[HN Gopher] Amazon's Kuiper responds to SpaceX on FCC request
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Amazon's Kuiper responds to SpaceX on FCC request
        
       Author : CapitalistCartr
       Score  : 60 points
       Date   : 2021-02-07 17:55 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
        
       | jhowell wrote:
       | Anyone know how obsolescence won't create space debris in this
       | emerging competition.
        
       | Jonanin wrote:
       | This line says it all:                 Goldman highlighted that
       | Amazon representatives have had "30 meetings to oppose SpaceX"
       | but "no meetings to authorize its own system," which he
       | interpreted as an attempt to stifle competition.
        
         | alphabettsy wrote:
         | That's unverified and coming from the SpaceX guy. I'm not sure
         | it says it all.
        
       | Jabbles wrote:
       | How is Amazon planning to launch their satellites? Using Blue
       | Origin?
        
       | tectonic wrote:
       | Project Kuiper is so far behind Starlink at this point that this
       | kind of regulatory maneuvering is pretty laughable. (As compared
       | to regulating the brightness of LEO satellites, which is very
       | much needed. In this regard, allowing SpaceX to lower the orbit
       | of these satellites is actually good for astronomy. We talk about
       | this stuff pretty frequently in Orbital Index
       | [https://orbitalindex.com].)
        
         | ABeeSea wrote:
         | The head of Kuiper and most of the senior team led Starlink
         | until Musk allegedly fired them for moving too slow and being
         | too cautious. So Amazon being operationally behind isn't
         | exactly surprising.
         | 
         | >Musk had fired at least seven members of the program's senior
         | management team at the Redmond, Washington, office, the
         | culmination of disagreements over the pace at which the team
         | was developing and testing its Starlink satellites, according
         | to the two SpaceX employees with direct knowledge of the
         | situation.
         | 
         | https://www.businessinsider.com/r-musk-shakes-up-spacex-in-r...
        
           | brianwawok wrote:
           | Gotta move at Musk speed, makes sense.
        
             | meibo wrote:
             | If anything, it seems to work out for him at SpaceX.
             | 
             | Speed and latency measured with the Starlink beta/GA are
             | unparalleled at the moment, yet to see if they worsen with
             | an increase of userbase.
        
           | ignoramous wrote:
           | Could also be SpaceX trying to put a different spin on the
           | story? Bezos might have poached them from right under Musk's
           | nose for all we know.
        
             | NortySpock wrote:
             | Maybe, but my sense as an outsider was that Starlink was
             | moving at a snail's pace and was essentially PR vaporware
             | prior to these firings. Granted, there's a lot of
             | engineering going on behind the scenes, but the timing is
             | perhaps suggestive...
             | 
             | Look at the timeline:
             | 
             | Jan 2015 -- announce plans
             | 
             | Jan 2017 -- Starlink trademarked
             | 
             | Feb 2018 - test flight of two satellites
             | 
             | May 2019 - Launch 60 of the v0.9 model
             | 
             | June 2019 - fire 7 people
             | 
             | Oct 2019 - this article
             | 
             | Nov 2019 - Launch 60 of the v1.0 model
             | 
             | 7 Jan 2020 - 60 satellites launched
             | 
             | 29 Jan 2020 - 60 satellites launched
             | 
             | 17 Feb 2020 - 60 satellites launched
             | 
             | 18 Mar 2020 - 60 satellites launched
             | 
             | 22 Apr 2020 - 60 satellites launched
             | 
             | 04 Jun 2020 - 60 satellites launched
             | 
             | etc.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink
        
               | qchris wrote:
               | I know that SpaceX has historically had a abnormally high
               | development and deployment cadence, but I think that your
               | second point about behind-the-scenes development is
               | probably closest to the mark.
               | 
               | To me, it seems more plausible that they were taking a
               | solid-not-polished design that's been mostly worked
               | through for a few years, doing some team re-org and
               | removing people who aren't working out, and then finished
               | tweaking the design and got ready for scaling to higher
               | production over the next few months than it does they
               | were scraping by on the skin of their teeth for almost
               | four years and suddenly managed to catch up on everything
               | (and have it work!) in those same last few months.
               | 
               | It's absolutely possible I'm wrong, but if the Starklink
               | team truly managed a timeline of 6 months from
               | "vaporware" to functionally the world's first mega-
               | constellation, I'd be absolutely floored.
        
               | m463 wrote:
               | Where do:
               | 
               | "Amazon representatives have had "30 meetings to oppose
               | SpaceX" but "no meetings to authorize its own system""
               | 
               | ... those 30 meetings fit into the timeline? :)
        
               | snapcore wrote:
               | If you just graph the launches that looks like R&D +
               | production ramp-up.
        
         | cozzyd wrote:
         | I'm sure Starlink could try to purchase the regulatory
         | allotments from Kuiper/Kepler/etc. if they so wanted.
        
         | gamblor956 wrote:
         | You have it exactly backwards. Starlink is attempting to block
         | competition by moving into orbits not assigned to it but which
         | have been targeted by competitors. Starlink _had_ the option of
         | using the lower orbit when it designed its system, and _chose
         | not_ to even consider that orbit until Kuiper was announced.
         | 
         |  _Every other company in the space_ is opposed to this move,
         | because Starlink 's unilateral reconfiguration would interfere
         | with _nearly every other company 's operations._ Part of the
         | FCC's mandate is to prevent that from occurring, and SpaceX
         | absolutely deserves to be slapped down for its anticompetitive
         | behavior.
        
           | m463 wrote:
           | Come on, starlink already has 1000 satellites in the lower
           | orbit.
        
       | drummer wrote:
       | Typical Bezos tactics of trying to fuck the competition. Only
       | this time, he has a formidable opponent and is going to crash and
       | burn.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | danpalmer wrote:
       | SpaceX have demonstrated an orbital launch capability, satellite
       | operation capability, satellite de-orbit capability, and
       | scheduled launches in the near term. Amazon have none of these
       | capabilities and barely even a plan to get there by the deadline
       | in 6 years time.
       | 
       | I'm sure both sides are as bad as each other on the competition
       | aspect, after all it's Elon Musk and Amazon/Bezos, I can't
       | imagine two worse people for that. But it does seem a little
       | unfair that Amazon have barely any proven track record and could
       | prevent SpaceX from furthering their very proven track record.
       | 
       | Edit: as much as Blue Origin may play into the plans for this,
       | they have not reached orbit, and do not have an operational
       | rocket suitable for this (yet). Maybe Amazon have signed a deal
       | for launches, but otherwise just being owned by the same
       | eccentric billionaire shouldn't really suggest the ability for
       | the company to pull it off.
        
         | PartiallyTyped wrote:
         | Genuine question, related but not by a lot.
         | 
         | How likely is it that Starlink and whatever amazon is planning
         | will end up polluting space with satellite garbage that will
         | make future missions difficult/impossible due to high velocity
         | collisions?
        
           | danpalmer wrote:
           | My answer as an interested layman but not an expert:
           | 
           | Yes this is a huge concern, which is why attention is being
           | paid to how these satellites will de-orbit.
           | 
           | Up to maybe 10 years ago satellites were just put up there
           | and at best would move out of the way a bit when they reached
           | end of life, but most would just stay. Plus lots of things
           | were just discarded from mission, or lost accidentally,
           | creating more junk. All of this made space junk a big and
           | growing concern...
           | 
           | However, now everyone is very aware, so satellites have de-
           | orbiting built in (and I think this might be a legal
           | requirement now), orbits may be chosen with ease of de-
           | orbiting in mind, more care is taken to letting junk
           | accumulate, several companies are working on clearup
           | mechanisms, etc. All this may mean that the worst-case
           | scenario doesn't ever actually play out, and it's not that
           | big a deal in the long run.
           | 
           | We'll have to wait and see, but there will be a lot of money
           | behind making this as little of an issue as possible so that
           | the space industry can really take off.
        
           | Gwypaas wrote:
           | Not at all for Starlink. The orbits are low enough to decay
           | within 5-10 years if they are left without station keeping.
           | Remember, "space" does not start at the karman line, it is a
           | continuous transition. Although, they have a license for
           | satellites at ~1100 km altitude. Those would need active
           | deorbiting.
           | 
           | The Starlink satellites are also designed to completely burn
           | up in the atmosphere. This is one of the reasons why the
           | first generation does not have laser-links, that was
           | supposedly the hardest part to design fulfilling that
           | criteria.
           | 
           | That's actually one of the advantages of their proposed
           | lowering of the orbits, they need to think even less about
           | end of life questions and redundancy.
           | 
           | Edit: See here for the continuous sweeping happening at lower
           | orbits.
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/ld4vlq/gabbard_diagr.
           | ..
        
             | m463 wrote:
             | They want to lower those satellites to ~550km which seems
             | to me to be significantly less likely to leave space junk
             | around.
        
             | blisterpeanuts wrote:
             | The Starlink sats are also specifically designed to be
             | forcibly de-orbited at end-of-life, rather than remain as
             | space junk for however long.[1]
             | 
             | 1. starlink.com
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | cambalache wrote:
           | OK, asking from total ignorance here, shouldnt the companies
           | putting these things in orbit (and benefiting from it) be
           | responsible for safely decommissioning the satellites after
           | their useful life is over? Shouldnt they be liable if their
           | "space garbage" fuck other people/nation equipment?
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | For most conventional satellites (and let's not forget
             | second stages), the cost of deorbiting it if it fails is
             | immense because it essentially requires launching a "tug"
             | which didn't even exist until recently. Because it was so
             | exepensive, people were allowed to ignore it. We'll
             | probably eventually look back on this attitude the same way
             | we view 1970s cars that didn't use known safety features.
             | 
             | SpaceX is being forced to innovate in this area because
             | everybody realized the YOLO attitude towards space junk
             | doesn't scale to thousands of satellites.
        
           | zamadatix wrote:
           | Despite the strong responses already it's only been a recent
           | development that Starlink requested all orbital shells be the
           | 5 year decay orbit or lower (and that change still not
           | approved yet). Assuming they go forward with that plan though
           | even the worst case scenario is a relatively temporary
           | problem - they've shown the satellites can move and de-orbit
           | on command and when they don't the newly proposed highest
           | shell is about a 5 year natural decay.
           | 
           | Also it's not so much the concern about hitting a satellite
           | on your way up (easy to track and space is spacey) rather the
           | concern that over many years any 2 satellites in the shell
           | will collide creating a lot of debris that could collide with
           | more satellites in the shell and so on. That's why there are
           | requirements about being able to move your satellites
           | actively as part of these proposals, to prevent such a
           | scenario from happening or growing if it did.
        
             | teruakohatu wrote:
             | > they've shown the satellites can move and de-orbit on
             | command
             | 
             | Are there cost weight savings if they can remove the fuel
             | or equipment needed to force a deoribit? So if a sat dies
             | on day one they can just shrug and say it will burn up in 5
             | years.
             | 
             | Or can they induce drag without extra equipment?
        
               | zamadatix wrote:
               | Technically yes, as long as it will de-orbit in less than
               | 25 years you don't need to. That being said not being
               | able to de-orbit on command or maneuver out of a
               | collision course is going to make getting tens of
               | thousands of such satellites approved much less likely.
               | 
               | Also they are used as part of the normal operation of the
               | satellites anyways, ~60 are launched together in one big
               | clump and then the ion thrusters get them into the
               | individual target orbits and keep them there over time
               | (until fuel runs out trying to keep the orbit on track or
               | the satellite stops being operationally useful), so
               | getting rid of it does make it lighter but not
               | necessarily better suited.
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | I've written this before: Jeff Bezos has a hobby, Elon Musk is
         | a man on a mission. Bezos doesn't live or die depending on how
         | his space venture pans out, he's not hungry for it.
         | 
         | To Elon Musk everything he's done in his life so far has been
         | so that he could eventually do this space thing and that is
         | what defines him. The two couldn't be more different. For Elon
         | failure is not an option, for Bezos it very much is.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | Is that actually true? Because if I were Elon Musk that is
           | the image I would want people to think of me - I'm sure he is
           | ideologically motivated in where be builds his businesses but
           | it seems to be popular to ascribe considerable virtue to
           | someone who can be rather unvirtuous when pushed.
        
             | danielheath wrote:
             | What makes "I want to launch rockets and am obsessed with
             | doing it" a particularly virtuous assessment?
        
               | mhh__ wrote:
               | Because no hackernews thread about an Elon company is
               | complete with either straight up religious worship of
               | Elon or brushing away potentially legitimate concerns
               | about his businesses - and this isn't even including the
               | inevitable "Tesla isn't a car company" in any thread
               | where Tesla is compared to any other company that sells
               | cars
               | 
               | As far as reality distortion fields go, I don't think
               | it's that bad, but with these kinds of things I am firmly
               | in the "don't trust; verify twice" camp.
        
           | yumraj wrote:
           | Just because Bezos didn't tweet publicly doesn't mean that he
           | too is not a man with a mission.
           | 
           | Everything he has achieved with Amazon very much seems to
           | imply otherwise.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | Bezos has a very large amount of unallocated capital, which
             | means that if he had a mission, he could move a lot faster
             | on it. Musk has none, in fact, has heavily bet the farm
             | more than once in pursuit of his stated mission. If Bezos
             | has a mission I can not find what it is based on his
             | actions. If I didn't know what Musk's mission was I could
             | make a pretty good stab at it based on his actions so far.
        
         | themgt wrote:
         | Yeah I have no way to assess the credibility of Amazon vs.
         | SpaceX claims. But Amazon has not 6 but less than 5.5 years to
         | get 1600 sats into orbit and they don't have a rocket to put
         | them on. Blue Origin still hasn't been able to build two
         | flight-worthy BE-4 engines for ULA to launch a Vulcan. Then
         | they need 7 more engines and finish up the rest of New Glenn,
         | LC-36 and their barge and do their first ever successful
         | orbital flight. There's almost zero chance that will happen
         | within the next 12 months, and if anything goes wrong could
         | easily be into 2023. Blue Origin will then have optimistically
         | ~4.5 years to become the second-largest launch provider.
         | 
         | It's worth noting there's bad blood in the general space
         | community already after Blue tried to stop SpaceX from doing
         | barge landings, attempted to also take over pad 39A vs SpaceX
         | even though Blue has nothing to launch, their $10 billion HLS
         | "40 foot ladder" proposal and Bezos infamous "Congrats @SpaceX
         | on landing Falcon's suborbital booster stage. Welcome to the
         | club!" back 6 years ago gives a general gist of why Bezos'
         | claims are being treated with skepticism by many.
         | https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/679116636310360067
        
         | dzhiurgis wrote:
         | > eccentric billionaire
         | 
         | Looking at richest people of the world right now, none of them
         | strike as eccentric.
         | 
         | Average plumber or musician is order of magnitude more
         | eccentric or radical.
        
         | tidepod12 wrote:
         | I don't see how this addresses any of the concerns brought up
         | in the article. This entire spat is because SpaceX got approval
         | from the FCC to deploy their system in a specific way, and
         | Amazon acknowledged that and designed their system in a way to
         | not interfere with SpaceX. Now SpaceX is coming and saying they
         | want to change their system in a way to interfere with Amazon.
         | 
         | Forget the names of the companies and their leaders for a
         | second. We have a shared public resource, like a pond. Company
         | A showed up and says "I am going to set up shop on this side of
         | the pond, and we will leave the rest of the pond open for other
         | people to use." Company B then says "okay, we are going to set
         | up shop on the other side of the pond so we don't interfere
         | with each other." Company A then says "no, we actually want to
         | use that side of the pond, too. too bad for you".
         | 
         | In what universe is Company A in the right here, and why does
         | it matter who gets there first? It's clearly anti-competitive
         | practice on the part of Company A trying to shut out Company B,
         | and the only people who will suffer from it are the general
         | public.
        
           | tidepod12 wrote:
           | Secondary comment: SpaceX's behavior in this instance is not
           | unlike every other ISP in America engaging in anti-
           | competitive behavior to keep newcomers out. Remember when
           | Google Fiber was rolling out and tried to use fiber/utility
           | poles in a way that allowed ISPs to share public utility
           | poles? But then ATT pitched a fit [1, 2] saying "actually we
           | don't want Google Fiber to do that because it could possibly
           | harm our business in some unspecified and vague way",
           | basically killing the expansion of Fiber [3]? And who
           | suffered? All of us unlucky Americans who are now stuck with
           | exorbitant prices for ridiculous internet plans from ATT
           | because we don't have any other options.
           | 
           | We already have an absolutely terrible oligopoly of wired
           | ISPs, do we really want to start down this path of allowing
           | the same to happen for space-based internet, too?
           | 
           | 1: https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20160923/06590635601/att
           | -s...
           | 
           | 2: https://www.slashgear.com/att-files-lawsuit-to-hinder-
           | google...
           | 
           | 3: https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/7/18215743/google-fiber-
           | leav...
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | And then there is the little detail that this is being
             | decided for the whole world but actually just benefits one,
             | possibly two companies from the United States. Space
             | belongs to all of us, not just to the USA.
        
               | cozzyd wrote:
               | Yeah, it's not clear to me why the FCC (and not ITU or
               | some multinational body) has jurisdiction here. What
               | remedy would Musk have if Russia decided to launch
               | CosmosNet or whatever that was interfering?
        
               | tidepod12 wrote:
               | The ITU does have jurisdiction. Since SpaceX (and Amazon)
               | are US companies, they work with the FCC, who then works
               | with the ITU on behalf of SpaceX/Amazon.
        
               | cozzyd wrote:
               | This is tangential, but you seem like you know a lot
               | about this :).
               | 
               | How come I can't easily find a registry of the
               | UP/DL/Beacon transmission frequencies for every
               | satellite. Am I just not looking in the right place? I
               | can find various hobbyist's catalogs, but nothing that
               | looks remotely official. Any satellite with downlinks
               | between 30 MHz and 1.2 GHz is potentially useful for
               | helping to calibrate one or more of the radio neutrino
               | experiments I work on.
        
               | jcrawfordor wrote:
               | For partially historic and partially current reasons,
               | detailed satellite catalogs are considered militarily
               | sensitive to some degree... not to a huge extent, but to
               | such an extent that it's prevented the formation of an
               | open, international coordinating system for satellites,
               | keeping most of the coordination work done behind closed
               | doors. The closest thing to an "official" international
               | satellite catalog would probably be that maintained by
               | USSTRATCOM but it's post-facto. UN Space Affairs
               | facilitates coordination and has a catalog but it does
               | not pretend to be complete and has only limited
               | information.
               | 
               | A good source of downlink information is the FCC
               | International Bureau records of satellite ground stations
               | in the US.
        
               | cozzyd wrote:
               | Yeah I can find TLE catalogs easily enough (celestrack
               | and space-track) and it seems NORAD IDs are an almost
               | standard. The FCC ground station list that I can find has
               | some of them, but lacks a lot of notable ones (NOAA
               | satellites, MUOS, Gonets...).
        
           | bpodgursky wrote:
           | How long is an appropriate window for Amazon to lock down
           | orbital slots without a solid plan to use it?
           | 
           | I can understand a year or two, especially if they have
           | orbital capacity ready. But six years?
           | 
           | The space could provisionally be granted to SpaceX with a 15
           | year renewal period or something. Locking down options for a
           | decade on wishful thinking does not seem particularly
           | competitive for me.
        
             | tidepod12 wrote:
             | In 2017 SpaceX was granted a window to "lock down" its
             | proposed slots for 9 years to prevent others from taking
             | those slots, and that was years before they even had a
             | single satellite flying. I don't see why Amazon shouldn't
             | be given the same treatment.
        
               | bpodgursky wrote:
               | SpaceX was launching large batches of satellites by 2019,
               | two years later! And even in 2017, they had proven mass
               | launch capacity.
               | 
               | Yes, sure, give Amazon the same treatment. Start orbiting
               | large numbers of satellites in 2022 or you lose it.
        
             | cozzyd wrote:
             | It's six years to deploy half of the planned satellites,
             | which would assuredly imply the first satellites go
             | significantly before that.
             | 
             | Also, it's not like the FCC should be allowed to take it
             | back, even if 6 years is unreasonable.
        
       | tpmx wrote:
       | Not exactly sure about the RF details here (probably very few
       | people are), but, as a theoretical exercise, should we really
       | allow the first mover to just grab what's available? Why?
        
         | wmf wrote:
         | When new satellite services emerged previously, the FCC had a
         | policy of requiring two competitors (DirecTV vs. Dish and XM
         | vs. Sirius). It would be nice to continue that with Starlink
         | vs. Kuiper but as a layman the wranglings are too obscure for
         | me to follow. Both companies are accusing each other of the
         | exact same things and apparently nobody in the press is
         | qualified to have an opinion so they just teach the
         | controversy.
        
         | maxharris wrote:
         | > grab what's available
         | 
         | This isn't a fair characterization. In order to have knowledge
         | of something, you need more than theory: you need to validate
         | your idea with observed experience. The first person to
         | actually achieve something, demonstrated by an existence proof,
         | can in most cases be said to have gone through both steps.
         | 
         | The second part of this is that individual rights guarantees
         | that innovators are free to achieve ("the sky's the limit" is
         | out of date"). Innovators do this for their own benefit, as
         | they should. As a side effect, the rest of us also benefit
         | enormously! There are a lot of people in rural areas stuck with
         | incredibly poor internet service, via HughesNet or DSL, and
         | Starlink is a massive boon to us. It's amazing to pull 150 Mbps
         | on the side of a mountain or on the open ocean...
         | 
         | Why is it just that Bezos take a backseat here? Without the
         | pioneering achievements from SpaceX, Bezos wouldn't have the
         | certainty that such a network is even possible. Over the past
         | two decades, many, many ventures have gone bankrupt trying to
         | achieve what SpaceX has done.
         | 
         | SpaceX has earned its success, and Bezos shouldn't be allowed
         | to run to the government to kneecap his competitor.
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | > Why is it just that Bezos take a backseat here? Without the
           | pioneering achievements from SpaceX, Bezos wouldn't have the
           | certainty that such a network is even possible. Over the past
           | two decades, many, many ventures have gone bankrupt trying to
           | achieve what SpaceX has done.
           | 
           | That's all irrelevant to the consumer, 20 years down the
           | line.
           | 
           | What I see: Two tycoons battling it out. It doesn't really
           | matter that one of them is a (very clear) follower in this
           | field; competition is crucial in the long term.
           | 
           | > SpaceX has earned its success
           | 
           | That's not how this works. The frequency spectrum is a common
           | good. The FCC exists for a reason.
        
         | yokem55 wrote:
         | Because everyone else who has tried has gone bankrupt or has to
         | limit the service in utterly crappy ways? Starlink is only
         | economically and technically viable because SpaceX can build
         | and launch high numbers of satellites cheaply enough to
         | bootstrap a sustainable and desirable product. Limiting the
         | scalability of Starlink to make room for a competitor would in
         | the long run make both suck. Now, sclerotic and poor performing
         | monopolies also suck, but for now at least, Starlink is the
         | rapidly improving disruptor.
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | > Now, sclerotic and poor performing monopolies also suck,
           | but for now at least, Starlink is the rapidly improving
           | disruptor.
           | 
           |  _for now at least_
           | 
           | Please think more long term.
        
             | friedman23 wrote:
             | Yes, thinking long term, handicapping spacex in the short
             | term is bad for the advancement of technology in the long
             | term.
        
             | yokem55 wrote:
             | In the long run, we're all dead. So let's say we hold back
             | the scaling of Starlink to make sure there is room for
             | future competition. That _might_ make for a _somewhat_
             | better future. It also might just stifle the whole project
             | in it 's cradle.
        
               | tpmx wrote:
               | > In the long run, we're all dead.
               | 
               | Okay, so think 10, 20 and 40 years from now.
               | 
               | > So let's say we hold back the scaling of Starlink to
               | make sure there is room for future competition. That
               | might make for a somewhat better future. It also might
               | just stifle the whole project in it's cradle.
               | 
               | I guess here is where credible EE/RF journalism would be
               | desirable. You don't know (and I don't know) but you want
               | to stop this because it might maybe hurt Starlink too
               | much.
        
               | optimiz3 wrote:
               | If it's a problem in 10, 20 or 40 years, we can deal with
               | it then. The anti-trust tools are there. Also the current
               | LEO satellites de-orbit in 5-10 years, so the concern is
               | moot if Amazon actually gets their stuff together.
        
               | Seanambers wrote:
               | From a more strategic viewpoint ;
               | 
               | If you assume SpaceX tech gets copied and reuse becomes
               | the norm for rockets then Starlink would face
               | competition. Over time the costs would fall both with
               | regards to launches but also in the satellite part of it,
               | meaning Starlink competitors would be able to do it for
               | less.
               | 
               | Slowing Spacex/Starlink now would only serve the help
               | their competitors and punish a first mover.
               | 
               | But on the EE/RF side of it i have no idea what arguments
               | are legit and so forth tbh.
        
               | tpmx wrote:
               | If the Starlink business model depends on them having a
               | monopoly of this kind of service - it shouldn't be a
               | privately owned service. Hopefully it can stay private
               | though - that typically allows for much greater
               | development velocities. Maybe we just need to trust the
               | FCC to do the right thing? :/
               | 
               | I want to know more about the RF issues involved here
               | though.
        
         | dzhiurgis wrote:
         | Why would we want to have 3-5 competitors for same thing tho?
         | That would just make 10x more expensive for everyone.
         | 
         | Same with cellular networks. There's some theoretical sharing,
         | but in practice we're covering same area 3x times at 3x slower
         | total bandwidth...
         | 
         | Some governments are starting to realise this is huge ripoff
         | and start their own networks with MVNO's, similar how
         | copper/fibre telco's and power companies are have been sorted
         | for decades. Unsure why space should be different. Sat tech is
         | reasonably simple, it's just launch cost where competition is
         | at. Same way the only competitior between cell network
         | operators is tower installation (third party) and support
         | (abhorrent).
        
       | blisterpeanuts wrote:
       | Regardless of these quarrels among competitors, Starlink is doing
       | impressive things. From the website[1]:                 Starlink
       | is now delivering initial beta service both domestically
       | and internationally, and will continue expansion to near global
       | coverage        of the populated world in 2021.
       | 
       | They're also going to minimize their contribution to space junk:
       | At end of life, the satellites will utilize their on-board
       | propulsion system to       deorbit over the course of a few
       | months. In the unlikely event the propulsion system       becomes
       | inoperable, the satellites will burn up in Earth's atmosphere
       | within 1-5       years, significantly less than the hundreds or
       | thousands of years required at higher       altitudes.
       | 
       | Also interesting is that they're using "ion thrusters powered by
       | krypton" and claim this is the first spacecraft to use this
       | propulsion method.
       | 
       | If they can boost data transfer speed from 40-60Mb/s currently to
       | N gigabits/second, perhaps will provide stiff competition to
       | conventional cell carriers.
       | 
       | These are exciting times.
       | 
       | 1. https://www.starlink.com/
        
         | mdasen wrote:
         | It probably won't provide competition to cell carriers for a
         | few reasons. Starlink's equipment is large and needs a direct
         | view of the sky. Their app needs to take photos of where you're
         | positioning the receiver/transmitter to make sure there are no
         | obstructions. The fact that they're using satellites means that
         | they can get very broad coverage, but between the fact that
         | it's satellite and the fact that they're using very high
         | frequency spectrum means that it requires line-of-sight.
         | 
         | From what I can see, Starlink is using a lot more power to
         | transmit than cell phones are really capable of given the
         | battery constraints.
         | 
         | I think the more likely possibility is Starlink offering
         | backhaul for rural cell sites where it might be cost
         | prohibitive to run fiber. However, I'm not sure it would be
         | more cost effective to use satellite backhaul than terrestrial
         | microwave or fiber. Satellites aren't cheap, but who knows.
         | 
         | In terms of boosting the data transfer speed, that won't be
         | simple. Terrestrial wireless (like cell carriers) can offer
         | good speeds because each cell tower is covering a very limited
         | area. If you're 20 miles away from me, we'll be connecting to
         | different cell towers and therefore can use the same radio
         | spectrum without interfering with each other. With satellites,
         | a lot more people will be sharing the same radio spectrum. Now,
         | I'm sure Starlink is operating under the idea that they can
         | launch lots of satellites and get decent spectrum re-use.
         | However, cell carriers have around 80,000 cell sites each.
         | Starlink is only planning on launching 10,000-15,000 and hoping
         | to get permission to get up to 30,000. That still means a lot
         | more sharing of the same spectrum.
         | 
         | You can get higher speed by using more spectrum. However, that
         | spectrum needs to be licensed, it isn't always cheap, and other
         | people want to license it too. The way that the gigabit speeds
         | from wireless carriers work is by using many hundreds of MHz of
         | spectrum that can't go very far (because it gets disrupted by
         | things like buildings, trees, etc.). Lower frequency spectrum
         | can go further (since it penetrates objects better), but
         | there's a pretty limited amount of it and most of it is already
         | spoken for (whether that's TV, FM radio, current wireless
         | service, etc.).
         | 
         | I think Starlink will provide a good option for many people who
         | don't live in areas well-served by current internet options.
         | It's a huge jump to believe that it will offer competition to
         | cell carriers. It just isn't that type of technology and you
         | run into limits that you can't really get around.
         | 
         | That's not to say that Starlink isn't important. It is
         | important for many people who don't have access to good
         | internet in the US and around the world, but it isn't going to
         | provide competition for your cell phone provider.
        
           | m463 wrote:
           | What about vehicle links currently using cellular?
           | 
           | I'm just waiting for tesla cars to all have starlink instead
           | of (or in addition to LTE).
        
             | dzhiurgis wrote:
             | 95% of miles are urban where you 90% of time you've got
             | LTE. What's the use case for Starlink in cars?
        
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