[HN Gopher] Peer-reviewed papers are getting increasingly boring
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Peer-reviewed papers are getting increasingly boring
        
       Author : ingve
       Score  : 197 points
       Date   : 2021-01-01 18:05 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (lemire.me)
 (TXT) w3m dump (lemire.me)
        
       | samch93 wrote:
       | Doug Altman actually wrote a paper about this issue already in
       | 1994 [1]. A great quote: ,,We need less research, better
       | research, and research done for the right reasons"
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2539276/pdf/bmj...
        
       | jabl wrote:
       | One big issue is that grants are short time (meaning researchers
       | spend a stupid fraction of their time writing grant
       | applications), and incredibly competitive. Trying a slightly more
       | ambitious project and failing means the end of your research
       | career. So researchers do the logical thing which is the kind of
       | boring incremental research the article complains about.
       | 
       | Combine this with the focus on bibliometrics in evaluating
       | research output, and we have the mess we have today.
        
         | s0rce wrote:
         | I read a good study that suggested that so much time and effort
         | (and hence money) is wasted on writing proposals for non-funded
         | grants we should just assign a sizable fraction of the money by
         | lottery instead, without needing lengthy proposals. Everyone
         | knows you use the money for other stuff not specific to the
         | grant regardless. The opportunity cost of writing all the
         | rejected proposals would be saved and could be spent on actual
         | science, even if some of it isn't top notch that otherwise
         | would have been funded (and thats assuming that the grant
         | proposal system actually selects the stuff mostly likely to be
         | ground breaking).
        
           | rpedela wrote:
           | Yeah I agree, I would like to see some percentage be lottery
           | based. I think you should still need to write a proposal, but
           | if the proposal isn't selected then it goes in the lottery
           | pool. There are two reasons to still write the proposal:
           | helps organize the researcher's thoughts and shows the
           | researcher is serious.
        
       | pasttense01 wrote:
       | One thing to keep in mind is that some of the papers which
       | reviewers consider very marginal turn out to be breakthroughs.
       | For example Jim Allison, who later won the Nobel Prize:
       | 
       | "Allison was hoping to be published by one of the leading peer-
       | reviewed research journals. But nobody at Cell or Nature or any
       | of the A-list, peer-reviewed journals was willing to publish the
       | findings of this junior academic from Smithville, Texas.
       | "Finally, I ended up publishing the results in a new journal
       | called The Journal of Immunology." It wasn't Science or the New
       | England Journal of Medicine, but it was in print, and in the
       | world.
       | 
       | "At the end of the paper, I said, 'This might be the cell antigen
       | receptor, and here are the reasons why I think that it is the
       | T-cell antigen receptor,' and I just listed it out, all the
       | reasons." It was a bold announcement regarding the biggest topic
       | in immunology. "And nobody noticed it," Allison says. "Except in
       | one lab.""
       | 
       | https://www.wired.com/story/meet-jim-allison-the-texan-who-j...
       | 
       | So you really need to publish the marginal stuff to make sure the
       | breakthrough stuff gets published as well.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | Katalin Kariko, the Hungarian scientist that pioneered the mRNA
         | research, was academically demoted at UPenn because the
         | university considered her research as "impractical" and "waste
         | of time" [0]. That was in 1995.
         | 
         | In 2021, she is a hot candidate for the Nobel Prize for the
         | very same work, which led to mRNA vaccines.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.wired.co.uk/article/mrna-coronavirus-vaccine-
         | pfi...
        
       | kome wrote:
       | I just got my first paper accepted, after 8 months and 2 round of
       | r&r (please clap): the reviewers and editors try very very hard
       | to kill any joy, ambition and big idea. papers should be written
       | with a lot of accademic mannerism. The goal should be to make the
       | paper clear, but it's not true. It just a style to decide if you
       | are part of the clan or not.
        
         | tgv wrote:
         | TBH, big ideas should not be in a paper, unless you can really
         | prove it. I've read too many papers with grand new theories
         | that hinged on an experiment testing the tiniest of tiny
         | facets. All of these have been forgotten now, even by their
         | creators.
         | 
         | Once you have enough experience, know the field inside out, and
         | have gotten a bit of a name, you can write a book or edit a
         | special edition of a journal in which you may set out your
         | ideas.
        
         | burlesona wrote:
         | Congrats! What is your research about? What drew you to this
         | field, and why do you think it's important?
        
           | kome wrote:
           | Thank you! your comment and interest are quite heartwarming!
           | 
           | My research is about household debt: I try to understand why
           | some countries have more private indebtedness than others.
           | Growing up during the American crisis of 2008, and the
           | subsequent global crisis, made me realize that debt can be
           | dangerous, and I wanted to understand what pushes people to
           | borrow money.
           | 
           | For a website, I wrote a short introduction to my research: h
           | ttps://progressive.international/blueprint/3596cc12-0128-4f..
           | . - soon the full research will be published in a peer
           | reviewed journal. :)
        
             | ArnoVW wrote:
             | Interesting intro. It's even translated into French I
             | noticed. So northern Europe is borrowing three times more
             | (per capita) than the US? That goes against everything I
             | know.
             | 
             | One question: did you separate out consumptive credit from
             | mortgages? The amount is so high that it seems to me that
             | it includes mortgages.
             | 
             | Because in that case, is it not the cases that it is simply
             | because norther Europe is wealthy and has more expensive
             | houses and more home ownership.
             | 
             | Those mortgages are backed by houses, and are a sign of
             | good financial practices, allowing gradual increase of
             | wealth. Where consumptive credit is backed by nothing and
             | is generally a sign of bad financial practices.
        
               | skybrian wrote:
               | Well, it's unsecured debt, but a credit card is
               | informally backed by your future income. You might say
               | that all personal debt is backed primarily by your future
               | income.
               | 
               | Even mortgages are backed primarily by future income and
               | secondarily by the house, and this is why the bank wants
               | to know how much money you make.
               | 
               | Whether or not credit card debt results in future wealth
               | depends on what you buy.
        
               | ArnoVW wrote:
               | I'm not an expert in finance, so don't hold it against me
               | if I'm wrong, but does "backed by" not rather mean that
               | the bank can have your house if you can't make payments?
               | 
               | This in opposition to a credit card debt where they have
               | no come-back. Other than the courts and collections
               | agencies.
               | 
               | I was under the impression that this was the reason that
               | consumptive loans generally are capped far far lower than
               | mortgages. And have triple their interest rates.
               | 
               | While it is true that I can put my university on my
               | credit card, it is very expensive and very rare. I would
               | wager that the majority of these loans are for cars.
               | Which, I agree can create wealth, but it would have been
               | 'better practise' to buy a cheaper car, and switch when
               | that anticipated wealth has been created.
               | 
               | Moreover, those cars explain only part of the loans. The
               | rest is 'bigger tv' or the likes. And those do not even
               | create wealth.
        
               | kome wrote:
               | Thank you for taking the time to read!
               | 
               | Yes, in the full paper I separated consumer credit from
               | mortgages. In the intro I linked, indeed they are
               | aggregated.
               | 
               | Long story short: in northern and continental Europe
               | consumer credit is almost non-existent. Very tiny
               | numbers. Notable exception: the UK. But more mortgages
               | don't necessarily mean more home ownership eh.
               | 
               | "Those mortgages are backed by houses, and are a sign of
               | good financial practices, allowing gradual increase of
               | wealth. Where consumptive credit is backed by nothing and
               | is generally a sign of bad financial practices."
               | 
               | That's almost my conclusion as well, but I put more
               | emphasis on what social policies encourage you to do,
               | more than on good or bad practices. In the US they really
               | encourage going for consumer credit, also their
               | bankruptcy legislation is more lenient and encouraging a
               | fresh start; while in Europe we are much more draconian
               | with debt.
        
         | fancyfredbot wrote:
         | The style of academic papers is intended to encourage
         | objectivity I think. All the same I would agree it can indeed
         | obfuscate at times and a more informal style could be both more
         | enjoyable and easier to read.
        
         | guicho271828 wrote:
         | Congraturations on paper acceptance, but joy is very optional
         | in research. Joy is emotional and it clobbers logical insight.
         | Peer review is an attempt to guarantee a steady firm progress.
         | It is a matter of taste --- do you want progress or just want
         | to be comfortable? If you want joy, better to be a SF writer...
         | Still, strong results with good execution are allowed to enjoy
         | some freedom.
        
           | adwn wrote:
           | > _[...] but joy is very optional in research. Joy is
           | emotional and it clobbers logical insight._
           | 
           | I'm pretty sure OP meant "joy" as in "motivation/enjoyment of
           | one's work", not as in "hedonistic pleasure".
        
       | awillen wrote:
       | But on the other hand, with a severe replication crisis in
       | science (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21504366/science-
       | replicat...), isn't it a good thing that we have a bunch of
       | boring papers that are close to stuff that's already happened?
       | It's not people replicating others' findings exactly, but it at
       | least gives points of comparison that can help to weed out some
       | of the problematic work out there.
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | Boring is often a good thing, not just in science. There's a
         | reason that "May you live in interesting times" is considered a
         | curse.
         | 
         | Think about the year we just had. Whatever else you might say
         | about it, it wasn't boring.
         | 
         | [Clarification] Individual local experiences may have been
         | boring at times, but the year as a whole, from a historical
         | point of view, was not. And the things that made it non-boring
         | also made it suck big fat honking weenies. IMHO of course, but
         | I'm pretty sure most people on earth would agree with that
         | assessment.
        
           | hutzlibu wrote:
           | "Think about the year we just had. Whatever else you might
           | say about it, it wasn't boring. "
           | 
           | Well, from a global perspective maybe not. But subjective
           | there were lots of freaking times this year that were just
           | boring, because I wanted to go traveling and on festivals and
           | just see something else and not be locked down (even though
           | in my area the lockdown was quite light)
        
           | the-dude wrote:
           | I can assure you : lots of people found last year extremely
           | boring ( not me ).
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | > Think about the year we just had. Whatever else you might
           | say about it, it wasn't boring.
           | 
           | Being restrained to the house, watching the same news over
           | and over again, not being able to see friends, no evenings
           | out, parties, restaurant visits, &c. and you call this "not
           | boring"?
        
           | awillen wrote:
           | I disagree - boring is critical in science. Good science
           | means detailed record keeping and precise experimentation.
           | It's good if the results are exciting, but the process of
           | doing good science is typically quite boring when it's done
           | right.
           | 
           | Edit: This comment makes no sense, because I misread the
           | comment I was responding to as saying "just not in science"
           | not "not just in science"
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | bobthepanda wrote:
             | This doesn't sound like disagreement.
        
               | awillen wrote:
               | I was really confused for a bit there, and I finally
               | realized the comment I was responding to said "not just
               | in science," not "just not in science" as I had
               | originally read it. Whoops.
        
           | techer wrote:
           | Despite being widely attributed as a Chinese curse, there is
           | no known equivalent expression in Chinese.
           | 
           | The nearest related Chinese expression translates as "Better
           | to be a dog in times of tranquility than a human in times of
           | chaos."
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_ti.
           | ..
           | 
           | Not saying you claimed it was Chinese but FYI.
        
             | mdiesel wrote:
             | I've only come across it as part of Pratchetts work, in the
             | book Interesting Times, and had just assumed it was another
             | of his witticisms.
        
             | Bakary wrote:
             | There is a Chinese saying that every saying is eventually
             | attributed to the Chinese given enough time
        
         | systemvoltage wrote:
         | I think we need to take Vox documentaries with a grain of salt.
         | They're not as thorough as the Economist, etc. and have their
         | own agenda mixed with YouTube content engagement metrics. You
         | can argue that's the case with any publication but IMO YouTube
         | forces content makers to do crazy shit like exciting facial
         | expressions in thumbnails for better engagement.
        
           | apsec112 wrote:
           | I personally know the author of that piece very well and can
           | vouch for their credibility - feel free to ask if you have
           | any questions about their work or about the replication
           | crisis in science.
        
           | awillen wrote:
           | That's just one article - it's not a unique point of view
           | from Vox.
           | 
           | https://www.nature.com/news/1-500-scientists-lift-the-lid-
           | on... https://ecrcommunity.plos.org/2019/11/18/living-in-the-
           | repro...
        
         | patcon wrote:
         | This sounds like the age-old balance between maintenance/repair
         | and breaking-new-ground/innovation. My personal sense is that
         | there is and always has been a gendered dimension to striking
         | this balance, and varying levels of predisposition that
         | bellcurve along gender-specific neurotypes.
         | 
         | For me, once I was pointed to this axis, I started recognizing
         | it everywhere -- legal institutions, the way companies are run,
         | etc etc
         | 
         | Hofstede's cultural dimension studies commissioned by IBM in
         | the 50s (?) have things to say about this too
        
         | mickallen wrote:
         | You make a good point.
        
         | xenocyon wrote:
         | Yes, boring in the conventional sense is desirable from a
         | scientific point of view (because the preference for surprising
         | results leads to the biggest problem science has today: most
         | published findings are incorrect). The linked article doesn't
         | really do a very good job of explaining what "boring" means to
         | the author, but my hope is he doesn't have a problem with
         | boring in the sense of negative findings or unsurprising
         | results.
        
       | bjornsing wrote:
       | Feynman made some interesting observations in his 1973 Cargo Cult
       | Science speech...
        
       | Areading314 wrote:
       | Irritating to see this Atlantic "study" being accepted as valid
       | and written about. This happened with the "bullshit jobs" meme
       | where it stirred up enough controversy that it became an accepted
       | fact for many people, even though the original research was
       | highly questionable and didn't actually prove much of anything
        
       | burlesona wrote:
       | This is a reasonable and well-explained argument, which I've
       | heard many times before: the incentives are currently producing a
       | large quantity of mediocre research, rather than groundbreaking
       | science.
       | 
       | So let me ask the research community on HN something I see
       | discussed less often. What alternative incentives exist today, or
       | could be created, that would push more scientists to try higher
       | risk / higher reward research?
        
         | TobyBrull wrote:
         | Give people tenure after their PhD and pay them a crappy salary
         | that is guaranteed for the rest of their lives.
        
           | bjornsing wrote:
           | Interesting idea. Like a Universal Basic Income for PhDs...
           | :)
        
         | austincheney wrote:
         | Percentage ownership of resultant intellectual property.
         | 
         | A good example is the Minneola, a wonderful citrus fruit. The
         | plant patent is owned by three parties: the University of
         | Minnesota and the two inventors.
        
           | varjag wrote:
           | Largely inapplicable beyond applied sciences.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | Imagine how much the Maxwell Trust would own today... The
             | biggest problem with a viral IP system is that there would
             | be nothing left for applied scientists.
        
               | varjag wrote:
               | And science would likely devolve into patent trolling
               | system.
        
           | logifail wrote:
           | > Percentage ownership of resultant intellectual property.
           | 
           | Pfft. I've been through this, my ex-supervisor attempted to
           | file a patent which included a bunch of figures and
           | illustrations I drew single-handedly while writing up my PhD
           | and which were lifted from my thesis without my consent.
           | 
           | My PhD was funded by a government research council.
           | 
           | My ex-supervisor was filing a patent on behalf of a private
           | company he set up to run in parallel out of his university
           | laboratory.
           | 
           | There are some people who just don't care about rules and
           | figure they can just ask for forgiveness later. I'm still
           | cross about this, over 20 years later.
        
         | kome wrote:
         | i would say to emphasize bibliometrics measures of productivity
         | less (how much you publish) and emphasize measures of social
         | impact more. But it easy to say...
        
         | asdfasgasdgasdg wrote:
         | The elephant in the room, IMO, is that there is only so much
         | ground to be broken. The physical world is fundamentally
         | limited and limiting. There's a limit to how much there is to
         | know about it, and as we come to know more of the big things,
         | it becomes more and more difficult to learn the smaller and
         | smaller things. This outcome -- that the rate of groundbreaking
         | research is slowing -- is what we should expect, even under a
         | consistent policy.
        
           | bonoboTP wrote:
           | My biggest transformative learning experience regarding this
           | has been how much of even technical (in particular CS, AI,
           | ML) research is about recombination of existing ideas and
           | that the most successful researchers aren't doing strictly
           | technical contributions and "breaking ground", "discovering
           | new terrain", but of selling new stories and narratives
           | involving known concepts and shifting the emphasis from known
           | aspect to another known aspect.
           | 
           | Relatedly, in this lecture [0] he expresses it by contrasting
           | the "positivist" model where knowledge is piled on, linearly
           | expanding vs the model of discourse, where research is a
           | conversation, where participants must know what the others
           | take for granted, assume, doubt etc and new contributions
           | argue that there are better ways to do or conceptualize
           | things. Works are forgotten, left behind, ignored etc. A work
           | can be valuable in one context at one stage in the discourse,
           | while worthless at another time. It's not like a neutral map
           | of some terrain that we can just file and store forever.
           | 
           | He's in the social sciences, where this may be more obvious,
           | but it's also true of sufficiently developed technical
           | sciences too. When the low hanging fruit has been picked, the
           | game becomes closer to zero sum. I mean new value can still
           | be created, but not mainly through bringing in "new
           | characters into the story" but by letting the story unfold
           | using the same characters (main ideas). Only a true paradigm
           | shift may break this equilibrium.
           | 
           | [0] https://youtu.be/vtIzMaLkCaM
        
             | HPsquared wrote:
             | Kind of like how sales and marketing people search for and
             | find new customers and applications for an existing product
             | or service.
        
         | efavdb wrote:
         | A related point is that we could improve how good work is
         | bubbled up. Another poster pointed out Allison's work that led
         | to the Nobel prize, and he claimed it was appreciated by just
         | one group and that helped it get broader notice. How many great
         | works go unnoticed now just because there is no famous author
         | on the paper who has the bully pulpit to command attention?
        
         | 13415 wrote:
         | The only alternatives I see:
         | 
         | 1. National research funding agencies and universities need to
         | stop doing their assessments based on publication counting. Of
         | course, publications need to be taken into account somehow, but
         | at the very least these indicators should be weighed by curated
         | rankings of journals.
         | 
         | 2. Existing publications can be used as an indicator for how
         | much output is to be expected in the future, but the goals for
         | research output should be kept reasonably low. You cannot
         | control the output of researchers, you can only control which
         | ones you hire and (to some extent) the type of research they
         | conduct.
         | 
         | 3. Hiring in academia needs to be based more often on screening
         | candidates by committees of outside experts in the field
         | instead of local staff and people who don't know the area well.
         | Projects also always need to be evaluated by experts on
         | project's topic. (As strange as this may sound, this is often
         | not the case!) It might even help to prune away irrelevant
         | indicators, e.g. ask candidates to submit only 3-5 of their
         | best publications and completely ignore the rest. And by
         | "completely" I really mean completely. The reason is that if
         | you have two researchers and one of them has 20 publications
         | with five really good ones, and the other has 40 mediocre
         | publications and not a single good one, then it is very hard
         | for a normal assessment committee to justify taking the first
         | one, but it's always easy to converge on the second one, even
         | if that is exactly the wrong choice.
         | 
         | 4. Assessment committees need to be told to evaluate the
         | quality and originality of the research only. If you really
         | want or need a certain output quantity, then make it part of
         | the formal hiring criteria, not part of the scientific
         | evaluation.
         | 
         | 5. Increase funding for risky projects and risky individual
         | grants, elimination of criteria that exclude unusual CVs (e.g.
         | allow long time after PhD, people from other areas, people with
         | time spent in business, unusual research suggestions).
         | Originality should be one of the highest ranking criteria.
         | There should also be a focus on versatility and _hard skills_.
         | Even in the humanities, never hire anyone who says anything
         | disparaging about mathematical methods and statistics, and
         | never leverage people who don 't know the tools of their trade
         | into positions of power.
         | 
         | Basically, you cannot push scientists to anything. Once someone
         | is hired at the postdoc level, you cannot steer much,
         | micromanagement and constant evaluation are highly counter-
         | productive. You need to hire scientists that do interesting
         | research. Treat them like an investment in a startup: Most of
         | them will fail but some of them will succeed. Give them a
         | second chance, maybe even a third one, but not indefinitely
         | many. The hiring policies and processes at universities are
         | often bad. Candidates are not evaluated by experts, there is
         | plenty of favoritism, boring high producers are favored over
         | interesting researchers who want to built something up, because
         | the local staff doesn't like scientists who "shake things up",
         | and so on. There is a lot of inertia to overcome in Academia,
         | being a good scientist can sometimes even be harmful to your
         | career. Funding agencies need to steer against this.
         | 
         |  _Edit: Much of what I mention can also be achieved by getting
         | an absolute top researcher in an area, give him or her an
         | institute or research unit and ton of money, and let them do
         | their thing. They know what to do and whom to hire. But it 's
         | expensive._
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | I left academia for industry, so my opinion might be colored by
         | the transition.
         | 
         | The way I see it, the easy problems that can be solved by one
         | or two individuals are mostly gone. You need large diverse
         | teams to tackle interesting problems.
         | 
         | To translate this into policy, you need opportunities for many
         | more first authors, and you need to try to incentivize
         | completely different departments to work together.
        
           | virtuallynathan wrote:
           | I'm not sure this is true in all areas, there are very simple
           | questions left unanswered in health/medicine/nutrition that
           | could be at least partially answered by very small studies.
        
           | bra-ket wrote:
           | > You need large diverse teams to tackle interesting problems
           | 
           | This 'corporate' view of science is just not true, kind of
           | like adding "man-hours" to software projects doesn't
           | necessarily account for better software, speeds up or enables
           | those projects.
           | 
           | Large diverse teams just produce more mediocre research, if
           | recent experience with massive "deep learning" industry is of
           | any indication, or fail completely like that "blue brain"
           | project with multi billion funding and thousands of
           | participants.
           | 
           | Bigger is not always better and it has never been necessary
           | for good science.
        
           | s0rce wrote:
           | I'd say this is true in a sense that you "stand on the
           | shoulders of giants", you rely on a lot of technology and
           | science that has been developed by others. But small non-
           | diverse teams can accomplish important (but likely small)
           | breakthroughs in their field. You don't necessarily need a
           | large diverse team to do important science. My anecdote is my
           | PhD work.
        
         | tracyhenry wrote:
         | Not sure if it applies to other fields, but as I observe in CS,
         | many professors start tackling more interesting & risky
         | projects after getting their tenure. Even though their
         | students/postdocs still value paper count a lot, they care more
         | about producing ground breaking works.
        
         | Bakary wrote:
         | I think it might be a mistake to frame the issue as scientists
         | not doing enough groundbreaking research. Those scientists do
         | exist in greater numbers than before and have the right
         | incentives guiding them. What is happening instead is that the
         | superfluous group is expanding at an ever greater rate.
         | 
         | These are two parallel worlds being discussed as if they were
         | one.
         | 
         | To answer your question, I believe we need to look outside of
         | academia to relieve the pressures on most people so that fewer
         | are tempted to add to the science glut. I'd venture to mention
         | UBI but that's a whole can of worms
        
         | aqsalose wrote:
         | In my limited experience as a disillusioned PhD student
         | dropout, the issues are in approximate order:
         | 
         | 1. Publications in prestigious journals have become a measure,
         | not a way to communicate. This leads to perverse behavior.
         | 
         | Any kind of project that would involve deep work is very scary,
         | unless it has early low-hanging fruit called easy publishable
         | papers as intermediate steps that are easily published. I
         | personally felt I was encouraged to find such fruits without
         | too much coherence in what I was doing. Preferentially one does
         | not have to learn or study anything challenging, because that
         | makes the fruit potentially much more difficult to pick.
         | 
         | My proposed solution: do not judge researchers by length of
         | their publication list to evaluate them to hire/fund. Judge
         | them by a selection of their recent work instead and maybe
         | their presentation what they are doing now.
         | 
         | 2. This is connected to another problem, corrective feedback
         | comes quite late into play, when the most work has been done
         | and it is very costly to change anything. I feel better results
         | could be had of reviewers entered the stage when study was
         | being drafted.
         | 
         | Currently, submit a manuscript into a journal, get it rejected
         | after a round of substantive, critical but correct reviewer
         | comments? Optimal thing is not to review the work as suggested
         | in the light of new ideas, but try to find a less prestigious
         | journal likely to accept it with minimal work.
         | 
         | 3. This has effects on conferences. While their primary purpose
         | has always been presenting ones research and hearing about
         | others, they kind of turn too much into a platform for
         | advertising your research _so that you get cited_. Thus the
         | general feeling can be quite one-way, and there is less
         | knowledge enhancing communication by scientific discussion.
         | Some conferences are better than others (amount genuine
         | curiosity and interest helps), but sometimes I felt people
         | would come to deliver their own little advert, maybe as chore
         | between meeting their personal friends, instead of coming to
         | talk, both receive and offer meaningful updates.
         | 
         | 4. PI-centered networks and death of university department. I
         | believe originally university departments were formed because
         | it was thought beneficial and reasonable to have scholars with
         | similar interests nearby. Social networks are probably quite
         | important part of science, and is easier with people who are
         | located often in the same building. Research group culture is a
         | fascinating way to have groups of people nearby who don't
         | communicate. It appears that to PI, each unsanctioned contact
         | from their underlings to outside the group is a distraction at
         | best (if it leads to underling working on publishing something
         | PI is not involved in) or an unwelcome threat at worst, because
         | it risks changing their plans, whether they concern the
         | projects underlings should working on, the author order on
         | planned manuscripts, or something else. All presentations to
         | group outsiders is about signalling importance, prestige and
         | coolness, but no research communication within department to
         | help with unfinished work.
         | 
         | Solution would involve stopping funding faux institutions
         | within institutions, and start paying researchers in a way that
         | encourages them actually collaborate within their physical
         | departments when it is useful. (Salary paid by
         | university/dept., no project grants.)
         | 
         | 5. I suppose science moving very large projects involving lots
         | of contributors can not be helped, but it is incompatible with
         | publication authorship as the currency of value in academia. It
         | leads to authorship beimg traded as a currency within projects.
         | One is "paid" by official authorship in some papers; sometimes
         | a person can show their magnanimity by bestowing it upon some
         | people who participated. Sometimes technical or statistical
         | help does not get acknowledged.
         | 
         | IDK what to do about that. Moving out of evaluating publication
         | lists to evaluating personal contribution/capability might
         | help. In addition to big publications that are meant to
         | communicate the big findings publicly but leave outsiders to
         | interpret author order like tea leaves, record publicly some
         | documentation what exactly each individual did, in their own
         | writing, and that documentation is what the contributors should
         | refer to in their CVs?
        
         | CJefferson wrote:
         | I think the problem is requiring excessive polish in academic
         | papers.
         | 
         | This causes two problems:
         | 
         | 1) It's easier to polish something which is incremental.
         | 
         | 2) It's easier to achieve the look of polish by purposefully
         | hiding issues and smoothing over edges.
         | 
         | I'd personally like every paper about a technique or algorithm
         | to include as many problems where it does terribly as where it
         | does well -- this is annoyingly uncommon. Also, people
         | shouldn't be afraid to discuss all the nasty unfinished bits
         | but in practice if you mention them reviews say "well, go fix
         | that before acceptance".
        
           | chalst wrote:
           | I think this is close to the truth but misses an important
           | factor: journal editors are, as a result of increasing
           | submissions, asking for more refereeing. As a result, an
           | increasingly high proportion of academics don't referee at
           | all and those that do tend to referee more papers in less
           | depth.
           | 
           | With less time spent per referee report, easily appreciated
           | evidence of polish matters more where papers that pay
           | attention to careful issues of methodology, tackle deep
           | problems, etc., require time on the part of the referee that
           | they are unwilling to spend.
        
           | bjornsing wrote:
           | Yes. I'm into ML/AI and would love to read more papers on
           | cool ideas studied in isolation, but most papers out there
           | are more "we combined these fiftytwelve techniques and look
           | it's SOTA on this dataset!" (It should also say "we have no
           | idea why" but they tend to leave that out.)
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | Many novel funding approaches have been proposed in an attempt
         | to free scientists from the endless grant-> public-> grant
         | cycle.
         | 
         | One is to accept only mini grant proposals, say 10 pages at
         | most, and screen these to meet some minimum threshold, say,
         | aiming for the top 20th percentile. Then a random subset of
         | these get funded. This helps diversify the funding somewhat,
         | and hopefully catch more "risky, but interesting" projects.
         | 
         | Another approach has been universal funding. The most basic is
         | "everyone gets X research dollars", and any additional funding
         | would require submitting grants on top of that. More complex
         | schemes propose "everyone gets 2X dollars, but they must donate
         | X to other researchers", which allows some people to accumulate
         | the funds necessary to conduct big, expensive work. But all of
         | these proposals aim to minimize grant writing and review, and
         | hopefully to diversify the kinds of work being done.
         | 
         | Longer windows of evaluation could also be useful. Big
         | interesting ideas take time to develop and support, but the
         | competitive academic environment demands quick evaluations,
         | which make ot difficult to sustain long projects. Evaluating a
         | research project after 5 years, instead of 1 or 2, could help
         | alleviate some of the pressure on researchers so they can
         | pursue longer agendas.
         | 
         | Every researcher can come up with their pet theory and
         | solution. Ultimately, I think that all of these approaches, and
         | many others, have merit. But we need to experiment with
         | different policies to see what works.
        
         | vosper wrote:
         | This is something Patrick Collison (Stripe CEO) has been
         | talking about these past few years. Here's an Atlantic article
         | from Collison and Tyler Cowen called "We Need a New Science of
         | Progress"
         | 
         | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/we-need-...
         | 
         | And an EconTalk episode on the same subject (which goes into
         | more detail than the article)
         | 
         | https://www.econtalk.org/patrick-collison-on-innovation-and-...
        
       | NotPavlovsDog wrote:
       | I am currently pursuing a second master's degree (in management),
       | some of my personal experience in academia:
       | 
       | 1) Publish or perish is a real thing. Citation ratings and
       | measuring affects many of the academics I have encountered. This
       | contributes to boring papers.
       | 
       | 2) Mentioning the replication crisis in social science gets a lot
       | of the social science academics observably upset and defensive.
       | They have to take care of 1)!
       | 
       | Compare this to the exemplary stance in CS, as demonstrated by
       | researchers criticizing Google for not backing magic AI claims. [
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2766-y ] This vigorous
       | scientific stance is almost impossible to imagine in social
       | science outside of Critical Management Studies.
       | 
       | 3) I have enjoyed my time spent with CS academics a lot more,
       | luckily have some interaction even now - the ones I have spoken
       | to seem to lack the self-criticism blind spots the social
       | scientists exhibited. The CS group seems to have a lot more fun
       | with their research.
       | 
       | It was also interesting to observe that for term papers, many CS
       | professors wanted to see a report with _working software_ and a
       | well-thought-out story of what challenges one encountered and how
       | they were overcome. Not one paper was returned because of
       | improper styling nor citing. They appeared to enjoy the battle
       | stories of trouble-shooting and finding solutions to assignment
       | challenges. They even read the sources I linked to, commenting on
       | what they thought was a good find.
       | 
       | From that experience (and others), CS sure feels like more of a
       | meritocracy.
       | 
       | In opposition, some social science professors were obsessed with
       | proper APA or Harvard styling and citing "the right thinkers".
       | Circular citation is a real thing. Perhaps since they can't prove
       | anything, establishing credibility via cliques, mutual citation
       | and signaling may be their academic survival strategy.
       | 
       | It does feel like management and CS are orthogonal, and this has
       | motivated me to direct my research towards a hard realism
       | approach to facilitating communication between developers and
       | value driven management.
       | 
       | I.e. I have observed that even when a manager or leader wants to
       | hire developers, social science damaged managers and HR will
       | actively sabotage these efforts because they are still,
       | fundamentally, driven by Taylorist, control fetish concepts
       | (which they refuse to accept). The SS victims seem to wish to
       | push their personal struggle on developers. "I suffered through
       | school, you must show a diploma as well". Some even demand
       | transcripts!
       | 
       | When I consulted a company that was complaining about how hard it
       | was to recruit developers, I looked at their application process.
       | They demanded college transcripts even before the review of
       | applicants began. I hope you are laughing with me at the entitled
       | absurdity of this. Oh you want a personal letter as well?
       | 
       | Bitter HR person, do you fail to understand that you are
       | competing in your recruitment against multiple actors actively
       | scraping through code repositories and blogs to find and contact
       | devs? Or does accepting that a developer is incomparably more
       | competitive on the job market than you and has multiple offers of
       | employment at any time just hurt too much?
       | 
       | One of my favorite quotes from a researcher (well cited) about
       | managing developers includes a rant on how creative, industry
       | competitive (can get another job) and financially stable
       | developers are "hard to manage".
       | 
       | This may be how many incompetent managers feel, deeply.
       | 
       | If I can facilitate getting these emotionally insecure
       | individuals out of recruitment and management, assisting
       | developers and managers that want to produce _value_ to find each
       | other, it would be in opposition to many well peer-reviewed
       | publications. Boring publications.
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | My doctoral degree has required training in both Computer
         | Science and Social Science, and regularly interact with both
         | communities. Drawing on this, I feel that this comment is
         | unnecessarily partisan and divisive.
         | 
         | > 2) Mentioning the replication crisis in social science gets a
         | lot of the social science academics observably upset and
         | defensive.
         | 
         | The replication crisis is widely discussed in social sciences.
         | Nearly every major social science journal will have at least
         | one, likely many, editorials and articles on the crisis
         | tailored to their field. Maybe this is explicitely a Management
         | Studies thing? The field is relatively small and insular, and
         | so cannot be generalized to wider social science. And are your
         | experiences drawon from the community as a whole, or the
         | faculty in your department?
         | 
         | > 3) I have enjoyed my time spent with CS academics a lot more,
         | luckily have some interaction even now - the ones I have spoken
         | to seem to lack the ego-driven blind spots the social
         | scientists exhibit. The CS group seems to have a lot more fun
         | with their research.
         | 
         | Maybe this is just the local community of wherever you studied?
         | I've met equal parts ego-driven and chill people in both CS and
         | Social Science. A major concept in most social science fields
         | is sampling--I'd urge you to consider how representative the
         | people you are talking to actually are, and how your sample
         | might be biased from the global population. My prior is that
         | there would be little difference in personality, in aggregate,
         | between the fields.
         | 
         | > I.e. I have observed that even when a manager or leader wants
         | to hire developers, social science damaged managers and HR will
         | actively sabotage these efforts because they are still,
         | fundamentally, driven by Taylorist, control fetish concepts
         | (which they refuse to accept)
         | 
         | I mean, that's one possibility. The other is that hiring people
         | is difficult and expensive, and that credentials are a quick
         | and useful, if flawed, method of sorting through the pile.
         | 
         | And are most HR people really trained in Management? I honestly
         | don't know, but I doubt that the typical Psychology or
         | Sociology major, for instance, is going to know of, remember,
         | or consider using Taylorist management theory.
         | 
         | It definitely seems that you enjoyed your time in CS more than
         | your time in Management. That's great! CS is an important field
         | with lots of cool people. But generalizing this preference into
         | a wider philosophy that privileges CS at the expense of (all?)
         | social sciences is silly.
        
           | hndudette2 wrote:
           | Regarding the replication crisis, can I ask why we don't yet
           | have a central body to which scientists report their intended
           | experimental design, sample size and research hypothesis
           | before the experiment begins? Then we can eliminate
           | publication bias due to null results not being published
           | which is a big part of the replication crisis. The meta-
           | analyses only survey those studies that reported this ahead
           | of time and the scope of possible publication bias can be
           | quantified.
        
             | pmyteh wrote:
             | There are registration databases, but there are issues.
             | 
             | Who trawls the (now huge) database to find the registered
             | studies which never reported? In any case, that could
             | indicate a file drawer problem publication bias or simply
             | that the funding disappeared or a researcher decided not to
             | proceed.
             | 
             | How do you move from very spotty preregistration to
             | compulsory preregistration? It would probably take a
             | coordinated push from all the major funders. And they
             | haven't successfully moved to fully open access publication
             | in over a decade of trying, despite the obvious financial
             | gain to the non-publisher world of winning at _that_
             | coordination game.
             | 
             | How do you handle work on the margins of registerability?
             | Not all scientific work is testing hypotheses, some is
             | exploratory. Should a quantitative description be ruled out
             | if it wasn't registered? If so, how are reasonable
             | hypotheses for future work established? If not, you have to
             | be extra vigilant to stop people smuggling phrases that
             | imply confirmation into nominally exploratory work.
             | 
             | And the other problem with the replication crisis is that
             | even decently-planned, pre-registered, straightforward
             | studies can not replicate. Sometimes for reasonable reasons
             | (significance was actually by chance, some unanticipated
             | confounder interfered) and sometimes for thoroughly
             | blameworthy ones (rather than p-hacking you can just fudge
             | the data, or make 'accidental' programming errors).
             | 
             | So I'm all in favour of pre-registration, but it's not a
             | magic bullet.
        
         | pmyteh wrote:
         | Attitudes towards the replication crisis seem to me to vary
         | between researchers in any given social science discipline.
         | Those (careless?) empirical researchers whose careers are being
         | retrospectively ripped apart are inevitably horrified (and
         | coming up with a huge range of arguments both reasonable and
         | unreasonable as to why they shouldn't) while theorists are
         | mostly happy and younger empiricists are taking up the
         | reproducability/better science challenge with some enthusiasm.
         | Likewise, attitudes to perfect citation vary wildly. I don't
         | care as long as it's vaguely consistent, which is a common (but
         | not universal) position in my sub-discipline.
         | 
         | I'm not sure how much of your experiences are specifically a
         | feature of management research rather than the social sciences
         | in general. I spent a bit of time studying management (and
         | being a manager, in pre-academic times), though now I'm a
         | computational political communication academic. Management
         | research is seen by the rest of us as a bit weird - a bit of an
         | outsider discipline, with different attitudes and surprisingly
         | little scholarly overlap. I wouldn't expect that many political
         | scientists or sociologists to be Taylorists, for example.
         | 
         | Publish or perish, boring papers, and problematic academic
         | management on the other hand - that is very familiar.
        
           | NotPavlovsDog wrote:
           | Interesting, thank you for commenting!
           | 
           | Popular management research does seem like an extra easy
           | target... I have had exposure to several social science
           | departments across continents, not just management, and those
           | members that could be described as "mainstream" are somewhat
           | lacking in reflexivity, with some exceptions. (When they are
           | critical, they stand out extra bright, like Alvesson,
           | Wilmott, Rowlinson)
           | 
           | But about management research. When a leading critical figure
           | in the field summarizes it as follows:
           | 
           |  _" Whilst there are plenty of theories in management, there
           | are no laws"_ [P.Griseri,as quoted by P. Morris in
           | "Reconstructing project management" ],
           | 
           | one could wonder if that state of affairs could perhaps be
           | explained by deeply ingrained subservience of management
           | research to industry [ as described by Alvesson and other
           | Critical Management Studies (CMS) practitioners].
           | 
           | As far as Taylorism, there may not be self-identification in
           | the field per se, but whether taylorism, puritanism or any
           | other -ism linked to a fundamental desire for subservience,
           | control and performance measurement as sound management
           | practice could be described as to run deep. ( A gem of a
           | paper is "The impact of Puritan ideology on aspects of
           | project management" by Whitty & Schultz )
           | 
           | I have been doing some preliminary experiments with applying
           | CMS to recruitment - a short summary could be "treating
           | developers with respect by providing necessary information
           | and establishing transparency in the job announcement
           | increases responses dramatically. Who knew!"
           | 
           | Another interest of mine lies in sociophysics, which I have a
           | huge reading list to catch up on. Did you have any
           | sociophysics topics that attracted your interest in relation
           | to political communication?
        
       | amirkdv wrote:
       | I can't help but but think a universal basic income, at least in
       | societies that can afford it, would dramatically change the
       | entrenched misalignment that causes this.
       | 
       | The signal/noise issue is real but as others have noted not the
       | most concerning. The main structural problem IMO is that all the
       | structures that support scientific research (academic evaluation,
       | university admin, granting agencies, publishing industry, etc.)
       | are all re-enforcing untenable illusions. A few benefit immensely
       | from this, but there are many who have the incentive to change,
       | yet they are cornered by their economic circumstances to play
       | along.
        
       | pelasaco wrote:
       | I have the impression that yes the papers are getting boring, and
       | peer-review is one of problems, however i have it as side effect.
       | The main problem, IMO, is Research as profession, where the
       | researcher is just interested in finish his/her paper, to get it
       | published, to be able to get a next grant and keep researching
       | about a topic that he/she is not really passionate about. The
       | comparison with Einstein is therefore unfair. For big part of the
       | researchers, science is just a job.
        
         | bjornsing wrote:
         | Yes. And when "it's just a job" people dominate it sets the
         | culture, and makes Einstein's life very difficult / improbable.
        
       | bonoboTP wrote:
       | Stepping back a bit, I feel the argument is analogous to how
       | music is becoming more mainstream and generic, how casual gamers
       | "corrupt" the art form of gaming, how clickbait and stupit stuff
       | is overshadowing lovingly curated independent websites, eternal
       | September etc.
       | 
       | One answer to all these propositions is that the valuable stuff
       | is still there, you just have an _additional_ flood of mediocre
       | boring predictable stuff. You can still find enough indie music
       | and games and movies to spend all your free time on.
       | 
       | Similarly, if you know where to look and whose papers to watch
       | out for, you can read more interesting stuff. The existence of
       | more bullshit makes the filtering somewhat more effort, but it's
       | bearable.
       | 
       | Most papers are never deeply read anyway, outside of the
       | reviewers. Even citations don't mean someone really read the
       | paper in depth.
       | 
       | So, most mediocre, boring papers get ignored.
       | 
       | It's an illusion to expect that every researcher can pump out
       | multiple really interesting non-boring papers every year. So we
       | pretend. We write, we cite, we present, overiflate, overpromise
       | etc. It must look like there is steady hard noble work and toil.
       | It's like a ritual. The scientists are writing all these papers
       | so tax payers can sleep well that their money is paid for hard
       | work.
        
         | timkam wrote:
         | I largely agree, but we do not write all these papers "so tax
         | payers can sleep". We write these papers because the
         | administration incentivizes us to get the highest profile
         | publications with the lowest effort possible. In relatively
         | creative fields (i.e., much of computer science), this can even
         | mean to make friends in the community and co-author papers with
         | them without being the one who does any of the hard work. (In
         | other sciences, it means being the one who pulls in the money,
         | as far as I understand.)
         | 
         | A related problem I see is that we treat all papers the same:
         | position (opinion) papers, reviews & surveys, and "hard"
         | results (relevant proofs, strong empirical results, software
         | artifacts that are deployed at scale in practice etc.). As the
         | blog post somewhat suggests, the administration should
         | primarily ask us to summarize these results when assessing
         | whether we are worthy of funding and faculty positions; sure,
         | it takes more effort, but I think it is possible.
        
           | nextos wrote:
           | Exactly, the big issue is that paper counts have become the
           | dominant metric. And like with all structures dominated by a
           | single metric, it's easy to game the system.
           | 
           | Most professors I have worked with in experimental sciences
           | are completely disconnected from actual research. They just
           | optimize for hiring hordes of people to churn out tons of
           | mediocre papers, which they don't care about. I came from
           | theoretical CS & math, so this was really shocking.
           | 
           | It's really depressing and it needs to change. Academia is
           | now in a phase similar to that of an innovative startup which
           | has been filled in with many middle managers, and has turned
           | into a corporate monstrosity.
        
             | retrac wrote:
             | "Paper count" is about as reliable a metric as "lines of
             | code". Publish or die is a toxic mentality in academia and
             | you are certainly not the first to have observed this,
             | sadly.
        
           | anonymousDan wrote:
           | Regarding your second paragraph, I don't think this is the
           | case in the UK at least, where academics are judged according
           | to the REF criteria.
        
         | Ericson2314 wrote:
         | Inevitable of not, this has real costs, in that that government
         | will eventually turn off the gravy train and the "good" and
         | "bad" research alike will be negatively impacted.
         | 
         | In other words, academia is sowing the seeds of its own demise,
         | and with it, the official institutional pinnacle of our culture
         | [please don't wince too hard when reading that!].
         | 
         | ----
         | 
         | The solution i think is less research but more library work.
         | See https://blog.khinsen.net/posts/2020/07/08/the-landscapes-
         | of-... and https://hapgood.us/2015/10/17/the-garden-and-the-
         | stream-a-te... which it cites.
         | 
         | The amount of work library work we are not doing is just
         | staggering. Consider these claims:
         | 
         | - There should be an accredited-author-ornly "kernel wikipedia"
         | which the main one can choose to incorporate, almost like
         | release vs staging branches.
         | 
         | - Different subfield way wish to keep their own intentionally
         | biased corpuses, like https://ncatlab.org/nlab/
         | 
         | - After 6 months, virtually no one should have to read the
         | original research article, because the librarian core will have
         | incorporated it's results claims (however controversial) into
         | the appropriate articles
         | 
         | - Textbooks / "knowledge bootstrap plans" should be
         | continuously updated from the encyclopedia, not unlike how
         | bootstrapping is managed in a package repo
         | 
         | - Librarians do the work, but also adjudicate disputes, as
         | researchers will be naturally incentivized to contest how their
         | work is incorporated as that is the primary way it is consumed.
        
           | MaxBarraclough wrote:
           | > There should be an accredited-author-ornly "kernel
           | wikipedia"
           | 
           | This is roughly what the _Citizendium_ project was aiming
           | for. Sadly it seems it 's not doing well these days.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizendium
           | 
           | https://en.citizendium.org/wiki/Citizendium
        
             | Ericson2314 wrote:
             | Exactly! The fact of the matter is Accreditation and the
             | State go hand-in-hand. You can go full anarchism like
             | Wikipedia (and thats' great!) but if you want something a
             | bit more curated, a bit more "official", you need officers
             | (by the etymology even!) and you need funding, i.e. state
             | support.
        
           | craftinator wrote:
           | > In other words, academia is sowing the seeds of its own
           | demise
           | 
           | This is first order thinking. Yes, if an increasingly large
           | quantity of academic research is becoming bullshit,
           | eventually the ratio of good to bad research will reach an
           | inflection point where policy will be set that reduces
           | research funding.
           | 
           | This reduction in funding will have many effects, but the
           | largest will be that as funding becomes a scarce resource, a
           | higher curation of both researchers and topics will come into
           | effect. There will be less research and papers overall, but
           | the largest decrease in research will be those that are
           | bullshit.
           | 
           | Finally, as more and more research will be fruitful and
           | useful, and fewer and fewer bullshit papers are published, an
           | inflection point will be reached. There will be more funding
           | allocated to these exciting new areas of study, and more
           | research will happen. Of course, with funding no longer a
           | scarce resource, less curation will occur, and a few more
           | bullshit papers will be published... And the cycle will have
           | advanced one wavelength.
           | 
           | It's been happening for years, centuries, as a basic economic
           | cycle, and looks something like this: _/T\\_/T\\_/T\
        
             | Ericson2314 wrote:
             | I'm thinking hire-order too, but I subscribe to the idea at
             | the start of
             | https://pedestrianobservations.com/2020/08/29/recession-
             | and-...
             | 
             | > Question. In what ways can a recession be useful for
             | forcing inefficient public-sector agencies to lay off
             | redundant workers and reduce bloat?
             | 
             | > Answer. None.
             | 
             | And keep in mind that academia might as well be considered
             | public sector, but the idea transcends to most large-
             | scale/loosely-planned cost cutting for efficiency gain
             | schemes.
             | 
             | Your starting point is a lot on individual virtue, and bad
             | apples crowding out the good. I don't disagree that some
             | researches are better and some are worse, but I think that
             | any "cure" is going to be gamed and worse than the disease.
             | 
             | > but the largest will be that as funding becomes a scarce
             | resource, a higher curation of both researchers and topics
             | will come into effect
             | 
             | Do you have any evidence of this? I disagree in the
             | strongest of terms. By my reckoning, curation,
             | preventation, and other "forsight-drive" work is
             | persistently undervalue by our society and economy. The
             | nastiness that will accompany shrinking funding as research
             | groups fight for _short-term_ survival will only make that
             | worse.
             | 
             | > but the largest decrease in research will be those that
             | are bullshit
             | 
             | Why would those who are the best at gaming incentives now
             | loose that skill?
             | 
             | > It's been happening for years, centuries, as a basic
             | economic cycle, and looks something like this:
             | _/T\\_/T\\_/T\
             | 
             | So after centuries of Byzantine decline, there is new group
             | of lean and mean Greek Constantinopolitan bureaucrats?
             | 
             | After the Spain grew rich on New World bullion and then
             | poor with a dearth of industrialization there is a new
             | generation of hyper-efficient factories putting Germany to
             | shame?
             | 
             | I dunno what history you are reading, but the good actors
             | never outlive the broken system and get the last laugh in
             | mine.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | "Science advances one funeral at a time"
         | 
         | -- paraphrased from Max Planck
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | Or even more reductionist there are only a finite amount of
         | talented and smart people ever in history doing truely new and
         | interesting stuff.
         | 
         | It's just the nature of the game. You can't just turn a dial
         | and add more talent.
         | 
         | Although a bit off topic there are some authoritarian nation
         | states who tried to do this by social engineering. Soviet Union
         | made being an engineer a common place job title and China is
         | trying to make tons of super smart kids at STEM. But we all
         | know there is more to being smart than forcing kids to go down
         | certain academic route and get top end scores (you know the
         | whole creative side and capacity for original works to be
         | created).
         | 
         | The democratic approach still seems to be the winner (not just
         | due to brain). It's as I mention always going to be a small
         | minority who do great things. That doesn't scale up
         | artificially.
        
           | vosper wrote:
           | > Or even more reductionist there are only a finite amount of
           | talented and smart people ever in history doing truely new
           | and interesting stuff. It's just the nature of the game. You
           | can't just turn a dial and add more talent.
           | 
           | It's true that we can't turn a dial, but there must be a vast
           | amount of human potential that goes unused every day, because
           | people are born in impoverished countries, or suffer
           | discrimination due to gender or race or something else, get
           | sick with a preventable disease, or whatever other thing
           | denies them the opportunity to make the most of themselves.
           | 
           | This is probably actually the norm in the world, not the
           | exception.
           | 
           | So I think there's rather a lot we could do as a species (or
           | within individual countries) to give people opportunities and
           | make sure potential for progress is realised
        
           | LamaOfRuin wrote:
           | Granting your premise (which I don't personally think is
           | accurate): currently every country in the world squanders a
           | massive amount of talent by not providing opportunity, even
           | starting at the most basic level of universal food security
           | and healthcare. You may not be able to infinitely turn a dial
           | and add more talent (or productive research/innovation), but
           | that doesn't mean our many dials are anywhere near their
           | maximum levels either.
        
           | sigotirandolas wrote:
           | Another closely related possibility is that a lot of
           | processes in science are inherently serial, i.e. they can't
           | scale with the number of researchers, because they require
           | slowly integrating information and making consecutive steps
           | of progress.
           | 
           | Maybe after say, quantum computers are available, it takes
           | around 25 years for a team of researchers to slowly make
           | progress and integrate information until they find a killer
           | application. Funding 25 teams of researchers may make them
           | pump out papers 25x faster, but they aren't going to find the
           | killer application in 1 year.
        
           | mattkrause wrote:
           | > You can't just turn a dial and add more talent.
           | 
           | I'm not sure I agree there. It's notoriously hard to get/keep
           | a research position, especially a) in academia and b) outside
           | CS. There are a decent number of graduate student slots, some
           | postdocs, and then you're thrown into the thunder dome.
           | 
           | The competition itself--and the resulting uncertainty--chases
           | a lot of people into other careers. The people in my grad
           | school cohort who "left" research were just as smart and
           | often just as successful (in terms of papers, etc) as those
           | that stayed.
           | 
           | It's not hard to imagine some policy tweaks that could have
           | kept some of them in research.
        
         | abathur wrote:
         | I think I agree with a large chunk of this: there are
         | inevitably triage/discovery problems as the number of
         | things/options go up.
         | 
         | The cost of evaluating each remains fairly constant, and at
         | some point production outstrips the ability of even extremely-
         | interested/dedicated individuals to have a good handle on it
         | all. Beyond this point, you either need organized collective
         | effort (and trust) to efficiently distribute the work of
         | keeping up (and synthesize the results) or the larger community
         | will be wasting ever-increasing slices of potential energy to
         | extract increasingly less knowledge of the scope of activity.
         | 
         | But there's a difference between simple volume growth for good
         | reasons (i.e., people chasing incentives that are aligned at
         | multiple levels of society), and volume growth caused by people
         | chasing incentives that are misaligned at one or more points up
         | the stack.
         | 
         | If the researchers are spending their time on things even they
         | find boring _because Goodhart 's law_, I think it is important
         | to recognize it and try to undo the misaligned incentives.
         | They're not only externalizing a cost on their entire field of
         | knowledge--but we're also collectively suffering some ill-
         | defined opportunity cost of whatever it was they would've spent
         | their time on if they were following curiosity.
        
         | azhenley wrote:
         | Are papers getting more boring or does the reader just find
         | less novels things to read as they read more and more? Maybe
         | the reader is bored of the field in general. The 500th time you
         | do anything isn't as exciting as the 5th time.
         | 
         | On another note, why does everything have to be exciting? Small
         | incremental improvements over the years is what I aim for.
        
         | patrec wrote:
         | > One answer to all these propositions is that the valuable
         | stuff is still there
         | 
         | I don't understand the popularity of this argument. Whilst
         | someone might (theoretically) have written the Great American
         | Novel in his or her basement unbeknownst to pretty much anyone,
         | a lot of art is fairly resource intensive and thus you can say
         | with extremely high confidence that's its not being produced
         | and the fault lies not with people not looking hard enough.
         | Same with research and journalism.
        
         | Bakary wrote:
         | >It's an illusion to expect that every researcher can pump out
         | multiple really interesting non-boring papers every year. So we
         | pretend. We write, we cite, we present, overiflate, overpromise
         | etc. It must look like there is steady hard noble work and
         | toil. It's like a ritual. The scientists are writing all these
         | papers so tax payers can sleep well that their money is paid
         | for hard work.
         | 
         | The flip-side to this is that there is a glut of moderately
         | motivated scientists and PhD candidates. As a result, the
         | demand for conferences and citations is self-sustaining to meet
         | the expectations of millions of people wanting to enter the
         | academic world without a clear plan beyond joining the world
         | itself.
         | 
         | It's as though the English-major-to-professor cycle has also
         | become a reality in the hard sciences.
        
           | danielheath wrote:
           | Perhaps it varies by specialty/region, but I have a good
           | friend in the sciences here in Australia; funding has dried
           | right up.
           | 
           | This year, less than 10% of NHMRC grant applications got
           | approved, and of the ones approved most spent nearly as much
           | time on grant applications as they did on the real work.
           | Anyone who is only moderately motivated has retrained,
           | because working for low pay half of the year is not appealing
           | to anyone who can pass any doctorate program.
           | 
           | Even if you took the position that only the good ones are
           | getting funded, spending 50% of your 'good' researchers time
           | is a tragic waste of human ability.
        
           | semi-extrinsic wrote:
           | In 1916, J.J. Thomson (as in Thomson scattering; discoverer
           | of the electron) said it perfectly [1]:
           | 
           | "If you pay a man a salary for doing research, he and you
           | will want to have something to point to at the end of the
           | year to show that the money has not been wasted. In promising
           | work of the highest class, however, results do not come in
           | this regular fashion, in fact years may pass without any
           | tangible result being obtained, and the position of the paid
           | worker would be very embarrassing and he would naturally take
           | to work on a lower, or at any rate a different plane where he
           | could be sure of getting year by year tangible results which
           | would justify his salary. The position is this: You want one
           | kind of research, but, if you pay a man to do it, it will
           | drive him to research of a different kind. The only thing to
           | do is to pay him for doing something else and give him enough
           | leisure to do research for the love of it."
           | 
           | [1] https://archive.org/details/b29932208 - see pages
           | 198-200, ref HN comment:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21388715
        
             | Bakary wrote:
             | I was thinking more along the lines of people who are not
             | suited to do research in the first place. This will either
             | be those who join the academic world out of inertia
             | following their educational path or class/cultural
             | pressure, or those who dislike the general labor market and
             | want to enter the academic world due to its
             | particularities.
             | 
             | On a speculative note: I believe it's yet another argument
             | in favor of UBI
        
         | barrkel wrote:
         | This is a bit off-topic to papers, but perhaps there's an
         | angle.
         | 
         |  _One answer to all these propositions is that the valuable
         | stuff is still there, you just have an additional flood of
         | mediocre boring predictable stuff._
         | 
         | I don't think this is true for most things with a mass market.
         | I think products which have efficiencies of scale - or low
         | marginal costs of reproduction - suck up more capital, which
         | raises certain basic levels of standards and polish and
         | marketing, but also greatly increases capital risk and thus
         | reduces investor risk appetite for product novelty. These mass
         | market products starve the mid-market of attention, which makes
         | the mid-market less capital efficient, which means the mid-
         | market needs to get cheaper and cheaper, lose polish, until
         | it's less attractive to the mass market of consumers, and so on
         | in a spiral until a certain spartan rawness becomes its own
         | aesthetic - indie games, indie films, indie music.
         | 
         | I think there's a concrete example which demonstrates the
         | actual absence of that long tail of interesting content, and
         | not just that it's harder to find: blogs.
         | 
         | Blogs were great in the mid 2000s. The market did two things:
         | it matured - the best blogs got more mindshare and turned into
         | something closer to media organizations, much more capital
         | intensive with full time paid writers, while and Facebook and
         | Twitter sucked up the mass market of newsfeed consumers, both
         | on the producer and consumer side, making it easier to produce
         | low-value inanities and easier to consume tidbits from
         | celebrities. This sucked the air of attention from blogs; being
         | long-form, they were too hard to write and too long to read;
         | and being unpaid, they didn't have slick editors or snazzy
         | design. So a lot of them shrivelled up. There are still niche
         | blogs, plenty of them, but a _lot_ fewer - and we can track
         | this loss, because we have (or had) them in our newsreaders.
        
           | jononor wrote:
           | To explain blogs you also have to factor in the moves toward
           | more image and video centric content, I think.
        
         | skizm wrote:
         | Music is becoming more generic because musicians can rapidly
         | reach a wide audience and iterate quickly, so they see what
         | works and what doesn't and continue down the path of sound that
         | produces the most money.
        
       | reilly3000 wrote:
       | The people who fund research look too hard for ROI. The funds
       | that get invested into research buy hours of time of people doing
       | research and maybe gear. They cannot buy discoveries. Until this
       | mismatch is addressed broadly, we will continue to have both a
       | reproducibility crisis and 'boring' papers.
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | There is a lot of caution in research funding. Some research is
         | considered "safe", whereas others risky. IN a properly balanced
         | portfolio, perhaps 80% of funding should go to safe work and
         | the remaining 20% to more risky, but potentially high-reward
         | studies. However this isn't how funding agencies usually
         | operate.
         | 
         | At least in the context of the U.S. government, funding
         | agencies are terrified of being seen as "wasting" funding,
         | because that is a sure way to have funding cut by congress. The
         | "Golden Fleece" awards, a congressman's attack on perceived
         | frivolous spending, have routinely been targeted at specific
         | research funded by the NSF and have helped make the agency
         | afraid of being attacked by congress.
        
         | bsf_ wrote:
         | I believe this is close to the truth. Moving one step further
         | upstream, the emphasis on high ROI stems from an overall lack
         | of availability of funding. Since there isn't enough money to
         | go around, it becomes necessary to choose some more selective
         | metric to pare down the pool of grant applicants.
        
           | virtuallynathan wrote:
           | Do we just have too many people doing "science"? Clearly
           | people are getting funding to crank out nonsense, boring
           | papers, studies that can't be replicated, etc.
        
             | bsf_ wrote:
             | Only if you believe that as a society we have solved all of
             | the interesting problems. Since this obviously is not true,
             | I would instead focus on the way we evaluate science to
             | improve it.
        
       | colincooke wrote:
       | I think peer-review is an answer, perhaps not a great one, to how
       | can we trust specialist science. In a world where the renaissance
       | man role is no longer feasible, to move science forward we must
       | narrow our focus on particular sub-fields and problems within
       | that field. One issue of this is that it becomes much harder for
       | the general science community to verify your results, which is
       | where peer review attempts to help, by forcing you to get other
       | experts in your sub-field to review your work before it can be
       | stamped as trusted.
       | 
       | Does it work? Kind of. I've personally seen papers in reputable
       | journals that while not fradulant, are pretty misleading. At the
       | same time however I'm yet to see a workable alternative that
       | fixes the trust issue.
       | 
       | The question of boringness I think is pretty field dependent. In
       | the ML community I've often seen papers almost be rejected by the
       | peer review system because they're NOT exciting enough, despite
       | them being pretty influential (a great example is AdamW [1]).
       | 
       | Honestly my assesment of peer review is that not enough trainees
       | (read: grad students/post docs) are doing reviewing. Trainees are
       | often better acquainted with the details of methods, but also
       | have a more open mind to accept a finding that could go a little
       | against the grain. Additionally, they're often faster and do a
       | better job since they have more time on their hands then senior
       | researchers. There have been some efforts to fix this, but so far
       | mostly isolated to specific fields.
       | 
       | [1] https://openreview.net/forum?id=Bkg6RiCqY7
        
       | jpmattia wrote:
       | > _The peer-reviewed research papers allows you to "measure"
       | productivity. How many papers in top-tier venues did research X
       | produce? And that is why it grew so strong._
       | 
       | If I were king, my rule would be to look at the number of
       | citations per paper and years of citation, rather than total
       | publication count. I think that would solve a number of issues,
       | although I'm sure that it would eventually be gamed as well.
       | 
       | I should mention though: It turns out that people have been
       | bitching about this for decades. For example: I was at Bell Labs
       | in the 90s, and there was regular lunchtime discussion about the
       | Least Publishable Increment (LPI). Everyone had some example
       | about how the LPI had decreased to near zero, and then a few wags
       | went on to show how the LPI had in fact gone negative in certain
       | subfields, not least because reviewers were overloaded and
       | couldn't keep up.
       | 
       | Hopefully, some of this will be self-correcting: Publications are
       | no longer the money-making activity they used to be, so resources
       | will begin to dry up. Eventually, pubs are going to start
       | rejecting valid papers for being too incremental.
        
         | garden_hermit wrote:
         | This is whats done in science evaluation--the H-index for
         | instance is built from a combination of publication and
         | citation counts. Similarly, journal prestige is quantified
         | using the Journal Impact Factor, which aggregates the average
         | number of citation a paper in the journal receives.
         | 
         | As you speculate, these can also be gamed. Authors will cite
         | themselves more to inflate their citations, or form citation
         | carters with other authors to cite each other's work.
         | Similarly, journals have been known to coerce authors to cite
         | other works in the venue, in order to inflate their impact
         | factor. Beyond these, there are issues with comparing citations
         | across disciplines, article type, and other contexts.
         | 
         | > Eventually, pubs are going to start rejecting valid papers
         | for being too incremental.
         | 
         | Many of hte most prestigious journals, such as Science, Nature,
         | and Cell, already do this. However newer Mega-journals, like
         | PLoS, have had explicitly the opposite policy, and state that
         | they accept anything that is "sound science", no matter the
         | size of its contribution; they have however become more
         | selective over time.
        
         | colincooke wrote:
         | Most people do actually judge by citations rather than raw
         | pubs. It's an open secret that you can shove out papers
         | (acceptance to any venue, regardless of the quality of the work
         | is probabilistic) with enough effort. Getting cites is harder
         | (other than self-cites which is a seperate issue).
         | 
         | When I look up a researcher first thing I look at is their
         | number of citations and H-10 index, then I look through their
         | top papers (the ones that have been cited a lot). As far as I
         | know hiring committees also care about these things.
         | 
         | Of course it isn't the only thing that matters, or the most
         | important, but its much more useful than raw number of papers
         | published.
        
           | mattkrause wrote:
           | Even those are garbage measures though.
           | 
           | They can be gamed (albeit with a bit more effort), they vary
           | a ton between fields and subfields, and citation rates often
           | reflect the "prestige" of the lab/authors and the trendiness
           | of the topic, rather than the intrinsic "merit" of a paper.
           | 
           | I don't think there's any good automatic proxy for research
           | quality.
        
       | tracyhenry wrote:
       | By database folks: We are Drowning in a Sea of Least Publishable
       | Units (LPUs)
       | 
       | https://researchsetup.github.io/files/lpu.pdf
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | How are there so many papers if the papers are so long and
       | complicated these days and acceptance rates so low? Econ papers
       | for example have tons of data and stat analysis and are often 50+
       | pages and have multiple authors because there is so much data to
       | crunch and so much stats involved. The era of the 5-10 page paper
       | written by a single person that make an interesting observation
       | or novel insight, is over.
        
       | zwieback wrote:
       | The good papers are still out there but it's hard to slog through
       | the mediocre or downright worthless stuff if you're not an expert
       | in the field. That's a real problem, I think, even venturing into
       | an adjacent field takes a lot of reading and sorting through the
       | chaff unless you have someone to guide you. And number of
       | citations is not a great metric to figure out what's worth
       | reading.
       | 
       | By its nature, science and R&D is very incremental though. I have
       | some sympathy for the PhD student wanting to get something
       | published (or the prof wanting to get the PhD student to publish)
       | and 5 or even 10 years is short for truly groundbreaking results.
        
       | coliveira wrote:
       | The same can be said about software development: almost the
       | totality of software developed is boring, unnecessary, and
       | sometimes wrong. That said, we still know that developing
       | software is an important activity.
        
       | dekhn wrote:
       | Nearly every "exciting" paper I've encountered in my career
       | (spanning multiple areas of biology and computer science) has
       | turned out to be much less exciting when subjected to critical
       | analysis by a team of grad students (journal club). I've found
       | that many boring papers stand up better.
        
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