[HN Gopher] On the dangers of seeing human minds as predictive m...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       On the dangers of seeing human minds as predictive machines
        
       Author : dangerman
       Score  : 74 points
       Date   : 2021-02-01 21:46 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (aeon.co)
 (TXT) w3m dump (aeon.co)
        
       | abellerose wrote:
       | Rene Descartes ruined the perception and healthcare of mental
       | illness. Patients and even a few doctors would be more informed
       | if they understood the symptoms of mental illness occur because
       | of physical changes in the brain. Instead a misinformed belief of
       | a chemical imbalance exists and is assumed as a truth by some
       | physicians & nurses.
       | 
       | Society is basically brainwashed into believing everyone has free
       | will. The result is that people with the most capital prosper and
       | I assume the foregoing wouldn't be the case if everyone was a
       | determinist.
        
         | solipsism wrote:
         | > if they understood the symptoms of mental illness occur
         | because of physical changes in the brain. Instead a misinformed
         | belief of a chemical imbalance exists
         | 
         | What's the difference? And how does that difference impact how
         | people are treated by physicians and nurses?
        
           | danaliv wrote:
           | I read "physical changes" as structural changes in neurons
           | and neural connections themselves, as opposed to the (at
           | least popular) thinking that mental illness is down to
           | imbalances in neurotransmitters. There's at least some
           | research around this related to addiction, namely that
           | overexpression of DFosB produces changes to neurons in the
           | reward pathways.
        
         | psyc wrote:
         | Mentally ill person here. I haven't heard a mental health
         | professional use the phrase 'chemical imbalance' or anything
         | similar in 20 years. It's my understanding it has been
         | deprecated. It's mostly repeated by laypeople in ignorance.
         | It's hard to flush something like that out of the popular
         | lexicon, once established.
         | 
         | There's a lot of maddeningly persistent misinformation about
         | mental health on Internet forums.
        
           | dboreham wrote:
           | I'm fairly sure I've seen tv drug ads in the past few years
           | use the phrase "chemical imbalance".
        
             | psyc wrote:
             | They have a clear incentive to exaggerate a) the
             | effectiveness of the drugs, and b) how well they understand
             | how they work. There is an important distinction between
             | knowing how drugs affect brain chemistry, vs knowing how
             | they alleviate symptoms. The latter is still more empirical
             | than theoretical.
        
           | Gibbon1 wrote:
           | The widespread and increasing use of psychotropic drugs says
           | that 'chemical imbalance' still serves as the foundation.
        
           | abellerose wrote:
           | Person with gender dysphoria here. I've still heard the
           | phrase in Canada by nurses & staff. Also heard it several
           | years ago when living in USA by doctors & staff. Unsure why
           | you think I was referring to internet forums? I thought those
           | were deprecated since 2009.
        
             | psyc wrote:
             | https://www.google.com/search?q=chemical+imbalance+theory
        
               | abellerose wrote:
               | Unsure why you're linking that. Do you not realize by my
               | first comment that I'm describing the theory as nonsense
               | compared to what I wrote? edit: ah thanks for the
               | clarification.
        
               | psyc wrote:
               | My intent was to support your comment, not contradict it.
               | By reassuring anyone who might read this that the
               | chemical imbalance angle has rightly fallen out of favor.
        
         | SummerlyMars wrote:
         | > Society is basically brainwashed into believing everyone has
         | free will. The result is that people with the most capital
         | prosper and I assume the foregoing wouldn't be the case if
         | everyone was a determinist.
         | 
         | Why do you assume this? If everyone believed in determinism
         | rather than free will, couldn't those with the most capital
         | (deterministically) say "Well, that's just the way it should
         | be. They can't choose to be different."
         | 
         | I'm not inclined to think that will is all that free, but I
         | can't seem to see the connection between that and capitalism.
        
           | abellerose wrote:
           | The understanding of free will being an "illusion" opens a
           | few doors for approaching life. One of them being how society
           | is structured and regarding healthcare, housing, finances,
           | education..
           | 
           | Anyway, people cast their votes by the beliefs as well and
           | currently we're living in social systems designed from the
           | belief of have free will. The idea of someone earned what
           | they have, contrary to someone worse off and people aren't
           | just destined by their life circumstances to end up homeless.
           | Genetics, environmental factors and all proceeding moments
           | are factored from the preceding forces.
           | 
           | Well, when you realize the foregoing about free will is
           | untrue and you really take the time to adapt your thinking to
           | the understanding of free will being illusion. I assume you
           | become more compassionate because you're actually observing
           | reality for how it truly is awful to some and those people
           | had no control for their misfortune. I know from my own life
           | when I understood it took a few years to truly get "it" but
           | after I deeply feel more empathetic and disgusted by the
           | current systems that refuse people the medical help they need
           | or getting someone shelter & food.
           | 
           | Everyone is just assigned a life at birth without any say and
           | that's the same to what happens after without any real
           | control existing to alter your destiny. So a nihilist can say
           | well so what?..everything is just destined. But that doesn't
           | mean we should keep stalling people from being educated of
           | how reality happens to be and designing better social systems
           | that adapt to the true reality of the universe. Anyway that's
           | my long rant/suggestion on it.
        
             | pdonis wrote:
             | _> when you realize the foregoing about free will is untrue
             | and you really take the time to adapt your thinking to the
             | understanding of free will being illusion. I assume you
             | become more compassionate_
             | 
             | You assume wrong. The most brutal totalitarian governments
             | in history have been built on the same understanding of
             | humans that you describe. So that understanding can go
             | either way: it can make you more compassionate, _or_ it can
             | make you much _less_ so.
             | 
             | Free will is best understood not as a "fact" but as a
             | right. Every person has the _right_ to make their own
             | choices instead of someone else making those choices for
             | them. And the most dehumanizing thing you can tell a person
             | is that they are  "destined by circumstances" (your phrase)
             | to be in the situation they are in, instead of having the
             | power to change it by the choices they make.
             | 
             | Sure, the power to make one's own choices is not unlimited.
             | We can't choose to not be affected by gravity. We can't
             | choose to be omnipotent or omniscient. And, most important,
             | we can't choose how _other_ people will make their own
             | choices (more on that below). But that doesn 't change the
             | fact that people do make choices, and can change their
             | situation by doing so. The proper role of compassion and
             | charity is to help empower people to make better choices
             | for themselves.
             | 
             | And the proper understanding of situations where some
             | people are deprived of basic necessities through no fault
             | of their own is not that it was just "destined by
             | circumstances", but that _other people_ made choices that
             | _created_ those situations. Trying to hand-wave that away
             | and pretend that things like famines and homelessness are
             | just accidents of nature, instead of products of deliberate
             | choices made by particular people in power--the whole  "how
             | society is structured" that you slide by without really
             | looking at where it comes from--only makes those problems
             | worse.
        
               | abellerose wrote:
               | Feel free to email me for further discussion. I have the
               | impression you don't understand my definition of free
               | will compared to your own definition. I will express here
               | that the idea of making a conclusion by the past in
               | history isn't fair or even comparable to what I could
               | argue against people doing under the belief that people
               | have free will. Anyway I'm not convinced by what you've
               | expressed against my views and would appreciate a longer
               | discussion by email if you're up to it. I fundamentally
               | think it's morally wrong to keep someone in the dark from
               | reality by deceiving them about their will or life
               | outcome and especially if that person is homeless or
               | suicidal for example.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | _> Feel free to email me for further discussion._
               | 
               | Why not just have the discussion here?
               | 
               |  _> I have the impression you don 't understand my
               | definition of free will compared to your own definition._
               | 
               | I think you are trading on the ambiguity in the term
               | "free will" to avoid having to confront the actual issues
               | involved. That's why I used the less ambiguous term
               | "making choices".
               | 
               | If you don't think people can ever make choices that make
               | a difference in their situation, then you and I have a
               | fundamental disagreement that I don't think will get
               | resolved by any discussion. Also, if that's your belief,
               | I think you are being inconsistent; you talk about
               | "designing better social systems", but that very process
               | involves people making choices that will make a
               | difference in their situation (as well as the situation
               | of many, many other people).
               | 
               | If you just think the _amount_ of difference a person can
               | make in their situation by making choices varies with the
               | situation, of course I agree with that. But that 's not a
               | problem that can be fixed by "designing better social
               | systems". It can only be fixed by being willing to call a
               | spade a spade when people in power make choices that
               | disempower others, so that people in power can be
               | _stopped_ from doing that. The biggest barrier to people
               | being able to change their situation by making choices is
               | restrictions put on them by other people, not some
               | abstract claim about free will being an illusion.
               | "Designing social systems" makes that problem worse, not
               | better.
               | 
               |  _> I fundamentally think it 's morally wrong to keep
               | someone in the dark from reality by deceiving them about
               | their will or life outcome_
               | 
               | I think you are confusing your opinions with "reality".
               | Telling people they don't have free will, or that free
               | will is an illusion, is just as much of an opinion as
               | telling them they _do_ have free will. Neither is a
               | statement of  "reality". That's why I say free will is
               | best viewed as a right: because in my opinion, believing
               | that people have free will is respecting their right to
               | make their own choices, and believing that people don't
               | have free will is _not_ respecting that right--which just
               | means arrogating to yourself the power to make choices
               | that disempower them. Respecting people 's right to make
               | choices is not a factual claim about people; it's a
               | policy, which I think should be adopted because it will
               | end up helping people.
               | 
               |  _> especially if that person is homeless or suicidal for
               | example_
               | 
               | I don't see how it's any help to a person who is homeless
               | or suicidal to tell them free will is an illusion. Nor
               | would it be any help to tell them it isn't. A person who
               | is homeless or suicidal has much more pressing things to
               | think about than whether or not free will is an illusion.
               | And helping such a person has nothing at all to do with
               | your own opinions or beliefs, much less foisting them on
               | others in the guise of "telling them about reality".
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | _> what I could argue against people doing under the
               | belief that people have free will_
               | 
               | What sorts of terrible things do you think people do
               | under the belief that people have free will?
        
               | Layke1123 wrote:
               | I fully believe my decisions and actions are largely
               | determined long before I am fully aware of what is taking
               | place.
               | 
               | This doesn't make me despair or not care to do anything,
               | but makes me extremely resilient and adaptable to
               | changing situations. I can acknowledge that no matter
               | what I want to do, I cannot stop my leg from twitching
               | when someone hits the nerve underneath my kneecap.
               | 
               | I also accept that if I make bad decisions because of an
               | addiction or deficient reasoning process, I willingly
               | would accept a mechanism to correct said process or
               | improve my deficiency.
               | 
               | It's not that free will is necessary to understand
               | reality. It's that free will is necessary for YOUR
               | reality. Some of us get along just peachy without it.
        
               | mongol wrote:
               | I agree with almost everything except that to say that
               | famine and homeless can be caused both by human choices
               | and accidents or events outside of human control.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | _> famine and homeless can be caused both by human
               | choices and accidents or events outside of human control_
               | 
               | Yes, I agree that accidents or events outside human
               | control can cause bad things to happen. I would also
               | point out, though, that _how_ bad those things get has
               | far more to do with human choices. There are many choices
               | that people can make to be better prepared for accidents
               | and events outside their control if and when they happen.
        
           | Layke1123 wrote:
           | They will think its justified, just like the masses will
           | justify taking all the hoarded wealth. Fairly distributing
           | capital and power is the only reasonable solution in a world
           | that is so obviously deterministic.
        
             | wizzwizz4 wrote:
             | Never underestimate the adaptability of rhetoric.
        
               | Layke1123 wrote:
               | While cute, it misses the point. If I say a car is
               | coming, it is then up to the person to decide whether
               | they step into the street or not. This is not a
               | rhetorical argument.
        
       | smolder wrote:
       | They're flawed, exploitable predictive machines.
        
       | 0thgen wrote:
       | The author writes about how describing humans as predictive
       | engines will 'encourage us to reduce our fellow humans to mere
       | pieces of machinery'
       | 
       | ^ this is pretty much a fluff statement. it's basically a hand-
       | wavey sliperry slope argument that can be made about any theory
       | in animal/human research.
       | 
       | i could also make the claim that thinking about humans as
       | predictive learning engines will encourage to consider our
       | deterministic nature and have more compassion for eachother <--
       | both my and the author's claims lack any substantial evidence
        
         | passivate wrote:
         | A few non-fluff sentences:
         | 
         | "Consequential decisions in law enforcement, military and
         | financial contexts are increasingly influenced by automated
         | assessments spat out by proprietary predictive engines."
         | 
         | "These prediction engines have primed us to be receptive to the
         | idea of the predictive brain. So too has the science of
         | psychology itself, which has been concerned since its founding
         | with the prediction and control of human beings. 'All natural
         | sciences aim at practical prediction and control, and in none
         | of them is this more the case than in psychology today,"
         | 
         | "Advertising agencies would fund their own experiments by
         | researchers such as Watson to test the laws of the consumer-
         | machines that they targeted, rationalising their understandings
         | of phenomena such as habitual product use, targeted messaging
         | and brand loyalty."
         | 
         | " Simulmatics has become, in Lepore's words:
         | the mission of nearly every corporation. Collect data. Write
         | code: if/then/else. Detect patterns. Predict behaviour. Direct
         | action. Encourage consumption. Influence elections. "
         | 
         | "Scientists might believe that they are simply building
         | conceptual and mechanical tools for observation and
         | understanding - the telescopes and microscopes of the
         | neuroscientific age. But the tools of observation can be
         | fastened all too easily to the end of a weapon and targeted at
         | masses of people. If predictive systems began as weapons meant
         | to make humans controllable in the field of war and in the
         | market, that gives us extra reason to question those who wield
         | such weapons now"
         | 
         | >" thinking about humans as predictive learning engines will
         | encourage to consider our deterministic nature and have more
         | compassion for eachother"
         | 
         | OK, let us consider that too. What would be the underlying
         | mechanism of this? How would we be primed/conditioned into
         | adopting this behavior? Examples? Proposed models/theories/etc?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | wombatmobile wrote:
           | The author wants society to be more compassionate and less
           | exploitative. That's all.
           | 
           | Why?
           | 
           | To make life more enjoyable and less challenging for
           | everybody.
           | 
           | Imagine a world in which the resources of e.g. Facebook were
           | dedicated towards increasing happiness and usefulness through
           | connecting people to sources of emotional satisfaction,
           | rather than increasing shareholder wealth through targeted
           | advertising.
           | 
           | How?
           | 
           | The author doesn't say.
           | 
           | The challenge is to think of an economic system in which
           | vendors can act selfishly but consumers benefit virtuously.
           | One example is the car industry. Before Henry Ford brought
           | mass transit and higher wages to society, individuals had
           | less freedom, fewer choices, and more dependency on feudal
           | overlords.
           | 
           | The problem so far with the digital economy is that it hasn't
           | yielded the same transition in society, at least, not so
           | obviously. In many ways it's the opposite. More engagement
           | leads to more frustration and unhappiness.
           | 
           | The rise of surveillance capitalism is negative for personal
           | development because it is based on an economic model of
           | exploitation i.e. spying to make ads sell more stuff. To
           | change this, advertising would have to change so that the KPI
           | are not just clicks and conversions and blind revenue. The
           | KPI should be consumer satisfaction and personal development,
           | and societal development. That's not impossible. It just
           | hasn't been done yet.
        
       | rck wrote:
       | Many words, few ideas. I was hoping for an argument based on ...
       | well, anything. There's no real criticism of the scientific
       | support for the idea that human minds are predictive. Just some
       | vague connections to economics and a vocabulary that suggests
       | anti-capitalist sympathies. Your attention is better spent
       | elsewhere.
        
         | Layke1123 wrote:
         | If our attention is better spent elsewhere, why then did you
         | spend effort and attention reading it and then trying to relate
         | anti-capitalist rhetoric here? Is it possible that you have an
         | overly attached fondness to the term capitalism and can't
         | handle any rebuke of the term?
        
           | Layke1123 wrote:
           | Can someone point out why I'm being downvoted? Or respond to
           | my comment rather than just shutting down discourse?
        
             | wizzwizz4 wrote:
             | Perhaps your criticism of the bad comment was too
             | rhetorical.
        
             | meowkit wrote:
             | You write dismissively of capitalism is my first note.
             | 
             | Capitalism isn't the boogie man people make it out to be.
             | It's the optimization criteria for increasing financial
             | capital over other forms of capital (natural, labor, etc),
             | and corporatocracy.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatocracy
        
               | Layke1123 wrote:
               | Is writing dismissively of capitalism not OK? Can you
               | make the argument that capitalism was and is always a
               | force of good in the world? Is plutocracy considered a
               | good and righteous thing?
        
       | r34 wrote:
       | More and more I'm convinced that in the set of all possible
       | search spaces, the most important is the pleasure-driven search
       | space. But some well constructed knowledge skeleton let's one
       | explore it (starting) at a higher level.
       | 
       | That's how I see it: to build the scaffolding on ratio, and start
       | flying from there. But it's always important to be able to land
       | back and not to get lost completely - because the outer space is
       | simply uncomfortably unknown.
       | 
       | That's why amongst all the writers (or more generally - creators)
       | I enjoy most those who have both solid knowledge and brave
       | imagination.
        
       | Sparkyte wrote:
       | Is it really predictive or just conformative? It's kind of bad
       | nomeclature to assume that an outcome is guaranteed. We asses and
       | weigh circumstances that's not predictive that's coping. We as
       | human cope within a conformed environment and that's how we
       | think. Failure to act accordingly is punishment and correctly
       | reward. All learned coping behaviors.
        
       | Veedrac wrote:
       | If I've understood this article correctly, the thesis is that we
       | should avoid trying to understand the mind, because understanding
       | the mind is inevitably about controlling and subverting human
       | behaviour to worse ends, and that it also legitimizes those ends
       | by dehumanizing people.
       | 
       | I am, mind, not totally sure I have understood the article,
       | because the article is not written very clearly, as the point is
       | never stated without vagueness and allusion. Perhaps this comes
       | from the author's worries about the negative effects of
       | understanding things.
        
         | SllX wrote:
         | Well, depends on your moral strictures.
         | 
         | A functional understanding of how someone else thinks whether
         | on a personal basis or more generally or categorically is
         | useful and actionable information.
         | 
         | What you do with that is up to you, but if you're not using
         | information, someone else is.
        
         | cmehdy wrote:
         | This reminds me of the typical criticisms that Daniel
         | Dennett[0] has faced throughout the decades where he tried to
         | argue the point that we can talk about consciousness through
         | similar tools as those of computation (amongst other things)
         | and that there isn't a reason to put humans on a magical
         | pedestal of immunity from further understanding.
         | 
         | There's some anchored belief that humans are somehow sacred
         | beyond understanding and that logic that we happily apply to a
         | cricket or a star has to be thrown out the window when we try
         | to touch the sanctity of humanity. I recall Dennett pointing
         | out how starting from Descartes the whole meme of the person
         | within your brain doing things (present day example: see
         | Pixar's Inside Out) is a way to put a wall around the thing
         | that scientists want to poke at for more understanding. The guy
         | turning switches in the brain is God, and you just can't test
         | it and should accept it as gospel, i.e. the "don't question
         | God" type of thing.
         | 
         | Making the unknown a thing from beyond is how we (used to)
         | avoid being scared of death too. I've always been wary of that
         | attitude, and the tech world is not immune to that by the way
         | (these days a good one is "don't question the absolute power of
         | technology to solve the climate crisis").
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Dennett#Philosophy_of_m...
        
           | yters wrote:
           | It could also be the case the human mind transcends
           | computation, i.e. a transfinite, yet limited, halting oracle,
           | and as such is logically impossible to reduce to a Turing
           | machine. To insist this is not the case merely based on
           | materialism is begging the question. It is a very simple and
           | formally rigorous point, but gets obscure by high fallutin
           | philosophical language like "reductionism".
        
             | Thiez wrote:
             | Is there any reason to believe that the human mind has
             | these amazing computation-transcending powers? What would
             | be the mechanism behind it?
             | 
             | Unless there is evidence for these suggested special powers
             | of the human mind, it looks to me like another instance of
             | Russell's teapot.
        
               | yters wrote:
               | Programming is one of the most obvious. Mathematics is
               | another. Human success in both is easiest to explain if
               | we are halting oracles of some variety, albeit not
               | perfect, but still transfinite.
        
               | Thiez wrote:
               | So you don't have any concrete examples, just broad
               | topics that you have a vague feeling about?
               | 
               | I guess I am not truly human because I can't solve the
               | halting problem in the general case. I'm probably also
               | subject to Godel's incompleteness theorem.
        
           | MaxBarraclough wrote:
           | > I recall Dennett pointing out how starting from Descartes
           | the whole meme of the person within your brain doing things
           | 
           | I like Dennett's coinage for this error of reasoning: the
           | _Cartesian theater_. If a theory of mind relies upon some
           | _inner_ mind, it hasn 't explained the mind at all.
           | 
           |  _edit_ I see it has its own Wikipedia article:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartesian_theater
        
           | thisiszilff wrote:
           | A particularly choice quote from Dijkstra here:
           | 
           | "The question of whether machines can think is about as
           | relevant as the question of whether submarines can swim."
           | 
           | In this case I guess it's the other way around, but the
           | sentiment still stands.
        
             | mannykannot wrote:
             | Dijkstra, who valued rigor, was apparently greatly
             | irritated by loose talk of computers as thinking machines
             | and the use of teleological language in discussing them (in
             | the sense of attributing purposes to programs, rather than
             | their creators), so this quote could just be a reaction to
             | that. If, on the other hand, it was offered in the spirit
             | of "(artificial) machines could not possibly think, because
             | thinking is something only (human) animals can do", that
             | would just be a way of avoiding the question.
        
       | ilaksh wrote:
       | "..it becomes all too easy for us to slip into adversarial and
       | exploitative framings of the human"
       | 
       | That is inherent in the structure of society and largely
       | supported by worldviews in many cases unfortunately.
       | 
       | Personally I think that there are a couple of problems. One is
       | with worldviews that oversimplify along the dimension of
       | cooperative versus competitive. The second part which reinforces
       | the first is that it's actually quite difficult to make a
       | framework that really works without being overly competitive or
       | cooperative or tending towards extreme centralization.
       | 
       | My worldview is centered on technology and so of course I think
       | that is a key part of the solution. Money and government must
       | become high technologies. Decentralized approaches have the
       | potential to provide not only the freedom to evolve but the
       | capacity to operate holistically at the same time.
        
       | zoomablemind wrote:
       | > _"...Human beings aren't pieces of technology, no matter how
       | sophisticated. But by talking about ourselves as such, we
       | acquiesce to the corporations and governments that decide to
       | treat us this way. When the seers of predictive processing hail
       | prediction as the brain's defining achievement, they risk giving
       | groundless credibility to the systems that automate that act -
       | assigning the patina of intelligence to artificial predictors, no
       | matter how crude or harmful or self-fulfilling their forecasts.
       | "_
       | 
       | This seems to summarize the main thesis.
       | 
       | Modeling/simulating human effects by applying various
       | technological approximations may be useful within the intended
       | scope. However, expanding that scope and projecting the models
       | onto the whole phenomenon of human brain is false, if not
       | dangerous. The only purpose this sort of unwarranted projection
       | serves is to justify the applied methods and the resulting
       | treatment of humans.
       | 
       | And why all these attempts to 'crack' the brain? The author
       | posits that the main goal is control.
       | 
       | But why one would need such a control? To subjugate, to make the
       | world a better place, to live forever, or just make a quick buck
       | and squirrel it away...? What do predictions tell about the
       | ultimate intent?
        
         | UnFleshedOne wrote:
         | Like any technology I'm sure such understanding will be used
         | for all of the above and then some.
        
       | PeterStuer wrote:
       | Best line: "If software has eaten the world, its predictive
       | engines have digested it, and we are living in the society it
       | spat out."
        
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       (page generated 2021-02-02 23:01 UTC)