[HN Gopher] The Black Death: A New Culprit?
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       The Black Death: A New Culprit?
        
       Author : benbreen
       Score  : 27 points
       Date   : 2021-03-03 23:56 UTC (23 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.historytoday.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.historytoday.com)
        
       | ncmncm wrote:
       | This re-opens the question of what caused the eastern Roman
       | _Plague of Justinian_ in CE 541-549[0], and repeatedly for
       | centuries after. Clearly, no Tian Shan marmots carried by Mongols
       | were involved there, although Huns might have been. But it is
       | confirmed that it was _Y. pestis_.
       | 
       | [0] <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian>
        
       | autokad wrote:
       | one thing to note is look at the outbreaks specifically, such as
       | the one in England 1665
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPe6BgzHWY0
       | 
       | We often forget of looking at the diaries and writing of the
       | people at the time, the ones that actually lived during this time
       | as opposed to academic articles opining on some small piece of
       | data.
       | 
       | The one thing of note was that the outbreak ended as soon as cold
       | set in, specifically the first freeze. The ending was very
       | abrupt, so it seems reasonable to me to ask: what did that frost
       | kill? why was the vector for the plague eliminated by a frost and
       | did not return the next year?
       | 
       | It makes me wonder if mosquitoes (like a specific species) were
       | somehow spreading the disease.
        
       | gregwebs wrote:
       | I doubt a model of disease for the plague that requires rodent to
       | human transmission. Here is a good explanation of evidence of
       | spread direct from human to human:
       | https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubo...
       | 
       | According to Wikipedia "Although academic debate continues, no
       | single alternative solution has achieved widespread acceptance":
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Causes
        
         | ianburrell wrote:
         | The Black Death was definitely bubonic plague, confirmed by
         | genetic analysis in 2010. That article is from 2001.
         | 
         | This article is about genetics localizing the source of plague
         | to the Tian Shin mountains and maybe to marmots.
        
           | gregwebs wrote:
           | There are also more recent papers such as this 2018 paper
           | concluding that rodent fleas could not have caused the second
           | pandemic:
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819418/
        
       | soperj wrote:
       | Real culprit is clearly humans.
        
       | gumby wrote:
       | If this had been known sooner there might be a line of
       | fashionable outdoor clothing called "Rat".
        
       | choeger wrote:
       | The idea that the mongols would carry the pest seems strikingly
       | logical at first. After all, what did the conquistadors carry to
       | the Americas?
       | 
       | But that model doesn't really work well, if one thinks about it.
       | The mongols did move large armies. These armies were not exactly
       | healthy. So any outbreak of the plague would have severely
       | hampered them. But how would they carry it to then infect, for
       | instance, a besieged city?
       | 
       | So either the plague _followed_ the conquest, e.g., via trade
       | routes or it was _caused_ by the conquest, e.g., due to
       | malnutrition of the conquered. But none of _that_ explains the
       | devastating effect it had on europe.
        
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       (page generated 2021-03-04 23:01 UTC)