[HN Gopher] The great bicycle boom of 2020
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The great bicycle boom of 2020
Author : dll
Score : 175 points
Date : 2021-01-11 09:21 UTC (12 hours ago)
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| cmrdporcupine wrote:
| Similar phenomenon has happened with Nordic (cross-country)
| skiing and backcountry skiing gear this winter. Sudden spike in
| interest, stores out of stock of equipment. I suspect most of
| this is purely aspirational, both those activities require large
| amounts of training & skill and access to particular
| conditions/terrain that most people don't have. But it's still
| interesting to watch.
| geephroh wrote:
| Can't wait to pick up an aspirational splitboard for cheap in
| the spring!
| cmrdporcupine wrote:
| I have several aspirational backcountry & telemark setups
| here now. They look very nice. But now I can't travel. Not
| even regionally, really. Province-wide lockdown. And all lift
| served skiing shutdown, too. Also no snow in local area, so
| can't even hit that.
|
| 2020 continues on sucking, right into 2021
| IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
| There are (somewhat awkward, but English) statistics for Berlin
| at
| https://www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/verkehr/verkehrsplanung/radver...
| (No way to link to configured maps, unfortunately).
|
| Some numbers. These are total monthly counts of riders observed
| at the same 17 measurement points:
| 2019 2020 Sep 1,670,000 2,387,000. + 43 %
| Dec 900,000 1,100,000. + 22 %
|
| That's quite an increase year-over-year! The December number are
| lower, but possibly more impressive considering it was rather
| lockdown-ish and general mobility fell somewhat.
|
| It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the weather.
|
| It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's
| somewhat close to a Giffen good
| (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good): People avoid public
| transport and any single one might opt for a car instead. But
| because road capacity is fixed (that's income in the analogy),
| more of it needs to be devoted to the most efficient option, i.
| e. bikes. So the city converted car to bike lanes, and car
| traffic is actually down.
| CaptArmchair wrote:
| > It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the
| weather.
|
| That statistic only observes a change in behaviour. It doesn't
| explain why it changed.
|
| So, I think that claim can/should be falsified:
|
| If there's an increase in bike usage, that's not because people
| feel the weather - in it's own regard - is less of an
| impediment to prefer biking over public transport. It's because
| people choose enduring changing weather conditions over
| accepting serious risk to their health for the sake of
| convenience.
|
| > It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's
| somewhat close to a Giffen good
|
| According to Wikipedia [1]
|
| > There are three necessary preconditions for this situation to
| arise:[citation needed] > the good in question must be an
| inferior good, > there must be a lack of close substitute
| goods, and > the goods must constitute a substantial percentage
| of the buyer's income, but not such > a substantial percentage
| of the buyer's income that none of the associated normal >
| goods are consumed.
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good
|
| So, if the only other close alternate to bicycling was public
| transportation, and other options (car) are because their costs
| outweigh the benefits, then biking would be a Giffen good.
|
| This can be explained either because the perceived costs of the
| alternative - public transportation - became prohibitively
| expensive in terms of an increased health risk and the
| potentially associated costs that come with that risk (death,
| disabilities, healthcare costs, income loss,...). Or because
| people are now more willing to accept changing weather
| conditions (per your claim).
|
| Of course the only way to confirm this is to actually do a
| survey and gauge the motivations that prompted a population to
| change their behaviour.
|
| As an anecdotal aside: I was a heavy user of public
| transportation. I switched to going on foot, or taking my bike
| to get around exactly because of the pandemic.
| IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
| As to weather, I was commenting on the relative number
| between summer and winter. In both years, they hold up better
| than I would have thought, at around 50%. That would fit
| with, for example, commuters using the bike year-round, with
| the other half in summer consisting of tourism, generally
| increased activity, joyrides, etc.
|
| As to Giffen: people are shifting public transport -> car &
| bike. The "budget" (road capacity) is fixed and close to full
| utilisation. Increased demand with inelastic supply results
| "inflation", which is the somewhat convoluted way the income
| effect comes about. Aaaand... yeah, I can't quite remember
| how I made the next part fit. so you may be right.
| Steltek wrote:
| It'd be interesting to see the corresponding public transit
| numbers. In the US, I'm not optimistic about a bike revolution
| lasting past covid. We've seen some new bike infra being
| deployed in Boston but not much more than we'd be getting
| anyway.
|
| When you say car traffic, I presume congestion and not volume
| of cars. I'm sure volume is down overall and I recall from
| discussions about congestion pricing, even a 10% decrease in
| volume can result in congestion completely dissipating. In
| normal times, Induced Demand would lead to volume going back up
| as transit users convert back to cars.
| sremani wrote:
| Most US Public Transportation agencies publish their KPIs.
|
| DFW Metro: https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp
| matsemann wrote:
| I'm an avid biker, and commute by bike all year around even in
| harsh nordic winter climate. But my numbers for 2020 are faaar
| lower than usual. Normally I would bike to and from work 5
| times a week, to swimming 3 times a week, to meet a friend for
| jogging, to the mall, etc. But now all those things are closed,
| so I use the bike for something maybe once a week instead.
|
| So I hope and believe the numbers will be even greater for
| 20211, actually. Multiple new people with bikes, and soon
| people will move about as usual.
| dutch3000 wrote:
| same situation. my commuter bike has been hanging on the wall
| since March. moving more into weekend, MTB rides with my
| family. i find it very hard to get motivated to just ride a
| loop for exercise. the utility of commuting into work really
| motivated me for some reason.
| Moru wrote:
| I started up the old Turf app [1] for having some goal while
| biking. It's a great way of finding new routes you haven't
| seen before. Perfect for a short lunch-ride or in the night
| after the kids are in bed. It's a bit low on zones in the
| rest of the world but the nordic countries have a lot.
| England recently got an upswing too so getting new zones the
| whole time. And if you wish for zones or leave the app
| running over the night, someone will notice you and add zones
| for you. Ofcourse there are some crazy competing going on too
| [2]. I'm not quite there yet...
|
| [1] https://turfgame.com/
|
| [2] https://turfvasterbotten.wordpress.com/2020/11/11/eat-
| sleep-...
| patrickk wrote:
| My experience echoes yours. I love biking to work, especially
| with an e-bike, and I normally did it five days a week, I
| even started blogging about my experiences[1]. With the right
| gear, cycling is really practical form of transport for me to
| completely avoid unnecessary covid risks on public transport.
|
| Now with lockdowns, I'm not biking nearly as much, the weekly
| five-a-side football is closed, there's nothing open, so
| little motivation to walk around town, and so on.
|
| [1] https://ampedcycling.com/is-an-e-bike-actually-worth-it/
| vesinisa wrote:
| I have to second that this is exactly my situation as well.
| Since my elementary school years some two decades ago, I
| don't think I ever cycled so little in one year as in 2020.
| Bicycle is my #1 transport but due to forced remote work and
| generally low level of activity outside home I haven't had
| the need to go much anywhere. (I won't even begin with the
| massively detrimental effects on my fitness level.)
|
| That being said, I sincerely hope people who took up cycling
| during the pandemic will continue to do so 2021+ forward.
| More cyclists = more planning focus on cycling = better &
| safer cycling infrastructure.
| btbuildem wrote:
| Same here. But I've seen a ton of people on bikes this
| summer, and by the looks of it a lot of them were new riders.
| Bike stores were cleared out of inventory, and bike shops /
| coops overloaded with customers. There's been a definite
| surge in cycling where I live.
| ska wrote:
| It's not hard to imagine a situation where normally
| avid/active cyclist are taking fewer trips (since they aren't
| going to an office 5 days a week or whatever) but this loss
| is dwarfed by normally occasional non-cycling people taking
| more trips than average.
|
| The latter group is likely two orders of magnitude larger
| than the former, so the interesting thing will be if some
| people become "converts" as it were, when the restrictions
| are released. I can see arguments both for and against.
|
| It would be interesting to see an analysis of this in a
| couple of years, but comparing areas of long term disruption
| (e.g. USA) vs. shorter (e.g. New Zealand) but that also has
| all the usual problems of comparison.
| outside1234 wrote:
| I'm with you. One thing I try to do to combat that is to
| "commute to my bedroom office via the garage" --> I go for a
| short loop ride in the morning that replicates my commute
| length.
|
| I find that it really helps my energy levels and mental state
| in the same way my commute used to. Obviously, it takes a bit
| more discipline, but I actually look forward to it - a chance
| to check in on the neighborhood etc.
|
| Another hint is it do something new on the route every day.
| It has grown to be quite a mental challenge to figure out a
| street or alley (or way of hooking things up) that I haven't
| taken before!
| skeeter2020 wrote:
| I do something similar, sometimes even riding to work and
| back without ever going inside.
| dmtroyer wrote:
| this is a great idea! i really miss my bike commute.
| ccozan wrote:
| Interesting enough, my "commute" is now walking the dog
| around the area, starting in the kitchen ( or whereever the
| dog - a 2 year husky!, is waiting for me ) and ending up in
| the office "room". The fresh air and the 20-35 mins walk is
| really ideal to kick start my brain for the work. Ideally
| the walk is without the phone, this helps me to really
| disconnect.
| anonfornoreason wrote:
| I have heard this called a faux-mute, catchy name
| analog31 wrote:
| I read somewhere about the idea of a "fake commute" where you
| go for a ride of equivalent duration every day. I did that
| for a while, but have switched to taking a long walk every
| morning. I've gotten the winter bike out, but have barely
| used it this year.
| ogre_codes wrote:
| Similar here. I slacked for a while but when my fitness
| started slipping made an effort to get out almost daily just
| for a spin. Not training, just decompressing and stretching
| the legs so when the weekend comes my buddies don't kill me
| out out mountain bike ride.
| CydeWeys wrote:
| Similar situation here. I live in NYC and commuted year-round
| to work via bicycle for 5 years straight ... and then COVID
| happened, I haven't even been allowed into the office in 9
| months, and my bicycling activity has correspondingly
| plummeted off a cliff. I now do most of my biking on weekends
| (for errands and such), which was far from true before March.
|
| So, it's amazing how much the cycling numbers here have gone
| up even with people like me staying home. I'm looking forward
| to seeing how many people are cycling once it's all over.
| Will people like me going back to cycling be added on top of
| all the others who switched from subway to cycling, or will
| they go back to subway?
| low_common wrote:
| I did the exact opposite as you. I was a commuter biker
| before Covid and then once that stopped, I got Strava and
| took my bike all over the five boroughs. I was biking 100
| miles a week until December when it got a little too cold
| for me. I added a gravel bike to my collection and took
| that out of the city on weekends. 2020 was the year of the
| bike!
| CydeWeys wrote:
| I've just been doing lots of running instead as exercise.
| I don't actually enjoy a lot of the biking in the city
| that much. It's too often too crowded and/or feels just a
| little bit unsafe because of driver misbehavior. I've
| done the whole 100 km ride up to Nyack and back on 9W
| thing and ... those cars man.
| low_common wrote:
| Biking in the city is its own beast - no bones about
| that.
| jamil7 wrote:
| I'm hoping that some of the pop-up bike lanes we had around the
| city during the summer due to the lockdown will either return
| this year or drive some decision making around bike
| infrastructure in the city, although it always seems too little
| to late and to move so slowly. With an increase in cyclists
| last year we also sadly had an increase in cyclist deaths.
| Mauricebranagh wrote:
| Probably because people avoided public transport (busses and
| trams) you need to see this data as well.
| mswann wrote:
| General mobility in Berlin 2020 compared to 2019 [0] according
| to Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in: Sep -5 % to
| -13 % Dec -20 % to -41 % [incomplete data]
|
| [0] https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/
| thorin wrote:
| Generally the UK leisure/outdoor industry has done pretty well
| this year, lots of people buying bikes, kayaks, canoe, SUP, and
| other sporting gear. They are definitely selling as many as they
| can get. I guess any UK based manufacturers will have been able
| to sell as many as they can make, maybe more local fabricators or
| at least assemblers will be able to start up as a result.
|
| Of course the 2nd hand market for all this stuff has been booming
| too, physically as well as on fb/ebay. People have been paying
| new prices for old goods. I could have made a bit of money buying
| and selling kayaks this year!
| jwr wrote:
| Sadly, this seems not to be happening so much in less developed
| countries in Central/Eastern Europe, notably Poland. My educated
| guess is that it's because a car is still a status symbol here,
| rather than a (very) costly tool for moving around.
|
| Don't get me wrong, bike usage in Warsaw (where I am right now)
| is increasing, but it isn't nearly the revolution other EU cities
| have seen, and the support from authorities is lukewarm.
| hadrien01 wrote:
| Version without ads (works outside the UK for some reason):
| https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/bespoke/made-on-earth/the-great...
| IMTDb wrote:
| It will be interesting to see how the bike usage will survive
| post-pandemic. Anecdotal experience in my social circle: Many
| people bought a bike just to keep active during the pandemic
| measures. Many justified the "somewhat impulsive" spending by
| hoping to use it for short commute/transportation needs in the
| future. Most bike have been collecting dust in a garage for
| several month, after the first three "bike excursion", the
| conversion rate is close to 0%.
| aqme28 wrote:
| That's interesting. I've heard differently here in NYC. I
| imagine the "stickiness" will vary based on things like local
| infrastructure.
|
| Also it's the winter right now-- a historically low biking
| season. Your friends might pick it up again in the spring.
| walrus01 wrote:
| Bicycle enthusiasts I know predict that there will be a glut of
| barely used, higher-end road bikes and components for sale in
| 6-12 months from now, after people realize that their impulsive
| $3500-6000 purchase was not the best idea ever. I'm not even
| talking about really high end stuff, basically what you would
| get if you walked into a Trek, Specialized or Giant dealer in
| spring 2020 and bought a full carbon frame road bike with
| mechanical 105 groupset on it. No Di2 or whatever.
| midnightclubbed wrote:
| While supply struggles to catch up with demand (and with
| 'regular' order levels) the used bike market will command
| high prices. Unless those people who spent $6k on a bike
| 'need' the money they'll be looking for a premium price.
|
| Once the market stabilizes the bike manufacturers and dealers
| will go back to offering generous trade-in and 'last years
| model' discounts and those impulse bikes will have to drop a
| lot off their original price to look like a bargain. I
| suspect it will look a lot like the US used car market where
| a new car is cheaper than the same thing with 20k miles - by
| the time you account for manufacturer promotional discounts
| and dealer haggling.
|
| Also I'm not sure I'd want to roll the dice on any used
| carbon frameset or wheels. Are modern carbon frames less
| brittle than I am led to believe?
| low_common wrote:
| I'm betting on this too. I'm already seeing some 2019-2020
| barely-used $5000 bikes going for $2500-3000 on second hand
| bike sites right now. Can't wait to scoop one in a few
| months. I'm saving up for a carbon frame with Di2 myself
| haha.
| 8fGTBjZxBcHq wrote:
| I live in a big city with a lot of tech workers and white
| collar professionals so plenty of disposable income.
|
| Just from talking to people out riding this summer it seems
| like a lot of people bought bikes they could technically
| afford but were way above their preferred price range simply
| due to availability.
|
| What people wanted was $500 bikes but there were only $2500
| bikes so that's what they got. It's not like they're stupid
| or even necessarily made a bad choice. They wanted a bike and
| got the bike they could get.
| midnightclubbed wrote:
| I wonder if this will negatively impact mid-tier bike sales
| in 2-3 years time? Some of those riders would have bought a
| $500 bike, realized how much fun they were having and then
| upgraded. A $2500 bike is unlikely to be upgraded for a
| good while longer.
|
| Not being able to dine out, take vacations, or go to
| concerts has put a lot of disposable income in the hands of
| a good chunk of the population this year.
| 8fGTBjZxBcHq wrote:
| I kinda doubt it. A lot of those were bought by people
| who wouldn't have bought any bike this year or any year
| without the pandemic. So they were definitely not going
| to upgrade next year or whatever.
|
| Some of those people are probably on bikes that don't fit
| that great due to availability and they'll be looking for
| better sizing as they get more into it.
|
| And of course the majority probably won't get super into
| cycling but again they weren't going to either way so
| it's not really a "lost" sale.
|
| Plus I mean it's kind of a running joke among bike people
| that you don't really upgrade like it's a piece of
| technology. You keep the old ones and just accumulate
| more as you go.
| gonzo41 wrote:
| The most important part about being locked in my house for a
| month was the hours of dog walking, and hours of exercise I got
| to take. If, on the flip side of this pandemic we end up with
| people who use their car less, then that's a good thing. For the
| environment, for infrastructure, for other car drivers.
|
| Bikes, and electric bikes make a lot of sense these days and they
| are way more CC friendly than a cybertruck.
| DebtDeflation wrote:
| Totally agree. I just placed an order for an eFatbike last
| week. I've spent the last 9 months hiking every possible hiking
| trail within an hour or so of me. Now it's time to explore all
| the MTB trails and fire roads. Getting outside on weekends is
| the only thing that has kept me sane since the pandemic
| started. I haven't been to my company office, client sites,
| gym, restaurant, etc. since mid March. Other than to go grocery
| shopping every other week and hiking on weekends, I rarely
| leave the house at all.
| MrBuddyCasino wrote:
| Contrary to what people might think, 2020 has not been a good
| year for bike dealers, especially small ones. The demand was
| huge, but due to side-effects of the corona pandemic, bike
| production in Asia was running on at most 80% capacity. Some
| assembly lines were stopped for several weeks, and distancing
| rules means reduced throughput. The problem: all orders with the
| big manufacturers are placed a year in advance. This means that
| if you were too late to place your orders in 2020, you will not
| get any inventory for 2021. Any by "too late" I mean "the same
| time as in 2019".
|
| People want to buy, but stock is depleted and production reduced,
| and many small dealers won't survive 2021 for lack of inventory.
| KraftKacke wrote:
| In my yard I can see about 6-10 bikes rotting away. Shop owners
| could make upcycling a business.
|
| Anyway, I think it's getting really cold the next months, so
| demand will probably go down a bit.
| kasey_junk wrote:
| No they can't because they can't get parts. Even things like
| patch kits were hard to find for a big chunk of the year.
| trentnix wrote:
| Former bike dealer here (I've written about it briefly for
| anyone who might by be interested:
| http://www.sciencerocketry.com/blog/great-work-and-new-
| begin...). You are correct that dealers have been unable to
| capitalize on the boom to realize big profits. There's plenty
| of service business but the labor part isn't really profitable
| (in my experience). The ability to sell parts with service can
| be profitable, but the distributors and manufacturers don't
| have any parts to sell.
|
| One positive is that those dealers drowning in older, unsold
| stock have been able to turn a lot of that into cash. That's
| allowed a few of them to restore some financial health to their
| business and get out from under some of their debt to vendors
| and other creditors.
|
| But even so, the bike business is so commoditized and the
| supply chain is so lose that bike shops (and manufacturers as
| well) have a pretty low ceiling of profitability. Even in the
| midst of a boom, the economics of the bike business restrict it
| to a lifestyle business at best. For some shops, this (likely
| temporary) boom probably presents the best window of
| opportunity to close their doors.
| MrBuddyCasino wrote:
| Looks like you had a sizeable well-run business, too bad it
| still didn't work out. At least you tried! I always wonder
| about those tiny inner-city bike shops and how it is possible
| to make a living.
| trentnix wrote:
| We had our day! Business was okay, just not going to go far
| beyond a lifestyle business. A lifestyle business that
| takes away your weekends and part of every evening is a
| grind, so it was just time to move along.
|
| I very much learned the importance of business models and
| product-market fit, though!
| cycomanic wrote:
| I see that you're from the US, I know that in many places in
| Europe and Australia, the workshop has become the most
| profitable part of the shops. In fact in Australia I know of
| several workshop only bike "shops", essentially with the
| raise of online sales lots of people just need their bikes
| fixed.
|
| I find it interesting though that you say the bike business
| is commoditized. In particular there are several bike
| manufacturers who have transitioned into live-style brands
| (the big one being specialized). Their prices have gone
| through the roof, while their manufacturing is all outsourced
| to cheapest bidders in China. It's now common for top of the
| line race bikes to cost >$10,000 while the frames for the
| bikes cost them ~$300 shipped to the US (and the total bike
| might be on the order of $1000-$2000 max). Mind you nothing
| of that ends up with the dealers.
| usrusr wrote:
| Bike shops absolutely need to turn themselves into workshops,
| in other words increase hourly rates until repairs become a
| worthwhile business on their own. Even if only because
| internet.
|
| The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike work
| can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People can
| pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars to
| sell beer at a similar price.
|
| If shops insist on offering workshop services at a loss for
| bikes bought at the establishment, they are free to offer
| huge rebates as a hardware sales argument.
| ogre_codes wrote:
| > The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike
| work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People
| can pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars
| to sell beer at a similar price.
|
| In the town I used to live in, Performance bought out the
| only decent bike shop in town so I got into the habit of
| buying online because I could wrench better than the
| Performance mechanics. When I moved up to Oregon there are
| 5 good bike shops here in town and they all charge
| reasonable rates so I use them whenever possible.
|
| I do still buy online and install parts myself, not to save
| a buck, but because it's more convenient than taking my
| bike into the shop and leaving it there for a few days.
| midnightclubbed wrote:
| There is a value add from going to a bar. I'm paying for
| the social experience.
|
| A local bike shop repair has two benefits over doing it
| myself - experience and convenience.
|
| Unfortunately for bike shops the people who are most in
| need of their experience are those who are newer to riding
| (or dusting off a 20 year old unridden bike). When the
| workshop labour charge is approaching the perceived worth
| of a bike the customer is not going to want to use those
| services (more likely to dump the bike and buy a new one
| from a sporting goods store or Walmart).
|
| People who ride regularly are more likely to have bikes
| where the cost of a repair is a small fraction of the
| bike's worth (personal or actual) but they are also more
| likely to have the tools and experience to do the work
| themselves.
|
| I go back into mtb riding 2 years ago and upgraded to a
| mid-range full suspension bike at the end of 2019. While I
| was familiar with basic bike maintenance I didn't know what
| I was doing with some of the newer bike tech. When my bike
| needed a service in the summer I tried to use my local bike
| store - they needed my bike for a month in order to get the
| work done (backed up due to Covid demand).
|
| Rather than miss all those rides I bought the tools and
| figured how to do the jobs myself. Now I have the tools I
| can do those jobs again for almost no outlay (and wrenching
| is therapeutic).
| MrFantastic wrote:
| I do a lot of my own bike repairs. When I take it to the
| local shop, they can fix it better than I can. When it's
| slow my local shop will show me how to do some tips on
| some of the different repairs. I replaced all the cables
| and shifters on my bike and I had a hard time getting the
| derailleur adjustments correct.
|
| I had to replace some spokes, that would have taken me a
| while to do on my own and some specialized equipment I
| won't need again for a decade.
| matsemann wrote:
| Lol yeah, I tried building my own wheel, and getting it
| true was such an art that I ended up writing my thesis
| about bicycle spokes...
| trentnix wrote:
| Some in the bike industry have been asking for that very
| thing for years. The most common answer is, "you first".
| usrusr wrote:
| I really don't get what they would be missing though:
| "foreign" (e.g. internet) brands would usually be
| rejected before that price hike anyways (unless workshop
| capacity is _desperately_ idle) and preferred customers
| (qualified by bike purchase) could still be offered
| arbitrary service discounts. Is it really just the old
| bait and switch of offering to service a clunker for the
| price of a hamburger and then suddenly realizing that the
| bike is impossible to salvage if the customer happens to
| be not utterly wrong size for that unloved bike that has
| been clogging inventory for three years?
| trentnix wrote:
| No bait and switch, and my experiences aren't from the
| boom period so take my commentary with a grain of salt.
| What I can tell you is that there is an immense amount of
| pressure from competitors and from customers to keep
| service prices low. So the prospect of raising service
| prices is challenging when your customers are spoiled
| with cheap labor.
|
| Also, servicing a lower-end bike ends up meaning the
| service is a large percentage of the original cost. So
| the prospect of paying, say, $150 for a tune-up, cables,
| and a new chain on a $400 bike _feels_ excessive. But if
| you do it for any cheaper than that, you are either
| compromising the quality of your work or compromising
| your ability to turn a profit.
| usrusr wrote:
| Sure, a "boutique bike service station" certainly
| wouldn't attract your typical Wal-Mart bike owner. But
| those bikes won't be served by the bike shop that runs
| the workshop at a loss for his loyal bike buyers either.
|
| That part of the market is usually served, quite well
| actually for both sides, by a shop that is one third
| preowned bikes, one third budget parts and one third
| highschool job repairs (sometimes they also rent out the
| preowned). Lifesavers for my theft-immune three speed
| (they'll happily take on daring salvage operations nobidy
| else would even attempt), but I surely no place were I'd
| leave one of my Campag steeds even for just a tire
| inflation.
| Mauricebranagh wrote:
| You know On Licenses ( Pubs/Bars) pay massive amounts of
| tax compared to Off Licences (Supermarkets / Bodgegas)
| klyrs wrote:
| > The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike
| work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that.
|
| If the shop charges more than I value my time, than I won't
| go to the shop except to buy parts and tools to fix my bike
| with. Not sure why you think DIY needs to die. This is a
| supply/demand problem and ease of repair will depress
| prices.
|
| Where the workshop model might work is the fabrication of
| parts. The supply chain has tanked; I'd be willing to pay
| double on that chainring I busted and nobody can stock.
| whalesalad wrote:
| I emailed 7 shops in my state of Michigan recently about a fat
| bike. All but one emailed me back with a sad face and said
| everyone is screwed until summer due to no supply.
|
| I got really lucky and found one a 2 hour drive away. Now it's
| an appreciating asset in my garage if you can believe it. I
| ride it of course but ever have I seen this kind of demand for
| bikes in my entire life.
|
| I hope this is going to serve as a global correction on our
| need to be more self sufficient. I've been thinking a lot
| recently about how we took two steps forward with globalization
| and tech and we probably need to take one step back. Pretty
| much every bike and bike part is made in Taiwan or China. I'd
| love to have a made in the USA bike just as much as I'd imagine
| folks in the UK, South America, etc... feel the same.
| UI_at_80x24 wrote:
| Look into the niche markets then. Like recumbents.
|
| http://longbikes.com located in Colorado
| https://www.terratrike.com located in Michigan
|
| There are atleast 3 others I can think of off the top of my
| head.
|
| If you are looking for "A Generic Bicycle at Walmart prices",
| then yes you are SOL.
| busterarm wrote:
| You got emails back!?
|
| Here, in NYC of all places, I have 0 returned emails and even
| having cast a wider net.
|
| Of course there's plenty of cheap e-bikes with junky
| components.
| whalesalad wrote:
| It took a _while_ for some of them. I actually just got one
| reply yesterday and this all happened before Xmas.
| busterarm wrote:
| My problem is mainly with looking for specific
| components.
|
| I want a decent commuter with belt drive and higher end
| components. Disc brakes.
|
| I can get the cheap versions of this all day but not
| really the best stuff unless I possibly order it built by
| Maxx or get a Riese & Muller e-bike. Still looks like
| waiting until at least April though.
| Filligree wrote:
| I got the Riese & Muller, and I don't regret it. Just
| make sure you get the high-speed version. 25 km/h is
| _not_ very fast.
| whalesalad wrote:
| If you are comfortable/familiar with wrenching - it is
| often cheaper to build a bike yourself. It can be a pain
| - but in this situation I think it is the next best
| option.
|
| One of the bike shops I had contacted suggested it, since
| a lot of shops around the country have a good stock of
| parts and you can usually find a nice used frameset
| online.
| busterarm wrote:
| It is almost never cheaper to build a bike yourself.
| Labor cost is not a factor. Completes are 99% built by
| the time they get to a store for selling.
|
| Complete bikes are a highly competitive market whereas
| bike parts are mostly not.
|
| You will get much more mileage for your dollars buying
| completes that have exactly what you want or with some
| small delta of upgrades.
| petre wrote:
| There's also a problem with component availability. If
| you just want a fixie or a frankenbike it's okay but for
| anything else be prepared to wait and compromise. I just
| managed to order the last components I need for the bike
| I'm building this year. I had to compromise a bit, mix
| hubs drivetrain components from several Shimano lineups,
| past and current. The frame was preordered and paid in
| full in June, it should have arrived in August, finally
| got it in October.
| busterarm wrote:
| Yes, several of the things that I want are unobtainium at
| the moment, but do come in some completes.
| jrockway wrote:
| What sort of bike are you looking for? I had these folks
| build me a custom bike a few years ago:
| https://www.acmebicycleco.com/ and I loved every part of
| dealing with them.
|
| They also did some custom work on my commuting bike (which
| involves quite a hodgepodge of fender/brake compromises)
| which was 10x better than I could do myself.
| usrusr wrote:
| But the reduced availability surely enabled dealers to sell a
| far bigger fraction (likely very close to all!) of what they
| sold at list price or reasonably close, whereas a typical
| season will see a considerable part of inventory being pushed
| out at wild discounts. The entire pricing structure is built
| for a high margin/high discount pattern. I wouldn't be
| surprised if some would be able to earn more than usually even
| on less than half the inventory, and the upstream availability
| surely didn't collapse that hard.
| ogre_codes wrote:
| In a moment of inspired genius, one of the local bike shop
| owners stuffed a big chunk of savings into bike inventory back
| in March/ April. He had bikes stuffed into every corner of the
| shop and was pretty much the only shop with decent inventory
| for most of the year.
|
| But now even his inventory is bare. Maybe I should sell one of
| my bikes to help relieve the pressure.
|
| Hmm
|
| Nah.
| Triv888 wrote:
| Around here, even Walmart has no bicycle inventory... had to go
| to the flea market and buy a used one.
| walrus01 wrote:
| For some news on this from the perspective of the individual
| bicycle retail stores, there's a vertical/trade journal for
| them:
|
| https://www.bicycleretailer.com/
|
| If you go through the past news articles there, lots of info
| about import data, sales boom and sell out of in stock
| inventory during 2020, etc.
| fredley wrote:
| By extension: it seems to have been a _great_ year for bike
| thieves, in the UK at least. Anecdotally, bike theft is through
| the roof.
| KraftKacke wrote:
| Business idea: Make something like the iPhone's snitching low
| power bluetooth thingy for bikes. I am sure bike owners will
| glad run an app which monitors the surrounding for stolen
| bluetooth beacons. Make it work so it can be barricaded in
| the seat tube or integrated into the frame, not easily
| removed or destroyed. Make stealing cheap bikes risky and
| troublesome. Nothing will protect a 5k$ sports bike.
| fredley wrote:
| > not easily removed or destroyed
|
| So like a lock? It's an arms race, and if these things did
| really take off, bike thieves would find a way to defeat
| them (easy enough to detect if a bike has one after all).
|
| Also it's not as if many many iPhones aren't being swiped
| on the streets of London either.
| CydeWeys wrote:
| No, a lock is easy to remove/destroy. It's at most a
| minute with the right tool (angle grinder), and the bike
| itself is left unaffected.
|
| A tracking device though would be embedded inside the
| frame itself, and thus not be removable without cutting
| up (and thus likely destroying) the frame. The frame is
| the single-most valuable component on a bike.
| Someone wrote:
| I'm not that knowledgeable about what materials can be
| used to construct one, but doesn't "embedded into the
| frame" mean "embedded in a Faraday cage"? Or could one
| use the frame as an antenna?
| CydeWeys wrote:
| Yes, you'd need to handle the antenna issue. As far as
| engineering problems go though that's not a particularly
| hard challenge. Phones and laptops with metal cases have
| no problem with this despite a lack of external antennas.
| fizx wrote:
| Bikes expensive enough to have a tracking device will
| largely be carbon fiber.
| usrusr wrote:
| > The frame is the single-most valuable component on a
| bike.
|
| Depends. And parts can be fenced with much less risk than
| entire bikes. I doubt that trackers provide any actual
| safety improvement, neither in the small (what will _you_
| do with the information you might get?) nor in the big
| (will trackers eventually reduce the number of thieves?).
|
| What might help, I think, are serial number registries.
| Rohloff hub serials can be registered by owners and
| checked by would-be buyers, which I think does have some
| of the desired effect of making those bikes less
| attractive to thieves.
| matsemann wrote:
| My insurance on the bike is lower if I use a
| https://bikefinder.com/en/ which is a device in the bike
| that tracks it (gps).
| secfirstmd wrote:
| FYI an alternative is you can get tiny GPS trackers about
| the size of the top of your thumb for about the same price
| as the various Bluetooth LE options (about 20 Euros on
| Alibaba. Stick a SIM in them and put it on the bike,
| underneath the seat hidden etc and they are pretty decent,
| can last up to two weeks without recharging. Plus they are
| more likely to work and much much easier to track down your
| bike as you can use various apps to track in real time.
| avn2109 wrote:
| What do I type into google to buy this? A bit of
| searching has not turned up anything similar to what you
| describe :( Lots of ads for Tile and similar (aka not GPS
| trackers).
| patrickk wrote:
| I wrote about bike GPS trackers here:
| https://ampedcycling.com/do-electric-bikes-have-gps-
| trackers...
|
| The Guardian bike tracker is one potential option. I
| would caution against a generic bluetooth tracker, I am
| not sure if you can integrate it with a SIM card easily.
| secfirstmd wrote:
| There's loads out there. For example on Aliexpress
|
| https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005001742170443.html?spm
| =a2...
| mauvehaus wrote:
| It might be a lousy year for sales, but it should be an
| absolutely killer year for repair and tuneup work. The required
| bits for most tuneups are limited to lube, tubes, cable, and
| housing.
|
| Those four things will get you a long way with most bikes that
| "ran when parked" 10-20 years ago. There is a vast number of
| bikes in the US that meet basically that description.
|
| Source: was a volunteer bike mechanic at the Ohio City Bike Co-
| op. They got a lot of donations in that were at most 60 minutes
| of work from being rideable.
|
| https://ohiocitycycles.org/
| CydeWeys wrote:
| Brake pads aren't on that list? That's the other obvious
| consumable I can think of.
|
| And for what it's worth my mechanic ran low on chains and
| sprockets at some point. I don't know if that was just him or
| larger supply chain issues though.
| mauvehaus wrote:
| Brake pads wear out after thousands of miles. Most of the
| neglected bikes in the US got parked long before they
| accumulated enough miles to wear out brake pads. I've got
| maybe 4000 miles of mostly urban commuting (i.e. much
| harder on brake pads than rides in the country) on my nice
| road bike and I haven't changed them yet. For casual
| cyclists, brake pads are a lifetime part.
|
| Possible exception: glazed brake pads, but still relatively
| uncommon. Cables and housing are much bigger wear items for
| most bikes. Mostly because they aren't stainless at the low
| end and rust.
|
| Chains will also rust, but it's pretty hard to end up with
| an unsalvageable chain unless a bike has been left outside
| for a long time. Source: left my beater road bike outside
| at the curb for 9 years in Boston, including winters. Lubed
| the chain a couple times a year. It still runs.
| midnightclubbed wrote:
| Maybe on road bikes but MTB brake pads are definitely a
| non lifetime part. Replaced my rear pads at the weekend,
| maybe 0.2mm remaining after around 800 miles or so of
| riding.
|
| Getting oil on pads is also fairly easy to (accidentally)
| do. Learnt to be less liberal with the spray oil the hard
| way!
|
| Unfortunately for bike shops replacing disk brake pads is
| trivial. Bleeding the Hydraulic system not so much, if it
| wasn't for the stopping power I'd trade back to brake
| cables any day.
| Manfred wrote:
| Do you mean they only got 80% of what they ordered in 2019 for
| 2020?
| MrBuddyCasino wrote:
| No, 2020 is unaffected. 2021 will be problematic.
| enriquto wrote:
| So true. I went to a local bike shop in november and they had
| no bikes to sell. The guy, almost in tears, desperately showed
| me the waiting list on the provider website: next bikes
| expected by April 2021. He had sold all his stock a couple of
| months before, and had a lot of people willing to buy him
| bikes, yet he had to close the shop at the end.
| ubermonkey wrote:
| "Contrary to what people might think, 2020 has not been a good
| year for bike dealers, especially small ones. "
|
| Well, that depends on who you ask.
|
| Several local stores here saw it coming, and places enormous
| orders with their distributors when there was still inventory.
| My local did WELL -- they were aggressive and basically maxed
| their credit buying bikes from $400 to about $1200 (ie the
| sweet spot for casual riders), and sold every single one they
| could get their hands on.
|
| They're now the go-to joint in inner Houston for e-bikes, too.
|
| So there was a play to be made, and a way to surf this thing,
| but I also wouldn't be surprised to learn that this shop in
| particular was one of the few to really do it right.
| jacurtis wrote:
| Well my experience talking to all the local bike shops in my
| area is that they actually have less inventory to sell than
| previous years, compounded with the problem of increased
| demand.
|
| My local shop that is a Trek Dealer said last October that
| they were only just starting to get the bikes that they
| ordered back in February (pre-pandemic). Meaning that their
| standard inventory for summer never arrived. I just talked to
| this shop again this weekend because I was in there for ski
| service (like many bike shops in the Rocky Mountains, they
| are ski shops in the winter and bike shops in the summer),
| and the guy showed me their list of pending orders. They are
| expecting an order of bikes from Trek by the end of January
| that will complete the order they placed LAST APRIL. So at
| least for Trek, that is how far behind they are.
|
| I have also visited 2 different dealers that sell Specialized
| ("Specialized" is the brand name). One of them (the smaller
| one) told me that they have $100,000 worth of bikes and
| accessories on order and have been waiting for over 5 months
| on them to arrive with no update on any changes.
|
| The other Specialized Dealer is a big dealer in this area and
| they only have one bike in stock, a Peter Sagan edition Race
| Bike priced around $10k and 2 child sized bikes. They said
| they are still waiting for their orders from April to arrive.
|
| One good sign was from a local shop that sells Santa Cruz
| Mountain Bikes. They apparently are only about 2 months
| behind. But that shop has still struggled to keep bikes in
| stock. So their demo fleet for people to take up to the ski
| resort (for downhill mountain biking) last summer was all
| previous model-year bikes because they couldn't set aside
| bikes for their demo fleet because they were selling as fast
| as they arrived. In fact he told me that they have been
| selling bikes off a waiting list for people 4-5 states away
| who are driving 12-24 straight hours to pick up bikes because
| this shop has been able to keep some in stock.
| ubermonkey wrote:
| Dealers for Trek and Specialized have not done as well
| here. I think this MAY be because those dealers are mostly
| all-in on whichever brand they carry. The shop I bought my
| Specialized Roubaix from in 2014, for example, HAS a very
| small number of non-Specialized bikes (maybe 4-6 AllCity
| plus a couple Moots), but the rest of the shop is ALL
| SPECIALIZED. You know what folks say about egg/basket
| redundancy.
|
| The shop I mentioned that was clever and has done well as a
| result isn't a dealer for either. They carry BMC, Cervelo,
| Santa Cruz, Salsa, and some others, and they've managed to
| stay busy and stocked all year.
| cycomanic wrote:
| One of the aspects that really exacerbated the situation
| for road bikes was that Shimano (by far the biggest
| component manufacturer) was expected to release their new
| top of the line group-set this year.
|
| Because they typically introduce new technology which is
| somewhat incompatible with previous generations (they were
| expected to go to 2x12 speed like the two other
| manufacturers), everyone was holding off on orders and the
| end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
|
| The manufacturers also expected a low volume year, hence
| they did not order that many components and frames either,
| so everyone was caught off-guard when the pandemic hit.
| FreshFries wrote:
| Here in Switzerland it has been a good yeah however. During the
| Lockdown the sales have increased by 25%. People use their
| bikes more too. And the both the in and export of e-bikes has
| increased.
|
| Sorry, all in German:
|
| https://bellevue.nzz.ch/reisen-entdecken/velo-boom-in-der-sc...
|
| https://www.velosuisse.ch/e-bike-markt-waechst-weiter-mit-gr...
| disabled wrote:
| True. In Switzerland, it is expensive to even hold a driver's
| license. Driving in general is expensive.
|
| While public transportation is phenomenal, clean, and can be
| relied on, it's a pandemic. So, it makes sense that people
| are riding their bikes.
| MrBuddyCasino wrote:
| The year 2020 was good in terms of sales. But its effects in
| 2021 will lead to vendor consolidation.
| learnstats2 wrote:
| Do bike dealers not also make money from increased demand for
| services?
| dfgdghdf wrote:
| Servicing (except perhaps puncture repairs) is a very low
| margin business. This is why online retail has hurt the bike
| industry so hard: the servicing was subsidized by bike and
| component sales. Now, local bike shops are expected to
| service bikes purchased online.
| notesinthefield wrote:
| Ive experience with three shops, given the lowish margins,
| transaction costs of stock and sometimes reduction in
| mechanics - its not nearly enough to make up the deficit. The
| most lucrative services, fittings, are not something every
| shop does or is equipped for. Maintenance is relatively cheap
| and 2020 waiting lists were sometimes months long given the
| spike in riders forcing many to DIY. Many will let you order
| parts through the shop but prices are almost always more
| expensive than going to the vendor site.
| tonyedgecombe wrote:
| Supplies of spare parts have been constrained as well. It
| took two months to get some replacement tyres for my bike.
| Symbiote wrote:
| There's probably a gap in the market for bike shops in Denmark
| (and the Netherlands too). Everyone here already owns at least
| one bicycle, so there was no need to purchase another. The
| shops still have plenty of stock, and a quick look a the
| website shows 10-15% "January" discounts.
|
| However, none of the four online shops I tried deliver outside
| Denmark.
| ivan1783 wrote:
| Interesting, I have heard this already many times from bike shop
| owners here in Germany but in my personal experience I have not
| seen/felt more crowded bike lanes (and I ride a lot). Purely
| anecdotal, however.
| lorenzfx wrote:
| I observed much more crowded bike lanes (in Hamburg),
| especially during the morning commute between 8 and 9. There
| were bicycle traffic jams in places where none were last year.
|
| Also, I observed lots and lots of blue-tired rented bicycles
| during the summer, though their numbers seems to have reduced a
| lot since the weather got wet and cold.
| Symbiote wrote:
| The blue-tyred bikes are long-term rental bikes from
| https://swapfiets.com . They're a good deal for someone who
| is only living somewhere for ~6 months or less.
| exabrial wrote:
| Usually big cities try things like bicycle lanes. This has
| moderate success for brave bicycle riders but probably is not a
| safe for less brave riders around cars that aren't used to
| bicycles.
|
| I keep trying to point my local government, since they've already
| taken my money anyway, towards the Bentonville model. Instead of
| building bike lanes, build single track that runs through the
| town. This has been incredibly successful for them. Instead of
| building sidewalks they build dirt paths.
|
| The other option is streamway buffer trails which completely
| remove bikes from traffic and provide shortcuts without red
| lights through the city.
| zip1234 wrote:
| Not all bike lanes are created equal. Paint does not protect
| riders. Plastic cones do not protect riders. Car drivers can
| still veer into a bike lane that is delineated in this manner
| if they are not paying attention. Actual protected bike lanes
| that have concrete or steel barriers do protect those on bikes.
| kevin_thibedeau wrote:
| Protected lanes set up cyclists to get t-boned by turning
| drivers. In the US these are effectively glorified sidewalks
| where every road and driveway crossing is a death trap.
| TulliusCicero wrote:
| That's why you also have protected intersections.
|
| This is how they do it in the Netherlands, world leader in
| safe biking for everyone.
| Muximize wrote:
| Protected lanes should be accompanied by protected
| intersections as well: https://youtu.be/FlApbxLz6pA
| CydeWeys wrote:
| The real problem in the US is that we aren't building protected
| bike lanes networks that treat riders as first-class users like
| the Netherlands does. Most of our "bike lanes" are nothing more
| than narrowed painted lanes on the road sandwiched between fast
| moving traffic and parked cars (with potentially opening
| doors). Non-experienced cyclists will rightfully not feel safe
| using these lanes because they _aren 't_ safe. But build better
| infrastructure and even children can use it safely.
| u801e wrote:
| The only good infrastructure makes use of existing rail right
| of way or paths near rivers. If they provide a way to get to
| various destinations around town or a fast way to travel
| between towns, then they'll be used and prove useful.
|
| Protected bicycle lanes is a misnomer. Protected, in traffic
| engineering terms, refers to something like a protected
| traffic light phase where one stream of traffic has exclusive
| access to the intersection (e.g., a protected left turn
| arrow).
|
| The barrier separated lanes reduce the visibility of cyclists
| from the motorists' point of view and vice versa. When both
| get to an intersecton and the motorist needs to turn right,
| it's not possible for them to see the cyclist well enough in
| advance to actually yield to them. The same thing happens to
| cyclists because they can't easily see approaching traffic
| due to visual obstructions.
|
| The safest solution is to have cyclists follow the same rules
| of the road that all other vehicle operators follow and allow
| cyclists full use of the lane they're in. That is, get rid of
| laws that require cyclists to ride as far right as
| practicable regardless of the presence of marked lanes or use
| a bike lane (e.g.,
| https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/VAT/1234).
| Muximize wrote:
| Or you could build protected intersections, as is standard
| in the Netherlands: https://youtu.be/FlApbxLz6pA
| u801e wrote:
| Drivers in the US are trained to yield to traffic before
| entering an intersection. They don't typically yield to
| traffic when exiting one. For pedestrians moving at
| walking pace, it's possible for them to see the
| pedestrian about to cross and yield since the pedestrian
| will be very close to the intersection.
|
| A cyclist 20 to 30 feet away will not be in view of the
| motorist who is in the process of accelerating as they
| exit the intersection.
|
| Making intersecton navigation more complex makes it more
| likely that someone will make a mistake.
| Muximize wrote:
| There's usually no need to yield, traffic signals
| regulate that. The idea here is to create a more
| forgiving environment where making mistakes is less
| likely and less harmful. Thousands of these intersections
| have been build, here's some examples and some US context
| and research:
|
| https://youtu.be/5HDN9fUlqU8
|
| http://www.protectedintersection.com
|
| https://altago.com/wp-content/uploads/Evolution-of-the-
| Prote...
| u801e wrote:
| > There's usually no need to yield, traffic signals
| regulate that
|
| Yet, the one example of a protected intersection I'm
| aware of in the US in Salt Lake City Utah[1] doesn't have
| bicycle specific traffic signals that regulate turning
| movements. They rely on motorists yielding to cyclists,
| or cyclists yielding to motorists. This causes problems
| when cyclists believe they have pedestrian style right-
| of-way when there's no law supporting that notion and
| it's not possible to see a cyclist moving at 20 to 30
| feet per second in time to yield to them as they're about
| to cross the path of the motorist.
|
| [1] https://twitter.com/i/status/654674368597852161
| TulliusCicero wrote:
| This kind of attitude is amazing to me.
|
| American bike infra design and culture has been a failure
| on nearly every level, and yet you're rejecting the
| lessons from the world leader.
|
| Do you really think American drivers wouldn't eventually
| adapt to better infrastructure? Even the Dutch had to
| learn at some point.
| u801e wrote:
| > American bike infra design and culture has been a
| failure on nearly every level
|
| In what way? I live in a town with a major university and
| there are plenty of cyclists on the roads leading to and
| from campus as well as on campus itself. This is the case
| at many universities I've been to.
|
| Also, as far as I'm aware, there are no protected bike
| lane installations anywhere around campus or in town, but
| we do have a nice rail trail.
| CydeWeys wrote:
| You're over-thinking it. "Protected" just means physical
| protection is provided. E.g. right now a lot of the
| supposedly separated bike lanes near me in Manhattan aren't
| protected in any meaningful way, so you often see cars
| illegally parked in them and sometimes even driving in them
| (!). Protection is as simple as physical curbs and other
| barriers that prevent vehicles from being able to get into
| the bike lanes. That's protection. Intersections actually
| do tend to be protected the most because they have started
| building some curbs at corners as pedestrian refuges
| between the bike and vehicle lanes, which have the side-
| effect of keeping cars out.
| u801e wrote:
| > You're over-thinking it. "Protected" just means
| physical protection is provided.
|
| I'm using the standard definition of protected (as
| opposed to permissive) as used in the traffic engineering
| profession. Besides, I've heard the term protected used
| for lanes where flexi bollards are placed between the
| general purpose lane and bike lane. This in no way is
| going to provide any notion of protection and there's no
| intersection management separating traffic flow in terms
| of time slices (as would be done using a traffic signal).
|
| > Protection is as simple as physical curbs and other
| barriers that prevent vehicles from being able to get
| into the bike lanes. That's protection. Intersections
| actually do tend to be protected the most because they
| have started building some curbs at corners as pedestrian
| refuges between the bike and vehicle lanes,
|
| Except, that protection/barrier, as you define it does
| not extend all the way through the intersection. At some
| point, the paths of a motorist and cyclist will cross
| (e.g., cyclist going straight while motorist is turning).
| If you have bicycle specific signals that regulate
| traffic in such a way that cyclists and motorists never
| go through the intersection at the same time, then you do
| have protection.
| TulliusCicero wrote:
| No. Protected bike lanes are safer, and with protected
| intersections, drivers can indeed see them coming. The US
| has even fewer protected intersections than lanes though,
| IIRC the first ones were only built in like 2014 or
| something.
|
| The Netherlands does this with protected lanes, often with
| a little bit of extra separation from cars, and it works
| great. They also do mixing, but only in areas that can
| accommodate low speeds.
| u801e wrote:
| > No. Protected bike lanes are safer
|
| Could you provide a citation supporting this assertion
| using data obtained in the US or Canada?
| [deleted]
| rob74 wrote:
| I live in Germany, where the tendency in the past ~50 years
| has been to add bike lanes to sidewalks. This may feel safer
| for "non-experienced riders", but has its own issues: instead
| of being on the driver's side of cars (who tend to look into
| the mirror before opening the door), you'll be on the
| passenger side, and the passengers don't have a mirror to
| look into. At intersections, drivers turning right
| (especially truck drivers) will tend to overlook you. Plus,
| you'll have pedestrians stepping in front of your bike, snow
| not being cleared in Winter and other annoyances. So, the
| grass may look greener on the other side, but not all that
| glitters is gold...
| TulliusCicero wrote:
| Germany is still far superior to the US here. IIRC bike
| mode share in Germany is like 10%, whereas in the US it's
| under 1%.
|
| I'm in Munich and agree that it's not Netherlands-level
| infrastructure, but it still blows basically anywhere in
| the US out of the water.
| redprince wrote:
| The legislation around bike lanes has changed considerably
| in Germany 20 years ago but the removal of existing cycling
| lanes which don't conform to the current law is taking a
| lot of time.
|
| In a nutshell: To construct a separate bike lane which
| cyclists are then obligated by law to use, is only
| permissible in rare circumstances where the road would be
| exceptionally dangerous for cyclists to use. In 2009
| improved standards for the construction of separated bike
| lanes were codified.
|
| Previously separate cycling lanes were constructed mostly
| to help cars move faster. Their quality (width, separation
| from foot traffic or parked cars, surface quality, etc.)
| was often horrendously bad and it is in no way enjoyable or
| expedient to use them.
|
| Additionally if separated from the road by a row of parked
| cars or a hedge drivers turning right at intersections have
| a hard time to spot cyclists. As a cyclist you always have
| to be on the lookout even if you would have the right of
| way because a driver just might not have seen you.
| clairity wrote:
| i advocate converting street parking into protected bike
| lanes. this has the advantage of also internalizing the cost
| of parking to car owners.
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