[HN Gopher] US raises 'deep concerns' over WHO report on Covid's...
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       US raises 'deep concerns' over WHO report on Covid's Wuhan origins
        
       Author : lazycrazyowl
       Score  : 165 points
       Date   : 2021-02-13 17:48 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | mgamache wrote:
       | Related: China refused to provide WHO team with raw data on early
       | COVID cases,
       | 
       | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-ch...
        
         | f430 wrote:
         | If the CCP is innocent why not prove it to the world by sharing
         | their data? Why hide things?
        
           | buran77 wrote:
           | While Chinese authorities may very well be to blame for this,
           | your reasoning is flawed. Governments hide a lot of things
           | for a lot of reasons, whether nefarious or not, especially
           | when it comes to sharing with foreign powers.
           | 
           | The "argument" that "if you've got nothing to hide then you
           | have nothing to worry about" is is just as worthless when
           | promoting encryption backdoors as it is now.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | katbyte wrote:
             | I'm not sure you can compare the two, "why are you
             | encrypting your data/communication" is very different then
             | "why are you not sharing the early virus samples"
        
               | buran77 wrote:
               | I looked at the principle of claiming that "if you're
               | innocent why hide things". And that's _exactly_ like
               | saying that if you 're not breaking the law then you have
               | no reason to hide your communication from authorities
               | because "they'll only look when they suspect something
               | and that would just prove your innocence". If anything,
               | accusing someone and asking them to prove their innocence
               | opens the door to false accusations meant only to force
               | the other side to leak some information. A principle you
               | wouldn't want applied to you isn't a very good one.
        
               | fsflover wrote:
               | This principle applies to individuals, not to the
               | governments. The latter are created by people to serve
               | people and must be open and transparent. The alternative
               | is being corrupt.
        
           | elif wrote:
           | In modern discourse we use the acronym CPC rather than CCP.
           | Unless of course you are intentionally invoking red scare era
           | politics.
           | 
           | Edit: ah rip karma. who was I kidding. Why would you ever
           | promote neutral discourse when you can take sides.
        
             | willis936 wrote:
             | It isn't a promotion of neutral discourse. The party didn't
             | change, why would the name?
        
               | elif wrote:
               | So calling things by their preferred name is not neutral?
               | 
               | This is like making a statement about the demonrats and
               | expecting to be taken seriously.
               | 
               | It has the intellectual power of intentionally
               | misgendering someone as a means of insulting them.
               | 
               | There is a reason that neoconservatives like Mike Pompeo
               | are revitalizing your preferred acronym.
        
               | willis936 wrote:
               | The fundamental reason that names are considered
               | important right now is because they are tied to expressed
               | identity. Has the CCP's expressed identity changed?
               | 
               | Recall when BP changed their logo last: months after a
               | horrible oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The singular
               | reason why BP changed their logo was an attempt to trick
               | the public. It wasn't a changing of identity. Changing
               | the CCP's name when they haven't even done it themselves
               | would be the same kind of disingenuousness.
        
               | elif wrote:
               | I am not debating how the governance of china has changed
               | since 1990. There are plenty of cases to be made there,
               | but not mine. I am making a linguistic position.
        
             | garrettgrimsley wrote:
             | "commonly known as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)"
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Communist_Party
        
               | elif wrote:
               | being "commonly used" is not the same thing as being the
               | "correct uncharged verbiage."
               | 
               | For an example, there are many similarly charged terms
               | "commonly used" to identify geographic areas surrounding
               | Israel, but in modern discourse we use "Occupied
               | Palestinian Territory" since 1999.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | Yeah, "correct uncharged verbiage" is not the same as
               | "the name that someone wants themselves called". So, I'm
               | not going to call North Korea "Democratic People's
               | Republic of Korea" because despite their preference for
               | being called Democratic, they are not.
               | 
               | North Korea remains North Korea. CCP remains CCP.
               | Blackwater remains Blackwater, not Akademi or Xe or
               | whatever bloody thing they're called now. I'm not going
               | to just go along with whatever rebranding their PR agency
               | told them to do.
        
             | alisonatwork wrote:
             | I find this a really fascinating instance of micro-
             | propaganda. CCP could evoke associations with "CCCP", but
             | CPC might remind Americans of the Congressional Progressive
             | Caucus or Canadians of the Conservative Party of Canada. It
             | could be that neither acronym is especially neutral, not
             | after surfacing the accusation that using one is implicitly
             | biased. I have to admit to having used both acronyms in the
             | past, but it was never for any malicious reason, it was
             | just to try create continuity with other people in the
             | discussion.
             | 
             | The funny thing is that people in China use neither of
             | these acronyms, they just refer to "the government" or "the
             | party". This is probably the safest terminology to avoid
             | being seen as biased one way or the other.
             | 
             | What's so interesting to me, is that even your choice of a
             | three letter acronym, which literally means the exact same
             | thing just with a different word order, is considered to be
             | taking a side. It goes to show just how fraught
             | conversation on China has become that it's even considered
             | important.
        
               | elif wrote:
               | It is not "my choice" of a three letter acronym.
               | 
               | It is the party's choice for its English language
               | representation.
               | 
               | I'm not making any political statements here. I am
               | suggesting that we use common nomenclature while pointing
               | out a hazard of a specific instance of dated terminology.
        
               | alisonatwork wrote:
               | I think you misunderstood my usage of "your choice". I
               | was using it as an indefinite pronoun, i.e. "one's
               | choice".
               | 
               | My point was that turning one's choice of synonymous
               | terminology into a marker of political bias is itself an
               | interesting comment on how difficult it is for people to
               | engage in curious discussion about China. Given that at
               | HN we are expected to assume good faith, I think it's
               | fair to assume that most people who use CCP (or CPC) are
               | not deliberately trying to take a side, they are just
               | using a convenient acronym.
        
               | elif wrote:
               | Consider that the scope of discussion here is that a WHO
               | scientist received a summary of 174 covid cases rather
               | than a full version of the data, and himself "couldn't
               | comment. Whether it's political or time or it's
               | difficult... But whether there are any other reasons why
               | the data isn't available, I don't know. One would only
               | speculate."
               | 
               | Yet the comment I sacrificed Karma to inform of
               | "potentially unconscious bias of language" was willing to
               | offer nothing more than postulation that a political
               | party is responsible for "hiding the data", and the
               | repetition of the CCP identification.
        
               | hartator wrote:
               | > It is the party's choice for its English language
               | representation.
               | 
               | Maybe OP disagrees on the party authority to define
               | language including naming itself.
        
           | mgamache wrote:
           | Well, lets say they don't know, but there's a chance of a lab
           | leak. Why take the chance when you can use FUD to confuse the
           | world and remove the downside risk (which is very large).
        
             | loveistheanswer wrote:
             | Perhaps they did not account for a potential Streissand
             | Effect
        
           | sixothree wrote:
           | Innocent of what exactly? You seem to suggest they are hiding
           | a single specific crime here. Which doesn't make any sense.
        
         | ArkanExplorer wrote:
         | But we did have data from cruise ships early in 2020 which
         | showed that deaths were heavily age-specific, and that the
         | death and hospitalization forecasts from organisations like
         | Oxford were highly inaccurate.
         | 
         | Yet for some reason the West seemed intent on pursuing
         | lockdowns, demonising countries like Sweden and Belarus which
         | didn't.
         | 
         | Hospitals have never been overloaded (apart from places like
         | New York where symptomatic patients were sent back into nursing
         | homes - or Italy, with generally inadequate pandemic
         | preparations) and in places like Sweden deaths in 2020 are up
         | only single-digits against 2018:
         | 
         | https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-...
         | 
         | As soon as we realised we were over-intubating patients, and
         | that proning and oxygen treatment were sufficient for serious
         | admissions, and that Vitamin D and C (and other cheap and
         | generic treatments) were enough for the general population, the
         | potential for hospital overload (beyond what flu waves incur
         | anyway) was also eliminated.
         | 
         | And yet we still persist with lockdowns despite them causing a
         | greater amount of harm than the virus itself due to factors
         | like interrupted education, mental damage, and interrupted
         | regular medical treatment.
         | 
         | There were political games afoot in both China and the West in
         | terms of this virus. The fact that the American economy was
         | booming just before the re-election of a non-mainstream, anti-
         | China president, and that pandemic responses justified mail-in
         | voting on an unprecedent scale is too coincidental to ignore.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | Yes, (((they))) made up the election votes so Biden would
           | win.
           | 
           | Absolutely. It definitely cannot be that Trump never polled
           | more than 50% nationwide and lost his initial vote by nearly
           | 3 million.
           | 
           | You've cracked the code!
           | 
           | Downvoters: Facts don't care about your feelings, any
           | evidence of wrongdoing?
        
             | ArkanExplorer wrote:
             | It doesn't really matter if the votes were legitimate or
             | not. Just by changing to postal voting you alter the
             | demographics of the voting base in ways which can change
             | the outcome.
        
       | renewiltord wrote:
       | The WHO is a useless organization. For political reasons, it will
       | be necessary to engage, but hopefully US authorities will not
       | treat it as an information source.
       | 
       | The US should use its own primary sources in future to evaluate
       | disease spread. China _will_ lie to the WHO and the WHO _will_
       | protect it.
       | 
       | But to know the truth, we should use our modern equivalents of
       | Key Hole. There is no truth but that which you have examined
       | yourself.
        
         | the-dude wrote:
         | I watched the WHO press briefings in about the first month.
         | 
         | If the Western world would have done what the WHO advised at
         | the time, we all more or less would have a COVID stuation like
         | the Chinese have for some time.
        
           | ourlordcaffeine wrote:
           | Taiwan, the country that arguably handled the virus best of
           | all, did so well because they ignored the WHO and quickly
           | closed their border, at the time when the WHO was insisting
           | that countries do not restrict travel to/from China.
        
           | katbyte wrote:
           | Could you elaborate on what that situation is?
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | Mask early, serious lockdown as soon as it becomes serious,
             | and don't end lockdowns before numbers are way low. We
             | masked late, put lockdowns in place late if at all, and
             | ended them way too early, which means that some countries
             | went through several ones. And we're not through yet.
             | 
             | That said, I don't share the optimism of the parent poster.
             | This would be a heavy burden in terms of freedom and human
             | rights for a result that is far from certain. There have
             | been some resurgences, the extent of which is of course
             | unknown because the truth would be damageable to China. And
             | there is no knowing whether the next variant would start it
             | all over again, in which it would be back to square one.
        
               | ern wrote:
               | I am curious about this "pro-lockdown, pro-mask" advice
               | from ethe WHO.
               | 
               | I am almost certain that they took a long time to
               | recommend masking. I also am fairly confident that the
               | WHO was/is opposed to lockdowns and it certainly still
               | opposes travel restrictions.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > I am almost certain that they took a long time to
               | recommend masking.
               | 
               | They did. Initially they recommended testing and
               | isolating (which obviously could not scale much). Their
               | guidelines were still happily ignored as they were
               | updated, though.
        
               | aksss wrote:
               | I'm not sure the federal government has the plenary power
               | to enforce such things in the United States. So it was
               | never an option. Authoritarian governments or single-
               | state nations are better able to mandate behavior.
               | 
               | The lockdowns, even as implemented, extracted an enormous
               | toll on small businesses and mental health.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > I'm not sure the federal government has the plenary
               | power to enforce such things in the United States.
               | 
               | I am certain it hasn't. But the same reasoning applies
               | for state governments. Having public health decisions
               | taken at the county level is sheer madness.
               | 
               | > The lockdowns, even as implemented, extracted an
               | enormous toll on small businesses and mental health.
               | 
               | This is entirely true, and I hope this will make people
               | and governments take health issues and depression more
               | seriously. Now, we don't have an alternative earth to
               | experiment, but whether one strict lockdown for 6 months
               | followed by progressive reopening is better or worse for
               | people and the economy compared to a succession of waves
               | and partial lockdowns with no end in sight should
               | certainly be discussed.
               | 
               | This is even more skewed in countries that do not have a
               | proper safety net and where people have the choice
               | between going to work ill or not having a job.
        
               | Aunche wrote:
               | I think it's more of a cultural difference rather than
               | government one. Korea and Taiwan are democracies and
               | managed to control the pandemic as well. The US
               | government has the authority to declare martial law, but
               | doing so would completely undermine people's faith in the
               | government.
        
               | the8472 wrote:
               | _> > If the Western world would have done what the WHO
               | advised at the time, we all more or less would have a
               | COVID stuation like the Chinese have for some time.
               | 
               | > Mask early_
               | 
               | Are we living in the same timeline?
               | 
               | https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1243972193169616898
               | https://twitter.com/UNGeneva/status/1244661916535930886
               | https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234095938555260929
               | https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871709091667969
               | https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234619007841525764
        
               | Aunche wrote:
               | Most of those tweets were discouraging the use of masks
               | _for the purpose of protecting yourself from Covid_. This
               | still holds true today. At the time, a lot of people were
               | hoarding masks, thinking it would protect themselves.
               | Letting them continue wouldn 't help control the spread,
               | and probably would have increased the spread in
               | hospitals.
               | 
               | I agree the fourth tweet has aged particularly terribly.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | Thank you for putting this stuff together. In the past, I
               | did the same when people asked for "source?" for things
               | like "Fauci and the HHS recommended _against_ masking ".
               | After I go through the painful process of reacquiring
               | each of the sources, these people disappear.
               | 
               | "Source?" is now the dual of the Gish Gallop strategy. It
               | is a meta-rhetorical strategy to amplify work done by
               | some perceived "opponent".
               | 
               | After all, for anyone who truly believes in sourced
               | claims, they would say "I found these sources that do X.
               | What have you found?" This is natural because they are
               | more interested in the truth than in an argument against
               | an "opponent".
               | 
               | So now I don't respond to disproportionate requests for
               | work. I am glad you did, though. And looking through
               | them, it's exactly as I remember: anti-mask advocacy.
        
               | the8472 wrote:
               | I'll give credit to the WHO for not deleting their
               | tweets. It would be even better if they offered a mea
               | culpa explaining how they came to this position that was
               | incorrect in hindsight. But not just disappearing things
               | already is better than some others do.
        
               | MrYellowP wrote:
               | > they disappear
               | 
               | https://help.archive.org/hc/en-
               | us/articles/360001513491-Save...
               | 
               | :)
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | Haha I mean the people disappear after firing off their
               | "Source" calls. They're not really interested in sources.
               | It's a technique to get you to waste your time.
               | 
               | The sources remain. Editing for clarity.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | Right, yes, that was early March. The guidelines evolved
               | as more information became available and they released
               | new advice in early April, which is far from ideal but
               | better than a lot of governments reactions.
               | 
               | Their official stance before that was rigorous test,
               | isolate, and trace, which was not done seriously anywhere
               | outside China.
        
               | alisonatwork wrote:
               | I was in China during the initial lockdown that started
               | in late January/early February. The instructions from the
               | government were clear from day one: stay home as much as
               | possible, wear a mask when you go out, wash your hands
               | when you get home, open your windows and keep your place
               | well-ventilated. All that advice holds true today, just
               | as it held true for SARS, MERS and other similar viruses.
               | 
               | I feel like the reporting from the WHO was deliberately
               | sub-par for political reasons. For example the
               | vacillating on masks - everyone knew that masks helped,
               | but the WHO tried to be on the fence about it because
               | some countries were experiencing shortages. Another
               | example of the WHO playing politics was when they
               | neglected to publish the advice not to trust folk
               | remedies, since that would have gone against a Chinese
               | government campaign to try softly promote TCM, perhaps as
               | a form of psychological comfort to the hundreds of
               | millions stuck in lockdown.
               | 
               | Living through corona has helped me to realize that
               | successful public health policy isn't just about giving
               | everyone the raw facts, it's also about managing people's
               | morale and trying to influence their behavior through
               | propaganda. I think the WHO tried to do this, but it
               | wasn't universally successful.
        
               | the8472 wrote:
               | Well, _mask early_ may not have been the best choice of
               | words then. Taiwan 's reaction would qualify as early.
               | And Taiwan is the thing that the WHO has been very
               | conspicuously be silent about even when asked explicitly.
               | 
               | https://twitter.com/fu7371/status/1262786140777545728
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | I agree. They did not advise to mask early on (airborne
               | transmission was still largely unproved around May, if I
               | remember correctly).
               | 
               | In my mind it was 'mask before the apparition of
               | symptoms', and I realise that my wording was not ideal in
               | the context.
        
               | ern wrote:
               | There was a concerted effort from government officials,
               | bandwagon-joining academics (aided by journalists) in the
               | West to downplay masking, and to ridicule and shame those
               | who wore masks. Here is a Time article from eary March
               | where it was described as the equivalent of "knocking on
               | wood". https://time.com/5794729/coronavirus-face-masks/
               | 
               | I am fairly certain that the US government reversed
               | itself on masks before the WHO did (Wikipedia says WHO
               | changed its advice in June).
               | 
               | Did it have to do with a lack of evidence, or was it a
               | cynical ploy to preserve mask stocks for medical
               | professionals? I recall it being the latter:
               | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-
               | face-...
        
               | Toutouxc wrote:
               | I remember that at the time when we were masking up in
               | the Czech Republic (first half of march, maybe..?), WHO
               | was actually talking a lot about the dangers of face
               | masks when used too eagerly and improperly. Or at least
               | that was what had gotten through our mainstream media.
        
               | ern wrote:
               | You are remembering correctly.
               | 
               | WHO changed its position on masks as late as June 2020.
               | https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200608/who-changes-
               | stance-...
               | 
               | The US government changed its stance by April:
               | https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-
               | health/2020/04/08/why...
               | 
               | In much of the world, people who wore masks were subject
               | to ridicule, especially on social media because of the
               | cynical public health messaging, which seemed to be about
               | preserving stocks of masks for healthcare workers by
               | telling the public that "masks don't work"
               | (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-
               | face-...).
               | 
               | The New York Times op-ed above, and efforts from the
               | Czech Republic made discussing public masking more
               | acceptable in the US, and then the rest of the world.
        
               | zepto wrote:
               | The WHO seemed to be doing everything it could to
               | _prevent_ people from talking the virus seriously at the
               | beginning.
               | 
               | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-
               | says...
        
           | malandrew wrote:
           | Re: masks, you need to remember that China pretty much shut
           | down all exports of PPE to keep it for domestic use. There
           | wasn't much more the rest of the world could have done to
           | follow that directive. Even those of us that did have some
           | stockpiled were asked to donate them to hospitals. Masks were
           | hard to come by for a while until a cottage industry popped
           | up to create second-rate masks.
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | I am actually very unhappy about this. I knew that masks
             | were reusable. The advice against reuse explains why they
             | are reusable under the right conditions.
             | 
             | But then I gave away my N95 mask stockpile (years old1) in
             | a moment of weakness because local medical personnel
             | appealed on the Internet. I regret it entirely because I
             | didn't want to do it, had concrete rational reasons not to
             | do it, and then I felt bad when they appealed and did it
             | anyway.
             | 
             | I really regret the emotional hijack. I'll never let it
             | happen again. I just know they used those masks once and
             | threw them away. Or maybe they used them zero times because
             | they couldn't tell if they're safe because they're from the
             | public. I really really regret it.
             | 
             | 1 Because CA sees wildfires everyone I know has boxes of
             | these. And old ones are not supposed to be used either, but
             | the only common failure mode over ten years isn't
             | filtration, it's the elastic, which was fine on mine.
        
         | methodsignature wrote:
         | Sure, if data from US would be enough to understand and fight
         | disease. Otherwise, you need to create some sort of world
         | health organization to share meaningful data and investigate
         | inside all country participant without the appearance of [or
         | actual] invasion of sovereignty.
         | 
         | Thus, we have the WHO. You wanna replace it, it's gonna take a
         | decade to get to another agreement if one even is made. Then it
         | will have its own set of issues. During a pandemic, seems
         | better to me to work with and hold accountable the one we
         | have... kinda like the WH is doing today.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | We don't need it for this. Intelligence organizations know
           | that biological threats like this _are_ intelligence
           | problems. They just didn 't think them likely or that the
           | sick guy would be our enemy.
           | 
           | However, now we know the adversary is truly an adversary.
           | China _will_ suppress information on pandemics started within
           | its borders.
           | 
           | The game has changed. You don't listen to China about whether
           | China is sick. You listen to Keyhole and your guys on the
           | ground.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | ZoomerCretin wrote:
         | >China will lie to the WHO and the WHO will protect it.
         | 
         | Do you have any reason to believe that this is true?
        
           | mamon wrote:
           | How about [1]? Corrupt organizaiton's loyalties typically lie
           | with those who sponsor it.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-
           | pled...
        
             | edmundsauto wrote:
             | This is a particularly generic bit of evidence, based on
             | cynicism with a bit of directional truth about incentives.
             | Do you have anything that draws this connection more
             | directly?
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | ganoushoreilly wrote:
           | The past 14 or so months?
        
           | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
           | Remember that time a high up WHO representative was asked
           | about COVID in Taiwan and he faked the video call freezing
           | and disconnected? Then remember when they got him back he was
           | again asked about Taiwan and said they had already discussed
           | China?
           | 
           | I remember thinking that the WHO wasn't what it seemed. Just
           | one small example of course.
        
         | f430 wrote:
         | > China will lie to the WHO and the WHO will protect it.
         | 
         | No idea why you are being downvoted for speaking the truth.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | Thanks. Site guidelines discourage comments like yours but I
           | was definitely rapidly getting downvoted till you said
           | something. Interesting stuff.
           | 
           | I don't think anything I said about the WHO is particularly
           | controversial considering the last year and their
           | disinformation campaign.
           | 
           | Anyway, bodies like the WHO can't be effective information
           | sources because you get in trouble if a novel contagious
           | disease started in your country. It has to lead to increased
           | money flow _to_ the diseased site at disease onset and
           | decreased money flow to sites likely to risk creating novel
           | disease.
           | 
           | That is, market pandemic bonds structured on a regional basis
           | will probably yield a better indicator than the WHO.
        
         | kergonath wrote:
         | There is no winning with you... Of course it cannot be too
         | powerful, because then nationalists would scream bloody murder
         | and refuse to have anything to do with it.
         | 
         | The WHO is a forum to coordinate strategy and exchange
         | information. Obviously, this requires a minimum of good faith,
         | which seems to be difficult for some countries (yes,
         | particularly dictatorships). But even then, it is better to
         | have them within, collaborating on their terms, than to leave
         | them outside, in which case it would be even harder to get any
         | information out of them.
         | 
         | So yes, China will lie, which will make life worse for
         | epidemiologists and governments across the globe, but not as
         | worse as it could be with China being entirely uncooperative.
         | 
         | It is not the world police, and it won't come anywhere and do
         | anything against the local government's wishes. Otherwise the
         | screams world be even louder, and justifiably so.
        
           | CyberRabbi wrote:
           | The WHO has shown itself to be practically useless. The
           | premise that sovereign nations need the WHO to cooperate is
           | false. Diplomacy and cooperation between nations was the norm
           | for many years prior to the WHO and will be the norm for many
           | years after the WHO's inevitable abandonment and demise.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | Do you have a concrete example of public health cooperation
             | amongst more than 2 nations before WWII? As far as I
             | remember, every country just covered its metaphorical arse
             | during the Spanish Flu pandemic, for example.
             | 
             | Of course, cooperation is always possible, but what would
             | be the extent of cooperation between say China, Russia, and
             | the US if a new treaty were signed today?
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | I don't think anyone wants the WHO to be _powerful_. They
           | want the WHO to be _honest_. And they aren 't. But that isn't
           | the WHO's fault or anyone working there. It's a property of
           | what the WHO is.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | > They want the WHO to be honest. And they aren't
             | 
             | They are working with what they have, which comes from
             | governments and governmental health agencies. If they don't
             | have information, they say 'we don't know', even though
             | everyone knows that the most likely scenario involves
             | emergence in China.
             | 
             | If one wants them to be able to coerce information out of
             | China, then by definition it would need to be more
             | powerful.
        
               | OminousWeapons wrote:
               | > They are working with what they have, which comes from
               | governments and governmental health agencies.
               | 
               | Their problem is not that their data is bad. Their
               | problem is that they are acting like a political entity
               | when they are supposed to be an impartial, data driven,
               | scientific organization. For example, the WHO railed
               | against common sense risk mitigation strategies such as
               | travel restrictions (i.e. isolate China) early on with
               | COVID when they were precisely what was needed to reduce
               | risk. They did so for political or monetary reasons
               | (closing borders harms economies). Xi latched on to this
               | and used it as justification to keep borders open.
               | Unsurprisingly, COVID subsequently spread rapidly between
               | China and countries that had maintained open borders with
               | China.
               | 
               | It is not the WHO's job to consider the economic
               | ramifications of their policy suggestions: that is the
               | job of politicians. It is their job to put forward
               | suggestions for how to limit the spread of disease
               | regardless of the impact to economies or governments.
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | Maybe the US shouldn't have abandoned our leadership
               | position then. Ofc China would fill that vacuum given the
               | opportunity.
        
               | OminousWeapons wrote:
               | Changing the political entity the WHO is beholden to
               | doesn't solve the problem.
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | Depends on your perspective, doesn't it?
        
               | salawat wrote:
               | If they are "working with what they have", then they
               | should not speak from a position of authority.
               | 
               | Authority is derived from something being something that
               | _everyone has_. In the past, achieving that goal
               | practically guaranteed authenticity to within a
               | comfortable enough quanta for everyone to work with.
               | 
               | With more advanced remote sensing equipment, the
               | decreased cost to publish, reach one can attain for
               | relatively little cost nowadays, that is no longer a
               | luxury we can all afford to continue to entertain. We
               | must all see with our own eyes. In the case that is
               | frustrated or made impossible, it should not a surprise
               | that the world acts as badly as it does.
               | 
               | This is why the collective lie is the most powerful
               | weapon fielded by modern civilization, and why there is
               | such a jockeying for control of what the definition of
               | allowable evidence is. Perception management is a weapon
               | of mass destruction, and should be called out for what it
               | is.
        
               | specialist wrote:
               | How's you do things, if you had a blank slate?
        
               | specialist wrote:
               | Agreed.
               | 
               | Government is just people trying to do triage, discern
               | signal from noise, coordination, move the ball forward...
               | with a bunch of other people.
               | 
               | People expect too much. It's amazing anything works at
               | all. We should all marvel at the progress we've somehow
               | achieved thus far.
               | 
               | While striving too do better, of course.
        
           | Frost1x wrote:
           | >But even then, it is better to have them within,
           | collaborating on their terms, than to leave them outside, in
           | which case it would be even harder to get any information out
           | of them.
           | 
           | I tend to agree with this sentiment, however I'm always on
           | the fence as to if acting on no new information is better
           | than acting on false or misleading information. If you can't
           | trust the source the data is almost worthless. Anyways,
           | that's for self reported information. Getting any direct
           | access to gather independent information I'd say is nearly
           | always valuable unless it's also targeted with disinformation
           | campaigns.
        
             | xupybd wrote:
             | The problem is that the WHO appears to have more legitimacy
             | and authority than they do. I have no problem with the WHO
             | existing and doing their job but we have to accept they are
             | bound by international politics. In developed countries we
             | should rely on local medical bodies first.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | That is definitely a problem; it tends to be seen either
               | as the saviour of humanity or as a globalist evil. It is
               | not perfect and not a substitute for proper public health
               | policies.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | > I'm always on the fence as to if acting on no new
             | information is better than acting on false or misleading
             | information.
             | 
             | Yeah, neither is good.
             | 
             | > If you can't trust the source the data is almost
             | worthless.
             | 
             | It's worse than worthless, because you are expecting
             | disinformation. Though to be fair you can also get
             | disinformation from sources you trust...
             | 
             | > Getting any direct access to gather independent
             | information I'd say is nearly always valuable unless it's
             | also targeted with disinformation campaigns.
             | 
             | That's why it's good to have inspectors. But even then,
             | there are limits. Inspectors usually cannot go anywhere
             | they please (otherwise nobody would sign that treaty), so
             | it's always possible to hide things from them.
             | 
             | Our governments have also the right to be critical when
             | reading reports, particularly based on data from
             | untrustworthy countries. We elect them to do their job, and
             | that job involves quite a bit of critical thinking when
             | dealing with other countries. They also have experts and
             | often scientific cooperation agreements that can complement
             | the WHO.
             | 
             | So yes, the WHO is imperfect. Perfecting it is quite
             | difficult without causing countries to drop out, and
             | countries should not be reliant on only one source anyway.
        
           | SurfingToad wrote:
           | WHO does seem like a bureaucratic mess, though. I read their
           | situation reports from the beginning of the pandemic, and was
           | surprised by how often they messed up. Links were wrong,
           | random files went down, and they were released at seemingly
           | random time points. Their press conferences were often hours
           | late. And Tedros Adhanom praised China to an honestly
           | embarrassing extent.
           | 
           | Before the pandemic, I thought the WHO was a relatively
           | capable organization. But from what I witnessed they just
           | seem like a prestige farm used as a stepping stone to more
           | lucrative careers.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | There is certainly quite some room for improvement.
        
         | toiletfuneral wrote:
         | right dude, china needs to be truthful just like the US has
         | been /s
        
         | addicted wrote:
         | You mean primary sources like the program that had US
         | scientists embedded in Chinese laboratories that Trump
         | dismantled in 2019?
         | 
         | Also, you clearly don't understand what the WHO does and how
         | critical it has been in the reduction and even eradication of
         | disease spread across the world over decades.
         | 
         | Further, the WHO, much like most multilateral organizations is
         | dependent on its member states for strength. When the most
         | powerful member state voluntarily and unilaterally chose to
         | disengage over the past half decade, it shouldn't be surprised
         | that the 2nd most powerful member state is calling the shots.
        
           | throwawaysea wrote:
           | Has the WHO really been that critical or are we ascribing
           | successes to them that are really the result of business and
           | technological innovation? At least in the recent decade or
           | two, they seem to consistently be bad at their job and mired
           | in politics. Even before the coronavirus there were issues
           | like their failures in managing the Ebola outbreak
           | (https://time.com/4123858/ebola-crisis-who-response-
           | failure/).
        
             | aaomidi wrote:
             | WHO is like your IT team. You only see their failures.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | Okay, I'm happy to amend to "The WHO is useless for
           | information on novel disease spread". That's what I intended
           | anyway but clearly did not constrain the sentence correctly.
           | 
           | Yeah, I'm sure as a multilateral platform for cooperation on
           | things that everyone wants done they're good.
           | 
           | But as an information source for novel epidemics, clearly we
           | should use our spy sats.
        
             | jlmorton wrote:
             | How do we use our spy satellites for information about an
             | epidemic?
             | 
             | I'm really struggling to understand what you're suggesting
             | here. I'm aware there is a whole cottage industry of
             | conspiracy theorists that point to satellite photos of busy
             | parking lots outside hospitals in Hubei Province as
             | evidence of earlier spread of Covid than has been
             | officially acknowledged. But there's no way to distinguish
             | a busy parking lot caused by a severe influenza outbreak
             | (which existed prior to Covid in Hubei) and a novel
             | pathogen.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | Using "spy sats" in a _pars pro toto_ sense. The
               | intelligence apparatus.
        
         | ssss11 wrote:
         | The WHO needs to be credible and trustworthy as an impartial
         | source of truth otherwise it is not required.
         | 
         | Unfortunately this particular topic is heavily politically-
         | loaded and CCP's track record of handling the virus leads the
         | common person to believe the WHO won't receive the full
         | information.
         | 
         | In this case the WHO's hands seem tied. How are they supposed
         | to fix that? (Genuine question, I would like the WHO to be able
         | to fulfill its role well and serve the global public good)
        
       | tebuevd wrote:
       | "Deep concerns" over Navalny's poisoning. "Deep concerns" over
       | Navalny's imprisonment. "Deep concerns" over the coup in Myanmar.
       | And now "deep concerns" over China refusing to provide data to
       | the WHO.
        
       | sjg007 wrote:
       | If it was lab created independent scientists would be able to
       | figure it out and there would be evidence that it was. But it
       | looks like there is not:
       | 
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
       | 
       | Now maybe the virus mutated from those initial 174 cases but
       | that's unlikely.
       | 
       | China does have a narrative that covid19 reinfections are coming
       | from imported frozen foods though so I'm not sure why they are
       | pushing that angle. It's probably an economic one and to save
       | face. But maybe it's real.. if it is we are screwed.
        
         | mgamache wrote:
         | Firstly that was in March. Secondly it discounts the serial
         | passage research which leaves little genetic evidence. All the
         | potential sources are unlikely, so why discount a lab accident?
        
         | jchook wrote:
         | I don't feel convinced by the argument. Maybe someone can help
         | me understand better.
         | 
         | - Virus infects human ACE2 suboptimally, therefore it's not lab
         | grown. Why? Because a virus engineer is always going for
         | maximizing spread rate? Seems plausible that less-than-ideal
         | infection rates of humans could be a feature rather than a bug.
         | 
         | - A polybasic clevage site was not seen in SARS-CoV... but it's
         | function is not known. Okay?
         | 
         | - The virus backbone was "0day" and not previously known to
         | researchers. Seems like a feature that a covert bio warfare lab
         | would desire.
         | 
         | The rest of the speculation seems to ride on the assumption
         | that the virus originated in China (despite evidence showing
         | otherwise[1][2]), and their discovery seems biased toward any
         | data to support that conclusion.
         | 
         | 1. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-
         | article/doi/10.1093/cid...
         | 
         | 2. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00716-2
        
           | loveistheanswer wrote:
           | >Why? Because a virus engineer is always going for maximizing
           | spread rate? Seems plausible that less-than-ideal infection
           | rates of humans could be a feature rather than a bug.
           | 
           | You are correct. There is both gain of function and loss of
           | function happening in these types of experiments.
           | 
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK285579/
        
       | tripletao wrote:
       | I don't know whether SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab. But if it
       | did, then not only is it probably not the first lab-origin
       | pandemic, but it's also not the first time the WHO initially
       | excluded that possibility.
       | 
       | The 1977 Russian Flu pandemic was genetically near-identical to a
       | strain from 1950, without the expected mutations that should have
       | appeared after 27 years of undetected circulation among humans or
       | animals. It's been widely suspected in mainstream literature to
       | have escaped from a research or vaccine manufacturing accident,
       | to the point that the NEJM casually wrote:
       | 
       | > The reemergence was probably an accidental release from a
       | laboratory source in the setting of waning population immunity to
       | H1 and N1 antigens
       | 
       | https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra0904322
       | 
       | But at the time, the WHO said:
       | 
       | > Laboratory contamination can be excluded because the
       | laboratories concerned either had never kept H1N1 virus or had
       | not worked with it for a long time.
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2395678/pdf/bul...
       | 
       | And it's absolutely bizarre to me that people are asking why the
       | origin even matters. After thousands of people died in Bhopal,
       | did it matter whether better chemical safety standards could have
       | prevented that? So with millions dead now, how could you possibly
       | not wonder whether our current standards for the sampling and
       | manipulation of poorly-understood pandemic-candidate viruses are
       | adequate?
        
       | jchook wrote:
       | Related: Scientists found SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in US blood
       | samples taken from December 2019 to January 2020
       | 
       | https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid...
       | 
       | Edit: removed incorrect conclusion
        
         | mgamache wrote:
         | That's not what is suggests: "These findings suggest that SARS-
         | CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to
         | January 19, 2020."
         | 
         | Without Chinese data the origin will remain a mystery.
        
         | kergonath wrote:
         | Studies have shown that it was circulating in France back in
         | November 2019. Not saying it originated there, there's no
         | indication of that, but there is a possibility that it had
         | already been spreading for some time before December 2019.
        
       | f430 wrote:
       | If the CCP have nothing to hide then why do they do everything
       | they possibly can to hide things from the rest of the world?
        
         | jeswin wrote:
         | The domestic narrative in China is that the virus is of foreign
         | origin, with the CCP press strongly suggesting that it's of US
         | origin - eg:[1].
         | 
         | The truth probably is that they know it originated (from
         | animals) in China, and don't want the WHO to officially reach
         | that conclusion. That's not particularly damaging to most
         | countries, but in a communist country with tightly controlled
         | information flow, the citizenry isn't shown a government making
         | mistakes.
         | 
         | 1: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183658.shtml
        
         | OminousWeapons wrote:
         | Politics. China is keen to not have the blame for COVID pinned
         | on them. Accepting the blame makes Xi look weak and inept. It
         | also opens up the door for countries to demand reparations.
         | Meanwhile, every other country (especially the US) is eager to
         | manufacture a narrative in which China eats the full blame for
         | this because it absolves their politicians of responsibility
         | for their complete mismanagement of the crisis. It sounds a lot
         | better to say "we had a bioweapon unleashed against us and
         | there was nothing we could do" than to say "this is just like
         | the last 10 times we had a pandemic and we still botched our
         | responses".
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | Surveillance and covert activity launched from the US and
         | Western Europe is not done openly. If a US government agency
         | discovered a US origin for covid-19 tomorrow, do you seriously
         | think you'd hear about it, or that it would ever be reported in
         | a mainstream media outlet? If it escaped from a US lab, they
         | knew it at the time, and had no way of stopping domestic
         | spread, do you think that US agencies would be above covertly
         | also releasing it in Wuhan as cover, and getting Chinese assets
         | to report about suspicious deaths on social media? China is
         | secretive about important things, and the West is secretive
         | about important things.
         | 
         | To be clear, these scenarios are entirely and spontaneously
         | made up, but they're also entirely _possible,_ and we 've
         | fallen into the trap of believing any old bullshit about China
         | simply because it's _possible_ , and reconciling our spreading
         | it and our obvious ignorance with racist "inscrutable Chinese"
         | tropes.
         | 
         | The reason we don't know more about China is not because
         | they're quiet, the reason we don't know about China is because
         | we ban and censor media coming from China (just as they do to
         | us, but moreso.) Somehow it's become mainstream to believe that
         | the public shouldn't know what the Chinese government thinks
         | (or the Russian government, or the Iranian government) and that
         | it's better to rely on rumor and retired generals.
        
       | ttz wrote:
       | First gen Chinese, grew up in NA. Have contact with relatives "on
       | the ground".
       | 
       | My own experience: Don't ever trust the Chinese government on
       | issues that could potentially involve the reputation of the
       | party. Note that I'm not saying don't trust what CCP says, ever
       | (sometimes they actually do good things) - just not on issues
       | that involve anything to do with how the world might perceive
       | them.
       | 
       | Which is exactly what this issue is about.
       | 
       | That's not to say we have _compelling_ evidence that this was a
       | lab virus, either. I think, for me, it 's a, "we don't know, but
       | I wouldn't be shocked at all if it was a lab virus".
        
         | getpolarized wrote:
         | Do we / did we even have the tech co be able to build this in a
         | lab? I don't think we do.
         | 
         | It MIGHT have been possible but Occam's Razor says it's more
         | plausible it evolved naturally and just jumped species.
         | 
         | FAR FAR FAR more plausible.
        
           | mancerayder wrote:
           | Why does it have to be "built"? It could have been isolated
           | from bats and studied, and an error / human mistake occurred
           | and it got out.
           | 
           | There's a rational reason to study this one, since SARS (1.0)
           | was a big deal in the early 2000's, and anyway why wouldn't
           | you study something you don't fully understand as a matter of
           | course. It's not a stretch if it was found that it leaked
           | from the lab by accident and a cover-up ensued.
        
             | ern wrote:
             | The problem is that an accidental release from a lab has
             | been deliberately conflated with the idea of a bioweapon
             | and labeled a conspiracy theory. Coupled with aggressive
             | propaganda efforts from China, and the fact that the Trump
             | Administration pushed the theory of a lab release (turning
             | the concept into political kryptonite for more than 50% of
             | the US population) its discussion has become verboten.
        
           | RegnisGnaw wrote:
           | In the the more common lab theory is that it was a natural
           | virus being studies in the lab. It escaped by accident.
           | 
           | China has had multiple SARS escape accidents.
        
           | bcrosby95 wrote:
           | "Building" it in a lab might be too scifi. But it's possible
           | they were experimenting with things.
           | 
           | E.g. "killer bees" are a product of human scientists trying
           | to engineer a better bee - the release was accidental. It's
           | not like we have the ability to genetically engineer a bee
           | from the ground up. But as a species humans have been
           | purposefully manipulating the traits of living things for
           | thousands of years.
        
           | andreilys wrote:
           | "Building" the virus is a sleight of hand that people use to
           | discredit the lab theory.
           | 
           | More likely than building the virus is studying it and
           | accelerating it's development.
           | 
           | Now I'm not saying that's what happened here however without
           | the cooperation of the CCP we'll have no idea what the truth
           | of the matter is
        
           | Amezarak wrote:
           | There was a great article in New York Magazine covering the
           | background here and the possibilities.
           | 
           | https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-
           | esca...
           | 
           | It turns out we've been doing "serial passage" research for
           | some time, which is where we leverage natural selection to do
           | our genetic engineering for us, rather than manually editing
           | genes. This is how we engineer viruses to jump species - on
           | purpose.
           | 
           | > _They did it using serial passaging: repeatedly dosing a
           | mixed solution of mouse cells and hamster cells with mouse-
           | hepatitis virus, while each time decreasing the number of
           | mouse cells and upping the concentration of hamster cells. At
           | first, predictably, the mouse-hepatitis virus couldn't do
           | much with the hamster cells, which were left almost free of
           | infection, floating in their world of fetal-calf serum. But
           | by the end of the experiment, after dozens of passages
           | through cell cultures, the virus had mutated: It had mastered
           | the trick of parasitizing an unfamiliar rodent._
           | 
           | In fact, "we" (meaning humanity) have even been experimenting
           | with serial passage into humans.
           | 
           | > _A few years later, in a further round of "interspecies
           | transfer" experimentation, Baric's scientists introduced
           | their mouse coronavirus into flasks that held a suspension of
           | African-green-monkey cells, human cells, and pig-testicle
           | cells. Then, in 2002, they announced something even more
           | impressive: They'd found a way to create a full-length
           | infectious clone of the entire mouse-hepatitis genome. Their
           | "infectious construct" replicated itself just like the real
           | thing, they wrote._
           | 
           | The whole article is really worth a read.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | You can, with your own body, the right drug regimen, and
           | starting with just garden variety TB and no skills
           | whatsoever, "build" XDR TB.
           | 
           | The general evidence is this is yet another reason why wet
           | markets are terrible for humanity, not that it was made in a
           | lab and got away. But you can build lots of things.
        
           | reducesuffering wrote:
           | Are you serious?
           | 
           | Occam's Razor says the only (non-vet) BSL4 lab in China,
           | studying bat coronaviruses, several miles from known first
           | virus reports, that has had multiple previous virus leaks,
           | with huge information shutdown by China for a year, is the
           | more plausible culprit.
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | _Do we / did we even have the tech co be able to build this
           | in a lab? I don't think we do._
           | 
           | A random virus, no. This one, we do.
           | 
           | We can't build a virus from scratch. But we can combine
           | pieces of different viruses to build a new one. The same
           | thing also happens naturally when an animal is sick with 2
           | viruses at once. If both get into the same cell, you get
           | various mixes created and sometimes a mixture will turn out
           | to be a better virus than either parent.
           | 
           | This virus looks like a combination of apparently unrelated
           | viruses. See https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-origins-
           | genome-analy... for confirmation. That happens to be
           | something that can happen either naturally or artificially.
           | 
           | Where conspiracy theorists get going is that a few years ago
           | there were papers from the lab near Wuhan suggesting that a
           | combination much like COVID-19's actual combination should be
           | particularly effective in humans. So this looks like an
           | extension of a known line of research from a lab involved in
           | military work. Combine that with the local coverup and you
           | can see how people go down the rabbit hole.
        
             | enchiridion wrote:
             | At that point it's just a theory, not a conspiracy theory
        
             | highstep wrote:
             | You really should cite those paper if you're going to offer
             | such significant information. your comment is worthless
             | otherwise.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | > You really should cite those paper if you're going to
               | offer such significant information.
               | 
               | Yes.
               | 
               | > your comment is worthless otherwise.
               | 
               | No.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | A good starting point is
               | https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-case-
               | is-bu....
               | 
               | See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4797993/
               | for one of their previous lines of research that look
               | similar to the actual COVID-19 virus.
        
             | Amezarak wrote:
             | I think what makes the Wuhan lab particularly suspicious is
             | that the lab was specifically doing work on the closest
             | known ancestor to the COVID-19 virus, which as far as we
             | know was only found naturally in bat caves more than a
             | thousand miles away.
             | 
             | I would discount the possibility that this was bioweapons
             | research - the US was funding serial passage and gain-of-
             | function research at this lab, of which the express purpose
             | is to make viruses more infectious in different species,
             | including humans.
             | 
             | At any rate, I don't think we can expect anything to be
             | definitively proven. It is absolutely possible that this
             | came out of the wild. But as the NY Magazine "Lab Leak"
             | article illustrates, we should probably be open to the idea
             | it came out of a lab. I also think we should reconsider
             | whether or not serial-passage and gain-of-function research
             | is something that can be ethically conducted. Anywhere.
        
         | powerapple wrote:
         | CCP has 90 million members. They have more opportunities
         | because government jobs would favor CCP members. They also have
         | responsibilities, when they are called when incidents, such as
         | flood, and covid 19 incidents. Dr. Li Wenliang is a CCP member
         | as well.
         | 
         | If you ask people from any developing countries, they would
         | express the same attitude (as you do for CCP) towards their own
         | government. The reason is that the officials and way of work is
         | stuck behind current standard, and that's why it is called
         | developing country.
         | 
         | Personally I don't care too much about if it was a lab virus or
         | something else, it becomes all political. Could it be better? I
         | don't think so. If it was developed in a bio-weapon lab, China
         | would have handled it well because it would be prepared.
        
         | Udik wrote:
         | > Don't ever trust the Chinese government on issues that could
         | potentially involve the reputation of the party
         | 
         | Seems this holds true for every government and party.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | Air Pistols and machine guns are both guns, which one are you
           | taking your chance against?
        
           | SllX wrote:
           | Most governments and political parties are not capable of or
           | willing to exercise the same information controls that the
           | CCP does. That doesn't make them trustworthy, but it does
           | make it easier to 1. Check their bullshit 2. Discuss their
           | bullshit freely and 3. Call them out on their bullshit
           | without being disappeared, only to turn up later and sign
           | false confessions/apologies/whatever the Party tells you to.
           | 
           | Having separate and distinct parties and competitive
           | elections also puts parties in the position of doing this to
           | each other using the levers of power available to them.
        
           | mc32 wrote:
           | The difference is there is no opposition to question the
           | official stance. So I'd say it's naive to imply the same
           | holds true everywhere. Even Russia and Turkey have vocal
           | dissidents.
        
             | sa-mao wrote:
             | Last time I checked Turkey is still democracy. A better
             | example would be Egypt or KSA or UAE.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | They're a democracy in the same way Russia is a
               | democracy.
        
               | edgyquant wrote:
               | Hmm I don't think so. They're autocratic for sure but
               | Turkey has been an autocratic democracy for a hundred
               | years so there is a culture of republicanism. I get what
               | you mean but Russia is so new to the voting thing that
               | the comparison isn't apt imo.
        
               | sa-mao wrote:
               | I wouldn't go as far as comparing Turkey to Russia. The
               | recent Turkish elections have shown that the ruling Party
               | in Turkey can lose key strongholds like Istanbul, this
               | never happens in Russia. In Egypt, most contenders to the
               | presidency are in prison now. Current president Al Sissi
               | (a bloody dictator won by 97%) Erdogan om the other hand
               | won by 53%. Putin by 73% while some major opposition
               | leaders barred from running.
               | 
               | Turkey is often unfairly criticised by western media,
               | which obviously prefers military dictators in power.
        
         | bsd44 wrote:
         | Well if you say so then it must be true. I mean this is
         | internet after all.
        
           | ttz wrote:
           | Not sure where in my post it postulates anything about
           | "truth". The entire point of the post is to say, we don't
           | know the truth, but in the balance of probabilities, I
           | wouldn't trust the CCP's version.
           | 
           | Did you even read what I wrote, or are you just knee jerking?
        
             | refenestrator wrote:
             | I can't see what you're responding to, but if people make
             | an accusation without evidence, the accused party's
             | trustworthiness is kind of irrelevant, right? Fine, you
             | don't trust their denial, but that doesn't affirmatively
             | prove anything either.
             | 
             | They could deny killing JFK, as well, and it shouldn't
             | change anything.
        
               | ttz wrote:
               | There's no accusation. Everything I said in my post is
               | _opinion_. Please read the original post, in its
               | entirety.
        
               | refenestrator wrote:
               | I said "people" are making accusations, didn't say you
               | were.
        
         | IIAOPSW wrote:
         | I just assume the ccp default mode is to cover up, even when
         | there is nothing to cover up. When legitimacy derives from
         | competence rather than from election, you better never have any
         | high profile incompetence.
        
           | duxup wrote:
           | That's been a problem even internally in China where local
           | government hides things from those up the chain and then
           | things get out of hand.
        
         | throwaway54095 wrote:
         | It's crazy that at this point we still keep with this delusion.
         | Of course this is a lab virus. This info is getting old:
         | 
         | https://project-evidence.github.io/
         | 
         | https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-origins-genome-analy...
         | 
         | Who was really behind this, and the whole history of it, is
         | something surely we won't know for know.
         | 
         | "When war is declared, truth is the first casualty"
        
       | hereforphone wrote:
       | "Deep concerns" don't change anything.
        
       | jjd33 wrote:
       | US also praises Saudi and Israeli rule of law and democratic
       | institutions.
       | 
       | North Korea seems a more trustworthy source of news than US
       | nowdays.
        
       | rossdavidh wrote:
       | So, perhaps there is a valid reason for China to refuse to give
       | the raw data on early COVID-19 victims to the WHO, but I have to
       | say, as a reader who's never been particularly impressed by the
       | possibility of it being lab-created, I have to say this is not a
       | good look for China.
        
         | loveistheanswer wrote:
         | >as a reader who's never been particularly impressed by the
         | possibility of it being lab-created
         | 
         | It need not be "lab-created". Most samples are taken from the
         | wild, and then has its evolution stimulated for research.
        
           | rossdavidh wrote:
           | True, I should have said that differently, something more
           | like "introduced to humanity from a lab sample". Important
           | distinction, not least because way more likely to be possible
           | given current technology. Valid point.
        
       | underseacables wrote:
       | It will take generations before China will recover from the Wuhan
       | virus outbreak. However it happened, because of the CCP
       | suppressing facts, people, and information, the harm to any
       | credibility the Chinese government had is gone for some time.
       | This could have been the China century, but for generations there
       | will always be that doubt.
        
         | lrem wrote:
         | Doesn't China need relatively the least recovery from this?
        
       | zug_zug wrote:
       | Cool, glad both sides of the aisle are willing to consider all
       | possible origins. It shouldn't be a political statement to want
       | the most accurate answer to a health-question, and maybe it won't
       | have to be anymore.
        
       | Fricken wrote:
       | What's weird is that a number of WHO investigation team members a
       | week ago said China was very transparent, cooperative and
       | helpful. Some have tweeted against the NYT who spun the WHO
       | team's accounts into anti-China propaganda.
       | 
       | https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/13605511085659...
       | 
       | https://mobile.twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817...
        
         | bigpumpkin wrote:
         | Would love to hear more from Thea Fischer, who the WSJ quotes
         | extensively.
        
       | throwawaysea wrote:
       | From https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00375-7
       | 
       | > Dwyer says that the team didn't see anything during its visits
       | to suggest a lab accident. "Now, whether we were shown
       | everything? You can never know. The group wasn't designed to go
       | and do a forensic examination of lab practice."
       | 
       | From https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/world/asia/china-who-
       | wuha...
       | 
       | > Even in the best of circumstances, a full inquiry could take
       | months, if not longer. The team must also navigate attempts by
       | China to politicize the inquiry.
       | 
       | And yet a few days ago the WHO pushed out a hasty judgment that
       | it was very unlikely the virus leaked from the lab. And in the
       | last day they've already started backtracking after intense
       | skepticism from the world - see
       | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/who-backs...
       | titled " WHO Backs Away From Outright Rejection of Virus Lab-Leak
       | Theory".
       | 
       | It also seems that now the virus may have been reported even
       | earlier than we thought. From
       | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/asia/china-world-he...:
       | 
       | > The Chinese scientists also acknowledged they had discovered
       | that 92 people were hospitalized in Wuhan as early as October
       | 2019 with symptoms such as fever and coughing. The Chinese
       | experts said they had found no trace of Covid-19 in those people,
       | but the tests were incomplete. The W.H.O. team members said more
       | research was needed.
       | 
       | Between the CCP's early suppression of journalism and social
       | media reporting on the virus, the fact that Taiwan was the first
       | to warn the world, China's repeated denials and delays in letting
       | an outside team to visit the site, and their purge of all the
       | coronavirus studies originating from this lab (https://www.the-
       | sun.com/news/2113876/covid-cover-up-china-wu...), there is very
       | little reason to trust the claim that a lab leak can be ruled
       | out. If anything it only seems more likely that a massive coverup
       | is in progress, and the WHO is the willing mouthpiece for it.
        
       | foolmeonce wrote:
       | I think the WHO did a fine job of writing it up. The US motive
       | for proving China is at fault is largely political diversion from
       | the US' mishandling, which would be mishandling no matter what
       | origin.
       | 
       | That China blocked the Who's efforts and the WHO disclosed this
       | is more relevant to future health policy than where this
       | particular outbreak started. (Do we really want the public health
       | system to tune to this specific scenario?)
        
         | zepto wrote:
         | > The US motive for proving China is at fault is largely
         | political diversion from the US' mishandling, which would be
         | mishandling no matter what origin.
         | 
         | Whether this is motivation is true or not has nothing to do
         | with whether the WHO report reflects reality.
        
           | foolmeonce wrote:
           | The WHO disclosed they were blocked. You can infer a bayesian
           | for a lab release of this specific virus. Now what does that
           | change about the next pandemic?
        
             | zepto wrote:
             | The lab leak is not the only hypothesis the CCP may be
             | seeking to avoid.
             | 
             | What they knew and how early they knew it is at least as
             | significant.
        
               | foolmeonce wrote:
               | So the fact that China didn't cooperate should affect
               | future health policy?
               | 
               | edit- make China/cooperate more explicit.
        
       | robomartin wrote:
       | > echoing concerns raised by the administration of former
       | President Donald Trump, who also moved to quit the WHO over the
       | issue
       | 
       | This is what gets me in politics: For all the well-deserved
       | vilification Trump was subjected to, it seems that every day we
       | are discovering some of the important policies and opinions they
       | issued were right on point. The dichotomy, it seems, is one of
       | vilification due to his often insolent and down-right ignorant
       | public style and presence rather than anything I would
       | characterize as substantive.
       | 
       | I have worked with people like that. People with sometimes deep
       | personality and social issues who do great work and excel
       | professionally. To take it in another direction, back when I was
       | actively mentoring high school FRC teams we got all kinds of
       | kids. There were kids on the Autism spectrum as well as
       | Asperger's. I can say that every single one of them was superb in
       | their team participation once I learned how to work with them
       | and, above all, accept that they didn't sound or behave like the
       | rest.
       | 
       | I am not making a parallel between Trump and these conditions.
       | Just saying that it is sometimes important to focus on substance
       | rather than theater.
       | 
       | Case in point:
       | 
       | I just got my second COVID vaccine yesterday. Shaking and feeling
       | like crap as I type this (it will last a few hours).
       | 
       | When Trump said vaccines were coming by the end of the year
       | everyone laughed at him. It was brutal. I remember watching CNN
       | as they tore him to pieces for daring to "not use science" and
       | raising our hopes in such ignorant ways.
       | 
       | Well, we are currently vaccinating at a rate of approximately 1.5
       | million people per day and this will go up.
       | 
       | Did Biden do this? Look, I am in manufacturing. Have been my
       | entire life. You don't produce 1.5 million per day of anything,
       | distribute and administer it with some sort of a "then a miracle
       | occurs" approach. Biden has only been in office a few days. There
       | is absolutely no way he could have any material impact on vaccine
       | delivery and administration during that time. These things have
       | to be planned and well-executed for months. Which means I got my
       | vaccine (and 1.5 million people are getting their vaccines)
       | because of the organization and planning the Trump administration
       | created and drove, likely back to March/April of last year. I'd
       | be interested in hearing from anyone --WITH MANUFACTURING
       | EXPERIENCE-- who thinks you can instantly go from 100K per day to
       | 1.5 million per day just because there's a new boss in town. I
       | mean, remember that we couldn't even produce masks and PPE at
       | scale in this country (or nearly any other country). In this
       | sense this should have been a massive wakeup call to the world,
       | not just the US.
       | 
       | This means that Biden's "100 million in 100 days" will be
       | achieved and exceeded --by Trump-- so long as people go get
       | vaccinated. And, without a doubt, Biden will take credit for 100%
       | of it. This is what I hate about politics.
       | 
       | There are other issues for which he was vilified that will turn
       | out to have been right non point. I won't dive into the details
       | here. Some of these include:
       | 
       | - The Paris climate accord (seriously, google the document, read
       | it and tell me how it will save the world...it's
       | nonsense...expensive nonsense)
       | 
       | - Tariffs on steel and aluminum. I am doing an aircraft design
       | project right now. I can buy US-made aluminum for roughly 25%
       | less than the cost of steel. That has never been the case in my
       | life. Of course, everyone in the metals industry wants Biden to
       | keep the tariffs in place. May I remind you Trump was called
       | "racist" and all kinds of other things for enacting this?
       | 
       | - The pipeline. Aside from the fact that tens of thousands of
       | jobs will be lost (a good friend of mine lost his and is facing
       | having to sell his house to survive). Everything around you
       | requires oil. It doesn't matter if it is made from plastics or
       | not. You don't think aluminum and steel require oil for
       | manufacturing and more? Do some research. The US achieved net
       | exporter status during Trump's years. That will surely go away.
       | Also, cost of goods (not just gasoline) was kept under check
       | because we controlled oil. Not any more. A friend in Arizona
       | tells me gasoline prices have doubled there. I regularly ship
       | large aerospace components in the thousands of pounds. Freight
       | prices are being impacted by this (my opinion) stupid move. Yes,
       | we all want everything clean. However, there's a fine line
       | between wishing something and being delusional about how and when
       | it can be achieved.
       | 
       | Anyhow, I'll stop here. There's more, but I need to go to the
       | couch and shake-off the vaccine side effects for a few hours. If
       | you disagree with the above, be honest enough to do the research
       | before forming an opinion. Above all, if you do not have
       | operational experience running a business, you need to understand
       | that you are not equipped to understand the many dynamics at play
       | here.
       | 
       | Simple example: If gas prices explode companies are going to have
       | to raise pay for their workers. Sounds good until you understand
       | at least two things. First, the worker doesn't get to use that
       | raise, it goes towards paying for oil. Second, that money could
       | have been used to hire more people and create jobs. In fact,
       | higher oil prices could destroy jobs in areas one might not
       | suspect.
       | 
       | No, everyone isn't going to go buy electric cars and trucks. Get
       | over it. This will take a long time. The infrastructure isn't
       | ready.
       | 
       | FYI: Fixing climate change by 2030/2050/2100? Delusional. We
       | can't do it. And yet we are going to burn resources promoting
       | pure bullshit instead of talking about how to adapt.
       | 
       | Politics sucks. I want honest exchange of ideas judged by their
       | merit, not through a political lens.
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | Forgive my ignorance but even if it was lab created, so what? I
       | don't really understand why it matters or not. Didn't the entire
       | world basically have a nearly 3 month heads up on this either
       | way?
        
         | jeswin wrote:
         | That depends. Most countries have ratified the biological
         | weapons treaty. If proven to be lab created, the onus will be
         | on them/whoever to prove that this was not part of a
         | weaponization effort. Not to mention, instant loss of goodwill
         | across the world.
         | 
         | Personally, I think the idea of this being lab created by China
         | is far fetched.
        
           | ern wrote:
           | I suspect that it's simpler than that. Having it accidentally
           | leak out of a lab facility where it was being studied for
           | legitimate scientific reasons would still be humiliating, and
           | devastating to Chin's soft-power.
        
           | phyalow wrote:
           | I used to think it was far fetched too, however applying
           | Occams Razor and taking a read of this incredibly well
           | researched article swayed me
           | https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-
           | esca... it would be worth your time.
        
             | enchiridion wrote:
             | Well that was a very long read. Yep I agree, very little
             | doubt it escaped from a lab. The arrogance of the corona
             | virus researchers is astounding.
        
         | pfortuny wrote:
         | It was supposedly practically impossible for that to happen so
         | at least someone should be held responsible.
         | 
         | Once a guy is dead, does it matter who killed him?
        
         | Frost1x wrote:
         | If it was lab created then you know some group intentionally or
         | through their negligence caused millions and millions of people
         | to die. They won't be held accountable unless China itself
         | would decide to do so (assuming in this hypothetical that it
         | was created by China of course).
         | 
         | If it was being developed as a biological weapon you would tend
         | to assume there's likely progress on how to defend against it
         | by those who created it so you could hope to leverage that work
         | to get a head start on vaccines and so forth. No one could
         | force China to hand that work over but they could certainly
         | pressure them in full force, including some of their allies
         | that may also be suffering.
         | 
         | Overall, there's really not much in terms of actionable
         | information to follow through with. It might help states target
         | spies to keep a closer eye on these scenarios and prompt a
         | better global response in the future.
        
           | avaldeso wrote:
           | > If it was lab created then you know some group
           | intentionally or through their negligence caused millions and
           | millions of people to die.
           | 
           | Just 2.4 millions as today. Not millions and millions. This
           | is not 1918 flu levels (yet).
        
           | christkv wrote:
           | I would think that if you wanted to create a bio weapon then
           | this virus is perfect. Not super lethal but crates a high
           | level of chaos and economic damage. An economical warfare big
        
         | LMYahooTFY wrote:
         | I think there are social/political ramifications to seriously
         | consider.
         | 
         | Similar to if we had a sudden large radiation hazard and it was
         | unclear if it was some spontaneously emerging phenomenon with
         | essentially no direct human cause, or a power plant/enrichment
         | facility/warhead manufacturer/etc.
         | 
         | And beyond that, there are supposedly methods of (even purely
         | scientifically motivated) research that would involve
         | engineering a virus with certain properties that also happen to
         | make it extraordinarily deadly.
         | 
         | Ethics committees determine all sorts of experiments to be
         | prohibitively unethical, and a virus with particularly deadly
         | design should certainly be held under such scrutiny.
        
           | underseacables wrote:
           | The Chinese response to international concerns over the Wuhan
           | virus is very similar to the Soviet Unions response to the
           | same concern over a sudden spike in nuclear radiation.
           | There's something strange about a government that works so
           | hard to stifle all questions and dissent. It's like they
           | don't realize the act of oppression of inquiry raises the
           | level of inquiry even more.
        
             | reducesuffering wrote:
             | I'm sure they realize it, but what's the alternative for
             | them?
             | 
             | "Yes, come right in, here's our primary source data
             | collected, it concludes that Chernobyl (or WIV lab leak)
             | did happen..."
        
         | Supermancho wrote:
         | You are correct. It makes no difference. This has been an
         | exercise in "bad things will happen" used to reform political
         | views and stoke sabre rattling. China is a bad actor in many
         | arenas, just as the US is a bad actor in many arenas. The idea
         | that any country releases some lab-grown bug will never be
         | politically admitted, so the theory is irrelevant.
         | 
         | I tend to think China is a danger to humanity at-large, but I
         | could be wrong. These specific events have not surprised me
         | (new virus, spread, etc) but the sheer amount of incredulity at
         | the behavior of countries (China, US, etc) is disheartening.
        
           | cbnotfromthere wrote:
           | "China is a bad actor in many arenas, just as the US is a bad
           | actor in many arenas. "
           | 
           | Equating the US with China is nothing but a form of
           | whataboutism. It's like equating USSR with USA. Or flu with
           | ebola.
        
           | LMYahooTFY wrote:
           | While the points you make may be true, they do not
           | conclusively show that it makes no difference. See my
           | response to GP.
        
         | LatteLazy wrote:
         | One of most interesting facets of this to me is that China have
         | created multiple zoonotic diseases in the last few years and
         | caused serious loss of life and economic damage and no one
         | seems to want to say anything!?
        
         | throwawaysea wrote:
         | It's not necessarily lab created but it could have been leaked
         | from a lab (which studies coronaviruses and bats) even if it
         | wasn't artificial. It matters because it lays more blame on
         | China and creates the political expediency needed for
         | sanctions. I do agree that there should be consequences for the
         | Chinese government regardless of whether the virus was a leak
         | or not (or artificial or not), and that it isn't dependent on
         | such investigations. My reason is that the CCP suppressed early
         | reports of the virus and delayed the entire world's response.
         | They also did not shut down their airports for months and
         | exported the virus to the rest of us as a result.
        
           | pbhjpbhj wrote:
           | How does that help the World fight the pandemic? All that
           | does is provide a reason for political actions, that people
           | already want to take, to stem Chinese power and maintain USA
           | imperialism.
           | 
           | If a country choose not to shut its airports doesn't mean
           | your country has to accept incoming flights. If a country
           | thinks people are coming in with a pandemic disease and don't
           | shut the entry points (ports/airports) that's on that
           | country's leadership.
        
           | Udik wrote:
           | > It's not necessarily lab created but it could have been
           | leaked from a lab (which studies coronaviruses and bats) even
           | if it wasn't artificial.
           | 
           | I've heard this multiple times as a reasonable possibility,
           | and yet it seems absurd if you think about it: are you trying
           | to accuse someone of leaking into the environment a virus
           | that actually _comes_ from the environment? And how do you
           | even prove something like that?
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | The US and Western Europe find it very important to find any
         | way to increase anti-China sentiment. Whether or not it is
         | actually meaningful in a practical sense, accusing China of
         | creating and spreading the virus adds to the ancient enemy
         | status that it shares with Russia, and justifies large domestic
         | expenditures.
         | 
         | The public justification for the giant US nuclear arsenal was
         | the entirely fictional "missile gap," thereby creating an
         | actual missile gap in the other direction that the Soviets
         | thought they had to close. I'm not saying that "If new
         | coronaviruses are being cooked up in Wuhan, we'd be negligent
         | if we weren't funding development of our own" thought processes
         | will necessarily become ascendant, but "China is a existential
         | threat to the world, and any expenditure is justified in order
         | to defeat it" is absolutely common.
        
         | katbyte wrote:
         | If it was leaked in oct that's far earlier then it making it
         | out into general knowledge in Ja. But granted that doesn't mean
         | the world would have acted, still took most of it till like
         | March to do anything about it lol
        
           | rossdavidh wrote:
           | serious vaccine work, as I understand it, began in Jan. If it
           | had started in October 2019, things would be very different
           | right now.
        
             | graeme wrote:
             | Not necessarily. The vaccine design work took all of a day,
             | at least for the mrna vaccines.
             | 
             | You could have frontloaded manufacturing by commissioning
             | companies to produce doses while waiting for trials. But we
             | didn't do that with the knowledge we had, so unclear
             | earlier knowledge would have worked.
             | 
             | Trials were the big bottleneck and for that you need
             | infected patients. So I guess if they had got a vaccine to
             | wuhan for trials it would have sped things up, but not
             | clear it could have been used in trials there before this
             | all seemed serious.
        
       | mgamache wrote:
       | If anyone is tempted to associate 'lab leak' with xenophobia or
       | anti-Chinese sentiment, please remember the WIV lab was in
       | partnership with the U.S. NIH (National Institutes of Health).
       | 
       | https://www.biospace.com/article/1nih-awards-ecohealth-allia...
        
         | loveistheanswer wrote:
         | Also noteworthy is Dr. Fauci has been a long time proponent and
         | sponsor of gain of function experiments as head of the NIAID,
         | the infectious diseases arm of the NIH.[1]
         | 
         | After a few different US lab leaks involving anthrax, smallpox,
         | and avian flu in 2014 the Obama administration put a ban on the
         | fuding of gain of function research.[2]
         | 
         | The ban was eventually overturned in 2018.[3]
         | 
         | [1]https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-flu-virus-risk-
         | wor...
         | 
         | [2]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-anthrax-labs-
         | analysis...
         | 
         | [3]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3
         | ...
        
           | justnotworthit wrote:
           | I don't get why supporters of GoF experiments with CoV in
           | Wuhan aren't shouting from the rooftops that (1) They were
           | right to predict the danger of a CoV originating from that
           | area of the world and that (2) their research, years in the
           | making, is thankfully (despite opposition's cries of danger)
           | here to protect us. Instead, I can't find anything about the
           | latest years of their research.
        
             | mgamache wrote:
             | good point. the silence is deafening. They should be
             | lobbying for _more money_...
        
       | esja wrote:
       | I am yet to see a single piece of evidence which rules out the
       | lab leak hypothesis. Meanwhile the circumstantial evidence in
       | favour of that hypothesis (including China's behaviour) continues
       | to pile up. We may never discover the truth, but I really hope we
       | do.
        
         | pgodzin wrote:
         | What evidence could ever rule it out?
        
           | tripletao wrote:
           | Identification of an animal host? For MERS-CoV, that host
           | (camels) was identified in a little more than a year, and
           | genetic analysis shows multiple spillovers:
           | 
           | https://elifesciences.org/articles/31257
           | 
           | For the original SARS, it's palm civets, identified in less
           | than a year. (The link to bats wasn't discovered until much
           | later, by Shi Zhengli; but the intermediate host is enough to
           | feel pretty confident it's natural-origin.)
           | 
           | For SARS-CoV-2, we're still waiting for that intermediate
           | host. That's the significance of the early pangolin papers;
           | but as Alina Chan and many others have noted, those papers
           | have significant data quality issues, and even the Chinese
           | have pretty much abandoned the pangolins.
           | 
           | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.07.184374v1
        
         | kjakm wrote:
         | >> Meanwhile the circumstantial evidence in favour of that
         | hypothesis (including China's behaviour) continues to pile up.
         | 
         | What circumstantial evidence?
        
           | tripletao wrote:
           | Alina Chan's WSJ article is a decent popular summary,
           | 
           | https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-needs-a-real-
           | investig...
           | 
           | https://archive.is/R6kwN
           | 
           | There's also been a string of academic preprints and
           | articles, like
           | 
           | https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2102/2102.03910.pdf
           | 
           | The authors tend to be kind of fringe, not surprisingly given
           | the reputational cost (and given that if a lab origin is ever
           | confirmed, many of the techniques that top researchers have
           | spent their lives mastering will probably become illegal). A
           | lot of very senior virologists are on the record as open to
           | the possibility of a lab escape, though, for example:
           | 
           | > Baric said he still thought the virus came from bats in
           | southern China, perhaps directly, or possibly via an
           | intermediate host, although the smuggled pangolins, in his
           | view, were a red herring. The disease evolved in humans over
           | time without being noticed, he suspected, becoming gradually
           | more infectious, and eventually a person carried it to Wuhan
           | "and the pandemic took off." Then he said, "Can you rule out
           | a laboratory escape? The answer in this case is probably
           | not."
           | 
           | https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-
           | esca...
           | 
           | I don't recommend that article in general; the author uses
           | his talents as a novelist to paint a more vivid picture than
           | I believe the evidence justifies. I do trust him to
           | faithfully print the quote, though.
        
       | dm319 wrote:
       | This is worth a read:
       | 
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
        
         | godelmachine wrote:
         | >>*Although the evidence shows that SARS- CoV-2 is not a
         | purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to
         | prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described
         | here.*
         | 
         | From the conclusion section
        
           | 2bitencryption wrote:
           | my understanding of primitive/early vaccines is this:
           | 
           | 1. take a virus that is highly adapted to humans, and inject
           | it in another animal (like a rabbit)
           | 
           | 2. the virus will cause a very low-grade infection in the
           | rabbit, since the virus is adapted to humans, not rabbits -
           | but it will still be a non-zero level of effectiveness
           | 
           | 3. at the peak level of the rabbit's low-grade infection, the
           | mutants of the virus that are more effective against rabbits
           | will be expressed more than any others, and replicate
           | themselves more than any other mutant
           | 
           | 4. capture these variants from the rabbit, and inject them
           | into another rabbit.
           | 
           | 5. step 3 and 4 repeat as the virus becomes less human-
           | specific and more rabbit-specific
           | 
           | 6. if all goes well, you will have transformed the human-
           | effective virus into a rabbit-effective virus. But the virus
           | still has enough of the same characteristics that it will
           | provoke an immune response in humans that will also protect
           | against the human-specific variant
           | 
           | I imagine if you wanted to do the _opposite_ , and craft a
           | virus that is _more_ effective against humans instead of
           | less, you would simply follow the steps in reverse.
           | 
           | Since these steps are so simple, and require no direct
           | modification of the genetic material (you simply encourage it
           | to drift in a certain direction) it seems like it would be
           | hard to tell which viruses were manipulated in this way.
        
         | mgamache wrote:
         | This was from early last year and really focuses on Pangolins
         | which have been downgraded as a zoonotic source. Serial Passage
         | is the most likely source (as all sources are low probability).
        
           | f430 wrote:
           | The thing is they claimed it originated from the seafood
           | market yet couple blocks across the street there was a BS4
           | bio lab literally working with the materials.
           | 
           | It's amazing so many people will just take CCP's narrative at
           | face value, there are still many that think it came from the
           | seafood market.
           | 
           | Nature has lied to protect the CCP before:
           | 
           | https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-
           | springer...
        
             | agumonkey wrote:
             | I don't know what happened obviously, and I'm not really
             | wishing for any theory to win (lab or nature). But I've
             | read Chinese virology labs were made in partnership with
             | France and french experts/teachers said many safety
             | protocols were not fully applied.
        
             | ZoomerCretin wrote:
             | >Nature has lied to protect the CCP before:
             | 
             | >https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-
             | springer...
             | 
             | Your article does not support your claim. "One of the
             | world's largest academic publishers was criticized on
             | Wednesday for bowing to pressure from the Chinese
             | government to block access to hundreds of articles on its
             | Chinese website."
        
             | mgamache wrote:
             | In the first few weeks the main source of info was the CCP
             | and well known virologists. Both have conflicts of
             | interest.
        
         | f430 wrote:
         | We simply don't know the author's connection to the CCP. Why
         | not share that publicly as to add credibility to their claims?
         | 
         | Not the first time Nature was caught covering for the CCP:
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-springer...
         | 
         | Why are all the criticisms of CCP downvoted and flagged on HN?
        
           | ZoomerCretin wrote:
           | This is supposed to be a scientifically-literate forum. Ad
           | hominem dismissal of good data/analysis because it _could_
           | come from a source you 've been taught to dislike isn't
           | conducive to good discussion. If you're curious about the
           | authors' links, they are in the article you didn't read.
        
           | oasisbob wrote:
           | Conspiracy theories regarding genetically engineered viruses
           | don't do well here.
        
             | vixen99 wrote:
             | Much work has been done on genetically engineering viruses
             | and that includes coronoviruses. We certainly know very
             | well how to do it for one purpose or another. This is a
             | fact not a theory. Currently it's impossible to say
             | Covid-19 resulted, maybe in part, from this activity _or
             | not_. Terrible not to know something for a fact but that 's
             | how it is. Call a particular view a conspiracy theory if
             | you like but that's just rhetoric and takes us not a step
             | further towards a definitive answer.
        
             | mgamache wrote:
             | You should understand what Serial Passage and Gain of
             | Function is. It's using natural selection in a lab and not
             | easily detected. It was also a type of research that was
             | being done at that lab. The paper addresses Serial Passage
             | in the last part.
        
       | throwaway4good wrote:
       | Boo. The Americans need to shut up or actual provide evidence for
       | their outrageous claim that the virus escaped from a lab.
        
         | jchook wrote:
         | I've seen papers from several scientists who believe that SARS-
         | CoV-2 had laboratory origins. You can find them on Google
         | Scholar or similar search engines, but you cannot post them to
         | HN or Twitter because they get instantly censored.
         | 
         | The evidence against laboratory origins seems flimsy to me as
         | well. The most cited paper says because the virus infects
         | humans suboptimally it must not be lab grown in human cells.
         | Also they examined the "only" 3 relevant features of the virus
         | and determined they evolved naturally from other SARS strains.
         | Not exactly convincing.
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | Why would you think that we would have to do that? It's only
         | people who are being threatened that have to talk their way out
         | of it. It's not only easy to casually threaten China, it's
         | required to avoid charges of being a secret agent sent to
         | destroy American unity.
        
         | dempseye wrote:
         | I don't know either way, but the claim that the virus escaped
         | from a lab is hardly outrageous. It is well within the sphere
         | of possibilities that are worth examining. Lab leaks have
         | happened before.
        
       | mc32 wrote:
       | Beside the danger of adding function to an infectious virus, the
       | biggest danger is the complete politicization of the virus. The
       | WHO has changed their tune back and forth, often vehemently with
       | little to back up its position. In that light the US should
       | consider withdrawing completely from this body.
        
         | mgamache wrote:
         | The US just rejoined after Biden reversed Trumps withdrawal.
        
           | mgamache wrote:
           | Here's one article about the Who reversal:
           | 
           | "The scientific community applauded President Joe Biden's
           | decision to rejoin the World Health Organization and other
           | global efforts designed to stop and prevent COVID-19."
           | 
           | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/22/scient.
           | ..
        
             | bpodgursky wrote:
             | HN is reflexive with downvotes. It's not personal.
             | 
             | A response of "Trump did thing, Biden undid thing" after a
             | comment of "US should do thing" can be interpreted as
             | support of Trump and criticism of Biden.
             | 
             | This is not a good thing to be true. Thus, it is downvoted.
        
               | mgamache wrote:
               | you're right... I updated the post to remove the comment.
        
         | addicted wrote:
         | The WHO is not an organization with a military or the power to
         | enforce anything. It's completely at the mercy of the member
         | states to pressure each other to allow it to do its job.
         | 
         | The reality is that it was up to the member states to pressure
         | China in early 2020 to release the information they should have
         | shared. And as the only member state as large or larger than
         | China, this was the US's job. At the time, however, the Trump
         | administration was entirely focused on closing a trade deal
         | with China that Trump could use in his election campaign. Which
         | is why the US said nothing which prevented the WHO from getting
         | the support they needed to investigate the origins of the
         | pandemic.
         | 
         | For the first few months the US, and especially Trump, was
         | basically going on about how well Xi Jinping was handling
         | everything.
        
           | addicted wrote:
           | This is what Trump was saying February of last year instead
           | of giving WHO the support that it needed to push China.
           | 
           | https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-praises-xi-for-
           | han...
           | 
           | It's precisely the vacuum created by the US's voluntary
           | defanging of itself in multilateral institutions that has
           | allowed China to resist these institutions and even take
           | control of some of them. The answer to that isn't to continue
           | unilaterally reducing its own power.
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | What is withdrawal going to do? Why not work to get it right
         | instead?
        
           | mc32 wrote:
           | Conversely what good is it belonging to an organization which
           | has no agency and does whatever it's told to do?
           | 
           | Better form a new org that is apolitical and concerns itself
           | with promulgating health and disease prevention rather than
           | some political agenda?
        
             | brundolf wrote:
             | That's literally the whole point of the WHO. Leaving it
             | would mean either a) starting a "new" version and asking
             | all the same people to join it (which seems to be what
             | you're suggesting; what purpose would that serve?) or b)
             | having no forum at all for global coordination over health
             | crises.
        
             | aaomidi wrote:
             | Because WHO does so much more than finding out where a
             | disease started.
        
             | danbolt wrote:
             | What do you feel an apolitical organization would look like
             | on the world stage?
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | There is no such thing as an apolitical organisation.
             | That's the definition of politics.
             | 
             | It is not a police, it has no coercive power. The reason is
             | obvious if you think more than 10 seconds about how to get
             | sovereign governments to cooperate on public health
             | matters.
             | 
             | What would be your ideal organisation? One subservient to
             | the American government? Or do you want it to be a world
             | government above sovereign states? How do you think it
             | would fly?
        
         | kergonath wrote:
         | Of course it has! Our knowledge of the virus and disease has
         | changed quite a lot since December 2019. Initially we had no
         | idea about the transmission rate, survivability in air or on
         | surfaces, contact transmission, transmission to other species,
         | etc. What should they have done?
         | 
         | If anything they were cautious before February 2020.
        
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