[HN Gopher] The Dying Art of Persuasion
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       The Dying Art of Persuasion
        
       Author : apsec112
       Score  : 55 points
       Date   : 2021-02-16 15:12 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (unherd.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (unherd.com)
        
       | sleepysysadmin wrote:
       | Persuasion is dying but it's not dead. It has morphed in this age
       | of echo chambers. How do you persuade someone who is stuck in a
       | situation not hearing opposing viewpoints?
        
       | pnathan wrote:
       | The article asserts a strawman, that we had, in the past, cool,
       | rational, reasoned debates that we all stroked our beards and
       | decided what the right choice of action would be.
       | 
       | I would suggest several counter examples:
       | 
       | * Hearst Newspapers and "Yellow Journalism"
       | 
       | * McCarthyism
       | 
       | * Revolutionary War era op-eds (e.g.,
       | https://thefederalistpapers.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/T... )
        
       | Grustaf wrote:
       | Why persuade when you can simply cancel your opponent?
        
       | Igelau wrote:
       | It was a little uncomfortable that the author found it necessary
       | to keep referring to Rationalists as "nerds and weirdos".
       | Presumably he left these irons in the fire in case someone tries
       | to associate him with the Rationalists. Not sure I want to read
       | his book if the conclusion is "I only feel like I can talk about
       | them safely if I call them derisive names".
        
         | mcguire wrote:
         | I suspect the author regards "nerds and weirdos" as positive
         | things.
        
       | seph-reed wrote:
       | Persuasion is a symptom of a broken system in which everyone
       | votes independently.
       | 
       | Systems like "liquid democracy" make it so not everyone needs to
       | be an expert on every issue, they just have to choose someone
       | slightly smarter than themselves.
       | 
       | In academic spaces, persuasion is still alive and well.
        
       | bentona wrote:
       | I agree with the comments positing that persuasion is clearly
       | alive and well, given the enthusiasm of today's e.g.
       | demonstrations. I believe the author's point, however, is that
       | persuasion can (should?) engage the conscious, rational mind,
       | rather than just fear-based, tribal instincts leveraged today.
        
         | quirkot wrote:
         | I'll take the counterpoint. Tribal instincts exist because it
         | is impossible to have rational/conscious debate about most
         | things. It's basically over engineering the problem.
         | 
         | How would you convince an entire lakeside community to site a
         | water treatment plant somewhere else? How many man-years of
         | training would be required for them to have enough fundamental
         | understanding to even enter a rational/informed debate? And
         | what other topics are competing for that time? vs. "Chris is
         | the expert and I trust Chris, so we'll do what Chris says"
        
         | shuntress wrote:
         | Maybe it _can_ or _should_ but when the ends justify the means
         | and the goal is to scale your persuasion as far and wide as
         | possible it seems to be tough to beat  "us vs them" fear-based
         | persuasion.
        
       | ouid wrote:
       | I think that Scott Alexander or whatever his name is, does a much
       | better job than say, Paul Graham, at presenting the best
       | counterargument whenever he presents something that he believes,
       | but it's intrinsically a game of trust.
       | 
       | I think what the New York Times intrinsically understands is that
       | the art persuasion is not actually the art of being rational and
       | critical. It is the art of convincing someone else that you have
       | been rational and critical. I am not generally defending the New
       | York Times, I just think that they do understand how good faith
       | persuasive essays can be gateways to bad faith persuasive essays.
       | 
       | The existence and effectiveness of bad faith persuasion is
       | nowhere clearer than in court, where you are essentially
       | obligated by the system to act in bad faith (lawyers would not
       | describe it this way, but presenting an argument that you know to
       | be flawed is bad faith), and lawyers are _very_ convincing.
       | However without an adversarial court system, lawyers are about as
       | good a way of getting to the truth of the matter as crystal
       | balls.
       | 
       | A reasonable, but not infallible heuristic for evaluating an
       | essay for good faith, is to just imagine how much different the
       | essay would look if counterarguments could be inserted after
       | reaching some threshold of support by the general population.
       | 
       | The aggregate problem remains, however. Persuasive essays
       | maintain a shared credit score which is extremely problematic for
       | the process of truth-seeking. Even essays from the same author,
       | can operate on wildly different points on the good/bad faith
       | spectrum.
       | 
       | I guess my point is that the solution is not "more rational
       | essayists", but rather provably adversarial comment systems, in
       | which authors are not advantaged.
        
         | mcguire wrote:
         | " _I think what the New York Times intrinsically understands is
         | that the art persuasion is not actually the art of being
         | rational and critical._ "
         | 
         | Catarina Dutilh Novaes once pointed out something that has
         | stuck with me: logic is a branch of rhetoric. The original
         | purpose of logic is the building of convincing, persuasive
         | arguments. In short, it's the other way around from what most
         | believe.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | What would a provably adversarial comment system even look
         | like? Maybe my uncreativeness is showing - but I can't even
         | imagine this.
        
           | Dracophoenix wrote:
           | Reddit's CMV should qualify
        
             | HDMI_Cable wrote:
             | What does CMV stand for in this context?
        
         | isoskeles wrote:
         | > A reasonable, but not infallible heuristic for evaluating an
         | essay for good faith, is to just imagine how much different the
         | essay would look if counterarguments could be inserted after
         | reaching some threshold of support by the general population.
         | 
         | I'm not sure I follow what you mean here, and how this looks in
         | either a good faith or bad faith presentation of some argument.
         | Would 'good faith' be closer to an essay that presents its
         | arguments in a somewhat neutral but supportive perspective
         | (e.g. without lying or misleading), such that adding its
         | counterarguments wouldn't almost convincingly disprove
         | everything that was just written? Whereas a 'bad faith'
         | argument with its counterarguments presented would look quite
         | flimsy?
        
           | ouid wrote:
           | A good faith argument looks less different from the imagined
           | argument. It's a heuristic, peoples imaginations are
           | different, but if you can tell that there are objections that
           | people would have that haven't been addressed, it is likely
           | the author could tell as well.
        
       | furrowedbrow wrote:
       | I think your line "It's also more fun" sums it up. Social media
       | is about dopamine. As for the art of persuasion, while it might
       | be marginalized in the current online environment, I'm encouraged
       | when I hear people acknowledge that rational arguments have never
       | been the best tool for changing people's minds, especially not in
       | the short run. I think more often they come in handy after the
       | fact, to rationalize people's feelings and memberships. But
       | that's not to say we should throw up our hands and give up on
       | reaching people. There's the alternative of delaying rational
       | debate until a foundation of decency and emotional goodwill has
       | been established--again, pretty tough to do online. There was an
       | episode of Yascha Mounk's podcast from 9/4/20 where these two
       | approaches are discussed. Elizabeth Anderson offers this critique
       | to Mounk's project (called, oddly enough, "Persuasion"): "This is
       | why I think I have some slight reservation against your
       | Persuasion project, because it's all about argument. I don't
       | think Americans in general are ready for argument, what we have
       | to have is testimony. That's where people just sit down and talk
       | about their lives, and open up in ways that other people can
       | actually listen, and hear what the experience of others is like.
       | Where people are speaking from the heart, about their experience.
       | It's not about larger scale, policy arguments about principles;
       | it's just about experience."
        
         | rektide wrote:
         | the recent "the best story wins"[1][2] is a different angle but
         | kind of suggests a similar thing, that our based instincts win,
         | that whatever fits our current context best is easiest to adopt
         | & will be adopted.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/story/
         | 
         | [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26115902
        
       | quirkot wrote:
       | This presents a fairly narrow view of persuasion, a romanticized
       | version. Broadly defined persuasion is alive and well.
       | 
       | Consider the massive political demonstrations that have occurred
       | in the last year, who persuaded these people to leave their homes
       | and congregate during the middle of a pandemic?
       | 
       | Consider the rapid decriminalization of marijuana and even other
       | drugs. Who persuaded these voters to change the law?
       | 
       | Consider all the new start-ups and other business that rely on a
       | sales force to persuade customers of their value and to sign up?
       | 
       | Persuasion is very much still alive
        
         | Digory wrote:
         | "Choice" is very much alive in your examples.
         | 
         | We seem to be in an open fight against negative reinforcement.
         | To say "policing is the consequence of bad behavior," or "You
         | should go to jail for dealing weed" or even "We shouldn't
         | cancel services or people too hastily" is to pick a fight.
        
           | quirkot wrote:
           | If arguing online has taught me anything, it's that you don't
           | need to win a fight to persuade bystanders of your
           | righteousness
        
           | Jochim wrote:
           | I don't think those points really link together.
           | 
           | 1) This argument is about negative reinforcement argument.
           | Specifically how increasing levels of it haven't fixed the
           | problems that lead to high crime in those neighbourhoods in
           | the first place and in some cases has made those
           | neighbourhoods more dangerous. We already know tough on crime
           | policies don't work. It's why we don't chop off the hands of
           | thieves. It's why states with the death penalty still have
           | plenty of murders.
           | 
           | 2) The argument isn't against negative reinforcement it's
           | that marijuana shouldn't be illegal in the first place.
           | 
           | 3) Implies the people you're arguing against are in favour of
           | at least some negative reinforcement.
        
         | coding123 wrote:
         | I think what he's trying to say is that instead of doing this:
         | L > > > C < < < R
         | 
         | Media outlets are focusing more on this:                   L <
         | < < C > > > R
         | 
         | But you're right, it's still persuasion.
         | 
         | It was all explained during the superbowl man.
        
           | prionassembly wrote:
           | Superbowl? Reference?
        
             | chordalkeyboard wrote:
             | Yeah this should be developed more
        
       | kop316 wrote:
       | I've noted an increasing trend in US papers that the headline or
       | the first few paragraphs sort of level where the author expects
       | your beliefs will be, and much of the article is precicated on
       | such beliefs. For me personally, it makes trying to read the rest
       | of the article, whether I agree with the headline/first few
       | paragraphs or not, much more difficult.
        
       | sandworm101 wrote:
       | Lol. The art is not dead. It has simply moved on from ancient
       | forms. Nobody's mind is being changed by editorials in some
       | paper-and-ink newspaper. Minds are changed through social media.
       | The skill now isn't about formulated argument. It is about subtle
       | pushes delivered through a variety of means. Want grandma to
       | change her mind about politics? Don't send her a well-reasoned
       | letter. Manipulate her social media feeds. Hit her with targeted
       | adds/messages from apparently like-minded people. Manufacture
       | something that she fears that will draw her to where you want her
       | to move. The art of persuasion isn't dead. It is just now
       | operating on a wider playing field and softer rulebook.
        
         | spaetzleesser wrote:
         | It seems what you are describing is manipulation, not
         | persuasion. The outcome is the same but at least in my mind
         | persuasion means to have a good faith argument.
        
         | PradeetPatel wrote:
         | As someone who worked in the reputation management industry, I
         | find that there is an element of truth to your statement.
         | 
         | The essence if persuasion lies in enforcing your values onto
         | another party. Media saturation has been a time-tested, and
         | effective technique to ensure the right narrative is conveyed.
         | 
         | However, the mediums have changed in the modern era, therefore
         | the technique, although still valid, must be adapted for the
         | age of social media and instant gratification.
        
           | mcguire wrote:
           | "Enforcing"?
        
         | ed25519FUUU wrote:
         | > _Minds are changed through social media._
         | 
         | Respectfully disagree. I think minds are being changed by news
         | sources and real-life experiences, and social media is
         | reinforcing the views of each tribe.
        
           | shuntress wrote:
           | Minds are changed by all inputs but some are more effective
           | than others.
           | 
           | I don't think it is a stretch to assume "community consensus"
           | is the most effective way to change minds.
           | 
           | That (in both cases, _perceived_ ) consensus can be accessed
           | through either "traditional" or "social" media but either way
           | people decide based mostly on _" What does everyone else
           | think about this?"_
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | TwitBar wrote:
           | > minds are being changed by news sources
           | 
           | Optimistic of you. For everyone else, social media supplants
           | traditional news.
           | 
           | > and real-life experiences
           | 
           | For many, social media _is_ reality. Enough to end lives,
           | livelihoods, and each other 's patience at least.
        
         | rhencke wrote:
         | Human interaction is fundamentally persuasive, even when
         | completely unintentional. I don't think you can get around
         | that.
        
           | __s wrote:
           | You can get around it. A couple weeks ago I had friends over
           | while their place had to be vacated for a few hours, they
           | bought lunch, we played with cats
           | 
           | You can go after "all altruism is selfish" argument but
           | you'll end up having to settle with "some altruism is more
           | selfish than others"
        
             | rhencke wrote:
             | I find that experience to be persuasive, as well. It
             | persuades me about the kindness of your friends.
        
               | __s wrote:
               | You weren't a part of this interaction. You're going with
               | the "How can you tell if someone is vegan? ..they'll tell
               | you" joke
        
         | marcinzm wrote:
         | As I see it the art of persuasion has been weaponized over the
         | last century through media and advertising. Ever more effective
         | ways of manipulating people were devised and deployed at scale.
         | The current most effective approach being social media. So why
         | would someone bother with an older less efficient weapon when
         | they can use the latest and greatest weapon for the same price?
        
         | potta_coffee wrote:
         | Is that the art of persuasion or the art of propaganda?
        
           | chanakya wrote:
           | To say that propaganda is part of the art of persuasion would
           | be stretching the meaning of persuasion beyond its general
           | usage. Persuasion implies a respect for its recipient and
           | their rational faculty and trying to convince them by
           | reasonable evidence and arguments. That is missing from
           | propaganda. In fact, propaganda and advertising is most often
           | the opposite, in that it aims to overpower the rational
           | faculty with irrational appeals to emotion.
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | Propaganda is a tool of persuasion. So too is fear, money,
           | guilt, logic and everything else under the sun that may move
           | someone's mind from one opinion to another. The outer bounds
           | are only what is acceptable under the various rulebooks (eg
           | laws) which today are wide open compared to yesteryear.
        
           | wwweston wrote:
           | It's the art of persuasion via propaganda.
        
         | 99_00 wrote:
         | Appeals to emotions, bias, fear, and arguments from authority
         | have always been used to persuade people.
         | 
         | See Aristotle's Rhetoric. Ethos, pathos.
        
         | mdavis6890 wrote:
         | Not true - for the most part social media and the other types
         | of ads, etc you mention are about reinforcing already-held
         | beliefs, or otherwise giving them direction. Persuasion is
         | about actually changing someone's mind.
         | 
         | This is why a given political ad can reinforce the beliefs of
         | two people who believe opposing ideas: One says "See, I KNEW it
         | was true." and the other says "See! I knew the
         | media/platform/community was biased this way!"
        
         | conception wrote:
         | This is a legit startup idea I'd pay for. "De-radicalize your
         | parents". It gets their ad profiled and crafts a campaign
         | highly targeted with an ever non-radical content stream.
         | 
         | For reals - y'all reading this now - right or wrong, this is a
         | thing that's needed. I have no idea what I'd pay... 50/mo? 1000
         | for a full campaign? But it'd be substantial.
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | Much like John Oliver's show paid to have "informative"
           | commercials run on Fox news in the DC area specifically
           | targeting the US president. It is perfectly legal but
           | expensive.
        
           | FooBarBizBazz wrote:
           | Fun irony: Simultaneously, conception's parents were paying
           | the same company to finagle conception's feed.
           | 
           | The one thing both ad drips agreed on was that this company
           | was the absolute best.
        
           | ironmagma wrote:
           | How is this different from paying to remove ads altogether?
           | It will start out true to the idea, but then over time the
           | companies will slowly start to double dip, re-radicalizing
           | the content because that gets more engagement.
        
             | conception wrote:
             | Oh yeah 100%, no doubt. But I can dream.
        
         | forgotmypw17 wrote:
         | The Wolves of Nova Scotia :)
        
       | mcguire wrote:
       | " _But the line in which he "aligns himself" with Murray is on
       | whether there is a genetic component to poverty (which surely
       | there must be), ..._ "
       | 
       | What? Genetic component of poverty?!
       | 
       | " _Another example. "Free speech" has become a left-right
       | battleground issue, and the instances we read about are always of
       | right-wing speech being limited by left-wing activists. So,
       | inevitably, left-wing people think it's a partisan attack on
       | them, or a smokescreen for people who just want to say unpleasant
       | things (which, let's be clear, it often is). But Alexander takes
       | a different tack. In one post, for example, he calls attention to
       | a woman fired for "having a Kerry-Edwards bumper sticker on her
       | car" by her George W Bush-supporting boss. The point is, or at
       | least the effect on me was, to drag the issue away from partisan
       | sniping. It wasn't firing shots in the culture war, it was
       | talking to liberals and left-wingers, trying to persuade._ "
       | 
       | Alexander's post is from 2013, which was before much of the
       | current free speech hoopla. Somehow, I'm not finding this
       | persuasive.
       | 
       | Ultimately, in fact, I think this article is exactly what it
       | seems to be complaining about, just in regard to an issue that is
       | orthogonal to the big political discussions it uses as examples:
       | Chivers is writing to a rationalist audience about how
       | rationalists are wonderful.
        
       | rektide wrote:
       | consider the reciprocal, how persuadable are people? how much
       | humility do we temper our views & stances with?
       | 
       | the internet exposes so many of us to torrents of information.
       | the world seems more firm & certain, now that the cold war is
       | over, now that capitalism's steady gobbling up of all local
       | systems has proceeded space for decades unabated & unchanged. my
       | guess is that people feel more resolute in their own views, &
       | that the world seems less in flux/malleable than ever.
        
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       (page generated 2021-02-17 21:03 UTC)