[HN Gopher] AI Index 2021
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       AI Index 2021
        
       Author : T-A
       Score  : 52 points
       Date   : 2021-03-03 18:03 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (hai.stanford.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (hai.stanford.edu)
        
       | crazypython wrote:
       | Whenever I explain computer programs that write computer
       | programs- compiler theory- and programming language theory to
       | someone, they immediately think "That's AI." Yet compiler
       | research and programming language research don't get any AI
       | funding and is not considered AI.
        
         | hntrader wrote:
         | Perhaps a key distinction is whether the algorithm is mostly
         | learned from data or whether the algorithm is mostly hand-
         | engineered.
         | 
         | What most people refer to as "AI" maintains that the former is
         | a necessary (although not sufficient) condition.
        
           | joe_the_user wrote:
           | _Perhaps a key distinction is whether the algorithm is mostly
           | learned from data or whether the algorithm is mostly hand-
           | engineered._
           | 
           | In a broad view, I don't think there's any meaningful metric
           | for the "mostly" you're talking about.
           | 
           | Sure, "mostly" seems to make sense in the context of
           | laboriously trained deep networks. But if the training
           | process is improved, drawing a line between training and
           | "looking and understanding" become hard/purposeless. At the
           | limit, suppose some crazy genius created a small, "hand
           | crafted" program, from GOFAI or whatever principles and this
           | program "knew how to learn". If you fed it Wikipedia or
           | whatever, it understood that and by it's content, it would
           | then be "mostly trained on data" or would it?
        
             | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
             | Well that's how neural networks er work. They are hand-
             | crafted systems with a human-devised training algorithm,
             | backprop. Their _output_ is a model trained on data. But
             | the algorithms that train the model, themselves, are coded
             | manually.
             | 
             | Same goes for basically all machine learning algorithms.
             | They are hand-crafted systems that train models from data.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Indeed, it is impossible to learn anything "from data".
               | 
               | Data is just measurement of observable variables. A prior
               | model of the meaning of those measurements is required
               | first to parse them into a coherent "observational
               | model"; and then many prior models is required to parse
               | into a representational model.
               | 
               | Few, if any extant "AI" systems are able to take the
               | latter step, not least, as it requires more than
               | measurements of the target system which are always
               | ambiguous. (In particular, it requires a coordinated
               | body).
        
           | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
           | For most of the history of AI research the vast majority of
           | AI applications consisted of hand-crafted programs. For
           | example automated theorem proves, planners, SAT-solvers,
           | game-playing algorithms, expert systems, search algorithms
           | etc, are all hand-crafted, rather than learned from data.
           | 
           | What you say, that it's AI if it's learned from data, that
           | applies to machine learning, but machine learning is only one
           | branch of AI. Of course it's the branch that most people know
           | today, but go maybe a few years back and have a look at e.g.
           | the classes on AI taught at places like Stanford or MIT etc,
           | and you'll find that they're all about probabilities and
           | logic, and machine learning does not feature very
           | prominently. You can see the same thing in the staple AI
           | textbook, "AI- A Modern Approach", which is pretty much all
           | hand-crafted approaches.
        
           | bluecalm wrote:
           | It's strange that it came down to it. AI is a field inspired
           | by our notion of human intelligence. Yet a human can learn to
           | recognize road signs with a fraction of the data state of the
           | art "AI" algorithms need these days. To play chess at the
           | same level as a human master a state of the art neural
           | network based engine needs data from tens of millions of self
           | played games - several orders of magnitude more than a human
           | master encounters (and then the computer has huge advantage
           | in calculation speed and accuracy as well). I don't think
           | deep learning is the end of it. It would be really great to
           | see people venturing into different approaches. We can do
           | much better than pattern recognition on huge amount of data.
        
             | superbcarrot wrote:
             | > several orders of magnitude more than a human master
             | encounters
             | 
             | Not if you account for millions of years of evolution that
             | got your nervous system to its current state and access to
             | books and training materials which add up to multiple
             | decades/centuries of precompiled and synthesised expertise
             | from other people who learned chess in similar ways to you.
             | 
             | This is a minor point though. I agree that deep learning
             | isn't it, or that if it is, that would be quite
             | underwhelming.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Evolution produced the system, not the chess training.
               | Humans aren't born able to play chess.
               | 
               | The relevant comparison is "training time spent on
               | chess".
        
               | ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote:
               | If you want to compare today's state of the art chess
               | playing model to a human that's the relevant comparison,
               | but if you want to compare the current field of AI to
               | humans the line between the system and the training
               | becomes fuzzy. If you look at the past 10 years of AI we
               | have massively reduced the amount of data required to
               | achieve a given score for computer vision models by
               | making changes to the system of the neural networks. In
               | fact it's where most of the improvements have come from
               | rather than increasing the amount of data. I don't see a
               | reason to believe it won't keep working this way. I'd say
               | we're being damn efficient and it doesn't feel fair to
               | say "look at how much data they need, the approach is
               | fundamentally wrong" when we've been at it for such a
               | short amount of time compared to the millions of years it
               | took humans to evolve.
        
               | Isinlor wrote:
               | Human designed chess, chess are made to be played by
               | humans.
               | 
               | If you scramble all pixels in some game in a random, but
               | fixed way, you will never learn to play it.
               | 
               | But speed of training of a simple feed forward network
               | will not change at all.
        
         | currymj wrote:
         | it's true, to some extent AI research is "whatever AI
         | researchers do". whereas if work tackling similar problems is
         | done by PL theory, operations research, or whoever, it's no
         | longer AI.
         | 
         | of course this goes both ways; during the AI winter everyone
         | doing AI research was scrambling to rebrand themselves as doing
         | OR, optimization, computer vision, etc.
         | 
         | and there is still a difference in the terminology and
         | conceptual tools. look at the problem of ensuring that a system
         | will output values that satisfy some constraints.
         | 
         | classically there was a lot of work on constraint solving by
         | people who called themselves AI researchers. meanwhile
         | operations research people worked on integer programming
         | approaches to the same problem. and PL theory people work with
         | abstract interpretations.
        
       | dr_dshiv wrote:
       | IMO, cybernetics is more conceptually grounded than AI -- at
       | least in so far as it is possible to objectively define what
       | constitutes a cybernetic system. The term "Artificial
       | Intelligence" was literally invented for the purposes of
       | attracting grant money. It is still good for that.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | What is their definition of AI?
        
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