[HN Gopher] Talent Is Largely a Myth
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Talent Is Largely a Myth
        
       Author : rayrey
       Score  : 50 points
       Date   : 2021-02-07 21:40 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (blog.nukemberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (blog.nukemberg.com)
        
       | elric wrote:
       | I think that what people perceive as "talent" is for a large part
       | just intrinsic motivation which leads to an "early start". Many
       | of us got early starts in computers because we were interested in
       | them and were intrinsically motivated. By the time we went to
       | college, we already had a decade of experience under our belts.
       | That experience is obviously flawed, and you can't compare it
       | with a decade of "real" experience, but it's still a head start.
       | This can make you seem really talented in the eyes of people who
       | have yet to start making the mistakes you made 10 years ago. Does
       | that mean you'll have this edge forever? Of course not.
       | 
       | And sure, there's a factor of luck and physical/mental ability
       | involved as well, but those aren't really the mysterious part of
       | "talent".
        
       | mikesabbagh wrote:
       | it depends on the position you are hiring for. Is it a position
       | that needs solving problems with new technology? or is it to
       | maintain a 5 years old application used by 1 million paying
       | customer? each needs a different personality and maybe a
       | different type of talent
        
       | Guest42 wrote:
       | I think a more accurate title would be something along the lines
       | of "Hiring the most talented is a difficult prospect."
        
       | rmah wrote:
       | It feels to me like the article just sets up a bunch of straw men
       | to knock down.
       | 
       | To start with, when most companies say "we only hire top 1%
       | talent" in the context of software development, they don't really
       | mean talent as some sort innate potential, they mostly just mean
       | skill (combined with a bit of potential to become even more
       | skilled).
       | 
       | Further, the idea that most people think talent is one
       | dimensional, static and linear is just mystifying to me. Does
       | anyone actually thinks this? He takes a literal view of "the 1%"
       | and extrapolates that to derive these assumptions. But no one
       | means that _literally_ , it's just a phrase meant to invoke the
       | idea that they are are highly selective how they hire. That this
       | has to be explained is... odd.
       | 
       | The author then repeatedly carps on about how "talent" cannot be
       | quantified and then, somehow, thinks this means that the
       | interview process is meaningless. Um, that skill cannot be
       | quantified is WHY we have the (admittedly flawed) interview
       | process.
       | 
       |  _If all of these prevalent assumptions about talent are wrong,
       | what does it say about our hiring and management practices?_
       | 
       | It doesn't say anything because assumptions are false. And even
       | if talent can be "developed" (here I think he means ability to
       | learn how to improve skills faster), everyone knows the hiring
       | process is flawed. Because, you know, both people and roles are
       | complex and multi-facetted. So hiring is hard. Hopefully
       | practices will improve to become better, but I'm not holding my
       | breath.
        
       | pawelmi wrote:
       | There is a great book by Carol Dweck - Minset. She distinguishes
       | two types of minset in people. Fixed - who believe their
       | capabilities are static and even when they have some success they
       | are afraid to do more in order to not ruin the impression; and
       | growth mindset - who believe almost everything can be developed
       | and are not afraid to learn and try. There is a lot of research
       | and interesting examples from businesses, social and sport in the
       | book on the topic of thise different understandings of talent.
        
         | pawelmi wrote:
         | Not to mention that success is often fair dose of luck. But if
         | you know it and try multiple times while correcting your
         | mistakes, the chance is only increasing.
        
       | RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote:
       | I think denial of differences in people's mental abilities is as
       | unscientific as climate change denial, and both come from the
       | same place where scientific evidence that a person thinks weakens
       | their world view is rejected.
        
         | jchw wrote:
         | Presenting no significant evidence, I have no idea why this
         | position is more scientific than the opposite position (that
         | most of the time, "talent" is actually just thousands of hours
         | of work.)
        
           | nasalgoat wrote:
           | I'm fairly confident that there's more to it than just
           | studying something for a long time. Some people simply never
           | grasp a concept despite years of study.
        
             | dkdk8283 wrote:
             | A key factor is confidence, anecdotally speaking. The
             | difference is leader vs follower. The same psychological
             | principles apply. Tech isn't special.
        
           | Blahah wrote:
           | Talent is at least partly the ability and propensity to put
           | in thousands of hours of dedicated work. People differ in
           | complex, often stochastic, ways in their specific learned and
           | genetic propensities to be good at things or motivated to do
           | them.
        
           | staticautomatic wrote:
           | Because it accounts for the relationship between intelligence
           | and talent.
        
           | lazyasciiart wrote:
           | Probably because everyone knows people who "show talent"
           | without having put in thousands of hours of work, and aren't
           | aware of anyone who put in that work without having
           | identified as having talent first.
        
           | atleta wrote:
           | Most of the time, maybe. But it depends on what you are
           | measuring against (even if this is just anecdotic). My guess
           | is that your intuition comes from what you see around
           | yourself or even in the industry in general with
           | accomplished, successful developers: they have worked a lot.
           | But that doesn't mean that they don't have talent, i.e. what
           | GP says, special abilities that they were born with (and/or
           | acquired during early childhood).
           | 
           | The fact that what we see is that hard work is required, is
           | just the result of competition and survivorship bias. Those,
           | who are not talented enough will leave the field, or never
           | even get in. If we are talking about 'top' developers at
           | 'top' companies, then it's essentially the same. They all
           | work hard, but you ignore those who work hard but don't get
           | there.
           | 
           | Indeed it does seem like, as GP says, at least some mental
           | abilities do have both genetic and environmental factors (and
           | those environmental factors mostly count around being born
           | and in childhood). And by the time you are a grown up
           | professional, those are basically both circumstances you
           | can't do anything about. So you can call them talent.
           | 
           | It's enough if you think about intelligence, or to be more
           | specific, IQ. It's demonstrated that it behaves like I
           | described above. It has a hereditary and an environmental
           | component, it stabilizes pretty early (relative to becoming a
           | working professional) and it remains a stable measure during
           | your life _relative to your cohort_. We also know that higher
           | IQ correlates with better problem solving ability which is an
           | important skill if you want to be successful in the field.
           | 
           | Fun fact, the blog post mentions Laszlo Polgar (a fellow
           | Hungarian), father and trainer of Judit Polgar the strongest
           | female chess player (wrt Elo points) so far. He had the idea
           | that given good enough education any child can become a
           | prodigy (and thus 'talent' doesn't exist). And to prove
           | himself he started experimenting with his own children, his
           | three daughters. All of them would become professional and
           | accomplished chess players (this was the field Polgar chose
           | to prove his theory). But of course one can argue that being
           | a psychologist he himself must have had above average
           | intelligence which his children could have inherited. So a
           | sample size of 3 is not a strong argument besides the
           | original claim, but of course it's a strong demonstration
           | that at least early education matters a lot. (His 3 children
           | has all learned and trained chess from a very early
           | childhood, IIRC from around the age of 3, and were all home
           | schooled.)
           | 
           | Now why did I say fun fact? Because this at the same time
           | underlies what I said above: that early childhood effects
           | count a lot and that later you can't do much about it. Also,
           | if you asked Judit Polgar why Magnus Carlsen is a better
           | player than she was at her best (2882 vs 2735) I doubt she'd
           | say "well, he just worked harder and put in more hours".
           | 
           | See: [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptitude [2] https://e
           | n.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient#Reliabil... [3]
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judit_Polg%C3%A1r
        
         | sebmellen wrote:
         | I don't think this article denies that people have different
         | mental abilities, just that "talent" is a vague and hard to
         | quantify term (as evidenced by how -- as mentioned in the
         | article -- nearly every SV company is convinced they hire the
         | top 1% of developers).
        
           | antidocker wrote:
           | SV companies put more weight to design ...
        
       | u678u wrote:
       | You need motivation as well as talent. I have a friend who's one
       | of the smartest guys I know, he has incredible side projects but
       | at work does the bare minimum. Meanwhile I know guys that dont
       | have talent but can grind, can code well but just steady output,
       | can hit deadlines and are generally motivated.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | > I have a friend who's one of the smartest guys I know, he has
         | incredible side projects but at work does the bare minimum.
         | 
         | Sounds like he's not interested in what your job entails.
         | Perhaps he should find a job that does something closer to his
         | interests, or perhaps better, kick off a startup that relates
         | to his passions.
         | 
         | For many people, it's hard to be motivated to do something
         | you're not into. Conditions like ADHD can exacerbate this.
         | 
         | You only get one life. Have an honest conversation with him and
         | ask what he really wants to do with it.
        
           | u678u wrote:
           | He's my friend not my colleague. He really doesn't care about
           | money, I think he probably would rather not have it. I should
           | have added his side projects are just every now and again,
           | most of the time he hangs out with friends.
        
           | kbenson wrote:
           | There are many, _many_ people in all sorts of professions
           | that work to pay the bills and have interesting hobbies they
           | are devoted to and exceed at. Sometimes this is because they
           | haven 't found a way to be paid for their hobby, other times
           | it's because they don't want to.
           | 
           | Sometimes the fact that there is no pressure is one of the
           | things that makes it enjoyable, and people are rightly
           | resistant to change that.
        
       | daniel_iversen wrote:
       | The article makes some decent points but I think the premise is
       | altogether wrong. It's always good to remind ourselves that
       | hiring the "right" people is actually less (but not by a lot,)
       | about raw talent as it is cultural fit, values alignment, being
       | motivated by what they do (hopeful a combination of personal
       | growth, contributing to something meaningful, feeling you're
       | "goos" at your job, and money) and clicking with the rest of the
       | team(s). In fact, I've seen a lot of extremely talented people
       | being very unsuccessful and unhappy because the job just wasn't
       | right for them.
        
         | planck01 wrote:
         | >cultural fit, values alignment
         | 
         | I thought this mattered, but this mostly leads to more of
         | yourself. When we ignored those factors these didn't seem to
         | matter much for team quality - at least at our company. People
         | find surprising ways to relate to and get along with
         | colleagues. You do get a bigger pond to fish from.
        
       | golemiprague wrote:
       | Title should be "Talent is not measurable in the field of
       | software development". I don't see anything in the article that
       | shows talent is a myth in general. Even in the software
       | development the fact that it is hard to gauge talent doesn't mean
       | it doesn't exist.
        
       | predaking wrote:
       | Anyone have an idea of where the self-reported salary chart in
       | the article is from?
        
       | planck01 wrote:
       | In software development I always see 'talent' as correlating to a
       | combination of three things: iq, conscientiousness (personality
       | trait) and a formal education in computer science / mathematics
       | or adjacent like physics.
        
       | tiagobraw wrote:
       | "talent is just pursued interest" Bob Ross
        
       | Spooky23 wrote:
       | Talent isn't a myth, but exclusively attracting it is.
       | 
       | I work or have worked with many different companies in a few
       | different roles. Once you hit a level of competence, none of them
       | stand out as having particularly more talented people.
        
       | Swizec wrote:
       | Talent isn't a myth, it's a prerequisite. Same for hard work.
       | 
       | I could put in all the hours of practice and guided training into
       | boxing as Mike Tyson and I wouldn't get nearly the same results.
       | And I [like to] imagine Tyson could spend as much time
       | programming as I have and not be nearly as good.
       | 
       | Talent is a multiplier. When you're learning something you have a
       | talent for, you'll know.
       | 
       | For example: in high school I was very into art and into
       | programming. I could spend 30 hours on a digital painting and it
       | looked _okay_. But when I spent 30 hours on python, I was fluent
       | in a weekend.
       | 
       | Some folks I knew could take those 30 hours of drawing and
       | produce a painting that would take me 3 months. Even after
       | adjusting for baseline skill.
       | 
       | Their rate of improvement was simply beyond anything I could
       | achieve. Same as my rate of improvement in programming was beyond
       | what they could pull off.
       | 
       | Crucially: Talent isn't a measure of how good you are _now_. It's
       | a measure of _how fast you improve with practice_.
        
         | andybak wrote:
         | I agree with most of what your say but I'm not sure how it
         | relates to the points in the article?
        
           | jaspax wrote:
           | The author suggests that talent "doesn't exist", which is
           | pretty clearly false.
        
             | sdenton4 wrote:
             | My read was that talent, as discussed in bullshit mba
             | speak, is meaningless. Which I can easily get behind. Most
             | MBA speak is just a cloak for confirmation biases.
        
           | sanp wrote:
           | I look at swizec's reply as defining some attributes of
           | talent (something the article says is not generally defined
           | when people talk about talent)..
        
         | jackcviers3 wrote:
         | Or, programming is simply easier than painting or boxing, and
         | boring and tedious for most people.
         | 
         | Physical and psychological traits matter when you undertake
         | certain tasks - how many fast twitch muscle fibers you have,
         | how big and string your lu game and heart is, the angle of your
         | jaw in relation to your brainstem, the distribution of your
         | weight on your body, your personal nerve conduction velocity,
         | your natural aggressiveness and your pain tolerance levels for
         | boxing.
         | 
         | Your natural intelligence, hand-eye coordination, tolerance for
         | failure, and curiosity level for learning programming.
         | 
         | Your hand-eye coordination, imagination, and depth of color
         | vision for painting.
         | 
         | The thing is, while everyone starts with more or less of some
         | physical or mental fitness for a particular task, with enough
         | proper training the difference between two trained
         | professionals is very, very small. Yet o e is Mohammed Ali, and
         | one is Leon Spinks. That difference is not in proportion to the
         | difference in their physical or mental capabilities at the
         | start, and is largely explained in studies by coaching and
         | practice technique.
         | 
         | The ability to follow a trainings regime until you reach
         | success is largely a mental tolerance for failure and
         | determination. If you have lots of success, you tend to
         | continue. But if you were to continue despite failure, you
         | would eventually reach the success you were after if the
         | training regime was correct.
        
           | Swizec wrote:
           | Yep all those things you describe fall under talent. A big
           | one in sports is your genetic predisposition to how fast you
           | can recover. Or how much punishment you can take before your
           | body breaks.
           | 
           | A common training approach for eastern europe gymnastics is
           | to take a bunch of 5 year old kids, train them all the same.
           | Whomever is left standing at 13 gets to compete in
           | international meets.
           | 
           | After 10 years of boxing, I can give a fun round or two even
           | to people prepping for olympic tryouts (I've tried). But a
           | talented 14 year old kid training to go pro in a few years
           | ... they smoke me every time. Even my fully developed adult
           | musculature and the years of ring experience can't compete
           | with their level of focus and talent. I look like a fool
           | every time.
           | 
           | > with enough proper training the difference between two
           | trained professionals is very, very small
           | 
           | At the extreme ends of elite competition everyone works
           | ridiculously hard. Everyone has the perfect nutrition and the
           | training and the coaches and so on. When the difference
           | between olympic silver and gold is the length of a knuckle
           | ... either we're seeing random probabilities playing out (the
           | competition is within margin of error for the test), or it's
           | genetics.
           | 
           | What else could it be?
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | Talent _is_ a multiplier, but the needle can go negative.
         | 
         | It can be a trap. I knew a guy in college, "Kevin" who was not
         | naturally good at anything except perseverance. He worked his
         | ass off all the time. He was doing much better than people like
         | me who could pick things up and be an expert beginner in hours
         | or days, because most of us never worked anywhere near that
         | hard for anything in our lives. I had worked that hard for
         | exactly one thing at this point, which put me at a vantage
         | point of being able to see both groups. None of my other peers
         | really understood Kevin. I confess I didn't always either.
         | 
         | If you can fill your days with things that you are "talented"
         | at, you never get around to the things that are hard but make
         | you a better person or for a richer life. You can justify
         | quitting before you ever start, and only later figure out that
         | "compensating qualities" simply don't. Not all the time.
         | Especially in a crisis.                   She lives with a
         | broken man         A cracked polystyrene man         Who just
         | crumbles and burns
         | 
         | Today a couple of the things that people think I'm talented at,
         | I simply believe are possible when everyone else has given up.
         | The Talent, if there is one, is a better sense of possibility,
         | and a belief that at least a few people could figure things out
         | if they could be arsed to do so. If there's a second Talent,
         | it's in figuring out that not only are people fundamentally the
         | same, century after century, but in many cases so are the
         | problems they struggle with. Much like there is some underlying
         | quality of NP-complete problems that makes them
         | interchangeable. Solving problems is itself a thing you can
         | study, and it can make you "talented" in whatever you care to
         | be arsed to try.
        
         | throwaway2245 wrote:
         | > I could put in all the hours of practice and guided training
         | into boxing as Mike Tyson and I wouldn't get nearly the same
         | results.
         | 
         | I think this fails to recognise the talents that Mike Tyson has
         | leveraged: the soft skills and gumption to identify the best
         | trainers, the best team, the best opportunities, and to seize
         | those, being motivated to gain fame and plaudits. Plus
         | consistent, world-class training and experience on top -
         | working outside of the 30 hours of class.
         | 
         | These skills are very transferable to other fields. Look, for
         | example, at the George Foreman Grill.
         | 
         | Could you have done the same? Yes, I think it's possible. But,
         | viewing it as only practice and guided training seems like a
         | fundamental error.
        
       | yudlejoza wrote:
       | Perception of talent is also a function of how boisterous the
       | claimant is.
       | 
       | Leetcode script kiddies get in, jump from project to project, not
       | spending more than a few months at each, make a filthy mess of
       | every codebase, and leave it to the silent but persevering, a.k.a
       | real, talent to clean up the mess, and steward the ship.
       | 
       | You can focus on the serious tech challenges, or you can be
       | boisterous. You can't be both.
       | 
       |  _edit_ : "can't be both" == "improbable/competing-factors, not
       | impossible"
        
         | spideymans wrote:
         | The skills involved in actual software engineering and
         | leetcoding are completely orthogonal to each other. Being a top
         | leetcoder tells me nothing about your ability to architect
         | software (something that is infinitely more critical than
         | writing a binary tree from scratch ever will be).
        
         | volume wrote:
         | > You can focus on the serious tech challenges, or you can be
         | boisterous. You can't be both.
         | 
         | There's always a spectrum right? Or I guess you are
         | exaggerating to make a point.
        
         | hobofan wrote:
         | > You can't be both.
         | 
         | Why not? It's not like both of those are full time efforts.
        
       | zuhayeer wrote:
       | The compensation distribution chart on this article is from
       | Levels.fyi: https://www.levels.fyi/Salaries/Software-
       | Engineer/San-Franci...
        
       | dustingetz wrote:
       | Main assumption here is that a top 1% developer costs top 1%
       | salary, but that is probably not correlated at all, bc the real
       | way to make money is to attach yourself you the largest possible
       | business and then climb, and the real way to get good is to hack
       | a lot on the most interesting unsolved problems ... these are not
       | just orthogonal but possibly even diametrically opposed
        
         | fnbr wrote:
         | I think the question is also, "good in what sense?"
         | 
         | The really valuable skill (from a dollars & cents perspective)
         | is to be able to provide business value to _the business you're
         | employed at_. That might not transfer anywhere else.
         | 
         | Eg I doubt my skills apply to a young startup- I'm a specialist
         | (ML research), they need a generalist.
         | 
         | If I work at Google on search & get really good at solving
         | political problems related to search, that's a super valuable
         | skill set _to Google_ but probably not to anyone else. I'd
         | probably get promoted and/or get big bonuses. It also probably
         | means that, _ceteris paribus_, I'm a worse coder, as I'm
         | spending less time focusing on tough coding problems.
        
         | hobofan wrote:
         | > bc the real way to make money is to attach yourself you the
         | largest possible business and then climb
         | 
         | I don't know how you get that idea unless you are talking about
         | the handful of C-level positions at tech giants. Otherwise
         | switching your job every few years and increasing
         | salary/position each time is generally the more profitable path
         | than staying at a single company and waiting for promotion.
        
       | cccc4all wrote:
       | Talent definitely exists.
       | 
       | However, it takes more than talent to achieve things in life.
       | 
       | Most successful people in any industry leveraged some talent,
       | with drive, persistence and LUCK to become successful.
        
       | caterama wrote:
       | This reminds me of "The Mundanity of Excellence" [1] which
       | similarly argues that talent is a useless concept:
       | 
       | - Talent just obfuscates the qualitative attributes that
       | contribute to excellence.
       | 
       | - Individuals are identified as talented usually after they have
       | invested effort.
       | 
       | - Talent is a quick and spurious "explanation" or admittance of
       | unexplained variance.
       | 
       | [1] https://fermatslibrary.com/s/the-mundanity-of-excellence-
       | an-...
        
       | jussij wrote:
       | > In other words, there is no way for a startup to pay a top 1%
       | developer (but perhaps they can offer some other incentive, and I
       | don't mean stock options because that's crap).
       | 
       | Who's to say wage is a good measure of talent?
       | 
       | I would say circumstance can play a bigger role in setting the
       | wage, more so than actual talent.
       | 
       | For example, a developer working for a company over a long period
       | of time will always creep up the wage scale, a developer with
       | lots of keyword hits on the resume for the latest and greatest
       | framework can always demand a higher pay, niche software skills
       | always pay well, a developer who began work with a startup that
       | then gets bought out by a multi-notational probably hits the
       | jackpot etc. etc.
        
       | simonh wrote:
       | If you want to hire a top 1% programmer you look at achievement.
       | What have they been doing fur the last few years, and how does it
       | relate to what you need to get done.
       | 
       | Just founded NeXT? Well, what you need is a developer with solid
       | experience developing efficient multithreaded virtual memory
       | operating system kernels. Oh look, here's a project at Carnegie
       | Mellon University doing exactly that. Let's hire from there.
       | Sorted!
       | 
       | Now we need a solid compiler tool chain fir MacOS. This exciting
       | project at the University of Illinois looks good, let's hire one
       | of the founders. Bingo!
       | 
       | See, it's not that hard in theory. You just have to actually know
       | what you're after, and have the resources to get it.
       | Unfortunately most of us can't offer top salaries, or the most
       | exciting cutting edge projects that top people will want to work
       | on. We end up trying to hire the top 1% of people who end up
       | applying for jobs at our organisation. That's a very different
       | problem from hiring a true one percent-er.
        
       | simosx wrote:
       | talent (talanto) is a Greek word to describe some quality or
       | charisma that some people may possess when they do something.
       | 
       | It comes from the ancient times of rulers and peasants when
       | people actually believed in unspecified innate qualities that
       | differentiate people from each other.
       | 
       | "talent" is so much ingrained into culture that people take its
       | vague existence for granted. I think that "talent" is used as a
       | praise for the purposes of attracting/luring someone to do all
       | the work.
        
       | Bostonian wrote:
       | This is wrong. Here is a counterexample from my experience. At
       | sports I have no talent. At chess I have considerable talent and
       | can remember large fragments of games I played decades ago. It's
       | easy for me to remember opening variations I study. When I teach
       | others some opening moves, they soon forget. I worked hard at
       | chess to become an international master, but the ability to
       | remember and apply what I learned motivated me to study. Most
       | people do not have the talent to become a chess master.
        
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       (page generated 2021-02-07 23:02 UTC)