[HN Gopher] Economist: Chipmaking Is Being Redesigned
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       Economist: Chipmaking Is Being Redesigned
        
       Author : klelatti
       Score  : 75 points
       Date   : 2021-01-22 17:50 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
        
       | mywittyname wrote:
       | > But the logical endpoint of the relentless rise in
       | manufacturing costs is that, at some point, one company, in all
       | likelihood TSMC, could be the last advanced fab standing.
       | 
       | Most established, capital-intensive markets are winner-take-all,
       | where a few big players control the bulk of the market. And they
       | usually remain at the top of the market until some fundamental
       | paradigm shift occurs that causes the market to shrink.
       | 
       | TSMC will be top dog for a while, until something happens that
       | causes the market for custom made silicon to collapse. Just like
       | Intel was top dog until something came along to replace the
       | market for x86. Or like Microsoft was King Dingaling until people
       | moved to mobile computing.
        
         | noizejoy wrote:
         | ... and IBM was King Dingaling until people moved to desktop
         | computing
         | 
         | p.s. and thus we have doxxed ourselves just a little bit: age
         | group :-)
        
           | 2sk21 wrote:
           | You're correct - at one point in the late 70s or even the
           | early 80s, IBM was the biggest chip manufacturer in the world
           | but all of the produced chips were used in their own
           | products.
        
             | amelius wrote:
             | > but all of the produced chips were used in their own
             | products.
             | 
             | Sounds like something Apple would do.
        
               | 2sk21 wrote:
               | IBM was _the_ prototypical vertically oriented company
               | back in the late 70s before the PC - manufacture chips,
               | build boards, build computers ranging from desktop to
               | mainframes, develop the OS, provide finance for
               | customers, offer integration services. Apple is nothing
               | compared to IBM in its heyday.
               | 
               | When I joined IBM in 1991, it was still a very inwardly
               | focused company. Although it was clear that things were
               | going to be changing rapidly in the industry, it was hard
               | to get employees to understand how precarious things were
               | - until the big layoffs of the mid 90s.
        
             | noizejoy wrote:
             | there was even a kind of "cloud computing": "time share
             | computing"[0], since mainframe computers were financially
             | our of reach for anyone but the very largest companies.
             | 
             | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-sharing
        
         | singhrac wrote:
         | This is too aggressive a take. Yes, TSMC is 50% of all EUV
         | production right now. But it's only 50%. Samsung has huge
         | resources and is on track to build a 3nm process by 2022/2023,
         | which is not very far behind TSMC (though I don't know if their
         | 3nm processes compare).
         | 
         | Besides just diversifying global chip production, Samsung has
         | the (geopolitical) benefit of being in a country with large US
         | bases and plenty of internal demand for their chips (if the
         | Exynos designers can produce something exceptional).
        
         | ianai wrote:
         | Or a third party decides to enter the market and go for
         | position number 2. Apple could probably do it with the cash
         | they roll - but they don't want to do so. A country could. It
         | sure seems like chips are important enough to warrant a
         | national supply - so international pressures can't weigh on you
         | politically through chip supply.
        
           | na85 wrote:
           | I've long held the opinion that chip making will eventually
           | go the route of uranium refining and become national
           | strategic capabilities that all great powers will pursue. I'm
           | continually surprised that this doesn't seem to be taking
           | place outside th defence sector.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | This is the case, actually. It's just this article is
             | talking about chip production at the bleeding edge instead
             | of the pedestrian chips used in the bulk of electronic
             | devices.
             | 
             | The boring chips made for use in American military
             | equipment are largely produced domestically.
        
             | ianai wrote:
             | Honestly I'd blame governments being staffed by people who
             | make their money in more traditional areas. Aka we need a
             | generational change.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Chip making is still advancing too fast for that. If the
             | current processes are about the limit of physics, then
             | eventually yes. Right now it is better to hope your country
             | just does the next leapfrog of technology.
        
               | ianai wrote:
               | The TSMC model seems appropriate: Don't specialize in the
               | design. Focus on the hardware and take designs from
               | customers.
        
       | lwneal wrote:
       | > Today's state-of-the-art is five-nanometre chips (though "5nm"
       | no longer refers to the actual size of transistors as earlier
       | generations did).
       | 
       | It's refreshing to see this mentioned. I'm no semiconductor
       | expert, but it seems weird to me that although node size is
       | measured in a physical unit, nanometers, it does not correspond
       | to any real measurement that exists [1]. Each transistor in a 5nm
       | chip is actually between 28 and 36 nanometers in width. It's
       | called 5nm because of a theoretical calculation based on
       | transistor density [2].
       | 
       | If Tesla advertised a new "200kWh" battery, I would be very
       | disappointed if it turned out that the battery only held 95kWh,
       | but the marketing department had decided that improvements in the
       | charging network have made it "like 200kWh" compared to earlier
       | models.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/technology_node#Meaning_lost
        
         | nyunai wrote:
         | Interestingly, there is one dimension that still tracks the
         | node number fairly closely.
         | 
         | In fact, the node number has never referred to transistor
         | dimension, but the length of the gate electrode. A transistor
         | would typically be about 4 times larger than that.
         | 
         | The reason to refer to the length of the gate electrode is
         | because that was always the smallest feature printed on the
         | chip. And that is what defined the required resolution of the
         | lithography process.
         | 
         | So, a lithography process with a resolution of 32nm would be
         | able to print chips with 32nm gate lengths.
         | 
         | Much has changed, and now transistors are no longer planar,
         | they are 3-dimensional fin structures (FinFETs). The gate
         | length scaling has slowed down, and now is not the smallest
         | feature on the chip anymore.
         | 
         | The smallest feature in a modern FinFET process is actually the
         | with of those 'fi s' that form the transistor channels.
         | 
         | And as if by magic, they correspond pretty well to the node
         | names, i.e. a 5nm process will have a fin width of about 5nm.
         | 
         | You will likely not find that mentioned anywhere, it's just a
         | fun fact that I noticed as a VLSI technologist.
        
           | kayson wrote:
           | It's still a little disingenuous because most performance
           | parameters are directly related to transistor lengths,
           | whether finfet or not. There used to be a concept of
           | "scaling" where you could roughly estimate that going from a
           | 40nm process to a 28nm process, for example, would save you
           | (28/40)^2 percent power. Finfet disrupted that to some
           | extent, but it partly held true as physical lengths actually
           | continued to decrease with node names. By now, though, it is
           | generally understood that state-of-the-art process node
           | numbers doesn't mean much in that regard.
           | 
           | I also just checked a handful of processes I have access to,
           | and at least in these cases, the fin width doesn't scale with
           | the technology name (e.g. 5nm and 7nm has 8nm fin width drawn
           | in layout, and model indicates 27nm "width" per fin). This
           | isn't much of a surprise to me, because foundries are just
           | decreasing the number with newer generations of the tech,
           | even if the lithography (the method by which features are
           | etched into the silicon) hasn't significantly changed. For
           | example, 3 generations of a single process were called 7***,
           | then 5***, then 4***.
        
         | analog31 wrote:
         | Similar story with audio amplifiers and "Watts." Also, I think
         | that small gas engines like lawnmowers went through some kind
         | of scandal related to their horsepower ratings.
        
           | klodolph wrote:
           | Yes, some amplifiers would be advertised with nonsense like
           | "watts RMS". The concept of "watts RMS" makes no goddamn
           | sense.
        
             | analog31 wrote:
             | Actually in the US, the term "Watts RMS" specifies that the
             | measurement is done according to the FTC Amplifier Rule.
             | Now that rule has its own pro's and con's of course, but at
             | least it's pretty definite. With all of these things,
             | there's a corresponding European rule as well.
             | 
             | Whether the measurement method is appropriate to your use
             | of an amplifier is of course anybody's guess.
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | How about vacuum cleaners with HP? I guarantee that there
           | isn't a 3HP motor that works on a 120VAC (RMS) 15A (RMS)
           | circuit.
        
             | m-ee wrote:
             | A friend worked on a blender. The wattage number was
             | derived from the inrush current when first turned on.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | I can see how an average consumer would fall for "5nm". But
         | this is targeted at engineers ...
        
         | emteycz wrote:
         | Remember when Mercedes E230 meant 2.3 litre engine? I feel this
         | is similar. Indeed a long history as another commenter points
         | out.
        
           | noncoml wrote:
           | Yup. Similar with BMW. 330 meant 3 liter engine. Now it's all
           | the "equivalent" game.
        
           | GoOnThenDoTell wrote:
           | 230 deci-litre?
        
         | jimnotgym wrote:
         | I bought a 1 Terabyte hardrive, and it only contained 1000GB.
         | It compares well against all the competitors because they pull
         | the same trick too
        
         | 11thEarlOfMar wrote:
         | I thought the 5nm referred to the smallest dimension in a
         | FinFet device. Specifically, the fin: "In theory, the finFET
         | hits its limit when the fin width reaches 5nm, which is close
         | to where it is today." [0]
         | 
         | https://semiengineering.com/5nm-vs-3nm/
        
         | xxpor wrote:
         | I feel that stuff like this has a long history in engineering.
         | It's like how TVs are in the 55 in "class", or a 2x4 is
         | actually something like 1.75x3.5 now.
        
           | wfleming wrote:
           | 2x4s _are_ 2x4 before they 're seasoned, though. The lumber
           | is dried after dimensioning and shrinks as it loses moisture.
           | But we still label it by the original dimensions because
           | lumber is priced by the board foot (which is itself a weird
           | archaic measure) of the lumber when it was cut.
           | 
           | For comparison, sheet goods aren't priced this way. A 3/4"
           | sheet of plywood really is 3/4", because the plywood was
           | manufactured that way and as a manufactured product there is
           | no seasoning.
           | 
           | You're not being ripped off because a 2x4 is actually
           | smaller. A sawmill had a tree, and they cut off a hunk of
           | that tree, and they charge by how much wood they cut off. The
           | dimensions of that piece of wood changed after they cut it
           | (which in and of itself is a service they provide - it would
           | be a hassle if you had to buy green lumber and dry it
           | yourself).
        
             | highfreq wrote:
             | I work in sawmill technology. Way back in history 2x4 were
             | cut to 2" x 4". In a modern sawmill 2x4s are never cut to
             | 2" x 4". They are cut to a thickness and width such that
             | given saw deviation, and variable drying shrinkage nearly
             | all boards will cleanly plane down to 1.5" x 3.5". The
             | exact target dimensions will depend on how well the mill
             | can control their saw deviations and the statistical range
             | of shrinkage they expect for the wood they are cutting.
             | Reducing dimension targets by controlling saw deviation and
             | understanding drying shrinkage is a big part of sawmill
             | efficiency and profitability.
        
               | wfleming wrote:
               | Fair enough, thanks for those details. Out of curiosity,
               | do you know roughly what the target dimensions usually
               | are now a days? I'm curious how much the efficiency gains
               | are.
               | 
               | It's interesting that lumber kind of _looks_ like
               | shrinkflation (what the comment I was originally
               | responding to suggested), but it 's more that technical
               | improvements have allowed producing the same finished
               | product with less input material. But we still label the
               | stuff by the amount of input material it _used_ to take
               | for historical reasons, which at a glance looks like
               | shrinkflation.
        
             | peteradio wrote:
             | 2x4 in old houses will measure 2x4 and is "rough cut".
             | Modern milling will turn rough cut true 2x4 into the clean
             | cut "2x4" you use today by running them through additional
             | planing process. I don't think any shrinkage is significant
             | though.
             | 
             | 3/4 plywood will measure less than 3/4.
        
             | HideousKojima wrote:
             | 3/4 inch plywood is usually actually about .7 inches
        
               | wfleming wrote:
               | Does this vary more depending on the plywood grade,
               | maybe? I have some shelving I made from AB birch, and it
               | looks pretty close to .75. Maybe 1/64 scant. (Although I
               | don't have calipers handy and just used a tape measure,
               | so I'm not being super precise.)
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | It's not new: CRT TVs and monitors were marketed by the size
           | of the tube, rather than the size of the visible part (the
           | screen itself).
        
           | joshualross wrote:
           | I don't think we should limit to just engineering; you see
           | this stuff in media, politics, finances, statistics, etc.
           | Anything that is not well understood by the public at large
           | is ripe for misuse.
        
           | gumby wrote:
           | "Building" (or worse "designing") a computer is assembling
           | lego bricks. Serious language inflation.
        
         | jjoonathan wrote:
         | On the plus side, MT/mm^2 seems to be gaining steam as a
         | metric. It removes one dimension of cheating _and_ has the
         | whole  "bigger is better" thing going for it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | acidbaseextract wrote:
           | A nice approach I'm hoping will gain traction when discussing
           | density across different types of logic is the "LMC" metric,
           | as put forward by some TSMC and Stanford folks:
           | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=9063714
           | 
           |  _Improved semiconductor device density directly translates
           | into benefits for more advanced computing systems-- the
           | primary driver for progress in semiconductor technology.
           | Thus, we propose the use of the following three-part number
           | as a metric to gauge advancement of future semiconductor
           | technologies: [DL, DM , DC ], where DL is the density of
           | logic transistors (in # /mm2), DM is the bit density of main
           | memory (currently the off-chip DRAM density, in #/mm2), and
           | DC is the density of connections between the main memory and
           | logic (in #/mm2). As an example, today's leading edge
           | technologies that are published in the literature [15]-[17]
           | can be characterized by [38M, 383M, 12K]. As another example,
           | 3-D stacking of multiple logic and memory dies can increase
           | DL, DM, and DC ._
        
             | jjoonathan wrote:
             | I love the idea of having that information readily
             | available, but I don't think it will ever be a banner spec.
             | Three numbers is two too many and who wants "density" when
             | you can have "MEGATRANSISTORS"? I know, I know, but
             | marketing is what it is and I think it's better to lean
             | into it.
        
           | elihu wrote:
           | That's "mega-transistors" per mm^2?
           | 
           | Perhaps it would be better to go with "6502s per square
           | millimeter" or something like that that would probably be a
           | closer approximation of real-world density, since it accounts
           | for wire routing and so forth.
           | 
           | SRAM density is sometimes used I think.
        
             | amelius wrote:
             | Today's chips have many more layers of interconnect than
             | the 6502. Also the aspect ratios of transistors are
             | different.
        
       | kingosticks wrote:
       | > And whereas designing your own chips once meant having to make
       | them as well, that is no longer true.
       | 
       | This hasn't been true for what, 15-20 years? Longer? If you had a
       | digital design and enough cash you could have gone to one of many
       | vendors, who in turn worked with an external fab such as TSMC (or
       | in other cases, the fab division of the same company) to create
       | your design. When working with a vendor like Broadcom, Agere,
       | Toshiba, IBM, Intel, Marvel you can be entirely isolated from the
       | physical aspects of making chips, if that's what you want. What
       | has happened over the last few years is massive consolidation of
       | these vendors so now the options are far more limited. It's
       | basically just Broadcom or Marvel at the cutting edge. I don't
       | think this goes anywhere to explain why more companies are
       | designing their own chips but it's a more accurate description of
       | reality.
        
       | gitowiec wrote:
       | Yes, we put chips in everything, and if this occurs
       | https://youtu.be/hESunUuFrzk what then?
        
       | adityar wrote:
       | Non-paywall: https://outline.com/NTubwj
        
         | nindalf wrote:
         | Strange. Copying all of the content - is what they're doing
         | legal?
        
           | mmastrac wrote:
           | IANAL, obviously, but it's probably not.. I don't see this as
           | being very transformative. You'd probably have a tough time
           | convincing a judge.
        
             | curiousllama wrote:
             | "It's not a lockpick, your honor. All it does is interact
             | with the pins inside of certain types of locks to grant
             | entry. Just like a key. They basically left the door open"
        
               | worker767424 wrote:
               | Like Elon Musk's definitely not a flamethrower.
               | 
               | https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/19/elon-musk-said-it-was-
               | not-...
        
           | throwaway09223 wrote:
           | They haven't copied any content. Outline is a javascript app
           | that changes the way your browser renders the website.
           | 
           | It's your browser contacting economist.com and fetching the
           | webpage. The javascript app then changes how it is rendered
           | by removing stuff most people don't want to see.
           | 
           | Outline is available as a browser extension, if you don't
           | want to load it by visiting outline.com.
        
             | trhway wrote:
             | >It's your browser contacting economist.com and fetching
             | the webpage
             | 
             | chrome devtools->network tells different story.
        
             | crazygringo wrote:
             | That's not true. It doesn't load the content through your
             | browser, it loads it through its servers. They indeed copy
             | content, and it's up to you to develop your own opinions as
             | to the legality or ethicality of that. :)
        
               | throwaway09223 wrote:
               | Huh, I stand corrected. I should've looked more closely
               | before commenting.
        
           | ThisIsTheWay wrote:
           | You could see the same with a quick Ctrl+U, Outline is just
           | nicely formatted.
        
       | 11thEarlOfMar wrote:
       | I tried to find some numbers on the relative amount of chips in a
       | standard ICE car vs. a BEV. I'd have to guess BEVs have perhaps
       | even an order of magnitude more chips. Certainly, they have chips
       | that are far more advanced, looking at the Tesla FSD computer[0].
       | 
       | The chip industry, and the chip equipment industry are still
       | capacity limited due to demands of remote work and school. That
       | may level off and revert somewhat towards the end of the year.
       | BEV sales may take up the slack, but also may demand a somewhat
       | different chip supply chain and drive demand for different
       | segments in the industry. We may well see the typical crash in
       | equipment sales in 2022 as those two market drivers transpire.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-fsd-computer-
       | retrof...
        
       | peter_d_sherman wrote:
       | >"On january 13th Honda, a Japanese carmaker, said it had to shut
       | its factory in Swindon, a town in southern England, for a while.
       | Not because of Brexit, or workers sick with covid-19. The reason
       | was a shortage of microchips. Other car firms are suffering, too.
       | Volkswagen, which produces more vehicles than any other firm, has
       | said it will make 100,000 fewer this quarter as a result. Like
       | just about everything else these days--from banks to combine
       | harvesters--cars cannot run without computers."
       | 
       | https://www.auto123.com/en/news/the-devastating-effects-of-a...
       | 
       | >"While car enthusiasts the world over are worried about assembly
       | plant closures following the earthquake that ravaged Japan, many
       | are still unaware of the significant role played by companies
       | working at the start of the colossal logistical chain that
       | results in the production of a vehicle.
       | 
       |  _Did you know that a single vehicle uses from 30 to over 100
       | chips_
       | 
       | to control things like the parking brake, stereo, power steering
       | and safety systems such as stability control? Development of
       | these components is extremely complex, and only a handful of
       | companies are able to meet the demands of the world's automotive
       | giants."
       | 
       | PDS: _The world 's automobile manufacturers, that is,
       | 
       | the world's carmakers --
       | 
       | would, or should have, a collective interest in IC/Chip
       | fabrication -- especially in light of the most recent
       | shortage..._
        
         | trhway wrote:
         | >Did you know that a single vehicle uses from 30 to over 100
         | chips
         | 
         | trying to sell extended warranty the dealer made sure to repeat
         | that again and again ( i still didn't buy and as of now, 5.5
         | years later, no chip nor anything else has failed so far :)
        
           | OldHand2018 wrote:
           | I used to work at an automotive electronics supplier back in
           | the 1990s. The "typical" mainstream car crossed the 30-chip
           | over 20 years ago. It would have had more than 10 in the
           | early 1980s.
           | 
           |  _Most_ of this stuff is extremely reliable!
        
           | kaonwarb wrote:
           | Reminds me of the time a dealer tried to convince me with
           | "math" that I was guaranteed to save money by buying the
           | extended warranty. I asked if that meant they were guaranteed
           | to lose money, and if so, why they were trying so hard to
           | sell it to me. They moved on pretty quick from that.
        
             | jonathanlydall wrote:
             | It's really a kind of insurance, and like insurance it's a
             | gamble. On average dealerships must win, or they would't
             | offer it, but that's not to say that some customers don't
             | "win" if they got unlucky with their car.
             | 
             | That being said, I opted out of it with my last car.
        
               | gumby wrote:
               | I did buy an extended warranty for one car, never had a
               | warranty claim until it broke down with only about three
               | or four months left on the warranty. That one paid off.
               | 
               | In another car (same mfr) I looked into getting one when
               | the regular warranty was about to run out. Sales guy
               | looked and said: main thing that happens to these older
               | cars is X and Y and you already replaced X so it's not
               | worth it. I always wondered if what he really meant was
               | "main thing that happens is something expensive and I'd
               | rather get paid retail to fix that". Either way I skipped
               | it and never had a problem.
               | 
               | I do consider it insurance.
        
         | llcoolv wrote:
         | I don't really believe that such thing as a shortage exists in
         | a free-market economy. Executives who complain of shortages are
         | just way too rigid with their planning and are not willing to
         | pay the increased price. Exactly this goes for VW.
        
           | npunt wrote:
           | Your faith in free markets may be a bit misplaced. There's a
           | long history of semiconductor shortages followed by markets
           | being flooded due to lack of demand predictability and the
           | capital costs and lag time of scaling manufacturing. DRAM
           | manufacturers have several times illegally colluded to avoid
           | these circumstances (and thus maintain profit margin).
        
           | jariel wrote:
           | Structural barriers are 'real things' even in free market
           | economies. The size, complexity, barriers to entry, massive
           | government subsidies, geopolitics are all part of the
           | equation at that level. If this was about 'wheat' or 'shoes'
           | then yes, but at this level the equation is different.
           | 
           | Also, these execs are not dumb, if they could just 'adjust
           | their price and sell 100K more cars' ... well, they've
           | thought of that.
           | 
           | Probably what needs to happen is Merkel, Bojo, EU leadership
           | (and same in other countries) might need to pipe in with
           | something to facilitate the economy, but that's also fraught
           | with risks, it's not like Norway Statoil whereby they just
           | have to 'get the Oil from under the sea and it's bank'.
        
           | ahepp wrote:
           | Auto companies cut the orders because they anticipated
           | falling demand[0]
           | 
           | >Mr Duesmann described the problems as "a crisis upon a
           | crisis". Demand for cars slumped for much of last year
           | because of the coronavirus pandemic, prompting auto suppliers
           | to cut their orders for the computer chips that manage
           | everything from a car's brakes and steering to its electric
           | windows and distance sensors.
           | 
           | >But demand for cars jumped unexpectedly in the final three
           | months of 2020, as buyers became more optimistic. Audi had
           | its best quarter ever, largely because of a rebound in China.
           | 
           | [0] https://on.ft.com/39V7w9h (paywalled after 3 free
           | accesses)
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Car makers are big, but to a chip maker they are a tiny
           | customer. I suspect more than one car maker has considered
           | making their own fab, but the costs are just too high. (My
           | company has in fact done that, we didn't open a fab last year
           | because of the costs - I'm not sure that was the right
           | decision given the costs we have spent porting working
           | software to the replacement instead, and we have a fraction
           | of the volume of the big auto makers)
           | 
           | Manufacturing is a core competency of any car maker (second
           | to supply chain). I wouldn't be surprised to see a fab
           | partner ship between automakers in the future just to ensure
           | they can get the chips they need. This will be at least as
           | much about ensuring old chips don't go obsolete as about
           | supply.
        
           | zarkov99 wrote:
           | I don't think that is right in the short term, which is the
           | time horizon the article discusses. Eventually, baring an
           | actual physical resource constraint, the market will take
           | care of it but in the short term something will have to give.
        
         | ahepp wrote:
         | According to the news sources I've been reading[0], this is a
         | management failure by auto companies rather than some kind of
         | structural issue with the chip industry. So it doesn't really
         | make sense to me that automakers might build their own fab.
         | They're the problem, not the fab. They're crying to the
         | newspapers because it looks bad to admit they were cheap and
         | will have to furlough workers. Politicians are playing along
         | with the shortage angle, because when you save a worker's job
         | they tend to vote for you. I predict the end result will be
         | politicians spending taxpayer money to make filling these
         | orders worth the fab's time.
         | 
         | >Mr Duesmann described the problems as "a crisis upon a
         | crisis". Demand for cars slumped for much of last year because
         | of the coronavirus pandemic, prompting auto suppliers to cut
         | their orders for the computer chips that manage everything from
         | a car's brakes and steering to its electric windows and
         | distance sensors.
         | 
         | >But demand for cars jumped unexpectedly in the final three
         | months of 2020, as buyers became more optimistic. Audi had its
         | best quarter ever, largely because of a rebound in China.
         | 
         | You say that development of the chips in cars is extremely
         | complex, but I was under the impression car chips are generally
         | outdated, semi-rugged processors that might have some
         | additional safety features like lockstep cores. The control
         | systems algorithms for the functions you describe aren't
         | particularly complicated as far as I know.
         | 
         | Auto manufacturers are infamous for cost cutting. I assume
         | selling them chips is a low margin high volume business, in
         | which case I would be glad to replace their orders with higher
         | margin ones at the earliest opportunity.
         | 
         | [0] https://on.ft.com/39V7w9h (paywalled after 3 free accesses)
        
           | ahepp wrote:
           | (if anyone wants to read the article but can't, feel free to
           | comment and I'll reply with a new link)
        
       | Ericson2314 wrote:
       | How much of the cost is in the design of the fab factory vs its
       | physical manufacture?
       | 
       | My hunch is now that chip design and chip manufacturing are
       | separate, the cost of chip design is going to be revealed as a
       | lot lower because the opaque accounting of before allowed for
       | stupid inefficiencies.
       | 
       | But in this case, I have no idea whether funding the basic
       | materials engineering, scaling it up, or building the scaled up
       | design, is the hard part.
        
         | hctaw wrote:
         | The two can't be separated at birth. Design is an iterative
         | process that requires feedback loops with the manufacturing
         | teams (including testing and packaging, which may or may not be
         | a part of the fab).
         | 
         | Just an example, the design has to be altered to maximize
         | yields. You don't know what the yields are like or what to
         | alter in the design until you make a few chips and test them,
         | which means you need to design the test harnesses, tape out a
         | prototype, and get both to where they need to be. And then try
         | again.
         | 
         | If the testing, fab, and design people/materials are in
         | different places you have to move things and people around as a
         | part of the process.
         | 
         | It's just an expensive endeavor that's difficult conceptually
         | and logistically, with a lot of institutional knowledge
         | required.
        
           | Ericson2314 wrote:
           | I'm not necessary agreeing with that. Chip fab, jet engine
           | fab, etc. are all at the limits of what Capitalism can
           | handle, as the geopolitics, protectionism, and cronyism
           | attests. The solution is less than clear:
           | 
           | - Because of the enormous costs of duplicated effort. I'm not
           | sure anti-trust will work.
           | 
           | - Nationalist duplication might, but I am not sure whether it
           | will hinder or hasten WWIII.
           | 
           | - Radical IP disembargo with institutional cross pollination
           | works better for codified then opaque-institutional
           | knowledge.
           | 
           | What is nice about vertical disintegration is is forces the
           | the institutional knowledge to by codified. So maybe things
           | can work in tandem, too.
        
       | anigbrowl wrote:
       | You don't need to put the name of the publication in the title,
       | HN does it automatically.
        
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