[HN Gopher] A Model of the Cosmos in the Ancient Greek Antikythe...
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       A Model of the Cosmos in the Ancient Greek Antikythera Mechanism
        
       Author : sohkamyung
       Score  : 221 points
       Date   : 2021-03-12 13:07 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | nograpes wrote:
       | Can anyone help me understand why gears with prime numbers of
       | teeth would not be mechanizable?
       | 
       |  _For Venus the original designer faced a dilemma: the known
       | period relation (5, 8) was very inaccurate, whereas the accurate
       | (720, 1151) was not mechanizable because 1151 is a prime number,
       | requiring a gear with 1151 teeth._
       | 
       | I thought that gears with prime numbers of teeth would be
       | advantageous because it would spread the wear evenly across the
       | gear that it contacted.
        
         | blt wrote:
         | 1151 is too many teeth for a gear. The teeth would not be deep
         | enough to transmit power effectively. You can't make this exact
         | ratio using gears with fewer teeth because 1151 is prime (more
         | generally, whenever the numerator and denominator are coprime).
        
         | vgel wrote:
         | In addition to the other comments, gears with a prime number of
         | teeth were undesirable because they couldn't be laid out by
         | iterative division of a circle. A gear with 64 teeth can be
         | easily laid out by dividing the circle into fourths, dividing
         | those fourths into fourths, and again to get 64 even divisions.
         | For a gear with a prime number of teeth, the only option is to
         | guess-and-check walk a pair of calipers around the circle,
         | adjusting them iteratively until you make the exact number of
         | steps and wind up at the exact same place. Without vision
         | magnification, this was extremely difficult to do accurately.
         | Clickspring (see top comment) did some experiments with a large
         | dividing plate that makes the process somewhat easier, but it
         | would still be far more difficult than making a non-prime
         | number of teeth.
        
         | biggieshellz wrote:
         | You can't split them up into several smaller gear pairs, so you
         | actually need two gears with 720 and 1151 teeth. A gear with
         | 1151 teeth is impractical to make, both in terms of size and in
         | terms of the manufacturing capability at the time.
        
         | wolfd wrote:
         | It's tough to make gears with that many teeth, especially if
         | you want them to mesh with smaller gears.
         | 
         | Also, meshing against a 1-tooth gear is problematic, so you
         | would need to probably increase that to >4 teeth to have it
         | work. Then your bigger gear needs to have >4x the teeth to get
         | the desired ratio.
        
       | JKCalhoun wrote:
       | The design, so slim, so dense, so well engineered. There has to
       | have been ones that came before. Too clever to not be an
       | iteration.
       | 
       | I wonder if we'll ever discover another.
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | The flipside of being so small and dense is that was fragile,
         | which is a problem when you're trying to preserve something for
         | a millennia. It was also undoubtedly expensive, meaning few
         | were produced in the first place and they would be a prime
         | target for thieves and artifact hunters. The one in the article
         | could easily be the last one remaining.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | Would the maker have really been thinking that the thing
           | being made would still be usefull 50, 100 or 1000 years
           | later? Sure, it could be used to look that far ahead, but
           | would they have been concerned about longevity of the device
           | itself?
        
         | mseepgood wrote:
         | > The design, so slim, so dense, so well engineered.
         | 
         | It's the Apple M1 of its time.
        
       | noisy_boy wrote:
       | Wonder if there are common origins of Antikhytera and Sanskrit
       | word for cosmos, Antariksha.
        
         | rexreed wrote:
         | There is no connection. Antikyhtera is the name of the Greek
         | island near where the device was found.
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antikythera
        
         | maxerickson wrote:
         | The mechanism is named after an island near to where it was
         | found. It was found in a wrecked roman ship, the island name is
         | contemporary Greek.
         | 
         | So it would be a coincidence, likely without much meaning.
        
         | exDM69 wrote:
         | Antikythera is the name of the location where the archeological
         | discovery of the mechanism was made. Its origins are unknown.
         | 
         | Thus the mechanism has no relation to the sanskrit word.
        
           | johnnujler wrote:
           | Not sure if it would be wise to dismiss the possibility so
           | easily.
           | 
           | We clearly do not know all the causal elements involved, plus
           | I wouldn't be surprised if the name of the island itself had
           | something to do with "antariksha".
        
             | chatzi wrote:
             | Antikithira is a composite word: Anti (a prefix meaning
             | opposite) + Kithira (a nearby island). So maybe it is the
             | other way round, "antariksha" is named after the island ?
        
               | johnnujler wrote:
               | Never said it was named after antariksha. Merely pointed
               | out the possibility of a connection. Are we considering
               | word formation and origin retracing a settled matter?
               | 
               | Also just realised that I am replying to a sock puppet
               | account. Thanks anyway.
        
               | chatzi wrote:
               | huh? what makes you think I am a sock puppet ?
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | exDM69 wrote:
             | If there is a connection, it is coincidental and unrelated
             | to the mechanism which was made elsewhere, and sank in a
             | storm en route to somewhere else. Antikythera is a small
             | barren island in the mediterranean.
        
         | jcrubino wrote:
         | Great tip.
         | 
         | Archimedes in the Sand Reckoner cites to be solving on a
         | problem from the "Eastern Philosophers". The problem is also in
         | the Vajra Sutra where the numbers of sands in the cosmos is
         | contemplated.
         | 
         | Archimedes Father was an astronomer.
         | 
         | Great parallel lives material that never maid it into the
         | original.
         | 
         | The Antikytheron is written in a Corinthian dialect, from where
         | Archimdes father is said to have come from.
         | 
         | My musing consiracy theory for the Roman sacking of Syracuse
         | was for the Antikythera from which harvest and thus taxes could
         | be better calculated - i.e. Thales.
         | 
         | But the Romans killed the only guy who understood how the
         | Antikythera worked.... so it became a generals paper weight.
        
           | InfiniteRand wrote:
           | The wikipedia article suggests doubt on the Archimedes
           | connection -
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antikythera_mechanism
           | 
           | In particular when it says "it was demonstrated in 2017 that
           | the calendar on the Metonic Spiral is indeed of the
           | Corinthian type but cannot be that of Syracuse," although as
           | evidence goes that doesn't sound definitive.
           | 
           | Nevertheless, it is important to remember that Archimedes was
           | part of an active intellectual community and is reported to
           | have written a (now lost) manuscript on the construction of
           | planetarium-style models ("On Sphere-Making"), so whether or
           | not the artifact is directly from Archimedes there might be
           | an intellectual link.
        
             | jcrubino wrote:
             | Thus my "musing conspiracy"....
             | 
             | Thanks for posting the link. Much of my commentary comes
             | from past research on Archimedes... so I am biased and
             | amused.
             | 
             | If I recall the founding of Syracuse is by Spartans and
             | Corinthians... Archimedes society cared enough about
             | knowledge that he was sent to Alexandria to study. Syracuse
             | was a melting pot of cultures from the start and the
             | Phonecians and the roman conflicts reinforced that to the
             | end.
        
       | cproctor wrote:
       | Is that King's Landing?
        
       | JasonFruit wrote:
       | Sometimes I think the Antikythera Mechanism is more of an ancient
       | Greek Rorschach blot: what people are _certain_ it was supposed
       | to do may reveal more about what is important to them than it
       | does about the mechanism and its maker 's intent.
        
       | sho_hn wrote:
       | If you want to go deeper, I can recommend Jo Marchant's book on
       | the device as a lovely summary of what it does, the research
       | history and how it all relates to the rest of world history.
        
       | jdefelice wrote:
       | Clickspring has been recreating the Antikythera[1] and
       | findings[2] went into a research paper.[3]
       | 
       | [1] Playlist:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML4tw_UzqZE&list=PLZioPDnFPN...
       | 
       | [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkKgdq57uOo
       | 
       | [3] https://bhi.co.uk/antikytheramechanism/
        
         | rfrey wrote:
         | For added incentive for those who make the poor call to not
         | check out the videos, he doesn't just recreate the mechanism...
         | He invents or re-invents the tools and techniques required to
         | make it, using only materials and technology known to be
         | available at the time.
        
           | ddingus wrote:
           | And that is super cool. I think we'd very significantly
           | underestimate what our earlier brothers and sisters could
           | actually do.
           | 
           | And I also believe, since communication was spotty, and took
           | a long time, that there were pockets of real Mastery in the
           | world. But everyone didn't benefit, just because of the
           | communication and knowledge-sharing difficulties from that
           | time.
           | 
           | I think Travelers had an amazing experience. They could go to
           | some parts of the world and literally see the future, and
           | other parts of the world and perhaps feel very connected to
           | the very basics.
           | 
           | Meta: I sure wish this Google Voice thing would not randomly
           | capitalized words. Sorry for the typos I just dictated this
           | and hit send
        
             | willhslade wrote:
             | You can do this today: hang out with a reindeer herder in
             | Siberia and then pop over to Shanghai. Nothing's changed.
        
             | posterboy wrote:
             | you can go to, say, India today and see the past. Same
             | difference.
             | 
             | Since the Median empire at least, the post was also fairly
             | standard. Vice versa, I am affraid I severely underestimate
             | what pockets of real mastery exist in the world, hidden
             | behind NDAs, paywalls and below the threshold in libraries.
             | I'm normally pretty much satisfied with holding a
             | telecommunication device in my hand.
             | 
             | This includes, hypothetically, the modern knowledge of
             | ancient knowledge. So I don't disagree with you.
        
               | mikepurvis wrote:
               | Having the ability to send letters is one thing, but
               | that's not the same as having the kind of widespread
               | societal/academic support system which circulates
               | knowledge, elevates budding experts, and brings together
               | groups interested in a common area of study.
        
               | posterboy wrote:
               | Part of it may be that superior knowledge was highly
               | secretive and well guarded.
               | 
               | That's why I'm saying it's the same as today. There is no
               | good reason a peasant would be unable to read, except
               | that nobody taught them, which should not take too much
               | time for alphabetics, or that it was written in a
               | foreign, holy language.
               | 
               | Heck, Runes were considered to have magical power and
               | ritual incantations were highly formularized--as they are
               | today: a) e.g. in fashion brands, b) e.g. in law code to
               | the extent that it requires professional translators
               | 
               | Or closer to the topic, take maths, which has a highly
               | formularized, international, often ambiguous and domain
               | specific writing system. Indeed, it's also a good example
               | of a science where instruction is crucial, and most
               | information is left out in writing because the reader is
               | expected to have it all in working memory.
               | 
               | Even better analogy, computing machines: Not only do
               | write with them, but in a sense we encode information in
               | the, well, object, just like a sine and cosine wave
               | diagram (or animation) encodes the motion of a radius in
               | the circle. Only the keenest reverse engineers are able
               | to read out the fundamental principles of its working.
               | But, for analogy, CISC was found unwieldy so the trend is
               | going back to RISC and doing hyperscalarity via
               | networking, to solve heat problems.
               | 
               | Anyhow,domain knowledge implies today as it did then
               | _where to get stuff_ , not just how to use it.
               | Specifically for the Iron age this means knowledge of
               | iron mines, geography and geology. Maths and other
               | structural sciences are only peripheral.
               | 
               | Given that early Iron was meteoric, one can kind of see
               | how a connection to the skies and gods could be drawn.
               | 
               | And we have to wonder about fate, too. Some resources
               | simply deplete. It's not that the knowledge is lost, but
               | its application. Calenders have been further developed,
               | certainly. Currently we predict the future on the end of
               | global climate. Yeah that's sad, but it puts the little
               | bit of heat that I put out as background noise into
               | perspective.
        
               | mikepurvis wrote:
               | I think I see where you're coming from, but I would argue
               | this was be much more true a few decades ago than it is
               | today-- the internet is not without its faults, but it
               | _has_ democratized access to a lot of what is needed to
               | ramp up on the arcane languages of things like
               | mathematics and law.
               | 
               | Obviously in-person mentorship and instruction is still
               | ideal, but the modern internet is much more than just a
               | virtual text book or a bunch of videos of recorded
               | lectures-- for any given topic there are a hundred
               | communities which happily welcome novices and are willing
               | to examine your reasoning about a particular problem and
               | help plug the holes.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | >Part of it may be that superior knowledge was highly
               | secretive and well guarded.
               | 
               | Especially when that superior knowledge went against the
               | controling religion of the day in that mass acceptance of
               | the knowledge would severely weaken the control that the
               | religion had on the populace. Some of these religious
               | governing periods set back human learning for centuries.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | My day's schedule just got put on pause.
        
       | spaetzleesser wrote:
       | I always wonder what future archaeologists in will read into
       | artifacts from our time when they find them in 2000 years...
        
         | DamnYuppie wrote:
         | We really like trash made of plastic.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | I'm not so sure. A lot of trash plastic degrades over long
           | periods of time. They might find the plumbing (which is a
           | type of plastic that lasts longer), but that isn't trash in
           | general.
        
         | lallysingh wrote:
         | They'll read digital archives. They'll be fine.
        
           | curtainsforus wrote:
           | Assuming the computers and the archives and the OS'es and the
           | standards documentation and so on and so on survive.
           | 
           | 200 years of javascript-style churn does not a reliable
           | storage method make.
        
         | JoeAltmaier wrote:
         | Mostly they'll be interpreting plumbing. Toilets, sinks will
         | last for 1000 years or longer.
        
         | progre wrote:
         | I read someware that in 2000 years the books we managed to save
         | from the middle ages and up to about 1850 will still be around
         | but anything printed after that will be gone because the paper
         | of the modern age is to fragile to last.
        
           | shadowgovt wrote:
           | The cultures that dominated North and South America prior to
           | the arrival of European explorers and the mass plague that
           | accompanied them were absolutely vast, and we are only now
           | starting to piece together the size and scale of some of
           | those empires.
           | 
           | There are several reasons for the gap in understanding of
           | their scale, but one is that the well-settled communities
           | (with some exceptions primarily centered in South America)
           | often used primarily wooden construction, as wood was
           | extremely plentiful in the New World. When the European
           | plagues led to 90%-plus die-offs in these cultures, the
           | survivors couldn't maintain the scale of cities they'd built,
           | and since wood rots relatively quickly, their permanent
           | settlements were all but eradicated by the time any
           | subsequent waves of European exploration arrived to write
           | down what they saw in languages Europeans could read.
           | 
           | Modern archaeology techniques, by analyzing land cultivation
           | and the few remnants a wooden building leaves of foundation,
           | are starting to comprehend the scale of the cities built by
           | the original settlers of North and South America.
           | 
           | https://www.history.com/news/native-american-cahokia-
           | chaco-c...
        
             | shakezula wrote:
             | They were also about as complex and technologically
             | advanced as their Old World counterparts. I'm consistently
             | impressed by how well South American cultures understood
             | the cosmos, plumbing, irrigation, materials, etc... South
             | American civilizations would have been a source of new
             | information, and no doubt a bunch of knowledge was lost.
             | 
             | We only have a few books left from thousands of years of
             | civilizations. It makes me incredibly sad to think about
             | the history we lost. It would be like if we only had one or
             | two books to understand all of Roman history. Absolutely
             | blows my mind how fragile everything we've built is.
        
       | SeeManDo wrote:
       | Where are the ancient Nazi conspiracies and how this machine is
       | related to JFK and the Illuminati pawn stars?
        
         | gatlin wrote:
         | Eh, even we think it's a reach to connect antikythera to George
         | H W Bush like that.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | throwaway81523 wrote:
       | Sadly or maybe only interestingly, the Clickspring folks' recent
       | article[1] arguing that the mechanism used a lunar calendar
       | doesn't seem to be cited in this new article.
       | 
       | [1] https://bhi.co.uk/antikytheramechanism/
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Given how recent his publication is, it is quite likely that
         | the authors of this were already in the final edit stages when
         | they became aware of it, and so it didn't affect anything in
         | their paper and so wasn't cited.
        
       | motohagiography wrote:
       | Forgive the naive question, but does this mean these ancient
       | Greeks knew the world was round thousands of years ago?
        
         | ljf wrote:
         | Yes; https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/ancient-
         | gre...
        
         | tsoukase wrote:
         | Eratosthenes even measured earth's circumference with
         | astonishing accuracy. They knew more than we think they knew...
        
         | dan-robertson wrote:
         | The Greeks deduced that lunar eclipses were caused by the
         | earth's shadow and, from the consistent roundness of the
         | shadow, that it was a globe.
        
       | belval wrote:
       | What happened to these advanced civilization of the antiquity? We
       | have drawings of highly advanced siege engines yet it seem that
       | after the fall of Rome we all went back to fighting with sticks
       | for a few centuries. Why is that?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | rozab wrote:
         | Jonathan Blow has an excellent talk on this topic in relation
         | to software.
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/pW-SOdj4Kkk
        
         | 4gotunameagain wrote:
         | oops
        
           | ch4s3 wrote:
           | This isn't really historically correct. There was no single
           | burning of the Great Library of Alexandria that completely
           | destroyed it. Like many libraries of antiquity it suffered
           | several fires and recovered, but eventually fell into decline
           | and disfavor as other academia centers sprang up.
        
         | LegitShady wrote:
         | Literally the dark ages...go read up on it.
        
           | McRask wrote:
           | Define irony
        
             | LegitShady wrote:
             | meh the dark ages are well studied and any minor effort to
             | find some information on it will get someone more and more
             | accurate information on it than asking on HN. It's the kind
             | of question that has a short but useless answer that fits
             | on hackernews 'fall of rome bad for progress' but the
             | answer you should get is to go put in some basic effort and
             | look it up - its easy to find information on using the
             | terms 'dark ages'.
        
               | belval wrote:
               | You assessment is fair, but there is a lot of data out
               | there that you simply won't find by using Google search.
               | One exemple is the "A collection of unmitigated pedantry"
               | blog which I found after someone used it in a comment
               | when replying to me.
               | 
               | If you google "Iron processing in the middle ages" you
               | won't find Bret Devereaux' excellent series[1], yet it is
               | a much better read than the Wikipedia page.
               | 
               | [1] https://acoup.blog/2020/09/18/collections-iron-how-
               | did-they-...
        
         | progre wrote:
         | Rome was the fiber internet of those days. When west rome
         | collapsed europe went back to dial-up.
        
           | thaumasiotes wrote:
           | That's basically correct. Rome organized things on a very
           | large scale with high productivity. Its replacement by less-
           | organized tiny local systems cratered productivity, and the
           | resulting systems couldn't afford to do the things Rome had
           | done.
        
             | progre wrote:
             | I came by this analogy by Dan Carlin. He was talking about
             | "Germania" but the same applies to Sweden. When Sweden was
             | christianized around 1000 AD this was basically equivalent
             | to "being connected to the internet". Suddenly the vast
             | resources (intellectual and communicational) of the
             | catholic church where available to the (now christian)
             | elite, giving them a huge advantage.
        
         | tokai wrote:
         | As I understand it this idea of the dark ages isn't supported
         | by modern historians.
        
           | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
           | The "dark ages" is a good description of what happened
           | throughout most of Western Europe after the fall of the
           | Western Roman Empire. The nuance is that the Eastern Roman
           | (Byzantine) Empire survived much longer, and that somewhat
           | well organized kingdoms remained in parts of the West for a
           | time.
           | 
           | But there was a remarkable economic and cultural collapse in
           | most of the former Western Roman Empire. Large cities mostly
           | disappeared. Literacy nearly disappeared, and was only really
           | preserved by the Church. The extensive Roman system of
           | taxation and the public goods it paid for (roads, aqueducts,
           | baths, theaters, security) nearly disappeared. Without large
           | cities, roads and security, long-distance trade collapsed and
           | the economy became much simpler. Skilled trades that existed
           | in the highly complex Roman economy were forgotten. Classical
           | literature and philosophy were largely lost in the West.
           | Essentially, urbanized classical civilization disappeared.
           | 
           | There's a tendency to talk nowadays about the "transformation
           | of the Roman Empire," rather than its fall, but I find that a
           | bit too euphemistic.
        
             | stryan wrote:
             | > Large cities mostly disappeared. Literacy nearly
             | disappeared, and was only really preserved by the Church.
             | 
             | Neither of those were wide-spread in Western Europe during
             | the Roman empire either. If you take a look at the major
             | cities of the Roman Empire they're generally in either
             | Italy, Byzantium, or North Africa[0]. All of which
             | continued past the fall of Rome. Literacy rates were also
             | questionable [1].
             | 
             | > Without large cities, roads and security, long-distance
             | trade collapsed and the economy became much simpler.
             | 
             | Long-distance trade certainly did not collapse after the
             | fall. While it did decrease to certain extent in the near
             | time period, it rebound within a century or two [2].
             | 
             | [0] https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=4
             | db977...!
             | 
             | [1] https://www.quora.com/Was-literacy-common-in-the-Roman-
             | Empir...
             | 
             | [2] https://oxfordre.com/economics/view/10.1093/acrefore/97
             | 80190...
        
         | sho_hn wrote:
         | In the case of the Antikythera mechanism, it turns out the
         | knowledge and technology weren't entirely lost. There's a
         | fairly well-established throughline now from Babylonian
         | observation-based astronomical tables to Greek philosophical
         | views and mathematics (and craftmanship) to Arabic astrolabes
         | (retaining some of the gear-train tech) and then back to
         | Europe, to the monastic astronomical clocks. Then the
         | escapement was invented and added in, and boom you got modern
         | industrial technology.
         | 
         | There are a lot of loss and bottlenecks along that journey,
         | though. And many notable locations, installations and
         | individuals. The history of instrument-making and how it is
         | intertwined with philosophical and religious views on the skies
         | and the topology of the universe is quite fascinating (e.g. the
         | motivations for observing the sky, being able to produce
         | predictions at all, crafting models, etc).
        
           | posterboy wrote:
           | > The history of instrument-making and how it is intertwined
           | with philosophical and religious views on the skies and the
           | topology of the universe is quite fascinating (e.g. the
           | motivations for observing the sky ...
           | 
           | While this is in part to be attributed to superstition and
           | religion, this in turn was of material importance to
           | navigation, aggriculture, and perhaps philosophy. Indeed, it
           | is curious how those interrelated.
           | 
           | For one, nomads would need to know when it was time to move
           | on, and where to.
        
           | jcrubino wrote:
           | The Roman were truly a successful agrarian civilization, but
           | became lackluster in progress from there.
           | 
           | They never made an overwhelming shift to mathematical /
           | science based civilization. They took over Syracuse with a
           | mandate to keep Archimedes alive, but that failed. Some
           | scholars say the only roman contribution to math was
           | numerals.
           | 
           | Basically they reaped the profits of empire, and fell into
           | the cargo cults of opulent success, abandoning the prior
           | agricultural based common sense by never integrating new
           | ideas in the Aristotelian domains except for to pay homage to
           | the originating culture enough to collect taxes.
        
             | dragonelite wrote:
             | You mean slave labor society right, if you can't expand the
             | empire fast enough, you "human capital" stream dries up,
             | its like taking on too much debt and not being able to keep
             | up with paying.
        
               | jcrubino wrote:
               | I meant The Romans, started out as an agrarian culture
               | where Ceasars were more interested in tending the farm
               | than politics that evolved into the spectacle that Rome
               | is now known for.
               | 
               | Not ready to drop a book on HN regarding the nuance of
               | Roman evolution just yet.
        
               | NoImmatureAdHom wrote:
               | Everybody slaved. The Romans were just better at it (and
               | most other things).
        
             | deek wrote:
             | They dabbled in engineering as well
        
               | jcrubino wrote:
               | But killed Calculus with Archimedes.
        
         | kipchak wrote:
         | Very broadly speaking we tend to now think of history or time
         | as being fairly linear with progress being made while ancients
         | tended to think of history as cyclical and those before them as
         | random.
         | 
         | The Antikythera mechanism or the somewhat inexplicable late
         | bronze age collapse and the unidentifiable "sea people" that
         | caused it are good examples to indicate there's some degree of
         | cyclicality, wherein people stumble across ruins more advanced
         | than their own civilization and wonder where they could have
         | gone.[1]
         | 
         | Getting to the "why" part, Peter Turchin's work expanding on
         | Ibn Khaldun's concept of Asabiyyah seems the most compelling to
         | me.
         | 
         | [1]https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46565/ozymandias
        
           | smogcutter wrote:
           | Regarding the "Bronze Age collapse", there's some thinking
           | that it might be much less of an inexplicable cataclysm than
           | it usually appears. Here's a really interesting
           | r/askhistorians thread about it: https://www.reddit.com/r/Ask
           | Historians/comments/fm3vs1/how_d...
        
           | HenryKissinger wrote:
           | Peter Turchin is not a professional historian. He's a hack
           | whose theories have been debunked.
        
             | NoImmatureAdHom wrote:
             | You're right, he's not a professional historian. And that's
             | a good thing, because History the academic field is
             | hopelessly sick and outdated.
             | 
             | Turchin may not be right about everything (or most things),
             | but the kind of thing he's trying to do is the path
             | forward. The really interesting action in history (broadly
             | construed) is all being done by people doing history within
             | analytic paradigms, like Turchin. Look for work by people
             | who call themselves economic historians.
        
             | generalizations wrote:
             | People throw around "debunked" like it's final. In reality,
             | it's just a lazy dismissal without substance.
             | 
             | You want to say he's wrong about something, say what it is
             | and give a reason. Otherwise you're just avoiding actual
             | critical thought.
             | 
             | (Also, I have no idea who Peter Turchin is. I just don't
             | like it when people inflict their defective thinking on
             | others.)
        
               | waserwill wrote:
               | The short of it: Turchin advocates for a field of
               | 'cliodynamics' which tries to apply math to meaningfully
               | describe and predict social trends, especially large ones
               | such as collapse.
               | 
               | His own description from a decade ago:
               | https://www.nature.com/articles/454034a A large project
               | he directs and uses to study this:
               | http://seshatdatabank.info/seshat-about-us/ And has
               | produced some interesting descriptive work such as:
               | https://www.pnas.org/content/115/2/E144.full
               | 
               | Some of his group's work [0] has been criticized on
               | methodological grounds [1]. While some of his work may
               | produce overdetermined models (trying to model history,
               | considering all of the possible variables, can be
               | tricky), the sorts of things he is interested in have
               | been developed a fair bit, of late [2].
               | 
               | [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1043-4 [1]
               | https://github.com/babeheim/moralizing-gods-reanalysis
               | [2] https://www.pnas.org/content/114/30/7846.full
        
               | generalizations wrote:
               | That is cool stuff. Thanks for the links, I'll be reading
               | those later.
        
             | kipchak wrote:
             | Assuming you're referring to [1] or [2] or [3], it doesn't
             | look like a debunking to me so much as healthy scientific
             | debate, specifically between the Seshat and DRH projects
             | who are both competing for limited resources-The John
             | Templeton Foundation funds both for example.
             | 
             | In such a case the criticism of not being a professional
             | historian seem odd, as the credentials of Edward
             | Slingerland and Bret Beheim, the lead authors of the
             | critical papers, seem to be fairly comparable to Turchin's.
             | 
             | [1]https://psyarxiv.com/jwa2n/
             | 
             | [2]https://eslingerland.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2019/09/Hist
             | oria...
             | 
             | [3]http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/what-came-first-
             | big-god...
        
         | ontekhunhsentuh wrote:
         | Knowledge is passed on from master to apprentice. Nearly-
         | universal literacy helped to alleviate this issue somewhat, but
         | even today most practical knowledge is passed on by people
         | working together.
         | 
         | The result is that even a gap of a single generation is enough
         | for some knowledge to be lost. That's why Roman concrete was
         | forgotten, why we can't build a Saturn V anymore, why you can't
         | just start a chip-fab with enough money, and why it's so hard
         | to maintain code without access to someone that designed the
         | code-base.
         | 
         | Most things, even if they're written down, are more accurately
         | modelled in someone's brain.
        
           | leafmeal wrote:
           | Can you elaborate on the Saturn V a bit more?
        
             | ontekhunhsentuh wrote:
             | This came up when people started looking sideways at the
             | ballooning costs of the Space Launch System. Even though we
             | have extensive blueprints and even parts left over from
             | Saturn V rockets, the institutional knowledge to use any of
             | those things simply doesn't exist anymore, and would have
             | to be re-created at exceptional cost of you wanted to build
             | another one.
             | 
             | https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/6281/why-not-
             | build...
        
           | phkahler wrote:
           | That's why odd gaps appear. Like an article about how China
           | can't manufacture the balls for ball-point pens, or critical
           | parts for jet engines.
           | 
           | Maybe a few missing pieces are why Intel cant seem to figure
           | out EUV lithography.
           | 
           | None of these things are trivial and probably not documented
           | in a way where a noob could pick them up.
        
             | shakezula wrote:
             | Even just the specific knowledge of building a house is
             | probably a generation removed from most people these days.
             | It scares me to think of just how fragile we really are.
        
               | hnuser123456 wrote:
               | Sure, but what is forgotten makes room for novel ideas
               | which are hopefully sometimes improvements. Plus, now we
               | have computers to write and share this knowledge so it
               | doesn't always have to be memorized.
        
               | 0xdeadbeefbabe wrote:
               | > which are hopefully sometimes improvements
               | 
               | The death of Latin is very upsetting.
        
               | rajansaini wrote:
               | Why is that out of curiosity?
        
               | pmlnr wrote:
               | It was the common language of the time.
        
               | 0xdeadbeefbabe wrote:
               | Reading the English for Catullus 16 (pretty dirty) and
               | feeling jealous that they could put it so succinctly in
               | their own language. Also this TED talk https://www.ted.co
               | m/talks/lera_boroditsky_how_language_shape....
        
               | qiqing wrote:
               | Technically, there are more Latin speakers alive today
               | than cumulatively during the Roman Empire. However, I
               | think negligibly few are _native_ speakers.
               | 
               | Exponential population growth is weird.
        
               | NoImmatureAdHom wrote:
               | https://xkcd.com/1513/
        
         | krapp wrote:
         | The fall of the Roman empire was essentially a post-apocalyptic
         | event for the West. The economic and political collapse of
         | Rome's satellite states halted the progress of technological
         | and cultural development across subsequent generations. Many
         | ancient Greek classics, such as the works of Aristotle might
         | have been lost forever had they not been saved by Islamic
         | scholars.
         | 
         | And don't think it couldn't happen again. We've stored the
         | entirety of our cultural knowledge on an ephemeral digital
         | network that depends upon an intricate and vastly complex
         | technological infrastructure. If that collapses, so does modern
         | civilization, and we're back to horses and buggies.
        
           | stryan wrote:
           | > The fall of the Roman empire was essentially a post-
           | apocalyptic event for the West. The economic and political
           | collapse of Rome's satellite states halted the progress of
           | technological and cultural development across subsequent
           | generations.
           | 
           | "Halted" and "post-apocalyptic" are strong words. The Fall of
           | Rome was a very long and drawn out event, and plenty of
           | technological and cultural development continued after the
           | Fall. r/AskHistorians has many good posts[1] describing why
           | the "Dark Ages" weren't Dark and the various advances made
           | during the post-Rome pre-Rennasiance period.
           | 
           | A lot of people think that technological and philosophical
           | progress stopped after Rome, when really it just isn't talked
           | about. In my opinion, this is probably because it's a lot
           | more exciting to talk about Roman architecture since many
           | buildings still exist today, rather then the three-field
           | system and mould-board plows that kept the population alive.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/235w3l/wh
           | y_a...
        
             | ivanhoe wrote:
             | Well, almost all of the work of Greek philosophers and
             | their science and philosophy achievements were in Catholic
             | Europe completely forgotten and actively censored for
             | centuries. Fantastic Roman infrastructure, aqueducts,
             | running water inside the multi-storey buildings and huge
             | sewage systems were completely neglected - people
             | completely lost the Antic ideas of hygiene - resulting in
             | horrible sanitary conditions as newly built cities lacked
             | any sanitary infrastructure. Even rich people lived like
             | that, almost no castle even after the middle age had a
             | sewage system, nor running water. They used wells for water
             | and dropped sewage in front of houses, on the streets
             | directly.
             | 
             | Now, they didn't return to stone age of course, practical
             | tools and technologies that were a part of common knowledge
             | remained in use, but many advanced engineering skills were
             | lost. Also the society drastically changed, it fell into
             | religious fanaticism and extreme conservatism - which is
             | the main reason why it was called the dark age actually.
        
               | stryan wrote:
               | > Well, almost all of the work of Greek philosophers and
               | their science and philosophy achievements were in
               | Catholic Europe completely forgotten and actively
               | censored for centuries.
               | 
               | While less available they were still known and studied
               | and certainly not censored. Neo-Platonist and
               | Aristotelian thought was very influential in the Post-
               | Antiquity and Early-Medieval time periods: see the Desert
               | Fathers and the Scholastics. And that's not even talking
               | about the fact that the Byzantines were there the entire
               | time; most "Renaissance" ideas had the origins in
               | Medieval Byzantine thought.
               | 
               | As for hygiene, feel free to look at the Wikipedia
               | article for it[1]: the sewers weren't that effective,
               | people still threw rubbish in the streets, and the
               | bathhouses were cesspools of disease. And that's not
               | talking about that fact that Roman sewage and hygiene was
               | just that: Roman. It's not like the Roman Empire was some
               | golden age where every city in Europe lived like that.
               | Most places it was just as dirty and filthy.
               | 
               | > Also the society drastically changed, it fell into
               | religious fanaticism and extreme conservatism - which is
               | the main reason why it was called the dark age actually.
               | It went from being under the control of an autocratic
               | emperor to...being under the control of an autocratic
               | feudal lord. Saying it "fell into [..] conservatism"
               | seems a bit off when it really just traded one man for
               | many. Religious fanaticism I won't bother talking about
               | (why does everyone think people suddenly became more
               | religious after Rome?). As for the term dark ages, that's
               | just a term Petrarch alluded to the time period with,
               | which was then later used in reference to the fewer
               | historical records we have for the time period. It made
               | no reference to religious fanaticism or conservatism.
               | 
               | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanitation_in_ancient_Ro
               | me
        
               | lurquer wrote:
               | You're not arguing against a competing view of history.
               | 
               | You are arguing against an ideology.
               | 
               | Save your breath.
               | 
               | This is their view of history:
               | 
               | Ancient Rome was enlightened. Then Christianity destroyed
               | all the worlds great accomplishments. Then, Galileo
               | showed everyone who was boss.
               | 
               | Oh yeah... a corollary to this version: Islam was as
               | nearly enlightened as Rome and would have ushered in an
               | age of elegant sophistication but for the no-good
               | Crusaders.
               | 
               | So sad...
               | 
               | In reality, Ancient Rome was a brutal slave-based society
               | where life was cheap, religious fanaticism was rampant,
               | children were disposable, and death was glorified.
               | 
               | Given a choice of being an average inhabitant of the
               | Roman Empire or an average inhabitant of medieval Europe,
               | only the truly ignorant would choose the former.
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | JoeAltmaier wrote:
           | Modern digital recordings can last for a very long time. And
           | old USB stick dug up in hundreds of years, can be
           | reinterpreted by a future modern civilization. They're kind
           | of all 'saved by Islamic scholars' in that sense?
        
             | tylermw wrote:
             | The data on that USB drive will deteriorate over a couple
             | decades. NAND memory generally isn't an adequate format for
             | archival purposes.
        
               | JoeAltmaier wrote:
               | Yeah I see online empirical data that shows anywhere from
               | years to centuries, depending on temperature. So not
               | thousands of years.
        
               | beagle3 wrote:
               | Indeed. The BBC's Domesday book was put on a pre-CD glass
               | based optical medium which should last forever, but they
               | managed to lose reading equipment for it, and a huge
               | digitization effort from the 80s would have been lost
               | (they published a call for help, and eventually someone
               | found a reader in their garage.... but it was a close
               | call)
        
             | krapp wrote:
             | A future civilization would need to reconstruct a
             | compatible operating system, software and hardware first,
             | then build something with a USB port to put the stick into.
             | 
             | It's not impossible but consider how many ancient human
             | languages we still can't translate, or can only translate
             | due to coincidence (as in the case of the Rosetta Stone
             | with Egyptian hieroglyphics.) Translating digital
             | information in a similar cultural vacuum would be
             | exponentially more difficult. If that stick is encrypted,
             | how does one even know there is information to begin with?
        
           | salemh wrote:
           | You mean West Romes fall. The Eastern Roman empire lasted
           | until the 15th century. Eastern Rome was sacked in 1204 which
           | was the actual blow that jump stated the Western
           | Enlightenment after plundering Eastern Rome for 50 years.
           | https://www.ancient.eu/article/1188/1204-the-sack-of-
           | constan... https://www.britannica.com/place/Byzantine-
           | Empire/Byzantine-... https://historyofislam.com/contents/the-
           | classical-period/con...
           | 
           | The Ottomans did not take over East Rome until the 15th
           | century, where much of the plunder was already gone to the
           | West. https://www.warhistoryonline.com/ancient-
           | history/fallconstan...
           | 
           | While the West would term the East Romans as "Byzantines" in
           | the 15th Century, this isn't correct to say they were not in
           | Roman. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantium
        
         | dragonelite wrote:
         | A imperial decline mostly means a lot of chaos for a couple of
         | decades, I think the most recent example would be the soviet
         | union. It took Putin like almost 2 decades to recover/stabilize
         | from the western plunder of Russia in the 90s via Russian
         | oligarchs. Russia lost a lot of brain power in that period and
         | lost a lot of institutional knowledge which might takes
         | generations to rebuild again.
         | 
         | Also the engineers and high ranking members of society have to
         | resources to flee to more stable regions and carry their
         | knowledge with them. Its also the engineers that are usually
         | given grace or offers by a opposing forces/rivals.
        
         | jtolmar wrote:
         | When the Western Roman Empire collapsed, the various successor
         | states didn't have enough organizational capacity / surplus /
         | numbers to do things like arm permanent standing armies with
         | advanced siege engines, or build aqueducts and long paved roads
         | everywhere. But there was still technological advancement in
         | plows, water mills, and crop rotation even shortly after the
         | collapse.
        
       | redwall_hp wrote:
       | This cites Price's "Gears from the Greeks" (1974), one of the
       | major papers on the Antikythera Mechanism. I read through it once
       | for a university assignment. It's fascinating and well worth
       | checking out if you're interested in the device.
        
       | m-app wrote:
       | Related video presentation:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQnE0BLEi8k
        
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