[HN Gopher] Peer-reviewed papers are getting increasingly boring
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Peer-reviewed papers are getting increasingly boring
        
       Author : ingve
       Score  : 347 points
       Date   : 2021-01-01 18:05 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (lemire.me)
 (TXT) w3m dump (lemire.me)
        
       | samch93 wrote:
       | Doug Altman actually wrote a paper about this issue already in
       | 1994 [1]. A great quote: ,,We need less research, better
       | research, and research done for the right reasons"
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2539276/pdf/bmj...
        
       | jabl wrote:
       | One big issue is that grants are short time (meaning researchers
       | spend a stupid fraction of their time writing grant
       | applications), and incredibly competitive. Trying a slightly more
       | ambitious project and failing means the end of your research
       | career. So researchers do the logical thing which is the kind of
       | boring incremental research the article complains about.
       | 
       | Combine this with the focus on bibliometrics in evaluating
       | research output, and we have the mess we have today.
        
         | s0rce wrote:
         | I read a good study that suggested that so much time and effort
         | (and hence money) is wasted on writing proposals for non-funded
         | grants we should just assign a sizable fraction of the money by
         | lottery instead, without needing lengthy proposals. Everyone
         | knows you use the money for other stuff not specific to the
         | grant regardless. The opportunity cost of writing all the
         | rejected proposals would be saved and could be spent on actual
         | science, even if some of it isn't top notch that otherwise
         | would have been funded (and thats assuming that the grant
         | proposal system actually selects the stuff mostly likely to be
         | ground breaking).
        
           | rpedela wrote:
           | Yeah I agree, I would like to see some percentage be lottery
           | based. I think you should still need to write a proposal, but
           | if the proposal isn't selected then it goes in the lottery
           | pool. There are two reasons to still write the proposal:
           | helps organize the researcher's thoughts and shows the
           | researcher is serious.
        
             | jabl wrote:
             | You'd still want some screening for your proposal to be
             | admitted into the lottery pool to weed out the crackpots,
             | but yes.
        
       | pasttense01 wrote:
       | One thing to keep in mind is that some of the papers which
       | reviewers consider very marginal turn out to be breakthroughs.
       | For example Jim Allison, who later won the Nobel Prize:
       | 
       | "Allison was hoping to be published by one of the leading peer-
       | reviewed research journals. But nobody at Cell or Nature or any
       | of the A-list, peer-reviewed journals was willing to publish the
       | findings of this junior academic from Smithville, Texas.
       | "Finally, I ended up publishing the results in a new journal
       | called The Journal of Immunology." It wasn't Science or the New
       | England Journal of Medicine, but it was in print, and in the
       | world.
       | 
       | "At the end of the paper, I said, 'This might be the cell antigen
       | receptor, and here are the reasons why I think that it is the
       | T-cell antigen receptor,' and I just listed it out, all the
       | reasons." It was a bold announcement regarding the biggest topic
       | in immunology. "And nobody noticed it," Allison says. "Except in
       | one lab.""
       | 
       | https://www.wired.com/story/meet-jim-allison-the-texan-who-j...
       | 
       | So you really need to publish the marginal stuff to make sure the
       | breakthrough stuff gets published as well.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | Katalin Kariko, the Hungarian scientist that pioneered the mRNA
         | research, was academically demoted at UPenn because the
         | university considered her research as "impractical" and "waste
         | of time" [0]. That was in 1995.
         | 
         | In 2021, she is a hot candidate for the Nobel Prize for the
         | very same work, which led to mRNA vaccines.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.wired.co.uk/article/mrna-coronavirus-vaccine-
         | pfi...
        
           | mattkrause wrote:
           | And in a similar vein...
           | 
           | Douglas Prasher did a lot of the foundational work on GFP
           | (2010 Nobel Prize) was driving a courtesy shuttle at a Toyota
           | dealership in 2008 because he ran out of funding.
           | 
           | Barry Marshall and Robin Warren had a really tough time
           | convincing people that H. pylori caused stomachs ulcers (but
           | won the 2005 Nobel Prize).
           | 
           | Number theory was famously nothing more than an intellectual
           | curiosity, but makes stuff like this website possible.
           | Microbial opsins were also a weird intellectual backwater
           | before becoming vital to neuroscience. Paul Lauterbur
           | famously quipped that "you could write the entire history of
           | science in the last 50 years in terms of papers rejected by
           | Science or Nature."
           | 
           | We are _really bad_ at predicting the future impact of
           | projects and people, and it 's important to recognize that as
           | a counterweight to schemes that try to select for
           | "excellence." Things that seem laughable at the time can also
           | be the basis for future breakthroughs, so take stupid things
           | like Rand Pauls' ranting about silly-sounding projects with a
           | mountain of salt.
        
         | vorhemus wrote:
         | Isn't it a sign of system failure when a researcher has to beg
         | and plead to get his results published and no one is interested
         | in his publication until someone who understands the break
         | through happens to stumble across it?
        
           | ip26 wrote:
           | Maybe? Sometimes a breakthrough isn't obvious, or can only be
           | understood by a few people on the planet. The story of polar
           | codes comes to mind. How is a journal committee to
           | distinguish such papers from all the other junk?
        
             | derbOac wrote:
             | I think what the parent post is suggesting is almost the
             | opposite maybe? That those few people who should understand
             | the significance are dismissing it.
        
             | remus wrote:
             | > How is a journal committee to distinguish such papers
             | from all the other junk?
             | 
             | Isn't this the job of the journal, it's editors and the
             | peer reviewers?
        
       | kome wrote:
       | I just got my first paper accepted, after 8 months and 2 round of
       | r&r (please clap): the reviewers and editors try very very hard
       | to kill any joy, ambition and big idea. papers should be written
       | with a lot of accademic mannerism. The goal should be to make the
       | paper clear, but it's not true. It just a style to decide if you
       | are part of the clan or not.
        
         | tgv wrote:
         | TBH, big ideas should not be in a paper, unless you can really
         | prove it. I've read too many papers with grand new theories
         | that hinged on an experiment testing the tiniest of tiny
         | facets. All of these have been forgotten now, even by their
         | creators.
         | 
         | Once you have enough experience, know the field inside out, and
         | have gotten a bit of a name, you can write a book or edit a
         | special edition of a journal in which you may set out your
         | ideas.
        
         | burlesona wrote:
         | Congrats! What is your research about? What drew you to this
         | field, and why do you think it's important?
        
           | kome wrote:
           | Thank you! your comment and interest are quite heartwarming!
           | 
           | My research is about household debt: I try to understand why
           | some countries have more private indebtedness than others.
           | Growing up during the American crisis of 2008, and the
           | subsequent global crisis, made me realize that debt can be
           | dangerous, and I wanted to understand what pushes people to
           | borrow money.
           | 
           | For a website, I wrote a short introduction to my research: h
           | ttps://progressive.international/blueprint/3596cc12-0128-4f..
           | . - soon the full research will be published in a peer
           | reviewed journal. :)
        
             | ArnoVW wrote:
             | Interesting intro. It's even translated into French I
             | noticed. So northern Europe is borrowing three times more
             | (per capita) than the US? That goes against everything I
             | know.
             | 
             | One question: did you separate out consumptive credit from
             | mortgages? The amount is so high that it seems to me that
             | it includes mortgages.
             | 
             | Because in that case, is it not the cases that it is simply
             | because norther Europe is wealthy and has more expensive
             | houses and more home ownership.
             | 
             | Those mortgages are backed by houses, and are a sign of
             | good financial practices, allowing gradual increase of
             | wealth. Where consumptive credit is backed by nothing and
             | is generally a sign of bad financial practices.
        
               | skybrian wrote:
               | Well, it's unsecured debt, but a credit card is
               | informally backed by your future income. You might say
               | that all personal debt is backed primarily by your future
               | income.
               | 
               | Even mortgages are backed primarily by future income and
               | secondarily by the house, and this is why the bank wants
               | to know how much money you make.
               | 
               | Whether or not credit card debt results in future wealth
               | depends on what you buy.
        
               | ArnoVW wrote:
               | I'm not an expert in finance, so don't hold it against me
               | if I'm wrong, but does "backed by" not rather mean that
               | the bank can have your house if you can't make payments?
               | 
               | This in opposition to a credit card debt where they have
               | no come-back. Other than the courts and collections
               | agencies.
               | 
               | I was under the impression that this was the reason that
               | consumptive loans generally are capped far far lower than
               | mortgages. And have triple their interest rates.
               | 
               | While it is true that I can put my university on my
               | credit card, it is very expensive and very rare. I would
               | wager that the majority of these loans are for cars.
               | Which, I agree can create wealth, but it would have been
               | 'better practise' to buy a cheaper car, and switch when
               | that anticipated wealth has been created.
               | 
               | Moreover, those cars explain only part of the loans. The
               | rest is 'bigger tv' or the likes. And those do not even
               | create wealth.
        
               | skybrian wrote:
               | It's ambiguous. I'm pointing out some grey areas. When
               | speaking loosely, we can talk about what a loan is
               | "backed by" meaning how people expect to pay it back. Or
               | you could talk about what property secures the loan,
               | legally.
               | 
               | Regarding investment, there are startups that got off the
               | ground by running up credit card debt. It's not what I
               | would do, but it's more like investment than consumption.
               | 
               | Or you could pay for your car to be repaired using a
               | credit card, and if you need the car to get to work,
               | well...
        
               | kome wrote:
               | Thank you for taking the time to read!
               | 
               | Yes, in the full paper I separated consumer credit from
               | mortgages. In the intro I linked, indeed they are
               | aggregated.
               | 
               | Long story short: in northern and continental Europe
               | consumer credit is almost non-existent. Very tiny
               | numbers. Notable exception: the UK. But more mortgages
               | don't necessarily mean more home ownership eh.
               | 
               | "Those mortgages are backed by houses, and are a sign of
               | good financial practices, allowing gradual increase of
               | wealth. Where consumptive credit is backed by nothing and
               | is generally a sign of bad financial practices."
               | 
               | That's almost my conclusion as well, but I put more
               | emphasis on what social policies encourage you to do,
               | more than on good or bad practices. In the US they really
               | encourage going for consumer credit, also their
               | bankruptcy legislation is more lenient and encouraging a
               | fresh start; while in Europe we are much more draconian
               | with debt.
        
         | fancyfredbot wrote:
         | The style of academic papers is intended to encourage
         | objectivity I think. All the same I would agree it can indeed
         | obfuscate at times and a more informal style could be both more
         | enjoyable and easier to read.
        
           | rleigh wrote:
           | And this was how papers were written historically. If you go
           | back and read papers from well known researchers from the
           | early 20th century, they can be a delight to read. We have
           | gone down a road of increased formalism and a removal of any
           | character in the name of "objectivity" and "dispassionate
           | impartiality". This is, of course, utter bunk. Researchers
           | are often not objective or impartial about their work, but
           | it's all carefully phrased to be as dry as possible.
           | 
           | If you read some older papers, you have the author
           | interjecting with their thoughts and opinions directly in the
           | first person, and it can make for much more compelling
           | reading. So long as the data presented is objective and
           | accurate, I can't say I have much problem with it. Today we
           | use the "discussion" section for this, but it's just not the
           | same.
           | 
           | Put it this way, I've fallen asleep reading more papers than
           | I care to admit. But some of those older papers were so
           | enjoyable and interesting to read I'd devour them and go
           | looking for more.
           | 
           | Objectivity is of course important, but I think modern
           | publishing has lost something which is also important: the
           | excitement and interest of the authors in their own work.
        
             | wott wrote:
             | I occasionally read Geography articles from the first half
             | of the XXth century, they are a joy to read, until at least
             | the 50s or 60s. It reads like a book: the vocabulary is
             | very accessible (the few words/concepts which do not belong
             | to the common language are introduced and defined) and
             | while the writing flows pleasantly like a fiction or
             | documentary, it conveys much useful information.
             | 
             | The recent ones? They're horrible piles of pretentious
             | jargon, jargon which oscillates between hyper-technical and
             | utter-bullshit. They read like those technical marketing
             | fluff pieces. Philosophico-technocratic verbiage all along;
             | when you're done with it (assuming you didn't give up in
             | despair or anger), you haven't learned anything, basically.
             | Anyway, they usually don't bother really describing
             | concrete things any more, they rather talk about fancy
             | social constructs. The synergy of the Promethean dynamic of
             | the actants of transformative innovation of mountainity.
             | Right...
             | 
             | (I made up the example, but from real pieces from my last 2
             | attempts. I unfortunately can't remember or find the
             | previous one, it was 10 times worse, I wouldn't even have
             | needed to make up this example, I could just have copy-
             | pasted its abstract.)
             | 
             | The difference is like between reading a page-turner, and
             | trying to read the latest ISO standard about development
             | methodology in safety-related domains (perfect for falling
             | asleep before the second page).
        
               | rleigh wrote:
               | I've had some limited experience with academic writing,
               | and overall I've not been happy with it.
               | 
               | As a PhD student, my supervisor would want to take my
               | writing and reword it to sound "more impressive". That
               | was basically adding in all the pretentious jargon you
               | are referring to. I don't think it aids at all in
               | conveying facts in a clear and simple manner. It's
               | completely unnecessary. More often than not it is
               | deliberately aimed to be non-committal and ambiguous so
               | it ends up saying nothing of any substance. That's
               | completely intentional. There seems to be a school of
               | thought that you should never say you aren't sure or
               | don't understand something, and so you couch that in soft
               | language rather than being direct. I utterly despise it,
               | and regard it as a form of intellectual dishonesty.
               | 
               | Later, as a scientific software developer, I tried to
               | write and submit a technical paper for the software I was
               | developing at the time. I spent weeks writing in detail
               | about what it did, along with lots of figures
               | demonstrating its performance and behaviour. But again,
               | after my supervisor was done "revising" it, it become a
               | lot of pretentious waffle that said almost nothing--all
               | of the detail and simple description was reworded
               | ambiguously or removed entirely. If you wanted to use the
               | software, reading the paper would tell you almost nothing
               | of importance. It seems to me that the primary purpose of
               | papers--to be read and to inform others for their work--
               | has not been the case for several decades now.
               | 
               | In the end the technical paper mentioned above was
               | rejected, and the reason was utterly ridiculous. The
               | software used a 5D data model inherited as part of its
               | fundamental design from earlier software. Deliberately
               | done for interoperability. The reviewer was from some
               | competitor group who had a thing about the software being
               | unusable unless it supported arbitrary numbers of
               | dimensions. The paper was rejected as being
               | "controversial" as a result, despite the fact that it was
               | an evolution of something that had been in production use
               | for over 15 years in institutions the world over, and
               | worked perfectly as intended. That ultimately led to
               | losing funding and being made redundant. Such is the
               | fickle state of academia where you aren't judged in the
               | quality of your work, but subject to arbitrary and
               | capricious action like this. And peer-reviewed academic
               | publishing being used as an assessment metric for
               | promotion and funding has led to what it is today: a
               | bizarre meta-game played by academics which has little to
               | do with high-quality research or high-quality
               | publications.
               | 
               | I'm afraid I became sorely disillusioned with the whole
               | thing.
        
         | guicho271828 wrote:
         | Congraturations on paper acceptance, but joy is very optional
         | in research. Joy is emotional and it clobbers logical insight.
         | Peer review is an attempt to guarantee a steady firm progress.
         | It is a matter of taste --- do you want progress or just want
         | to be comfortable? If you want joy, better to be a SF writer...
         | Still, strong results with good execution are allowed to enjoy
         | some freedom.
        
           | adwn wrote:
           | > _[...] but joy is very optional in research. Joy is
           | emotional and it clobbers logical insight._
           | 
           | I'm pretty sure OP meant "joy" as in "motivation/enjoyment of
           | one's work", not as in "hedonistic pleasure".
        
       | awillen wrote:
       | But on the other hand, with a severe replication crisis in
       | science (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21504366/science-
       | replicat...), isn't it a good thing that we have a bunch of
       | boring papers that are close to stuff that's already happened?
       | It's not people replicating others' findings exactly, but it at
       | least gives points of comparison that can help to weed out some
       | of the problematic work out there.
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | Boring is often a good thing, not just in science. There's a
         | reason that "May you live in interesting times" is considered a
         | curse.
         | 
         | Think about the year we just had. Whatever else you might say
         | about it, it wasn't boring.
         | 
         | [Clarification] Individual local experiences may have been
         | boring at times, but the year as a whole, from a historical
         | point of view, was not. And the things that made it non-boring
         | also made it suck big fat honking weenies. IMHO of course, but
         | I'm pretty sure most people on earth would agree with that
         | assessment.
        
           | hutzlibu wrote:
           | "Think about the year we just had. Whatever else you might
           | say about it, it wasn't boring. "
           | 
           | Well, from a global perspective maybe not. But subjective
           | there were lots of freaking times this year that were just
           | boring, because I wanted to go traveling and on festivals and
           | just see something else and not be locked down (even though
           | in my area the lockdown was quite light)
        
           | the-dude wrote:
           | I can assure you : lots of people found last year extremely
           | boring ( not me ).
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | > Think about the year we just had. Whatever else you might
           | say about it, it wasn't boring.
           | 
           | Being restrained to the house, watching the same news over
           | and over again, not being able to see friends, no evenings
           | out, parties, restaurant visits, &c. and you call this "not
           | boring"?
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | ...because of an unexpected, persistent, global threat to
             | the lives of everyone, whose appearance led to economies
             | worldwide shutting down, getting everyone glued to the news
             | you mention, and putting a lot of people in precarious
             | economical situation? Yeah, I wouldn't consider that
             | boring. Tiring, for sure, but not boring.
        
               | amelius wrote:
               | You may call the problems "interesting", but the
               | political solutions I've seen so far are far from
               | interesting ...
               | 
               | Yes, we're in economically difficult times (well, most
               | people who are not in IT), but this is from an
               | intellectual viewpoint not a much more intriguing problem
               | than, say, global poverty, or climate change. And so it's
               | not like there is a shortage of intellectual challenges.
               | This crisis, therefore, doesn't add much in that sense.
               | Yet it does take away a lot of freedoms that make life
               | interesting.
        
           | awillen wrote:
           | I disagree - boring is critical in science. Good science
           | means detailed record keeping and precise experimentation.
           | It's good if the results are exciting, but the process of
           | doing good science is typically quite boring when it's done
           | right.
           | 
           | Edit: This comment makes no sense, because I misread the
           | comment I was responding to as saying "just not in science"
           | not "not just in science"
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | bobthepanda wrote:
             | This doesn't sound like disagreement.
        
               | awillen wrote:
               | I was really confused for a bit there, and I finally
               | realized the comment I was responding to said "not just
               | in science," not "just not in science" as I had
               | originally read it. Whoops.
        
           | techer wrote:
           | Despite being widely attributed as a Chinese curse, there is
           | no known equivalent expression in Chinese.
           | 
           | The nearest related Chinese expression translates as "Better
           | to be a dog in times of tranquility than a human in times of
           | chaos."
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_ti.
           | ..
           | 
           | Not saying you claimed it was Chinese but FYI.
        
             | mdiesel wrote:
             | I've only come across it as part of Pratchetts work, in the
             | book Interesting Times, and had just assumed it was another
             | of his witticisms.
        
             | Bakary wrote:
             | There is a Chinese saying that every saying is eventually
             | attributed to the Chinese given enough time
        
               | NeutronStar wrote:
               | Is this saying itself attributed to the Chinese?
        
         | systemvoltage wrote:
         | I think we need to take Vox documentaries with a grain of salt.
         | They're not as thorough as the Economist, etc. and have their
         | own agenda mixed with YouTube content engagement metrics. You
         | can argue that's the case with any publication but IMO YouTube
         | forces content makers to do crazy shit like exciting facial
         | expressions in thumbnails for better engagement.
        
           | apsec112 wrote:
           | I personally know the author of that piece very well and can
           | vouch for their credibility - feel free to ask if you have
           | any questions about their work or about the replication
           | crisis in science.
        
           | awillen wrote:
           | That's just one article - it's not a unique point of view
           | from Vox.
           | 
           | https://www.nature.com/news/1-500-scientists-lift-the-lid-
           | on... https://ecrcommunity.plos.org/2019/11/18/living-in-the-
           | repro...
        
         | patcon wrote:
         | This sounds like the age-old balance between maintenance/repair
         | and breaking-new-ground/innovation. My personal sense is that
         | there is and always has been a gendered dimension to striking
         | this balance, and varying levels of predisposition that
         | bellcurve along gender-specific neurotypes.
         | 
         | For me, once I was pointed to this axis, I started recognizing
         | it everywhere -- legal institutions, the way companies are run,
         | etc etc
         | 
         | Hofstede's cultural dimension studies commissioned by IBM in
         | the 50s (?) have things to say about this too
        
         | mickallen wrote:
         | You make a good point.
        
         | xenocyon wrote:
         | Yes, boring in the conventional sense is desirable from a
         | scientific point of view (because the preference for surprising
         | results leads to the biggest problem science has today: most
         | published findings are incorrect). The linked article doesn't
         | really do a very good job of explaining what "boring" means to
         | the author, but my hope is he doesn't have a problem with
         | boring in the sense of negative findings or unsurprising
         | results.
        
       | bjornsing wrote:
       | Feynman made some interesting observations in his 1973 Cargo Cult
       | Science speech...
        
       | Areading314 wrote:
       | Irritating to see this Atlantic "study" being accepted as valid
       | and written about. This happened with the "bullshit jobs" meme
       | where it stirred up enough controversy that it became an accepted
       | fact for many people, even though the original research was
       | highly questionable and didn't actually prove much of anything
        
       | burlesona wrote:
       | This is a reasonable and well-explained argument, which I've
       | heard many times before: the incentives are currently producing a
       | large quantity of mediocre research, rather than groundbreaking
       | science.
       | 
       | So let me ask the research community on HN something I see
       | discussed less often. What alternative incentives exist today, or
       | could be created, that would push more scientists to try higher
       | risk / higher reward research?
        
         | derbOac wrote:
         | Only speaking for the US, but
         | 
         | Federal grant funding needs to be increased.
         | 
         | Indirect funds need to be eliminated.
         | 
         | The funding structures need to be reorganized. Some ideas I
         | think have merit are basing grant award on a lottery system, or
         | funding individual researchers based on previous research for a
         | limited nonrenewable period of time.
         | 
         | Grant review panels need to be mixed up dramatically. Currently
         | they consist largely of people who have received grants in the
         | past. One of the biggest predictors of proposal rating is being
         | a co-author of people on the grant panel. I think grant panels
         | need to be based on some lottery system too, like everyone with
         | an ORCID ID gets thrown into a pool somehow, like jury duty.
         | 
         | Universities need to be funded in a way that's separated from
         | grant receipts.
        
         | cbsmith wrote:
         | Honestly: more research $'s from government instead of
         | industry. Industry wants conservative investments that reliably
         | pay off.
        
         | TobyBrull wrote:
         | Give people tenure after their PhD and pay them a crappy salary
         | that is guaranteed for the rest of their lives.
        
           | bjornsing wrote:
           | Interesting idea. Like a Universal Basic Income for PhDs...
           | :)
        
         | austincheney wrote:
         | Percentage ownership of resultant intellectual property.
         | 
         | A good example is the Minneola, a wonderful citrus fruit. The
         | plant patent is owned by three parties: the University of
         | Minnesota and the two inventors.
        
           | zucker42 wrote:
           | Of all the possible alternative measurement or incentive
           | systems for scientific progress, I can hardly think of a more
           | meaningless and damaging one than patents. There's a huge
           | problem of companies submitting vague, overbroad, or
           | superfluous patents. And plus it does nothing to address the
           | major problem indicated in the original article: we don't
           | incentive people to produce important research.
        
           | varjag wrote:
           | Largely inapplicable beyond applied sciences.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | Imagine how much the Maxwell Trust would own today... The
             | biggest problem with a viral IP system is that there would
             | be nothing left for applied scientists.
        
               | varjag wrote:
               | And science would likely devolve into patent trolling
               | system.
        
           | logifail wrote:
           | > Percentage ownership of resultant intellectual property.
           | 
           | Pfft. I've been through this, my ex-supervisor attempted to
           | file a patent which included a bunch of figures and
           | illustrations I drew single-handedly while writing up my PhD
           | and which were lifted from my thesis without my consent.
           | 
           | My PhD was funded by a government research council.
           | 
           | My ex-supervisor was filing a patent on behalf of a private
           | company he set up to run in parallel out of his university
           | laboratory.
           | 
           | There are some people who just don't care about rules and
           | figure they can just ask for forgiveness later. I'm still
           | cross about this, over 20 years later.
        
         | kome wrote:
         | i would say to emphasize bibliometrics measures of productivity
         | less (how much you publish) and emphasize measures of social
         | impact more. But it easy to say...
        
         | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
         | The elephant in the room, IMO, is that there is only so much
         | ground to be broken. The physical world is fundamentally
         | limited and limiting. There's a limit to how much there is to
         | know about it, and as we come to know more of the big things,
         | it becomes more and more difficult to learn the smaller and
         | smaller things. This outcome -- that the rate of groundbreaking
         | research is slowing -- is what we should expect, even under a
         | consistent policy.
        
           | bonoboTP wrote:
           | My biggest transformative learning experience regarding this
           | has been how much of even technical (in particular CS, AI,
           | ML) research is about recombination of existing ideas and
           | that the most successful researchers aren't doing strictly
           | technical contributions and "breaking ground", "discovering
           | new terrain", but of selling new stories and narratives
           | involving known concepts and shifting the emphasis from known
           | aspect to another known aspect.
           | 
           | Relatedly, in this lecture [0] he expresses it by contrasting
           | the "positivist" model where knowledge is piled on, linearly
           | expanding vs the model of discourse, where research is a
           | conversation, where participants must know what the others
           | take for granted, assume, doubt etc and new contributions
           | argue that there are better ways to do or conceptualize
           | things. Works are forgotten, left behind, ignored etc. A work
           | can be valuable in one context at one stage in the discourse,
           | while worthless at another time. It's not like a neutral map
           | of some terrain that we can just file and store forever.
           | 
           | He's in the social sciences, where this may be more obvious,
           | but it's also true of sufficiently developed technical
           | sciences too. When the low hanging fruit has been picked, the
           | game becomes closer to zero sum. I mean new value can still
           | be created, but not mainly through bringing in "new
           | characters into the story" but by letting the story unfold
           | using the same characters (main ideas). Only a true paradigm
           | shift may break this equilibrium.
           | 
           | [0] https://youtu.be/vtIzMaLkCaM
        
             | HPsquared wrote:
             | Kind of like how sales and marketing people search for and
             | find new customers and applications for an existing product
             | or service.
        
         | shishy wrote:
         | I'm not sure that's actually something we want within the
         | institution. IMO the most important thing is improving the
         | overall _reliability_ of research.
         | 
         | On this note, and admittedly a bit of a (relevant) plug: I work
         | at a startup called scite that's trying to improve this --
         | https://scite.ai
         | 
         | Citations are the primary mechanism by which scientific papers
         | "talk" to one another, and one of the systemic issues we see in
         | the status quo is a sort of numerical reductionism where a lot
         | of emphasis is placed on "how many times someone is cited"
         | without any indication of whether those citation counts are
         | from papers that support or dispute someone's findings.
         | 
         | One of the things we do at scite is let you see, for a paper,
         | how it has been cited (i.e. not just a count, but the
         | surrounding textual context around the citation, and a
         | classification from our model as to whether the citing work
         | provides supporting or disputing evidence for the cited paper,
         | or just mentions it).
         | 
         | That information is also aggregated to the author level, or
         | journal, and so on.
         | 
         | The hope is that by providing (and improving) this service so
         | that researchers can see how papers are cited, we're able to
         | promote more reliable science (in addition to letting someone
         | explore new subject areas / doing lit reviews much faster, and
         | other things).
         | 
         | I just wanted to share that because a lot of the other comments
         | were more abstract and it might help to include something more
         | tangible that's being actively worked on now. There's a lot of
         | interesting work in general in this space.
         | 
         | If you have any thoughts / feedback / questions, feel free to
         | reply here (I check occassionally) or write to me at the email
         | in my profile.
        
         | efavdb wrote:
         | A related point is that we could improve how good work is
         | bubbled up. Another poster pointed out Allison's work that led
         | to the Nobel prize, and he claimed it was appreciated by just
         | one group and that helped it get broader notice. How many great
         | works go unnoticed now just because there is no famous author
         | on the paper who has the bully pulpit to command attention?
        
         | 13415 wrote:
         | The only alternatives I see:
         | 
         | 1. National research funding agencies and universities need to
         | stop doing their assessments based on publication counting. Of
         | course, publications need to be taken into account somehow, but
         | at the very least these indicators should be weighed by curated
         | rankings of journals.
         | 
         | 2. Existing publications can be used as an indicator for how
         | much output is to be expected in the future, but the goals for
         | research output should be kept reasonably low. You cannot
         | control the output of researchers, you can only control which
         | ones you hire and (to some extent) the type of research they
         | conduct.
         | 
         | 3. Hiring in academia needs to be based more often on screening
         | candidates by committees of outside experts in the field
         | instead of local staff and people who don't know the area well.
         | Projects also always need to be evaluated by experts on
         | project's topic. (As strange as this may sound, this is often
         | not the case!) It might even help to prune away irrelevant
         | indicators, e.g. ask candidates to submit only 3-5 of their
         | best publications and completely ignore the rest. And by
         | "completely" I really mean completely. The reason is that if
         | you have two researchers and one of them has 20 publications
         | with five really good ones, and the other has 40 mediocre
         | publications and not a single good one, then it is very hard
         | for a normal assessment committee to justify taking the first
         | one, but it's always easy to converge on the second one, even
         | if that is exactly the wrong choice.
         | 
         | 4. Assessment committees need to be told to evaluate the
         | quality and originality of the research only. If you really
         | want or need a certain output quantity, then make it part of
         | the formal hiring criteria, not part of the scientific
         | evaluation.
         | 
         | 5. Increase funding for risky projects and risky individual
         | grants, elimination of criteria that exclude unusual CVs (e.g.
         | allow long time after PhD, people from other areas, people with
         | time spent in business, unusual research suggestions).
         | Originality should be one of the highest ranking criteria.
         | There should also be a focus on versatility and _hard skills_.
         | Even in the humanities, never hire anyone who says anything
         | disparaging about mathematical methods and statistics, and
         | never leverage people who don 't know the tools of their trade
         | into positions of power.
         | 
         | Basically, you cannot push scientists to anything. Once someone
         | is hired at the postdoc level, you cannot steer much,
         | micromanagement and constant evaluation are highly counter-
         | productive. You need to hire scientists that do interesting
         | research. Treat them like an investment in a startup: Most of
         | them will fail but some of them will succeed. Give them a
         | second chance, maybe even a third one, but not indefinitely
         | many. The hiring policies and processes at universities are
         | often bad. Candidates are not evaluated by experts, there is
         | plenty of favoritism, boring high producers are favored over
         | interesting researchers who want to built something up, because
         | the local staff doesn't like scientists who "shake things up",
         | and so on. There is a lot of inertia to overcome in Academia,
         | being a good scientist can sometimes even be harmful to your
         | career. Funding agencies need to steer against this.
         | 
         |  _Edit: Much of what I mention can also be achieved by getting
         | an absolute top researcher in an area, give him or her an
         | institute or research unit and ton of money, and let them do
         | their thing. They know what to do and whom to hire. But it 's
         | expensive._
        
           | asciident wrote:
           | From my experience, most of your ideas have been implemented
           | in different ways in the academic procedures as best as they
           | can.
           | 
           | 1. Funding agencies and universities don't make decisions.
           | Only individuals in those institutions do. And I don't know
           | any individuals who admit to doing assessments based on
           | publication counts. They'd be openly mocked for such an
           | archaic way of thinking. The only people who seem to openly
           | obsess over publication counts are Ph.D. students.
           | 
           | 2. Agreed, but output can be measured in different ways
           | besides traditional academic publications.
           | 
           | 3. It seems like this is already done, through recommendation
           | letters when people apply, and in external letters during the
           | tenure process. I see the opposite outcomes, whenever I've
           | seen someone with fewer but better publications compared
           | against someone with more but weaker publications, the first
           | is always preferred. Because it's easy for someone to make
           | the case "Person 1 has fewer paper but they're more impactful
           | and they choose riskier problems, an excellent trait" versus
           | someone to make the case for "Person 2 has more papers in
           | quantity so are more productive." Unless of course it's not
           | clear that person 1's papers are actually higher quality, in
           | which case the original premise doesn't hold.
           | 
           | 4. This is already the primary factor from what I've seen.
           | That's the whole point of job talks, publications listed on
           | CVs, etc. I've never seen a tenure-track hire without people
           | reading some of the papers listed on the CV, and discussing
           | the presented work in the job talk.
           | 
           | 5. Half of the funding agencies now say they're looking for
           | risky ideas, the word "transformative" has been a common part
           | of NSF vocabulary for decades. Originality is one of the NIH
           | core criteria factors, as is criteria about the Investigator
           | themselves. How panelists interpret the criteria is more
           | social and political than a technical thing.
           | 
           | Anyways, maybe we probably just live in different academic
           | worlds, but I don't see as much blatant expression of the
           | biases you are describing, and feel like the major goals of
           | your ideas have already been implemented which has led us to
           | the current situation. Maybe not everyone buys into them, but
           | as you say there isn't a way to get a bunch of individuals to
           | follow orders, so the only change that's possible is changes
           | to process which has already happened. I don't agree that we
           | need to add additional bureaucracy like rating applicants on
           | "did they disparage mathematics", which I find extremely
           | problematic.
           | 
           | Even the last idea in your edit is already done in every way
           | possible. The MacArthur award, Turing Award, Nobel Prize,
           | various prizes, etc. all give an absolutely top researcher
           | money and prestige, so they can do their thing.
           | 
           | I think the best way forward are social solutions, rather
           | than procedural. Convince minds, rather than add bureaucracy.
        
             | 13415 wrote:
             | We're definitely living in different parts of the world,
             | work in different areas, and are at different universities.
             | Obviously, I wouldn't have written the points if they had
             | been implemented at my university. (I don't want to write
             | in which country and which discipline, since I don't want
             | to be identified. I'm one of very few foreigners with long-
             | term funding in my area, we are a small country with only
             | few universities plagued by all of the problems I've
             | mentioned.)
             | 
             | I have to insist about what I wrote about candidates who
             | disparage mathematical methods in the humanities. These
             | people can destroy whole departments if you let them roam
             | freely.
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | I left academia for industry, so my opinion might be colored by
         | the transition.
         | 
         | The way I see it, the easy problems that can be solved by one
         | or two individuals are mostly gone. You need large diverse
         | teams to tackle interesting problems.
         | 
         | To translate this into policy, you need opportunities for many
         | more first authors, and you need to try to incentivize
         | completely different departments to work together.
        
           | virtuallynathan wrote:
           | I'm not sure this is true in all areas, there are very simple
           | questions left unanswered in health/medicine/nutrition that
           | could be at least partially answered by very small studies.
        
           | bra-ket wrote:
           | > You need large diverse teams to tackle interesting problems
           | 
           | This 'corporate' view of science is just not true, kind of
           | like adding "man-hours" to software projects doesn't
           | necessarily account for better software, speeds up or enables
           | those projects.
           | 
           | Large diverse teams just produce more mediocre research, if
           | recent experience with massive "deep learning" industry is of
           | any indication, or fail completely like that "blue brain"
           | project with multi billion funding and thousands of
           | participants.
           | 
           | Bigger is not always better and it has never been necessary
           | for good science.
        
             | mattkrause wrote:
             | The Human Brain Project is an extreme case.
             | 
             | On the other hand, there are pretty hard limits to the
             | sorts of projects that our standard model of a single full-
             | time person[0] can do, even with some part-time
             | collaborators (i.e., middle authors). This is especially
             | true for projects that involve a combination of very
             | different approaches: bioinformatics, HTS, in vivo
             | validation, etc.
             | 
             | I've noticed more and more papers with multiple (sometimes
             | 5!) co-first authors, but that's a kludge around the fact
             | that we can't figure out how to allocate credit to teams.
             | 
             | [0] And, almost invariably, a trainee
        
           | s0rce wrote:
           | I'd say this is true in a sense that you "stand on the
           | shoulders of giants", you rely on a lot of technology and
           | science that has been developed by others. But small non-
           | diverse teams can accomplish important (but likely small)
           | breakthroughs in their field. You don't necessarily need a
           | large diverse team to do important science. My anecdote is my
           | PhD work.
        
         | tracyhenry wrote:
         | Not sure if it applies to other fields, but as I observe in CS,
         | many professors start tackling more interesting & risky
         | projects after getting their tenure. Even though their
         | students/postdocs still value paper count a lot, they care more
         | about producing ground breaking works.
        
         | SubiculumCode wrote:
         | I reject the notion that a dominant proportion of research
         | publications are mediocre. Instead, the problems have gotten
         | harder. Harder research questions forces careful, yet
         | incremental, research programs.
        
         | Bakary wrote:
         | I think it might be a mistake to frame the issue as scientists
         | not doing enough groundbreaking research. Those scientists do
         | exist in greater numbers than before and have the right
         | incentives guiding them. What is happening instead is that the
         | superfluous group is expanding at an ever greater rate.
         | 
         | These are two parallel worlds being discussed as if they were
         | one.
         | 
         | To answer your question, I believe we need to look outside of
         | academia to relieve the pressures on most people so that fewer
         | are tempted to add to the science glut. I'd venture to mention
         | UBI but that's a whole can of worms
        
         | aqsalose wrote:
         | In my limited experience as a disillusioned PhD student
         | dropout, the issues are in approximate order:
         | 
         | 1. Publications in prestigious journals have become a measure,
         | not a way to communicate. This leads to perverse behavior.
         | 
         | Any kind of project that would involve deep work is very scary,
         | unless it has early low-hanging fruit called easy publishable
         | papers as intermediate steps that are easily published. I
         | personally felt I was encouraged to find such fruits without
         | too much coherence in what I was doing. Preferentially one does
         | not have to learn or study anything challenging, because that
         | makes the fruit potentially much more difficult to pick.
         | 
         | My proposed solution: do not judge researchers by length of
         | their publication list to evaluate them to hire/fund. Judge
         | them by a selection of their recent work instead and maybe
         | their presentation what they are doing now.
         | 
         | 2. This is connected to another problem, corrective feedback
         | comes quite late into play, when the most work has been done
         | and it is very costly to change anything. I feel better results
         | could be had of reviewers entered the stage when study was
         | being drafted.
         | 
         | Currently, submit a manuscript into a journal, get it rejected
         | after a round of substantive, critical but correct reviewer
         | comments? Optimal thing is not to review the work as suggested
         | in the light of new ideas, but try to find a less prestigious
         | journal likely to accept it with minimal work.
         | 
         | 3. This has effects on conferences. While their primary purpose
         | has always been presenting ones research and hearing about
         | others, they kind of turn too much into a platform for
         | advertising your research _so that you get cited_. Thus the
         | general feeling can be quite one-way, and there is less
         | knowledge enhancing communication by scientific discussion.
         | Some conferences are better than others (amount genuine
         | curiosity and interest helps), but sometimes I felt people
         | would come to deliver their own little advert, maybe as chore
         | between meeting their personal friends, instead of coming to
         | talk, both receive and offer meaningful updates.
         | 
         | 4. PI-centered networks and death of university department. I
         | believe originally university departments were formed because
         | it was thought beneficial and reasonable to have scholars with
         | similar interests nearby. Social networks are probably quite
         | important part of science, and is easier with people who are
         | located often in the same building. Research group culture is a
         | fascinating way to have groups of people nearby who don't
         | communicate. It appears that to PI, each unsanctioned contact
         | from their underlings to outside the group is a distraction at
         | best (if it leads to underling working on publishing something
         | PI is not involved in) or an unwelcome threat at worst, because
         | it risks changing their plans, whether they concern the
         | projects underlings should working on, the author order on
         | planned manuscripts, or something else. All presentations to
         | group outsiders is about signalling importance, prestige and
         | coolness, but no research communication within department to
         | help with unfinished work.
         | 
         | Solution would involve stopping funding faux institutions
         | within institutions, and start paying researchers in a way that
         | encourages them actually collaborate within their physical
         | departments when it is useful. (Salary paid by
         | university/dept., no project grants.)
         | 
         | 5. I suppose science moving very large projects involving lots
         | of contributors can not be helped, but it is incompatible with
         | publication authorship as the currency of value in academia. It
         | leads to authorship beimg traded as a currency within projects.
         | One is "paid" by official authorship in some papers; sometimes
         | a person can show their magnanimity by bestowing it upon some
         | people who participated. Sometimes technical or statistical
         | help does not get acknowledged.
         | 
         | IDK what to do about that. Moving out of evaluating publication
         | lists to evaluating personal contribution/capability might
         | help. In addition to big publications that are meant to
         | communicate the big findings publicly but leave outsiders to
         | interpret author order like tea leaves, record publicly some
         | documentation what exactly each individual did, in their own
         | writing, and that documentation is what the contributors should
         | refer to in their CVs?
        
         | CJefferson wrote:
         | I think the problem is requiring excessive polish in academic
         | papers.
         | 
         | This causes two problems:
         | 
         | 1) It's easier to polish something which is incremental.
         | 
         | 2) It's easier to achieve the look of polish by purposefully
         | hiding issues and smoothing over edges.
         | 
         | I'd personally like every paper about a technique or algorithm
         | to include as many problems where it does terribly as where it
         | does well -- this is annoyingly uncommon. Also, people
         | shouldn't be afraid to discuss all the nasty unfinished bits
         | but in practice if you mention them reviews say "well, go fix
         | that before acceptance".
        
           | chalst wrote:
           | I think this is close to the truth but misses an important
           | factor: journal editors are, as a result of increasing
           | submissions, asking for more refereeing. As a result, an
           | increasingly high proportion of academics don't referee at
           | all and those that do tend to referee more papers in less
           | depth.
           | 
           | With less time spent per referee report, easily appreciated
           | evidence of polish matters more where papers that pay
           | attention to careful issues of methodology, tackle deep
           | problems, etc., require time on the part of the referee that
           | they are unwilling to spend.
        
           | Cd00d wrote:
           | I don't know if it's the cause, but the "polish" requirement
           | is horrendous.
           | 
           | When I left academia one of my most significant thoughts was,
           | "at least I won't have to argue over the 21st draft of a 3
           | page paper ever again".
        
           | bjornsing wrote:
           | Yes. I'm into ML/AI and would love to read more papers on
           | cool ideas studied in isolation, but most papers out there
           | are more "we combined these fiftytwelve techniques and look
           | it's SOTA on this dataset!" (It should also say "we have no
           | idea why" but they tend to leave that out.)
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | Many novel funding approaches have been proposed in an attempt
         | to free scientists from the endless grant-> public-> grant
         | cycle.
         | 
         | One is to accept only mini grant proposals, say 10 pages at
         | most, and screen these to meet some minimum threshold, say,
         | aiming for the top 20th percentile. Then a random subset of
         | these get funded. This helps diversify the funding somewhat,
         | and hopefully catch more "risky, but interesting" projects.
         | 
         | Another approach has been universal funding. The most basic is
         | "everyone gets X research dollars", and any additional funding
         | would require submitting grants on top of that. More complex
         | schemes propose "everyone gets 2X dollars, but they must donate
         | X to other researchers", which allows some people to accumulate
         | the funds necessary to conduct big, expensive work. But all of
         | these proposals aim to minimize grant writing and review, and
         | hopefully to diversify the kinds of work being done.
         | 
         | Longer windows of evaluation could also be useful. Big
         | interesting ideas take time to develop and support, but the
         | competitive academic environment demands quick evaluations,
         | which make ot difficult to sustain long projects. Evaluating a
         | research project after 5 years, instead of 1 or 2, could help
         | alleviate some of the pressure on researchers so they can
         | pursue longer agendas.
         | 
         | Every researcher can come up with their pet theory and
         | solution. Ultimately, I think that all of these approaches, and
         | many others, have merit. But we need to experiment with
         | different policies to see what works.
        
         | vosper wrote:
         | This is something Patrick Collison (Stripe CEO) has been
         | talking about these past few years. Here's an Atlantic article
         | from Collison and Tyler Cowen called "We Need a New Science of
         | Progress"
         | 
         | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/we-need-...
         | 
         | And an EconTalk episode on the same subject (which goes into
         | more detail than the article)
         | 
         | https://www.econtalk.org/patrick-collison-on-innovation-and-...
        
       | 2038AD wrote:
       | Surprised to see no mention of Thomas Kuhn or _The Structure of
       | Scientific Revolutions_ in the blogpost or in the discussion
       | here. Though briefly looking at the linked papers, he 's cited by
       | Thurner et al. and directly discussed by Bhattacharya and
       | Packalen. His ideas on incremental science seem pretty
       | appropriate.
        
       | NotPavlovsDog wrote:
       | I am currently pursuing a second master's degree (in management),
       | some of my personal experience in academia:
       | 
       | 1) Publish or perish is a real thing. Citation ratings and
       | measuring affects many of the academics I have encountered. This
       | contributes to boring papers.
       | 
       | 2) Mentioning the replication crisis in social science gets a lot
       | of the social science academics observably upset and defensive.
       | They have to take care of 1)!
       | 
       | Compare this to the exemplary stance in CS, as demonstrated by
       | researchers criticizing Google for not backing magic AI claims. [
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2766-y ] This vigorous
       | scientific stance is almost impossible to imagine in social
       | science outside of Critical Management Studies.
       | 
       | 3) I have enjoyed my time spent with CS academics a lot more,
       | luckily have some interaction even now - the ones I have spoken
       | to seem to lack the self-criticism blind spots the social
       | scientists exhibited. The CS group seems to have a lot more fun
       | with their research.
       | 
       | It was also interesting to observe that for term papers, many CS
       | professors wanted to see a report with _working software_ and a
       | well-thought-out story of what challenges one encountered and how
       | they were overcome. Not one paper was returned because of
       | improper styling nor citing. They appeared to enjoy the battle
       | stories of trouble-shooting and finding solutions to assignment
       | challenges. They even read the sources I linked to, commenting on
       | what they thought was a good find.
       | 
       | From that experience (and others), CS sure feels like more of a
       | meritocracy.
       | 
       | In opposition, some social science professors were obsessed with
       | proper APA or Harvard styling and citing "the right thinkers".
       | Circular citation is a real thing. Perhaps since they can't prove
       | anything, establishing credibility via cliques, mutual citation
       | and signaling may be their academic survival strategy.
       | 
       | It does feel like management and CS are orthogonal, and this has
       | motivated me to direct my research towards a hard realism
       | approach to facilitating communication between developers and
       | value driven management.
       | 
       | I.e. I have observed that even when a manager or leader wants to
       | hire developers, social science damaged managers and HR will
       | actively sabotage these efforts because they are still,
       | fundamentally, driven by Taylorist, control fetish concepts
       | (which they refuse to accept). The SS victims seem to wish to
       | push their personal struggle on developers. "I suffered through
       | school, you must show a diploma as well". Some even demand
       | transcripts!
       | 
       | When I consulted a company that was complaining about how hard it
       | was to recruit developers, I looked at their application process.
       | They demanded college transcripts even before the review of
       | applicants began. I hope you are laughing with me at the entitled
       | absurdity of this. Oh you want a personal letter as well?
       | 
       | Bitter HR person, do you fail to understand that you are
       | competing in your recruitment against multiple actors actively
       | scraping through code repositories and blogs to find and contact
       | devs? Or does accepting that a developer is incomparably more
       | competitive on the job market than you and has multiple offers of
       | employment at any time just hurt too much?
       | 
       | One of my favorite quotes from a researcher (well cited) about
       | managing developers includes a rant on how creative, industry
       | competitive (can get another job) and financially stable
       | developers are "hard to manage".
       | 
       | This may be how many incompetent managers feel, deeply.
       | 
       | If I can facilitate getting these emotionally insecure
       | individuals out of recruitment and management, assisting
       | developers and managers that want to produce _value_ to find each
       | other, it would be in opposition to many well peer-reviewed
       | publications. Boring publications.
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | My doctoral degree has required training in both Computer
         | Science and Social Science, and regularly interact with both
         | communities. Drawing on this, I feel that this comment is
         | unnecessarily partisan and divisive.
         | 
         | > 2) Mentioning the replication crisis in social science gets a
         | lot of the social science academics observably upset and
         | defensive.
         | 
         | The replication crisis is widely discussed in social sciences.
         | Nearly every major social science journal will have at least
         | one, likely many, editorials and articles on the crisis
         | tailored to their field. Maybe this is explicitely a Management
         | Studies thing? The field is relatively small and insular, and
         | so cannot be generalized to wider social science. And are your
         | experiences drawon from the community as a whole, or the
         | faculty in your department?
         | 
         | > 3) I have enjoyed my time spent with CS academics a lot more,
         | luckily have some interaction even now - the ones I have spoken
         | to seem to lack the ego-driven blind spots the social
         | scientists exhibit. The CS group seems to have a lot more fun
         | with their research.
         | 
         | Maybe this is just the local community of wherever you studied?
         | I've met equal parts ego-driven and chill people in both CS and
         | Social Science. A major concept in most social science fields
         | is sampling--I'd urge you to consider how representative the
         | people you are talking to actually are, and how your sample
         | might be biased from the global population. My prior is that
         | there would be little difference in personality, in aggregate,
         | between the fields.
         | 
         | > I.e. I have observed that even when a manager or leader wants
         | to hire developers, social science damaged managers and HR will
         | actively sabotage these efforts because they are still,
         | fundamentally, driven by Taylorist, control fetish concepts
         | (which they refuse to accept)
         | 
         | I mean, that's one possibility. The other is that hiring people
         | is difficult and expensive, and that credentials are a quick
         | and useful, if flawed, method of sorting through the pile.
         | 
         | And are most HR people really trained in Management? I honestly
         | don't know, but I doubt that the typical Psychology or
         | Sociology major, for instance, is going to know of, remember,
         | or consider using Taylorist management theory.
         | 
         | It definitely seems that you enjoyed your time in CS more than
         | your time in Management. That's great! CS is an important field
         | with lots of cool people. But generalizing this preference into
         | a wider philosophy that privileges CS at the expense of (all?)
         | social sciences is silly.
        
           | hndudette2 wrote:
           | Regarding the replication crisis, can I ask why we don't yet
           | have a central body to which scientists report their intended
           | experimental design, sample size and research hypothesis
           | before the experiment begins? Then we can eliminate
           | publication bias due to null results not being published
           | which is a big part of the replication crisis. The meta-
           | analyses only survey those studies that reported this ahead
           | of time and the scope of possible publication bias can be
           | quantified.
        
             | garden_hermit wrote:
             | These kinds of things exist, though the rate that they are
             | adopted varies widely.
             | 
             | In Psychology, for instance, there was discussion back in
             | 2015 about per-registration in the field [1]. Since then,
             | tools and repositories have been created to help facilitate
             | per-registration [2].
             | 
             | But again, they are not universally adopted. Some of this
             | is probably generational--academia is quite conservative,
             | and doesn't change quickly. A new generation will likely
             | use these tools more. Other times, fields are more insular
             | than others, and so such tools will take some time to
             | diffuse into their community. In the meantime though,
             | things have improved, even if only somewhat, across the
             | sciences.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.apa.org/science/about/psa/2015/08/pre-
             | registrati... [2] https://www.cos.io/initiatives/prereg
        
             | pmyteh wrote:
             | There are registration databases, but there are issues.
             | 
             | Who trawls the (now huge) database to find the registered
             | studies which never reported? In any case, that could
             | indicate a file drawer problem publication bias or simply
             | that the funding disappeared or a researcher decided not to
             | proceed.
             | 
             | How do you move from very spotty preregistration to
             | compulsory preregistration? It would probably take a
             | coordinated push from all the major funders. And they
             | haven't successfully moved to fully open access publication
             | in over a decade of trying, despite the obvious financial
             | gain to the non-publisher world of winning at _that_
             | coordination game.
             | 
             | How do you handle work on the margins of registerability?
             | Not all scientific work is testing hypotheses, some is
             | exploratory. Should a quantitative description be ruled out
             | if it wasn't registered? If so, how are reasonable
             | hypotheses for future work established? If not, you have to
             | be extra vigilant to stop people smuggling phrases that
             | imply confirmation into nominally exploratory work.
             | 
             | And the other problem with the replication crisis is that
             | even decently-planned, pre-registered, straightforward
             | studies can not replicate. Sometimes for reasonable reasons
             | (significance was actually by chance, some unanticipated
             | confounder interfered) and sometimes for thoroughly
             | blameworthy ones (rather than p-hacking you can just fudge
             | the data, or make 'accidental' programming errors).
             | 
             | So I'm all in favour of pre-registration, but it's not a
             | magic bullet.
        
               | hndudette2 wrote:
               | We both probably agree that parapsychology hasn't
               | demonstrated that psychic phenomenon is real, and yet
               | their various meta-analyses purport to show that it is.
               | The experimental design of the underlying studies is
               | quite good, so it must be publication bias. I couldn't
               | think of a better demonstration as to why preregistration
               | is a critical necessity, even if it is difficult to get
               | going.
               | 
               | All of your questions are very good ones however, and I
               | agree with your conclusion that it isn't going to be a
               | silver bullet.
               | 
               |  _Who trawls the (now huge) database_
               | 
               | Only the authors of the meta-analyses, as part of their
               | lit review. It's simply a criteria for inclusion into
               | meta-analysis.
               | 
               |  _How do you move from very spotty preregistration to
               | compulsory preregistration?_
               | 
               | Eventually, if meta-analyses only look at studies that
               | are preregistered, this would boost citation count for
               | preregistered studies and therefore incent scientists to
               | preregister since their careers are tied to citation
               | count. How to arrive at this end state is a bit of a
               | chicken and egg problem and requires a cultural shift, so
               | it'll be very difficult. But once the end state is
               | arrived at it should be sticky without needing to be
               | compulsory, since career incentives are aligned.
               | 
               |  _How do you handle work on the margins of
               | registerability?_
               | 
               | Preregistration is mostly helpful for research questions
               | that are amenable to statistical meta-analysis, i.e.
               | those questions where the hypotheses tested across papers
               | are sufficiently similar so the quantitative results can
               | be statistically combined and statistical significance &
               | clinical significance can be evaluated. I think
               | preregistration is mostly needed for these questions,
               | although it's probably helpful elsewhere too.
        
         | pmyteh wrote:
         | Attitudes towards the replication crisis seem to me to vary
         | between researchers in any given social science discipline.
         | Those (careless?) empirical researchers whose careers are being
         | retrospectively ripped apart are inevitably horrified (and
         | coming up with a huge range of arguments both reasonable and
         | unreasonable as to why they shouldn't) while theorists are
         | mostly happy and younger empiricists are taking up the
         | reproducability/better science challenge with some enthusiasm.
         | Likewise, attitudes to perfect citation vary wildly. I don't
         | care as long as it's vaguely consistent, which is a common (but
         | not universal) position in my sub-discipline.
         | 
         | I'm not sure how much of your experiences are specifically a
         | feature of management research rather than the social sciences
         | in general. I spent a bit of time studying management (and
         | being a manager, in pre-academic times), though now I'm a
         | computational political communication academic. Management
         | research is seen by the rest of us as a bit weird - a bit of an
         | outsider discipline, with different attitudes and surprisingly
         | little scholarly overlap. I wouldn't expect that many political
         | scientists or sociologists to be Taylorists, for example.
         | 
         | Publish or perish, boring papers, and problematic academic
         | management on the other hand - that is very familiar.
        
           | NotPavlovsDog wrote:
           | Interesting, thank you for commenting!
           | 
           | Popular management research does seem like an extra easy
           | target... I have had exposure to several social science
           | departments across continents, not just management, and those
           | members that could be described as "mainstream" are somewhat
           | lacking in reflexivity, with some exceptions. (When they are
           | critical, they stand out extra bright, like Alvesson,
           | Wilmott, Rowlinson)
           | 
           | But about management research. When a leading critical figure
           | in the field summarizes it as follows:
           | 
           |  _" Whilst there are plenty of theories in management, there
           | are no laws"_ [P.Griseri,as quoted by P. Morris in
           | "Reconstructing project management" ],
           | 
           | one could wonder if that state of affairs could perhaps be
           | explained by deeply ingrained subservience of management
           | research to industry [ as described by Alvesson and other
           | Critical Management Studies (CMS) practitioners].
           | 
           | As far as Taylorism, there may not be self-identification in
           | the field per se, but whether taylorism, puritanism or any
           | other -ism linked to a fundamental desire for subservience,
           | control and performance measurement as sound management
           | practice could be described as to run deep. ( A gem of a
           | paper is "The impact of Puritan ideology on aspects of
           | project management" by Whitty & Schultz )
           | 
           | I have been doing some preliminary experiments with applying
           | CMS to recruitment - a short summary could be "treating
           | developers with respect by providing necessary information
           | and establishing transparency in the job announcement
           | increases responses dramatically. Who knew!"
           | 
           | Another interest of mine lies in sociophysics, which I have a
           | huge reading list to catch up on. Did you have any
           | sociophysics topics that attracted your interest in relation
           | to political communication?
        
             | pmyteh wrote:
             | I had to look up the word 'sociophysics', which isn't used
             | in my part of the discipline, so probably not! There are a
             | lot of physics-derived tools that are coming into
             | increasing use, though. Half of social network analysis
             | seems to come from sociology, and the other half (the
             | highly computational part, in the main) from physics. I've
             | done bits of network analysis (one of my better-recieved
             | recent papers was applying network partitioning to the
             | problem of identifying the edges of news 'stories' in sets
             | of articles) but I do most of my stuff in the text analysis
             | space where NLP/topic modelling/matrix factorisation stuff
             | is making most of the running, and that's mostly drawing
             | from CS rather than physics.
        
               | NotPavlovsDog wrote:
               | Sociophysics has not been met with a wide welcome in
               | management studies, perhaps due to its approach to proof.
               | It requires a lot more work than popular hand-waving. It
               | will be interesting to see whether physics-derived tools
               | and approaches will lead to improvement in social studies
               | in regards to current critical concerns.
               | 
               | It is unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you
               | look at it) a far-away in the future area for me, as just
               | applying viewpoints outside of the mainstream to
               | experimental research in management has a lot of low-
               | hanging fruit with potentially significant impact.
               | 
               | That could be one of the benefits of the humanities
               | aspect of management studies, it is well justified
               | (though not popular) to take a humanitarian (and thus
               | biased) stance towards improving the well-being of
               | employees.
        
       | amirkdv wrote:
       | I can't help but but think a universal basic income, at least in
       | societies that can afford it, would dramatically change the
       | entrenched misalignment that causes this.
       | 
       | The signal/noise issue is real but as others have noted not the
       | most concerning. The main structural problem IMO is that all the
       | structures that support scientific research (academic evaluation,
       | university admin, granting agencies, publishing industry, etc.)
       | are all re-enforcing untenable illusions. A few benefit immensely
       | from this, but there are many who have the incentive to change,
       | yet they are cornered by their economic circumstances to play
       | along.
        
       | pelasaco wrote:
       | I have the impression that yes the papers are getting boring, and
       | peer-review is one of problems, however i have it as side effect.
       | The main problem, IMO, is Research as profession, where the
       | researcher is just interested in finish his/her paper, to get it
       | published, to be able to get a next grant and keep researching
       | about a topic that he/she is not really passionate about. The
       | comparison with Einstein is therefore unfair. For big part of the
       | researchers, science is just a job.
        
         | bjornsing wrote:
         | Yes. And when "it's just a job" people dominate it sets the
         | culture, and makes Einstein's life very difficult / improbable.
        
       | bonoboTP wrote:
       | Stepping back a bit, I feel the argument is analogous to how
       | music is becoming more mainstream and generic, how casual gamers
       | "corrupt" the art form of gaming, how clickbait and stupit stuff
       | is overshadowing lovingly curated independent websites, eternal
       | September etc.
       | 
       | One answer to all these propositions is that the valuable stuff
       | is still there, you just have an _additional_ flood of mediocre
       | boring predictable stuff. You can still find enough indie music
       | and games and movies to spend all your free time on.
       | 
       | Similarly, if you know where to look and whose papers to watch
       | out for, you can read more interesting stuff. The existence of
       | more bullshit makes the filtering somewhat more effort, but it's
       | bearable.
       | 
       | Most papers are never deeply read anyway, outside of the
       | reviewers. Even citations don't mean someone really read the
       | paper in depth.
       | 
       | So, most mediocre, boring papers get ignored.
       | 
       | It's an illusion to expect that every researcher can pump out
       | multiple really interesting non-boring papers every year. So we
       | pretend. We write, we cite, we present, overiflate, overpromise
       | etc. It must look like there is steady hard noble work and toil.
       | It's like a ritual. The scientists are writing all these papers
       | so tax payers can sleep well that their money is paid for hard
       | work.
        
         | timkam wrote:
         | I largely agree, but we do not write all these papers "so tax
         | payers can sleep". We write these papers because the
         | administration incentivizes us to get the highest profile
         | publications with the lowest effort possible. In relatively
         | creative fields (i.e., much of computer science), this can even
         | mean to make friends in the community and co-author papers with
         | them without being the one who does any of the hard work. (In
         | other sciences, it means being the one who pulls in the money,
         | as far as I understand.)
         | 
         | A related problem I see is that we treat all papers the same:
         | position (opinion) papers, reviews & surveys, and "hard"
         | results (relevant proofs, strong empirical results, software
         | artifacts that are deployed at scale in practice etc.). As the
         | blog post somewhat suggests, the administration should
         | primarily ask us to summarize these results when assessing
         | whether we are worthy of funding and faculty positions; sure,
         | it takes more effort, but I think it is possible.
        
           | nextos wrote:
           | Exactly, the big issue is that paper counts have become the
           | dominant metric. And like with all structures dominated by a
           | single metric, it's easy to game the system.
           | 
           | Most professors I have worked with in experimental sciences
           | are completely disconnected from actual research. They just
           | optimize for hiring hordes of people to churn out tons of
           | mediocre papers, which they don't care about. I came from
           | theoretical CS & math, so this was really shocking.
           | 
           | It's really depressing and it needs to change. Academia is
           | now in a phase similar to that of an innovative startup which
           | has been filled in with many middle managers, and has turned
           | into a corporate monstrosity.
        
             | cbozeman wrote:
             | Its TPS reports. That what it is. And until academia gets
             | their own Bobs to ask academia's Lumbergh, "Yeah, Academia,
             | lemme ask yah... real quick question here... how much time
             | wouldja say yah spend each week dealing with these papers?"
        
             | retrac wrote:
             | "Paper count" is about as reliable a metric as "lines of
             | code". Publish or die is a toxic mentality in academia and
             | you are certainly not the first to have observed this,
             | sadly.
        
               | xmprt wrote:
               | I'm not sure if those two fields are comparable. In
               | software engineering, at least there's usually a dollar
               | value impact for the code you write. In research, the
               | impact isn't as tangible and probably won't be known for
               | years.
        
               | throwawaygh wrote:
               | _> In research, the impact isn 't as tangible and
               | probably won't be known for years._
               | 
               | This still describes a lot of software engineering.
        
               | unishark wrote:
               | It's pretty outdated. In research schools you need to win
               | funding or die nowadays.
               | 
               | And while publications do help you, say in getting hired
               | and promotions, your publications are dug into pretty
               | deeply. They don't want to be tricked into hiring someone
               | useless who can crank out fluff but can't win a grant.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | derbOac wrote:
               | This is completely true -- something that many outside of
               | academics don't understand -- but I'm not sure it really
               | makes the situation any better. In a lot of ways it just
               | kicks the problems down the road.
               | 
               | By whatever metric you use, it's really about the
               | checklist rather than substance. And the checklists are
               | based on stereotypes, and get gamed.
        
               | drran wrote:
               | Maybe, software solutions can be applied to academia.
               | 
               | In software, we have "source code distributions", such as
               | Debian, Fedora, Gentoo, Arch, Red Hat, SUSE, etc. They
               | are collections of mostly a same free software, with
               | minor differences, but with different policies and
               | purpose. Some are conservative collections of proven
               | software, others are bleeding edge, etc.
               | 
               | IMHO, someone should start to collect papers, which are
               | worth reading, and _keep this collection up to date_ ,
               | with fixes to papers (AKA as patches in software), with
               | one paper per topic, with ready to use math models and
               | simulations, with in software tests for models, etc.
        
             | andi999 wrote:
             | Maybe you didn't mean it, but 'gaming the system' sounds
             | bad. While I agree the outcome is bad, I think when your
             | boss tells you to publish 10 paper per year and you do
             | that, that this cannot be called 'gaming the system'
        
             | jhoechtl wrote:
             | > It's really depressing and it needs to change.
             | 
             | It has been like that since ten years and nothing has
             | changed since then. People find out just about the same as
             | you did but nothing changes. It such a convenient metric it
             | will stay for much longer.
        
           | anonymousDan wrote:
           | Regarding your second paragraph, I don't think this is the
           | case in the UK at least, where academics are judged according
           | to the REF criteria.
        
           | unishark wrote:
           | Reviews are especially bad. You can tell which people work at
           | schools where citations count in their pay (and reviews are
           | allowed in citation counts) by the ratio of reviews to
           | original research papers they write. Some schools/govts
           | really need to wise up.
           | 
           | I think of it as a kind of predatory or scavenger behavior.
           | They basically steal the citations from the papers they are
           | reviewing in return for a small effort in helping us with
           | information retrieval. We might as well just cite google and
           | elsevier. Ideally, citations should pass through them somehow
           | and get applied to the original sources who did the hard
           | work.
        
             | gradstudent wrote:
             | It's true that some review papers are shallow but it's
             | pretty cynical to paint all contributions of this type with
             | the same brush. In my experience, good review papers are
             | more than summaries. They can connect separate lines of
             | research for example, compare and contrast different ideas
             | and they can re-contextaulise a body of research to give a
             | broader picture and reveal new and interesting directions.
             | These papers are hard to write well and take a long time.
             | Even more so in cases where empirical work has been
             | undertaken so as to make direct comparisons and provide
             | reference implementations.
             | 
             | Even the summary papers can be useful. On particularly
             | active problems there can be dozens of papers per year.
             | Sorting out wheat from chaff by highlighting notable works,
             | and pointing out trends in published research, is again a
             | genuine contribution, and helpful for the scientific
             | community.
        
               | unishark wrote:
               | Of course they are useful, as is google scholar and the
               | search field in various journals. Or some blog that tells
               | you whats was new in the recent conference. That doesn't
               | mean they deserve to be cited over the real sources. They
               | are cited as a crutch: "go here for a more detailed list
               | of sources". The little meta-analysis they do doesn't
               | explain most of the citations they get.
        
               | bonoboTP wrote:
               | Hard disagree. We need to incentivized _more_ curation,
               | distillation, summarization, comparing /contrasting,
               | systematizing, categorizing approaches along various
               | axes, meta analyses etc., not less.
               | 
               | These are often very valuable, more so than yet another
               | 1% improvement paper that never gets reproduced.
               | 
               | Review papers don't steal citations. These are cited from
               | more distant literature so readers can familiarize
               | themselves with the topic. Those wouldn't cite all the
               | papers mentioned in the review individually.
               | 
               | But as a broader point, yeah, maybe something like
               | PageRank could be used to "pass on" the citation Ina
               | sense.
        
               | unishark wrote:
               | > These are often very valuable, more so than yet another
               | 1% improvement paper that never gets reproduced.
               | 
               | It's not an either-or.
               | 
               | And one should always read and accurately describe the
               | contents of what you cite, meaning of course you wouldn't
               | cite everything in a review paper directly. Only that
               | which is relevant.
               | 
               | Suppose we count both separately, research citations and
               | review citations, the latter for your great review papers
               | or even if people just want to reference the lit review
               | section of your research paper. What would happen to the
               | incentive? I suggest that reviews would be less
               | incentivized as people would primarily be concerned with
               | rating researchers according to their research citations.
               | Just like no one cares about your textbook sales, popular
               | though it may be for introductory uses. This would imply
               | reviews were not "honest" citations but are done to hack
               | the metric.
        
               | bonoboTP wrote:
               | People _should_ care about textbooks. I think it 's
               | misguided to think that real scientific value lies only
               | in original research.
        
               | unishark wrote:
               | Well you guys are pulling me to an extreme position here.
               | Of course I love good textbooks too. And review journals
               | like signal processing magazine are my favorites. I'm
               | sure many people do them for great reasons too. Let's not
               | forget that academics teach too, and there are academics
               | and colleges that are entirely devoted to teaching, not
               | research. People are free to prefer them more if they
               | like. However, when it comes to research metrics, the
               | person who did the research deserves the credit for it.
               | Even if we subtract the citations for obvious review
               | papers (which is commonly done) there is still the lost
               | citations by the original researchers.
               | 
               | Reviews also cause other devious problems, like journals
               | hacking their own impact factors. And don't forget the
               | Matthew principle (aka rich get richer) whereby only big-
               | shot researchers can get invited to have their reviews
               | published in high-impact journals, warping the network
               | effects to their favor even more.
        
         | Ericson2314 wrote:
         | Inevitable of not, this has real costs, in that that government
         | will eventually turn off the gravy train and the "good" and
         | "bad" research alike will be negatively impacted.
         | 
         | In other words, academia is sowing the seeds of its own demise,
         | and with it, the official institutional pinnacle of our culture
         | [please don't wince too hard when reading that!].
         | 
         | ----
         | 
         | The solution i think is less research but more library work.
         | See https://blog.khinsen.net/posts/2020/07/08/the-landscapes-
         | of-... and https://hapgood.us/2015/10/17/the-garden-and-the-
         | stream-a-te... which it cites.
         | 
         | The amount of work library work we are not doing is just
         | staggering. Consider these claims:
         | 
         | - There should be an accredited-author-ornly "kernel wikipedia"
         | which the main one can choose to incorporate, almost like
         | release vs staging branches.
         | 
         | - Different subfield way wish to keep their own intentionally
         | biased corpuses, like https://ncatlab.org/nlab/
         | 
         | - After 6 months, virtually no one should have to read the
         | original research article, because the librarian core will have
         | incorporated it's results claims (however controversial) into
         | the appropriate articles
         | 
         | - Textbooks / "knowledge bootstrap plans" should be
         | continuously updated from the encyclopedia, not unlike how
         | bootstrapping is managed in a package repo
         | 
         | - Librarians do the work, but also adjudicate disputes, as
         | researchers will be naturally incentivized to contest how their
         | work is incorporated as that is the primary way it is consumed.
        
           | bonoboTP wrote:
           | Scholarpedia is similar as well.
           | 
           | I agree there is not enough library work and there is too
           | much focus on the 4-15 page publication format. This amount
           | is often not enough to fully flesh out an idea or to present
           | something non-incremental. Rather, people tend to chunk up
           | work, called salami publishing.
           | 
           | Now, sure doctoral theses also exist but the vast majority of
           | research is presented in about 4-15 pages.
           | 
           | But I disagree that after 6 months everything should be
           | integrated into other summary work.
           | 
           | Most published research is not worthy of being integrated
           | into other work and 6 months are jot enough to decide. Most
           | papers are forgotten and rightfully so. Publication doesn't
           | mean it's correct or worthy of eternal remembrance. It just
           | means that a scientist wants to share a finding with the
           | research community. It's not established knowledge yet. Only
           | when it is actually adopted and used successfully by the
           | community, will it be part of established shared knowledge.
           | After some years such key ideas do get written into
           | textbooks.
        
           | MaxBarraclough wrote:
           | > There should be an accredited-author-ornly "kernel
           | wikipedia"
           | 
           | This is roughly what the _Citizendium_ project was aiming
           | for. Sadly it seems it 's not doing well these days.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizendium
           | 
           | https://en.citizendium.org/wiki/Citizendium
        
             | Ericson2314 wrote:
             | Exactly! The fact of the matter is Accreditation and the
             | State go hand-in-hand. You can go full anarchism like
             | Wikipedia (and thats' great!) but if you want something a
             | bit more curated, a bit more "official", you need officers
             | (by the etymology even!) and you need funding, i.e. state
             | support.
        
           | craftinator wrote:
           | > In other words, academia is sowing the seeds of its own
           | demise
           | 
           | This is first order thinking. Yes, if an increasingly large
           | quantity of academic research is becoming bullshit,
           | eventually the ratio of good to bad research will reach an
           | inflection point where policy will be set that reduces
           | research funding.
           | 
           | This reduction in funding will have many effects, but the
           | largest will be that as funding becomes a scarce resource, a
           | higher curation of both researchers and topics will come into
           | effect. There will be less research and papers overall, but
           | the largest decrease in research will be those that are
           | bullshit.
           | 
           | Finally, as more and more research will be fruitful and
           | useful, and fewer and fewer bullshit papers are published, an
           | inflection point will be reached. There will be more funding
           | allocated to these exciting new areas of study, and more
           | research will happen. Of course, with funding no longer a
           | scarce resource, less curation will occur, and a few more
           | bullshit papers will be published... And the cycle will have
           | advanced one wavelength.
           | 
           | It's been happening for years, centuries, as a basic economic
           | cycle, and looks something like this: _/T\\_/T\\_/T\
        
             | Ericson2314 wrote:
             | I'm thinking higher-order too, but I subscribe to the idea
             | at the start of
             | https://pedestrianobservations.com/2020/08/29/recession-
             | and-...
             | 
             | > Question. In what ways can a recession be useful for
             | forcing inefficient public-sector agencies to lay off
             | redundant workers and reduce bloat?
             | 
             | > Answer. None.
             | 
             | And keep in mind that academia might as well be considered
             | public sector, but the idea transcends to most large-
             | scale/loosely-planned cost cutting for efficiency gain
             | schemes.
             | 
             | Your starting point is a lot on individual virtue, and bad
             | apples crowding out the good. I don't disagree that some
             | researches are better and some are worse, but I think that
             | any "cure" is going to be gamed and worse than the disease.
             | 
             | > but the largest will be that as funding becomes a scarce
             | resource, a higher curation of both researchers and topics
             | will come into effect
             | 
             | Do you have any evidence of this? I disagree in the
             | strongest of terms. By my reckoning, curation,
             | preventation, and other "forsight-drive" work is
             | persistently undervalue by our society and economy. The
             | nastiness that will accompany shrinking funding as research
             | groups fight for _short-term_ survival will only make that
             | worse.
             | 
             | > but the largest decrease in research will be those that
             | are bullshit
             | 
             | Why would those who are the best at gaming incentives now
             | loose that skill?
             | 
             | > It's been happening for years, centuries, as a basic
             | economic cycle, and looks something like this:
             | _/T\\_/T\\_/T\
             | 
             | So after centuries of Byzantine decline, there is new group
             | of lean and mean Greek Constantinopolitan bureaucrats?
             | 
             | After the Spain grew rich on New World bullion and then
             | poor with a dearth of industrialization there is a new
             | generation of hyper-efficient factories putting Germany to
             | shame?
             | 
             | I dunno what history you are reading, but the good actors
             | never outlive the broken system and get the last laugh in
             | mine.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | "Science advances one funeral at a time"
         | 
         | -- paraphrased from Max Planck
        
         | agumonkey wrote:
         | > So we pretend. We write, we cite, we present, overiflate,
         | overpromise etc.
         | 
         | > so tax payers can sleep well that their money is paid for
         | hard work.
         | 
         | It's a bit contradictory.
         | 
         | I won't go into scandalized rant because it's useless, and
         | there's no point shouting against the universe from a bedroom
         | chair. Still it's a bit disheartening. I wish the scientific
         | world could reinvigorate and pump some spark back into the
         | field.
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | Or even more reductionist there are only a finite amount of
         | talented and smart people ever in history doing truely new and
         | interesting stuff.
         | 
         | It's just the nature of the game. You can't just turn a dial
         | and add more talent.
         | 
         | Although a bit off topic there are some authoritarian nation
         | states who tried to do this by social engineering. Soviet Union
         | made being an engineer a common place job title and China is
         | trying to make tons of super smart kids at STEM. But we all
         | know there is more to being smart than forcing kids to go down
         | certain academic route and get top end scores (you know the
         | whole creative side and capacity for original works to be
         | created).
         | 
         | The democratic approach still seems to be the winner (not just
         | due to brain). It's as I mention always going to be a small
         | minority who do great things. That doesn't scale up
         | artificially.
        
           | vosper wrote:
           | > Or even more reductionist there are only a finite amount of
           | talented and smart people ever in history doing truely new
           | and interesting stuff. It's just the nature of the game. You
           | can't just turn a dial and add more talent.
           | 
           | It's true that we can't turn a dial, but there must be a vast
           | amount of human potential that goes unused every day, because
           | people are born in impoverished countries, or suffer
           | discrimination due to gender or race or something else, get
           | sick with a preventable disease, or whatever other thing
           | denies them the opportunity to make the most of themselves.
           | 
           | This is probably actually the norm in the world, not the
           | exception.
           | 
           | So I think there's rather a lot we could do as a species (or
           | within individual countries) to give people opportunities and
           | make sure potential for progress is realised
        
           | LamaOfRuin wrote:
           | Granting your premise (which I don't personally think is
           | accurate): currently every country in the world squanders a
           | massive amount of talent by not providing opportunity, even
           | starting at the most basic level of universal food security
           | and healthcare. You may not be able to infinitely turn a dial
           | and add more talent (or productive research/innovation), but
           | that doesn't mean our many dials are anywhere near their
           | maximum levels either.
        
           | sigotirandolas wrote:
           | Another closely related possibility is that a lot of
           | processes in science are inherently serial, i.e. they can't
           | scale with the number of researchers, because they require
           | slowly integrating information and making consecutive steps
           | of progress.
           | 
           | Maybe after say, quantum computers are available, it takes
           | around 25 years for a team of researchers to slowly make
           | progress and integrate information until they find a killer
           | application. Funding 25 teams of researchers may make them
           | pump out papers 25x faster, but they aren't going to find the
           | killer application in 1 year.
        
           | mattkrause wrote:
           | > You can't just turn a dial and add more talent.
           | 
           | I'm not sure I agree there. It's notoriously hard to get/keep
           | a research position, especially a) in academia and b) outside
           | CS. There are a decent number of graduate student slots, some
           | postdocs, and then you're thrown into the thunder dome.
           | 
           | The competition itself--and the resulting uncertainty--chases
           | a lot of people into other careers. The people in my grad
           | school cohort who "left" research were just as smart and
           | often just as successful (in terms of papers, etc) as those
           | that stayed.
           | 
           | It's not hard to imagine some policy tweaks that could have
           | kept some of them in research.
        
             | derbOac wrote:
             | >The people in my grad school cohort who "left" research
             | were just as smart and often just as successful (in terms
             | of papers, etc) as those that stayed.
             | 
             | There's research to support that actually:
             | 
             | https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/12/11/new-study-
             | say...
             | 
             | Buried in that paper they basically show the hazard rate
             | for exiting academics is sort of uncorrelated with metrics
             | like citation rate etc.
        
         | abathur wrote:
         | I think I agree with a large chunk of this: there are
         | inevitably triage/discovery problems as the number of
         | things/options go up.
         | 
         | The cost of evaluating each remains fairly constant, and at
         | some point production outstrips the ability of even extremely-
         | interested/dedicated individuals to have a good handle on it
         | all. Beyond this point, you either need organized collective
         | effort (and trust) to efficiently distribute the work of
         | keeping up (and synthesize the results) or the larger community
         | will be wasting ever-increasing slices of potential energy to
         | extract increasingly less knowledge of the scope of activity.
         | 
         | But there's a difference between simple volume growth for good
         | reasons (i.e., people chasing incentives that are aligned at
         | multiple levels of society), and volume growth caused by people
         | chasing incentives that are misaligned at one or more points up
         | the stack.
         | 
         | If the researchers are spending their time on things even they
         | find boring _because Goodhart 's law_, I think it is important
         | to recognize it and try to undo the misaligned incentives.
         | They're not only externalizing a cost on their entire field of
         | knowledge--but we're also collectively suffering some ill-
         | defined opportunity cost of whatever it was they would've spent
         | their time on if they were following curiosity.
        
         | smitty1e wrote:
         | Rick Beato rails against gridding and autotune in music over on
         | YouTube.
         | 
         | My wife, a health outcomes researcher, points out that the
         | expectation is that every little publishable bit be kicked out
         | the door for a pharma project.
         | 
         | Historically, they would have dropped a single summary result
         | at the end of the effort.
         | 
         | Now, she's trying to "autotune" the neutral or even negative
         | results. Nominally in the name of "transparency".
         | 
         | If this is true, the need is a research Adele to come along and
         | shame the riff-raff with sheer natural brilliance.
        
           | Sophistifunk wrote:
           | We all know autotune, but what's "gridding"?
        
             | 1986 wrote:
             | I'm guessing this means quantization of a rhythm.
        
               | redis_mlc wrote:
               | Correct, it's aligning played musical notes to a bar
               | (measure) on a computer screen.
               | 
               | Then almost always, a clone tool is used to repeat that
               | one bar identically dozens of times.
               | 
               | So you lose most of the organic nature of music in a
               | mechanical fashion.
        
               | smitty1e wrote:
               | Who needs humanity when you can have mathematical
               | perfection?
               | 
               | Beside humans?
        
         | riedel wrote:
         | In the line of your comment about tax payers money: one of the
         | biggest issues IMHO is the disfunctional "market" here because
         | most of the work is paid easily by the tax payer . Particularly
         | publishers are mostly not paying for reviews but are paid for
         | journal and conferences largely on quantity (with few noble
         | exceptions). The effect for a long time now was an ever
         | increasing number of conferences (peer reviewed proceedings
         | still make a large share in CS) and journals. What is actually
         | worse IMHO, the review request get more and more and are
         | largely boring. So you really have to attract the attention of
         | the reviewer to not trigger the reflex of looking for reasons
         | to reject (or worse the opposite, which may account to the same
         | because there are always other reviewers, so its a matter of
         | luck who gets assigned)
         | 
         | I think better structures are needed that actually incentivise
         | good reviews. This would lead to better papers, too. There are
         | multiple options for this. Maybe it is simply time to see
         | reviews as publications themselves and say goodbye to flawed
         | blinded review process. Another thing would be to take the
         | publishers out of the game. Even IEEE and ACM have become
         | largely a playing field for power politics between the US,
         | China and Europe . I think we could do better and be more
         | inclusive here. Publishing reviews and rejected work would
         | further make meta studies much more reliable removing also bias
         | towards positive results (who actually wants to hear about
         | easily replicatable negative results at a conference)
        
         | azhenley wrote:
         | Are papers getting more boring or does the reader just find
         | less novels things to read as they read more and more? Maybe
         | the reader is bored of the field in general. The 500th time you
         | do anything isn't as exciting as the 5th time.
         | 
         | On another note, why does everything have to be exciting? Small
         | incremental improvements over the years is what I aim for.
        
         | patrec wrote:
         | > One answer to all these propositions is that the valuable
         | stuff is still there
         | 
         | I don't understand the popularity of this argument. Whilst
         | someone might (theoretically) have written the Great American
         | Novel in his or her basement unbeknownst to pretty much anyone,
         | a lot of art is fairly resource intensive and thus you can say
         | with extremely high confidence that's its not being produced
         | and the fault lies not with people not looking hard enough.
         | Same with research and journalism.
        
           | Siira wrote:
           | In games at least, I feel that more good games are being
           | produced.
        
         | Bakary wrote:
         | >It's an illusion to expect that every researcher can pump out
         | multiple really interesting non-boring papers every year. So we
         | pretend. We write, we cite, we present, overiflate, overpromise
         | etc. It must look like there is steady hard noble work and
         | toil. It's like a ritual. The scientists are writing all these
         | papers so tax payers can sleep well that their money is paid
         | for hard work.
         | 
         | The flip-side to this is that there is a glut of moderately
         | motivated scientists and PhD candidates. As a result, the
         | demand for conferences and citations is self-sustaining to meet
         | the expectations of millions of people wanting to enter the
         | academic world without a clear plan beyond joining the world
         | itself.
         | 
         | It's as though the English-major-to-professor cycle has also
         | become a reality in the hard sciences.
        
           | danielheath wrote:
           | Perhaps it varies by specialty/region, but I have a good
           | friend in the sciences here in Australia; funding has dried
           | right up.
           | 
           | This year, less than 10% of NHMRC grant applications got
           | approved, and of the ones approved most spent nearly as much
           | time on grant applications as they did on the real work.
           | Anyone who is only moderately motivated has retrained,
           | because working for low pay half of the year is not appealing
           | to anyone who can pass any doctorate program.
           | 
           | Even if you took the position that only the good ones are
           | getting funded, spending 50% of your 'good' researchers time
           | is a tragic waste of human ability.
        
           | semi-extrinsic wrote:
           | In 1916, J.J. Thomson (as in Thomson scattering; discoverer
           | of the electron) said it perfectly [1]:
           | 
           | "If you pay a man a salary for doing research, he and you
           | will want to have something to point to at the end of the
           | year to show that the money has not been wasted. In promising
           | work of the highest class, however, results do not come in
           | this regular fashion, in fact years may pass without any
           | tangible result being obtained, and the position of the paid
           | worker would be very embarrassing and he would naturally take
           | to work on a lower, or at any rate a different plane where he
           | could be sure of getting year by year tangible results which
           | would justify his salary. The position is this: You want one
           | kind of research, but, if you pay a man to do it, it will
           | drive him to research of a different kind. The only thing to
           | do is to pay him for doing something else and give him enough
           | leisure to do research for the love of it."
           | 
           | [1] https://archive.org/details/b29932208 - see pages
           | 198-200, ref HN comment:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21388715
        
             | Bakary wrote:
             | I was thinking more along the lines of people who are not
             | suited to do research in the first place. This will either
             | be those who join the academic world out of inertia
             | following their educational path or class/cultural
             | pressure, or those who dislike the general labor market and
             | want to enter the academic world due to its
             | particularities.
             | 
             | On a speculative note: I believe it's yet another argument
             | in favor of UBI
        
               | derbOac wrote:
               | I kinda would suggest the problem in some ways is the
               | opposite, that even people who are well-suited to what
               | academics should be are being driven out.
               | 
               | It's such a mess at the moment that it's not really
               | possible to continue out of inertia. Even if you're well-
               | suited to research and discovery at some level, and
               | motivated, it's a soul-crushing experience because at
               | every step you're incentivized toward something else.
        
               | pdfernhout wrote:
               | Here is a 1994 essay (also given as testimony to the US
               | Congress) on part of of why it is a mess, from Dr. David
               | Goostein (then vice-provost at Caltech):
               | http://www.its.caltech.edu/~dg/crunch_art.html
               | 
               | In that essay, Prof. Goodstein explains how academic had
               | been growing exponentially for decades since WWII, with
               | each PhD giving birth to another litter of fifteen PhDs
               | (my phrasing...), until finally that exponential process
               | began to hit limits. That set of changes from the ending
               | of the exponential growth in academia beginning around
               | the 1970, leading to a break down of peer review and lots
               | of other issues.
               | 
               | That's also part of why those of us (like me) who got
               | honest well-meant advice from extremely successful
               | academics in the 1980s or later about the value of a PhD
               | and a career in academia were misled, even though that
               | advice had worked for the advice giver. Freeman Dyson, by
               | contrast, tried to steer bright people (including me)
               | away from PhDs even in the 1980s -- having an intuition
               | for this sort of thing. Wish I had listened to him more.
               | :-)
               | 
               | Also related by Philip Greenspun from 2006 (later
               | updated), on "Women in Science" but which also applies
               | more broadly and is a good description of the
               | consequences of the situation Goodstein described in
               | 1994: http://philip.greenspun.com/careers/women-in-
               | science "This is how things are likely to go for the
               | smartest kid you sat next to in college. He got into
               | Stanford for graduate school. He got a postdoc at MIT.
               | His experiment worked out and he was therefore fortunate
               | to land a job at University of California, Irvine. But at
               | the end of the day, his research wasn't quite interesting
               | or topical enough that the university wanted to commit to
               | paying him a salary for the rest of his life. He is now
               | 44 years old, with a family to feed, and looking for job
               | with a "second rate has-been" label on his forehead. Why
               | then, does anyone think that science is a sufficiently
               | good career that people should debate who is privileged
               | enough to work at it? Sample bias. ... A good career is
               | one that pays well, in which you have a broad choice of
               | full-time and part-time jobs, in which there is some sort
               | of barrier to entry so that you won't have to compete
               | with a lot of other applicants, in which there are good
               | jobs in every part of the country and internationally,
               | and in which you can enjoy job security in middle age and
               | not be driven out by young people willing to work 100
               | hours per week. How closely does academic science match
               | these criteria? I took a 17-year-old Argentine girl on a
               | tour of the M.I.T. campus. She had no idea what she
               | wanted to do with her life, so maybe this was a good time
               | to show her the possibilities in female nerddom. While
               | walking around, we ran into a woman who recently
               | completed a Ph.D. in Aero/Astro, probably the most
               | rigorous engineering department at MIT. What did the
               | woman engineer say to the 17-year-old? "I'm not sure if
               | I'll be able to get any job at all. There are only about
               | 10 universities that hire people in my area and the last
               | one to have a job opening had more than 800 applicants."
               | And that's engineering, which, thanks to its reputation
               | for dullness and the demand from industrial employers,
               | has a lot less competition for jobs than in science. What
               | about personal experience? The women that I know who have
               | the IQ, education, and drive to make it as professors at
               | top schools are, by and large, working as professionals
               | and making 2.5-5X what a university professor makes and
               | they do not subject themselves to the risk of being
               | fired. With their extra income, they invest in child care
               | resources and help around the house so that they are able
               | to have kids while continuing to ascend in their careers.
               | The women I know who are university professors, by and
               | large, are unmarried and childless. By the time they get
               | tenure, they are on the verge of infertility. ... I've
               | taught a fair number of women students in electrical
               | engineering and computer science classes over the years.
               | I can give you a list of the ones who had the best heads
               | on their shoulders and were the most thoughtful about
               | planning out the rest of their lives. Their names are on
               | files in my "medical school recommendations" directory.
               | ..."
               | 
               | Anyway, that's all part of why I support a UBI. Give
               | everyone enough money to live as a perpetual graduate
               | student (without publishing and without becoming a
               | "Disciplined Mind" as the name of a book by Jeff Schmidt
               | on academic perils) and some of them will, which will
               | eventually remake academia in a healthier way (including
               | taking more chances on small-scale but far reaching basic
               | research, whether towards cold fusion, quantum
               | teleportation, new computer languages, new materials, new
               | batteries, new ways of thinking, new communications
               | patterns, new ways of conflict resolution, or whatever).
               | If for that reason _alone_ the USA should invest in a
               | Universal Basic Income.
        
               | frongpik wrote:
               | I'd assign scientists a "pension" every time they make a
               | worthy discovery. That pension would be a monthly payment
               | of a fixed dollar amount, it would be inalienable and
               | paid for the rest of the scientist's life regardless of
               | other achievements. Publishing a minor, but worthy, paper
               | would give a 100 usd/month grant. Getting a Nobel prize
               | would give, say, 1 million a year. However the deflation
               | would gradually erase value of the grants.
        
               | seotut2 wrote:
               | How would that fix the actual problem? And how do you
               | judge what is a worthy discovery and what isn't?
               | 
               | As parent said, UBI would probably fix the incentive
               | scheme, your solution wouldn't. You need to decouple the
               | reward from the result so that research is done out of
               | sheer curiosity and love of science.
        
               | andi999 wrote:
               | You cant decouple this (fully) with UBI. Only a little
               | research is done at a desk, a lot need equipment,
               | sometimes very expensive. With UBI you just get the time
               | but not the stuff.
        
             | andi999 wrote:
             | This is a great quote. Thinking of Einstein working at the
             | patent office...
        
             | roenxi wrote:
             | I basically mirror Thomson's opinion but there is are other
             | frames on the thinking. Eg, as paying someone to
             | demonstrate a deep understanding of a topic and articulate
             | the uncertainties. That is different from traditional
             | research because they aren't being asked to do anything
             | exactly new. But in practice that is what I think the
             | better researchers actually do.
             | 
             | Maybe there is a clue in the name "re-search".
             | Epistemologically I don't think it is possible to set out
             | to discover something that isn't already known to exist, so
             | the justification for paying people would best be for
             | evidence that they were searching rather than if they find
             | something.
        
         | barrkel wrote:
         | This is a bit off-topic to papers, but perhaps there's an
         | angle.
         | 
         |  _One answer to all these propositions is that the valuable
         | stuff is still there, you just have an additional flood of
         | mediocre boring predictable stuff._
         | 
         | I don't think this is true for most things with a mass market.
         | I think products which have efficiencies of scale - or low
         | marginal costs of reproduction - suck up more capital, which
         | raises certain basic levels of standards and polish and
         | marketing, but also greatly increases capital risk and thus
         | reduces investor risk appetite for product novelty. These mass
         | market products starve the mid-market of attention, which makes
         | the mid-market less capital efficient, which means the mid-
         | market needs to get cheaper and cheaper, lose polish, until
         | it's less attractive to the mass market of consumers, and so on
         | in a spiral until a certain spartan rawness becomes its own
         | aesthetic - indie games, indie films, indie music.
         | 
         | I think there's a concrete example which demonstrates the
         | actual absence of that long tail of interesting content, and
         | not just that it's harder to find: blogs.
         | 
         | Blogs were great in the mid 2000s. The market did two things:
         | it matured - the best blogs got more mindshare and turned into
         | something closer to media organizations, much more capital
         | intensive with full time paid writers, while and Facebook and
         | Twitter sucked up the mass market of newsfeed consumers, both
         | on the producer and consumer side, making it easier to produce
         | low-value inanities and easier to consume tidbits from
         | celebrities. This sucked the air of attention from blogs; being
         | long-form, they were too hard to write and too long to read;
         | and being unpaid, they didn't have slick editors or snazzy
         | design. So a lot of them shrivelled up. There are still niche
         | blogs, plenty of them, but a _lot_ fewer - and we can track
         | this loss, because we have (or had) them in our newsreaders.
        
           | unishark wrote:
           | The problem with research is similar but even deeper.
           | Researchers are supposed to show feasibility or existence of
           | some result, then applied scientists and engineers take this
           | off into industry or elsewhere to build on it.
           | 
           | But there's no direct trading going on at that state to
           | ensure they deliver what is claimed, the research "product"
           | is just dumped into papers. And those papers serve as an
           | impediment to subsequent researchers, since you can't publish
           | or get funded for the same thing that's already been done and
           | supposedly proven by someone else. Of course you wouldn't
           | have to if they had really solved the problem. But they just
           | threw together some minimal effort to stick their name on it
           | first before moving on to the next low-hanging fruit
           | somewhere else. Doing a literature review can be really
           | frustrating.
        
           | jononor wrote:
           | To explain blogs you also have to factor in the moves toward
           | more image and video centric content, I think.
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | Video content could be in itself another argument in favor
             | of GP's thesis. There seems to be dearth of high quality
             | video material. You have big-budget high quality videos,
             | big-budget garbage, and then lots and lots of low-budget
             | garbage: i.e. all the stuff "influencers" and "YouTube
             | personas" create to live off ad revenue.
             | 
             | There is a small and somewhat obscure but relatively stable
             | middle - low-budget, high-quality videos. I attribute its
             | survival to two things: some live off Patreon donations and
             | occasional sponsorship deals, others live because the
             | creators have an actual dayjob, and they do YouTube as a
             | hobby. This is similar to blogs - best ones are done on the
             | side, with no expectation of revenue.
        
               | jononor wrote:
               | I see more of your latter paragraph. In several of my
               | interest areas there is a good amount of useful content
               | in videos. Best example is probably electronics, where a
               | lot of tribal knowledge is now more accessible than ever
               | before. Practical mechanics, both old fashioned (metal
               | and woodworking) and new (CAD design, 3d-printing), also
               | has a lot of useful video content. While there is a lot
               | of pop-commercial "personas" making noise with their
               | videos also, it does not seem to have hurt output by "in
               | it for the passion" people.
        
         | skizm wrote:
         | Music is becoming more generic because musicians can rapidly
         | reach a wide audience and iterate quickly, so they see what
         | works and what doesn't and continue down the path of sound that
         | produces the most money.
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | Isn't the premise that this analogy extends to academia by
           | "seeing what works and what doesn't" to produce the most
           | publications to the point where the majority of papers are
           | derivative? While the iteration of the individual may not be
           | quicker, the large increase in the number of publications
           | seems to be indicative of the field iterating quicker.
           | 
           | E.g., the artist takes a big risk to produce a sound that
           | diverges from "what works" just like a scientist takes a big
           | risk to diverge from well-worn theory that has produced past
           | publication fodder.
        
         | jhoechtl wrote:
         | All what you say is true and I appreciate your deep thoughts.
         | 
         | There is another dimension to that though. It's the long tail.
         | The internet has tremendously facilitated mixing existing
         | content. That's creative too but not in the original sense of
         | creating something new.
         | 
         | With detached knowledge before the internet age much less
         | content has been produced and I would assume the novelty to
         | mixed content ratio was very much in favour of new content
         | instead of mixed content.
         | 
         | Internet technology brought us search engines but their search
         | algorithmus favour those paying most instead of providing a
         | service to discriminated remixed content from new content.
        
         | alexhutcheson wrote:
         | The problem isn't the existence of the papers, it's the years
         | of effort that go into producing the papers.
         | 
         | It's the failure to harness the hard work and brainpower of so
         | many brilliant people towards efforts that would meaningfully
         | improve the lives of others.
        
       | reilly3000 wrote:
       | The people who fund research look too hard for ROI. The funds
       | that get invested into research buy hours of time of people doing
       | research and maybe gear. They cannot buy discoveries. Until this
       | mismatch is addressed broadly, we will continue to have both a
       | reproducibility crisis and 'boring' papers.
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | There is a lot of caution in research funding. Some research is
         | considered "safe", whereas others risky. IN a properly balanced
         | portfolio, perhaps 80% of funding should go to safe work and
         | the remaining 20% to more risky, but potentially high-reward
         | studies. However this isn't how funding agencies usually
         | operate.
         | 
         | At least in the context of the U.S. government, funding
         | agencies are terrified of being seen as "wasting" funding,
         | because that is a sure way to have funding cut by congress. The
         | "Golden Fleece" awards, a congressman's attack on perceived
         | frivolous spending, have routinely been targeted at specific
         | research funded by the NSF and have helped make the agency
         | afraid of being attacked by congress.
        
         | bsf_ wrote:
         | I believe this is close to the truth. Moving one step further
         | upstream, the emphasis on high ROI stems from an overall lack
         | of availability of funding. Since there isn't enough money to
         | go around, it becomes necessary to choose some more selective
         | metric to pare down the pool of grant applicants.
        
           | virtuallynathan wrote:
           | Do we just have too many people doing "science"? Clearly
           | people are getting funding to crank out nonsense, boring
           | papers, studies that can't be replicated, etc.
        
             | bsf_ wrote:
             | Only if you believe that as a society we have solved all of
             | the interesting problems. Since this obviously is not true,
             | I would instead focus on the way we evaluate science to
             | improve it.
        
               | virtuallynathan wrote:
               | I'm mostly suggesting the money isn't well distributed,
               | and I'm pretty sure that's due to the misaligned
               | incentives. If we incentivized outcomes we care about, I
               | suspect more money would come naturally from the results.
        
       | colincooke wrote:
       | I think peer-review is an answer, perhaps not a great one, to how
       | can we trust specialist science. In a world where the renaissance
       | man role is no longer feasible, to move science forward we must
       | narrow our focus on particular sub-fields and problems within
       | that field. One issue of this is that it becomes much harder for
       | the general science community to verify your results, which is
       | where peer review attempts to help, by forcing you to get other
       | experts in your sub-field to review your work before it can be
       | stamped as trusted.
       | 
       | Does it work? Kind of. I've personally seen papers in reputable
       | journals that while not fradulant, are pretty misleading. At the
       | same time however I'm yet to see a workable alternative that
       | fixes the trust issue.
       | 
       | The question of boringness I think is pretty field dependent. In
       | the ML community I've often seen papers almost be rejected by the
       | peer review system because they're NOT exciting enough, despite
       | them being pretty influential (a great example is AdamW [1]).
       | 
       | Honestly my assesment of peer review is that not enough trainees
       | (read: grad students/post docs) are doing reviewing. Trainees are
       | often better acquainted with the details of methods, but also
       | have a more open mind to accept a finding that could go a little
       | against the grain. Additionally, they're often faster and do a
       | better job since they have more time on their hands then senior
       | researchers. There have been some efforts to fix this, but so far
       | mostly isolated to specific fields.
       | 
       | [1] https://openreview.net/forum?id=Bkg6RiCqY7
        
       | Dig1t wrote:
       | Sturgeon's law: 90% of everything is shit.
       | 
       | More everything means more shit.
        
       | jpmattia wrote:
       | > _The peer-reviewed research papers allows you to "measure"
       | productivity. How many papers in top-tier venues did research X
       | produce? And that is why it grew so strong._
       | 
       | If I were king, my rule would be to look at the number of
       | citations per paper and years of citation, rather than total
       | publication count. I think that would solve a number of issues,
       | although I'm sure that it would eventually be gamed as well.
       | 
       | I should mention though: It turns out that people have been
       | bitching about this for decades. For example: I was at Bell Labs
       | in the 90s, and there was regular lunchtime discussion about the
       | Least Publishable Increment (LPI). Everyone had some example
       | about how the LPI had decreased to near zero, and then a few wags
       | went on to show how the LPI had in fact gone negative in certain
       | subfields, not least because reviewers were overloaded and
       | couldn't keep up.
       | 
       | Hopefully, some of this will be self-correcting: Publications are
       | no longer the money-making activity they used to be, so resources
       | will begin to dry up. Eventually, pubs are going to start
       | rejecting valid papers for being too incremental.
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | This is whats done in science evaluation--the H-index for
         | instance is built from a combination of publication and
         | citation counts. Similarly, journal prestige is quantified
         | using the Journal Impact Factor, which aggregates the average
         | number of citation a paper in the journal receives.
         | 
         | As you speculate, these can also be gamed. Authors will cite
         | themselves more to inflate their citations, or form citation
         | carters with other authors to cite each other's work.
         | Similarly, journals have been known to coerce authors to cite
         | other works in the venue, in order to inflate their impact
         | factor. Beyond these, there are issues with comparing citations
         | across disciplines, article type, and other contexts.
         | 
         | > Eventually, pubs are going to start rejecting valid papers
         | for being too incremental.
         | 
         | Many of hte most prestigious journals, such as Science, Nature,
         | and Cell, already do this. However newer Mega-journals, like
         | PLoS, have had explicitly the opposite policy, and state that
         | they accept anything that is "sound science", no matter the
         | size of its contribution; they have however become more
         | selective over time.
        
         | colincooke wrote:
         | Most people do actually judge by citations rather than raw
         | pubs. It's an open secret that you can shove out papers
         | (acceptance to any venue, regardless of the quality of the work
         | is probabilistic) with enough effort. Getting cites is harder
         | (other than self-cites which is a seperate issue).
         | 
         | When I look up a researcher first thing I look at is their
         | number of citations and H-10 index, then I look through their
         | top papers (the ones that have been cited a lot). As far as I
         | know hiring committees also care about these things.
         | 
         | Of course it isn't the only thing that matters, or the most
         | important, but its much more useful than raw number of papers
         | published.
        
           | mattkrause wrote:
           | Even those are garbage measures though.
           | 
           | They can be gamed (albeit with a bit more effort), they vary
           | a ton between fields and subfields, and citation rates often
           | reflect the "prestige" of the lab/authors and the trendiness
           | of the topic, rather than the intrinsic "merit" of a paper.
           | 
           | I don't think there's any good automatic proxy for research
           | quality.
        
             | t_serpico wrote:
             | Garbage is a strong word. I think there's definitely a
             | moderate to strong correlation between h-index and quality
             | of researcher. The downside with the h-index is that it
             | also measures your ability to play the 'game' (i.e network,
             | cite your peers, etc.), but I really see no way around
             | that. You can also argue that this is an important skill to
             | have. If you produce the most amazing research in the world
             | and people don't cite you, that could point toward a number
             | of red flags (e.g you're an asshole, your work isn't clear
             | to understand, you don't appropriately cite your peers,
             | etc.)
        
       | frongpik wrote:
       | I think it's a real thing and has the same nature as the force
       | that keeps a water droplet together: it's the surface tension
       | that prevents others from sticking out and supports them to be
       | like others.
        
       | tracyhenry wrote:
       | By database folks: We are Drowning in a Sea of Least Publishable
       | Units (LPUs)
       | 
       | https://researchsetup.github.io/files/lpu.pdf
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | How are there so many papers if the papers are so long and
       | complicated these days and acceptance rates so low? Econ papers
       | for example have tons of data and stat analysis and are often 50+
       | pages and have multiple authors because there is so much data to
       | crunch and so much stats involved. The era of the 5-10 page paper
       | written by a single person that make an interesting observation
       | or novel insight, is over.
        
       | zwieback wrote:
       | The good papers are still out there but it's hard to slog through
       | the mediocre or downright worthless stuff if you're not an expert
       | in the field. That's a real problem, I think, even venturing into
       | an adjacent field takes a lot of reading and sorting through the
       | chaff unless you have someone to guide you. And number of
       | citations is not a great metric to figure out what's worth
       | reading.
       | 
       | By its nature, science and R&D is very incremental though. I have
       | some sympathy for the PhD student wanting to get something
       | published (or the prof wanting to get the PhD student to publish)
       | and 5 or even 10 years is short for truly groundbreaking results.
        
       | antpls wrote:
       | Imagine if research was like github, but deduplicated : a giant
       | graph database of unique facts, hypothesis, assumptions, proofs
       | and experiment results, where anyone can contribute, from fixing
       | a typo to publishing experiment dataset.
       | 
       | You would reference to previous knowledge without having to think
       | about citing authors, because it would be automatically generated
       | from the graph.
       | 
       | Then we would have hundreds of "knowledge verifiers", like we
       | have bots scanning github, and ultimately bots deriving new
       | knowledge and contributing to the graph.
       | 
       | The whole world would be building a shared database of knowledge,
       | without any duplicated effort.
       | 
       | Most of the individual facts in this database would probably be
       | boring (like the trivial facts in logic or mathematic), but once
       | in a while, an interesting and important fact would be found.
        
         | refulgentis wrote:
         | So, Wikipedia, except with some sort of syntactical structure
         | that allowed for formal evaluation and analysis of
         | arguments...we could call it a "compiler" for "compiling" sets
         | of rules, or "libraries"
        
         | bongoman37 wrote:
         | This is an interesting idea and would work for something like
         | Math or maybe theoretical physics, but once you get to messier
         | fields like Biology it would be mired in hopeless confusion.
         | Every experiment has so many varied parameters and restrictions
         | due to things like ethics committees that standardizing it is
         | nigh impossible. This is not even going down to fields like
         | psychology.
        
       | coliveira wrote:
       | The same can be said about software development: almost the
       | totality of software developed is boring, unnecessary, and
       | sometimes wrong. That said, we still know that developing
       | software is an important activity.
        
       | dekhn wrote:
       | Nearly every "exciting" paper I've encountered in my career
       | (spanning multiple areas of biology and computer science) has
       | turned out to be much less exciting when subjected to critical
       | analysis by a team of grad students (journal club). I've found
       | that many boring papers stand up better.
        
       | xakahnx wrote:
       | I find the same failed incentive scheme in industry. When a
       | company gets big enough (tens of thousands of employees), taking
       | risks to achieve something new and interesting doesn't pay off.
       | It's more reliable to just be present and focus on writing about
       | yourself during performance review time.
        
       | ivoras wrote:
       | a) 90% of everything is junk
       | 
       | b) that's what you get when you start optimising for paper
       | acceptance
        
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