[HN Gopher] The great bicycle boom of 2020
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The great bicycle boom of 2020
        
       Author : dll
       Score  : 175 points
       Date   : 2021-01-11 09:21 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
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       | cmrdporcupine wrote:
       | Similar phenomenon has happened with Nordic (cross-country)
       | skiing and backcountry skiing gear this winter. Sudden spike in
       | interest, stores out of stock of equipment. I suspect most of
       | this is purely aspirational, both those activities require large
       | amounts of training & skill and access to particular
       | conditions/terrain that most people don't have. But it's still
       | interesting to watch.
        
         | geephroh wrote:
         | Can't wait to pick up an aspirational splitboard for cheap in
         | the spring!
        
           | cmrdporcupine wrote:
           | I have several aspirational backcountry & telemark setups
           | here now. They look very nice. But now I can't travel. Not
           | even regionally, really. Province-wide lockdown. And all lift
           | served skiing shutdown, too. Also no snow in local area, so
           | can't even hit that.
           | 
           | 2020 continues on sucking, right into 2021
        
       | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
       | There are (somewhat awkward, but English) statistics for Berlin
       | at
       | https://www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/verkehr/verkehrsplanung/radver...
       | (No way to link to configured maps, unfortunately).
       | 
       | Some numbers. These are total monthly counts of riders observed
       | at the same 17 measurement points:
       | 2019      2020              Sep    1,670,000 2,387,000. + 43 %
       | Dec      900,000 1,100,000. + 22 %
       | 
       | That's quite an increase year-over-year! The December number are
       | lower, but possibly more impressive considering it was rather
       | lockdown-ish and general mobility fell somewhat.
       | 
       | It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the weather.
       | 
       | It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's
       | somewhat close to a Giffen good
       | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good): People avoid public
       | transport and any single one might opt for a car instead. But
       | because road capacity is fixed (that's income in the analogy),
       | more of it needs to be devoted to the most efficient option, i.
       | e. bikes. So the city converted car to bike lanes, and car
       | traffic is actually down.
        
         | CaptArmchair wrote:
         | > It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the
         | weather.
         | 
         | That statistic only observes a change in behaviour. It doesn't
         | explain why it changed.
         | 
         | So, I think that claim can/should be falsified:
         | 
         | If there's an increase in bike usage, that's not because people
         | feel the weather - in it's own regard - is less of an
         | impediment to prefer biking over public transport. It's because
         | people choose enduring changing weather conditions over
         | accepting serious risk to their health for the sake of
         | convenience.
         | 
         | > It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's
         | somewhat close to a Giffen good
         | 
         | According to Wikipedia [1]
         | 
         | > There are three necessary preconditions for this situation to
         | arise:[citation needed] > the good in question must be an
         | inferior good, > there must be a lack of close substitute
         | goods, and > the goods must constitute a substantial percentage
         | of the buyer's income, but not such > a substantial percentage
         | of the buyer's income that none of the associated normal >
         | goods are consumed.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good
         | 
         | So, if the only other close alternate to bicycling was public
         | transportation, and other options (car) are because their costs
         | outweigh the benefits, then biking would be a Giffen good.
         | 
         | This can be explained either because the perceived costs of the
         | alternative - public transportation - became prohibitively
         | expensive in terms of an increased health risk and the
         | potentially associated costs that come with that risk (death,
         | disabilities, healthcare costs, income loss,...). Or because
         | people are now more willing to accept changing weather
         | conditions (per your claim).
         | 
         | Of course the only way to confirm this is to actually do a
         | survey and gauge the motivations that prompted a population to
         | change their behaviour.
         | 
         | As an anecdotal aside: I was a heavy user of public
         | transportation. I switched to going on foot, or taking my bike
         | to get around exactly because of the pandemic.
        
           | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
           | As to weather, I was commenting on the relative number
           | between summer and winter. In both years, they hold up better
           | than I would have thought, at around 50%. That would fit
           | with, for example, commuters using the bike year-round, with
           | the other half in summer consisting of tourism, generally
           | increased activity, joyrides, etc.
           | 
           | As to Giffen: people are shifting public transport -> car &
           | bike. The "budget" (road capacity) is fixed and close to full
           | utilisation. Increased demand with inelastic supply results
           | "inflation", which is the somewhat convoluted way the income
           | effect comes about. Aaaand... yeah, I can't quite remember
           | how I made the next part fit. so you may be right.
        
         | Steltek wrote:
         | It'd be interesting to see the corresponding public transit
         | numbers. In the US, I'm not optimistic about a bike revolution
         | lasting past covid. We've seen some new bike infra being
         | deployed in Boston but not much more than we'd be getting
         | anyway.
         | 
         | When you say car traffic, I presume congestion and not volume
         | of cars. I'm sure volume is down overall and I recall from
         | discussions about congestion pricing, even a 10% decrease in
         | volume can result in congestion completely dissipating. In
         | normal times, Induced Demand would lead to volume going back up
         | as transit users convert back to cars.
        
           | sremani wrote:
           | Most US Public Transportation agencies publish their KPIs.
           | 
           | DFW Metro: https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp
        
         | matsemann wrote:
         | I'm an avid biker, and commute by bike all year around even in
         | harsh nordic winter climate. But my numbers for 2020 are faaar
         | lower than usual. Normally I would bike to and from work 5
         | times a week, to swimming 3 times a week, to meet a friend for
         | jogging, to the mall, etc. But now all those things are closed,
         | so I use the bike for something maybe once a week instead.
         | 
         | So I hope and believe the numbers will be even greater for
         | 20211, actually. Multiple new people with bikes, and soon
         | people will move about as usual.
        
           | dutch3000 wrote:
           | same situation. my commuter bike has been hanging on the wall
           | since March. moving more into weekend, MTB rides with my
           | family. i find it very hard to get motivated to just ride a
           | loop for exercise. the utility of commuting into work really
           | motivated me for some reason.
        
           | Moru wrote:
           | I started up the old Turf app [1] for having some goal while
           | biking. It's a great way of finding new routes you haven't
           | seen before. Perfect for a short lunch-ride or in the night
           | after the kids are in bed. It's a bit low on zones in the
           | rest of the world but the nordic countries have a lot.
           | England recently got an upswing too so getting new zones the
           | whole time. And if you wish for zones or leave the app
           | running over the night, someone will notice you and add zones
           | for you. Ofcourse there are some crazy competing going on too
           | [2]. I'm not quite there yet...
           | 
           | [1] https://turfgame.com/
           | 
           | [2] https://turfvasterbotten.wordpress.com/2020/11/11/eat-
           | sleep-...
        
           | patrickk wrote:
           | My experience echoes yours. I love biking to work, especially
           | with an e-bike, and I normally did it five days a week, I
           | even started blogging about my experiences[1]. With the right
           | gear, cycling is really practical form of transport for me to
           | completely avoid unnecessary covid risks on public transport.
           | 
           | Now with lockdowns, I'm not biking nearly as much, the weekly
           | five-a-side football is closed, there's nothing open, so
           | little motivation to walk around town, and so on.
           | 
           | [1] https://ampedcycling.com/is-an-e-bike-actually-worth-it/
        
           | vesinisa wrote:
           | I have to second that this is exactly my situation as well.
           | Since my elementary school years some two decades ago, I
           | don't think I ever cycled so little in one year as in 2020.
           | Bicycle is my #1 transport but due to forced remote work and
           | generally low level of activity outside home I haven't had
           | the need to go much anywhere. (I won't even begin with the
           | massively detrimental effects on my fitness level.)
           | 
           | That being said, I sincerely hope people who took up cycling
           | during the pandemic will continue to do so 2021+ forward.
           | More cyclists = more planning focus on cycling = better &
           | safer cycling infrastructure.
        
           | btbuildem wrote:
           | Same here. But I've seen a ton of people on bikes this
           | summer, and by the looks of it a lot of them were new riders.
           | Bike stores were cleared out of inventory, and bike shops /
           | coops overloaded with customers. There's been a definite
           | surge in cycling where I live.
        
           | ska wrote:
           | It's not hard to imagine a situation where normally
           | avid/active cyclist are taking fewer trips (since they aren't
           | going to an office 5 days a week or whatever) but this loss
           | is dwarfed by normally occasional non-cycling people taking
           | more trips than average.
           | 
           | The latter group is likely two orders of magnitude larger
           | than the former, so the interesting thing will be if some
           | people become "converts" as it were, when the restrictions
           | are released. I can see arguments both for and against.
           | 
           | It would be interesting to see an analysis of this in a
           | couple of years, but comparing areas of long term disruption
           | (e.g. USA) vs. shorter (e.g. New Zealand) but that also has
           | all the usual problems of comparison.
        
           | outside1234 wrote:
           | I'm with you. One thing I try to do to combat that is to
           | "commute to my bedroom office via the garage" --> I go for a
           | short loop ride in the morning that replicates my commute
           | length.
           | 
           | I find that it really helps my energy levels and mental state
           | in the same way my commute used to. Obviously, it takes a bit
           | more discipline, but I actually look forward to it - a chance
           | to check in on the neighborhood etc.
           | 
           | Another hint is it do something new on the route every day.
           | It has grown to be quite a mental challenge to figure out a
           | street or alley (or way of hooking things up) that I haven't
           | taken before!
        
             | skeeter2020 wrote:
             | I do something similar, sometimes even riding to work and
             | back without ever going inside.
        
             | dmtroyer wrote:
             | this is a great idea! i really miss my bike commute.
        
             | ccozan wrote:
             | Interesting enough, my "commute" is now walking the dog
             | around the area, starting in the kitchen ( or whereever the
             | dog - a 2 year husky!, is waiting for me ) and ending up in
             | the office "room". The fresh air and the 20-35 mins walk is
             | really ideal to kick start my brain for the work. Ideally
             | the walk is without the phone, this helps me to really
             | disconnect.
        
             | anonfornoreason wrote:
             | I have heard this called a faux-mute, catchy name
        
           | analog31 wrote:
           | I read somewhere about the idea of a "fake commute" where you
           | go for a ride of equivalent duration every day. I did that
           | for a while, but have switched to taking a long walk every
           | morning. I've gotten the winter bike out, but have barely
           | used it this year.
        
           | ogre_codes wrote:
           | Similar here. I slacked for a while but when my fitness
           | started slipping made an effort to get out almost daily just
           | for a spin. Not training, just decompressing and stretching
           | the legs so when the weekend comes my buddies don't kill me
           | out out mountain bike ride.
        
           | CydeWeys wrote:
           | Similar situation here. I live in NYC and commuted year-round
           | to work via bicycle for 5 years straight ... and then COVID
           | happened, I haven't even been allowed into the office in 9
           | months, and my bicycling activity has correspondingly
           | plummeted off a cliff. I now do most of my biking on weekends
           | (for errands and such), which was far from true before March.
           | 
           | So, it's amazing how much the cycling numbers here have gone
           | up even with people like me staying home. I'm looking forward
           | to seeing how many people are cycling once it's all over.
           | Will people like me going back to cycling be added on top of
           | all the others who switched from subway to cycling, or will
           | they go back to subway?
        
             | low_common wrote:
             | I did the exact opposite as you. I was a commuter biker
             | before Covid and then once that stopped, I got Strava and
             | took my bike all over the five boroughs. I was biking 100
             | miles a week until December when it got a little too cold
             | for me. I added a gravel bike to my collection and took
             | that out of the city on weekends. 2020 was the year of the
             | bike!
        
               | CydeWeys wrote:
               | I've just been doing lots of running instead as exercise.
               | I don't actually enjoy a lot of the biking in the city
               | that much. It's too often too crowded and/or feels just a
               | little bit unsafe because of driver misbehavior. I've
               | done the whole 100 km ride up to Nyack and back on 9W
               | thing and ... those cars man.
        
               | low_common wrote:
               | Biking in the city is its own beast - no bones about
               | that.
        
         | jamil7 wrote:
         | I'm hoping that some of the pop-up bike lanes we had around the
         | city during the summer due to the lockdown will either return
         | this year or drive some decision making around bike
         | infrastructure in the city, although it always seems too little
         | to late and to move so slowly. With an increase in cyclists
         | last year we also sadly had an increase in cyclist deaths.
        
         | Mauricebranagh wrote:
         | Probably because people avoided public transport (busses and
         | trams) you need to see this data as well.
        
         | mswann wrote:
         | General mobility in Berlin 2020 compared to 2019 [0] according
         | to Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in:                 Sep  -5 % to
         | -13 %       Dec -20 % to -41 %  [incomplete data]
         | 
         | [0] https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/
        
       | thorin wrote:
       | Generally the UK leisure/outdoor industry has done pretty well
       | this year, lots of people buying bikes, kayaks, canoe, SUP, and
       | other sporting gear. They are definitely selling as many as they
       | can get. I guess any UK based manufacturers will have been able
       | to sell as many as they can make, maybe more local fabricators or
       | at least assemblers will be able to start up as a result.
       | 
       | Of course the 2nd hand market for all this stuff has been booming
       | too, physically as well as on fb/ebay. People have been paying
       | new prices for old goods. I could have made a bit of money buying
       | and selling kayaks this year!
        
       | jwr wrote:
       | Sadly, this seems not to be happening so much in less developed
       | countries in Central/Eastern Europe, notably Poland. My educated
       | guess is that it's because a car is still a status symbol here,
       | rather than a (very) costly tool for moving around.
       | 
       | Don't get me wrong, bike usage in Warsaw (where I am right now)
       | is increasing, but it isn't nearly the revolution other EU cities
       | have seen, and the support from authorities is lukewarm.
        
       | hadrien01 wrote:
       | Version without ads (works outside the UK for some reason):
       | https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/bespoke/made-on-earth/the-great...
        
       | IMTDb wrote:
       | It will be interesting to see how the bike usage will survive
       | post-pandemic. Anecdotal experience in my social circle: Many
       | people bought a bike just to keep active during the pandemic
       | measures. Many justified the "somewhat impulsive" spending by
       | hoping to use it for short commute/transportation needs in the
       | future. Most bike have been collecting dust in a garage for
       | several month, after the first three "bike excursion", the
       | conversion rate is close to 0%.
        
         | aqme28 wrote:
         | That's interesting. I've heard differently here in NYC. I
         | imagine the "stickiness" will vary based on things like local
         | infrastructure.
         | 
         | Also it's the winter right now-- a historically low biking
         | season. Your friends might pick it up again in the spring.
        
         | walrus01 wrote:
         | Bicycle enthusiasts I know predict that there will be a glut of
         | barely used, higher-end road bikes and components for sale in
         | 6-12 months from now, after people realize that their impulsive
         | $3500-6000 purchase was not the best idea ever. I'm not even
         | talking about really high end stuff, basically what you would
         | get if you walked into a Trek, Specialized or Giant dealer in
         | spring 2020 and bought a full carbon frame road bike with
         | mechanical 105 groupset on it. No Di2 or whatever.
        
           | midnightclubbed wrote:
           | While supply struggles to catch up with demand (and with
           | 'regular' order levels) the used bike market will command
           | high prices. Unless those people who spent $6k on a bike
           | 'need' the money they'll be looking for a premium price.
           | 
           | Once the market stabilizes the bike manufacturers and dealers
           | will go back to offering generous trade-in and 'last years
           | model' discounts and those impulse bikes will have to drop a
           | lot off their original price to look like a bargain. I
           | suspect it will look a lot like the US used car market where
           | a new car is cheaper than the same thing with 20k miles - by
           | the time you account for manufacturer promotional discounts
           | and dealer haggling.
           | 
           | Also I'm not sure I'd want to roll the dice on any used
           | carbon frameset or wheels. Are modern carbon frames less
           | brittle than I am led to believe?
        
           | low_common wrote:
           | I'm betting on this too. I'm already seeing some 2019-2020
           | barely-used $5000 bikes going for $2500-3000 on second hand
           | bike sites right now. Can't wait to scoop one in a few
           | months. I'm saving up for a carbon frame with Di2 myself
           | haha.
        
           | 8fGTBjZxBcHq wrote:
           | I live in a big city with a lot of tech workers and white
           | collar professionals so plenty of disposable income.
           | 
           | Just from talking to people out riding this summer it seems
           | like a lot of people bought bikes they could technically
           | afford but were way above their preferred price range simply
           | due to availability.
           | 
           | What people wanted was $500 bikes but there were only $2500
           | bikes so that's what they got. It's not like they're stupid
           | or even necessarily made a bad choice. They wanted a bike and
           | got the bike they could get.
        
             | midnightclubbed wrote:
             | I wonder if this will negatively impact mid-tier bike sales
             | in 2-3 years time? Some of those riders would have bought a
             | $500 bike, realized how much fun they were having and then
             | upgraded. A $2500 bike is unlikely to be upgraded for a
             | good while longer.
             | 
             | Not being able to dine out, take vacations, or go to
             | concerts has put a lot of disposable income in the hands of
             | a good chunk of the population this year.
        
               | 8fGTBjZxBcHq wrote:
               | I kinda doubt it. A lot of those were bought by people
               | who wouldn't have bought any bike this year or any year
               | without the pandemic. So they were definitely not going
               | to upgrade next year or whatever.
               | 
               | Some of those people are probably on bikes that don't fit
               | that great due to availability and they'll be looking for
               | better sizing as they get more into it.
               | 
               | And of course the majority probably won't get super into
               | cycling but again they weren't going to either way so
               | it's not really a "lost" sale.
               | 
               | Plus I mean it's kind of a running joke among bike people
               | that you don't really upgrade like it's a piece of
               | technology. You keep the old ones and just accumulate
               | more as you go.
        
       | gonzo41 wrote:
       | The most important part about being locked in my house for a
       | month was the hours of dog walking, and hours of exercise I got
       | to take. If, on the flip side of this pandemic we end up with
       | people who use their car less, then that's a good thing. For the
       | environment, for infrastructure, for other car drivers.
       | 
       | Bikes, and electric bikes make a lot of sense these days and they
       | are way more CC friendly than a cybertruck.
        
         | DebtDeflation wrote:
         | Totally agree. I just placed an order for an eFatbike last
         | week. I've spent the last 9 months hiking every possible hiking
         | trail within an hour or so of me. Now it's time to explore all
         | the MTB trails and fire roads. Getting outside on weekends is
         | the only thing that has kept me sane since the pandemic
         | started. I haven't been to my company office, client sites,
         | gym, restaurant, etc. since mid March. Other than to go grocery
         | shopping every other week and hiking on weekends, I rarely
         | leave the house at all.
        
       | MrBuddyCasino wrote:
       | Contrary to what people might think, 2020 has not been a good
       | year for bike dealers, especially small ones. The demand was
       | huge, but due to side-effects of the corona pandemic, bike
       | production in Asia was running on at most 80% capacity. Some
       | assembly lines were stopped for several weeks, and distancing
       | rules means reduced throughput. The problem: all orders with the
       | big manufacturers are placed a year in advance. This means that
       | if you were too late to place your orders in 2020, you will not
       | get any inventory for 2021. Any by "too late" I mean "the same
       | time as in 2019".
       | 
       | People want to buy, but stock is depleted and production reduced,
       | and many small dealers won't survive 2021 for lack of inventory.
        
         | KraftKacke wrote:
         | In my yard I can see about 6-10 bikes rotting away. Shop owners
         | could make upcycling a business.
         | 
         | Anyway, I think it's getting really cold the next months, so
         | demand will probably go down a bit.
        
           | kasey_junk wrote:
           | No they can't because they can't get parts. Even things like
           | patch kits were hard to find for a big chunk of the year.
        
         | trentnix wrote:
         | Former bike dealer here (I've written about it briefly for
         | anyone who might by be interested:
         | http://www.sciencerocketry.com/blog/great-work-and-new-
         | begin...). You are correct that dealers have been unable to
         | capitalize on the boom to realize big profits. There's plenty
         | of service business but the labor part isn't really profitable
         | (in my experience). The ability to sell parts with service can
         | be profitable, but the distributors and manufacturers don't
         | have any parts to sell.
         | 
         | One positive is that those dealers drowning in older, unsold
         | stock have been able to turn a lot of that into cash. That's
         | allowed a few of them to restore some financial health to their
         | business and get out from under some of their debt to vendors
         | and other creditors.
         | 
         | But even so, the bike business is so commoditized and the
         | supply chain is so lose that bike shops (and manufacturers as
         | well) have a pretty low ceiling of profitability. Even in the
         | midst of a boom, the economics of the bike business restrict it
         | to a lifestyle business at best. For some shops, this (likely
         | temporary) boom probably presents the best window of
         | opportunity to close their doors.
        
           | MrBuddyCasino wrote:
           | Looks like you had a sizeable well-run business, too bad it
           | still didn't work out. At least you tried! I always wonder
           | about those tiny inner-city bike shops and how it is possible
           | to make a living.
        
             | trentnix wrote:
             | We had our day! Business was okay, just not going to go far
             | beyond a lifestyle business. A lifestyle business that
             | takes away your weekends and part of every evening is a
             | grind, so it was just time to move along.
             | 
             | I very much learned the importance of business models and
             | product-market fit, though!
        
           | cycomanic wrote:
           | I see that you're from the US, I know that in many places in
           | Europe and Australia, the workshop has become the most
           | profitable part of the shops. In fact in Australia I know of
           | several workshop only bike "shops", essentially with the
           | raise of online sales lots of people just need their bikes
           | fixed.
           | 
           | I find it interesting though that you say the bike business
           | is commoditized. In particular there are several bike
           | manufacturers who have transitioned into live-style brands
           | (the big one being specialized). Their prices have gone
           | through the roof, while their manufacturing is all outsourced
           | to cheapest bidders in China. It's now common for top of the
           | line race bikes to cost >$10,000 while the frames for the
           | bikes cost them ~$300 shipped to the US (and the total bike
           | might be on the order of $1000-$2000 max). Mind you nothing
           | of that ends up with the dealers.
        
           | usrusr wrote:
           | Bike shops absolutely need to turn themselves into workshops,
           | in other words increase hourly rates until repairs become a
           | worthwhile business on their own. Even if only because
           | internet.
           | 
           | The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike work
           | can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People can
           | pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars to
           | sell beer at a similar price.
           | 
           | If shops insist on offering workshop services at a loss for
           | bikes bought at the establishment, they are free to offer
           | huge rebates as a hardware sales argument.
        
             | ogre_codes wrote:
             | > The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike
             | work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People
             | can pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars
             | to sell beer at a similar price.
             | 
             | In the town I used to live in, Performance bought out the
             | only decent bike shop in town so I got into the habit of
             | buying online because I could wrench better than the
             | Performance mechanics. When I moved up to Oregon there are
             | 5 good bike shops here in town and they all charge
             | reasonable rates so I use them whenever possible.
             | 
             | I do still buy online and install parts myself, not to save
             | a buck, but because it's more convenient than taking my
             | bike into the shop and leaving it there for a few days.
        
             | midnightclubbed wrote:
             | There is a value add from going to a bar. I'm paying for
             | the social experience.
             | 
             | A local bike shop repair has two benefits over doing it
             | myself - experience and convenience.
             | 
             | Unfortunately for bike shops the people who are most in
             | need of their experience are those who are newer to riding
             | (or dusting off a 20 year old unridden bike). When the
             | workshop labour charge is approaching the perceived worth
             | of a bike the customer is not going to want to use those
             | services (more likely to dump the bike and buy a new one
             | from a sporting goods store or Walmart).
             | 
             | People who ride regularly are more likely to have bikes
             | where the cost of a repair is a small fraction of the
             | bike's worth (personal or actual) but they are also more
             | likely to have the tools and experience to do the work
             | themselves.
             | 
             | I go back into mtb riding 2 years ago and upgraded to a
             | mid-range full suspension bike at the end of 2019. While I
             | was familiar with basic bike maintenance I didn't know what
             | I was doing with some of the newer bike tech. When my bike
             | needed a service in the summer I tried to use my local bike
             | store - they needed my bike for a month in order to get the
             | work done (backed up due to Covid demand).
             | 
             | Rather than miss all those rides I bought the tools and
             | figured how to do the jobs myself. Now I have the tools I
             | can do those jobs again for almost no outlay (and wrenching
             | is therapeutic).
        
               | MrFantastic wrote:
               | I do a lot of my own bike repairs. When I take it to the
               | local shop, they can fix it better than I can. When it's
               | slow my local shop will show me how to do some tips on
               | some of the different repairs. I replaced all the cables
               | and shifters on my bike and I had a hard time getting the
               | derailleur adjustments correct.
               | 
               | I had to replace some spokes, that would have taken me a
               | while to do on my own and some specialized equipment I
               | won't need again for a decade.
        
               | matsemann wrote:
               | Lol yeah, I tried building my own wheel, and getting it
               | true was such an art that I ended up writing my thesis
               | about bicycle spokes...
        
             | trentnix wrote:
             | Some in the bike industry have been asking for that very
             | thing for years. The most common answer is, "you first".
        
               | usrusr wrote:
               | I really don't get what they would be missing though:
               | "foreign" (e.g. internet) brands would usually be
               | rejected before that price hike anyways (unless workshop
               | capacity is _desperately_ idle) and preferred customers
               | (qualified by bike purchase) could still be offered
               | arbitrary service discounts. Is it really just the old
               | bait and switch of offering to service a clunker for the
               | price of a hamburger and then suddenly realizing that the
               | bike is impossible to salvage if the customer happens to
               | be not utterly wrong size for that unloved bike that has
               | been clogging inventory for three years?
        
               | trentnix wrote:
               | No bait and switch, and my experiences aren't from the
               | boom period so take my commentary with a grain of salt.
               | What I can tell you is that there is an immense amount of
               | pressure from competitors and from customers to keep
               | service prices low. So the prospect of raising service
               | prices is challenging when your customers are spoiled
               | with cheap labor.
               | 
               | Also, servicing a lower-end bike ends up meaning the
               | service is a large percentage of the original cost. So
               | the prospect of paying, say, $150 for a tune-up, cables,
               | and a new chain on a $400 bike _feels_ excessive. But if
               | you do it for any cheaper than that, you are either
               | compromising the quality of your work or compromising
               | your ability to turn a profit.
        
               | usrusr wrote:
               | Sure, a "boutique bike service station" certainly
               | wouldn't attract your typical Wal-Mart bike owner. But
               | those bikes won't be served by the bike shop that runs
               | the workshop at a loss for his loyal bike buyers either.
               | 
               | That part of the market is usually served, quite well
               | actually for both sides, by a shop that is one third
               | preowned bikes, one third budget parts and one third
               | highschool job repairs (sometimes they also rent out the
               | preowned). Lifesavers for my theft-immune three speed
               | (they'll happily take on daring salvage operations nobidy
               | else would even attempt), but I surely no place were I'd
               | leave one of my Campag steeds even for just a tire
               | inflation.
        
             | Mauricebranagh wrote:
             | You know On Licenses ( Pubs/Bars) pay massive amounts of
             | tax compared to Off Licences (Supermarkets / Bodgegas)
        
             | klyrs wrote:
             | > The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike
             | work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that.
             | 
             | If the shop charges more than I value my time, than I won't
             | go to the shop except to buy parts and tools to fix my bike
             | with. Not sure why you think DIY needs to die. This is a
             | supply/demand problem and ease of repair will depress
             | prices.
             | 
             | Where the workshop model might work is the fabrication of
             | parts. The supply chain has tanked; I'd be willing to pay
             | double on that chainring I busted and nobody can stock.
        
         | whalesalad wrote:
         | I emailed 7 shops in my state of Michigan recently about a fat
         | bike. All but one emailed me back with a sad face and said
         | everyone is screwed until summer due to no supply.
         | 
         | I got really lucky and found one a 2 hour drive away. Now it's
         | an appreciating asset in my garage if you can believe it. I
         | ride it of course but ever have I seen this kind of demand for
         | bikes in my entire life.
         | 
         | I hope this is going to serve as a global correction on our
         | need to be more self sufficient. I've been thinking a lot
         | recently about how we took two steps forward with globalization
         | and tech and we probably need to take one step back. Pretty
         | much every bike and bike part is made in Taiwan or China. I'd
         | love to have a made in the USA bike just as much as I'd imagine
         | folks in the UK, South America, etc... feel the same.
        
           | UI_at_80x24 wrote:
           | Look into the niche markets then. Like recumbents.
           | 
           | http://longbikes.com located in Colorado
           | https://www.terratrike.com located in Michigan
           | 
           | There are atleast 3 others I can think of off the top of my
           | head.
           | 
           | If you are looking for "A Generic Bicycle at Walmart prices",
           | then yes you are SOL.
        
           | busterarm wrote:
           | You got emails back!?
           | 
           | Here, in NYC of all places, I have 0 returned emails and even
           | having cast a wider net.
           | 
           | Of course there's plenty of cheap e-bikes with junky
           | components.
        
             | whalesalad wrote:
             | It took a _while_ for some of them. I actually just got one
             | reply yesterday and this all happened before Xmas.
        
               | busterarm wrote:
               | My problem is mainly with looking for specific
               | components.
               | 
               | I want a decent commuter with belt drive and higher end
               | components. Disc brakes.
               | 
               | I can get the cheap versions of this all day but not
               | really the best stuff unless I possibly order it built by
               | Maxx or get a Riese & Muller e-bike. Still looks like
               | waiting until at least April though.
        
               | Filligree wrote:
               | I got the Riese & Muller, and I don't regret it. Just
               | make sure you get the high-speed version. 25 km/h is
               | _not_ very fast.
        
               | whalesalad wrote:
               | If you are comfortable/familiar with wrenching - it is
               | often cheaper to build a bike yourself. It can be a pain
               | - but in this situation I think it is the next best
               | option.
               | 
               | One of the bike shops I had contacted suggested it, since
               | a lot of shops around the country have a good stock of
               | parts and you can usually find a nice used frameset
               | online.
        
               | busterarm wrote:
               | It is almost never cheaper to build a bike yourself.
               | Labor cost is not a factor. Completes are 99% built by
               | the time they get to a store for selling.
               | 
               | Complete bikes are a highly competitive market whereas
               | bike parts are mostly not.
               | 
               | You will get much more mileage for your dollars buying
               | completes that have exactly what you want or with some
               | small delta of upgrades.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | There's also a problem with component availability. If
               | you just want a fixie or a frankenbike it's okay but for
               | anything else be prepared to wait and compromise. I just
               | managed to order the last components I need for the bike
               | I'm building this year. I had to compromise a bit, mix
               | hubs drivetrain components from several Shimano lineups,
               | past and current. The frame was preordered and paid in
               | full in June, it should have arrived in August, finally
               | got it in October.
        
               | busterarm wrote:
               | Yes, several of the things that I want are unobtainium at
               | the moment, but do come in some completes.
        
             | jrockway wrote:
             | What sort of bike are you looking for? I had these folks
             | build me a custom bike a few years ago:
             | https://www.acmebicycleco.com/ and I loved every part of
             | dealing with them.
             | 
             | They also did some custom work on my commuting bike (which
             | involves quite a hodgepodge of fender/brake compromises)
             | which was 10x better than I could do myself.
        
         | usrusr wrote:
         | But the reduced availability surely enabled dealers to sell a
         | far bigger fraction (likely very close to all!) of what they
         | sold at list price or reasonably close, whereas a typical
         | season will see a considerable part of inventory being pushed
         | out at wild discounts. The entire pricing structure is built
         | for a high margin/high discount pattern. I wouldn't be
         | surprised if some would be able to earn more than usually even
         | on less than half the inventory, and the upstream availability
         | surely didn't collapse that hard.
        
         | ogre_codes wrote:
         | In a moment of inspired genius, one of the local bike shop
         | owners stuffed a big chunk of savings into bike inventory back
         | in March/ April. He had bikes stuffed into every corner of the
         | shop and was pretty much the only shop with decent inventory
         | for most of the year.
         | 
         | But now even his inventory is bare. Maybe I should sell one of
         | my bikes to help relieve the pressure.
         | 
         | Hmm
         | 
         | Nah.
        
         | Triv888 wrote:
         | Around here, even Walmart has no bicycle inventory... had to go
         | to the flea market and buy a used one.
        
         | walrus01 wrote:
         | For some news on this from the perspective of the individual
         | bicycle retail stores, there's a vertical/trade journal for
         | them:
         | 
         | https://www.bicycleretailer.com/
         | 
         | If you go through the past news articles there, lots of info
         | about import data, sales boom and sell out of in stock
         | inventory during 2020, etc.
        
         | fredley wrote:
         | By extension: it seems to have been a _great_ year for bike
         | thieves, in the UK at least. Anecdotally, bike theft is through
         | the roof.
        
           | KraftKacke wrote:
           | Business idea: Make something like the iPhone's snitching low
           | power bluetooth thingy for bikes. I am sure bike owners will
           | glad run an app which monitors the surrounding for stolen
           | bluetooth beacons. Make it work so it can be barricaded in
           | the seat tube or integrated into the frame, not easily
           | removed or destroyed. Make stealing cheap bikes risky and
           | troublesome. Nothing will protect a 5k$ sports bike.
        
             | fredley wrote:
             | > not easily removed or destroyed
             | 
             | So like a lock? It's an arms race, and if these things did
             | really take off, bike thieves would find a way to defeat
             | them (easy enough to detect if a bike has one after all).
             | 
             | Also it's not as if many many iPhones aren't being swiped
             | on the streets of London either.
        
               | CydeWeys wrote:
               | No, a lock is easy to remove/destroy. It's at most a
               | minute with the right tool (angle grinder), and the bike
               | itself is left unaffected.
               | 
               | A tracking device though would be embedded inside the
               | frame itself, and thus not be removable without cutting
               | up (and thus likely destroying) the frame. The frame is
               | the single-most valuable component on a bike.
        
               | Someone wrote:
               | I'm not that knowledgeable about what materials can be
               | used to construct one, but doesn't "embedded into the
               | frame" mean "embedded in a Faraday cage"? Or could one
               | use the frame as an antenna?
        
               | CydeWeys wrote:
               | Yes, you'd need to handle the antenna issue. As far as
               | engineering problems go though that's not a particularly
               | hard challenge. Phones and laptops with metal cases have
               | no problem with this despite a lack of external antennas.
        
               | fizx wrote:
               | Bikes expensive enough to have a tracking device will
               | largely be carbon fiber.
        
               | usrusr wrote:
               | > The frame is the single-most valuable component on a
               | bike.
               | 
               | Depends. And parts can be fenced with much less risk than
               | entire bikes. I doubt that trackers provide any actual
               | safety improvement, neither in the small (what will _you_
               | do with the information you might get?) nor in the big
               | (will trackers eventually reduce the number of thieves?).
               | 
               | What might help, I think, are serial number registries.
               | Rohloff hub serials can be registered by owners and
               | checked by would-be buyers, which I think does have some
               | of the desired effect of making those bikes less
               | attractive to thieves.
        
             | matsemann wrote:
             | My insurance on the bike is lower if I use a
             | https://bikefinder.com/en/ which is a device in the bike
             | that tracks it (gps).
        
             | secfirstmd wrote:
             | FYI an alternative is you can get tiny GPS trackers about
             | the size of the top of your thumb for about the same price
             | as the various Bluetooth LE options (about 20 Euros on
             | Alibaba. Stick a SIM in them and put it on the bike,
             | underneath the seat hidden etc and they are pretty decent,
             | can last up to two weeks without recharging. Plus they are
             | more likely to work and much much easier to track down your
             | bike as you can use various apps to track in real time.
        
               | avn2109 wrote:
               | What do I type into google to buy this? A bit of
               | searching has not turned up anything similar to what you
               | describe :( Lots of ads for Tile and similar (aka not GPS
               | trackers).
        
               | patrickk wrote:
               | I wrote about bike GPS trackers here:
               | https://ampedcycling.com/do-electric-bikes-have-gps-
               | trackers...
               | 
               | The Guardian bike tracker is one potential option. I
               | would caution against a generic bluetooth tracker, I am
               | not sure if you can integrate it with a SIM card easily.
        
               | secfirstmd wrote:
               | There's loads out there. For example on Aliexpress
               | 
               | https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005001742170443.html?spm
               | =a2...
        
         | mauvehaus wrote:
         | It might be a lousy year for sales, but it should be an
         | absolutely killer year for repair and tuneup work. The required
         | bits for most tuneups are limited to lube, tubes, cable, and
         | housing.
         | 
         | Those four things will get you a long way with most bikes that
         | "ran when parked" 10-20 years ago. There is a vast number of
         | bikes in the US that meet basically that description.
         | 
         | Source: was a volunteer bike mechanic at the Ohio City Bike Co-
         | op. They got a lot of donations in that were at most 60 minutes
         | of work from being rideable.
         | 
         | https://ohiocitycycles.org/
        
           | CydeWeys wrote:
           | Brake pads aren't on that list? That's the other obvious
           | consumable I can think of.
           | 
           | And for what it's worth my mechanic ran low on chains and
           | sprockets at some point. I don't know if that was just him or
           | larger supply chain issues though.
        
             | mauvehaus wrote:
             | Brake pads wear out after thousands of miles. Most of the
             | neglected bikes in the US got parked long before they
             | accumulated enough miles to wear out brake pads. I've got
             | maybe 4000 miles of mostly urban commuting (i.e. much
             | harder on brake pads than rides in the country) on my nice
             | road bike and I haven't changed them yet. For casual
             | cyclists, brake pads are a lifetime part.
             | 
             | Possible exception: glazed brake pads, but still relatively
             | uncommon. Cables and housing are much bigger wear items for
             | most bikes. Mostly because they aren't stainless at the low
             | end and rust.
             | 
             | Chains will also rust, but it's pretty hard to end up with
             | an unsalvageable chain unless a bike has been left outside
             | for a long time. Source: left my beater road bike outside
             | at the curb for 9 years in Boston, including winters. Lubed
             | the chain a couple times a year. It still runs.
        
               | midnightclubbed wrote:
               | Maybe on road bikes but MTB brake pads are definitely a
               | non lifetime part. Replaced my rear pads at the weekend,
               | maybe 0.2mm remaining after around 800 miles or so of
               | riding.
               | 
               | Getting oil on pads is also fairly easy to (accidentally)
               | do. Learnt to be less liberal with the spray oil the hard
               | way!
               | 
               | Unfortunately for bike shops replacing disk brake pads is
               | trivial. Bleeding the Hydraulic system not so much, if it
               | wasn't for the stopping power I'd trade back to brake
               | cables any day.
        
         | Manfred wrote:
         | Do you mean they only got 80% of what they ordered in 2019 for
         | 2020?
        
           | MrBuddyCasino wrote:
           | No, 2020 is unaffected. 2021 will be problematic.
        
         | enriquto wrote:
         | So true. I went to a local bike shop in november and they had
         | no bikes to sell. The guy, almost in tears, desperately showed
         | me the waiting list on the provider website: next bikes
         | expected by April 2021. He had sold all his stock a couple of
         | months before, and had a lot of people willing to buy him
         | bikes, yet he had to close the shop at the end.
        
         | ubermonkey wrote:
         | "Contrary to what people might think, 2020 has not been a good
         | year for bike dealers, especially small ones. "
         | 
         | Well, that depends on who you ask.
         | 
         | Several local stores here saw it coming, and places enormous
         | orders with their distributors when there was still inventory.
         | My local did WELL -- they were aggressive and basically maxed
         | their credit buying bikes from $400 to about $1200 (ie the
         | sweet spot for casual riders), and sold every single one they
         | could get their hands on.
         | 
         | They're now the go-to joint in inner Houston for e-bikes, too.
         | 
         | So there was a play to be made, and a way to surf this thing,
         | but I also wouldn't be surprised to learn that this shop in
         | particular was one of the few to really do it right.
        
           | jacurtis wrote:
           | Well my experience talking to all the local bike shops in my
           | area is that they actually have less inventory to sell than
           | previous years, compounded with the problem of increased
           | demand.
           | 
           | My local shop that is a Trek Dealer said last October that
           | they were only just starting to get the bikes that they
           | ordered back in February (pre-pandemic). Meaning that their
           | standard inventory for summer never arrived. I just talked to
           | this shop again this weekend because I was in there for ski
           | service (like many bike shops in the Rocky Mountains, they
           | are ski shops in the winter and bike shops in the summer),
           | and the guy showed me their list of pending orders. They are
           | expecting an order of bikes from Trek by the end of January
           | that will complete the order they placed LAST APRIL. So at
           | least for Trek, that is how far behind they are.
           | 
           | I have also visited 2 different dealers that sell Specialized
           | ("Specialized" is the brand name). One of them (the smaller
           | one) told me that they have $100,000 worth of bikes and
           | accessories on order and have been waiting for over 5 months
           | on them to arrive with no update on any changes.
           | 
           | The other Specialized Dealer is a big dealer in this area and
           | they only have one bike in stock, a Peter Sagan edition Race
           | Bike priced around $10k and 2 child sized bikes. They said
           | they are still waiting for their orders from April to arrive.
           | 
           | One good sign was from a local shop that sells Santa Cruz
           | Mountain Bikes. They apparently are only about 2 months
           | behind. But that shop has still struggled to keep bikes in
           | stock. So their demo fleet for people to take up to the ski
           | resort (for downhill mountain biking) last summer was all
           | previous model-year bikes because they couldn't set aside
           | bikes for their demo fleet because they were selling as fast
           | as they arrived. In fact he told me that they have been
           | selling bikes off a waiting list for people 4-5 states away
           | who are driving 12-24 straight hours to pick up bikes because
           | this shop has been able to keep some in stock.
        
             | ubermonkey wrote:
             | Dealers for Trek and Specialized have not done as well
             | here. I think this MAY be because those dealers are mostly
             | all-in on whichever brand they carry. The shop I bought my
             | Specialized Roubaix from in 2014, for example, HAS a very
             | small number of non-Specialized bikes (maybe 4-6 AllCity
             | plus a couple Moots), but the rest of the shop is ALL
             | SPECIALIZED. You know what folks say about egg/basket
             | redundancy.
             | 
             | The shop I mentioned that was clever and has done well as a
             | result isn't a dealer for either. They carry BMC, Cervelo,
             | Santa Cruz, Salsa, and some others, and they've managed to
             | stay busy and stocked all year.
        
             | cycomanic wrote:
             | One of the aspects that really exacerbated the situation
             | for road bikes was that Shimano (by far the biggest
             | component manufacturer) was expected to release their new
             | top of the line group-set this year.
             | 
             | Because they typically introduce new technology which is
             | somewhat incompatible with previous generations (they were
             | expected to go to 2x12 speed like the two other
             | manufacturers), everyone was holding off on orders and the
             | end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
             | 
             | The manufacturers also expected a low volume year, hence
             | they did not order that many components and frames either,
             | so everyone was caught off-guard when the pandemic hit.
        
         | FreshFries wrote:
         | Here in Switzerland it has been a good yeah however. During the
         | Lockdown the sales have increased by 25%. People use their
         | bikes more too. And the both the in and export of e-bikes has
         | increased.
         | 
         | Sorry, all in German:
         | 
         | https://bellevue.nzz.ch/reisen-entdecken/velo-boom-in-der-sc...
         | 
         | https://www.velosuisse.ch/e-bike-markt-waechst-weiter-mit-gr...
        
           | disabled wrote:
           | True. In Switzerland, it is expensive to even hold a driver's
           | license. Driving in general is expensive.
           | 
           | While public transportation is phenomenal, clean, and can be
           | relied on, it's a pandemic. So, it makes sense that people
           | are riding their bikes.
        
           | MrBuddyCasino wrote:
           | The year 2020 was good in terms of sales. But its effects in
           | 2021 will lead to vendor consolidation.
        
         | learnstats2 wrote:
         | Do bike dealers not also make money from increased demand for
         | services?
        
           | dfgdghdf wrote:
           | Servicing (except perhaps puncture repairs) is a very low
           | margin business. This is why online retail has hurt the bike
           | industry so hard: the servicing was subsidized by bike and
           | component sales. Now, local bike shops are expected to
           | service bikes purchased online.
        
           | notesinthefield wrote:
           | Ive experience with three shops, given the lowish margins,
           | transaction costs of stock and sometimes reduction in
           | mechanics - its not nearly enough to make up the deficit. The
           | most lucrative services, fittings, are not something every
           | shop does or is equipped for. Maintenance is relatively cheap
           | and 2020 waiting lists were sometimes months long given the
           | spike in riders forcing many to DIY. Many will let you order
           | parts through the shop but prices are almost always more
           | expensive than going to the vendor site.
        
           | tonyedgecombe wrote:
           | Supplies of spare parts have been constrained as well. It
           | took two months to get some replacement tyres for my bike.
        
         | Symbiote wrote:
         | There's probably a gap in the market for bike shops in Denmark
         | (and the Netherlands too). Everyone here already owns at least
         | one bicycle, so there was no need to purchase another. The
         | shops still have plenty of stock, and a quick look a the
         | website shows 10-15% "January" discounts.
         | 
         | However, none of the four online shops I tried deliver outside
         | Denmark.
        
       | ivan1783 wrote:
       | Interesting, I have heard this already many times from bike shop
       | owners here in Germany but in my personal experience I have not
       | seen/felt more crowded bike lanes (and I ride a lot). Purely
       | anecdotal, however.
        
         | lorenzfx wrote:
         | I observed much more crowded bike lanes (in Hamburg),
         | especially during the morning commute between 8 and 9. There
         | were bicycle traffic jams in places where none were last year.
         | 
         | Also, I observed lots and lots of blue-tired rented bicycles
         | during the summer, though their numbers seems to have reduced a
         | lot since the weather got wet and cold.
        
           | Symbiote wrote:
           | The blue-tyred bikes are long-term rental bikes from
           | https://swapfiets.com . They're a good deal for someone who
           | is only living somewhere for ~6 months or less.
        
       | exabrial wrote:
       | Usually big cities try things like bicycle lanes. This has
       | moderate success for brave bicycle riders but probably is not a
       | safe for less brave riders around cars that aren't used to
       | bicycles.
       | 
       | I keep trying to point my local government, since they've already
       | taken my money anyway, towards the Bentonville model. Instead of
       | building bike lanes, build single track that runs through the
       | town. This has been incredibly successful for them. Instead of
       | building sidewalks they build dirt paths.
       | 
       | The other option is streamway buffer trails which completely
       | remove bikes from traffic and provide shortcuts without red
       | lights through the city.
        
         | zip1234 wrote:
         | Not all bike lanes are created equal. Paint does not protect
         | riders. Plastic cones do not protect riders. Car drivers can
         | still veer into a bike lane that is delineated in this manner
         | if they are not paying attention. Actual protected bike lanes
         | that have concrete or steel barriers do protect those on bikes.
        
           | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
           | Protected lanes set up cyclists to get t-boned by turning
           | drivers. In the US these are effectively glorified sidewalks
           | where every road and driveway crossing is a death trap.
        
             | TulliusCicero wrote:
             | That's why you also have protected intersections.
             | 
             | This is how they do it in the Netherlands, world leader in
             | safe biking for everyone.
        
             | Muximize wrote:
             | Protected lanes should be accompanied by protected
             | intersections as well: https://youtu.be/FlApbxLz6pA
        
         | CydeWeys wrote:
         | The real problem in the US is that we aren't building protected
         | bike lanes networks that treat riders as first-class users like
         | the Netherlands does. Most of our "bike lanes" are nothing more
         | than narrowed painted lanes on the road sandwiched between fast
         | moving traffic and parked cars (with potentially opening
         | doors). Non-experienced cyclists will rightfully not feel safe
         | using these lanes because they _aren 't_ safe. But build better
         | infrastructure and even children can use it safely.
        
           | u801e wrote:
           | The only good infrastructure makes use of existing rail right
           | of way or paths near rivers. If they provide a way to get to
           | various destinations around town or a fast way to travel
           | between towns, then they'll be used and prove useful.
           | 
           | Protected bicycle lanes is a misnomer. Protected, in traffic
           | engineering terms, refers to something like a protected
           | traffic light phase where one stream of traffic has exclusive
           | access to the intersection (e.g., a protected left turn
           | arrow).
           | 
           | The barrier separated lanes reduce the visibility of cyclists
           | from the motorists' point of view and vice versa. When both
           | get to an intersecton and the motorist needs to turn right,
           | it's not possible for them to see the cyclist well enough in
           | advance to actually yield to them. The same thing happens to
           | cyclists because they can't easily see approaching traffic
           | due to visual obstructions.
           | 
           | The safest solution is to have cyclists follow the same rules
           | of the road that all other vehicle operators follow and allow
           | cyclists full use of the lane they're in. That is, get rid of
           | laws that require cyclists to ride as far right as
           | practicable regardless of the presence of marked lanes or use
           | a bike lane (e.g.,
           | https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/VAT/1234).
        
             | Muximize wrote:
             | Or you could build protected intersections, as is standard
             | in the Netherlands: https://youtu.be/FlApbxLz6pA
        
               | u801e wrote:
               | Drivers in the US are trained to yield to traffic before
               | entering an intersection. They don't typically yield to
               | traffic when exiting one. For pedestrians moving at
               | walking pace, it's possible for them to see the
               | pedestrian about to cross and yield since the pedestrian
               | will be very close to the intersection.
               | 
               | A cyclist 20 to 30 feet away will not be in view of the
               | motorist who is in the process of accelerating as they
               | exit the intersection.
               | 
               | Making intersecton navigation more complex makes it more
               | likely that someone will make a mistake.
        
               | Muximize wrote:
               | There's usually no need to yield, traffic signals
               | regulate that. The idea here is to create a more
               | forgiving environment where making mistakes is less
               | likely and less harmful. Thousands of these intersections
               | have been build, here's some examples and some US context
               | and research:
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/5HDN9fUlqU8
               | 
               | http://www.protectedintersection.com
               | 
               | https://altago.com/wp-content/uploads/Evolution-of-the-
               | Prote...
        
               | u801e wrote:
               | > There's usually no need to yield, traffic signals
               | regulate that
               | 
               | Yet, the one example of a protected intersection I'm
               | aware of in the US in Salt Lake City Utah[1] doesn't have
               | bicycle specific traffic signals that regulate turning
               | movements. They rely on motorists yielding to cyclists,
               | or cyclists yielding to motorists. This causes problems
               | when cyclists believe they have pedestrian style right-
               | of-way when there's no law supporting that notion and
               | it's not possible to see a cyclist moving at 20 to 30
               | feet per second in time to yield to them as they're about
               | to cross the path of the motorist.
               | 
               | [1] https://twitter.com/i/status/654674368597852161
        
               | TulliusCicero wrote:
               | This kind of attitude is amazing to me.
               | 
               | American bike infra design and culture has been a failure
               | on nearly every level, and yet you're rejecting the
               | lessons from the world leader.
               | 
               | Do you really think American drivers wouldn't eventually
               | adapt to better infrastructure? Even the Dutch had to
               | learn at some point.
        
               | u801e wrote:
               | > American bike infra design and culture has been a
               | failure on nearly every level
               | 
               | In what way? I live in a town with a major university and
               | there are plenty of cyclists on the roads leading to and
               | from campus as well as on campus itself. This is the case
               | at many universities I've been to.
               | 
               | Also, as far as I'm aware, there are no protected bike
               | lane installations anywhere around campus or in town, but
               | we do have a nice rail trail.
        
             | CydeWeys wrote:
             | You're over-thinking it. "Protected" just means physical
             | protection is provided. E.g. right now a lot of the
             | supposedly separated bike lanes near me in Manhattan aren't
             | protected in any meaningful way, so you often see cars
             | illegally parked in them and sometimes even driving in them
             | (!). Protection is as simple as physical curbs and other
             | barriers that prevent vehicles from being able to get into
             | the bike lanes. That's protection. Intersections actually
             | do tend to be protected the most because they have started
             | building some curbs at corners as pedestrian refuges
             | between the bike and vehicle lanes, which have the side-
             | effect of keeping cars out.
        
               | u801e wrote:
               | > You're over-thinking it. "Protected" just means
               | physical protection is provided.
               | 
               | I'm using the standard definition of protected (as
               | opposed to permissive) as used in the traffic engineering
               | profession. Besides, I've heard the term protected used
               | for lanes where flexi bollards are placed between the
               | general purpose lane and bike lane. This in no way is
               | going to provide any notion of protection and there's no
               | intersection management separating traffic flow in terms
               | of time slices (as would be done using a traffic signal).
               | 
               | > Protection is as simple as physical curbs and other
               | barriers that prevent vehicles from being able to get
               | into the bike lanes. That's protection. Intersections
               | actually do tend to be protected the most because they
               | have started building some curbs at corners as pedestrian
               | refuges between the bike and vehicle lanes,
               | 
               | Except, that protection/barrier, as you define it does
               | not extend all the way through the intersection. At some
               | point, the paths of a motorist and cyclist will cross
               | (e.g., cyclist going straight while motorist is turning).
               | If you have bicycle specific signals that regulate
               | traffic in such a way that cyclists and motorists never
               | go through the intersection at the same time, then you do
               | have protection.
        
             | TulliusCicero wrote:
             | No. Protected bike lanes are safer, and with protected
             | intersections, drivers can indeed see them coming. The US
             | has even fewer protected intersections than lanes though,
             | IIRC the first ones were only built in like 2014 or
             | something.
             | 
             | The Netherlands does this with protected lanes, often with
             | a little bit of extra separation from cars, and it works
             | great. They also do mixing, but only in areas that can
             | accommodate low speeds.
        
               | u801e wrote:
               | > No. Protected bike lanes are safer
               | 
               | Could you provide a citation supporting this assertion
               | using data obtained in the US or Canada?
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | rob74 wrote:
           | I live in Germany, where the tendency in the past ~50 years
           | has been to add bike lanes to sidewalks. This may feel safer
           | for "non-experienced riders", but has its own issues: instead
           | of being on the driver's side of cars (who tend to look into
           | the mirror before opening the door), you'll be on the
           | passenger side, and the passengers don't have a mirror to
           | look into. At intersections, drivers turning right
           | (especially truck drivers) will tend to overlook you. Plus,
           | you'll have pedestrians stepping in front of your bike, snow
           | not being cleared in Winter and other annoyances. So, the
           | grass may look greener on the other side, but not all that
           | glitters is gold...
        
             | TulliusCicero wrote:
             | Germany is still far superior to the US here. IIRC bike
             | mode share in Germany is like 10%, whereas in the US it's
             | under 1%.
             | 
             | I'm in Munich and agree that it's not Netherlands-level
             | infrastructure, but it still blows basically anywhere in
             | the US out of the water.
        
             | redprince wrote:
             | The legislation around bike lanes has changed considerably
             | in Germany 20 years ago but the removal of existing cycling
             | lanes which don't conform to the current law is taking a
             | lot of time.
             | 
             | In a nutshell: To construct a separate bike lane which
             | cyclists are then obligated by law to use, is only
             | permissible in rare circumstances where the road would be
             | exceptionally dangerous for cyclists to use. In 2009
             | improved standards for the construction of separated bike
             | lanes were codified.
             | 
             | Previously separate cycling lanes were constructed mostly
             | to help cars move faster. Their quality (width, separation
             | from foot traffic or parked cars, surface quality, etc.)
             | was often horrendously bad and it is in no way enjoyable or
             | expedient to use them.
             | 
             | Additionally if separated from the road by a row of parked
             | cars or a hedge drivers turning right at intersections have
             | a hard time to spot cyclists. As a cyclist you always have
             | to be on the lookout even if you would have the right of
             | way because a driver just might not have seen you.
        
           | clairity wrote:
           | i advocate converting street parking into protected bike
           | lanes. this has the advantage of also internalizing the cost
           | of parking to car owners.
        
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