[HN Gopher] Threat Modeling Manifesto
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       Threat Modeling Manifesto
        
       Author : kiyanwang
       Score  : 59 points
       Date   : 2021-02-07 11:49 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.threatmodelingmanifesto.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.threatmodelingmanifesto.org)
        
       | tetha wrote:
       | Hm, currently, this sets of marketing alert bells. It looks
       | pretty, it has good points. I'd like to have some structured
       | approaches to some internal concerns we have.
       | 
       | However, there seem to be zero links to tools and approaches to
       | actually do something? Most links are to articles explaining why
       | the manifesto exists... by companies offering consulting in this
       | area.
        
         | abarringer wrote:
         | Might want to look at
         | https://attack.mitre.org/matrices/enterprise/
        
         | alphalima wrote:
         | If you're looking for concrete resources with steps on how to
         | perform threat modelling, I've used the Microsoft SDL Threat
         | Modelling tool/process [1].
         | 
         | It's pretty Microsoft skewed (lots of references to Azure
         | resources), but is a reasonable way to start thinking about the
         | topic.
         | 
         | [1]: https://www.microsoft.com/en-
         | us/securityengineering/sdl/thre...
        
       | GartzenDeHaes wrote:
       | This is a nice slide for an executive briefing. However, to get
       | anything useful out of threat modeling you really need a full
       | architecture view to start with. This would include both the
       | technology and the business processes. Few organizations are
       | willing to put effort and resources into developing these and
       | there are few, if any, tools to help.
        
       | easterncalculus wrote:
       | > People and collaboration over processes, methodologies, and
       | tools.
       | 
       | This part I don't get. Processes, methodologies, and tools are
       | how you prevent bad stuff from happening. This is exactly what
       | you need over just whether people feel okay or are collaborating
       | enough before they go home. You can value these things but you
       | absolutely should not put people over your processes,
       | methodologies, and tools. Those are there when people inevitably
       | fail. Pretty poor advice from anything related to threat modeling
       | I've heard before; This is corporate speak instead of security
       | speak.
        
         | jcims wrote:
         | If you read the whole manifesto it references process and
         | consistency quite a few times. I think the point is that its
         | easier to fix the process than the people, so prioritize
         | participation and collaboration over sticking to a specific
         | approach.
        
         | wefarrell wrote:
         | It's a regurgitation of the agile manifesto's "Individuals and
         | interactions over processes and tools"
        
       | cottsak wrote:
       | could prob do with a HTTPS redirect tho :p and maybe a sprinkling
       | of HSTS
        
         | alanfranz wrote:
         | Wow, I don't know if it's intentional on the part of the
         | authors, but, on the contrary, I'd ask you: why? What is your
         | threat model?
         | 
         | Do you think somebody may perform a MitM to replace the
         | information on the website?
         | 
         | Do you think somebody could sniff your communications with that
         | website and there could be any negative consequence for any
         | party?
         | 
         | The HTTPS movement, in a lot of situations, suffers from non-
         | threat modeling issue. There's very little gain from https-
         | protecting a page like the linked one; at the same time it's
         | true that the cost involved is minimal.
        
           | mac-chaffee wrote:
           | Just two weeks ago, security researchers (like the kind of
           | people who would be interested in visiting this page) were
           | targeted by hackers which used a still-unpatched (as far as
           | we know) Chrome zero-day to install malware:
           | https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/new-campaign-
           | targe...
           | 
           | If this page started getting popular, a MitM attack to inject
           | malware is a very real possibility.
        
           | nokya wrote:
           | "There's very little gain from https-protecting a page like
           | the linked one."
           | 
           | - malicious content injection
           | 
           | - malicious content injection
           | 
           | - malicious content injection
           | 
           | - and... malicious content injection.
           | 
           | Four valid reasons.
        
           | goalieca wrote:
           | My old isp used to inject ads and other warnings into plain
           | http traffic.
           | 
           | I think it's generally considered a good posture to be
           | defensive and have privacy as default. Time has shown that
           | information is power no matter how boring you think it is.
        
           | beermonster wrote:
           | Aside from helping mitigate MiTM, https has other benefits
           | 
           | - Faster due to that fact HTTP/2 can be used.
           | 
           | - Makes censorship harder as individual pages cannot be
           | censored but rather the entire site which is more noticeable
           | 
           | - Stops ISPs injecting content/tracking
           | 
           | - Stops transparent proxies injecting content/tracking
           | 
           | - Helps with page ranking as search engines prefer sites
           | which load faster and offer improved security
           | 
           | - Mixed content is a bit of a headache, with external
           | resources such as JavaScript being loaded and leading to
           | browser warnings.
        
         | whirlwin wrote:
         | Yeah. Quite funny. "Do as I say, not as I do".
        
       | raesene9 wrote:
       | This is a good page, but doesn't have a lot of detail on it. A
       | good page I found that covers threat modelling in a relatively
       | approachable way is https://martinfowler.com/articles/agile-
       | threat-modelling.htm...
        
       | motohagiography wrote:
       | I've mostly given up on threat modelling as a solution, even
       | after building a tool from scratch and using it in organizations,
       | and now only do it privately on my own stuff, but the reason
       | might be a fresh perspective.
       | 
       | The basic problem is that the demand for security stems almost
       | exclusively from compliance because compliance _transfers risk
       | out_ of the project and onto the standard /model. The idea of
       | thinking through risks and hypotheticals and leaving a paper
       | trail that you have acknowledged them basically converts
       | theoretical risk into real liability within the project. In an
       | ideal world of individual ownership and goodness, this means the
       | incentives are aligned to create a good product, but in the real
       | world of organizations, you've reduced the flexibility of the
       | business to _manage_ that risk, which means to take the risk and
       | respond to it on the fly as it looks like it becomes realized. By
       | problematizing the risk instead of managing it, you have
       | destroyed potential value. Threat modelling is the exercise of
       | problematizing risk.
       | 
       | This is why the threat model is often the elephant in the room.
       | Almost nobody in business wants to have the "negative"
       | conversation about whether to block law enforcement (foreign or
       | domestic), surveillance on users, protect against data snooping
       | by technical staff (which is often a platform perk and feature),
       | or institutional privacy violations and other obvious threats
       | that a threat modelling exercise addresses. A business PM won't
       | problematize those things because it will demand a solution that
       | gets in their critical path. The best they can do is _manage_ it,
       | which means orienting themselves to risk and being ready to
       | respond.
       | 
       | When people buy security products, they almost exclusively buy
       | ones that provide data to _manage_ risk using surveillance and
       | monitoring, which means generating data that drives conversations
       | and enables the organization to adapt in time. If a security
       | product does not either a) externalize a risk with compliance or
       | b) provide data to flexibly manage risk, it 's not a security
       | product in the market today because nobody will have bought it.
       | 
       | I realize this is a 10th man view of something these very smart
       | people have spent a lot of time on, but in the 25 years I have
       | been in the field, I have come to the conclusion that security
       | people are essentially environmentalists and activists trying to
       | make a case for internalizing an exogenous problem and cost, and
       | the only way to get traction for it is to produce either low-
       | level discretionary developer tools, or generate data that
       | supports the conversations and provides that flexibility in a
       | business' attitude to risk. Threat modelling is super powerful,
       | but as a forcing function it can destroy value, and this is why
       | it has encountered so much resistance. All manifestos are
       | quixotic, and that is why I think this one may also be.
       | 
       | I have found that the real value of a threat model is defining
       | the business model for a security product, where the threat model
       | _is_ the business case for a product, but that product needs the
       | above features, and to not be a solution to succeed. The security
       | product provides either compliance or data for the threats you
       | derive from your modelling exercise, and it must either transfer
       | risk to a model or provide data to manage. If it leaves
       | responsibility in the project, like threat modelling, it 's going
       | to fail.
        
         | nokya wrote:
         | Very interesting comment, thank you for sharing your thoughts.
         | I particularly enjoyed your depiction of security products.
         | 
         | Years ago, I advocated strongly for threat modelling and
         | bringing the process "to the masses". I was a security
         | consultant, it was easy for me to tell others what they should
         | do.
         | 
         | Then I started working as an "internal" in an company large
         | enough to offer me both many different perspectives and full
         | access to things that needed threat modelling. Architects and
         | developers I only interacted with as my "customers" became my
         | colleagues. And my point of view completely changed.
         | 
         | I agree with you: threat modelling, as it is "evangelized"
         | today faces strong resistance from business as an expensive and
         | negative activity. The infrequent times it is enjoyed, reasons
         | are not those we think: threat modelling is really a "cool"
         | experience when done correctly, participants learn a lot of
         | things and usually enjoy the activity. Then comes the second
         | round. And the third. And that's where you see it hits a wall:
         | either you repeat the same thing, again and again, or
         | participants don't have the time.
         | 
         | Today, I still do threat modelling, and quite actively. On my
         | own, as you said. My colleagues don't even know I use this
         | process to prepare my internal publications. I write threat
         | advisories, which I then send to a little more than 300
         | architects, developers and project managers worldwide. My
         | recommendations are the output of a threat modelling process,
         | these advisories fly into the field in a "finished" state.
         | Threat modelling leverages its full strength in environments
         | that can benefit from high capitalization of thought, such as
         | when you deal with a large number of silos/teams that are
         | exposed to very similar problems.
         | 
         | There is a very simple trick to catch wannabe threat modellers:
         | look for threat models that include a "validate all input"
         | recommendation or alike. If you see this in a threat model, you
         | know you are dealing with someone who hasn't actually
         | understood what threat modelling is and is simply repeating
         | some tricks learned the evening before. I could also talk about
         | what I think of security vendors that try to sell threat
         | modelling as some sort of "transferable" skill, which can be
         | taught in one or two days to non-security professionals. But I
         | will refrain.
         | 
         | Now about the manifesto. In my opinion, Adam Shostack deserves
         | full credit, not for inventing threat modelling but for
         | actually formalizing the process in its most efficient and
         | final form (i.e. the 4 threat modelling "questions"). All
         | attempts to complete his work (e.g. books, methodologies,
         | articles, etc.) following his release of the 4 questions are
         | nothing more that complicated "techniques" to derive threats
         | from a diagram or a specification.
        
         | A_No_Name_Mouse wrote:
         | Your comment resonates with me but I'm not sure I fully
         | understand it: "compliance transfers risk out of the project
         | and onto the standard/model": If I choose to be compliant to a
         | standard, some of the risks are mitigated, not transferred;
         | some risks I have that are not covered by the standard are not
         | mitigated or transferred, but still unknown, because I chose
         | not to look into the threats (but just comply with some
         | standard). So how does it transfer risk out of a project?
         | 
         | "A business PM won't problematize those things because it will
         | demand a solution that gets in their critical path. The best
         | they can do is manage it": If you identify a risk you can still
         | choose to accept it and do nothing to mitigate it. So why does
         | it demand a solution?
         | 
         | "you've reduced the flexibility of the business to manage that
         | risk": Why? Again, risk identification does not automatically
         | mean risk mitigation. If you're aware of a risk you may choose
         | to detect problems instead of prevent them from happening. How
         | else would you be able to manage risk if you are not even aware
         | of it?
         | 
         | Maybe your comment is related to something I have experienced.
         | I often think about a theoretical situation related to the
         | movie the Matrix. Suppose there exists a complete risk analysis
         | that provides insight into every aspect of risk for a company.
         | By taking the red pill responsible management would instantly
         | see all these risks, but it cannot be "unseen", so they would
         | have to act to reduce them to acceptable levels (taking away
         | resources that would otherwise be devoted to business
         | functionality). Would they take the red pill or the blue pill?
         | I think most managers would choose to stay ignorant.
         | 
         | [edit: wording]
        
           | lmkg wrote:
           | > some risks I have that are not covered by the standard are
           | not mitigated or transferred
           | 
           | If you're compliant with a regulation or a standard, then
           | you're not _liable_ for failures of those standards.
           | 
           | I think there's an implicit assumption that the harm of a
           | failure will fall on users/consumers/some other third party,
           | rather than yourself. In this case, the "risk" is liability
           | for damages, rather than actual damages. If you roll your own
           | risk-management strategy, then you assume responsibility for
           | its failures. If you follow a blessed external standard, then
           | you transfer responsibility to the standard. So the risk of a
           | failure is not fully mitigated, but your risk of being liable
           | for that failure is. Which, to GP's point, disincentivizes
           | exploring novel approaches that mitigate the risk of real
           | failures.
        
             | A_No_Name_Mouse wrote:
             | Thanks. In this context it makes perfect sense.
        
         | clairity wrote:
         | while i appreciate the insights you bring to bear on the actual
         | behavior of organizations and teams, your response seems to be
         | resigned to accepting the status quo rather than working to
         | change the incentives so that security risks and damages are
         | internalized appropriately.
         | 
         | this kind of excuse-making is how we slide down various
         | slippery slopes (e.g., how google's "don't be evil" eventually
         | failed), even with eyes wide open. instead, the better response
         | is to advocate legislative and organizational improvements
         | while also working within your perceived constraints. it can be
         | both, not either-or.
        
           | motohagiography wrote:
           | This comment expresses a misunderstanding. Merely not
           | believing hard enough is not why threat modelling has failed.
           | There is an incentive mechanism and this description of it
           | can help them re-orient their strategy.
           | 
           | The counterfactual premise of threat modelling is that a
           | business wants responsibility for mitigating or remediating
           | risk without direct compensation, instead of a method to
           | manage and transfer it. A technologist is just happy to solve
           | problems, so they don't see this open loop as a source of
           | value.
        
         | __jf__ wrote:
         | Most of the compliance paperwork I've seen does leave room for
         | custom risk assessments, threat modeling or other wordings that
         | invite a business team to do more. However in their rush to go
         | live or otherwise get it over with this security work is done
         | after all other things. It isn't integrated, in an SDLC for
         | example.
         | 
         | So minimum standards become maximum standards. It's hard work
         | convincing teams to do better, but at least the compliance docs
         | give permission to develop your own, often better,
         | understanding if the data classification is high enough. It
         | doesn't happen often but I havent abandoned all hope yet.
        
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       (page generated 2021-02-07 23:02 UTC)