[HN Gopher] The Evolution of Developer Salaries: Looking Back 20...
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       The Evolution of Developer Salaries: Looking Back 20 Years
        
       Author : fagnerbrack
       Score  : 83 points
       Date   : 2021-02-25 07:55 UTC (15 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (codesubmit.io)
 (TXT) w3m dump (codesubmit.io)
        
       | mfontani wrote:
       | Both charts purportedly show stats for 2001-2011.
       | 
       | Is it the case the first shows 2001-2011, and the second
       | 2011-2021?
        
         | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
         | > Both charts...
         | 
         | There are four charts. Are you referring to the just the top
         | pair labeled median 2001-2011 and mean 2001-2011 which are in
         | the "From 2001-2011" section? Those are 2001-2011.
         | 
         | If you want later ones you'll have to scroll down to the
         | section titled "From 2013-2019." There's a pair labeled median
         | 2013-2019 and mean 2013-2019. Those are the 2013-2019 ones.
        
           | mfontani wrote:
           | Ha! Missed the tiny "mean" vs "median" difference between the
           | first two. Thanks!
        
       | unnouinceput wrote:
       | Quote: "In the years to come, industry experts expect low-level
       | coding and programming jobs to become obsolete with the
       | development of new tools that remove the need to code completely.
       | Take for example the role of Web Developers when it comes to
       | building websites. With popular CMS tools like WordPress and
       | Squarespace, almost anyone can build a website for their
       | business, reducing the need for people who know "just a little
       | bit of front end web development". "
       | 
       | Yeah, not gonna happen. Low level code, if anything, is going to
       | become even more popular with the current explosion of IoT. You
       | have this 4th generation becoming in full swing (1st was
       | mainframes in 50's/60's, 2nd was PC in 70's/80', 3rd was
       | web/mobile in 90's to 10's, and now Arduino/Raspberry/MicroBIT
       | for IoT) and I swear is the same stuff under new hood. Plenty of
       | people want fully integrated stuff and blings around them, which
       | means in next decade IoT is going to be what smartphones started
       | from 2008 to 2015.
       | 
       | Second - Sure mom and pop can do basic stuff in Wordpress, but
       | once they want something unique guess what? PHP developer to the
       | rescue to adjust their Wordpress site. So no, if anything, it's
       | going the opposite direction, more code, more software. So the
       | <need for people who know "just a little bit of front end web
       | development"> is going to be shifted to mom and pop and that's
       | all...at best.
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | > So no, if anything, it's going the opposite direction, more
         | code, more software.
         | 
         | That's the paradox, the more we automate, the more work we have
         | to do. All because of scope creep.
        
         | sumtechguy wrote:
         | IoT is dead in the water right now because of the same reasons
         | smartphones did not take off until iPhone. The dataplans suck.
         | Steve Jobs insisted on unlimited data for a flat fee. If you go
         | look at the M2M offerings for most data providers you will see
         | they do not list prices. That is for a reason. I personally saw
         | many of the actual prices. The ranged from 'not bad' to 'you
         | got them to agree to _that_?! '
         | 
         | You can piggy back on customers networks to a point on 'home
         | automation'. Everyone is trying to be the next modbus/zigbee on
         | that one but charge a monthly fee for the privilege of using
         | their protocol, or even better their service. The integration
         | between services is kinda crap and the ecosystem is very shaky
         | with no clear winners.
         | 
         | Bespoke systems are doing 'ok' but again no clear winners yet.
         | Most seem to be setting themselves up to be bought out by some
         | bigger player instead of shipping good product.
         | 
         | What we found with IoT was it was not the software or hardware.
         | We had that 15+ years ago. The problem is integration and
         | maintenance and connectivity. The integration phase you can see
         | sales cycles of 2-3 years. Maintenance ongoing cost no one
         | really wants to pay for. Connectivity is at the mercy of
         | someone elses price plans.
        
           | Nasrudith wrote:
           | The data plan certainly doesn't help but the fact most IoT
           | devices actively put time and money into providing anti-
           | features like demanding an unnecessary connection for basic
           | functionality, an unpredictable sunset period of 'whenever we
           | go out of business, get bought up, or just feel like it',
           | needless privacy issues, and needless vulnerability to
           | hacking and viruses and expect people to pay more for it
           | including recurring charges? Using ubiquitous computing to
           | turn their devices into dumb terminals which must defer the
           | home server?
           | 
           | It is downright stupid runaway greed run amok while viewing
           | themselves as entitled to customers - they couldn't make
           | their contempt for their customers clearer if they had put
           | photos of themselves flipping the bird twice to the customers
           | on every box and giving making every product name a
           | combination of three to five randomly chosen swears and
           | insults.
           | 
           | If they actually started with an appliance and asked "what
           | features would a customer find useful" instead of "what can
           | we charge them for and put behind a pay-gate" then we would
           | have something worth considering. Washer/dryer unit which can
           | text or email you when your load is done and can be
           | programmed in sequence? Great. Smart locks for changing entry
           | codes remotely and phone communication with an app? It is
           | actually made for its niche.
           | 
           | Instead their strategy is like including a remote triggered
           | bomb in every product and then wondering why people rarely
           | buy their stuff.
        
             | ryandrake wrote:
             | Most IoT devices do not need Internet for the home
             | automation features that actually provide value to users.
             | They need a LAN connection at most. They _say_ they need
             | Internet but it 's typically just used for exfiltrating
             | user's personal data and analytics, and as you say for
             | implementing needless payment gates and remote-triggered
             | bombs.
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | I think the issue is that IoT is not really broadly useful
           | for normal people.
           | 
           | IoT devices have been a big thing in the
           | manufacturing/industrial sector for a while now, because
           | collecting telemetry on equipment is extremely valuable. The
           | growth in ML has been a huge value-add in the sector.
           | 
           | I can't really see the value in IoT devices for the consumer
           | market. There are niche applications which may appeal to a
           | small group, for example security systems or climate control.
           | But, for the most part, there's really no obvious "killer
           | app" for consumer IoT devices. The few ideas with potential
           | are already getting integrated into the iOS ecosystem (health
           | monitors).
        
             | theflyinghorse wrote:
             | Agreed. I'm working on an IoT platform and there is a lot
             | of interest from big industrial players (energy sector,
             | manufacturing, fleet managers of all sorts). IoT can help
             | companies save money either through analytics or reduced
             | need for labour, but I don't see too much value added to
             | regular people.
        
         | burnthrow wrote:
         | CMS replaced the guy who turned your .doc into HTML (this used
         | to be a job). Many of these people became LAMP CMF specialists.
         | That transition was at least a decade ago. Sysadmin roles have
         | been under the most pressure since.
        
         | mritchie712 wrote:
         | I think "low level" here means "low skill level", not the
         | programming definition [0]
         | 
         | 0 - low-level programming language is a programming language
         | that provides little or no abstraction from a computer's
         | instruction set architecture
        
           | osigurdson wrote:
           | I would like to see some concrete examples of what is meant
           | by low skill level "programmer" work. In my opinion,
           | programmer, developer and engineer mean the same thing. Is
           | there a market for "Hello, world" that I am not aware of?
        
             | sceadu wrote:
             | Simple CRUD websites maybe, adding simple things to e.g.
             | wordpress deployments.
        
         | spartan831 wrote:
         | This is good to hear, and I've felt that a lot of people are
         | underestimating the IoT explosion that is to come. The
         | automotive industry is just finally on the cusp of it. Buy a
         | new high end appliance, and you can probably connect it to a
         | network. Everyone loves "smart home" accessories. I think
         | demand is going to sky rocket.
        
       | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
       | So from $62890 to $92610 in 18 years.
       | 
       | That is only a 4% increase per year.
       | 
       | I am surprised it is so little. I recently looked up some old
       | receipts I paid in restaurants and cafes from 11 years ago. And
       | then looked up the same items in the same cafes and restaurants
       | now. The prices roughly doubled. So these increased by about 6%
       | per year.
       | 
       | If developer salaries increased slower than inflation, why is it
       | still so hard to find good freelance developers? Could the
       | explanation be that the market has been flooded with people who
       | call themselfes developers but hardly grasp what is going on
       | under the hood? And just glue external code together until it
       | kinda works?
        
         | Loic wrote:
         | For another reference point, the "cost of life index"[0] in
         | Germany went from 79,9 (in 2000) to 105,8 (in 2020), a 32%
         | increase.
         | 
         | DESTATIS provide all the details of the calculations of this
         | index and also how it changes over the years to adapt to the
         | real cost of life (like everybody having a smartphone now but
         | not in 1991).
         | 
         | [0]: https://www-
         | genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=pre...
        
         | enriquto wrote:
         | > hardly grasp what is going on under the hood? And just glue
         | external code together until it kinda works?
         | 
         | Wait, isn't this what all of us do? Do some folks really
         | understand things?
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | I try to, but I guess it depends what you mean by "really
           | understand" -- I'm happy so long as I know about the product
           | logic, but @pjc50 has said of themselves something along the
           | lines of "full stack at every level from the transistor to
           | the UI" or similar (I can't find a link to the actual
           | comment, they post too much for that).
        
             | jlokier wrote:
             | Possibly this one.
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14191777
        
           | sanxiyn wrote:
           | Yes, I do.
        
           | gambiting wrote:
           | I mean, I won't pretend I understand everything I do, but
           | working in video games there's frequently no "external code"
           | you can draw from, not even a Stack Overflow where you can
           | ask questions. Over a year ago we got few prototype PS5
           | devkits dropped on our desks with some basic documentation
           | available and were told to make it work - that's not
           | something where you can ask for any help anywhere, because
           | it's all NDA'ed and Sony engineers are extremely busy, so you
           | just....have to figure stuff out by yourself.
        
         | ido wrote:
         | Restaurant prices are not the only mark for inflation. Has
         | inflation in the past 18 years been more than 4% per year on
         | average?
        
           | thaumasiotes wrote:
           | It doesn't look impressive against the CPI.
           | 
           | According to the BLS calculator, $62,890 in 2003 is worth
           | $90,538.76 in 2021.
           | 
           | So after adjusting for inflation, salaries have risen by all
           | of 2%?
        
             | PenguinCoder wrote:
             | That's pretty depressing.
        
           | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
           | Depends on what you look at. Gold increased about 9% per
           | year. The Nasdaq increased about 11% per year.
        
             | ploika wrote:
             | Neither of those represent inflation in consumer prices
             | particularly well.
             | 
             | The price of a new washing machine (amortised maybe, I
             | don't know), a litre of milk, a pair of jeans, a monthly
             | phone/broadband bill or a tank of petrol would be more
             | useful in tracking inflation.
             | 
             | Gold, copper, pork bellies, shipping, storage costs etc
             | would be tracked in something like the Purchasing Managers
             | Index.
             | 
             | Share prices are pretty much irrelevant since buying shares
             | isn't really consumption.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | > The price of a new washing machine (amortised maybe, I
               | don't know), a litre of milk, a pair of jeans, a monthly
               | phone/broadband bill or a tank of petrol would be more
               | useful in tracking inflation.
               | 
               | That's pocket change compared to the change in price for
               | real estate, healthcare, education, childcare, taxes, and
               | savings (assets for retirement and emergencies).
               | 
               | At least for where I want to live. If I made a budget 15
               | years ago of my purchases in the next 15 years, the total
               | price for the total of those purchases increased at far
               | more than US government CPI figures. I get more bang for
               | buck for my TV, but that's offset by the extra few
               | hundred thousand dollars for land, healthcare, etc.
        
               | ploika wrote:
               | Of course. Depending on where you live, most of what you
               | mentioned is probably included in the CPI calculation.
               | Rent, health insurance, education and childcare are all
               | included in Ireland's CPI in some form, for example.
               | 
               | I was trying to differentiate between increases in
               | consumer prices (like the cost of a watch or running a
               | car) and increases in cost/value of other stuff (like
               | gold bullion or Tesla shares or whatever).
        
             | TheCoelacanth wrote:
             | When I start eating gold and living in a Nasdaq, then that
             | might matter as a measure of inflation.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | This inflation calculator says the USA has had cumulative
         | inflation of only 20%, not 100%, in the last 11 years; of 42%
         | in the last 18 years; and of 48% in the last 20 years:
         | https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
         | 
         | I suspect your restaurant and cafe receipts are not
         | representative of general price changes.
        
           | csomar wrote:
           | The CPI that the government tracks is as good as their
           | unemployment rate. It's indicative (it should raise if
           | inflation raises) but has nothing to do with reality. These
           | numbers were twisted so that they do not look very bad. If
           | you read that unemployment is at 30%, you'll be protesting.
           | 
           | The reality is, life got a lot better in the last decade. If
           | you are measuring by that, prices are actually down (or did
           | not increase that much). Today's iPhone would have been
           | prohibitively expensive (if possible) and many houses did not
           | have the amenities they have today (washing machine, cable,
           | tech gadgets, etc...).
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | frankfrankfrank wrote:
           | This is unfortunately another one of those cases where the
           | "government" + sycophantic institutions are essentially and
           | deliberately fudging the numbers to make people believe
           | something other than what is really happening, in essence,
           | essentially also committing fraud. In the case of inflation,
           | one way the trick works is that the basket of goods and
           | services that are used to calculate the inflation are not at
           | all reflective of the lived experience of regular people, let
           | alone of most people.
           | 
           | It's not really all that different than the fraudulent way in
           | which the intentionally deceptive unemployment rate is
           | calculated that is pushed by all the governments' sycophants.
           | In the USA that process drops people from the calculation by
           | simply assuming disinterest in employment if one has been
           | unemployed for a certain time (yes, it's intentionally
           | deceptive and manipulative, largely to defraud and cheat the
           | markets and countries that are honest about their
           | unemployment rates).
           | 
           | ShadowStats has been tracking the real inflation rate for a
           | few decades now since a major change was made to fudge the
           | number. It should be pretty eye opening for some people.
           | 
           | http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
           | 
           | On a side note; it strikes me as a rather perplexing
           | challenge that people seem to have a hard time adjusting
           | their thinking to control for deceptive and manipulative
           | practices, e.g., everyone who pays attention knows very well
           | that the U.S. governments inflation numbers are literal
           | fraud, yet they are the very number that drives so many
           | aspects of everything. It's like that meme scene in Idiocracy
           | ... "but fraudulent inflation rates are what the market
           | craves" ... "yes, but they're causing illusion and deception
           | to spread throughout the system that will cause collapse and
           | ruin" ... * blank stare * "but fraudulent inflation rates is
           | what the market craves"
        
             | a_c_s wrote:
             | I take issue with this narrative of an "intentionally
             | deceptive unemployment rate": the Bureau of Labor
             | Statistics publishes six different figured depending on who
             | you want to count as 'unemployed':
             | https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
        
             | em500 wrote:
             | Shadowstats is a crank website, and "eye opening" in the
             | same way as anti-vaxers and 5G radiation truther websites
             | are "eye opening" to a significant number of people without
             | much expertise in the field.
             | 
             | Shadowstats are not "tracking the real inflation for a few
             | decades", they're just adding about 3 to 4 %-points to the
             | BLS inflation and peddling those numbers as a paid
             | subscription. If you want to want to know the *shocking
             | truth about the Real Inflation* accoding to shadowstats,
             | save yourself the money and brain damage of reading
             | conspiracy sites: just download the official inflation from
             | BLS or FRED and add 3-4%-point every month.
             | 
             | The implication of these shadowstats "true inflation
             | numbers" is that the US economy has been in constant
             | depression since the 1980s or so. I'll leave the
             | credibility of that up to the reader.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > In the USA that process drops people from the calculation
             | by simply assuming disinterest in employment if one has
             | been unemployed for a certain time
             | 
             | No, it doesn't. You are dropped from unemployment
             | _benefits_ after a certain time, but from the headline
             | unemployment _rate_ [0] only when you stop actively
             | searching for work.
             | 
             | [0] and even then, those "discouraged workers" remain in
             | other unemployment measures published by BLS. (U-4 through
             | U-6, just not the headline U-3 rate, or the even smaller
             | U-1 and U-2 rates.)
        
             | smnrchrds wrote:
             | I am reading the graphs incorrectly or does ShadowStats
             | claim inflation rate has been 10% per year for the past 24
             | years? That would mean prices are 1.1^20=10 times higher
             | now that they were in 1996.
        
             | thebigspacefuck wrote:
             | Why don't more people talk about this? The CPI is clearly
             | broken. I've seen things stay the same price but get
             | smaller in shrinkflation. Housing/rent prices go up 20% in
             | a year but CPI barely budges. Do they just find 20% smaller
             | houses every year? Just fixing the index would have a huge
             | impact
        
               | ahelwer wrote:
               | Housing (and healthcare and education) will never be
               | included in US inflation metrics because the inflation of
               | those cost categories is a government priority. In
               | particular the US gov wants homeowners to experience a
               | consistent annual return on their investment, aka it
               | wants housing to inflate. The CPI hides these issues and
               | enables them to lie by omission, why would they change
               | it?
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | You're attitude doesn't make sense when put into the
               | context that housing inflation, as a whole, tracks
               | inflation. It's only pockets of the country which
               | experience high rates of housing inflation.
               | 
               | Even if you did include it, the numbers wouldn't change.
               | For every Seattle or Denver experiencing heavy growth in
               | the housing markets, there's a dozen Lafayettes
               | experiencing slow/no growth.
        
               | ahelwer wrote:
               | Okay, so weight the costs by how many people experience
               | them then. Oh! More people live in those big cities? Huh.
               | And those cities are the only places with jobs that have
               | experienced decent wage growth? Man.
        
               | jonfw wrote:
               | > Do they just find 20% smaller houses every year? Just
               | fixing the index would have a huge impact
               | 
               | The opposite, people are in significantly larger and
               | better equipped houses than they used to be.
               | 
               | I also think 20% is pretty steep outside of the most
               | desirable areas in the US, which are akin to complaining
               | about the pricing becoming unreasonable in your country
               | club. The top end of the market shouldn't be used to
               | track inflation, we should use the median.
        
               | adjkant wrote:
               | I've found that most people in the economics space know
               | how broken the CPI is, so it's boring. That's why no one
               | talks about it. The reality is the CPI doesn't affect as
               | much as people think, so there's little pressure to force
               | its needed changes. And if you do ask people to change
               | it, the factions that split in terms of what changes are
               | desired leaves the "keep it the same" camp being the
               | largest.
               | 
               | At a personal level, the CPI really isn't set up for
               | cities. It is simply not considered in the CPI that
               | housing would be such a big cost that would outweigh
               | anything else. The "why" seems to be speculated by
               | another poster, though I can't speak to that as I'm not
               | deep enough into economics.
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | Like most things, there are trade-offs involved.
               | 
               | Including X & Y may greatly skew the results higher or
               | lower, but if the percentage of people purchasing X & Y
               | are low, then they don't have much impact.
               | 
               | The CPI methodology isn't great, but it also isn't bad.
               | Removing volatile sectors makes sense when trying to
               | identify trends, but it doesn't make sense when those
               | volatile sectors are a large component of consumer spend.
               | 
               | Since most of the data used by the CPI calculator is
               | publicly available, it is possible for people to
               | construct their own CPI metric and track it over time.
               | This is helpful if you want to get an accurate indicator
               | of the inflation you've experienced over time, or if
               | you're wanting to push the narrative of higher/lower
               | inflation over a period of time.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | > The CPI methodology isn't great, but it also isn't bad.
               | 
               | It's bad for any discussion involving wages since your
               | earnings need to go up by more than CPI to tread water,
               | in popular areas.
        
               | Rebelgecko wrote:
               | Wouldn't you expect roughly 50% of areas (population
               | weighted I guess) to be "above average"?
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Yes, but with widening income/wealth gaps, I would expect
               | the popular areas to have a larger deviation from the
               | mean.
        
               | albertop wrote:
               | The greater (lower) the degree of government involvement
               | in the provision of a good or service the greater (lower)
               | the price increases (decreases) over time, e.g., hospital
               | and medical costs, college tuition, childcare with both
               | large degrees of government funding/regulation and large
               | price increases vs. software, electronics, toys, cars and
               | clothing with both relatively less government
               | funding/regulation and falling prices.
               | https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-
               | century-5...
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | potatoman22 wrote:
             | I don't get why I should believe this one guy's numbers
             | versus an experienced governments' bureau's calculations.
             | Because it's all a conspiracy?
        
               | solosoyokaze wrote:
               | Anyone who was alive 20 years ago will tell you it's not
               | a conspiracy. How much does health insurance cost now vs
               | 20 years ago? Rent? A university degree? We can see the
               | massive inflation with our own two eyes (and feel it in
               | our wallets).
        
               | UncleMeat wrote:
               | > How much does health insurance cost now vs 20 years
               | ago? Rent? A university degree? We can see the massive
               | inflation with our own two eyes (and feel it in our
               | wallets).
               | 
               | People mention exactly these three things every single
               | time they say "actually inflation is super super high".
               | The fact that nothing else ever comes up is evidence that
               | the bulk of things have not inflated at rates outpacing
               | the government documentation.
               | 
               | These three things are getting very expensive very fast.
               | That's bad. Policies can be put into place to limit this.
               | This is not evidence that the government is full of liars
               | and really inflation is at 20%.
        
               | jjav wrote:
               | Compared to ten years ago:
               | 
               | My electric bill is 10x. My water bill is 6x-8x. I live
               | in the same house and have the same consumption then and
               | now.
               | 
               | My supermarket costs are 5x-7x.
               | 
               | So yes, real inflation has been pretty scary the last 10
               | years. On a silicon valley techie salary I can absorb
               | these costs but it's still a huge increase.
               | 
               | Talking with some friends the other day about this topic,
               | I projected the numbers for the next ten years if things
               | were to continue on this path and the result would be
               | that in ten years I won't be able to pay utilities + food
               | on my salary. So presumably something will change or
               | break, because that's not sustainable.
        
               | solosoyokaze wrote:
               | Other things don't come up because these three are
               | _major_ expenses for most people, percentage-wise
               | dwarfing the rest of their spending. I don 't care that
               | the price of steak is only up $5 /lb when I have to pay
               | $3k more a month due to housing, insurance and education
               | costs.
        
               | em500 wrote:
               | You shouldn't. Shadowstats is a crank website, praying on
               | people are already convinced that everything is more
               | expensive than according to official numbers. They're the
               | economics equivalent of homeopathy, anti-vaxers, 5G
               | radiation truthers and sellers of homebew crypto-algos.
               | I.e., they have a nice business and a good susceptible
               | audience, but they're not providing you the Secret
               | Information that the Authorities don't want you to know.
        
               | jjav wrote:
               | I don't know anything about Shadowstats, no opinion on
               | that.
               | 
               | But the fact that prices have risen far faster than the
               | official inflation numbers suggest is a trivially
               | confirmable fact. Just look at what you paid for things
               | years ago and now, compute percentage increase.
        
               | tryonenow wrote:
               | >experienced governments' bureau's calculations
               | 
               | Why do you trust an "experienced government bureau" which
               | has institutional incentive to cook numbers? At the very
               | least it's an alternative perspective to be evaluated.
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | They really aren't; I don't have concrete numbers, but most
           | people agree that prices for restaurants and cafes have
           | doubled since they introduced the Euro here. Even though
           | officially it was illegal to do price hikes, many companies
           | took the opportunity to do so, because while the new currency
           | was worth 2x what the old one was, people still thought in
           | the old currency's numbers. So 1.50 for a coffee or a beer
           | stayed 1.50, after a little while people stopped trying to
           | convert the value and just accepted the new normal.
        
             | smnrchrds wrote:
             | I find that very difficult to believe. It flies in the face
             | of everything I have been told about how the markets
             | behave. If cafes double their prices and people's salaries
             | don't double, people won't just get used to the new prices,
             | they stop going to cafes. Such a price increase would
             | capture the interest of economists and academics. I am sure
             | papers and books will be written on it, as well as
             | capturing the attention of the general public and the
             | journalists and having lots of news segments and articles
             | written about it. Could you please try to find some of
             | these and share them with me. I do not know which country
             | we are talking about and unless it is Ireland, I don't
             | speak the language to search the internet on my own.
        
           | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
           | I suspect that website is not representative of general price
           | changes. Maybe it looks at things that got easier to produce
           | so they got cheaper via efficiency. They just don't sell
           | cheaper because of inflation.
        
             | rory wrote:
             | Things getting cheaper to produce via efficiency is (a
             | negative) part of inflation. It's not a separate
             | phenomenon.
        
             | Mauricebranagh wrote:
             | That's the elephant in the room with inflation measures
             | (CPI CPIH RPI) the selection of the basket of goods can
             | have a massive effect on the actual recorded rate - which
             | may not be what the average person on the ground
             | experiences.
             | 
             | Governments have incentives to use this to flatter the
             | results or change inflation measures eg the UK and its
             | switch to CPI from RPI for a lot of things.
        
               | tomatocracy wrote:
               | In addition there's another complication - the BLS also
               | makes (downward) adjustments for improvements in product
               | quality over time to reflect that they have more value.
        
               | zelos wrote:
               | Presumably there's a big difference in the level of
               | inflation experienced based on income level as well:
               | someone just scraping by is going to be much more exposed
               | to food and rent inflation than a developer on $100k.
        
               | foolmeonce wrote:
               | True, but the chosen measure is going to be the lowest
               | inflation imaginable since it relates strongly the global
               | price of goods instead of services cost.
               | 
               | Poor people actually can't escape service costs and pay
               | for a lot more (seemingly) mandatory service costs that
               | go away when you have enough money to stay away from
               | them. I.e. the costs of not having a fridge at all vs
               | being able to bulk shop at a warehouse are all massively
               | higher.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | adamc wrote:
       | The article needs to compare against salaries in general to
       | distinguish changes in developer salaries from other trends.
        
       | swyx wrote:
       | this is subject to the same issues all salary surveys have - they
       | dont take into account stock based comp, which is responsible
       | both for the huge amount of variance in comp by years of
       | experience and for the increase in total comp over time. the
       | conclusions you can draw from this are really not that meaningful
       | in total.
        
         | fatnoah wrote:
         | That is definitely a big miss. Looking only at cash, my rate of
         | compensation increase was about 7.5% per year (in reality, it
         | was typically a couple years at 1-2% with some big jumps). When
         | stock is factored into the equation, the average jumps to about
         | 12.5%!
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | parentheses wrote:
       | I feel that these numbers hide a lot:
       | 
       | (1) There is a small percentage that are being paid what I
       | consider to be a fair income. They are being paid in very
       | competitive markets. They are getting valued in a HCOL market
       | where demand for engineering talent is higher.
       | 
       | (2) There is a large percentage that are being paid something
       | like a "developer status quo". A salary that:
       | 
       | - doesn't acknowledge that software developers are _capable_ of
       | generating inordinately large amounts of value (and considered in
       | aggregate, mostly do)
       | 
       | - treats all work done by college-educated individual
       | contributors as of roughly equivalent value
       | 
       | - cannot be too high because "we can't pay you 2x what
       | $other_person_of_value makes"
       | 
       | - cannot be too high because "we can't pay you more than what
       | $your_manager makes"
       | 
       | (3) Developer skill levels vary greatly. This means that the
       | average developer is just that: average. Average developers
       | simply do not generate the kind of value that top-end developers
       | do.
        
       | durnygbur wrote:
       | As a dev based in EU, in any year I was at around 50% of the
       | expected American level. The healthcare and social systems are so
       | underfunded and overloaded in most of the EU countries that in
       | case of any health or life problems I expect to receive
       | "American-style" support (ie. ending up on the street, with bills
       | and debt collection hounding me). Why even bother being employed?
        
         | aweb wrote:
         | I'm sorry but you're exaggerating quite a lot. Were are you
         | based? In France this is definitely not the case. Public care
         | works and is efficient enough.
        
           | finikytou wrote:
           | I wouldn't say france works and is efficient enough. You can
           | see the covid crisis as a revelatory of what doctors and
           | hospital are going trough in france. underfunded, directed by
           | people from business schools looking at profitability (less
           | beds, merging services between hospitals, promoting their
           | buddies/network, hiring people to recreate company-like
           | hierarchy where you undermine anyone that is not in your
           | team) the goal of the current government is to cut everything
           | that they can and obviously they would love to have less
           | public hospitals.
           | 
           | Not even talking about the building renovations that are near
           | impossible, the medical devices that will never be next-gen
           | and the idea of counting beds rather than patients.
           | 
           | Yes it works. it is not efficient. And it is putting immense
           | pressure on doctors that are underpaid, underappreciated by
           | management.
           | 
           | I can see where it is going and I think we will be very sad.
           | They want all the bad sides of the american model + the bad
           | sides of the french model. None of the good ones. And then on
           | their business model and powerpoint the picture will look
           | amazing. Just like any BS company tweaking their financials
           | to look great.
        
           | durnygbur wrote:
           | Poland.
        
         | ornornor wrote:
         | I do t think you've ever experienced the brutal reality of
         | living in the US: barely any employment insurance compared to
         | the EU, two weeks notice before you lose your job only, just an
         | ambulance ride and seeing an MD in the ER is a few thousand
         | dollars before they even start treating you, getting cancer
         | also means hundreds of thousands of dollars in medical bills
         | (good luck without insurance), 0 days a year vacation
         | prescribed by law, to only pick a few. Oh and free or nearly
         | free education all the way to a masters degree at least. Not to
         | mention other public services like mass transit. Or life
         | expectancy. You're better off in Europe.
        
           | np- wrote:
           | Pretty much none of this comment is true besides maybe the
           | mass transit thing, which again depends where you live, if
           | you're a dev in the US (as the OP you responded to said is
           | their profession). This almost strikes me as a Reddit-
           | comment-style parody, so maybe I was whooshed.
        
           | KDJohnBrown wrote:
           | Two weeks notice? Only if the company cares about reputation,
           | there's zero legal requirement for notice or severance.
           | 
           | It is also pitifully easy to be denied unemployment. 8 years
           | ago I was laid off from a failing startup with the option of
           | 1 week's severance or 2 weeks if we signed non-disparage /
           | non-entice.
           | 
           | Everyone who choose 1 week was "fired for cause" and had
           | their unemployment contested. Mine was contested after 4
           | months and I was forced to pay it back with a 50% "fraud"
           | fee.
           | 
           | In America money talks and bullshit walks.
           | 
           | The irony is that this is why we hop startups every year or
           | two. The only reliable way to get a significant income
           | increase is to level up on popular new technologies at
           | employer A and get employernB ton pay more.
        
         | ido wrote:
         | I don't know where in the EU you are but I live in Germany and
         | had to have cancer treatment a few years ago & got outstanding
         | care for no cost. Also having two children the amount of
         | support we (and everyone who has kids) get from the state here
         | is excellent.
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | I live in the Netherlands and I pay nearly 150 / month in
           | health insurance, my employer pays another heap, and on top
           | of that I have a mandatory minimal deductible, medication
           | that isn't on a list gets billed extra, and a lot of things
           | are not covered by default (like glasses, physical therapy)
           | or have a max coverage (like dental work).
        
             | balfirevic wrote:
             | > I pay nearly 150 / month in health insurance, my employer
             | pays another heap
             | 
             | Not to digress too much, but it's worth pointing out that
             | it is you who is paying for both parts, even if only half
             | of it gets listed on your salary slip.
        
               | jbn wrote:
               | Yes! this cannot be highlighted enough. It is scandalous
               | that this is not listed on salary slips, this is an
               | invisible tax and it makes people think insurance and
               | health care have little cost.
        
               | Taylor_OD wrote:
               | Yup. My first time being in a leadership position I
               | pushed to get better health insurance and to have my
               | company pay for more of it. The CEO said something to the
               | effect of, "This will be a 2% raise for our employees"
               | which was true but not how I or probably any of the
               | employees would have looked at it.
        
               | rory wrote:
               | The same thing is done with Social Security and Medicare
               | in the US. I hate it when governments try to obfuscate
               | things like this.
        
               | jbn wrote:
               | in the US, the employer also pays a share of the
               | employment tax (split in 2 between employer and employee)
               | and doesn't always show you the true cost of benefits...
               | all of these should appear and employee should be able
               | negotiate the complete package (wishful thinking...).
               | 
               | I'm sure many countries do the same. See
               | https://entreprise.pole-emploi.fr/cout-salarie/ for the
               | true costs in France...
        
               | eeZah7Ux wrote:
               | No, it's wrong: the employer is paying. The same goes for
               | personal VS corporate taxes.
               | 
               | They apply financial pressures on different spots.
               | Unsurprisingly, they have different effects on increasing
               | o decreasing inequality.
        
               | balfirevic wrote:
               | No matter where you decide to draw the line that
               | delineates which part of health insurance is paid by you
               | vs. by employer - the amount of money that employer
               | parted with, the amount of money in your pocket and the
               | amount of money in healthcare budget remain the same.
        
               | durnygbur wrote:
               | There are two "sliders" - net salary, gross salary, then
               | the total cost of the salary to the employer on top of
               | the gross salary. One starting a job negotiates the gross
               | salary. In EU positioning of these two "sliders" varies
               | widely from country to country and one could rarely have
               | mistaken impression that the contributions and deductions
               | are low.
        
               | eeZah7Ux wrote:
               | ...but various balances of power change greatly.
        
             | durnygbur wrote:
             | > nearly 150 / month in health insurance, my employer pays
             | another heap
             | 
             | This contribution is in line with public health insurance
             | in Poland, which in practice doesn't cover any services and
             | is completely disfunctional. German one which actually
             | delivers is twice as much.
        
             | em500 wrote:
             | The total spending on health care in the Netherlands in
             | 2019 was EUR510 per person per month[1]. That need to be
             | paid in somehow.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2020/24/zorguitgaven-
             | stegen-...
        
             | ido wrote:
             | I pay a lot more than you, but I'm ok with it cause it's a
             | % of my wage and it means people much poorer than me get
             | free/cheap healthcare. I'm not familiar with what is
             | covered in the Netherland but here the normal public
             | insurance really does cover a lot.
        
               | consp wrote:
               | Not just poor people. Kids are insured by the ZVW premie
               | which the employers pay for everyone. They are subscribed
               | on one of the parents insurance but for the basic
               | insurance this is free. Additional insurance can cost
               | money for kids.
        
               | ido wrote:
               | That's true! And when my wife was home when they were
               | babies all 4 of us were insured on my contribution alone.
        
             | jjav wrote:
             | I can't tell if you're bragging or complaining.
             | 
             | But compare to the US: I pay over $2200/month in health
             | insurance (and company pays more on top of that). And of
             | course there's a lot of stuff the insurance won't cover so
             | it's typically an additional 4K-8K out of pocket on an
             | average year.
        
           | durnygbur wrote:
           | This will last at most only 5-10 years more [1]. Poland,
           | Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, Spain and Greece are brain-drained
           | to the bone already. There is noone to come over.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2020/
        
             | luch wrote:
             | Holy shit, I knew from anecdotal evidences that young
             | people from Spain and Italy were "fleeing" their country
             | but the demographics are frankly scary !
             | 
             | I don't know how what the retirement scheme is implemented
             | over there, but if it is generational (young gens pays for
             | older gens) they willy have a BIG problem in 15/20 years
             | ...
        
               | durnygbur wrote:
               | The population pyramids of Germany, Spain, Italy are
               | interestingly similar while the economies of the latter
               | two are in deep problems. Retirement age in Germany is
               | 67, wait for it. Putting aside the tabloid hysteria I
               | dare to presume that this was one of the main reasons of
               | Brexit. The entire Europe will hiccup.
        
             | ido wrote:
             | I've worked at tech companies since we moved here in 2013
             | and at least for developers most of the "imported talent"
             | were from non-EU former Soviet countries (Russia, Ukraine,
             | etc), India or Latin America.
        
             | eeZah7Ux wrote:
             | This is huge exaggeration and generalization. Some parts of
             | EU are doing very well economically and have very quality
             | of life. Cherry-picking specific countries does not
             | represent the totality.
        
             | iamlucaswolf wrote:
             | This might be a fair assumption from a birth statistics
             | viewpoint, but completely misses immigration.
             | 
             | I met a lot of brilliant people from all over the world
             | during my undergrad at TU Munich; many of them stayed.
             | Google, Apple, Microsoft have expanded rather aggressively
             | over the past years, and the startup scene is growing.
             | Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt seem to follow suit.
             | 
             | Granted, it's much less likely (and also less politically
             | incentivized) to become a "millionaire employee", but I
             | guess ultimately, the correlation between wealth and
             | wellbeing is simply weaker in (northern) European
             | economies? As long as immigration policies don't change
             | (and why would they? the current model aligns well with
             | lobby incentives), I don't see much reason for this to
             | change.
             | 
             | Also, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Spain, and Greece have a
             | different political and economic history than Germany,
             | France, Denmark, Sweden, etc.
        
         | msh wrote:
         | I think you are generalizing way too much. While there are
         | underfunded healtcare systems in the EU I dont think its
         | realistic to say in most.
        
         | gambiting wrote:
         | Where the hell do you live in the EU. I had to go to the
         | hospital several times in the last 2 years and the level of
         | care I received in public hospitals(for absolutely free) was
         | great, wouldn't say a bad word for it. My father has been
         | treated for cancer for over 8 years, medicines, operations,
         | hospital stays - all provided without any delay.
         | 
         | I'm sorry if you have been wronged by public healthcare at some
         | point, but you're just talking nonsense for the sake of it I
         | feel.
        
           | durnygbur wrote:
           | The experience is nothing like this in Poland. One still pays
           | the contributions.
        
             | gambiting wrote:
             | I am talking of Poland, I'm Polish myself. My father has
             | been treated at oncological hospitals in few different
             | places and the experience has been very good.
        
               | durnygbur wrote:
               | We must be living in two different Polands. Me and many
               | acquaintances of mine don't even have GP doctor assigned
               | from public health insurance, that's how hopeless is
               | dealing with them. Nowadays the waiting times are as
               | hopeless as always plus there are exclusively phone
               | consultations. The doctor calls whenever they please and
               | the appointment is void if noone answers.
               | 
               | Perhaps your father is a politician, or high ranking
               | person in public administration or public services? I
               | cannot imagine how otherwise one could be satisfied from
               | the healthcare services.
        
               | gambiting wrote:
               | >>Perhaps your father is a politician, or high ranking
               | person in public administration or public services?
               | 
               | Lol, what? I mean, I guess you're trying to imply he got
               | some special treatment, but I assure you he didn't, and
               | neither did I when I needed help. He was a truck driver
               | and then ran a car workshop, then when he got cancer he
               | was under constant care of the oncological hospital in
               | Warsaw. Not only his level of care was very good, the
               | drugs he was getting from NFZ for free are incredibly
               | expensive(look up the cost of Glivec treatment), he was
               | even getting reimbursed for travel to the hospital every
               | time he needed to go - that's all standard NFZ procedure,
               | no VIP treatment.
               | 
               | I mean, perhaps you were just unlucky? I have no other
               | explanation.
        
               | jlokier wrote:
               | If it's anything like the UK, the hospital experience,
               | and life expectancy, will vary a lot between regions.
        
       | z92 wrote:
       | His conclusion :
       | 
       | > In the years to come, industry experts expect low-level coding
       | and programming jobs to become obsolete with the development of
       | new tools that remove the need to code completely.
       | 
       | Me wondering how much of it shall we see.
        
         | RegBarclay wrote:
         | As the developer tooling improves and parts of my job get
         | easier, I sometimes think I may be out of a job someday. But
         | then I talk to some users or other non-devs about technical
         | issues and realize I will always have a job.
        
           | after_care wrote:
           | The delta in technical expertise between the average dev and
           | the average user is so large that there will always be
           | economically viable ways for the dev to spend their time.
        
         | rory wrote:
         | The thing is, high-level languages like Python are already a
         | really efficient way to communicate requirements to a computer,
         | and we've already seen a massive shift from low-level languages
         | to high-level languages in applications that don't need low-
         | level control.
         | 
         | Developer tools and user interface components will likely
         | continue to get easier to work with, but chunks of
         | functionality that we compose with arbitrary code in between
         | will always be a better model than a "no-code" monolith we
         | configure.
        
           | Nasrudith wrote:
           | Personally I see lawyers as "proof" that taking the highest
           | level won't be sufficient to do away with devs. That and many
           | of the non-technical specifications emphasize that there must
           | always be someone to specify the details and make sure they
           | are consistent and handle the nasty corner cases.
        
           | TheCoelacanth wrote:
           | Yes, I think the doom-and-gloom predictions are dramatically
           | over-hyped.
           | 
           | I'm pretty sure that software development has had by far the
           | most effort put into automating it of any job that has ever
           | existed, simply because every person capable of doing the job
           | has the same skills necessary to automate it.
           | 
           | That has done nothing to decrease salaries for developers. If
           | anything, it has raised them, simply because developers can
           | now produce more useful things in less time and at lower
           | overall cost.
        
         | danjac wrote:
         | Without context, I could guess that quote could have been
         | written at any time in the past couple decades. It's the
         | "nuclear fusion" of our industry: one day someone will make it
         | happen, but not as soon as you think.
        
           | durnygbur wrote:
           | It's like instant on demand video and voice calls. Science
           | ficiton had been dreaming of it since the end of 19th
           | century. Then suddenly... Skype. It will happen in the most
           | obscure place.
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | > Me wondering how much of it shall we see.
         | 
         | Have you heard of RPA? It's a low-code/no-code way to automate
         | mouse and keyboard actions on top of desktop and web
         | applications.
        
         | arcturus17 wrote:
         | It's been discussed ad nauseam here, but companies love "no-
         | code" tools until they find their limitations (which is often
         | sooner rather than later) and then they desperately get out
         | their wads of cash to have the problems they caused sorted.
         | 
         | This creates an entire ecosystem of "low-code-real-developers"
         | who have the skill, commercial foresight (and possibly
         | patience) of working inside the guts of low-code tools, doing
         | Java, JS or what-have-you, but inside an ugly, sparsely-
         | documented propietary API instead of an open-source framework
         | with literal gigabytes of documentation and knowledge
         | accumulated in Stack Overflow over the course of fifteen
         | years...
         | 
         | So now instead of two in-house analyst-developers building
         | business applications, you have Mark from Marketing & Sales
         | building apps in low-code, and four "low-code-high-code"
         | contractors on expensive contracts cleaning up behind Mark.
         | 
         | And so it goes...
        
           | sanxiyn wrote:
           | Being able to do something by oneself is such a huge
           | advantage over telling someone else to do something that it
           | can compensate for lots and lots of disadvantages. HyperCard
           | was a great success, and I have high hope we will have great
           | low-code tools like HyperCard in the future.
        
             | arcturus17 wrote:
             | I was being facetious.
             | 
             | I agree there can be massive advantages to tools in the
             | "lower-to-no-code" spectrum; even software developers
             | benefit from the abstraction that frameworks and tooling
             | provide. At a business level, many organizations that offer
             | products and service in said spectrum have been successful
             | at a massive scale: Wordpress, Salesforce, Tableau,
             | Shopify, just off the top of my mind.
             | 
             | However my point about these applications creating a
             | cascade of new jobs still stands. And I don't think more
             | hand-crafted "high code" solutions are going anywhere
             | either; for starters I don't think anyone making this sort
             | of prediction understands the literal oceans handcrafted of
             | code we swim in. Who's going to take care of that, and how
             | long would it take to replace with "no-code"? Well over a
             | century, would be my guess. Software hasn't eaten the world
             | - it has devoured it.
             | 
             | Then there's the natural limitations of these tools. I had
             | to look up HyperCard as I didn't know about it, and it was
             | indeed an initial hit, but it seems like (a) it was limited
             | (for example, Wikipedia mentions people were making
             | "choose-your-own-adventure" games with it, but I know as a
             | fact that some games made by solo devs in the late 80s
             | where infinitely more intricate and deep) and (b) it didn't
             | have that much lasting power. I wonder if the latter is yet
             | another limitation of these tools - that they tend to quick
             | obsolescence as tech trends move at breakneck speed.
        
               | ebiester wrote:
               | I will say, as much as I agree with you, even software
               | organizations have problems that are well suited toward
               | these low code platforms. After working through some of
               | the quirks of retool, we have developers just adding
               | things in the fraction of the time as they took with our
               | first solution. I also saw another developer create an
               | "excel++" solution with Airtable that allowed us to solve
               | some problems that would have taken twice as long with
               | twice as many people otherwise.
               | 
               | Now, this isn't _every_ problem, but it 's a very useful
               | tool that will reduce the number of developers for _some_
               | tasks. I think there is a world where a business has six
               | or seven licenses for no-code solutions that reduce the
               | head count by 10-15 FTEs (or redirects them)
        
           | nickthemagicman wrote:
           | Haha this is the business model for every project I've ever
           | worked on in Tech is.
           | 
           | Hire low paid developers to 'save money' at the start.
           | 
           | Low paid developers present working prototypes that aren't
           | scalable or maintainable but the biz people don't know that
           | ,they just see working demos.
           | 
           | Years later the app is a nightmare and the low paid devs have
           | moved on and now they have to pay out the nose to get people
           | to actually work on their stuff.
           | 
           | And so it goes.
        
             | ryandrake wrote:
             | > Years later the app is a nightmare and the low paid devs
             | have moved on and now they have to pay out the nose to get
             | people to actually work on their stuff.
             | 
             | You forgot the part where they keep trying to lowball
             | competent developers, struggle to find someone willing to
             | duct tape their system together for "competitive" pay, and
             | throw their hands up declaring there's a Shortage Of
             | Developers(tm).
        
         | rutthenut wrote:
         | I think that sort of claim has been made for decades already,
         | repeated by each generation of programming language, 4GL tools,
         | AI and graphical tools.
        
           | tonyedgecombe wrote:
           | An example from forty years ago:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_One_(software)
        
         | np- wrote:
         | The way I see it, at the end of the day we still live in the
         | real world with real, imperfect business/social/etc processes.
         | Unless the entire world is 100% standardized and run by robots,
         | any technological no-code solution would still need to be
         | Turing Complete. At that point, basic computer science
         | principles need to be learned to use it, so all you've done is
         | create another programming language, which again...we already
         | have plenty of those.
        
       | vfc1 wrote:
       | At least the freelance rates of today are about the same value as
       | in the early 2000's, for the typical enterprise job.
       | 
       | I used to work as a freelance around 5 years ago, and I still
       | receive some recruiter emails with occasional mention of the
       | going rates.
       | 
       | It's the same as 5 years ago or less, which is the same since I
       | remember in the early 2000's.
       | 
       | The rates took a hit with the 2008 crisis and stagnated since
       | then. I think the golden age was somewhere in the mid-90s, where
       | developers got paid really well.
        
         | tonyedgecombe wrote:
         | I stopped contracting in 2001 (in the UK) and the rates I was
         | charging then don't look much different to what is on offer
         | today. It doesn't help that the UK tax authorities have been
         | waging war against contractors, their latest wheeze is to force
         | them into being employees.
        
           | burntoutfire wrote:
           | The rates are heavily dependent on the skillset. I.e. for
           | people well-versed in the latest and "greatest" tech, it's
           | typically 500-600 pounds per day, for everyone else it's
           | 300-500.
        
             | fy20 wrote:
             | That's what it's been for at least the last 8 years (when I
             | started contracting). For sure you can earn more if niche
             | down, but for a generic 'mid-senior level dev turned
             | contractor' those are the going rates.
        
       | tosswayaway wrote:
       | Question: Should I be struggling to afford a 1000 sq ft house and
       | maintain it? I want to get a bigger house but it feels like I'm
       | getting priced out of the market right now. Fortunately I already
       | have this small home which I used a loan from my retirement to
       | put the 5% down payment on, paid off the loan and refinanced a
       | couple of times, so I'm not struggling to pay for that, but it's
       | nowhere near big enough for my partner and I to both work
       | remotely. It's not in a super trendy area or new, actually near a
       | bunch of seedy motels and pawn shops. I'm taking off work and
       | crawling under my house to fix the furnace so I don't blow
       | through my savings. I don't go out to eat often or much more than
       | the occasional fast food or take extravagant vacations, usually
       | just road trips to visit family or national parks. I have spent
       | some money on replacing appliances and remodeling, but nowhere
       | near a down payment on another house. I only bought this place
       | because I was living in someone's attic and it was getting old.
       | I've been dev for 8 years, have always gotten stellar performance
       | reviews, manage people, and get bonuses. Just feels off to me.
       | Everyone else I know doing well has some kind of side hustle like
       | managing properties. I myself was freelancing the past year in my
       | free time trying to make some extra cash. True I'm doing better
       | than many people and I am saving for my retirement, but it seems
       | like a dev salary in this day and age should at least buy you a
       | decent house. Everyone I know got a down payment from their
       | parents. Is this normal? Where's the money at?
        
         | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
         | _> I want to get a bigger house but it feels like I'm getting
         | priced out of the market right now._
         | 
         | LOL, come to Germany where you're by default priced out of
         | buying any house period unless you get some sizable assistance
         | from the bank of mom and dad.
         | 
         |  _> Everyone I know got a down payment from their parents. Is
         | this normal?_
         | 
         | It's normal if you've won the lottery of birth. If not, then,
         | as someone else here said it, _" get richer parents"_.
        
           | tosswayaway wrote:
           | If there's any Daddy Warbucks out there that wants to adopt a
           | 30 year old son, please let me know.
        
         | zeku wrote:
         | I feel the same way. I've been a dev for a few years now, make
         | 150% of the median household income in my area by myself.
         | 
         | Even once I finish my student loan payments I will be in the
         | same position as you. I live in a Medium cost of living area of
         | a LCOL state.
         | 
         | All of my friends are doing okay even with way less personal
         | income than myself, because of their parents money. I happened
         | to come from a single parent home with no resources.
         | 
         | It's pretty damn clear to me that people of our generation can
         | not expect "The American Dream" unless their parents give them
         | a bunch of money or they become a very high income earner
         | themselves.
        
         | kingnothing wrote:
         | Leave the Bay Area, you'll afford a large house and car just
         | fine.
        
         | ecmascript wrote:
         | Answer: Yes, but it depends.
         | 
         | I have basically double the size of your house as living house,
         | a guest house that is about 800sq ft and a big ass barn. I
         | could afford it pretty easily but it needs a bit of
         | renovations.
         | 
         | Also, I live about 45 min drive from the nearest city with a
         | population of about 12k. I basically live in the middle of
         | nowhere but with a big house.
         | 
         | I work remotely so I can live here, which a lot of people today
         | struggle with. The trick is to live where no one else lives. In
         | my country there is a massive urbanization going on and living
         | in our capital where I am from is very expensive. A 3 bedroom
         | apartment would cost more than my farm.
         | 
         | I don't know if you should be struggling, but I guess everyone
         | kinda is. Everywhere I look there is people that seemingly have
         | huge amounts of cash but what you need to know is that
         | basically everyone sucks at money. Most of the western
         | lifestyle is provided thanks to loans.
         | 
         | This talk changed my life for the better when it comes to
         | economics and I recommend it to everyone:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-Li_sFNc4Q
         | 
         | I sold my new car, bought an old volvo from -97 and I save
         | about 60% of my income. That is helping a lot so I can afford
         | to renovate the house. What you need to do is simply to live
         | for much less than you earn, that way you will for sure end up
         | financially secured.
        
         | medium_burrito wrote:
         | In the US, in the states where we can make decent money, yes,
         | it is normal. If middle class is defined as being able to
         | afford a modest house/condo and retire at 65, yeah, this
         | country is fucked.
         | 
         | My experience parallels yours for 20-40 house owning friends in
         | the Pacific Northwest. People got help from parents, or got
         | lucky with IPOs (a minority of us for sure), or have trust
         | funds, or bought in when houses were less than $500k.
         | 
         | So much of the market is a combination of real estate
         | investors, private equity and foreign investors. I know a bunch
         | of boomers who basically own several properties, and just keep
         | buying them up. One guy in LA owns several hundred now in his
         | later years.
         | 
         | EDIT: Also obviously massive asset inflation due to QE
         | Infinity, which has more or less fucked everybody who has cash
         | or a low net worth.
        
           | ryandrake wrote:
           | Same observation here. Things are bifurcating into 1. a
           | (mostly younger) underclass whose savings will never catch up
           | with prices to the point where they can own real estate /
           | stocks without help from parents, and 2. a (mostly older)
           | capital class who own multiple, sometimes dozens of
           | properties, robust 401(k)s and pensions, and use those assets
           | as leverage to buy more and more assets. The middle class
           | "family without help owning a single home they live
           | comfortably in" is vanishing.
        
         | eulers_secret wrote:
         | Same place right here.
         | 
         | I've been living WAY WAY below my means. I drive a 15 year old
         | car, I live in a 1br apt (wife and I, 650 sqft). I've also been
         | pushing forward in my career with as much zeal as I can muster.
         | I'm also putting my wife through grad school (though she'll
         | never make much, English degree - I'm just glad I can enable
         | her to chase her passions) I don't have high other bills,
         | currently have an iPhone 7 and don't plan to upgrade, my PC is
         | 8 years old, etc.
         | 
         | I've managed to just this year save up the down payment for
         | houses in my area... but it's kinda dumb, because I really
         | can't afford a house (mortgage/higher utilities/repairs/etc).
         | So I'm in limbo: I have a LOT of cash saved, that should be
         | invested (especially now), but I might buy a house in 5 years
         | so I keep it liquid.
         | 
         | I also want to say that I tied home ownership (or at least
         | living in a house) to having children - I don't want the stress
         | of bothering my neighbors on top of child stress. So I haven't
         | started a family, and I don't see a path to starting one. I
         | think I have been priced out of having a family and it makes me
         | so so sad.
         | 
         | At least I'm a dev, my non-dev friends may as well not even
         | bother getting up in the morning. They will never, ever, ever
         | gain enough capital to be a owner. If their parents are broke,
         | they'll die having only lived in apartments. This also makes me
         | very sad.
         | 
         | I don't see prices going down. I guess I could move, and I am
         | kind of planning a remote/low cost play after COVID is over and
         | I can get an understanding of how stable remote work is. I'd
         | hate to be stuck in the boonies of South Dakota looking for a
         | dev job because things "went back to normal". Holding pattern
         | forever.
        
           | Kalium wrote:
           | > I also want to say that I tied home ownership (or at least
           | living in a house) to having children - I don't want the
           | stress of bothering my neighbors on top of child stress. So I
           | haven't started a family, and I don't see a path to starting
           | one. I think I have been priced out of having a family and it
           | makes me so so sad.
           | 
           | I see this a lot. Generally I see it from people who were
           | raised outside urban areas, with a very white-picket-fence
           | lifestyle. It turns into a great deal of stress in people's
           | lives and relationships, as they often literally cannot
           | imagine having children without a detached single family
           | house and a yard and so on. I've seen some of them take major
           | financial risks to try and work up what feels like enough
           | money, with depression resulting if doesn't work.
           | 
           | The people I know who grew up in urban apartments often have
           | none of these hangups. They regard occasionally hearing your
           | neighbor's children as a fact of life.
        
             | eulers_secret wrote:
             | That's interesting! I actually grew up in single-parent
             | household, have never lived in a house, and certainly have
             | heard my neighbors children. Not urban, but suburban
             | apartments. I guess I buck the trend (or maybe I'm reaching
             | too high :-P )
             | 
             | I've even thought that, after infancy, apartment living is
             | potentially BETTER for kids. Reasoning that there are more
             | nearby friends and usually a playground or field to play
             | in. I certainly had lots of fun with the neighborhood kids
             | in the pool/large field/playground on the apartment grounds
             | when I was young.
             | 
             | But, kids are noisy during quiet hours (before you can
             | reasonably control them). I remember it being hard on my
             | mom when my brother was young. Always 1/2 a step from
             | eviction for noise complaints. I felt the stress as a
             | child, I cannot imagine how hard it was on her. I don't
             | want to do that...
        
           | zaphod12 wrote:
           | Only comment is that keeping your money in cash instead of
           | invested for a 5 year horizon isn't wise. Put them in
           | something on the safer side - I'm not saying buy Bitcoin or
           | something - but that's a long time to have your money not be
           | working for you at all. Interest rates at way below
           | inflation.
        
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