[HN Gopher] Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in
       global trial
        
       Author : heyheyheysome
       Score  : 90 points
       Date   : 2021-01-29 14:56 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cbc.ca)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cbc.ca)
        
       | GizmoSwan wrote:
       | 66% effectiveness in one shot is better than 50% - 1/2 shots
       | where there is not enough vaccines to go around.
       | 
       | In some places people are not getting both shots of vaccines. FDA
       | approved two different shots of 2 shot vaccines.
       | 
       | At this time they should just immunize everybody with one shot at
       | least.
        
         | fattire wrote:
         | Would a partial or half immunized population not end up
         | culturing a more resistant strain?
        
           | syntheticnature wrote:
           | This isn't like antibiotics. The 66% is how many people are
           | provided some level of immunity, just reducing the infectible
           | population _; it doesn 't directly cause issues for the virus
           | the way an antibiotic interferes with the functioning of a
           | bacterium. It might culture a strain that's better at
           | infecting folks for whom the vaccine doesn't prove effective,
           | if there's a common factor there and the virus can use it.
           | 
           | _It is not yet known if any of the vaccines completely
           | prevent infection; there are concerns the vaccinated might
           | still be able to be asymptomatic carriers.
        
             | fattire wrote:
             | Yeah I guess I was asking if having only partial-immunity
             | effectively acts as a filter or creates pressure so that
             | rarer mutated strains make it through and are given a
             | pathway to infection/reproduction.
             | 
             | From your response: "It might culture a strain that's
             | better at infecting folks for whom the vaccine doesn't
             | prove effective, if there's a common factor there and the
             | virus can use it." it sounds like the answer is yes.
        
               | syntheticnature wrote:
               | It might make it through, but in that case it would be
               | better adapted for those the vaccine didn't work on; this
               | could actually make it less infectious for those the
               | vaccine would work on, so it's questionable whether it
               | would be any better or worse overall.
        
           | elliekelly wrote:
           | Or could it end up culturing a more mild strain? More like a
           | common cold?
        
             | eganist wrote:
             | Worth pointing out that two of the viruses[0][1]
             | responsible for the Common Cold share the same exact Family
             | (in fact, the exact Genus[2]) as SARS-CoV-2 [3].
             | 
             | This isn't to say that the progression is certainly in this
             | direction (better evidence of that dates back to 2009 [4]),
             | but hey, there's hope that that's the direction.
             | 
             | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_HKU1
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43
             | 
             | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoronavirus
             | 
             | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_
             | syndr...
             | 
             | [4] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/pandemic-
             | payoff/
        
         | cj wrote:
         | Have any trials been done to determine the efficacy of just 1
         | shot for the double dose vaccines?
        
           | GizmoSwan wrote:
           | Yes they have data for results of 1 shot of 2 shot vaccines.
           | 
           | Moderna has 80% in single shot I believe but it degrades over
           | time so there is a second shot.
           | 
           | The 66% that does not degrade and can be kept in room
           | temperature is not bad at all. Most vaccines are not 90%.
           | Most flu vaccine don't cover all different types but they
           | still protect people as they get some sort of immunity to
           | major types A,B etc.
        
           | yread wrote:
           | Not yet, but you can kinda see it from the data. For Pfizer
           | it was 60-70 after one dose already, iirc
        
             | bpodgursky wrote:
             | That's only if you include all infections within the two
             | week window between shots. If you look at the tail end (ie,
             | after the shot has time to be effective) it seems more like
             | 90.
        
               | zeku wrote:
               | The issue with this is that it's the SECOND shot that
               | gives you your long term immunity. If you only get one
               | shot your immunity is allegedly going to wane somewhat
               | quickly.
               | 
               | edit: for pfizer & moderna.
        
       | SubiculumCode wrote:
       | imo 66% effectiveness is pretty good, not on a personal level,
       | but at the population policy level. I'm glad to get another
       | vaccine on the market soon.
        
         | foepys wrote:
         | On the other hand it's quite sad that we as humanity have
         | already developed two vaccines with 95% (or even higher)
         | effectiveness but are not able (or rather: are too greedy) to
         | share this knowledge to vaccine every human on earth as fast as
         | possible.
         | 
         | Instead the US and Europe are putting trade restrictions in
         | place to keep the vaccines for themselves. India and China are
         | more than capable to produce the vaccines in insane quantities
         | but IP law doesn't let them.
        
           | aphextron wrote:
           | It's not a tech problem, it's a production problem. There are
           | only a few companies on earth that are capable of producing
           | the precursor chemicals for these mRNA vaccines, and until
           | now they were geared towards producing small batch research
           | drugs. They are expanding rapidly but production capacity is
           | at 100%.
        
       | mchusma wrote:
       | The contrast between the response to Astrazeneca and J&J is
       | striking. Similar efficacy numbers, but Astrazeneca is still
       | banned and got terrible headlines. J&J has all positive
       | headlines. I don't know if this is just because more time has
       | passed and people realize it was dumb to not approve Astrazeneca?
       | Is "Supercovid" just making people realize we can't wait around?
       | 
       | I think J&J, Astrazeneca, and Novavax all easily surpass the "net
       | expected benefit" threshold and should all be approved
       | immediately. In the US, this would allow us to end this thing
       | within 90 days.
        
         | geuis wrote:
         | The issue with Astrazeneca is that they messed up part of their
         | clinical trials.
         | 
         | The results weren't even negative. A subset of their trial
         | group received a different amount of vaccine which seemed to
         | show greater efficacy later.
         | 
         | The issue, and thus the "mistrust", is that if they messed up
         | that rather critical part of their clinical trials then what
         | else could they have messed up?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | GizmoSwan wrote:
         | Germany is approving Astrazeneca with some sort of limitation.
        
           | eli wrote:
           | It was just approved by the EU and is already being
           | distributed in the UK.
        
             | GizmoSwan wrote:
             | Yes but they don't have sufficient data for older adults on
             | it so that is the limitation.
        
         | mchusma wrote:
         | BTW - I do think it would be more helpful if you report on the
         | numbers between vaccines to use your primary metric as "100%
         | Effective at Preventing Death", then use 68% or whatever as
         | your secondary metric. This better reflects the differences
         | between the vaccines so far. All are amazing at protecting
         | against what people care about most.
        
         | UncleOxidant wrote:
         | Yeah, I don't get why the Astrazeneca vaccine approval in the
         | US is being delayed till (reportedly) March. Is it because
         | Pfizer and Moderna are US companies charging a lot more money
         | vs. Oxford/Astrazeneca being UK and not making any money on
         | their vaccine?
        
           | sterlind wrote:
           | I think it's because of the transverse myelitis scare during
           | AZ's Phase 3 tests, combined with AZ's dosage quality control
           | issues making it really hard to interpret efficacy data.
        
         | newacct583 wrote:
         | > In the US, this would allow us to end this thing within 90
         | days.
         | 
         | It... would not. We need half a million (edit: billion of
         | course, oops) doses to "end this thing", and those just aren't
         | going to be there from any combination of manufacturers. If
         | that kind of result was really on the table, a new
         | administration and congressional leadership would be moving
         | mountains to get that win.
         | 
         | But yes: AZ should probably be approved faster than it is and I
         | don't know what the delay is.
        
           | fdiskl wrote:
           | i think you mean half a billion (or milliard).
        
           | tzs wrote:
           | The most direct reason for the delay in approving the AZ
           | vaccine in the US is that as of early this month they had not
           | submitted for approval.
           | 
           | They are waiting for the results from a larger US-based
           | trial.
           | 
           | I'm not sure why they aren't going with the same trial data
           | they used to submit requests elsewhere, but it could have
           | something to do with the FDA approval process. The FDA
           | evaluates drug approval requests the way a lot of people were
           | saying the FAA should have evaluated Boeing's 737 Max
           | certification application.
           | 
           | The FDA takes your trial data and then does their own
           | analysis of safety and efficacy. They also have an
           | independent advisory committee that looks over both the
           | company's work and the FDA's work. Many other places, such as
           | the UK, rely more on trusting the company's analysis.
           | 
           | The AZ vaccine was the one that had the error in running the
           | trial that gave some people half of the dose they were
           | suppose to get, and the results suggested that results were
           | better for them than for those who got the full dose. The
           | trial wasn't designed to test half dose vs full dose, and so
           | the set of people who ended up getting half vs full are not
           | really a good set to draw conclusions from.
           | 
           | Perhaps AZ thinks that submitting based on a later trial
           | without that error will overall lead to faster approval than
           | submitting an earlier trial that would probably take longer
           | for the FDA and the independent advisory committee to
           | analyze?
        
         | Exmoor wrote:
         | I agree that the AZ vaccine was safe and should have been given
         | US approval. That said, this data is for a single dose compared
         | to AZ's two doses so it is a bit apples-to-oranges.
        
       | JamesBarney wrote:
       | 66% protection against getting moderate to severe Covid but 100%
       | protection against death and hospitalization.
       | 
       | I have no idea how the FDA can hold back these vaccines in good
       | conscience while peoples are dying by the thousands on a daily
       | basis.
        
         | _Understated_ wrote:
         | Sorry, but I take issue with that statement: 100% protection
         | against death and hospitalization for a tiny minority that are
         | susceptible.
         | 
         | Your statement makes it sound like everyone that gets it will
         | die when that is absolutely not true.
         | 
         | In fact, the statistics show the exact opposite: here in the
         | UK, for example, only around 400 people under the age of 70 (I
         | think!) that have no underlying symptoms, have actually died
         | from COVID.
         | 
         | Edit: Oh here we go again... drive-by downvotes. Care to state
         | your reasons?
        
           | thebruce87m wrote:
           | Excess mortality shows us ~100,000 _extra_ people died in the
           | UK since COVID started. Antibody testing suggests that this
           | was a result of ~10% of people being infected. I'll let you
           | do the maths for deaths due to herd immunity, and whether
           | that is a "tiny minority".
           | 
           | People at risk include people with diabetes and asthma.
           | 
           | In Scotland, the most hospital beds have been occupied by the
           | 45 - 64 age group. Not sure about other parts of the UK.
        
             | _Understated_ wrote:
             | > Excess mortality shows us ~100,000 extra people died in
             | the UK since COVID started.
             | 
             | It still doesn't negate the argument that it only affects
             | the vulnerable.
             | 
             | And those in the hospital beds: what were their conditions
             | while in there? What were their underlying health issues
             | (if any)? Did they recover?
             | 
             | I'm not saying people don't get sick, I'm saying the cure
             | is worse than the disease especially when the ones dying
             | are a tiny fraction of the population.
             | 
             | Edit: I live in Scotland - we have had the "sick man of
             | Europe" title for a long time and we have an obesity crisis
             | here [0]
             | 
             | [0] - https://www.obesityactionscotland.org/media/1026/obes
             | ityfact...
        
               | thebruce87m wrote:
               | In a "do nothing" scenario we would probably expect
               | hundreds of thousands more vulnerable people dying before
               | their time in the UK, along with who-knows how many 45-64
               | year olds (and other age groups) due to overwhelmed
               | hospitals. We've seen that overwhelmed hospitals can't do
               | normal things like cancer treatment either, so tally that
               | up too.
               | 
               | This is worth some inconvenience and higher taxes to me.
               | I guess some people have no vulnerable relatives and no
               | co-morbidities, or maybe value things like going to the
               | pub above their gran. Personally I would rather have my
               | 80 year old dad and 76 year old mum around for another
               | few years than spend a week in Tenerife this year.
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | I didn't advocate for "do nothing". Not at all.
               | 
               | I live in the UK and we have the NHS so their job is to
               | look after people when they get sick (and, to a certain
               | extent, use preventative measure like education where
               | appropriate).
               | 
               | But the UK governments largest spend is the NHS. We pay a
               | fortune every year for it. So if they can't do their job
               | then heads should roll among politicians and NHS brass.
               | 
               | My argument is that the death rate does not justify the
               | measures that are being taken: by all means protect the
               | vulnerable (my parents are in that class) but the rest of
               | us have been locked down when the stats absolutely do not
               | justify it.
               | 
               | I haven't even mentioned the economic cataclysm we are
               | facing... that's another story!
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | It isn't possible to protect the vulnerable while having
               | rampant covid in the young and healthy, society doesn't
               | work like that.
               | 
               | Here in New Zealand we isolate new arrivals in hotels and
               | they are strictly monitored. There are only a few
               | thousand people there at any given time, and despite the
               | huge effort, covid still escapes into the community every
               | so often.
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | > It isn't possible to protect the vulnerable while
               | having rampant covid in the young and healthy, society
               | doesn't work like that.
               | 
               | Then why do the numbers keep going up despite locking
               | down everyone? Why didn't governments institute a policy
               | that keeps people away from those in vulnerable groups
               | with a PS1000 fine for breaches? Mandated masks etc. That
               | would have been just as manageable. Lockdowns do not
               | work, the figures clearly show that yet people still
               | mandate for more lockdowns? I don't get it.
               | 
               | > and despite the huge effort, covid still escapes into
               | the community every so often.
               | 
               | yes, but who is dying from it? It's the old and
               | vulnerable, not the young and non-vulnerable: the vast
               | majority of people will not die from this!
               | 
               | The cure is worse than the disease.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | > Lockdowns do not work, the figures clearly show that
               | yet people still mandate for more lockdowns?
               | 
               | What figures show that lockdown doesn't work? I'm in New
               | Zealand. We had community covid multiple times and have
               | eradicated it (with lockdowns initially).
               | 
               | Keep in mind that our initial lockdown was very strict,
               | particularly compared to UK style lockdowns.
               | 
               | In the UK the cases are falling fast, why do you say
               | otherwise? There are less new cases each day.
               | 
               | No one is dying from covid here and hasn't for a long
               | time, touch wood, hopefully that continues.
               | 
               | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
        
           | nsxwolf wrote:
           | I would take a vaccine just to catch one less common cold a
           | year. I'll gladly take the COVID-19 vaccine just to prevent
           | common cold symptoms.
           | 
           | And if it would actually end the pandemic and let me go into
           | a store without a %$@#&#@ mask, I'd gladly swallow the
           | syringe whole, sideways.
        
           | JamesBarney wrote:
           | 1. I've never met anyone in the last year who thought Covid
           | had a 100% death rate. Do you know anyone who believes this?
           | 
           | > In fact, the statistics show the exact opposite: here in
           | the UK, for example, only around 400 people under the age of
           | 70 (I think!) that have no underlying symptoms, have actually
           | died from COVID.
           | 
           | Over 10,000 people under age 70 have died from covid, why
           | does it matter if they have underlying symptoms?
        
             | _Understated_ wrote:
             | I meant "underlying conditions", not underlying symptoms...
             | that's my fault.
             | 
             | So, basically, if you are healthy, your chances are
             | absolutely tiny that you will die if you catch it.
             | 
             | So, yeah, it matters a whole lot actually.
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | Given that high blood pressure, and being overweight are
               | concidered underlying conditions, people with "no
               | underlying conditions" might be < 20% of the total
               | population.
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | We're talking about serious stuff: cancer, immune
               | disorders, diabetes, obesity etc.
        
               | orwin wrote:
               | High blood pressure is a serious underlying condition
               | (and counted as an underlying condition in Covid death).
               | Obesity is counted as an underlying condition at stage 1
               | (between 30 and 35 BMI).
        
               | armadsen wrote:
               | Exactly. Obesity alone means ~40% of the population of
               | the US, and ~30% of the UK have an underlying condition
               | as far as COVID risk goes.
        
               | akuchling wrote:
               | But most people are unhealthy, with one condition or
               | another. It's misleading to throw out most of the
               | population and then say "but look how small the numbers
               | are for the sliver that's left!"
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | That's not an argument...
               | 
               | Healthy is subjective but when you say it like that then,
               | yes, everyone has something.
               | 
               | However, there are a bunch of things that will greatly
               | increase your chances of dying from COVID: diabetes,
               | obesity, cancer, immune-related illnesses so this is what
               | I am referring to. It's fair to say that people with one
               | or more of those (not an exhaustive list) are
               | "unhealthy".
               | 
               | So, it's not misleading: it's people who are vulnerable
               | either due to age or health reasons that are at risk of
               | dying, no one else.
               | 
               | It was even raised by an MP recently and he asked Boris
               | Johnston why we're getting locked down when only 400 or
               | so people with no underlying conditions have died...
               | everyone else had underlying conditions related to poor
               | health that made them susceptible so they should have
               | been locked down and the rest of us left to get on with
               | things.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | > everyone else had underlying conditions related to poor
               | health that made them susceptible so they should have
               | been locked down and the rest of us left to get on with
               | things.
               | 
               | This seems wildly expensive and impractical. Who's going
               | to take care of all those people? Where are you going to
               | house them (many of them live with people without those
               | conditions)? Do you know how many people have diabetes,
               | just to grab the first item off your list?
        
               | Vinceo wrote:
               | Do you think it's more expensive than the way we do it
               | now?
        
           | Grimm1 wrote:
           | "Chest X-rays of asymptomatic patients - those infected but
           | without symptoms - exhibited a severe chest X-ray 70%-80% of
           | the time, but those with COVID-19 symptoms had one every
           | time, she also added."
           | 
           | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/01/26/fac.
           | ..
           | 
           | There are things that can make living quite uncomfortable. So
           | while yes not everyone will be hospitalized and die, there is
           | still a lot of reasons to get any decently effective vaccine.
           | 
           | Edit:
           | 
           | "Bankhead-Kendall, who has treated thousands of patients
           | since the pandemic began last March, says patients who had
           | COVID-19 symptoms show a severe chest X-ray every time, and
           | those who were asymptomatic show a severe chest X-ray 80
           | percent of the time."
        
             | _Understated_ wrote:
             | > exhibited a severe chest X-ray 70%-80% of the time
             | 
             | With a sample size of what? That's a nonsense statement
             | that can't be scrutinised.
             | 
             | Edit, found this: The finding is promising but will require
             | further research given the small size of the study with
             | only 82 patients, mostly male and average age over 50
             | 
             | 82 people over the age of 50. It also doesn't mention how
             | healthy these people were.
             | 
             | This is typical of pretty much all media coverage: very
             | little facts but also very little to throw back at them...
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | The "70-80%" figure is based on thousands of the doctor's
               | own patients.
               | 
               | https://observer.com/2021/01/covid-long-term-health-
               | impacts-...
               | 
               | It's not a peer reviewed study, and it includes only the
               | people whose situations were severe enough to be sent to
               | a radiologist. But it's enough to conclude that it's more
               | than just a dismissably small number of cases.
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | Sorry, it says nothing of the sort. All the evidence,
               | including government statistics, tell is it is precisely
               | that, a dismissably small number outside known vulnerable
               | groups.
        
               | Grimm1 wrote:
               | You realize over 70m people in the US are obese right and
               | another 100m are overweight? Known vulnerable groups
               | include 170m people right there. I can't take your
               | argument seriously.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | Grimm1 wrote:
               | What I don't understand with people who reply like this
               | is why bother taking the chance? My thought is that
               | people have never experienced a severe respiratory
               | illness before, while I have and because of that I'm
               | appropriately level set on how bad the consequences can
               | be for an individual.
               | 
               | Nothing like back to back cases of bad pneumonia 19 years
               | ago to make me take this whole thing seriously.
               | 
               | My understanding is the hospitalization rate even for
               | young and healthy (20-44) is around 10%. 1 in 10 odds for
               | something happening is really a quite good chance of that
               | thing happening.
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | And you have every reason to be incredibly cautious. Were
               | I in your shoes I'd likely err on the side of caution
               | too.
               | 
               | Hospitalisation rate says nothing other than they were in
               | hospital. It could have been because they were feeling a
               | bit rough but utterly terrified due to all the
               | scaremongering that's going around. Or they may have been
               | close to deaths door. No way to tell.
               | 
               | The figures don't lie: There are vulnerable groups that
               | can be severely symptomatic and even die from this but
               | they make up a tiny tiny fraction of the population.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | The figures don't lie. Of one hundred people with covid,
               | two will die and ten will be suffering three months
               | later. The portion suffering long covid is growing too,
               | and it's poorly understood. Damaged hearts and lungs for
               | example and there are plenty of accounts about.
               | 
               | What are you pushing for? There are places we can look to
               | where covid ran free, it isn't pretty.
               | 
               | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS221
               | 3-2...
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | Balance, that's what I'm pushing for.
               | 
               | Assess your actual chances of catching and suffering from
               | covid. Then balance it against the risk of a rushed
               | experimental gene therapy still in initial trials.
               | 
               | Edit: Remember that none of the media and government
               | published figures show recovery rates - this is hugely
               | important.
        
               | henrikschroder wrote:
               | I saw this study from USC: https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/
               | 
               | You can't link to the exact thing, but choose
               | "Coronavirus Risk Perceptions" and split by age.
               | 
               | People under 40 believe that their risk of dying from the
               | virus is over 10% on average. The actual risk for that
               | age group is somewhere around 0.02%, which means they're
               | overestimating their risk of dying by a factor of 500.
               | 
               | Five hundred! It's _mindboggling_ how wrong people are.
               | 
               | But once you see those numbers, it becomes clear why
               | there is such widespread support for strict lockdowns.
               | 
               | However, even with the accurate numbers, I would still
               | say the case for the mRNA vaccines is strong. I think you
               | are exaggerating the risks of the mRNA vaccines, in the
               | same way that regular people are exaggerating the risks
               | of the virus.
        
               | birken wrote:
               | I'm quite confident people probably over-estimate their
               | chance of dying in a plane crash by a few orders of
               | magnitude as well. People are careful about their own
               | lives, which is probably a good survival mechanism.
               | 
               | What _specific_ policy are you suggesting? The more  <40
               | year olds that get the virus, the more virus there is.
               | The more virus there is, the more people who are
               | spreading the virus, the more people who can get the
               | virus, including people at very high risk of dying or
               | being disabled from it. Ignoring all the effects of
               | filling up hospitals with COVID patients at the expense
               | of all other medical conditions.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | Elsewhere in this thread you argue that because only 400
               | people without underlying conditions have died,
               | restrictions should be removed. The other 100k don't seem
               | to be of concern. I don't think 'balanced reporting' is
               | the full extent of what you are after.
        
               | _Understated_ wrote:
               | I'm talking about balancing the risk! Yes that 400 figure
               | is foundational to my argument and yes, we should lift
               | the restrictions.
               | 
               | But if you are really sick, you'd be at home, in your bed
               | taking it easy anyway especially if your symptoms are as
               | severe as some of the COVID reports suggest.
               | 
               | And it's not balanced reporting I want either, it's
               | accurate reporting with facts that can be challenged or
               | verified: most articles are incredibly vague when it
               | comes to COVID and some have incredibly low numbers that,
               | at first glance, look damning but are still tiny numbers.
               | 
               | Edit: deleted the 100,000 sentece - In response to that
               | number, yes it may be a large number but there is no
               | breakdown of the cases. For all you know, they were all
               | 90+ years old with previous underlying conditions. All
               | the figures we see have very little behind them that can
               | substantiate the measures taken, while at the same time
               | trigger responses in all of us that make them hard to
               | argue against without coming across as callous but the
               | numbers are not there to justify the lockdowns.
        
           | breakfastduck wrote:
           | People are more bothered about the emotional virtue of a
           | statement than they are about it's truthfulness when it comes
           | to the pandemic.
        
           | lostlogin wrote:
           | Long covid is a problem that is going to keep on giving. A
           | large portion of those who get covid will have symptoms 6
           | months later, and many cases are life altering.
        
         | square_square wrote:
         | The Novavax vaccine is way better than this one
        
           | eloff wrote:
           | I agree, but the old cliche "beggars can't be choosers" comes
           | to mind.
           | 
           | I'll take the first vaccine that becomes available to me, and
           | I highly doubt they'd give me a choice at the clinic anyway.
        
           | alexhutcheson wrote:
           | We're limited by supply, so the existence of (limited
           | quantities of) better vaccines isn't a good reason to block
           | people from choosing to get a safe vaccine that still
           | provides a reasonable degree of protection.
           | 
           | There are plenty of people in the lower-risk categories who
           | would prefer to get a >60% effective vaccine now, rather than
           | wait months for their turn in line for vaccines with the
           | highest efficacy.
        
         | Moto7451 wrote:
         | Why do you believe that the FDA is holding them back?
         | 
         | So far the process appears to be approval after the minimum of
         | safety and effectiveness testing. This means that people won't
         | waste time or be harmed by a failed vaccine candidate. I don't
         | work in medicine and am just a bystander like most. Is there
         | something I am missing?
        
           | alexhutcheson wrote:
           | The AstraZeneca vaccine has been approved for use in the UK
           | since December, but the FDA isn't currently scheduled to
           | approve it in the US until April.
        
           | JamesBarney wrote:
           | Because they care 6 orders of magnitude more about people who
           | die from taking the vaccine than people who die from them
           | witholding the vaccine.
        
         | wtvanhest wrote:
         | Personally, I'd rather take the J&J which uses old, proven
         | tech. In 5 years we will know a lot more about nRNA vaccine
         | long-term safety, and I'll be much more comfortable taking an
         | nRNA vaccine at that point.
         | 
         | When I'm eligible, I still may take the nRNA, but my preference
         | is on older tech at this point.
         | 
         | I fully acknowledge that the nRNA is extremely likely to be
         | safe, but it's just my preference
        
           | dirtyid wrote:
           | Yeah, I'd personally hedge for 50-70% shots based off tested
           | techniques that inoculates against severe cases. I'll also
           | bias towards options with less onerous cold chain
           | requirements. No part of covid response has been trouble free
           | so far, vaccines rollout will be no different. Have had
           | several front line / medical friends advice to bias away from
           | Pfizer due to behind the scene incompetence. Currently Pfizer
           | is limited to hospital settings in my country due to excess
           | requirements, and guess what, hospital staff has been running
           | ragged for over a year.
        
           | singingfish wrote:
           | I don't see any a-priori issues with mRNA safety - mRNA is by
           | design an ephemeral product with no chance of self-
           | replication. Its long term efficacy on the other hand is yet
           | unknown and the supply chain issues are significant (it's a
           | result of mRNA being an ephemeral cellular product being
           | stored artificially).
           | 
           | Of course if you made an mRNA virus to produce some sort of
           | toxic cellular protein then safety would be an issue - which
           | is what the phase 1 and 2 trials are about. Phase 4 is about
           | finding the one in a million adverse reactions.
        
           | gojomo wrote:
           | Some think the Adenovirus-vetor vaccines have more risk of
           | certain side-effects, especially if (by chance or a prior
           | vaccination) the person was previously infected by a related
           | Adenovirus.
           | 
           | By contrast, the mRNA vaccines do the same thing in the end -
           | get your cells to appear infected & emit the target spike
           | proteins - in the narrowest possible way, via a subset of the
           | changes an Adenovirus infection causes.
        
             | angry_octet wrote:
             | As I understand it, the risk is not to do with the
             | adenovirus but with the use of PEG (polyethylene glycol) or
             | similar analogues, to make the active ingredient last
             | longer, which may cause an allergic reaction[1] to
             | sensitized people. The AZ vaccine does not use PEG (nor
             | J&J, Novovax IIRC).
             | 
             | The complication with the adenovirus carrier is that you
             | immune system may attack the carrier so effectively that
             | you don't get enough exposure to the coronavirus protein
             | that it is carrying, and hence don't develop a strong
             | enough immune response to it. This causes problems
             | determining how people will respond to varied treatment
             | schedules (delay of the booster shot, mixing of vaccines,
             | etc).[2][3]
             | 
             | The mRNA vaccines do not get your cells to 'appear
             | infected'. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcTEmHlvY10
             | 
             | [1] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/suspicions-
             | grow-nano... [2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti
             | cle/pii/S152500160... [3] https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipe
             | line/archives/2020/12/02/ta...
        
           | bawolff wrote:
           | Adenovirus vaccines are also a newish tech (not that anything
           | wrong with that, that's why we have safety testing). Its not
           | as bleeding edge as mRNA but its definitely not a traditional
           | vaccine
        
             | zeku wrote:
             | Don't tell him that. He's willing to get any vaccine at all
             | and the world desperately needs to be vaxxed. If people
             | want to take adenovirus vaxs because they feel its safer I
             | say just let them.
        
               | Mountain_Skies wrote:
               | Informed consent is very important in medicine for good
               | reasons.
        
               | manwe150 wrote:
               | I think what continues to surprise me (after talking
               | about these for months now) is his underlying assumption
               | that the third choice is a likely option. While the
               | continued rate of spread seems to suggest to me that
               | really we have a near binary option:
               | 
               | 1. get injected with some vaccine soon, expose your body
               | to a controlled amount of slightly noxious chemicals and
               | hope your body learns how to eliminate them before they
               | degrade on their own
               | 
               | 2. contract COVID-19 soon, expose your body to those same
               | noxious chemicals, plus a bunch of others that help it
               | spread throughout your body and cause damage and linger,
               | possibly for weeks or sometimes until you die
               | 
               | (excluding extreme options, like living alone for the
               | next 5 years far from other humans, or dying of a mundane
               | cause sooner)
        
           | geuis wrote:
           | mRNA, not n. It's short for messenger RNA.
        
         | 5440 wrote:
         | I can give you a laundry list right now. For example, millions
         | of vials are cracking around the rim, several of the filling
         | rooms have mold issues, one of the vial hoppers is leaving
         | metal particulates in the vials, weekly OOS for manufacturing
         | impurities..I think the public would freak out if they knew
         | what was happening in the supply chain.
        
           | singingfish wrote:
           | I think this is just a normal part of the scale up process,
           | and why things are time consuming.
           | 
           | The AZ vaccine seems to be the best candidate as it can be
           | distributed at fridge temperature. It looks like the novavax
           | vaccine (protein + adjuvant design) may actually prevent
           | invection. The goal of the 1st generation of vaccines is to
           | prevent severe illness.
        
           | gojomo wrote:
           | For which vaxes? How do you know this?
        
           | arrayjumper wrote:
           | citation needed
        
           | jdhn wrote:
           | If this is in any way true, you need to contact a journalist
           | ASAP. Alex Berenson would love to hear from you.
           | 
           | If this isn't true, then you should delete this immediately.
        
             | zug_zug wrote:
             | >> If this is in any way true, you need to contact a
             | journalist ASAP.
             | 
             | ??? It sounds like he's saying the supply chain is working
             | out normal issues, and the FDA is rightly holding it back
             | until they are resolved. I don't see anything newsworthy
             | about that. Certainly could be misquoted/smudged for some
             | great clickbait though.
        
               | jdhn wrote:
               | The way I'm interpreting the statement is that these
               | issues are happening today during the production of Covid
               | vaccines that have already been approved and are being
               | sent out.
        
             | angry_octet wrote:
             | Yes, what we need is anecdata that early random failures
             | mean the world is ending, quick find a conspiracy pot
             | boiler like Berenson.
        
           | c0nsumer wrote:
           | Would you please provide citations for this?
           | 
           | These are pretty extraordinary claims.
        
         | beezle wrote:
         | Not hospitalized does not mean no damage, short or long term.
         | That is not to say this vaccine is a bust, but I for one was
         | disappointed in the efficacy. The Novavax vaccine appears to be
         | better and is also able to use existing supply chain
         | technology.
        
         | gogopuppygogo wrote:
         | Unpopular opinion: the FDA has to justify their existence. If
         | vaccines can be developed safely and deployed quickly,
         | inexpensively, and in large quantities all without FDA then
         | people would realize how bloated our government really is.
        
           | tootie wrote:
           | Safe, effective vaccines are being developed because they
           | know if they don't they won't get past the FDA.
        
           | Traster wrote:
           | We saw this with Boeing - as the private company realised
           | that the regulatory body wasn't going to hold it accountable,
           | the private company started trading off profit versus safety
           | with the result being lower short term costs and more
           | dangerous planes.
        
           | happytoexplain wrote:
           | >If vaccines can be developed safely ... without FDA
           | 
           | You forgot a critical distinction: safely _every time_
        
             | Jtsummers wrote:
             | Doesn't need to be every time, it "just" needs to meet or
             | beat the current FDA record. The FDA has approved
             | treatments in the past that turned out to be harmful for
             | substantial numbers of people. _If_ the industry could
             | reliably replicate the FDA 's present track record (which
             | is, overall, very good) then the FDA could be shown to be
             | unnecessary.
             | 
             | However, having worked in regulated industries I do _not_
             | trust industry to do any better than the FDA. At least not
             | in the long term.
        
           | pfarnsworth wrote:
           | This is unfortunately an ignorant statement.
           | 
           | During the Swine Flu epidemic, British health care workers
           | were given an untested vaccine. It left many of them with
           | lingering health problems like narcolepsy. This is what
           | happens when things are unsafely and quickly distributed.
        
           | raverbashing wrote:
           | The 737 Max would like a word
        
           | joncrane wrote:
           | I think this is a bit of a disingenuous approach. There's a
           | slippery slope here.
           | 
           | Just because "humanity, including giant healthcare
           | conglomerates who stood to profit came together to fast track
           | vaccines against a deadly global pandemic" it doesn't mean
           | "regulation of the vaccine and drug industry is pointless."
           | 
           | If the FDA were to relax its standards across the board due
           | to this one success in the face of an anomaly, you'd better
           | believe drug manufacturers would be fast tracking dangerous
           | drugs.
           | 
           | Heck even in the current regulatory environment dangerous
           | products make it through. As evidenced by all the ads I see
           | for litigation based on harm caused by various already-
           | approved (in a non-fast track manner) drugs that have made it
           | to the market in the last decade.
        
           | malux85 wrote:
           | There's always going to be work for the FDA, there's an
           | unending stream of new diseases/conditions and cures. I very
           | much doubt they are worried about running out of work
        
           | FuckButtons wrote:
           | The reason this is unpopular is because of how obviously
           | incorrect it is. The history of medicine is almost an
           | allegory for why evolved evidence based systems like this to
           | regulate what companies and doctors can do. Time and again,
           | doctors and pharmaceutical companies have done unsafe,
           | harmful and fraudulent things to patients who trusted them.
           | The only reason we have medicine that works now is because we
           | rigorously enforce the use of statistical proof that
           | interventions work through bodies like the FDA.
        
             | cogman10 wrote:
             | Yup. There's a lot of distrust in doctors and the medical
             | community and some of that has been earned by past lapses
             | in ethics or rigor.
             | 
             | The only way to earn it back is by heightened scrutiny.
             | That's the role the FDA finds itself in. It doesn't just
             | approve things because approving something that later
             | causes issues will ultimately result lost confidence.
             | 
             | Getting people to take these vaccines will be a challenge
             | in and of itself. Can you imagine how much harder it will
             | be if we give antivaxxers more "they rushed this"
             | ammunition?
        
             | JamesBarney wrote:
             | The problem is deaths caused by a lack of regulation are
             | highly visible. But all of the deaths caused by burdensome
             | regulation are harder to point to.
             | 
             | If we had started releasing the vaccine in August of last
             | year we probably could have saved 100,000 lives.
             | 
             | Also the FDA doesn't regulate medicine. Only drugs. All the
             | rest of medicine doesn't fall under FDA regulation (like
             | surgeries).
        
               | FuckButtons wrote:
               | We could also have achieved nothing at all for our money,
               | or have given thousands of healthy people permanent
               | autoimmune conditions or killed them through adverse
               | reactions and after all that we still wouldn't have known
               | if what we were doing actually did anything to slow the
               | pandemic. People on hacker news should know just how hard
               | it is to really know something, the human immune system
               | is far more complex than any code base, the only way to
               | know if something works is to test it, and test it
               | thoroughly, which is exactly what the "burdensome"
               | regulation requires.
        
               | angry_octet wrote:
               | This 'don't test it, just do it' idea really shows how
               | paniced and irrational people are. The reasons to not
               | rush out a population wide vax campaign are significant.
               | 
               | For example: the otherwise promising and effective
               | candidate from QUT accidentally causes you to test
               | positive for HIV on the common/cheap/simple assays, which
               | would make effective HIV testing vastly more expensive in
               | the population and cause a huge anti-vax movement. I
               | think we are happy that this side effect is constrained
               | the the small trials group.
               | 
               | Maybe this needs to be explained in computer terms: would
               | you be upset if Apple rushed out a security patch and
               | that caused every iphone to reboot randomly during odd
               | numbered months, and was unpatchable?
        
             | abfan1127 wrote:
             | I spent time at a large medical device company. I'm lightly
             | familiar with the FDA submission process. I would not refer
             | to it as rigorous. We were encouraged to keep the
             | information light or the FDA would be easily confused and
             | reject. Rejection had more to do with giving the FDA simple
             | warm fuzzies rather than rigorous data analysis. The FDA
             | process is more an exercise in paperwork, not in rigorous
             | drug/device performance.
             | 
             | As you say, doctors and pharma have done unsafe, harmful,
             | and fraudulent things to patients. How much was the FDA
             | complacent in this?
             | 
             | All of these drugs were approved by the FDA's "process".
             | 
             | https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-
             | availability/drug-...
        
               | sterlind wrote:
               | Drugs are much more rigorously evaluated than medical
               | devices. It's just a quirk of the FDA that medical
               | devices aren't nearly as well regulated or tested.
        
               | jonathankoren wrote:
               | I suggest you read up on the history of medicine prior to
               | creation of the FDA, and similar agencies world wide.
        
               | abfan1127 wrote:
               | I'm sufficiently versed on the days of snake oil. I'm
               | also familiar with the modern follies of the FDA,
               | including artificial spinal disk treatments, "standard of
               | care" balks, etc.
        
               | jpeloquin wrote:
               | > I'm lightly familiar with the FDA submission process. I
               | would not refer to it as rigorous.
               | 
               | Is this referring to all of the submission pathways, or
               | one in particular? That is, I wouldn't expect the 510(k)
               | process to be particularly rigorous, but the PMA process
               | should ratchet up the scrutiny.
        
               | abfan1127 wrote:
               | Its been 10 years since that employment so I don't recall
               | the details. We would get annual "FDA training" on how to
               | report, document, etc. my particular employer always
               | stressed on being accurate and doing what was right for
               | the patient. But "over-reporting" was discouraged... I
               | always related it to a police investigation. Don't give
               | them any more information than asked, you never know what
               | rabbit hole they will go down, risking rejection.
        
               | mmmrtl wrote:
               | Do you realize the irony in providing a list of FDA
               | recalls while bemoaning their lack of rigor? Lots of
               | these "drugs" were unapproved dietary supplements that
               | the FDA found to actually contain drugs, or drugs that
               | failed QC while on the market, not the pristine batches
               | and data that would have gotten the drug approved in the
               | first place.
               | 
               | To me, it's similar to having more trust for media
               | outlets that post corrections rather than pretending that
               | nothing ever goes wrong. It's a point in their favor that
               | a stamp of approval can be rescinded.
               | 
               | You might have an argument that the companies need to be
               | taken out of the drug approval process entirely, due to
               | issues of hiding data to avoid giving the FDA a hint of
               | anything wrong (or making them "confused" as you say), or
               | maybe we need much stricter rules on data withholding.
               | I'm with you there.
        
               | abfan1127 wrote:
               | The irony is specifically why I posted it. FDA approval
               | is treated as a "gold standard" yet we have lots of
               | evidence that it isn't. Companies lie, make non-
               | intentional mistakes not caught by the FDA, there's all
               | sorts of issues with it. The FDA review process is more
               | like an editor checking spelling than actual rigorous
               | analysis.
               | 
               | I don't think your media analogy is accurate. It would be
               | like the government censoring media companies, but having
               | a poor biased criteria which then changes later, but is
               | also subject to lies, etc. I don't think its a good
               | analogy.
               | 
               | I think drug companies should be rated on their data
               | openness, with enough information to reproduce results. I
               | think approval processes should be replaced with levels
               | of confidence certifications. For example:
               | 
               | Gold is independent labs find similar results to internal
               | labs (verified) Silver is only internal labs produced
               | results, not reproduced elsewhere etc.
        
           | klodolph wrote:
           | The FDA more than justified its existence when it prevented
           | the entry of thalidomide into the US market without more
           | evidence of its safety.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide
        
             | JamesBarney wrote:
             | How many people have died from drugs getting approved later
             | or not being able to afford drugs due to the high price of
             | drug testing?
             | 
             | Or from drugs not being researched or approved because it's
             | too expensive to do an fda trial?
        
         | throwaway998866 wrote:
         | > I have no idea how the FDA can hold back these vaccines in
         | good conscience...
         | 
         | The UK versus FDA Thalidomide experience is at least one good
         | reason.
        
       | azinman2 wrote:
       | Bloomberg quoted "No severe allergic reactions," to the J&J, yet
       | my cousin-in-law is in the hospital right now with Guillain-Barre
       | syndrome following the J&J clinical trial shot. Granted this is
       | rare and can happen with any vaccine (I believe?), but it's
       | pretty strange to read about the lack of negative reactions when
       | I personally know someone who has been affected.
       | 
       | NB: I'm not advocating there is anything largely wrong or unsafe
       | about it.
        
         | graeme wrote:
         | Guillan barre syndrome is not considered an allergic reaction
         | to the best of my knowledge. So your brother's case doesn't
         | contradict the claim.
         | 
         | And yeah GBS can happen with any vaccine but more importantly
         | also from viral infections. Generally more frequently from the
         | viruses themselves.
        
       | Exmoor wrote:
       | I suspect the title was abbreviated to fit HN length
       | requirements, but it cut out perhaps the most important part.
       | This data is for a single shot. There is an ongoing trial for
       | boosting with a second shot down the line, but having a single
       | shot that's known to be effective at eliminating the disease and
       | extremely effective at reducing severe cases and hospitalizations
       | is a game changer. We can vaccinate lower risk populations with
       | this vaccine and do it twice as fast. Once everyone is
       | vaccinated, we can invite people to come back for a second shot
       | as a booster. From the phase 1/2 trial data I saw, I'd expect a
       | second shot to boost the efficacy to numbers approaching the mRNA
       | vaccines.
       | 
       | Edit: It also only needs to be refrigerated so it eliminates a
       | lot of coordination related to frozen transportation, scheduled
       | appointments, etc. will be eliminated.
        
       | znebby wrote:
       | I'm really struggling to understand these numbers.
       | 
       | In some other articles I'm seeing that it offers 100% protection
       | against hospitalisation and death.
       | 
       | "The J&J vaccine was 85 per cent effective at preventing severe
       | Covid-19. Twenty-eight days after the jab, it offered "complete
       | protection" from hospitalisation and death." [1]
       | 
       | Wouldn't having "severe" infection require hospitilisation?
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.ft.com/content/d05c7c57-da11-42a1-aa33-b66052c90...
        
         | jiofih wrote:
         | Severe means severe symptoms but doesn't imply hospitalization.
        
         | GizmoSwan wrote:
         | People would get the disease but it won't kill them. They get a
         | milder version of the disease that they otherwise would have.
         | 
         | It is like having some sort of immunity to type A,B, Spanish,
         | etc of flu and getting them still but not dying like in early
         | 1900s.
        
         | outlace wrote:
         | Presumably severe includes some people who don't need
         | hospitalization. Some high risk patients can get new monoclonal
         | antibody treatments that may prevent them from needing
         | hospitalization. Some people are sent home from the ED with
         | oximeters and told to come back if their oxygen saturation
         | drops below a certain threshold and a doctor calls them
         | everyday. Hospitals in hard-hit area have to be very judicious
         | about only admitting patients who really need it so there may
         | be some severe/high risk cases that are just closely followed
         | as an outpatient.
        
           | zeku wrote:
           | My grandma got severe covid and was sent home with oxygen
           | tanks and other stuff. She's made it through thankfully.
           | 
           | Rural USA area hit hard.
        
         | roywiggins wrote:
         | I've seen "severe" be measured by oxygen saturation; some
         | people are able to manage severe COVID at home.
         | 
         | Some people _have_ to, because there simply isn 't any hospital
         | in their area with space for them.
        
           | spookthesunset wrote:
           | > Some people have to, because there simply isn't any
           | hospital in their area with space for them.
           | 
           | Citation needed on that one. There is a lot of media
           | fearmongering out there that results in outliers and things
           | that are normal practice getting taken out of context and
           | blown up into something scary.
        
             | roywiggins wrote:
             | You can see it in statistics. When the hospitalization
             | starts dropping while case counts are going up, it's
             | because more cases are being managed at home.
             | 
             | Prioritizing critical care is _normal_ when care is in
             | short supply, but it means that you are more likely to have
             | to deal with COVID at home when the local healthcare system
             | is overstressed.
             | 
             | > on Nov. 1, the Covid Tracking Project's seven-day average
             | showed about 80,000 new cases -- which we would predict
             | should lead to about 2,800 new hospitalizations a week
             | later, by Nov. 8. Instead, there were 2,600, a little fewer
             | than expected. On Nov. 15, we had 146,000 new cases, which
             | should have resulted in about 5,100 new hospitalizations by
             | Nov. 22. However, there were fewer than 3,700. This pattern
             | of declining rates of hospitalization continued through the
             | end of November.
             | 
             | > What is happening is pretty simple: Because hospitals are
             | filling up, they are admitting fewer and fewer people. Any
             | doctor or nurse will tell you that as the demand for beds
             | soars, the threshold for admission rises with it...
             | 
             | > The decision on whether to admit a patient depends on two
             | things: clinical judgment and bed availability. Critically
             | ill patients will always be admitted. But as hospitals
             | start to fill up, those who are less sick -- younger covid
             | patients, or those whose oxygen levels aren't yet
             | dangerously low -- get sent home. These patients would be
             | safer in a hospital bed, but there isn't one available for
             | them anymore.
             | 
             | https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/12/07/covid-
             | hosp...
        
         | ideamotor wrote:
         | I think they are saying none of the hospitalized cases occurred
         | after twenty-eight days, but statistically they can't really
         | say it provides 100% hospitalization prevention at that point
         | even if that is accurate. At lease one expert on CNN indicated
         | protection was continuing to increase throughout the study
         | which is promising. I'd like to see a follow-up.
        
       | nickpinkston wrote:
       | Is it possible to get J&J first and then get the Moderna, etc.
       | later on for more protection?
        
       | boulos wrote:
       | I find the Johnson and Johnson Press Release [1] more
       | informative. It gives a lot more detail on the study, including
       | linking to their protocol [2].
       | 
       | It's unfortunate, but the different vaccine trials all have
       | different demographics and different measures of efficacy. IIRC,
       | the Moderna "95%" is not "only 5% developed COVID" but rather
       | "95% didn't end up showing any symptoms" while AstraZeneca was
       | doing weekly testing (again this is from memory). With so many
       | people being asymptomatic, the difference between "95%" and "66%"
       | is in the details (which is definitely why Johnson and Johnson
       | also highlight their 72% in the US, and 85% against
       | hospitalization/death).
       | 
       | tl;dr: each vaccine group made reasonable, independent choices
       | for their effectiveness metrics, but they're not the same metric.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-
       | ja...
       | 
       | [2] https://www.jnj.com/coronavirus/covid-19-phase-3-study-
       | clini...
        
         | m-ee wrote:
         | They do not have different measures of eficacy. AZ did more
         | testing to look at symptomatic infections but that was not used
         | in the primary efficacy calculation.
         | 
         | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
        
         | xiphias2 wrote:
         | Also the results of this vaccine isn't that difference from
         | just using 1 shot of another vaccine.
         | 
         | It looks like as long as it's safe to do it, the 2nd shot is
         | worth it.
        
       | lurkmurk wrote:
       | Is there some resource that compares all the vaccines, an article
       | or a blog post? I would guess that a vast majority of people
       | don't have time/knowledge to look into official reports. One big
       | table with different companies, number of people in trials,
       | results etc. would be nice. For example, what I just found out is
       | that Moderna is actually not 95% effective on all age groups but
       | on 18-65 [1].
       | 
       | Back to J&J. How old were the 15% that did develop the most
       | serious symptoms? The article says that "more than 40 per cent
       | had other illnesses [...] including obesity, diabetes and HIV."
       | Isn't the base rate for obesity in a population something like
       | that or higher? Finally, if we just look at the numbers (if they
       | are even comparable), can we objectively rank these vaccines by
       | how good they are? No ones feelings should be hurt if we can
       | conclude that their vaccine is close to useless (think of how
       | vaccinated population will demand loose measures although 40% of
       | them are still at risk).
       | 
       | [1] https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-
       | eff...
        
       | sradman wrote:
       | The NIH news release _Janssen Investigational COVID-19 Vaccine:
       | Interim Analysis of Phase 3 Clinical Data Released_ [1]:
       | 
       | > An investigational COVID-19 vaccine developed by Janssen
       | Pharmaceuticals appears to be safe and effective at preventing
       | moderate and severe COVID-19 in adults, according to an interim
       | analysis of Phase 3 clinical data conducted Jan. 21. The vaccine,
       | called Ad.26.COV2.S or JNJ-78436725, requires only a single
       | injection and can be stored in a refrigerator for months.
       | 
       | > The interim analysis assessed 468 cases of symptomatic COVID-19
       | among 44,325 adult volunteers in Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
       | Colombia, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The
       | investigational vaccine was reportedly 66% effective at
       | preventing the study's combined endpoints of moderate and severe
       | COVID-19 at 28 days post-vaccination among all volunteers,
       | including those infected with an emerging viral variant.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/janssen-
       | invest...
        
       | tpmx wrote:
       | The mRNA vaccines are obviously the gold standard, they're what
       | you want, if you're in a position to pick.
       | 
       | The traditional vaccines, like this one and the Astra Zeneca one
       | appear to be efficient at preventing hospitalization/death.
       | That's great - it will ease the extreme load on the hospitals,
       | and also reduce deaths greatly.
       | 
       | What I'm concerned about is the long-term chronical diseases
       | that's been reported (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-
       | conditions/coronavirus/i...), hitting a substantial part of the
       | infected.
       | 
       | We need more clarity to which degree the non-mRNA-vaccines
       | prevent these pretty horrobile chronic diseases.
        
         | agd wrote:
         | The MRNA vaccines were tested prior to the existence of the
         | variants. The Jansen vaccine efficacy was likely affected by
         | the existence of these variants, so I'm not sure we can assume
         | the MRNA vaccines are better.
        
         | boulos wrote:
         | > The mRNA vaccines are obviously the gold standard, they're
         | what you want, if you're in a position to pick.
         | 
         | That might end up being true, but see my comment about the
         | different "efficacy" measures and demographic differences [1].
         | We don't have as clear cut a statement as that, and instead
         | need to proceed (for now) with "all of the approved ones seem
         | to prevent death or serious illness. Take what you can".
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25959872
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | I would take a Johnson&Johnson or Astra Zeneca vaccine
           | tomorrow if I were offered, don't misunderstand me.
        
         | m12k wrote:
         | I originally thought the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was
         | significantly behind the mRNA vaccines in efficacy. But then I
         | learned that the Oxford trials PCR-tested every participant
         | regularly, while the Pfizer and Moderna trials only tested
         | participants that were showing symptoms. So there's a very real
         | chance that behind that ~95% number the mRNA vaccines also had
         | asymptomatic cases that were never discovered during trials,
         | and the actual protection is nearly the same as the Oxford one.
         | The mRNA vaccines still seem like a great leap forward, and
         | they don't come with the potential complications of resistance
         | to the vector virus that adenovirus-based vaccines do - but I'm
         | less sure now that they actually offer better protection
         | overall.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | > But then I learned that the Oxford trials PCR-tested every
           | participant regularly, while the Pfizer and Moderna trials
           | only tested participants that were showing symptoms.
           | 
           | That seems substantial, weird and important. Source?
           | 
           | Edit: This is one of those scenarios where if you don't
           | produce proof you lose a lot credibility. Just saying. Cc
           | u/m12k
        
             | M2Ys4U wrote:
             | "Unlike other vaccines being trialled, the Oxford team had
             | been taking weekly swabs from all volunteers to check
             | whether they were infected but showing no symptoms."
             | 
             | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308216
        
               | m-ee wrote:
               | This does not mean that this is reflected in the efficacy
               | numbers. Read the paper and protocols they very clearly
               | specify symptomatic disease confirmed with PCR.
        
             | m-ee wrote:
             | They did do more PCR but that isn't reflected in the
             | efficacy numbers. The end point for all trials has been
             | prevention of symptomatic disease.
        
               | tpmx wrote:
               | And where is your source for that?
        
               | m-ee wrote:
               | It's quite literally one of the first things mentioned in
               | the trial protocols and journal articles
               | 
               | https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04516746
               | 
               | "The efficacy of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to
               | placebo for the prevention of COVID-19 in adults >= 18
               | years of age [ Time Frame: 1 year ]
               | 
               | A binary response, whereby a participant is defined as a
               | COVID-19 case if their first case of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-
               | positive symptomatic illness occurs
               | 
               | >= 15 days post second dose of study intervention.
               | Otherwise, a participant is not defined as a COVID-19
               | case."
               | 
               | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014
               | 0-6...
               | 
               | "The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic
               | COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid
               | amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after
               | a second dose of vaccine. "
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | So, to recap:
           | 
           | You claim that only the Oxford trials performed PCR-testing
           | everyone regularly, while the Pfizer/Moderna trial only
           | bothered to test trial participants who showed symptoms.
           | 
           | You have now had about an hour to provide evidence of this.
           | You haven't.
           | 
           | I think you're full of shit. (Would still love to be proven
           | wrong.)
        
       | xxel wrote:
       | Nothing new from Johnsosn and Johnsons. Johnsons and Johnsosn
       | shampoo wash hair 66% too.
        
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