outcomes of the COVID situation - is now actually getting
               | some attention) that can lead to fatigue and other
               | symptoms after fighting off a viral infection, but it's
               | not unique to COVID.
               | 
               | A year ago there was a lot of noise about things like
               | heart issues induced by COVID, which turned out to be
               | mostly statistical errors in the papers that made the
               | claims.
               | 
               | A lot of people (often people who never actually had a
               | positive test) also claim to suffer from various mental
               | impairments after their COVID infections, and some
               | newspaper ran an article saying that some of these
               | symptoms were alleviated after the people were given
               | anxiety medication. Go figure ...
        
           | h3cate wrote:
           | The risk of covid-19 in the majority of the population is
           | miniscule
        
         | draw_down wrote:
         | Seems reasonable that a covid vaccine (which were developed
         | much more rapidly than any vaccines before) could have
         | problems. But to say so is painted as "anti-vaxxer" talk,
         | conspiracy theory, you hate public health, you're killing
         | grandma, etc.
        
         | refraincomment wrote:
         | Okay, so they looked for correlations with a million conditions
         | and when they found a vaguely significant one they
         | automatically suspended the vaccination campaign prolonging by
         | days or weeks the national lockdown.
        
         | 2ion wrote:
         | It's not a medically reasonable response that solicits snarky
         | remarks, it's the complete retardation of the official covid
         | response so far, and even reasonable decisions just are landing
         | on a pile of steaming crap now.
         | 
         | - billions per week of half assed lockdown vs a few billion
         | more for high quality timeley vaccine delivieries of the good
         | stuff --- of course they chose the lockdown
         | 
         | - open schools as if nothing happens vs using UV-based air
         | filtering machines and so on as a minimum level of precaution
         | --- of course they choose to open schools with classrooms some
         | of which even don't have windows that can be opened properly
         | 
         | - governing party members of parliament scamming the public out
         | of money by selling overly expensive, low quality masks
         | 
         | - minister of health busy sueing newspapers for disclosing
         | prices on his million dollar real estate purchases vs minister
         | of health actually being busy 24/7 with fighting the crisis
         | 
         | the list goes "on and on and on", these are just the most
         | popular ones right now. It's just a dumpster fire at this point
         | and the positives will not be recognized divorced from said
         | pile of crap.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Is there any correlation with ABO blood type? Usually non-O
         | blood types are more prone to clotting disorders.
        
         | Rochus wrote:
         | From the article:
         | 
         |  _Compared to the status of 11.03.2021, additional cases (as of
         | Monday, 15.03.2021) have now been reported in Germany. In the
         | analysis of the new data status, the experts of the Paul
         | Ehrlich Institute now see a striking accumulation of a special
         | form of very rare cerebral vein thrombosis (sinus vein
         | thrombosis) in conjunction with a deficiency of blood platelets
         | (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding in temporal proximity to
         | vaccinations with the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca._
         | 
         | Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
        
         | raducu wrote:
         | I'm set to take the oxford d vaccine, but I could also take the
         | pfizer vaccine.
         | 
         | I've had elevated blood markers for clotting during covid-19,
         | and now I hear of this.
         | 
         | I'm thinking of taking 75 mg aspirin, before and after the
         | vaccine. On the other hand, the issue is the patients have low
         | platelet count and I understand that this is the way aspirin
         | reduces blod clotting.
         | 
         | So, do these patients have low platelet count because they had
         | blod clots, or the other way around?
         | 
         | Afik, in the case of COVID-19, clotting is an autoimune issue,
         | so perhaps the clotting is not something related to the astra
         | Zeneca vaccine, but something about the immune response itself.
        
           | libertine wrote:
           | You should talk to your doctor and not self prescribe
           | yourself.
        
           | qbasic_forever wrote:
           | Talk to your doctor before making decisions. Taking aspirin
           | right before a vaccine might not be a good idea as it can
           | blunt your immune system response, but the whole point of a
           | vaccine is to elicit a strong immune response that builds
           | memory. I know acetaminophen is specifically mentioned as
           | something not to take right before the COVID-19 vaccines (and
           | afterwards, if you can deal with the immune response
           | naturally).
        
             | HenryBemis wrote:
             | >can blunt your immune system response
             | 
             | (Not a doctor) From listening to the "Faucis" of various
             | countries (incuding the original): I believe that the
             | vaccine is not a watered down virus _, so technically you
             | are not making yourself vulnerable /more sensitive to the
             | virus. It is suppsed to 'teach' your body how to build the
             | defence.
             | 
             | _Only the Chinese virus is a 'watered down' version of the
             | virus. All the others (including the Russian) is an RNA-
             | type-thingie.
        
               | qbasic_forever wrote:
               | What in the world are you going on about? Drugs can make
               | your immune system's response less severe--this is
               | straight medical fact, look up diphenhydramine (benadryl)
               | or anti-histamines in general.
               | 
               | No where did I say any of these vaccines are 'live' or
               | even attenuated coronavirus. It is 100% impossible to get
               | infected with covid-19 from any of the vaccines. However
               | it is possible to take a drug which lowers your immune
               | system response and you fail to build a strong response
               | to the vaccine and the spike protein RNA or other bits in
               | the vaccine. Hence why I said _talk to your doctor before
               | doing anything like taking aspirin right before the
               | vaccine_.
               | 
               | This site is full of pure lunacy when it comes to any
               | COVID-19 or medical issues. The comments in this thread
               | and many others over the past weeks are just unbelievable
               | low quality. Folks, stay in your lanes with software and
               | startups...
        
               | addicted wrote:
               | Best comment yet.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | > Only the Chinese virus is a 'watered down' version of
               | the virus. All the others (including the Russian) is an
               | RNA-type-thingie.
               | 
               | This is not true. There are 11 current vaccines in use
               | around the world, of 4 different types. Even the vaccine
               | mentioned in this article is an adenovirus-vector
               | vaccine.
               | 
               | The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are the only
               | mRNA vaccines.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Vaccine_ty
               | pes
        
             | shortandsweet wrote:
             | I'm not a doctor but I can tell you what they will say and
             | save op $200 for a useless visit. Doctor will mention
             | there's no data and does not recommend it.
        
       | dash2 wrote:
       | This seems like a case where the precautionary principle is
       | misleading. Maybe there's a small chance that the vaccine can be
       | harmful for a few people. Meanwhile there's a large chance that
       | not having the vaccine can increase your chance of getting COVID.
       | Doesn't even a week's delay in vaccinating predictably increase
       | the number of deaths in a country, perhaps by a large amount
       | given the nonlinear dynamics of epidemics?
       | 
       | I'm assuming that these decisions aren't political and are
       | genuinely being taken for medical reasons. I mean, I sure hope
       | so.
        
         | throaway_484888 wrote:
         | > I'm assuming that these decisions aren't political and are
         | genuinely being taken for medical reasons. I mean, I sure hope
         | so.
         | 
         | It's the EU's punishment for the UK leaving. I don't think
         | anyone really thinks otherwise.
        
           | oezi wrote:
           | The EU is punishing itself?
           | 
           | - AstraZeneka is part swedish.
           | 
           | - The vaccine is approved and the contracts are signed. No
           | money back for adverse effects.
        
             | throaway_484888 wrote:
             | > The EU is punishing itself?
             | 
             | Yes they're cutting their nose off to spite their face! Or
             | to let their own citizens die - whatever it takes to have a
             | pop at the British!
             | 
             | The UK is having success using primarily AstraZeneca (not
             | 'AstraZeneka') and the EU don't like that, so they're
             | attacking it.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | The drop in export volume is probably punishment enough, this
           | would be a bizarre play
        
           | ketzu wrote:
           | > It's the EU's punishment for the UK leaving. I don't think
           | anyone really thinks otherwise.
           | 
           | Then call me the first one, I seriously doubt this is the
           | reason.
        
         | majewsky wrote:
         | > even a week's delay in vaccinating [may] predictably increase
         | the number of deaths in a country
         | 
         | The big impact is not a few days of delay. The big impact is
         | the loss of trust in this vaccine in the general populace.
         | 
         | > I'm assuming that these decisions aren't political and are
         | genuinely being taken for medical reasons. I mean, I sure hope
         | so.
         | 
         | Obvious disclaimer: I'm not a medical expert.
         | 
         | However, I wouldn't be so sure it's a wise decision. I
         | primarily trust Karl Lauterbach's [1] opinion on these matters,
         | and he is actively criticizing the move on Twitter as an
         | overreaction [2].
         | 
         | [1] Karl Lauterbach is the director of an institute for
         | epidemiology at a German university and also a member of the
         | German Federal parliament for the Social Democrats (who are
         | part of the current coalition).
         | 
         | [2] Source (in German):
         | https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/13714710614018949...
        
           | _Microft wrote:
           | Don't be deterred by the downvotes on the parent comment; the
           | quoted source is reputable.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Lauterbach
        
         | calhoun137 wrote:
         | > Doesn't even a week's delay in vaccinating predictably
         | increase the number of deaths in a country
         | 
         | One of the many unknowns about these vaccines is the length of
         | time they give immunity, this can only be determined with
         | confidence by looking at the data after a sufficient amount of
         | time has passed. If the immunity only lasts for say 10-20
         | weeks, then getting it one week early, would mean the immunity
         | goes away one week early as well. So in this case, I'm not sure
         | there would be a major measurable impact. If the immunity lasts
         | for say 50 weeks, that would be a different story.
        
         | yokaze wrote:
         | > I'm assuming that these decisions aren't political and are
         | genuinely being taken for medical reasons. I mean, I sure hope
         | so.
         | 
         | Not that I agree with the decision, but it's more complicated.
         | People have to trust the vaccines to actually take them. There
         | is already the fear that the process has been rushed, and
         | particularly with AstraZeneca, there are some trust issues.
         | Again, I don't want to argue that the concerns themselves are
         | founded, just that they exists.
         | 
         | If that is the right measure to address those concerns is not
         | purely medical or easily quantifiable. If you don't suspend it,
         | would people still take the vaccine? Would they take the
         | others?
         | 
         | Personally, since that is the case, I think one should stick
         | with the facts. Be transparent about it, and try not to preempt
         | whatever people may think. I would take it without a moment of
         | hesitation, if I would be offered the opportunity.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | motohagiography wrote:
       | There is an availability bias, where stories about people dying
       | after vaccinations are amplified in fringe media, and conversely,
       | the numbers of people who died in nursing homes of actual covid
       | were suppressed by mainstream authorities. There's uncertainty on
       | every part of the issue. Interpreting the general uncertainty we
       | live with as evidence for a hidden agenda on the part of
       | authorities is it's own self fulfilling bias, but when I read
       | about these vaccine risks, I'm looking for a plausible model of
       | the options.
       | 
       | I would (and did) jump out of planes with a parachute
       | recreationally, but if untrustworthy people started advocating
       | it, proposing it should be mandatory, and unstable people dressed
       | up in double flight suits in the streets started shaming others
       | into doing it, I would definitely not jump out of planes anymore.
       | 
       | If it were true that the probability of complications/death from
       | covid are heavily skewed to people over 75 and some obvious co-
       | morbidities, we could vaccinate everyone in that risk group in a
       | matter of weeks. What is the case for anyone who isn't a medical
       | worker outside the real at-risk cohort to take on the endogenous
       | risk of a vaccine? I could make one, but I'm more interested in
       | what more knowledgeable people have to say about it, and judging
       | by rising popular skepticism, we're going to need one.
       | 
       | When covid started last year, as someone young'ish and healthy I
       | signed up to volunteer for human challenge trials and started to
       | organize a convalescent plasma drive, because that's what I
       | thought being civic minded meant. I have living family members
       | who were affected by polio before widespread vaccinations were
       | available, and recognize the importance of vaccines on herd
       | immunity. After a year of hall of mirrors bullshit about masks
       | and politics, I'm struggling with the case for why a low-risk
       | healthy person would take a vaccine with non-trivial side effect
       | risks for a virus that is less dangerous than their normal
       | activities, when the vulnerable people who get vaccinated (for
       | whom the risk/reward is clearer) are no longer vulnerable.
       | 
       | Is there a conversation to be had on the model for this, or does
       | it come down to "conspiracy theorists who put us at risk," vs.
       | "normal people" and there's no point in engaging it? Is the best
       | argument just a matter of, "we live in a society and part of that
       | is accepting the jab?"
        
       | matthewmorgan wrote:
       | From the BBC's health correspondent: "The data supplied by
       | AstraZeneca shows there have been 37 reports of blood clots among
       | the 17m people across Europe who have been given the vaccine" ...
       | "The 37 reports are below the level you would expect. What is
       | more, there is no strong biological explanation why the vaccine
       | would cause a blood clot."
        
       | jonplackett wrote:
       | Maybe AZ should have charged EUR3 per shot instead of EUR2 and
       | spent the extra EUR on a PR agency. They just seem to be
       | constantly taking a hammering in the press, unfairly I'd say.
        
         | rocqua wrote:
         | The feeling I am getting is that AZ is being less cautious with
         | their promises. What I fear is that they did the same with
         | their fase 3 trials.
         | 
         | I read an unsourced claim on HN a few weeks ago that they did 9
         | phase-3 trials, and applied for approval on the basis of only
         | 2. Which would be rather bad if true. Moreover, it is clear
         | that their 1.5 dose regimen was a mistake in trial execution.
         | 
         | Meanwhile, the FDA still hasn't approved AZ.
         | 
         | It seems possible that AZ was overeager to present good
         | results, and thus was less cautious than they should have been.
         | It's only a possibility, but its one that worries me.
         | 
         | Anyone here have an source to confirm / debunk the rumor that
         | AZ did 9 trials, and only applied on the basis of 2 trials?
         | 
         | edit: I just looked at the stats in the UK, and it certainly
         | seems like since they started vaccinating cases have dropped
         | off, and deaths have dropped of even faster. Since vaccines are
         | probably targeted at the more vulnerable, it certainly seems to
         | show that the vaccine has very positive net effects.
        
         | libertine wrote:
         | I really don't understand the "unfairness" about how AZ is
         | being treated. This isn't an NGO that's doing their best with
         | limited resources, it's a private company that is getting
         | funded to expand their operations - this isn't charity, and I
         | doubt anyone asked for charity.
         | 
         | EU is buying vaccines with profit margins, and those are
         | delivering.
         | 
         | If that cost structure is proving to not be enough for AZ, then
         | they shouldn't have accepted it, because clearly what they are
         | doing now is borderline criminal, all while hiding behind a
         | "best effort" clause in a contract, that's being stretched far
         | beyond what is acceptable.
         | 
         | They messed up the trials, they set up production
         | infrastructure that would have never worked to begin with
         | (because of the UK contract not allowing exports of vaccines),
         | giving notice of failed deliveries on short notice, and still
         | make new promises of deliveries that are showing yet again not
         | to be true. They are yet to file approval for other production
         | facilities in EU that should have been working for MONTHS.
         | 
         | Now they dare to question independent regulators from different
         | countries by saying their vaccines are fine - when they didn't
         | seem to even have bothered to investigate any of the cases -
         | it's like they looked at a spreadsheet and said "this anomaly
         | is within these intervals", completely disregarding the type of
         | cases, their local incidence, time window and age group.
         | Ignoring the fact that these occurrences are 4x greater then
         | the ones in the UK.
         | 
         | I understand that the EU doesn't want to file a lawsuit because
         | it's counter productive, but at this point I think it's the
         | only path - pull the funding, place it on other candidates, sue
         | AZ. It's too much incompetence for such an endeavor, which
         | makes you question if they are not simply cutting corners.
         | Again, they seem to be pushing "best effort" to what is
         | acceptable.
        
         | Kaido wrote:
         | It was totally deserved, the EU helped fund the vaccine with a
         | EUR336 million grant and what they did was stopping the exports
         | from the UK plants to the EU while still exporting from the EU
         | to the UK.No wonder that they didn't delivered the promised
         | doses since their best efforts were being allocated to the UK.
        
           | jonplackett wrote:
           | I know they accused AZ of this but as far as I know there is
           | no evidence. Do you have a source?
        
         | patrickmcnamara wrote:
         | Not that unfairly. They keep reducing vaccine deliveries on
         | short notice in the EU and have been opaque in general. I think
         | they have delivered about 10% of what they agreed to for Q1.
        
           | yread wrote:
           | Indeed they promised 120M doses in Q1 and so far delivered
           | 12.3M, out of which about 70% has been administered. While
           | delivering basically exactly as promised to the UK and having
           | a stockpile of 30M doses waiting in a warehouse in the US
           | because they paid a higher per dose price.
        
             | sampo wrote:
             | > having a stockpile of 30M doses waiting in a warehouse in
             | the US
             | 
             | To be fair, AstraZeneca wanted to ship those to Canada and
             | Mexico, but Biden (and earlier Trump) has forbidden
             | exporting vaccines out of US.
        
             | gbil wrote:
             | I wouldn't use the word "promised" here. The contract ,
             | which is public, mentions "Best effort" deliveries only.
             | The promised word is used to by EU officials who made a
             | mess out of it and in articles for views.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | True that. There is also a clause the frees AZ from any
               | delivery delays caused by the request of additional doses
               | above the agreed deliveries if these orders had a
               | negative impact on availability. Or something a long
               | these lines. And the EU happened to order more, which is
               | the reason why AZ did rework on the factory, if memory
               | serves well.
               | 
               | There is definetly a couple of case studies for a lot of
               | discipline in that. Besides virology, epidemiology or
               | medcine.
        
           | throwawinsider wrote:
           | While only 30% of the doses are actually being used.
           | 
           | EU has only themselves and their innate incompetence to
           | blame.
        
         | DoingIsLearning wrote:
         | To be fair, I think the contract between AZ and Oxford
         | University actually restricts them from making a profit for a
         | period of N months/years.
         | 
         | So they are only technically allowed to adjust the price to
         | take into account the different operational costs depending on
         | the manufacturing site.
        
           | signal11 wrote:
           | I believe AZ have said they will not profit off the vaccine
           | until the pandemic ends. The interesting thing is that they
           | may get to decide when that happens.[1]
           | 
           | [1] https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/astrazeneca-puts-a-
           | time-...
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | From top of my head, not before June / July or when the WHO
             | declares the end of the pandemic.
        
           | jonplackett wrote:
           | Yes I did know that (I'm just being silly really) but even
           | so, PR is a cost and so they wouldn't even be making any more
           | profit!
           | 
           | I do think people aren't giving AZ enough credit for doing it
           | at cost though. Especially compared to the EUR50 per dose
           | Pfizer initially quoted the EU!
        
       | mywacaday wrote:
       | Poor reporting to not include that Italy, France, Ireland,
       | Bulgaria, Denmark and The Netherlands have all paused the vaccine
       | along with Norway which is mentioned. Expect better of Reuters.
        
         | elliekelly wrote:
         | The very first sentence of the article makes it clear that
         | Germany is neither the first nor only European country to
         | suspend AZ vaccinations:
         | 
         | > making it the latest of several European countries to hit
         | pause
         | 
         | The article also cites the EMA, an EU institution, and notes:
         | 
         | > Several EU countries have called a halt to the AstraZeneca
         | vaccine
         | 
         | Would you have them list each and every country individually?
         | It seems, to me, that you're just complaining for the sake of
         | complaining. Expect better of HN comments.
        
           | mywacaday wrote:
           | Yes, or at the very least the number of countries that have
           | paused the vaccine, this is a rapidly changing story and
           | where this reporting lands in the narrative is important. I
           | had to go check anothe news site to see which/how many EU
           | countries had now paused the Astra Zennica vaccine.
        
       | verytrivial wrote:
       | As far as I understand it, the EU member states are not generally
       | short on doses, more on distribution and other regulatory issues.
       | If they pause AZ, they can use something else which is already
       | being manufactured right now, and likely within the EU, quelle
       | surprise.
       | 
       | I would not be surprised if this is simply a political and
       | economic snub from the EU, one of very many the UK can expect
       | over the coming decades.
       | 
       | The UK has spent the last half decade ENDLESSLY trying to score
       | points against the EU on any and every topic. This sort of
       | wrangling is part and parcel for the relationship the UK has
       | chosen. Basically, if the current UK Government has gone anywhere
       | NEAR this topic, don't expect the truth to linger. This certainly
       | includes the chest-beating around the AZ vaccine, which the
       | government were actually going to require be shipped with a
       | fscking Union Flag on every vial.
       | 
       | Edit: My understanding was based around stories like this
       | suggesting some delays, that AZ were "striving" to deliver, and
       | more dosed being ordered after AZ testing not covering over 65s
       | (at the time), some hesitancy, and general mud slinging. When I
       | say "generally short" I guess I should say that I doubt even the
       | chest-beating Brits will be fully two-dose vaccinated to 80-90%
       | before Autumn. It's been a year and a month or two is second
       | order optimization in my view.
       | 
       | If you are concerned about shortages, there are some other
       | continents to consider first.
       | 
       | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/24/astrazeneca-ex...
       | 
       | https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2021/02/18/EU-add...
        
         | atleta wrote:
         | Depends on how you define short on doses. We have less than
         | what we've planned but we seem to adminster less than we have
         | at the moment.
        
         | s_dev wrote:
         | >As far as I understand it, the EU member states are not
         | generally short on doses
         | 
         | Let me correct that understanding. The EU is absolutely short
         | on doses. AZ has only delivered 10% of what they promised.
         | There is no doubt if the EU had a greater supply the vaccine
         | rollout would be going much better.
        
         | rsynnott wrote:
         | You understand it incorrectly. EU vaccination is largely
         | constrained by doses. The exception is AZ, which in some
         | countries has already seen people declining it, but AZ is
         | currently a tiny portion of the EU's available vaccines due to
         | AZ's failure to deliver. This will indeed delay things more if
         | it isn't sorted out quickly (but possibly not THAT much more,
         | because AZ is so behind on deliveries).
        
           | detaro wrote:
           | And "some people declining it" doesn't mean there isn't a
           | large backlog of people you can give it to.
        
         | detaro wrote:
         | The last German news before this was "available vaccine slots
         | need to be reduced due to missing deliveries". While the
         | distribution certainly had and has its issues, using the
         | limited available stock is less of a difficulty than handling
         | the fact that the available stock is limited.
        
       | chmod775 wrote:
       | Absolute fucking stupidity.
       | 
       | Thirty cases of blood clotting out of five million. More people
       | will die because they're not vaccinated.
       | 
       | And that's ignoring the fact that this may just be a statistical
       | blip. There's a lot of diseases humans could catch, and sometimes
       | there's going to be clusters.
       | 
       | German politicians said they're suspending vaccinations "out of
       | an abundance of caution".
       | 
       | Given these numbers, we should continue to vaccinate _out of an
       | abundance of caution_.
       | 
       | These people would refuse to board a rescue vessel because "it
       | seems kind of unstable" and prefer to keep treading water.
        
         | Mudface_72 wrote:
         | The headline is misleading, half of Europe put AZ on hold.
         | Because the complications hit young health workers. We prefer
         | to keep our health workers alive, maybe other countries have
         | other strategies, just go ahead, maybe we will follow.
         | 
         | On Monday Germany, Spain, Italy, and France were among those to
         | suspend deployment of the vaccine, following similar moves made
         | last week by Denmark, Norway, Ireland, and others.
        
         | yoaviram wrote:
         | An hypothesis: I'm not sure about Germany but in France, Spain
         | and several other European countries 40% of the population do
         | not want to get vaccinated. I believe the countries that have
         | suspended AZ have done so so that those who generally doubt the
         | safety of vaccination don't have a reason to further doubt this
         | one. Even if a small percentage of those 40% is convinced by
         | this act it's a large number of people.
        
           | _Wintermute wrote:
           | Or alternatively they've added extra doubts to the
           | vaccination effort which will result in more people deciding
           | not to get a vaccine.
           | 
           | In my opinion they're very much pandering to the large anti-
           | vax populations of these countries.
        
       | temp-dude-87844 wrote:
       | Given that some amount of alternate vaccines are available,
       | governments are doing the right thing by "deferring" deployment
       | of this vaccine for a short while, because this move has the
       | highest chance avoiding direct harm to people from medicine
       | (which is often perceived worse than harm that would have
       | befallen people without medicine) and highest chance of avoiding
       | an increase of brand-agnostic vaccine mistrust from the public.
       | 
       | As news about some countries pausing its deployment spread, the
       | pressure rises on other countries to follow suit, as they weigh
       | the risk of public mistrust.
       | 
       | If in the near future, public mistrust about this brand of
       | vaccine climbs higher but confidence in other vaccines does not
       | drop as much, then governments will benefit from having deferred
       | deployment of this vaccine, and they may benefit further by
       | suspending deployment of this vaccine entirely, even if the
       | vaccine is entirely vindicated to be safe.
       | 
       | This outcome would be unfair for the manufacturer, but it would
       | sacrifice this brand to preserve public trust. Public trust is a
       | key factor in healthcare policy in societies where some
       | healthcare participation is voluntary and elections can
       | significantly influence policy priorities.
        
         | macspoofing wrote:
         | >Given that some amount of alternate vaccines are available,
         | governments are doing the right thing by "deferring" deployment
         | of this vaccine for a short while, because this move has the
         | highest chance avoiding direct harm to people from medicine
         | 
         | I think so too, especially since AZ is one of the least
         | effective ones available.
        
         | Zebrakopf wrote:
         | Thank you temp-dude for this viewpoint. I did not think about
         | it in this way before. Weighing the possible deaths of barring
         | one of the vaccines against the possible deaths of a rise in
         | mistrust towards vaccines seems like an impossible task.
         | 
         | However, the findings of blood clotting alone would not have
         | sufficed for this argument as they really should be no cause
         | for concern at this point in time. The knee-jerk response of
         | other countries on the other hand makes this reasoning much
         | more valid. Something something self-fulfilling prophecy
        
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