[HN Gopher] Why software projects take longer than you think: a ...
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       Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical
       model (2019)
        
       Author : max_
       Score  : 24 points
       Date   : 2021-03-06 08:50 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (erikbern.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (erikbern.com)
        
       | Jtsummers wrote:
       | Past discussion with a lot of comments:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19671673
        
       | vbtemp wrote:
       | I tend to be skeptical of statistical analyses like this.
       | 
       | At the end of the day, it's usually someone who is paying or
       | funding a task, and someone who will perform the task. The person
       | performing the task wants to please the person funding it (in
       | order to secure that funding). This commonly involves minimizing
       | difficulty and giving optimistic estimates.
       | 
       | People who give straight answers (something like: this is really
       | hard, it will take a lot of time, there are lots of unknowns, and
       | might not be achievable given the budget) won't get the award.
       | Those who overdo the bullshit and give transparently falsely
       | optimistic estimates will not receive it either. So those who
       | fall in the middle do end up getting the award.
       | 
       | TLDR being, model this effect Game Theoretically, where the
       | "blowup factor" is derived from a Nash equilibrium between
       | counterparties playing optimal strategies seeking to optimize
       | their payoff.
       | 
       | Finally, take three companies: Company A delivers a project in
       | 50% of the time, and 50% under budget. Company B fails to deliver
       | the project, after consuming 100% of the budget. Company C
       | completes 90% of the project with 100% of the funding, and only
       | needs 20% more money to finish it. The customer will most likely
       | top them off, because they are so close, and it's a sunk cost.
       | 
       | Who makes the most money? Company C. Who is the biggest loser?
       | Company A (despite being the best). Anyway, for my next trick,
       | I'll explain why this same effect causes agile to make everything
       | take longer, cost more, and make everyone more miserable.
        
         | fart32 wrote:
         | I'd love to hear your standpoint on the agile.
        
           | mikequinlan wrote:
           | Agile plays this scenario out every two weeks, instead of
           | once per project.
        
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       (page generated 2021-03-08 23:00 UTC)