[HN Gopher] When Big Brands Stopped Spending on Digital Ads, Not...
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       When Big Brands Stopped Spending on Digital Ads, Nothing Happened.
       Why?
        
       Author : ZeljkoS
       Score  : 108 points
       Date   : 2021-01-03 09:29 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.forbes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.forbes.com)
        
       | soared wrote:
       | Augustine fou is basically a troll in r/adops.
        
         | doopy1 wrote:
         | To some extent yes, but I think he's better than a troll,
         | because IMO there is value in what he's doing, despite the
         | hyperbole.
        
       | rainyMammoth wrote:
       | I always saw ads as a zero sum game. We all have limited dollars
       | and attention. When you advertise, you might slightly change the
       | allocation of attention and dollar to your product.
       | 
       | When everyone advertises, it is back to the same status quo. And
       | when everyone stops advertising it ends up being the same.
       | 
       | I really hope more companies would stop advertising or at least
       | question the value they are getting out of those money pits. Ads
       | created some of most horrible companies the world ever saw
       | (Google, Facebook).
        
       | julienfr112 wrote:
       | There is also one agent problem : manager status is linked to
       | headcount or/and budget. As a head of marketing, you have no
       | interested at all at reducing your ad budget, quite the opposite
       | !
        
         | seg_lol wrote:
         | Right, if you do science and it turns out your department has a
         | smaller effect on revenue you just lost power/status. So these
         | experiments won't be done at most orgs.
        
         | objclxt wrote:
         | That's a rather naive way of looking at how corporations work.
         | If you're the head of marketing and go to the CFO and say "hey,
         | we found a way to get the exact same results we currently get
         | but at half the cost" you can bet you will be rewarded for it.
        
           | tehlike wrote:
           | Headcount is a sad driver for promotions, so managers are not
           | really incentivize to do it. Only the good ones would try to
           | keep the team lean and fast.
        
           | MattGaiser wrote:
           | Depends. Are you sticking with that company or do you want to
           | shop your resume around?
        
           | one2know wrote:
           | No one is going to half the cost, and executives don't in
           | general do any sort of cost reduction activities for two
           | reasons. First, they would be fighting diminishing returns
           | since there is only so much reduce-able cost. Second, they
           | might in reality only be able to do a small cost reduction,
           | then they are doubly screwed as they will reach diminishing
           | returns faster. If the company mandates cost reduction
           | executives will just fire a few hundred or thousand employees
           | because that is deterministic, easy, and instant savings.
           | They will just restaff when the cost reduction campaign is
           | over.
        
         | strictnein wrote:
         | A smart manager won't just let their budget be cut, because
         | that won't be good for the company. If they find that marketing
         | approach X doesn't work as well as Y or Z, they will simply
         | move funds to do more of Y and Z.
         | 
         | By doing so they will increase revenue and profits all the
         | while keeping ad spending at the same level.
        
       | jasode wrote:
       | _> Stopped [some] Spending on Digital Ads, Nothing Happened.
       | Why?_
       | 
       | [Added "some" for clarity.]
       | 
       | Let me try to restate the author's article because he presents it
       | in a confusing way.
       | 
       | The issue is that both Google and Facebook have "core ad tech"
       | that works decently with proven ROI -- and they both have
       | "additional ad tech inventory" (a.k.a the partners/affiliates)
       | that's _much lower quality_ :
       | 
       | Facebook "quality" ad placements on their core platforms with
       | decent ROI:
       | 
       | - ads in Facebook Newsfeed
       | 
       | - ads in Instagram feed
       | 
       | The "questionable" ad placements with much lower (possibly zero)
       | ROI:
       | 
       | - ads in Facebook Audience Network
       | 
       | (Here's an example screenshot in Facebook's Ads Manager to
       | visualize the options above:
       | https://storage.googleapis.com/website-production/uploads/20...)
       | 
       | Same concept applies to Google AdWords. The adwords clicks on
       | "google.com" perform better than the ones coming from partner
       | websites. The lower quality ad tech in partner networks has more
       | bots, more scam websites, more fraud, more negatives, etc that
       | reduce ROI.
       | 
       | Bottom line is... if you're buying digital ads, you need to
       | understand _exactly_ what _type_ of clicks you 're buying and how
       | it actually performs.
        
         | acfou wrote:
         | great summary
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | That's more or less accepted. Ads that appear in Google search
         | results have some value, since they appear when someone is
         | looking for something specific. That's measurable.
         | 
         | Ads that appear on irrelevant web pages have less value. That's
         | well known. Apparently so little value that it's near zero for
         | known brands, this article says. In the end, they're like
         | useless banner ads. Mostly clicked on by bots.
        
         | croes wrote:
         | Source?
        
           | cm2012 wrote:
           | This all true. Source: My 11 years running ads on these
           | platforms.
        
             | Judgmentality wrote:
             | Can you please elaborate? Your source is just an appeal to
             | authority, but I would really appreciate more evidence to
             | help explain your position.
        
             | tehlike wrote:
             | It is true. Partner sites make revenue for the partner
             | through revshare and partners attempt to create fake clicks
             | and even conversions to inflate their revenue. Cobra effect
             | in play.
             | 
             | This risk is zero (except for things like ad neuseam) on
             | first party / owned and operated placements like
             | search/ig/fb.
             | 
             | As with anything you should verify your roi through third
             | party measurement providers, just like you would do for
             | others.
             | 
             | Disclaimer: current fb ads engineer, former google ads
             | engineer.
        
       | offtop5 wrote:
       | I actually did find a few products which I used for at least a
       | short while, on Facebook.
       | 
       | If I had to guess, hyper targeted digital ad spend is very
       | effective, but you'd have to sell very high margin products to
       | come out ahead.
        
         | ppeetteerr wrote:
         | I believe the article is mainly around third-party websites
         | displaying ads, not FB. I agree that Insta, FB, and Google ads
         | are effective, but only on their own properties. I ran Google
         | ads for an ecomm project and quickly disabled the affiliate
         | site ads since they generated garbage traffic.
        
       | earthboundkid wrote:
       | The only sane way to do advertising is to do what's done on TV:
       | you buy a time slot based on estimated impressions and then a
       | third party auditor (Nielsen) uses surveys to get a better after
       | the fact number. Doing sales based on server traffic is just
       | pointless. You get what you pay for (a server moving bits
       | around), and not a damn thing more.
        
       | m3kw9 wrote:
       | Depends how much of that is attributed to fraud. There should be
       | equivalent of cyber security to ad "security".
        
       | mlazos wrote:
       | Honestly though why tf did these companies never try lowering
       | spend incrementally to see if it made a difference? Is this why
       | engineers are so valued because we understand the simple concept
       | of AB testing?
        
       | tempsy wrote:
       | big brands have the least to gain from online ads
        
       | gnu_beskar wrote:
       | There is this nice book on the subject called Subprime Attention
       | Crisis by Tim Hwang, on why the whole ad industry might be a
       | bubble.
       | 
       | And this Freakonomics podcast episode on digital advertising
       | https://freakonomics.com/podcast/advertising-part-2/
        
       | 6510 wrote:
       | In the middle of the night I visited a dutch but and sell website
       | searching for something specific. The search results, page after
       | page, were filled with advertisements from the same auction
       | agency. My single visit, clicking though 20 pages produced well
       | over a thousand ad impression. I _had to_ click though them to
       | find other peoples ads. The next day they were all gone.
       | Apparently the budget ran out.
        
       | g42gregory wrote:
       | This looks like a very significant disclosure on the businesses'
       | part. Before COVID-19, there was no reason really to turn-off the
       | ad spending just to see what happens (with some exceptions, such
       | as Uber in the other article). I was surprised to see that the
       | small businesses have experienced the same outcome as the large
       | ones. It also looks like at least partially this seems to be
       | coming from the mobile advertising. I wonder, how should we
       | change our Ad placement strategy as a result of this data?
        
       | daniellarusso wrote:
       | I had consulted for a gentleman that owns a one-word domain. He
       | was using AdWords to direct traffic to his site, without any
       | analytics.
       | 
       | I added analytics and began tracking conversion rates (sales).
       | 
       | I was able to reduce his ad-spend by 75% and maintain the
       | conversion rates.
        
       | srg0 wrote:
       | I wish more companies would try to find out the actual value of
       | advertising and targeting. And it probably won't be as good as FB
       | and GOOG would like us to believe.
       | 
       | BTW, there was a recent episode of Freakonomics Radio which
       | talked about this eBay experiment
       | 
       | https://freakonomics.com/podcast/advertising-part-2/
        
         | tehlike wrote:
         | You can use third party measurement providers to validate the
         | roi.
        
         | acfou wrote:
         | this is a really good episode, worth a listen
        
           | nceqs3 wrote:
           | ^agreed
        
       | etempleton wrote:
       | Because most advertising is not effective on a 1:1 basis. The
       | clean, direct conversion funnel is in most industries and sectors
       | a complete myth.
       | 
       | Advertising is about awareness. All good marketing is long-term.
       | Digital advertising has been sold (by overzealous marketers) as
       | magical 1:1 sales machines. It is almost always not that.
       | 
       | This is the hardest thing to convey to clients. Clients want a
       | promise and a guarantee on their investment. The truth is there
       | are no gurantees. But that is what clients want so they go with
       | whoever promises the most the most confidently. The most
       | confident ones are usually either lying or don't know what they
       | are talking about.
        
         | Ericson2314 wrote:
         | I believe there is some overall culture-rotting efficacy, but
         | it's such a depressing conspiracy: complete coordination
         | failure with real problems, and yet a cartel of marginally
         | negative-ROI ad spending to prop up consumerism?
        
       | TedShiller wrote:
       | Ads don't work
        
       | cma wrote:
       | Coke doesn't sponsor the Olympics to sell more Coke only during
       | the Olympics.
        
       | pugets wrote:
       | Could some of this be because the given timelines are too short?
       | They gave the example of Chase, which moved from 400,000 digital
       | ads to only 5,000, but they declared there was no significant
       | difference in business after "only a few days."
       | 
       | As a person who has never used Chase, I'm not going to suddenly
       | want to switch to them just because I saw a banner ad. That would
       | be ridiculous. It's the sum of all the Chase advertisements I've
       | seen in the past decades that have made me believe they're a
       | popular and trustworthy bank.
        
       | bigdict wrote:
       | Together with https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25623858 it
       | might appear like there's a coordinated takedown of ad tech
       | companies going on.
       | 
       | Google derives 80% of its revenue from ads, Facebook 99%. Imagine
       | these giants coming down if it turns out that online ads aren't
       | effective?
       | 
       | EDIT: Tweaked the wording regarding the alleged "coordinated
       | takedown" as a reaction to a comment.
        
         | Ericson2314 wrote:
         | Good. Advertising is a terrible zero-sum industry that just
         | distorts market activity. It has little place in capitalism or
         | any other system.
         | 
         | Exceptions:
         | 
         | - _New_ products deserve some advertising. I would handle that
         | like the patent system. Demonstrate your product is
         | sufficiently different, and get access to some attention
         | economy time slice.
         | 
         | Some may say, well what about competition with existing
         | products to bring down cost? Simple, get rid of stupid
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopolistic_competition and
         | start selling things in unmarked tubs with a price tag.
         | Cheapest one wins. Of course, there has to be quality control
         | and avoiding regulatory capture with that, but stupid brands
         | are not a good solution to that problem.
        
           | strictnein wrote:
           | Centrally planned economy that also controls speech, based on
           | the patent system. This seems like quite the recipe for
           | success.
        
             | Ericson2314 wrote:
             | Start with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cidade_Limpa. I
             | don't think this will slippery slope if well done:
             | 
             | - I choose the TV channel, website, etc. to visit, but
             | public space I might have to walk through because it's the
             | only option - In that public space it may be impossible not
             | to see the adds - sight lines in public spaces are public
             | property
             | 
             | Now, one may ask "what about paying someone to verbally
             | advertise in public space". I think that should remain
             | legal, because that does seem like a slippery slope. I'm
             | willing to risk that society won't collapse so far that
             | that highly inefficient form of advertising became cheap
             | enough with destitute surplus labor.
        
           | Anon1096 wrote:
           | What makes you say advertising is zero-sum? This doesn't seem
           | to be the case at all to me.
           | 
           | Take diamonds for example. Prior to the mid 1900s, diamonds
           | weren't nearly as sought after as they are currently. It took
           | the marketing and advertising efforts (among other efforts,
           | like monopolizing the mining process) of De Beers to convince
           | the public that diamonds should be highly coveted. It was
           | advertising that pushed the public to think spending X
           | months' salary on a diamond ring should be normal. De Beers
           | is obviously highly derided, but this a pretty clear cut case
           | that advertising is NOT zero sum. The value of diamonds went
           | up because of advertising, and nothing else depreciated in
           | value as a result.
           | 
           | I won't even touch on your other points about unbranded
           | goods, except to say that consumers definitely show
           | preference for branded items, and I don't really see why that
           | is a problem.
        
         | ericol wrote:
         | I don't think that's the case. If you browse HN somewhat
         | regularly, you'll see that a lot of times when a post makes it
         | to the top (Or close enough) it's very likely that a related
         | post will make the rounds pretty soon.
         | 
         | I think it's more related to people trying to ride the karma
         | wave than "A coordinated takedown of ad tech companies". And it
         | is effective, because it happens way too often.
        
           | bigdict wrote:
           | I agree, I remember reading an article or a comment
           | explaining this phenomenon on HN, with examples.
           | 
           | Nevertheless it would be interesting if the idea of digital
           | ads being ineffective snowballed to the point where it became
           | like a self-fulfilling prophecy, and led to the demise of
           | large companies that we think of as "giants" or "monopolies".
        
             | pydry wrote:
             | Or a coordinated "strike" by major ad spenders.
             | 
             | I'll bet that a lot of ad spend is zero sum. They'd
             | probably rather share profits than boost google's.
        
         | coldtea wrote:
         | > _it might appear like there 's a coordinated takedown of ad
         | tech companies going on._
         | 
         | Or, you know, somebody read the first article on HN, then found
         | the other somewhere, and thought of posting it, as it relates
         | to the same disucssion...
         | 
         | Happens all the time with posting clusters (and the Baader-
         | Mainhoff phenomenon).
        
       | mam2 wrote:
       | Well people are not going to magically drink less coca because
       | there's no ad. Best case is you get the effect 2 years letter.
        
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