[HN Gopher] The Mac price crash of 2021
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Mac price crash of 2021
        
       Author : blinding-streak
       Score  : 49 points
       Date   : 2021-02-27 18:11 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.zdnet.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.zdnet.com)
        
       | rubicon33 wrote:
       | Slightly off topic but - Does anyone here have an opinion on
       | whether or not it's a good idea to update to an M1 macbook?
       | 
       | I'm usually weary of GEN1 products, but it's been hard for me to
       | hold off on picking up one of these. The performance boosts seem
       | to be quite impactful in a daily workflow especially if you're
       | compiling a lot of code regularly.
       | 
       | I'd be upgrading from a late 2015, 15" non-dedicated GPU macbook
       | pro. It works fine and I don't really have any complains other
       | than of course I'd love if it were faster. Since I'm on my
       | computer all the time, removing sources of friction are
       | important.
        
         | kayodelycaon wrote:
         | For myself, I run dual 4K displays and the M1-based laptops
         | don't support that.
        
           | jurmous wrote:
           | They do support it with display link.
           | https://www.macrumors.com/2020/11/24/m1-macs-able-to-run-
           | six...
        
         | RyanShook wrote:
         | I would go ahead and upgrade. For the cost of a MacBook Air
         | your experience will improve a ton.
        
         | smoldesu wrote:
         | I've got an M1 MBA that work sent me for debugging, it spends
         | most of it's time collecting dust. Granted, I'm not a big fan
         | of MacOS, but this computer isn't doing much to change that.
        
         | chrisseaton wrote:
         | They only have 8 GB of RAM don't they? Seems like a major
         | limiting factor for many applications at the moment.
        
           | Jtsummers wrote:
           | 16GB is the max configuration option.
        
           | perardi wrote:
           | Both the Air and Pro have a 16GB option.
           | 
           | https://www.apple.com/macbook-air/specs/
           | 
           | https://www.apple.com/mac/compare/?modelList=MacBookPro-13_1.
           | ..
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
         | I wouldn't right now. First versions after a major update tend
         | to be disappointing compared to what comes afterward. It's
         | usually a good idea to wait until the next refresh.
        
         | Wowfunhappy wrote:
         | If you don't have any complaints, I don't think it's a bad idea
         | to wait a bit longer for the second gen.
        
         | qbasic_forever wrote:
         | The only downsides would be if you need to produce or deal with
         | architecture-specific binaries. For example if you build
         | container images or native code on your machine and ship them
         | up to AWS, Google, etc. to run your service.
         | 
         | With the change to ARM you'll now build an ARM container (or
         | exe, etc.) and it won't run on Intel or AMD-based servers.
         | You'll need to invest time figuring out Rosetta 2, cross-
         | compilation, QEMU, and other multi-architecture workarounds to
         | produce non-native binaries. It's not difficult or particularly
         | confusing once you understand all the moving parts, but it has
         | tripped a lot of people up who thought things would just
         | magically work.
         | 
         | If you're dealing with particularly gnarly messes of complex
         | build systems with obfuscated and obtuse decades old makefile
         | messes it can be quite daunting to add cross compilation and
         | multiarch support. But most codesbases aren't like that and
         | you'll probably be fine. Interpreted and JIT-compiled languages
         | like Python, Node, etc. are generally smooth sailing (unless
         | you link to native code). Modern systems languages like Go,
         | Rust, etc. are very easy to cross compile. With C/C++ you're up
         | against a bit more pain depending on how nice your build system
         | behaves (but let's be honest if you're dealing with a C/C++
         | codebase in 2021 you're used to some pain).
         | 
         | The inverse problem is also now true. If you pull down a
         | container image, download a binary, etc. it ideally has to be
         | ARM to work. Rosetta 2 can help in the short term to get Intel
         | dependencies working, but again there will need to be some work
         | done to get the dependency moved to multiarch and ARM support.
         | 
         | There's also a major gap in this story if anyone on your team
         | is using Intel machines. There is no good equivalent to Rosetta
         | 2 for Intel--i.e. those Intel users are going to have trouble
         | making an ARM binary or container that your mac can consume.
         | You're going to have to coach them up and walk them through
         | using something like QEMU to achieve this goal (this might not
         | be easy, be warned). IMHO it will be easier to push this load
         | onto your CI system (assuming it can support building ARM) so
         | that people just push source code from their machines and CI
         | takes care of ensuring Intel, ARM, etc. builds are available to
         | everyone.
         | 
         | If this sounds like a lot of issues, try to stay on the happy
         | path of using one architecture everywhere. M1 macs + AWS
         | Graviton 2 instances in AWS is 100% ARM64 all the way and
         | really something incredible once you live in that world. Other
         | cloud providers (ahem Azure?? Google??) need to get their act
         | together and get ARM64 instances available yesterday.
        
           | jurmous wrote:
           | You can build a multi-platform docker container which runs on
           | multiple platforms thanks to the buildx command:
           | https://www.docker.com/blog/multi-platform-docker-builds/
           | Already many docker images are published with both x86-64 and
           | arm64.
        
             | qbasic_forever wrote:
             | Yep, the tooling is still lagging a bit in this regard so
             | just be prepared to deal with confusing errors (invalid
             | image format, etc.) when multiarch isn't available.
             | Docker's manifest command is useful to see if a container
             | has ARM builds: https://docs.docker.com/engine/reference/co
             | mmandline/manifes...
        
         | BGthaOG wrote:
         | I have heard complaints when it comes to local development of
         | apps running Python. Seems from [1] any version older than
         | Python 3.9.1 may have problems:
         | 
         | "Python v3.9.1 becomes the first version of the language to
         | support macOS 11 Big Sur. The developers note that the release
         | is made possible thanks to Xcode 11..."
         | 
         | [1] https://www.techradar.com/news/you-can-now-run-python-on-
         | app...
        
           | fmajid wrote:
           | 2.7's ctypes doesn't compile on M1, for instance.
        
           | boxed wrote:
           | News to me! I'm on 3.8 on an M1. Works fine.
        
         | bartvk wrote:
         | The M1 MBP can't drive more than external screen, that's
         | something to think about.
        
           | jurmous wrote:
           | You can connect up to five external screens on the M1 MacBook
           | Pro. https://www.macrumors.com/2020/11/24/m1-macs-able-to-
           | run-six...
        
         | cranekam wrote:
         | The extra grunt is impressive. On my old 2018 MBA playing Zwift
         | on medium quality graphics would cause the fans to howl. My new
         | M1 MBA will run Zwift on high quality graphics, at 2-3x the
         | frame rate, and be 70% idle. Of course, the fans are quiet
         | because there aren't any.
        
         | kcartlidge wrote:
         | I'm a few months in on my M1 Air 8GB base model. To fund it I
         | sold a 2020 Intel Air (before the prices started dropping) and
         | a ThinkPad L14. I have no regrets.
         | 
         | For context, I'm a dev. I do DotNet Core, Node, Go, Python, and
         | Ruby. All of them are far faster than previously on the Intel
         | Air, and at least as fast as the L14 with its 16GB and Ryzen 7
         | Pro. The only performance downside being an initial hit of up
         | to a second or two for the tooling the first time it's used
         | since the last restart (whilst it does its Rosetta wonders).
         | Everything is working as it should, although I have no current
         | need for Docker so can't comment on the progress of that. I had
         | some issues getting Homebrew using ARM versions of stuff (I
         | think, it was a while ago now) but otherwise life is good.
         | 
         | The biggest benefit for me, though, is that unlike previously I
         | am getting this enhanced performance from a stone-cold fanless
         | machine with a battery life good enough that I only plug it in
         | daily out of habit (I could easily go several days without).
         | 
         | Two ports is enough (for me) - bear in mind that really _is_
         | two ports, as mostly there is no need to be connected to the
         | power so you don 't lose one during the day.
         | 
         | The keyboard isn't a patch on the ThinkPads, obviously, but its
         | the proper Apple standard not the dodgy one from a few years
         | back. Feels good, slightly shallow travel. One oddity is there
         | are no longer hotkeys to control key backlights. Unless you
         | open the settings, MacOS does it automatically. I didn't think
         | I'd like that, but it works consistently well.
         | 
         | BTW in the couple of months I've had it, I've had three lock-
         | ups. All when running JetBrains IDEs as it happens, but that's
         | Java for you. Rebooting is quick enough that it wasn't an
         | issue.
        
         | burnthrow wrote:
         | Wait for a screen larger than 13"!
        
       | cjohansson wrote:
       | The lack of control over hardware and software on contemporary
       | Macs is a show-stopper for me. Once they get back to Snow Leopard
       | ideology I'll return, until then it's Linux or Windows for me
        
         | jonplackett wrote:
         | What exactly is it you don't like?
        
           | fmajid wrote:
           | Fears were that they would be locked down like iPhones are,
           | but there is Asahi Linux running on M1 already, and OpenBSD
           | soon.
        
         | dangus wrote:
         | This is a weird attitude I've seen where Snow Leopard is
         | worshipped as "the greatest macOS version there ever was."
         | 
         | Apple's design philosophy isn't particularly different from
         | that time. Snow Leopard was something of a feature freeze to
         | make up for deficiencies with Leopard.
         | 
         | Apple was never some pariah of hardware and software
         | flexibility. If you had a PowerPC Mac or older you dealt with
         | all kinds of incompatibilities from different peripherals,
         | floppy disk formats, and physical connectors.
         | 
         | The interoperability of Macs is the best it's ever been,
         | especially since Apple no longer deals with a <5% market share
         | like the 1990s.
        
           | Wowfunhappy wrote:
           | I can't say for sure what aspect of "Snow Leopard design
           | philosophy" the GP was referring to, but since they also
           | mentioned "lack of control over hardware and software",
           | that's one thing that comes to mind.
           | 
           | I don't think enough people appreciate just how beautifully
           | hackable OS X used to be. The Library folder was unhidden by
           | default, basically inviting users to go explore their
           | systems. Applescript and Automator were treated as first-
           | class citizens, offering an easy way to extend existing apps.
           | Custom themes--while never officially supported--were easy to
           | make via a bit of file replacement, and there seems to have
           | been quite a lot of them, if DeviantArt is any indication.
           | And there was nothing to stop you from writing and loading
           | your own drivers to add support for new hardware, as plenty
           | of enthusiasts did.
           | 
           | Today, stock apps like Music store data in obtuse and non-
           | human-readable locations, Apple Events are virtually useless
           | due to mandatory permission dialogs, kernel extensions are
           | deprecated, and the root filesystem is mounted via a complex
           | snapshot mechanism in which a reboot is required for changes
           | to take effect.
           | 
           | Perhaps this was always Apple's goal. Perhaps it was
           | necessary for security. Perhaps, for a majority of users, it
           | ultimately provides a better experience. But if you are
           | someone who likes to tweak and customize your machine, OS X
           | _used_ to be a great home, in a way that it isn 't today.
        
           | TheCoelacanth wrote:
           | > Snow Leopard was something of a feature freeze to make up
           | for deficiencies with Leopard.
           | 
           | Could that be an indication that users don't really want new
           | features in their OS?
        
             | auggierose wrote:
             | What you want and what you need are two different things
             | ;-)
        
       | cammikebrown wrote:
       | I've been wanting to get a 2015 MacBook Pro before they switched
       | to the worse keyboards, but now I should maybe just look for an
       | even newer one...?
        
         | kiddico wrote:
         | Still using my 2015 MBP 15" with no issues minus some loss of
         | battery life. If you can find one with light usage for cheap it
         | might not be a terrible idea.
         | 
         | I don't use mine for CPU intensive tasks though, so YMMV.
        
         | nicoburns wrote:
         | Rumour has it that they're planning to bring back all the ports
         | in the next version, and that they'll be an 12-core version.
         | Personally I'm waiting for that (but then I already have a 2015
         | model, so I'm in a good position).
        
           | bonestamp2 wrote:
           | > they're planning to bring back all the ports in the next
           | version
           | 
           | I'd be surprised if they brought back ALL of the ports. I'm
           | guessing they'll bring back the HDMI and the sd card slot
           | (although probably microSD this time).
        
             | nicoburns wrote:
             | Yeah, probably not all of them. I'd certainly be surprised
             | to see usb-A. The rumours I heard said the magsafe port
             | would be back too though.
        
               | bonestamp2 wrote:
               | I loved magsafe at the time, but I can't decide if I want
               | magsafe now. It's pretty nice being able to charge most
               | devices in my bag with the same USB-C cord. If they had a
               | magnetic breakaway connection in the middle of a USB-C
               | cord, that would be the best of both worlds.
        
         | sokoloff wrote:
         | I held onto my old one until the 2019s came out. I'm happy with
         | my decision to wait and also with the 2019 MBPro.
         | 
         | Post-pandemic, I'm almost exclusively typing on a Kinesis, but
         | pre-pandemic, I found the laptop keyboard to be okay.
         | 
         | If I'd known we'd have a pandemic, wouldn't be traveling in
         | 2020, and that M1s were coming out, I'd have waited longer, but
         | I'd probably have made other, more impactful decisions than
         | which laptop to buy.
        
       | ThePadawan wrote:
       | So overall, a good time to buy an Intel-based MBP to install
       | Logic Pro and Photoshop on, then completely disconnect them from
       | the Internet?
        
         | H1Supreme wrote:
         | Doesn't Photoshop require an internet connection?
        
           | ThePadawan wrote:
           | I'm blissfully unaware of the current state of Photoshop.
           | 
           | I've heard nothing but complaints about their licensing, but
           | IIRC some older versions (CS6?) still work after only one-
           | time activation.
        
       | fmajid wrote:
       | Conversely, I expect used Intel MacBook and Mac Mini prices to go
       | up when the last models are discontinued in 1-2 years' time, as
       | that will be the only way to run x86 virtualization for Windows
       | et al.
       | 
       | It's called a dead-cat bounce.
        
       | jonplackett wrote:
       | Resale value of the older laptops is still decent. 2013 MacBook
       | Pro's still going for PS750 on eBay - For a machine 8 years old?
       | I think it only cost PS2000 back then anyway. So that Mac has
       | only cost PS13 a month to own.
        
         | lostmsu wrote:
         | In U.S. you can get it for $370 (~GBP 265):
         | https://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Apple-MacBook-Pro-13-3-RETINA-...
        
           | jonplackett wrote:
           | This is only 13 inch and 8gb ram, small SSD. I'm at least
           | talking about decent versions.
           | 
           | Saying that, I still own a MacBook Pro 2013 and a newer 2016
           | for from work, and the performance is indistinguishable - so
           | maybe PS750 is a good deal.
           | 
           | That is all part of the reason prices stayed high - until
           | there was a genuine update.
        
         | burnthrow wrote:
         | Nobody's paying that much for a 2013 MBP. The will have to
         | lower the price considerably before it's "going."
        
           | jonplackett wrote:
           | No they're actually selling. Just saw one go for PS850 a few
           | weeks back. And one with only 256gb SSD for PS650. It's
           | crazy!
        
             | burnthrow wrote:
             | I stand corrected, that is crazy!
        
       | supernova87a wrote:
       | I wish articles would be more specific about the loads and use
       | cases under which the new Macs shine versus are not much better
       | than the old Intel macs.
       | 
       | I thought the main strengths distinguishing the performance of
       | the M1 were the idle power chips that saved a lot of energy, and
       | the shared CPU/GPU memory. For loads running flat out all the
       | time and emphasizing GPU, the difference is not as great, I
       | thought?
       | 
       | Apple is still selling Macbooks with Intel inside. That cannot be
       | just stupidity, right?
        
         | apozem wrote:
         | > Apple is still selling Macbooks with Intel inside. That
         | cannot be just stupidity, right?
         | 
         | No, it just means the transition to ARM is not done. At WWDC
         | they said it'll take two years to convert the whole product
         | line [1]. We are only a few months into that. Judging by the
         | last couple years, the Apple HW ship turns slowly, but it does
         | turn.
         | 
         | Also, there's no need to be so harsh. When other people do
         | something you don't understand, it's bad to assume they're
         | stupid. They probably have reasons you don't know about.
         | 
         | [1]: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/06/this-is-apples-
         | roadm...
        
         | floatingatoll wrote:
         | The article author seems to assume that Apple will steadily
         | increase the performance of part or all of their entire product
         | line in 2021 with Apple Silicon. Since Apple has been doing
         | that with the iPhone for ten years, it's quite reasonable to
         | assume this will affect their laptop and desktop lines too.
         | 
         | The first Apple Silicon release is better than nearly
         | everything available from Intel. That same first release will
         | likely be obsolete by the end of 2021, as Apple advances with
         | M1X or M2. That annual obsolescence may well continue for the
         | next ten years, too.
         | 
         | So the used Apple laptop market is going to look a lot more
         | like the used iPhone market - and in the used iPhone market,
         | you get 15% of what you paid, not 85%, because there's an
         | endless supply of new phones forcing the used market down.
        
         | qbasic_forever wrote:
         | It's not really about the raw speed or single core perf
         | anymore. These M1 processors have huge caches and flat-out
         | workloads can really scream on them. Apple engineers took a
         | holistic approach to optimizing the processor for general
         | computing workloads, and it shows.
        
         | kleinsch wrote:
         | The only reason they're selling MacBooks with Intel is bc they
         | haven't updated the whole line yet. They did the entry level
         | models for MacBook, Air, and mini. They'll do the rest when
         | they roll out the M1X (higher end first party chip) later this
         | year to the rest of the line.
         | 
         | Look up the performance stats, for loads running flat out or
         | using GPU, M1 is insanely faster. People are replacing their
         | two year old $5K top of the line MacBooks with an entry level
         | M1 and seeing massive real world performance gains. That's the
         | point of this article - why would anyone pay $2-3K for a used
         | 15" MacBook Pro that retailed for $5K in 2018 when they can buy
         | an M1 that blows it out of the water brand new for half the
         | price?
         | 
         | There are still limiting factors (if you need ports, more RAM,
         | etc) since these are entry level models, but the rumors about
         | the next gen MBPs coming in H2 of this year sound like they'll
         | tackle those easily.
        
           | rubicon33 wrote:
           | Would you say it's worth waiting for the M1X if one hasn't
           | already picked up an M1?
        
             | jurmous wrote:
             | M1X will be a lot faster with multicore loads. So if you
             | are daily depending on heavy multi core payloads it will be
             | worth the wait.
        
       | dawnerd wrote:
       | Oddly M1 macs have also been having pretty deep price cuts
       | lately. I get the feeling sales have greatly slowed down past the
       | initial burst.
        
         | dangus wrote:
         | I think there are two dynamics at play: the weak economy for
         | much of the middle class and the jobless rate being higher than
         | normal, along with work from home and pandemic aspects of life
         | increasing demand for home electronics.
         | 
         | People want computers perhaps more than normal, but do they
         | have the money to spend?
         | 
         | I think this is why Apple was advertising Education pricing on
         | the M1 Macs the day they came out. They don't care that you
         | qualify, it's basically a "buy from Apple directly instead of a
         | third party retailer" discount.
         | 
         | This is all just my amateur theory - I think Apple wants to
         | keep volumes up and sell _something_ to meet demand.
        
           | Firehawke wrote:
           | Yeah, I think it's more that people can't justify what I'd
           | call luxury pricing for hardware right now. I'm not aware of
           | any significant failures in the M1 design to suggest that
           | Apple screwed up hard at least.
           | 
           | When things turn around, I'd expect Apple to pick back up
           | pretty well. I'm not an Apple owner nor a fan, but I
           | definitely have an interest in watching the evolution of
           | these since they're the first real rival to x86 in a long
           | time.
           | 
           | There's a real possibility I'll end up going to a future
           | Apple, Microsoft (since they're looking into doing their own
           | ARM chips now as well), or some other ARM architecture in the
           | next 10 years if Intel and AMD can't keep x86 ahead. It looks
           | like Intel already lost with almost no hope of getting back
           | into a competitive position, so AMD's what I'm watching
           | closest on that side.
           | 
           | Also, look, before anyone downvotes me for being Anti-
           | Intel(tm), I just want to say that I'm going to remain
           | skeptical until Intel can do 2-3 generations of good chips in
           | succession without dropping the ball hard. Zen has two or
           | three generations of good improvement showing up, and Intel
           | _might_ have ONE generation with the newest chips coming out
           | but that doesn 't mean they'll keep it up.
           | 
           | If Intel does that, I'll keep them in consideration. Until
           | that point.. well, I'm just going to remain skeptical and
           | cautious.
        
           | chrisseaton wrote:
           | The middle class who still have jobs currently have more
           | money than they know what to do with! Markets are soaring and
           | personal current accounts are full to bursting, according to
           | central banks, as nobody has anything to spend money on. This
           | gives me hope for a quick economic bounce-back. It's the
           | working class and people who have lost their jobs who are
           | seriously struggling. The middle class are fine.
        
       | rienko wrote:
       | At our company we have a bunch of Macbook pro 13" with butterfly
       | keyboards that nobody wants to use internally, that in combo with
       | the new M1s really made the resale value drop, it did leave us
       | with a bad taste in the mouth.
        
         | tonyedgecombe wrote:
         | Yes, I like to buy my machines 2nd hand but I'm not going to
         | touch anything with that keyboard.
        
       | blobbers wrote:
       | This guy claims swapping is efficient, yet I see other posts
       | saying they're going to blow out in under 2 years due to write
       | load on the 8GB versions of the M1 laptops
        
       | heax wrote:
       | It does not matter what you think how good the M1 is, what the
       | author states is the opinion of the potential buyer of a mac out
       | there. I do not see it as so much superior as he does, but the
       | prices will crater because most think it is.
        
         | ravi-delia wrote:
         | Even if the M1 isn't a complete upending of the Apple line, the
         | next generation is expected to be yet _another_ leap from the
         | M1. They probably won 't get another jump like that again, but
         | 2 is more than enough.
        
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       (page generated 2021-02-27 23:02 UTC)