[HN Gopher] EU Signs EUR145B Declaration to Develop Next Gen Pro...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       EU Signs EUR145B Declaration to Develop Next Gen Processors and 2nm
       Technology
        
       Author : simonpd
       Score  : 507 points
       Date   : 2021-01-01 12:59 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.eetimes.eu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.eetimes.eu)
        
       | jamesblonde wrote:
       | Sweden missing from here is a surprise. We have Ericsson who
       | still design their own chips for telecom devices - one of the few
       | companies left in Europe to do so. And Volvo and Scania might be
       | interested for self-driving cars.
        
         | ourlordcaffeine wrote:
         | Volvo cars is now Chinese owned. Swedish Volvo only do HGVs.
        
       | allie1 wrote:
       | Intel must be thrilled
        
       | imtringued wrote:
       | I'd like to see more government investment into domestic
       | industries, however I believe that the semiconductor
       | manufacturing market is already heavily saturated. R&D is welcome
       | but beyond ensuring independence from foreign manufacturing there
       | are not that many benefits that you would expect from this
       | example of government stimulus. This industry primarily hires
       | high skilled workers but unless they also directly fund the
       | education of those high skilled workers it's not going to result
       | in less underemployment.
       | 
       | I mean come on, the existing semiconductor industry in the EU has
       | found it's niche. It's already well developed. If there really
       | was a shortage of domestic semiconductor products then these
       | companies would have been able to make a killing with their local
       | fabs because corona related shipping restrictions resulted in a
       | lack of supply from foreign nations. They wouldn't need the
       | government stimulus and stand on their own.
       | 
       | It would make more sense to use this government stimulus on
       | reducing CO2 emissions because most nations do not have economic
       | incentives for reducing CO2 emissions. With our current economic
       | models environmentalism amounts to charity and charity is one
       | thing the government is very good at. The reason why I bring up
       | CO2 reductions is because they are inherently domestic. You
       | cannot put CO2 or electricity on a container ship and move the
       | problem to a different country. A lot of the work also involves
       | simple manual labor which helps with the underemployment problem
       | for low skilled workers.
        
         | ginko wrote:
         | >however I believe that the semiconductor manufacturing market
         | is already heavily saturated
         | 
         | Is it? It seems to be headed for a TSMC monopoly as far as I
         | can see.
        
           | m4rtink wrote:
           | Not to mention the current supply issues for gaming console
           | chips and GPUs - unless it's a very temporary blip it looks
           | like insufficient production of the most cutting edge chips &
           | all that on top of the TSMC monopoly.
        
             | monkeydust wrote:
             | Indeed. More on that here if your interested
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25466561
        
       | Roritharr wrote:
       | So, we're getting an Airbus for Chips?
       | 
       | Or will it more be like our Ariane missiles?
        
         | rapsey wrote:
         | I am sure most of the money will somehow get into the hands of
         | Airbus, Siemens and so on
        
         | m4rtink wrote:
         | >Or will it more be like our Ariane missiles? It's rude to call
         | it a missile just because they launched one on the wrong
         | azimuth recently. ;-)
         | 
         | Also given the success rate of the related Vega rocket, it
         | would not be a very dependable missile anyway.
        
           | andi999 wrote:
           | Yes, isnt it normally called a launcher?
        
         | ahartmetz wrote:
         | Ariane has / had a similar reputation to Airbus, the only
         | problem with it is that SpaceX lapped everyone. There were some
         | really bad European projects in IT though, like that big search
         | engine project, Quaero, that didn't deliver any end-user
         | product in eight years and was then cancelled.
        
       | nikivi wrote:
       | Are there any companies in EU who are developing chips now? I
       | only know ASML but that only makes the wafers.
       | 
       | I ask as I can't imagine the government doing this. So there must
       | be some company behind this deal.
        
         | Kosirich wrote:
         | Zeiss does a lot of work for microchip industry.(lithography)
        
         | xiphias2 wrote:
         | They could get into chip dev for that amount of investment
         | money. But of course EU will just waste the money as always.
        
           | bayindirh wrote:
           | > But of course EU will just waste the money as always.
           | 
           | As someone working in HPC and EU projects related to this
           | subject, I don't think they'll waste it. Current HPC and
           | processor push is very real now.
        
             | hydroreadsstuff wrote:
             | As someone who worked in HPC Projects in the EU, I'd say
             | the vast majority of the grants is wasted. E.g. on
             | 
             | - obscure software and programming paradigms/libraries
             | 
             | - one-off's
             | 
             | - projects that create only reports, papers and
             | recommendations
             | 
             | - endless recreations of the same software over the years
             | and decades
             | 
             | - plain dumb projects
             | 
             | - attempts at recreating other people's software (e.g.
             | U.S.)
             | 
             | There is also a large amount of overlap in work/content
             | between projects, and lots of time is appropriated for
             | unrelated work e.g. employees working on their PhDs.
             | 
             | On the other hand the industry takes a lot more money and
             | plays similar games.
             | 
             | Project partners do not take the right path, because it's
             | not conducive to fulfilling a grant, getting the next grant
             | or increasing your citation count. The incentives are
             | wrong.
        
             | xiphias2 wrote:
             | EU's decreasing GDP share in the world shows that EU is
             | wasting lots of money by trying to pick winners. Just
             | having low tax for small tech companies like in Shanghai
             | would incentivize people to work on new great ideas, but I
             | don't see it happening.
        
               | QuesnayJr wrote:
               | The EU spends less time picking winners than countries
               | did back in the pre-EU days. If you take that evidence at
               | face value, it suggests that the EU isn't trying to pick
               | enough winners.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | Technology is always pushed by states, not small
               | companies. Small companies can figure out how to market
               | and reduce costs, but have never successfully created
               | new, advanced technology.
        
               | nickpp wrote:
               | Saying this while waiting for the new savior vaccine with
               | a brand new mRNA technology pushed by two startups:
               | Moderna & BioNTech is just... funny.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | No, that's a great example of what I'm saying. The
               | vaccine is payed for by states - they had a 100%
               | guaranteed worldwide market. Whether they invested their
               | own money (like BioNTech) or were explicitly financed by
               | a state (like Moderna and Pfizer), the money for that
               | research will ultimately be payed almost entirely by the
               | state.
        
               | xiphias2 wrote:
               | States are making monopolies with their militaries. I
               | don't need a state to buy the vaccine, actually I signed
               | up for a private vaccination, and I would pay
               | significantly more than the states, but states are given
               | priority because of their power.
        
               | creato wrote:
               | I think there are more differences than militaries
               | between states and what is essentially kickstarter.
        
               | nickpp wrote:
               | No. States are simply clients, buyers of the end-product.
               | Investors included VCs and states. But the Tech was built
               | by the startups.
        
         | hydroreadsstuff wrote:
         | Infineon, X-Fab (formerly ZMD) are coming to my mind.
         | 
         | Not sure you would include foreign companies with plants in the
         | EU. Nexperia, TI, GloFo.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat...
         | 
         | Aside from that I'd expected chip designers like ARM
         | (+licensees), Bull Atos (would you call that an OEM?) and
         | related software companies to take part in this.
        
         | bayindirh wrote:
         | This is the tipping of old European Processor Initiative as far
         | as I can see. They can either leverage ARM or OpenPOWER I
         | guess.
         | 
         | I don't think they'll start a new ISA from scratch.
        
         | Pietertje wrote:
         | ASML does lithography, they do not make wafers. NXP develops
         | chips, especially for automotive industry.
         | 
         | There are also some small companies focusing on photonics in
         | NL, Smart Photonics is one of them for example.
        
         | farseer wrote:
         | ASML makes the equipment to etch on wafers. The best in the
         | world I believe. ASML has thousands of suppliers in the EU.
        
         | mkl wrote:
         | ASML makes photolithography machines, including the EUV
         | machines TSMC will be using for 3nm chips.
        
         | yvdriess wrote:
         | Most precompetitive research in the semi industry also happens
         | at Imec in Belgium.
         | 
         | The ASML litho machines are a single step in even just the
         | wafer production process, there are several companies involved
         | in making and processing masks, doing the etching, cleaning
         | solutions, etc. As many industries, it's a highly globalized
         | supply chain, with many companies distributed around the world
         | specializing and leading different aspects. And yes, several of
         | them are in the EU.
         | 
         | As to why the governments would do this, well it's geopolitics.
         | The EU has some big players in the industry, but other parts of
         | the supply chain are elsewhere. When all big geopolitical
         | powers are interdependent, then no player will move to block
         | another off at risk of hurting themselves. Now, both China and
         | the US are shoveling billions into developing a higher
         | independence (even before the trade war). Likely, the EU feels
         | it is now forced to follow suit, or risk having e.g. the access
         | to high-volume fabs to be a bargaining chip in future trade
         | negotiations.
        
         | archi42 wrote:
         | Yes, there are. One of our project partners (in a different EU
         | project) has a fab for large structures. I don't know what I
         | can legally share beyond that, and also don't want to put wrong
         | info here since I don't know the hardware details well enough
         | (did software work higher up the stack and only have to care
         | for the ISA) ;)
        
         | iagovar wrote:
         | NXP, Infineon and STM are the three major in Europe, although
         | STM is Swiss/Italian.
        
           | _ph_ wrote:
           | STM is also very strongly French.
           | 
           | And these three are only the largest pure-semiconductor
           | companies. There are many dozens of smaller companies and
           | quite some fabs. A lot of automotive electronics is done by
           | European companies. Also, many international semiconductor
           | companies have development sites in Europe.
        
             | gpderetta wrote:
             | STM was originally Italo-French; it is a public company
             | these days, whose headquartier is in Switzerland (as a
             | neutral territory I guess), but the major shareholder
             | (which is incorporated in Nederland) is still jointly owned
             | directly by the Italian and French governments, and major
             | production and reasearch sites are still in these
             | countries. So, it is complicated
        
       | bshanks wrote:
       | If 50% of this is loans and 50% are grants, and if all of the
       | grants are over 3 years, then that's 145/(2*3) = 24.17 billion
       | Euros in grants per year, or $29.33 billion dollars per year. By
       | contrast, in the US, US National Science Foundation (NSF) is the
       | grant-giving agency for most basic science/math research in the
       | US, except biology which is under a different agency (NIH) (also
       | I think DOE funds some energy-related research)) total budget is
       | $8.3 billion per year. So if these assumptions are correct, then
       | this initiative alone is over 3.5x the total US NSF budget.
       | 
       | This is not completely an apples-to-apples comparison because
       | this is obviously applied rather than basic research.
        
       | jononor wrote:
       | Article says this is for 2-3 years? Seems crazy. Semi-conductor
       | R&D is something where I would expect commitments to be 10 years
       | or more, not just a couple of years...
        
         | corty wrote:
         | Just pork. Commitment is irrelevant because no real results are
         | expected. Also, election terms make any real commitment
         | unlikely, because results will only come for your successor in
         | office.
        
         | simias wrote:
         | It's not like we're starting from scratch though, we already
         | have companies and people with ample experience in this field.
         | Not to say that it's not a huge bar to clear or that I don't
         | expect massive delays but I think it's a good thing overall.
        
           | noir_lord wrote:
           | I mean until recently ARM was based in an EU country.
        
             | danieldk wrote:
             | And there are still a lot of relevant European companies.
             | ASML, STMicroelectronics (which is Swiss, but is spread
             | across many EU countries as well), NXP, Infineon, Bosch
             | (sensors & semiconductors), etc.
        
         | zhdc1 wrote:
         | The funding is only for two years, and it looks like this is an
         | extension to an initiative that started in 2018.
         | 
         | I don't think they expect to build a 2nm fab by 2023.
        
       | eric_khun wrote:
       | The world starts realising all the processors that everyone
       | depends on is mainly from Taiwan. I just wrote an article[1]
       | about the importance of processors and talking about key players
       | such that help the semis industry such ASML, and why it's not
       | that simple to get into the game. . It's not as easy as pouring
       | money into some companies. Sourcing trusted partners + years
       | (decades?) of R&D might be needed to achieve what TSMC did in
       | Taiwan
       | 
       | [1] https://erickhun.com/posts/world-innovation-taiwan-
       | semicondu...
        
         | tasogare wrote:
         | I hope governments, including EU, will realize that and help
         | (commercially, diplomatically and of course militarily) Taiwan
         | not being invaded by its greedy neighbor.
        
       | rapsey wrote:
       | Just a giveaway to the best politically connected companies. Like
       | all such EU initiatives.
        
         | simias wrote:
         | Such a tiresome and self-defeating mindset. If the EU does
         | nothing it's useless, if it does something it's just
         | corruption.
         | 
         | Of course politics and lobbying will play a role when we're
         | talking about hundreds of billions of euros, but that doesn't
         | mean that it can't end up being a net positive for the union.
         | 
         | Ask for transparency and keep tabs, don't assume that it's
         | already lost.
        
           | LudwigNagasena wrote:
           | > If the EU does nothing it's useless, if it does something
           | it's just corruption.
           | 
           | Well, surely there are other ways to try to improve things
           | besides doing nothing and bureaucratic grant schemes.
        
           | xondono wrote:
           | Because what the EU countries need to do is to get out of the
           | way.
        
           | flembat wrote:
           | We can do more than one thing at a time, so the EU can be
           | both useless and corrupt.
        
           | rapsey wrote:
           | This mindset is born out of seeing how the game is played and
           | where the money goes from past initiatives. Why would this
           | one be in any way different?
           | 
           | To quote a very rich and slimey asshole I've interacted with
           | who's income is largely from such initiatives. It's just
           | money for papers.
        
             | yulaow wrote:
             | Almost any "federal government" branch in any national or
             | transnational entity works that way. They still get results
             | good enough to push technology forward by encouraging
             | parallel private investments.
             | 
             | I mean the whole USA tech sector was basically bootstrapped
             | by federal money/grants/investments given in no different
             | way of what EU is doing right now.
        
               | LudwigNagasena wrote:
               | > USA tech sector was basically bootstrapped by federal
               | money/grants/investments given in no different way of
               | what EU is doing right now
               | 
               | There are MANY different ways to channel money into
               | business or non-profit R&D. I doubt you can ignore all
               | the differences and declare that what the US and the EU
               | do or did is the same.
               | 
               | I am not saying it doesn't exist, but I am personally not
               | aware of any similar multibillion declaration made by the
               | US.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | And even earlier, in chemical and advanced manufacturing
               | space - just how many of the well-known US companies
               | started as small shops that got their hands on government
               | grants during WWII?
        
               | cinquemb wrote:
               | > ... government grants during WWII
               | 
               | Seems like we're missing some "proper"
               | motivation/focus/constraints now like war on this scale
               | can provide... not just the EU, but this kind of diktat-
               | innovation is increasingly more present everywhere...
               | 
               | Probably goes hand in hand with the ever present bailout
               | olympics for those deemed TBTF...
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | I used to believe the "proper motivation" - like winning
               | the war - mattered. Then I read "War Is a Racket", a 1935
               | short book by US general Smedley Darlington Butler, which
               | in many places argues that even during an active war,
               | companies will happily steal and squander the war
               | funding. So now I'm not sure how much you can expect from
               | such motivation.
               | 
               | Probably it's best to assume that some amount of graft
               | will always happen, just dump the money, and hope
               | something good comes out of it...
        
               | cinquemb wrote:
               | Well i'm not sure gunboat diplomacy and banana/global
               | policing wars provide sufficient motivation compared to
               | total wars... can only steal and squander so much before
               | your factories get bombed and supply chains crippled.
               | 
               | I would agree if only the money dumps stopped ending up
               | going mostly in the same places... lol
        
             | rhn_mk1 wrote:
             | Why don't you instead quote a source that proves that it's
             | a pointless giveaway? Without it, your post seems like mud
             | slinging.
        
             | vincnetas wrote:
             | Ask for transparency and report slimey assholes. If you
             | want the change, be the change.
        
               | rapsey wrote:
               | Yeah sure lemme go against a guy with half the government
               | in his pocket. Life is not a movie.
        
               | makomk wrote:
               | Reporting corruption only works if there's someone to
               | report it to who has both the power and the political
               | will to actually do something about it. That simply does
               | not exist within the EU as an institution. I don't think
               | it's possible to easily explain exactly what's wrong with
               | the EU's accountability and anti-corruption structures;
               | endless column inches have been spent on the problems,
               | mostly in somewhat niche publications and read mainly by
               | people deeply interested in EU politics. (Which may also
               | be part of the problem. Even before Brexit, few cared,
               | and the political polarization around Brexit has pushed
               | the idea that the EU has structural problems outside the
               | realm of mainstream discourse. Take a look at the
               | comments in this HN discussion for example!)
        
           | baxtr wrote:
           | Can you name examples of EU initiatives on that level that
           | delivered the desired results?
           | 
           | EDIT: I am asking because I seriously want to know. I haven't
           | made up my mind yet what to think about the whole thing. I am
           | not familiar with successful EU initiatives. I'm open in
           | believing this can work if there were successful examples in
           | the past.
        
             | agumonkey wrote:
             | I thought Airbus was one.
        
               | WanderPanda wrote:
               | You mean that resource wasting shop, that is sending huge
               | airplane parts all across Europe for political reasons? I
               | don't even want to start about the subsidies considered
               | illegal by the wto...
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | Well, it seems to be competitive with Boeing & no one
               | else really stepped up doing it the "proper" way so far.
        
               | ju-st wrote:
               | Well, Boeing is doing the same things. Transporting 737
               | fuselages through the US and illegal subsidies. And I'm
               | not even mentioning the 737 debacle.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | Maybe those are just table stakes in this sort of market
        
               | WanderPanda wrote:
               | Isn't that the kind of outcome you would expect from such
               | a monopoly (/duopoly)? Even if a company could be more
               | efficient it would not make sense for them to try to
               | compete
        
             | mschuster91 wrote:
             | > I am not familiar with successful EU initiative.
             | 
             | The EU Cohesion Fund is one. Since 2007, ~133 billion EUR
             | got invested in the poorer countries of the EU to improve
             | trans-european traffic infrastructure (TEN, aka road, rail,
             | waterways) and environmental projects (e.g. villages hooked
             | up to proper sewage pipes with treatment plants at the end,
             | instead of dumping sewage to the groundwater / into rivers
             | and seas).
        
               | rapsey wrote:
               | EU funds for improving infrastructure is the only money
               | that actually is not mostly money down the drain.
               | Unfortunately programmes that don't have such concrete
               | outcomes (like this one) are entirely different.
        
               | Lionga wrote:
               | Yet after spending 133 billion EUR the vast majority of
               | Romanian, Bulgarian and many more countries villages do
               | not have sewage pipes for example
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | In Croatia, they did, just saw a big sign in the hood
               | when I went there for a funeral in the summer (which is
               | what actually inspired me to write this comment).
        
               | rapsey wrote:
               | I don't know how much the EU spent, but over here EU
               | money payed for a frankly crazy amount of fiber optic
               | cable. Completely common for a house far from any urban
               | centre to have fiber internet.
        
               | csunbird wrote:
               | Which I found that very amusing, because Germany is
               | suffering from really bad and expensive cable/copper
               | internet all over the place.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | Is this actually true?
               | 
               | I've visited several small towns in Romania, and all
               | plumbing was in good order. It's not like a country stuck
               | in 15th century. Are you talking about 'villages' of like
               | 5 people?
        
               | Someone wrote:
               | Even if that's true (which I wouldn't know), I don't see
               | how that can be sufficient to declare a project that aims
               | to improve things a failure.
               | 
               | Let's assume that project was for the poorest 10% of the
               | EU. That would be 44 million people. EUR133 billion
               | divided by 44 million is about EUR3000 per inhabitant.
               | 
               | I don't think one can expect such an amount to bring
               | roads, rails, bridges, and sewage treatment systems up to
               | standards of the richest parts of the EU.
        
             | lvice wrote:
             | I think the Erasmus initiative is an outstanding EU
             | programme, which helped collaboration between EU
             | universities and to build a EU identity for young educated
             | students. It's not an economic initiative per se, and it's
             | hard to measure its effective results objectively, but I
             | believe it's been an absolute net positive for the EU.
        
             | rsynnott wrote:
             | Airbus is the obvious one; successfully broke a foreign
             | near-monopoly. TSMC would be playing the role of Boeing,
             | here.
             | 
             | I'm not sure if this will work, but I do think that
             | something needs to be done by _someone_, even if not
             | Europe. TSMC having a global near-monopoly on high-end fab
             | is obviously not long-term viable. That's a bad situation
             | for _everyone_.
        
           | Neputys wrote:
           | aaand here's a typical representative of said companies
           | "positive for the union", "ask for transparency"...
        
           | wwwwwwwww wrote:
           | > If the EU does nothing it's useless, if it does something
           | it's just corruption.
           | 
           | Wrong.
           | 
           | Its not about "doing something", its about doing the right
           | thing. And they don't.
        
             | smhg wrote:
             | Even if done inefficient (to which standard?) the current
             | state of doing things can be a net positive.
        
         | FpUser wrote:
         | To me it looks more like they're trying to get more
         | technological independence. Right now they're at the mercy of
         | the US and China in many areas and as the result are target to
         | political pressure. Reducing one's dependency does not hurt.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | It doesn't hurt but it's not an economic miracle either, it's
           | a luxury if it isn't self sustaining.
        
             | FpUser wrote:
             | How do you know it will not sustain itself further down the
             | road.
        
         | Guthur wrote:
         | Are you a citizen of the EU to even care?
        
           | wwwwwwwww wrote:
           | Do you do nationaly checks before allowing people to have an
           | opinion?
        
       | LoSboccacc wrote:
       | 2nm tech, and not only just the tech, but the whole fab for it in
       | two-three years?
       | 
       | that how eu is spending 145 _billions_ while allocating 1bn to
       | fighting covid?
        
         | scotty79 wrote:
         | I don't mind that at all.
         | 
         | Covid requres just one vaccine and a bit of time and disrupts
         | mostly businesses that produce just human powered entertainment
         | (and health services which is the worst thing about it).
         | 
         | While making the whole new generation of most important
         | machines and landing beyond current cutting edge seem like both
         | pricey and worthwhile endeavor.
        
           | LoSboccacc wrote:
           | bold to assume any new generation machine will come out of
           | this, meanwhile real business that produced real wealth are
           | closing down.
        
             | scotty79 wrote:
             | > real business that produced real wealth are closing down.
             | 
             | Could you please share some examples? I'm genuinely
             | curious.
        
             | zhdc1 wrote:
             | Why? Europe already produces EUV lithography machines, and
             | while I'm not that familiar with the field, I'm pretty sure
             | ASML and TSMC are already working on 2nm lithography.
        
               | LoSboccacc wrote:
               | TSMC is aiming at 2024 for 2nm, they're the market leader
               | and they reportedly started research back in 2019
               | 
               | https://wccftech.com/tsmc-2nm-research-taiwan/
               | 
               | https://wccftech.com/ssmc-mass-produce-2nm-2024/
               | 
               | now a consortium of runner ups not only hopes to catch
               | up, but plans a parallel release of a new node size,
               | while starting later, while starting with less know how.
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | > allocating 1bn to fighting covid
         | 
         | No sure what you mean here. Seems like the EU recovery package
         | is EUR1,824B. Also, in Sept and Oct they allocated EUR87.9B in
         | financial support.
        
           | LoSboccacc wrote:
           | the SURE are bonds, not grants, idk why are you putting these
           | on the table, from the tax payer pov bonds are just temporary
           | transfers, it's the grants that will 'disappear'
        
       | nickpp wrote:
       | USA entrepreneur: I need to start a company that will attract VC
       | money. Damn, that means a company with huge potential. I better
       | start working.
       | 
       | EU entrepreneur: I need to start a company that can access these
       | juicy governmental funds. Let's see, what exactly do these
       | bureaucrats want? Hmm, sounds complicated, who do I know in the
       | approval committee? I better start calling.
       | 
       | Incentives matter.
        
       | zpeti wrote:
       | It's almost become normal now that bureaucrats get to decide
       | which social group to spend money on, or which region to renovate
       | buildings in, but the arrogance of thinking you can spend your
       | way to the most cutting edge of current technology is just the
       | next level of bureaucratic arrogance.
        
         | bzb6 wrote:
         | "bureaucratic arrogance" is a great name to define the EU. I'll
         | borrow it.
        
         | scotty79 wrote:
         | That's how we got to the current cutting edge. Research of most
         | important technological inventions of the past century was
         | funded by beaurocrats. Market is only good at figuring out how
         | to make things cheaper and in volume. Both very important
         | things. But true scientific breakthroughs that push the
         | business over next decades happen on taxpayers bill as
         | distributed by beaurocrats.
         | 
         | It sucks a bit that it's this way but if you are profit driven,
         | you can't gamble 140 billion of your own money in hopes of
         | developing new tech.
        
           | zpeti wrote:
           | Even if I agreed with you, we are talking about the cutting
           | edge of optimisation, of driving down costs, of doing things
           | in volume. The exact things you also say a market is needed
           | for.
           | 
           | We aren't talking about a military research project like
           | packet switching, or getting to the moon for the first time.
        
           | krona wrote:
           | Then by your own definition, and the statement issued by the
           | EU commission, this is a bad investment.
           | 
           | I've worked for the large, sclerotic organisations that once
           | put man on the moon. They will take your 100bn, crush it in
           | to dust, and outsource the production of 1 million pages of
           | documentation in 32 languages detailing the workings of
           | something your never asked for. All in the blink of an eye.
        
             | scotty79 wrote:
             | Yes. It's bad investment for the one who pays. Possibly
             | great for everybody else and humanity in general.
             | 
             | If efficiency is your thing go into business. The smaller
             | the better. But if you want to have a chance at literal
             | moonshot stay in your job and swallow inefficiencies that
             | come from size, ample capital, and no expectation of
             | monetary profit.
        
             | andi999 wrote:
             | Why 32 languages? I thought there is only one language in
             | the country that put a man on the moon (apart from the one
             | other language)
        
           | thu2111 wrote:
           | _Research of most important technological inventions of the
           | past century was funded by beaurocrats_
           | 
           | Important defined how?
           | 
           | The car wasn't. The mobile phone wasn't. Computers in their
           | post-WW2 form basically weren't, for the last half decade if
           | not more it's all been private sector. Yes, DARPA did some
           | very early work on packet switching networks and their work
           | became widely adopted mostly because it was free: nice. But
           | the moment these inventions started to matter, all R&D was
           | taken over by the private sector.
           | 
           | Governments spray so much money at things that I'm sure for
           | almost any broad category of thing, you can find _something_
           | they funded. But that 's no evidence that stuff would never
           | have been researched anyway, given the enormous and long term
           | R&D efforts routinely mounted by non governmental entities.
           | Look at AI: government funded institutions are constantly
           | lagging behind.
           | 
           |  _It sucks a bit that it 's this way but if you are profit
           | driven, you can't gamble 140 billion of your own money in
           | hopes of developing new tech._
           | 
           | Alphabet alone spends something like $21 billion on R&D per
           | year. It doesn't take many years of that to reach $140
           | billion, and Alphabet is not the only company doing basic
           | research.
           | 
           | Having spent many years reading research papers coming out of
           | both academia and industry, my conclusion has been that the
           | best papers are always those with corporate funding - some
           | academic teams receive partly corporate funding and these
           | tend to be in the middle, pure corporate labs tend to do the
           | most exciting work. The bureaucrat-distributed money often
           | gets allocated for decades to intellectual dead ends nobody
           | cares about, purely through inertia and lack of institutional
           | incentives to maximise ROI.
        
             | oblio wrote:
             | Companies rarely do basic research. Yes, there are
             | exceptions.
        
               | nickpp wrote:
               | Companies do plenty of research, just not basic, since
               | they don't need to: the government funds it instead. With
               | money taxed from said companies, so...
        
               | oblio wrote:
               | Yeah, us peons don't pay any taxes and corporations don't
               | evade them...
               | 
               | All those taxes are collected from companies, look at the
               | nice graph that proves it:
               | 
               | https://www.lynalden.com/wp-content/uploads/corporate-
               | tax-ra...
               | 
               | I'm being ironic, the average corporate tax rate went
               | from 40% in 1960 to 10% today.
        
           | yvdriess wrote:
           | Yep, this cannot be repeated enough. Government funding is
           | how a lot of innovations happen, but it's not as visible as a
           | private company bringing that innovation to market.
           | 
           | To put in optimization terms, private companies are good at
           | following the gradient. Government funding is necessary to
           | escape the well and find new minimas.
        
             | dahele wrote:
             | Very well put. Take AI as an example - foundational
             | research in deep learning and reinforcement learning was
             | first done in academia. Everyone knows the story of how
             | long neural networks languished in the shadows, before its
             | time. Even commercial research labs only really took note
             | after the potential of these methods was discovered.
             | 
             | Government funding is a good thing, but it'd be even better
             | would be if we could harness the free market. One solution
             | could be to equip research institutions with the means to
             | capture value from IP that follows on from basic research.
        
               | WanderPanda wrote:
               | I was thinking in a similar direction. What about an
               | adaptive patent law? Where the duration of the protection
               | in a particular area of interest can be set by e.g. a
               | committee (with a strict ruleset and a big time constant
               | of course). So when there is not much progress in a
               | certain area (e.g. cancer or nuclear fusion) the patent
               | protection is increased to incentivise investments. A
               | problem with this approach are obviously the unknown
               | unknowns, which might prevent this system from
               | incentivising inventions like the transistor. So this
               | approach can probably only help with problem driven areas
               | and not in cases where the tech innovation gives rise to
               | new problems/solutions
        
             | throw0101a wrote:
             | > _Government funding is how a lot of innovations happen,
             | but it 's not as visible as a private company bringing that
             | innovation to market._
             | 
             | A recent example of 'basic' research coming to fruition in
             | a practical fashion (eventually):
             | 
             | > _" S glycoprotein signal peptide (extended leader
             | sequence), which guides translocation of the nascent
             | polypeptide chain into the endoplasmic reticulum" - part of
             | the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine. I don't ever want to hear
             | anyone question fundamental science again. 1/2_
             | 
             | > _The level of control and understanding we now have over
             | our biology came from literally millions of person-years
             | spent working on things that at the time were obscure and
             | "useless". And now? We can leverage all this into a 95%
             | efficient vaccine _at the first try_. 2/2_
             | 
             | * https://twitter.com/PowerDNS_Bert/status/1342159339767934
             | 978
             | 
             | We have no way of knowing ahead of time what knowledge will
             | be needed or "useful" in the future, so in some ways it is
             | prudent to try to acquire as much knowledge of the natural
             | world as possible and sort it out later.
        
             | rapsey wrote:
             | Government funding is extremely wasteful and will generally
             | go into the pockets of the well connected. The problem is
             | this game has been played for a long time and it has
             | diminishing returns. The players have had decades to get
             | the exploitation down.
             | 
             | Yes sillicon valley exists because of government money. But
             | that was like 70 years ago. The world has changed and
             | corruption is more severe. You will get no such bang for
             | your government grant buck now.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | Remind me how is that WeWork and Theranos investment
               | going?
        
               | nickpp wrote:
               | Plenty of startups crash and burn. It comes with the
               | territory. What is your point?
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | No-no, this is not examples of ordinary wastefullness and
               | 'crash', these were outright fraud.
               | 
               | The exact same thing the OP accuses government grants of
               | perpetuating.
               | 
               | Your post is a perfect example that with startups that's
               | just accepted and glossed over.
        
               | nickpp wrote:
               | Well maybe because in government grants waste and fraud
               | are the rule, while in private startups they are the
               | exception.
               | 
               | And it is the investors problem when a startup fails, and
               | they are aware of it. But with governments, it is OUR
               | money squandered away by politicians and their friends.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | > Well maybe because in government grants waste and fraud
               | are the rule, while in private startups they are the
               | exception.
               | 
               | Are they really? What are the failure rates for both?
               | 
               | > But with governments, it is OUR money squandered away
               | by politicians and their friends.
               | 
               | https://qz.com/1719019/wework-and-ubers-losses-may-be-
               | subsid...
               | 
               | https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-investors-
               | include-pe...
        
             | hungryhobo wrote:
             | I love this analogy!
        
         | dagaci wrote:
         | Just like those EU CERN bureaucrats funding Tim Berners-Lee,
         | what were they thinking
        
           | nickpp wrote:
           | No, just like the EU search engine, remember that one?
        
         | bosswipe wrote:
         | China beurocrats have been quite successful with this strategy.
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | The US recently spent their way into a cutting edge private
         | space launch provider industry, and that seems like a roaring
         | success. What makes you think it doesn't work?
        
           | paulryanrogers wrote:
           | How much of that was really private? My guess is the NASA
           | launch facilities, former employees, and potential for future
           | contracts were a big part of the picture.
        
           | jryle70 wrote:
           | While that's probably correct that without NASA support
           | SpaceX may not survive 10 years ago, on the way to becoming
           | the innovator it is today. Financially speaking however NASA
           | has spent less to buy launch capability from SpaceX than it
           | would have to otherwise.
           | 
           | From the R&D perspective NASA doesn't really have any say in
           | how Starship/Superheavy are developed, which is the cutting
           | edge of space launch. Nor does it dictate the timeline or
           | milestones of the program. Not the same compared to the EU's
           | initiative.
           | 
           | In fact, SpaceX's success shows a different path: let the
           | private sector innovate, provide support in terms of know-
           | how, credibility and potential contracts.
        
           | cinquemb wrote:
           | Seem's like though we're still stuck in the Goddard age and
           | most of the resources go towards pursuing such techniques
           | (with a few private orgs that have the lions share of support
           | with public funds that even go towards such ends) of getting
           | into LEO as if there couldn't possibly be any other way worth
           | pursing... how long will we be stuck optimizing Goddard
           | paperclips above all else?
           | 
           | It's also quite funny considering that Goddard himself had to
           | do a lot of work alone, fight public opinion and face the
           | lack of support from the American government, military and
           | academia, all failing to understand the value of the rocket
           | to study the atmosphere and near space, and for military
           | applications, over I'm sure other public-private endeavors
           | that had the blessing at the time (perhaps all the atomic
           | research that provided more strategic benefits?)
        
           | wwwwwwwww wrote:
           | Not true.
           | 
           | SpaceX was almost completely privately invested and private
           | risk. Once they had shown that they were serious, NASA
           | awarded them contracts, because it was a great deal for NASA,
           | compared to what they would pay otherwise.
           | 
           | Its sad to see these kind of attempts to trash talk the
           | SpaceX achievements.
        
             | _ph_ wrote:
             | This isn't trash talking the SpaceX achievements but
             | stating the fact that government money played a huge role
             | in developing a space industry which was the base for
             | SpaceX becoming reality.
        
             | MichaelApproved wrote:
             | It's so strange to read a comment like this one. They have
             | the facts but completely miss how the facts connect with
             | each other.
             | 
             | Yes, Space X is a private company but they wouldn't exist
             | without the innovations that came out of NASA, a publicly
             | funded organization.
        
               | _ph_ wrote:
               | And of course the market. The supply contract for the ISS
               | gave SpaceX the necessary money to grow, without public
               | money no ISS, and as a consequence, no supply contract.
        
         | wwwwwwwww wrote:
         | It's always been normal in the EU. There is little innovation
         | here based on private risk taking, almost no venture capital,
         | and huge barrieres for banks to lend money to innovators.
        
           | djbebs wrote:
           | The fact that its practically impossible to legally invest
           | and create a business in the EU makes that almost inevitable
        
             | nirv wrote:
             | EU haters much, eh? It takes 30 mins to 3 hours to
             | establish[1] an LLC in EU (Estonia).
             | 
             | [1] https://investinestonia.com/business-in-
             | estonia/establishing...
        
             | ClumsyPilot wrote:
             | I have 2 legal entities in 2 EU countries, you are free to
             | invest any time.
        
         | jcfrei wrote:
         | Just like the NASA bureaucrats thought they could make a dent
         | in rocketry - how foolish of them.
         | 
         | Seriously though, some projects are just too expensive and
         | risky for a privately funded venture. That's why public-private
         | partnerships are created - it's always been like this and there
         | doesn't appear to be an alternative.
        
       | WanderPanda wrote:
       | I might have looked positively at this if the bureaucrats would
       | have actual skin in the game and would be judged by the outcome
       | in 5-10 years. But in the likely case that this will fail and
       | most of the money will be drained through lobbyism etc., nobody
       | will talk about it and they will come up with the next thing they
       | can throw money at to come across as being super innovative.
       | 
       | Disclaimer: I used to work at a company that was particularly
       | good in draining these kind of funds without delivering useful
       | outputs.
        
         | zackmorris wrote:
         | Government spending isn't the problem, it's who gets the money.
         | 
         | In the US I see it all going to established players. Which is
         | fine for stuff like finding a COVID-19 vaccine. But is a total
         | disaster for promoting innovation.
         | 
         | I have a computer engineering degree and have watched nothing
         | of interest happen in semiconductor manufacturing for over 20
         | years. Yes we have blue LEDs now. Yes we have fast video cards.
         | But if you look at single-threaded performance per clock cycle,
         | it's been stuck within the same order of magnitude since the
         | Pentium got 20 stage instruction pipelines and huge caches
         | (which in hindsight were big blows for SIMD and MIMD).
         | 
         | It would take a paltry amount of money, in the low millions of
         | dollars, to design real (general purpose) multicore processors
         | that deliver orders of magnitude better performance than what
         | we have today. But unfortunately lawmakers are for the most
         | part technologically illiterate, and technologists are unduly
         | skeptical of any type of programming outside the mainstream.
         | 
         | So my dream of a sub-$1000, 1000+ core CPU with a modest amount
         | of RAM per core (between 1 MB and 1 GB) that can be programmed
         | with existing tools like Erlang/Go/MATLAB/Julia and even Docker
         | is just never gonna happen. And without that, there is no
         | viable road to really experiment with stuff like AI, physics
         | simulations etc without renting time in the cloud. We have the
         | impression that progress is being made on these endeavors
         | today, but things look a little different to me, watching them
         | play out at a glacial pace, at mind boggling expense, over 3-4
         | decades. I mourn what might have been.
        
           | mafribe wrote:
           | I do NOT believe that you can deliver _" orders of magnitude
           | better performance"_ general purpose multicore processors for
           | low millions of dollars!
           | 
           | The salary for the verification engineers would already
           | probably exceed low millions of dollars after 3 years. Not to
           | mention licensing cost for EDA tools you need to tame
           | billions of transistors.
           | 
           | I will give you low millions of dollars if you have a viable
           | path to orders of magnitude better performance general
           | purpose processors.
        
           | alokrai wrote:
           | If the money required "to design real (general purpose)
           | multicore processors that deliver orders of magnitude better
           | performance than what we have today" is in low millions of
           | dollars and technical challenge isn't too daunting, why
           | haven't VCs invested in such ventures?
        
           | baryphonic wrote:
           | > It would take a paltry amount of money, in the low millions
           | of dollars, to design real (general purpose) multicore
           | processors that deliver orders of magnitude better
           | performance than what we have today. But unfortunately
           | lawmakers are for the most part technologically illiterate,
           | and technologists are unduly skeptical of any type of
           | programming outside the mainstream. > > So my dream of a
           | sub-$1000, 1000+ core CPU with a modest amount of RAM per
           | core (between 1 MB and 1 GB) that can be programmed with
           | existing tools like Erlang/Go/MATLAB/Julia and even Docker is
           | just never gonna happen. And without that, there is no viable
           | road to really experiment with stuff like AI, physics
           | simulations etc without renting time in the cloud. We have
           | the impression that progress is being made on these endeavors
           | today, but things look a little different to me, watching
           | them play out at a glacial pace, at mind boggling expense,
           | over 3-4 decades. I mourn what might have been.
           | 
           | I'm really curious what specifically you mean by this. I see
           | similar issues on the software side (my degree is in CS).
           | Software is incredibly bloated and horrible at
           | interoperability. Unix had pipes back in the early 70s, and
           | somehow with GUIs and then mobile "apps," we've regressed.
           | Identity-based security has failed time and again. And only
           | rarely has software design progressed meaningfully beyond
           | structured programming from the late 70s (not to mention the
           | languages). Moore's law has given software developers around
           | over 100M x improvement over the past 40 years, yet ordinary
           | people would scarcely notice.
           | 
           | TL;DR: I see a lot of the same flaws in software, dominated
           | by fads and popularity only of what is mainstream.
           | 
           | I'd really like to hear a dissident point of view from the
           | hardware side.
        
         | singhrac wrote:
         | Maybe you could use your experience to propose a system
         | (whether funding vehicle restrictions or proper incentives) for
         | that not to happen in this case? I think we'd all be excited by
         | that.
         | 
         | How can we avoid spending money on lobbyists? Maybe the
         | structure should be more VC-like?
        
           | rusk wrote:
           | No point arguing with ideology.
        
             | CryptoPunk wrote:
             | It is arguably quite ideological to insist that a large
             | monopolistic bureaucracy, or a conglomeration of them -
             | e.g. the EU - will be efficient in allocating vast amounts
             | of resources when basic game and microeconomic theory
             | suggests otherwise.
             | 
             | Still, an argument for state subsidies, despite some
             | inevitable degree of inefficiency, can be made.
        
               | rusk wrote:
               | Point was that despite repeated successes with this style
               | of investment the libhurdurians still insist it's a bad
               | idea, totally blind to the fact that lassaiz affaire is
               | just as prone to degeneration. It's ideology as much as
               | any other approach and when you find people _insisting_
               | on it without any concrete examples it's just plain
               | ideology you're dealing with and there's just no point
               | wasting your time.
        
           | lostmsu wrote:
           | An option to try is making a mixed merit+vote system instead
           | of just voting.
        
         | yostrovs wrote:
         | If it does succeed, it will be a perpetual, repeatedly brought
         | up, example of how the EU can get things done. The other
         | projects will remain forever forgotten.
        
       | AlexanderDhoore wrote:
       | ITT bashing on EU without understanding it
       | 
       | I believe the 17 signing nations are allowed to inject money into
       | their own economy. Even if the goals are a bit unrealistic.
       | 
       | EDIT The 2-3 years is when the funds are allocated. Not when the
       | results are expected.
        
         | ClumsyPilot wrote:
         | There is a missing bit of perapective: many EU startups rely on
         | grants for bootstrapping because investors here are a lot more
         | risk averse here. They commonly let folks get their startup to
         | an MVP and become investable.
         | 
         | The other factor is that they come in waves: there could be
         | many grants for your startup for a few years, then government
         | focus shifts and they dry up, then 5 years later they might
         | come again
         | 
         | Aquiring the grants and completing the required paperwork feels
         | a lot like doing schoolwork - it's tedious, but certainly
         | doable, I have won 2 grants a few years back for my startup,
         | its not like you have to be a big corp to stand a chance.
        
         | andi999 wrote:
         | Still, I think the 2-3 years is too short. I believe if you put
         | in a lot of money into something it needs a bit of time,
         | otherwise every participant will just do whatever they normally
         | do, just more of it.
        
           | Daho0n wrote:
           | The 2-3 years is when funding start, not when results are
           | expected.
        
         | rapsey wrote:
         | Because somehow this initiative is different from all the other
         | ones?
        
           | varjag wrote:
           | Which other ones you mean?
        
             | rapsey wrote:
             | Horizon2020 for instance
        
               | elric wrote:
               | I contributed to a couple of projects that received money
               | from FP7 (sort of the previous iteration of Horizon
               | 2020). In a certain sense, the whole thing seemed like a
               | huge waste of money. Software (and hardware) projects
               | were completed, and nothing was ever done with them. We
               | produced over 20k _pages_ worth of paperwork (which was
               | all mandatory if we wanted to get the money), which I 'm
               | guessing no one ever read.
               | 
               | Don't get me wrong, it was all developed with good
               | intentions, but those have been known to pave the road to
               | hell. From a personal point of view, I learnt a lot from
               | the experience. But there are probably more efficient
               | ways for software engineers to learn than by doing FP7
               | projects.
               | 
               | I was just a cog in the machine, perhaps someone further
               | down the pipe got some benefit out of what we were doing.
               | But given how the projects were managed, I doubt it.
        
               | petra wrote:
               | But isn't this typical to R&D ? that only 1 of N projects
               | gets used for commercial purposes ?
        
               | rualca wrote:
               | > But isn't this typical to R&D ? that only 1 of N
               | projects gets used for commercial purposes ?
               | 
               | The OP forgot to mention that one of the goals in the
               | Horizon2020 projects is to provide incentives to create
               | pan-european collaborations involving industrial,
               | academic, and institutional organizations.
               | 
               | In short, they are aimed to bridge the gap between
               | academia and industry, and also create synergies between
               | multiple organizations across Europe.
               | 
               | For example, some programs require applicants to partner
               | with research institutions and industrial companies of
               | significant and arbitrary size to be able to even submit
               | a proposal.
               | 
               | Thus, it's disingenuous to evaluate the success of these
               | programs in terms of commercial products being developed
               | out of these programs. The political goals of developing
               | collaborations between member-states is far more
               | important than delivering a gadget or a trinket.
               | 
               | Similarly, we have the Erasmus program that enable
               | higher-education students to spend a year in a school
               | from a member state somewhere in Europe. It's
               | disingenuous to assume the goal of the Erasmus program is
               | solely academic.
        
               | Radim wrote:
               | As someone who came from academia, now runs a commercial
               | company, and having participated in several large
               | consortia projects (including Horizon 2020), I find your
               | perspective... charming.
               | 
               | I hope you never get to experience how the sausage is
               | made. And where you taxes really go.
        
               | lemonspat wrote:
               | I read the previous comment as: there wasn't anyone at
               | the end trying to help make it actually commercialized
        
               | touisteur wrote:
               | But not every R&D project can or should lead to a
               | commercial product right away. I work in a big corp and
               | sometimes the tech you invested in, even if the PoC was
               | great and all successful, doesn't fit in any final
               | product because of thousands of other constraints.
               | 
               | But I also see lots of small 'mindshare' changes thanks
               | to those 'it can be done' projects. The important steps
               | seem to be to first unlock the first TRLs, then find PoCs
               | on real products to inspire (and increase TRLs) tech
               | directors and product managers that they need to invest
               | the next millions into an big and still uncertain shift,
               | and to underinvest in other important parts of their
               | products. In the case of tech push you often end up with
               | a new shiny tech that can't be used right away. So,
               | mostly, it's about climbing the maturity ladder, and be
               | ready for the _very small_ openings in the product
               | development cycle to shoe your new tech in.
               | 
               | In the case of customer pull or market pull, the lead
               | time of such projects makes it too late to ask for
               | external help, and no research grant wants to participate
               | in 'product development' (not their job). So the tech is
               | usually badly implemented and leaves a sour taste.
               | 
               | What I see as positive: if you have a great tech idea and
               | available resources, and great academic/labs contacts,
               | you _can_ get the money, with little resistance (but yes,
               | lots of admin work) with either European or national
               | /regional grants.
               | 
               | IIRC the 2014 version of SPARK was designed and developed
               | through a French civilian R&D funding project :
               | http://www.open-do.org/projects/hi-lite/ The project was
               | clearly a success there (although I don't know about ROI
               | or profitability for AdaCore on this tech). Working with
               | innovative SMBs is a great way to get funding in France
               | and most of the projects that I've seen tend to conclude
               | in new products... for the SMB. But the scale is low
               | there (<4MEUR), so it also helps to accept failure
               | ('only' 4m 'wasted'...).
        
               | BlueTemplar wrote:
               | 'TRL' ?
        
               | namero999 wrote:
               | This maps onto my experience with an Horizon2020 project.
               | I don't want to say that it is wasted money, rather just
               | point out that it feels like a spray&pray approach. We
               | travelled a lot, produced a lot of excel and word
               | documents in a very inefficient way, the outcome, despite
               | being the project "successful", is completely useless and
               | will never see the light as a commercial product, not
               | even as a useful blueprint for other organizations. All
               | in all it was a depressing experience, knowing that we
               | were going on thanks to taxpayer money. R&D is good and I
               | don't want to bash on these initiatives... I guess I just
               | ended up in a project that didn't go anywhere.
        
               | rualca wrote:
               | > I contributed to a couple of projects that received
               | money from FP7 (sort of the previous iteration of Horizon
               | 2020). In a certain sense, the whole thing seemed like a
               | huge waste of money.
               | 
               | I guess your mileage does indeed vary. I contributed to a
               | subproject of a major FP7 research program, which counted
               | with the collaboration of a major industrial
               | manufacturing company, a state research institute, and a
               | couple of university research groups. In the end, besides
               | a hand full of research papers, the industrial company
               | developed a commercial product which is being rolled out
               | as we speak. The state research institute didn't gained
               | much out of the deal but we did developed institutional
               | relationships that have been fruitful since then.
               | 
               | What you take from a research program is proportional to
               | the legwork you put in. I'm sure some projects aren't
               | immediately fruitful but it's short-sighted to claim that
               | the money is wasted, specially if you take into account
               | that this expenditure is what makes this sort of
               | industrial effort possible.
        
               | rapsey wrote:
               | Exactly. The rules and bureaucratic burden of getting
               | involved defeats the entire point. Even if you go in with
               | the most noble of intentions.
        
               | newdude116 wrote:
               | Great. Sounds very different from the very corrupt SBIR
               | grants.
        
               | snvzz wrote:
               | That does describe my own experience with 2x FP7 projects
               | well.
        
               | ginko wrote:
               | That's a programme providing research grants. Why do you
               | think it's a failure?
        
               | sgift wrote:
               | Can you show where Horizon2020 squandered money? Or gave
               | any other reason to bash the EU?
        
               | rapsey wrote:
               | I know of two companies getting money. The first ones
               | entire business model is EU funds. They "make" only the
               | necessary burocratic documentation. They have zero
               | intentions of producing anything. The other is large and
               | dirty af with bribes.
               | 
               | If you try to compete with them for EU grants, you are
               | going to get an investigation into your business for
               | misspending EU funds. Because they know the right people.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | That's one reason why the European Public Prossecutor's
               | Office was created.
        
               | andi999 wrote:
               | I thought it is not possible to have 100% funding through
               | EU funds, there needs to be a sustainable business; but
               | maybe ppl do not check this.
        
               | Shorel wrote:
               | At the very least mention the countries these companies
               | are based on.
        
               | welterde wrote:
               | Would be good to name them publicly and/or perhaps have
               | some investigative journalists of your choice poke them a
               | bit.
               | 
               | Doing nothing and just giving up doesn't make corruption
               | go away.
        
               | scotty79 wrote:
               | Better defined goal, more money?
        
               | varjag wrote:
               | This looks a lot like what NSF does in the USA, on a
               | similar budget.
        
               | jcelerier wrote:
               | What ? there's a shitton of good research done on H2020
               | funds
        
           | rusk wrote:
           | You mean like CERN? Yeah what a waste of everybody's time
           | that was ...
        
             | Eridrus wrote:
             | There are a fair amount of people who think the LHC was not
             | a wise use of resources since it did not give any clues to
             | a new theory beyond the existing "Standard Model"
             | https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-no-new-particles-
             | means-f...
             | 
             | It's obviously easy to say this in hindsight and it wasn't
             | necessarily obvious when this started, but it definitely
             | cost more than it had to because it was an EU project that
             | had to hand out work to all the funding countries.
             | 
             | I am curious what investments have worked out for the EU,
             | but if the LHC is the pinnacle, it doesn't inspire much
             | hope.
        
               | rusk wrote:
               | You are literally using a tangible benefit right now.
        
               | [deleted]
        
       | kindly_fo wrote:
       | I don't get why you are so upset us has more it companies than
       | eu. Us and eu are friends and their good stuff you can use
       | without wasting 140 billions. The r&d are very costly and by not
       | doing it all this centuries eu saved gazillion of money.
        
       | orbifold wrote:
       | Always great to see how the EU squanders money on projects like
       | that.
        
         | michalklujszo wrote:
         | Wasn't a project like that that was a starting point for
         | Airbus?
        
         | newdude116 wrote:
         | As if the corrupt SBIR Grants are any better. Do you homework
         | dude!
        
       | _ph_ wrote:
       | Good news. Yes, as with all government money, there is some pork
       | barreling involved, but there is a long history of such
       | government initiatives laying the starting seed for high tech
       | industry development. It means money is invested in Europe tied
       | to a certain purpose. Giving talented engineers a job perspective
       | and companies a field in which they can invest into.
        
         | m4rtink wrote:
         | Exactly, I suppose the Taiwan government also helped a lot to
         | TSMC to get started & get where it is now.
        
         | rapsey wrote:
         | Yeah but that was then and this is now. Exploiting these EU
         | programmes is a business for many. They produce paperwork and
         | they get EU funds.
        
         | thu2111 wrote:
         | _there is a long history of such government initiatives laying
         | the starting seed for high tech industry development_
         | 
         | However, not in the EU. The EU has been engaging in massive
         | subsidisation for decades and has little to show for it. In
         | some places it seems to have led to a hollowed out society in
         | which companies that are supposedly startups spend all their
         | time chasing grant money instead of building real products.
         | 
         | VC investment is hard work. The EU isn't a well run VC firm
         | even though it deploys more capital than such firms do, and it
         | shows: they don't really care what the money gets spent on as
         | long as there's a paper trail they can use to do ass-covering
         | if it turns out the money was lost to fraud. So it creates this
         | USSR-like culture of zombie firms that can't really survive
         | independent of state funding.
        
       | baybal2 wrote:
       | Just by looking at the digit, it's 6 times bigger than the US
       | programme on money spent per year.
       | 
       | As unsubstantiated news suggest, the most of American program
       | will be spent on attracting few, amazingly expensive, one off
       | projects.
        
       | golfer wrote:
       | Serious question: Why is the EU so far behind in tech company
       | influence/leadership compared to the US and Asia? Europe has
       | successful tech enterprises, but surely is capable of so much
       | more on a global scale.
        
         | flembat wrote:
         | Partly we are all hopelessly impressed by American
         | salesmanship. For example our businesses ignored things like
         | the Acorn Archimedes and bought PCs from IBM instead.
        
           | systemvoltage wrote:
           | First step would be to build better products and services.
        
         | thu2111 wrote:
         | That's a deep question that is asked nowhere near enough. And
         | when it is asked, my experience has been it's mostly been
         | Americans doing the asking.
         | 
         | Here's a story. I was once visiting Silicon Valley for work and
         | getting dinner with a friend who lives there. I'm a Brit who
         | lives in central Europe. On the way over I'd bought a copy of
         | Der Spiegel, which likes to write tabloid-esque articles about
         | the Power Of Tech Firms. The front cover this particular week
         | was one such article and I had found it kind of funny, so I was
         | showing it to my friend and we were discussing it.
         | 
         | Next to us in the restaurant was another table with an elderly
         | gentlemen dining alone. Suddenly he leaned over and joined our
         | conversation. It turned out he was some sort of economics
         | academic and one of his 'research interests' was this question
         | of why the EU doesn't generate tech firms. He had a lot of
         | insight and I've never forgotten that discussion: it has
         | influenced my thoughts about how to set up my own software
         | firm.
         | 
         | One of the points he made is that outside the USA there's no
         | real culture of granting early employees equity, whereas in the
         | US tech industry that's standard. ARM is apparently one of the
         | few exceptions, in which the co-founders did in fact hand out
         | equity early on. The incentivising effect this produces is
         | profound. I've felt it myself - when I joined a startup, having
         | an ownership stake as well as a salary made the difference
         | between doing the work, and genuinely _caring_ about the
         | company, being willing to get into arguments and fight for what
         | was important, etc. So a culture gap with respect to ownership
         | is perhaps one reason.
         | 
         | The man made other points that were more commonly observed,
         | like the different approaches to regulation. A few days ago
         | people were surprised to discover that the UK/EU Brexit treaty
         | mandates SHA-1 for some obscure data interchange format. This
         | is typical for the EU. In the US people at least pretend to
         | care about the innovation-harming impact of regulation, even on
         | the left. There's zero culture of that in the EU. The EU views
         | more regulation as inherently good, and anything that isn't
         | caked in hundreds of pages of regulations as being merely on
         | the TODO list. It also brooks no dissent: one of the EU's "red
         | lines" in the negotiations was that they didn't want the UK to
         | undercut their "standards", defined as regulation. Any country
         | that attempts to deregulate gets taken to court by the EU
         | Commission itself, _in its own courts_ , which almost always
         | rule in favour of the Commission regardless of what the law
         | actually says. This creates a one-way ratchet of ever more
         | convoluted and obsolete rules, which in turn imposes a thicket
         | of complexity costs on companies that have other things to
         | focus on. Many of these rules are justified on the grounds of
         | making trade easier but often have the opposite effect.
         | 
         | Finally there are the very real cultural aspects. The US/Valley
         | culture practically celebrates failure. This isn't necessarily
         | _good_ - failure is still failure, but family and friends at
         | least seem to be pretty supportive of entrepreneurs in general
         | and  "failure" is very flexibly defined. For instance creating
         | a company that never makes money isn't a problem in the US
         | thanks to a mix of this culture and bottomless VC money.
         | Whereas that would be perceived as failure by family and
         | friends in Europe.
        
           | FooBarWidget wrote:
           | I run a tech company in the Netherlands. I can corroborate
           | most of this.
           | 
           | Giving employees equity in the Netherlands is nearly
           | impossible without getting taxed to death. The position of
           | the tax authority is that the sole reason you get equity, is
           | because of your relationship as employee, and therefore the
           | "gift of equity" is actually a form of salary, and therefore
           | salary tax must be paid based on the value of the equity. In
           | the Netherlands, this tax is around 50%.
           | 
           | Worse: depending on the exact legal implementation of the
           | equity, you may end up having to pay the tax, based on its
           | value on paper, _before_ actually selling the equity, whose
           | actual market price may be far lower. One could end up losing
           | money just by having equity.
           | 
           | In the Netherlands, having a bankruptcy on your name makes
           | you an ecomonic pariah. The process of going through a
           | bankruptcy is not pleasant and comes with many
           | responsibilities. Starting another company will be difficult.
           | You will not be able to get a loan anymore. Oh, and your
           | phone bill counts as a loan.
           | 
           | There is also a very weak culture of venture capital
           | investment. There are very few such investors, and where they
           | exist, the amounts they offer is tiny (like 10x lower)
           | compared to US VCs, even though they ask the same amount of
           | equity.
           | 
           | I am also not very impressed with the amount of
           | advice/expertise VCs can offer over here.
           | 
           | The Dutch government likes to talk about how much they
           | stimulate the tech and startup scenes. But when capital is
           | concerned, their default answer is that you're supposed to
           | get a loan. Lenders, unlike venture capitalists, are risk-
           | averse (which they have to by law), meaning that they MUST
           | get their loan paid back no matter what, which means that
           | your business plan MUST be profitable, guaranteed, and that
           | you must provide some sort of personal collateral, such as
           | your savings or your house.
           | 
           | The sort of companies the government is thinking of, is for
           | example a factory, where you need capital up front in order
           | to buy machinery. The demand is known, so you know what
           | profit you will roughly make. But this sort of thinking
           | doesn't work for areas with high risk or a high degree of
           | unknown.
           | 
           | For example let's say that you want to make a Twitter. You
           | need money to pay for developers' salaries. But what will
           | your profit be in year 3? It could be 1 million, or 0
           | (because nobody wants it). When banks hear this, they want a
           | collateral equal to the loan amount. Why would I even get a
           | loan then?
           | 
           | The best thing I can say about the Netherlands is the WBSO
           | subsidy. When you do tech research and development on an area
           | with risk (where risk is defined as being risky _to you_ ,
           | e.g. because you have no experience with a particular topic
           | or technology), then the government provides a subsidy for
           | the amount of man-hours spent on this R&D. R&D includes
           | software development too. This subsidy is implemented as a
           | salary tax break.
           | 
           | Plus, when it turns out that your WBSO-subsidized product
           | actually generates profit, then you get a corporate income
           | tax break on the profits generated by that product. This is
           | called the Innovatiebox.
           | 
           | WBSO and Innovatiebox are really nice once you have initial
           | capital and have taken off. They won't help you when you
           | start with near EUR0.
        
             | Daho0n wrote:
             | >The position of the tax authority is that the sole reason
             | you get equity, is because of your relationship as
             | employee, and therefore the "gift of equity" is actually a
             | form of salary
             | 
             | But they are correct in saying this. You wouldn't give
             | equity to random people would you? And is it not worth
             | money? You might not agree with the tax rate but the two
             | reasons you mentioned are irrefutably true.
        
             | joelbluminator wrote:
             | I"ll echo VC scarcity in NL as a main problem. Coming from
             | Israel I really notice in NL bootstrapped Dutch companies
             | of high quality that are quite happy serving the local
             | market and maybe Belgium and that's about it. No expansion
             | planned, or if one is planned it could take years and
             | years. I read once its due to lack of ambition by Dutch
             | entrepreneurs, but that isn't it. Without VC money its
             | simply realistic to stay local; how are you gonna compete
             | with U.S companies without money? Even the big names in NL
             | like WeTransfer, Mollie, Bux, Bunq etc would have raised
             | way more in Israel or the US. It's quite enough to raise a
             | sizable 1st round in Israel, use connections + acquire
             | traffic and customers to show growth, and then raise
             | enormous subsequent rounds because you showed growth. I'm
             | sure many Dutch entreprenuers could have done the same
             | thing but it isn't possible for them without funding. So
             | they "dream" small. There are probably a lot of missed
             | chances in NL. On the other hand if the tech VC market
             | implodes again Dutch companies won't be hurt as bad.
        
           | avianlyric wrote:
           | > It also brooks no dissent: one of the EU's "red lines" in
           | the negotiations was that they didn't want the UK to undercut
           | their "standards", defined as regulation. Any country that
           | attempts to deregulate gets taken to court by the EU
           | Commission itself, in its own courts, which almost always
           | rule in favour of the Commission regardless of what the law
           | actually says.
           | 
           | This is standard practice is almost any trading agreement. No
           | trading entity wants to enter a tariff free agreement with
           | another entity which operates lower standards, and thus makes
           | it easy for that partner to undercut their local market.
           | 
           | It's the entire reason why the US and EU hold tariffs against
           | each other. They don't want the subsidies or differences in
           | standards to allow one to undercut the other.
           | 
           | The US has similar terms in all their trading agreements, its
           | just that historically the US has sought to export its
           | copyright, tax and drug laws. Hence why most of the western
           | world has drug laws and copyright laws that are almost a copy
           | paste of US drug and copyright laws. Indeed it's why weed is
           | still technically illegal in Amsterdam. It's also how the US
           | gets foreign banks to enforce FATCA.
           | 
           | Finally if you want to see some really repugnant trade
           | agreement terms, look up Investor-state Dispute Settlement
           | agreements that the US likes to put in their trade deals [1]
           | 
           | [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investor-
           | state_dispute_settl...
        
           | Krasnol wrote:
           | > For instance creating a company that never makes money
           | isn't a problem in the US thanks to a mix of this culture and
           | bottomless VC money. Whereas that would be perceived as
           | failure by family and friends in Europe.
           | 
           | I guess that's related to the US dept culture too. Not having
           | money but borrowing it for all kinds of things and with that
           | stacking dept upon dept is quite normal in the US while over
           | here at the continent you usually want to pay it back asap.
           | 
           | So not having money or working for a company which doesn't
           | generate any must feel much better in the US.
           | 
           | I would be terrified. I also wouldn't work for some startup
           | which won't pay be but instead preach something about family
           | values for example. Earning money and owning stuff that I buy
           | feels great. Wouldn't want to miss it.
        
           | ourlordcaffeine wrote:
           | Well I can certainly say one thing, thanks to EU regulation I
           | don't have to eat chlorinated chicken, the air is clean and I
           | have reasonable working hours and holiday protected by law.
           | You seem to suggest that regulation is always bad, I think a
           | lot of people would disagree.
        
             | blibble wrote:
             | > Well I can certainly say one thing, thanks to EU
             | regulation I don't have to eat chlorinated chicken, the air
             | is clean
             | 
             | well, if you completely ignore that the EU pushed diesel
             | over petrol, to protect its domestic industries
             | 
             | exactly the same as the chicken thing
             | 
             | neither are to protect your health, that's just a secondary
             | effect that the EU uses for PR
        
               | Daho0n wrote:
               | Comparing chlorinated chicken to diesel is just insane.
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | you're possibly right
               | 
               | diesel particulate emissions as a direct result of the EU
               | legislation protecting EU industry cause about tens of
               | thousands of deaths a year, mostly in Europe
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/15/diese
               | l-e...
               | 
               | meanwhile chlorinated chicken has killed no-one
        
           | petre wrote:
           | > The EU views more regulation as inherently good, and
           | anything that isn't caked in hundreds of pages of regulations
           | as being merely on the TODO list
           | 
           | One of the best examples of this are the digital tachograph
           | design documents, which are hundreds of pages of legal
           | gibberish mixed with a convoluted tech spec. 100% design by
           | comitee. No wonder the top digital tachograph supplier is VDO
           | and one if the lesser players, Stoneridge, has a much better
           | designed and executed product.
           | 
           | In contrast with this, the US ELD is an 125 page document
           | standardising functionality and the data output of the
           | device.
        
           | oblio wrote:
           | Well, the current European culture is deeply shaped by a
           | immense counter reaction to those times when daring and
           | enterprising men blew up the world twice.
           | 
           | That's why consensus building and failure avoidance are
           | common in Europe. People want good enough without moonshots.
        
           | DrBazza wrote:
           | The USA is also one country, one culture, one language, 300
           | million people as an initial market and a continent. Each of
           | these lower the barrier to entry. The last point point about
           | being a continent is that I can ship across the USA for far
           | less than I can ship from one side of the EU to the other.
           | The USA has economies of scale that Europe still does not
           | have.
        
         | shaicoleman wrote:
         | There's a good analysis video about it by TechAltar:
         | 
         | How Europe lost its tech companies (2017)
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSU5MFPn6Zk
        
       | leke wrote:
       | Hmmm... Just after I watched this
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hF3sp-q3Zmk and thought the
       | future was RISC-V
        
         | snvzz wrote:
         | I did watch https://youtu.be/_2KgrFm2Fz4 and came to the same
         | conclusion.
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | Even ignoring specific criticism of RISC-V - the ISA means fuck
         | all if you can't build the actual uarch that implements it. We
         | are probably going to see x86 struggle because of issue-width
         | (although Jim Keller seriously hinted something enormous when
         | he was still at Intel), but the ISA itself (to 1*) isn't much
         | of a CPU
        
       | albertop wrote:
       | This is NOT how innovation works. https://www.amazon.com/How-
       | Innovation-Works-Flourishes-Freed...
        
         | arnaudsm wrote:
         | Historically, Silicon Valley was created from government
         | contracts and subsidies.
         | 
         | Gov. intervention can work if done correctly.
        
       | bitL wrote:
       | Hint: it's going to end up with the same results as European AI -
       | a bunch of inept large companies getting money without any
       | results. Top-down approach from basic MBAs down to engineers
       | never worked.
        
       | christophilus wrote:
       | Well, I hope all of the naysayers are wrong. I'm looking forward
       | to what more competition will bring to this space.
        
       | Nokinside wrote:
       | EU has the tech. ASML is #2 company in EURO STOXX 50 index with
       | 5.69% weight.
       | 
       | ASML is the world's largest photolithography systems manufacturer
       | and the only one producing extreme ultraviolet lithography
       | machines. These EUV scanners are expensive as hell. Last years
       | model costs $120 million per piece and you need 10-15 of them for
       | TSMC gigafactory.
       | 
       | TWINSCAN NXE:3400C (7 and 5 nm nodes, >170 wafers per hour) is
       | probably the most expensive machine in the world.
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | I've heard this often repeated claim about ASML owning the core
         | tech behind TSMC's 5nm process. However if it was just a
         | question of buying N 200 million dollar machines to launch a
         | 5nm foundry wouldn't we see dozens of 5nm competitors? Why
         | hasn't intel , apple, Samsung, or AMD shelled out for 10?
         | 
         | Given the size of this commitment it seems clear that there is
         | a lot more to 5nm than the lithography machine.
        
           | dmix wrote:
           | It also adds the question what ASML has to gain from handing
           | over their technical advantage to some local gov effort.
           | 
           | I mean they can get paid but there's a ton of other companies
           | not starting from scratch they can also make billions off of
           | so I don't see why some geographic thing is some huge
           | advantage for EU.
           | 
           | They already operate in a highly lucrative global market with
           | companies who don't need to figure anything out.
           | 
           | If anything this should be expansion capital or efforts to
           | build more factories locally. Not trying to do it themselves.
           | 
           | But hey what do I know. I don't have multiple countries with
           | lagging tech interests in mind with lots of money to burn.
        
         | iagovar wrote:
         | The EU has the tech, but that's not enough. I won't say the
         | whole budget will be wasted away, but I hold no hope of
         | something useful coming out of it.
         | 
         | The EU has ASML, NXP, Infineon, maybe STM (not sure) and a ton
         | of little shops, but all of them are far away from the major
         | players. And they are moderately confortable in their niches.
         | This is a very high risk endeavour, even with EU money.
         | 
         | And as far as I know, none of them manufacture for other end-
         | user players, so even if there was a new fabless company with a
         | cool project, it's likely that wouldn't be made in the EU bu by
         | Samsumg or TSMC.
        
           | stevespang wrote:
           | Agreed. EU has no track record of producing leading edge nm
           | chips, any EU designs will more likely be fabbed at TSMC or
           | maybe Samsung.
        
           | rualca wrote:
           | > The EU has ASML, NXP, Infineon, maybe STM (not sure) and a
           | ton of little shops, but all of them are far away from the
           | major players.
           | 
           | They don't need to become major players for this program to
           | be a major success. Both India's and China's push for a
           | native self-sufficient industrial capabilities have been a
           | huge success in spite of not delivering a cutting edge
           | processor.
           | 
           | Moreover, AMD showed that right now the key factor to develop
           | a product line that dominates all competitors in all
           | categories, from performance to power efficiency and also
           | price, is access to a capable manufacturing hub.
        
             | DSingularity wrote:
             | What? You are basically discount AMD design. The
             | manufacturing and process tech are critical but not enough
             | alone. You need good design.
        
               | samfisher83 wrote:
               | When you can use the twice the number of transistors and
               | they use 1/3 less power that is a pretty big advantage to
               | work with.
               | 
               | You might have the best car design in world, but if all
               | could use was wood vs someone else who had a crappy
               | design, but had aluminum the crappy designed car might
               | work better.
               | 
               | Not saying this is the case with AMD vs Intel, but right
               | now Intel's manufacturing is hurting them.
        
             | rmrfstar wrote:
             | "Sovereignty" is an important concept that dropped out of
             | American discourse in the 1990s. No self-respecting country
             | relies on foreign cryptography to protect its diplomatic
             | communications.
             | 
             | Similarly, no self-respecting country in 2030 will rely
             | entirely on foreign integrated circuits. FPGAs will play an
             | important role for small countries, but large groups like
             | EU can afford to go big.
        
               | lumost wrote:
               | Sovereignty matters when you can't trust there won't be
               | supply disruptions due to war, piracy, or trade
               | intervention.
               | 
               | Post ww2 the US had no reason to be concerned with any of
               | the above in the western world, following the collapse of
               | the USSR this mentality was extended globally with the
               | belief that "we'd reached the end of history".
               | 
               | As of 2020 I don't think any major power considers the
               | risk of trade interventions or war to be negligible. The
               | us navy may no longer be capable of ensuring freedom of
               | the seas unilaterally.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | rmrfstar wrote:
               | An alternative explanation is that US policy makers like
               | Larry Summers and Bob Rubin are just incompetent,
               | delusional, and greedy.
        
             | bogomipz wrote:
             | >"Both India's and China's push for a native self-
             | sufficient industrial capabilities have been a huge success
             | in spite of not delivering a cutting edge processor."
             | 
             | Could you elaborate on these huge successes in these two
             | countries? I do remember hearing that India had produced a
             | SPARC-based chip.
        
           | misja111 wrote:
           | > .. I won't say the whole budget will be wasted away, but I
           | hold no hope of something useful coming out of it.
           | 
           | The ECB has been buying trillions of euro's worth of dubious
           | government bonds and bank debts for the last couple of years.
           | Also every year the EU pays hundreds of billions worth of
           | subsidies to European farmers so that they are able to sell
           | their goods below global market prices. I would say that this
           | 145 billion is as good an investment if not better than what
           | EU money has been spent on so far.
        
             | vladimirralev wrote:
             | Central banks and governments pretty much already committed
             | to drive a planned economy. EU subsidises farmers (among
             | others) to sell goods at cheap prices, which causes
             | consumer prices to drop and in the end the ECB says
             | inflation is too low, so let's print money to buy more gov
             | bonds. Governments then use the money to subsidise
             | something else distorting the markets and it loops back to
             | disinflation and the central bank printing even more money.
             | 
             | It's a joke. Might as well just admit, semiconductors or
             | not, the future of the economy is with the politically
             | preselected winners who get the subsidies and the loans.
             | Risk premiums, collateral, macroprudential regulation,
             | insurance and so on is for the peasants.
        
         | skrebbel wrote:
         | ASML is impressive for sure, but having the litho doesn't mean
         | you can make good chips.
         | 
         | As a mediocre analogy, you don't expect to be able to write
         | good novels because you got your hands on a printer.
         | 
         | I think much of the relevant general-purpose chip design
         | knowledge we had (ARM) left the EU this morning. I don't yet
         | see any other chip company (eg NXP etc) suddenly be the next
         | Intel or AMD yet (let alone the next Apple).
        
           | CalChris wrote:
           | The company has offices and design centres in Copenhagen in
           | Denmark; Oulu in Finland; Sophia Antipolis in France;
           | Grasbrunn in Germany; Budapest in Hungary; Galway in Ireland;
           | Trondheim in Norway; Katowice in Poland; Sentjernej in
           | Slovenia; Lund in Sweden.
        
           | nirv wrote:
           | RISC-V Foundation just moved[1] from the USA to Switzerland
           | in late 2019 due to geopolitical concerns.
           | 
           | Also, the European Union is heavily betting on the RISC-V for
           | its future hyperscale HPC systems[2][3][4].
           | 
           | I would believe that next-gen European CPU budget declaration
           | is part of this dynamic. And I really hope it will work out.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-
           | semiconductors-...
           | 
           | [2] https://www.european-processor-initiative.eu/project/epi/
           | 
           | [3] https://www.mdpi.com/2297-8747/25/3/46/pdf (PDF)
           | 
           | [4] https://www.nextplatform.com/2019/06/10/europes-
           | homegrown-hp...
        
             | GregarianChild wrote:
             | The RISC-V foundation moved to Switzerland primarily to
             | help the big Chinese processor companies to work on RISC-V.
             | 
             | Regarding the _EU heavily betting on RISC-V_ , what gives
             | you confidence that this will work? The history of EU
             | funded projects to catch up with the US in AI, in cloud
             | computing (like GAIA-X), in quantum computing, in the space
             | race? HPC is not a mass-market, how should this niche be
             | economically viable to amortise the huge cost of processor
             | development? HPC in the US (and other countries) is often
             | connected to military spending (although this is not always
             | openly expressed). Processor development is extremely
             | expensive, to the extent that Intel is now struggling to
             | finance catching up with TSMC's fab process. Where is the
             | EU's micro-architecture design capacity? ARM is about to be
             | swallowed by Nvidia, and a lot of Arm's micro-architecture
             | development is done in the US already. Now compare the
             | micro-architecture design capacity with that in China (the
             | world's biggest processor market).                  I
             | really hope it will work out.
             | 
             | I do too.
             | 
             | Given 40 years of failure to catch up with the US, and now
             | China, I am sceptical! I expect this to end up like
             | previous EU attempts at catching up: the monies available
             | will be _much_ smaller than originally announced (by at
             | least an order of magnitude), spent over much longer a
             | time-frame, but more importantly, mostly flow to existing
             | EU-based companies that are good ad lobbying, e.g. Siemens,
             | and French conglomerates.
             | 
             | Another prediction: China will soon dominate RISC-V, since
             | they are now forced, by US sanctions, to move away from
             | Arm. I cannot see big Chinese processor companies moving to
             | local ISAs such as Loongson. Alibaba announced a RISC-V
             | processor at ICSA this year [2]. The big US players (Intel,
             | AMD, Nvidia) have much less of a need to move to RISC-V.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson
             | 
             | [2] https://conferences.computer.org/isca/pdfs/ISCA2020-4Ql
             | DegUf...
        
               | nirv wrote:
               | > _The RISC-V foundation moved to Switzerland primarily
               | to help the big Chinese processor companies to work on
               | RISC-V._
               | 
               | Of course. It also removes unnecessary anxiety for the EU
               | that the next ruling power in the US (or elsewhere) may
               | eventually attempt to impose sanctions on the export of
               | the IP. Switzerland, as part of Schengen and Union's
               | single market, fits nearly perfectly into the narrative
               | of European consolidation.
               | 
               | > _what gives you confidence that this will work?_ [...]
               | _Where is the EU 's micro-architecture design capacity?_
               | 
               | I can't see the future, hence I have no confidence. But I
               | express cautious optimism for the following reason: the
               | issue of EU's dependence on some crucial technologies
               | from the third parties is obvious, but there's no direct
               | and quick solution to solve it. The EU can't just turn
               | into venture capital Mecca overnight, the same holds for
               | becoming a low tax heaven. However, the
               | problems/challenges are there, and they must be addressed
               | in the best way under the given circumstances.
               | 
               | The EU has a well-established practice of funding R&D in
               | large areas with non-specific goals or metrics, however
               | this approach is not unique to the EU, it's crucial to
               | the bloc to nourish the interbloc integration and
               | establish logistics between the disparate parts of the
               | market and institutions. It doesn't always lead to
               | unexpected discoveries or breakthrough ventures, but in
               | general it manages the integration task quite well.
               | Which, in turn, contributes to the development of a rich
               | ecosystem. As a tech entrepreneur in the EU, I'm not
               | exactly happy with current affairs, but satisfied with
               | the recognition of my industry's difficulties and
               | proposed attempts to solve them. A failed venture with
               | some new sprouts at worst case, a tangible breakthrough
               | at best.
               | 
               | So far, the EU holds leading position in the lithography
               | systems (ASML). The EU is competitive in radio (Ericsson,
               | Nokia) and embedded (NXP, Infineon, STM) semi
               | manufacturing. There're many blank spaces on the European
               | vertical technology stack, but it's far from a blank
               | slate. This whole commitment is about EU pushing
               | homegrown processor sovereignty across the entire stack.
               | AFAIU, the project puts the focus on HPC as the only
               | specific target platform that needs to be manufactured,
               | but the developments around this project should lay the
               | ecosystem for the boost of the industry as a whole.
               | 
               | Companies such as Apple[1], Microsoft[2], Amazon[3],
               | Google[3], and especially fresh start-ups like Nuvia[4]
               | and Ampere[5] -- are working on new ARM-based CPU
               | designs, while SiFive[6] and some others on RISC-V. Also,
               | I'd speculate that AMD and Intel will have to consider
               | switching from the X86 in the foreseeable future. _Now is
               | the best possible time for venture into the semiconductor
               | industry_ in the past few decades. I don 't underestimate
               | the complexity of the task. But perhaps a fraction of
               | EUR145bn would be enough to plant a seed of a viable EU-
               | based CPU semi enterprise; or is it definitely a doomed
               | undertaking, eh? Maybe that French SiPearl[7] or some
               | other company will take chances, we shall see.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple
               | _Silico...
               | 
               | [2] https://aws.amazon.com/ec2/graviton/
               | 
               | [3] https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/04/google-wants-
               | to-dump...
               | 
               | [4] https://nuviainc.com/
               | 
               | [5] https://www.anandtech.com/show/15575/amperes-
               | altra-80-core-n...
               | 
               | [6] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sifive-tech-
               | idUSKCN2571UL
               | 
               | [7] https://sipearl.com
        
             | alexhutcheson wrote:
             | The foundation just coordinates the standards process and
             | sets rules for using the trademark. It has a tiny budget
             | and few staff. All substantive R&D is done by its members,
             | which are companies of various size with headquarters in
             | various countries: https://riscv.org/members/
             | 
             | Changing where the foundation is incorporated doesn't
             | change where this R&D happens.
             | 
             | Also Switzerland isn't in the EU.
        
           | m4rtink wrote:
           | On the other hand, without the printing press your reach as a
           | novel autor was severely limited - to the point there were no
           | novel authors basically.
        
             | skrebbel wrote:
             | Nice! Great point and it might just apply here as well!
        
           | ginko wrote:
           | >I think much of the relevant chip design knowledge we had
           | (ARM) left the EU this morning.
           | 
           | The larger ARM Cortex cores are still designed to a large
           | degree in Southern France.
        
             | iagovar wrote:
             | Yeah but that's ARM IP though. There's a window of
             | opportunity with RISC V, but something tells me that the
             | fact it's open source rubs against some people.
        
               | ginko wrote:
               | >Yeah but that's ARM IP though.
               | 
               | How does this matter? Do you think ARM won't license
               | their IP to European chip makers?
        
               | thu2111 wrote:
               | ARM will be owned by NVIDIA soon anyway so it's all
               | swings and roundabouts.
        
               | rusk wrote:
               | Are ARM still Japanese? I think there's a pretty solid
               | trade agreement between the EU and Japan ...
        
               | alexhutcheson wrote:
               | https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-
               | for...
        
               | rusk wrote:
               | Has the UK even got a trade deal with the US yet?
        
               | jlokier wrote:
               | No it hasn't, and the type of deal it is going to get
               | looks likely to be different under Biden than under
               | Trump. I think your point is relevant regarding ARM-
               | Nvidia, as semiconductor technology has tended to be the
               | subject of trade barriers, and is seen as a strategic
               | national asset.
        
               | rusk wrote:
               | Yeah that's what I was kind of getting at ... great
               | British success story, bought by SoftBank Japan
               | coincidentally straight after Brexit. Would have been a
               | good asset to have in trade negotiations. The sale to US
               | based Nvidia 3 months ago is an interesting twist that
               | would have gone against the EU had Trump won again.
        
           | hmottestad wrote:
           | Both AMD and Apple Are fabless, so maybe The EU can partner
           | with them like how Apple has partnered with TSMC.
        
           | Nokinside wrote:
           | ARM IP, even full architectural license, is relatively small
           | percentage of the cost of a semiconductor. Know-how for
           | fables microarchitecture designs is widely distributed. Most
           | fabless work goes to specialized asics.
           | 
           | It's the inability for SMIC to obtain EUV lithography
           | equipment for their sub-7nm process technologies from ASML
           | that prevents China from getting into high-end
           | semiconductors, not the domestic microarchitecture know-how.
        
             | mafribe wrote:
             | I agree with you.
             | 
             | Here is an interesting question: how long will it take
             | China to catch up? _I predict 10 years!_ The Chinese
             | government sees a leading position in semi manufacture as
             | being of extreme strategic importance. There are several
             | reasons why I think China will succeed other than
             | government strategy: the size of the Chinese market
             | (already the biggest processor market in the world), the
             | ease with which Taiwanese semi expertise can be brought to
             | China (legally, salaries are just higher in Shanghai than
             | in Taipei).
        
             | stevespang wrote:
             | Good, keep the sub 7 nm process out of China's military
             | hands, they have proven to be an arrogant and expansionist
             | mindset and enslaving millions of Uighurs, organ
             | harvesting, other crimes.
        
             | geogra4 wrote:
             | Does that change with the China eu trade deal?
        
               | himlion wrote:
               | I don't think the US will allow that. They probably have
               | enough leverage.
        
               | DSingularity wrote:
               | I think they squandered that recently. We will see with
               | Biden but the Trump administration basically encouraged
               | Brexit and repeatedly adopted anti- EU positions in key
               | geopolitical issues (Syria, NATO, Iran, Israel, and
               | Ukraine). These things come with a cost and the EU will
               | try to rectify this. Enhancing Chinas CPU tech by a few
               | generations might be worth it if it can advance EU
               | interests and ensure future good-faith from a supposed
               | ally.
        
               | CountSessine wrote:
               | Enhancing China's CPU tech even a single generation is in
               | the EU's interest in exactly 0 alternate universes, along
               | with this one.
               | 
               | As long as the US has the world's only reserve currency
               | and as long as the EU economy - especially the productive
               | bit in the North - is built on exporting to the all-
               | powerful US consumer, the EU has very little leverage in
               | its affairs with the US.
        
               | usr1106 wrote:
               | > the EU has very little leverage in its affairs with the
               | US.
               | 
               | The final word has not been spoken. Construction of Nord
               | Stream 2 has recently been restarted despite the US
               | threatening with sanctions.
        
           | baybal2 wrote:
           | > I think much of the relevant general-purpose chip design
           | knowledge we had (ARM) left the EU this morning.
           | 
           | Does that even marginally matter?
           | 
           | Even after Brexit, both EU, and UK will remain open
           | economies, unless you believe a conspiracy theory that Boris
           | is a closet communist.
        
         | FartyMcFarter wrote:
         | Look at it and ponder how amazing it is that we've built this
         | with our monkey brains:
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBdMRUG69uc
         | 
         | So many disciplines of engineering going into this machine!
        
         | kasperni wrote:
         | The previous top model NXE:3400B, "weighs 180 tons and needs 20
         | trucks or three fully loaded Boeing 747s for shipment. The
         | price tag is $120 million." [1]
         | 
         | [1] https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-
         | d....
        
           | tape_measure wrote:
           | That's ~$.66/g. A car at that price would be around $1M.
        
           | Nokinside wrote:
           | Most of that is packaging, seriously. The purity requirements
           | and vibrational limits for those parts are very high.
           | 
           | ASML has plans to get into sub 1nm level. 2nm and 1.5 nm is
           | already in the pipeline.
           | 
           | The technology high-NA EUV (high Numerical Aperture Extreme
           | Ultraviolet) becomes just insane. Mirror manufacturing
           | process requires atomic scale corrections and the whole
           | metrology is moved into vacuum.
           | 
           | The limit for mass production is measuring and calibration.
           | The measurement accuracy is comparable or exeeding Large
           | Hadron Collideror gravitational-wave astronomy. The speed
           | (wafers per hour) must eventually slow down, requiring more
           | machines and making the process more expensive. Then Moore's
           | law finally dies due to the cost.
        
             | BlueTemplar wrote:
             | I was wondering how much farther down they could
             | theoretically go : Typical Si-Si bond length is actually
             | only 0.24 nm !
        
             | jlokier wrote:
             | > The measurement accuracy is comparable or exeeding [..]
             | gravitational-wave astronomy
             | 
             | A nitpick: You are greatly underestimating the precision in
             | gravitational-wave astronomy.
             | 
             | ASML's atomic scale corrections are approximately _one
             | billion_ times larger than the fraction-of-a-proton 's
             | width displacements measured by LIGO.
             | 
             | From https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/page/facts:
             | 
             | > At its most sensitive state, LIGO will be able to detect
             | a change in distance between its mirrors 1/10,000th the
             | width of a proton! This is equivalent to measuring the
             | distance to the nearest star (some 4.2 light years away) to
             | an accuracy smaller than the width of a human hair.
        
               | mafuy wrote:
               | That's insane! Thanks for sharing
        
         | baybal2 wrote:
         | > ASML is #2 company in EURO STOXX 50 index with 5.69% weight.
         | 
         | And not a small part to gigantic speculative expectations
         | around tech sector in general, which seem to have crossed the
         | Atlantic this year.
         | 
         | So much speculative interest has never been a good thing as we
         | know.
        
         | 11thEarlOfMar wrote:
         | If the EU treats this as a strategic capability and not
         | commercial, the spending is much less of a consideration.
         | 
         | The advantage that the EU has is in fact ASML. No company can
         | make the 5nm litho systems today, and catching up with the
         | decades of R&D they've invested is not feasible. They are the
         | greatest achievement of science and technology on the planet.
         | [0]
         | 
         | The strategy that can work is for the EU to partner with TSMC
         | to build a foundry in the EU that produces at the node they
         | want to intercept (2 nm?). Then, make a business arrangement
         | that puts European scientists and engineers into high-value
         | roles. That would enable the EU to develop the technical skills
         | and keep China from locking it up.
         | 
         | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25361028
        
           | aeyes wrote:
           | We have been trying to help Infineon get onto its own feet
           | for years and years, it just isn't happening. The investment
           | it would take for competing with TSMC would require massive
           | government support with very few benefits. Specialized chips
           | with higher margins but older tech make more sense than mass
           | production with the most advanced process.
           | 
           | Same with solar or battery tech, we have the tech and the
           | people but economically it isn't feasible to have production
           | in the EU.
        
           | coolgod wrote:
           | > No company can make the 5nm litho systems today, and
           | catching up with the decades of R&D they've invested is not
           | feasible. They are the greatest achievement of science and
           | technology on the planet. [0]
           | 
           | Those are some huge claims, which could have previously been
           | said for many currently outdated technologies.
        
             | 11thEarlOfMar wrote:
             | This truism is known to ASML as well, and they are ramping
             | R&D spending to maintain or expand their lead. [0]
             | 
             | Just as an example, the dimension of the features their
             | tool prints are smaller than the wavelength of light that
             | is actually doing the printing.
             | 
             | [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100162/randd-
             | costs-of-a...
        
           | sigstoat wrote:
           | > The strategy that can work is for the EU to partner with
           | TSMC to build a foundry in the EU that produces at the node
           | they want to intercept (2 nm?).
           | 
           | that's hardly in Taiwan's geopolitical interest. perhaps if
           | the EU made some serious political concessions to Taiwan.
        
             | ku-man wrote:
             | When it comes to geopolitics the EU has the impetuous of
             | Vanuatu.
        
           | dmix wrote:
           | Man, I wish I too shared such optimism in EU or other massive
           | multi government bureaucratic organizations to pull something
           | off like this in 2021. But sorry I simply don't.
           | 
           | From my experience with gov trying to do tech investment it's
           | going to go into the pockets of late career overpaid
           | 'executives' with 'industry experience' and tons of (also
           | overpaid and underqualified) contractors doing the same
           | thing. Not the brilliant engineers you imagine are going to
           | run it.
           | 
           | I mean I _hope_ it goes to the engineers and smart dudes (who
           | doesn't want another successful semi competitor and 2nm?) and
           | not the ones who know how to play the political game the best
           | but I'm highly highly skeptical.
           | 
           | We'll see in a few years I guess.
           | 
           | And I say that fully understanding ASML and the value they
           | currently provide. But let's hope who ever doles this out
           | understands it as well as (maybe) half the people in this
           | thread.
           | 
           | But even ignoring that giant elephant in the room, it adds
           | the critical question why should ASML care to give special
           | treatment to this one project? They are already killing it
           | globally. Just because they operate in EU and this offers
           | shit loads of money to potentially fleece?
        
             | 908B64B197 wrote:
             | > Not the brilliant engineers you imagine are going to run
             | it.
             | 
             | I have no doubts brilliant European engineers are going to
             | work on the hard problems of shipping a next gen chip
             | process and design... In America!
             | 
             | What the EU should do is earmark some of that money to be
             | directly paid as engineering salaries. Of course they
             | won't: that would reduce the piece of the pie of all the
             | non-technical managers and bureaucrats!
        
               | csunbird wrote:
               | > I have no doubts brilliant European engineers are going
               | to work on the hard problems of shipping a next gen chip
               | process and design... In America!
               | 
               | Exactly. The salaries in EU are pitiful.
        
             | mafribe wrote:
             | As far as I understand, ASML is _not_ the creation of
             | government funding, but instead a spinout of Philip and
             | ASMI, two successful Dutch electronics companies. ASML was
             | successful in a competitive market, dominated by Japanese
             | companies pretty quickly.
             | 
             | In other words, very different model from what the EU is
             | currently trying.
        
               | 11thEarlOfMar wrote:
               | You are correct. The discussion about ASML is relevant in
               | that state of the art chips cannot be produced without
               | one of their TwinScan lithography tools. ASML is the only
               | company that can build tools with 7nm and below
               | capability.
               | 
               | In the context of the EU developing the ability to
               | fabricate state-of-the-art chips, ASML would sell them
               | the TwinScan tools they needed, which are just one
               | species of about 40 that are used for chip fabrication.
        
               | mafribe wrote:
               | ASML would also sell those tools without prodding by the
               | EU. ASML would dearly love to sell them to SMIC and other
               | Chinese foundry too, if the US would let them.
               | 
               | Lithography machines are a functioning market that is
               | interfered with for geo-strategic reasons.
        
             | bojan wrote:
             | Considering what it has to do and support, the EU has
             | surprisingly little bureaucracy, although obviously it's
             | huge in absolute terms.
        
             | supernova87a wrote:
             | I think I share your concern -- it's a question of "is a
             | top down order to develop some technology (with required
             | investment to 'force' it to happen) the best way to achieve
             | that?"
             | 
             | What often ends up happening is that because it's so
             | "strategically important" and so much money has been
             | directed towards it, you are obligated to have expensive
             | ("experienced") people hired based on past reputation --
             | which may not be applicable to new technology, roadmaps get
             | laid out which everyone has to say they're meeting
             | successfully, and then at the end you find out somehow that
             | it didn't produce what you wanted.
             | 
             | Versus, a more bottoms-up approach where you hopefully
             | create the conditions that incentivize or make possible
             | some technologies and technologists to succeed -- without
             | knowing fully who exactly or what exactly.
             | 
             | I'm sure that both have some inefficiencies, but the 1st
             | method is sure to pay the people who have already been
             | successful. But then again, maybe for a relatively
             | incremental advance in some technology, there are fewer
             | unknowns and method #1 works ok.
        
             | 11thEarlOfMar wrote:
             | I don't think this requires anything special from ASML.
             | They'd sell systems to the TSMC/EU partnership. The key is
             | that the process engineers in the fab would learn how to
             | develop processes for the leading edge geometries. To some
             | extent, ASML engineers would know this, too. However, the
             | secret recipes (literally) of chip production are so
             | closely guarded that even the equipment companies for the
             | tools they run on are not permitted to see them.
             | 
             | I completely agree that consortium-based organizations are
             | less able to respond and react to changes or issues. That's
             | why it needs to be treated as a strategic (defense) matter
             | rather than a government/industry partnership, a-la
             | Sematech in the US.
        
             | usr1106 wrote:
             | > Man, I wish I too shared such optimism in EU or other
             | massive multi government bureaucratic organizations to pull
             | something off like this in 2021. But sorry I simply don't.
             | 
             | I can understand your concerns. But if you look at mid-
             | range airplanes the European monster Airbus did respectably
             | catch up with incumbent Boeing.
             | 
             | In with the Jumbos they clearly surpassed it engineering-
             | wise but failed in their commercial predictions that such
             | planes would be needed.
             | 
             | So EU is neither a guarantee for failure nor for success.
        
           | Nokinside wrote:
           | Pretty much. All big players (US, EU, China) must maintain
           | domestic strategically important industries (aerospace,
           | energy, semiconductors, telecom, drugs/biotech ...) even with
           | government subsidies.
           | 
           | The goal of strategic investment is to stay as one of the
           | major players in the industry. Being the leader is not
           | necessary, but letting the deep core and knowledge in
           | manufacturing to erode is strategic weakness.
        
             | f6v wrote:
             | Exactly the opposite happened in Russia and other ex-soviet
             | countries. The factories were sold and dismantled under the
             | pretense of "transitioning to market economy".
        
               | akrymski wrote:
               | Assets were sold to friends and family, with massive
               | kickbacks and for a fraction of their market value.
               | 
               | This can't happen in EU today.
        
               | stelonix wrote:
               | Most of the time with countries not directly aligned to
               | the west, the preaching is for us to sell our strategic
               | industries in name of liberalism and "economic openness",
               | usually spreading lies and misinformation about the
               | company's efficiency. When it's the other way around,
               | it's protectionism and good old Keynesian economics:
               | China can't buy that company, their 5g is evil etc.
               | 
               | I know this first-hand because it has happened to my
               | country each and every time an US backed president was
               | elect. It's happening right now, they're attempting to
               | sell our only semiconductor company.
               | 
               | The Soviet Union was destroyed from within much the same
               | way the 2010s arab springs/ukraine and more recently also
               | tried with HK.
        
               | samat wrote:
               | There is a popular myth that 'there was a mighty USSR and
               | some enemies ruined it'.
               | 
               | The Soviet Union collapsed because of massively broken
               | economy. That's just basic science. They exported oil and
               | imported grain. Russia imported GRAIN for gods sake. Then
               | oil prices collapsed. Next? They did nothing and just ate
               | through the resources until they were no more.
               | 
               | And then 'evil liberals/evil west destroying the great
               | country' happened, when finally USSR had no money to pay
               | for the social obligations and for massive military.
               | 
               | This are the undisputed facts, supported by a vast trove
               | of internal documents from the late USSR and first years
               | of the Russian Federations.
               | 
               | A monograph by Egor Gaidar [1] is an excellent source
               | referencing tons of the original documents.
               | 
               | Sorry for Russian, not sure this is available in English
               | anywhere.
               | 
               | I get that it's easier to think that source of our
               | problems is some evil mastermind and conspiracy. But
               | think of the Occam's razor -- this is explained much
               | easier by sheer incompetency and stupidity and no checks
               | and balances to mitigate them.
               | 
               | 1. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibel'_imperii_(monograf
               | iia)
        
               | f6v wrote:
               | The truth is in between. Was USSR full of internal
               | problems? Yes. Did USA and allies want USSR destroyed and
               | actively work on? Also yes. Saying that Cold War and the
               | arms race had absolutely no role in USSR collapse is
               | either a blatant lie or incompetence.
        
               | stelonix wrote:
               | Exactly. Had the west not interfered, the USSR would
               | recover from the 80s crisis. Instead, they took advantage
               | of its shortcomings and managed to break up the union:
               | Gorbachev is considered by many Russians a traitor, but
               | he was not the only western investment in toppling the
               | Soviet Union.
               | 
               | Let's remind that full-on opening of the market was not
               | what the west promised, but it's what they pushed for
               | once the reforms passed a point of no return and they
               | wouldn't take "no" for an answer. Propaganda is what won
               | the cold war.
        
               | jbay808 wrote:
               | > They did nothing and just ate through the resources
               | until they were no more.
               | 
               | Those resources they ate through -- when were they
               | accumulated? I find it hard to believe that they became a
               | superpower by just coasting on the wealth that existed in
               | 1917.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | tasubotadas wrote:
               | They were non-competitive businesses producing outdated
               | junk and in majority of cases there was no other way to
               | survive apart of being sold for scrap.
               | 
               | Some manufacturers that produced basic sellable goods
               | survived (steel foundries, fertilizer makers)
        
               | lumost wrote:
               | Price signals following the soviet collapse were non
               | functioning ( see the current oligarchs ). It's hard to
               | know how many of these factories could have adapted over
               | a slightly longer time frame or with some slight
               | investment restructuring.
               | 
               | When the price of a corporation falls below their paper
               | assets it tends to attract A certain kind of investor
               | disinterested in long term value. I'd venture a good
               | number of soviet parts suppliers saw their revenues dry
               | up when their clients were dismantled, it wouldn't have
               | taken more than a few such links in the supply chain
               | being dismantled to break the entire supply chain given
               | the level of centralization.
        
               | f6v wrote:
               | That's exactly the narrative that was used. I guess
               | that's why Yeltsin was such a good friend to the west and
               | why he's despised by many Russians.
               | 
               | I mean, sure, many factories were not competitive since
               | they were highly subsidized and faced no competition on
               | internal market. But USSR had an immense R&D potential
               | and engineering education was top-notch.
        
               | eecc wrote:
               | No. There's significant evidence that sudden overnight
               | market manipulation (e.g. setting exchange parity to the
               | eastern and western Deutsche Mark destroyed all eastern
               | consumer goods industries, which were bought for symbolic
               | sums and then deliberately shuttered.) it's obvious that
               | any such fundamentalist and radically liberalist policy
               | would have tore through any economy, but the point was to
               | smother Carthage, and sow salt on its ruins
        
               | chx wrote:
               | This is not true, several precision mechanics factories
               | (or parts of factories) in Hungary were producing for
               | Western export and yet they let them rot apart.
        
               | dzhiurgis wrote:
               | Some fertiliser plants (Achema for example) still rely on
               | exclusively signed contracts with Russia for buying cheap
               | natural gas (its main cost) aka there's some underwater
               | influence there.
        
             | GregarianChild wrote:
             | aerospace, energy, semiconductors,         telecom,
             | drugs/biotech
             | 
             | The EU lost leadership in all of them! (And some others!)
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | > aerospace
               | 
               | Airbus is absolutely crushing Boeing in terms of quality.
               | Granted, we are woefully behind on the 'space' part of
               | aerospace.
               | 
               | > energy
               | 
               | CERN is anchored to the EU. ITER is anchored to the EU.
               | We are world leaders in wind energy.
               | 
               | > telecom
               | 
               | Except for everyone in the West scrambling to replace
               | Huawei with Ericsson tech.
               | 
               | > drugs / biotech
               | 
               | BioNtech made the first breakthrough on a COVID vaccine.
               | 
               | The EU has many issues, but losing leadership in the
               | sectors you mentioned is not one of them.
        
               | kingosticks wrote:
               | > Except for everyone in the West scrambling to replace
               | Huawei with Ericsson tech.
               | 
               | That's entirely political and nothing to do with the
               | tech. Huawei's tech is arguably better, cheaper (and
               | available now).
        
               | jryle70 wrote:
               | > Airbus is absolutely crushing Boeing in terms of
               | quality. Granted, we are woefully behind on the 'space'
               | part of aerospace
               | 
               | Such a hyperbole statement.
               | 
               | Airbus has the edge in the narrowbody aircraft market,
               | especially A321, while Boeing is plagued by 737 MAX
               | problem.
               | 
               | OTOH Airbus is well behind Boeing in the widebody
               | segment. Boeing had 1,464 787 orders as of Aug 2019, 882
               | of those had been delivered. Airbus had only sold 913
               | A350. A380 has been discontinued while Boeing can still
               | count on B748 freighter.
               | 
               | Of course 2020 threw a wrench to the airline industry and
               | it remains to be seen how well it will recover post
               | pandemic. Both Airbus and Boeing are affected deeply.
        
               | adventured wrote:
               | > CERN is anchored to the EU. ITER is anchored to the EU.
               | 
               | Anchored, yeah sure. So you're listing something that
               | isn't in the EU, which is revealing. ITER is entirely
               | irrelevant. It's a pork project that won't result in
               | much. The biggest breakthroughs in fusion will derive
               | from smaller projects, not giant slow-moving projects
               | like ITER. The next 20-30 years of energy generation is
               | wind, natural gas, oil, solar, some hydrogen and nuclear
               | (and primarily only China is brave enough to build that).
               | Fusion will make zero contribution in that time.
               | 
               | > BioNtech made the first breakthrough on a COVID
               | vaccine.
               | 
               | Moderna was just as well positioned as BioNtech, you're
               | more than reaching. Russia and China also have apparently
               | successful vaccines being deployed.
               | 
               | > The EU has many issues, but losing leadership in the
               | sectors you mentioned is not one of them.
               | 
               | That's true in the sense that the EU never had leadership
               | in most fields to begin with.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | Fusion research needs a lot of money and resources. I
               | honestly doubt it can be done by a startup. Nuclear
               | fission was done by very well funded military research.
               | It is true that China has licensed basically every
               | nuclear design, but France is still a leader in nuclear
               | fission.
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | > Anchored, yeah sure. So you're listing something that
               | isn't in the EU, which is revealing
               | 
               | It is surrounded by EU countries, in a country that is a
               | pseudo-EU member. You're reaching.
               | 
               | > ITER is entirely irrelevant. It's a pork project that
               | won't result in much.
               | 
               | Unless you have a seer's eye, these kinds of claims are
               | baseless.
               | 
               | > The next 20-30 years of energy generation is wind,
               | natural gas, oil, solar, some hydrogen and nuclear (and
               | primarily only China is brave enough to build that)
               | 
               | Agreed and a sad state of affairs
               | 
               | > Moderna was just as well positioned as BioNtech
               | 
               | Which makes Moderna a leader too? It doesn't diminish
               | BioNtech's work.
               | 
               | > That's true in the sense that the EU never had
               | leadership in most fields to begin with.
               | 
               | You literally had to ignore multiple points in my parent
               | comment to even be able to make this claim. Revealing..
               | 
               | Edit: not to mention we are commenting under an article
               | that partly concerns ASML..
        
               | Nokinside wrote:
               | What did I just wrote about leadership and it's
               | importance?
        
               | GregarianChild wrote:
               | One might wonder if the EU has leadership capacity to be
               | able to maintain domestic strategically important
               | industries.
               | 
               | Generalising from 40 years of EU history, I have little
               | confidence. The top US and East Asian processor and
               | semiconductor companies all are extremely successful in
               | the marketplace, in addition to consuming government
               | subsidies. Fostering a competitive market has not been
               | the EU's forte. Indeed the EU narrates this funding as a
               | need to address a "market failure" [1]. I feel that this
               | is one-dimensional, bur entirely predictable from the
               | structure of EU decision making.
               | 
               | Just today, at midnight, the EU lost ARM and DeepMind as
               | domestic industries.
               | 
               | [1] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
               | content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52...
        
               | justicezyx wrote:
               | I know nVidia bought Arm, but what is about DeepMind
               | being lost as domestic industry?
               | 
               | It raises to prominence after becoming a Google wholly
               | owned subdiary. I have repeated multiple times in other
               | comments that DeepMind's success is at least built on top
               | of Google's tech and capital.
               | 
               | Interesringly, Google's tech infrastructure were
               | blueprinted by a lot of pioneers and two of the most well
               | known are Urs Hozle and Luiz Andre Barroso both are of Eu
               | descentdent.
               | 
               | There is no evidence that whatever DeepMind did can be
               | done with another EU partner. Or even anyone who is not
               | Google, largely thanks to Larry and Sergey's personal
               | tastes and experience. I doubt Msft or Amazon have the
               | right culture for DeepMind.
               | 
               | The whole alphabet thing was engineered to allow
               | independency. So that, among other things, a more pure
               | research org can work without the ever encroaching of the
               | profit driven hands inside Google. Mind you, DeepMind
               | absolutely put itself above Google, or at least firmly
               | distance itself from Google, GCP once proposed to use
               | DeepMind brand in marketing materials, and was sharply
               | rejected citing "conflicting brand images".
        
               | wwtrv wrote:
               | I assume, they meant the UK finally fully leaving the EU
               | this year rather than the sale to Nvidia
        
               | usr1106 wrote:
               | Right. So if the Nvidia deal succeeds ARM will be US
               | American.
               | 
               | I have no idea whether any of the relevant antitrust
               | official could still stop it.
        
               | lumost wrote:
               | The parent is alluding to the notion that govt investment
               | made for sluggish state owned industries which aim to be
               | second and suck the life out of any domestic competition.
               | 
               | There are a variety of ways to cultivate a domestic
               | industry, govt committees directly investing doesn't seem
               | like the leading candidate can. Trade barriers and state
               | sponsored industrial partnerships.
        
         | baybal2 wrote:
         | > TWINSCAN NXE:3400C is probably the most expensive machine in
         | the world.
         | 
         | Unfortunately no. A number of pieces of military hardware
         | produced in bigger numbers will leave even that pricetag in the
         | dust.
        
           | dash2 wrote:
           | It's not wholly clear that aircraft carriers etc. should
           | count as machines. What if we limit the definition to
           | "something used to make other things"?
        
             | baybal2 wrote:
             | Most gigantic blast furnaces, or hydraulic instruments on
             | record if you correct for inflation? Though, most things
             | like these made little sense economically even back in the
             | days they were built.
        
           | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
           | Like what?
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | joejerryronnie wrote:
             | Do aircraft carriers count in this context? They're
             | reasonably expensive to produce.
        
               | jmnicolas wrote:
               | > reasonably expensive
               | 
               | The USS Ford is said to cost around 13 billions. I
               | wouldn't call that "reasonable" :)
               | 
               | https://usadefensenews.com/2020/11/13/meet-the-us-
               | navys-13-b...
        
               | mrep wrote:
               | Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers are being built at
               | 13 billion a piece:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_R._Ford-
               | class_aircraft_...
        
             | paulnechifor wrote:
             | The next Air Force One supposedly costs 4 billion:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Force_One#VC-25B .
        
             | baybal2 wrote:
             | Fighter jets, bombers, few missile systems, air defence
             | systems, subs, and surface military ships... the list would
             | be long.
        
             | ClumsyPilot wrote:
             | B2 spirit costs more than its weight in gold, clocking in
             | at close to a billion
        
               | paulnechifor wrote:
               | 3.17 billion in 2019 dollars, or 1.11 if you exclude the
               | sunk costs.
        
             | shi314 wrote:
             | There are plenty aircraft models like B-2 Spirit, F-22
             | Raptor etc. that cost above $200 million.
        
         | soygul wrote:
         | Bagger 293 probably is the most expensive machine. It costs
         | $100M to build one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagger_293
        
           | JKCalhoun wrote:
           | Fascinating. Had to look it up -- the photos of it are mind
           | boggling.
           | 
           | I have to say though, from Wikipedia, sounds like there are
           | only a few of them? Sort of one-offs, each of them (so to
           | speak). I kind of think that might disqualify them.
           | 
           | Like calling the ISS the most expensive machine?
        
           | tda wrote:
           | Floating versions of those machines (dredging vessels) are in
           | the 300M range. And the offshore installation vessel
           | Pioneering Spirit came in at 2.6B:
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pioneering_Spirit_(ship)
        
       | I_am_tiberius wrote:
       | Planned economy at works.
        
       | dirtyid wrote:
       | Exciting development. Not many power blocs has the prerequisites
       | to pull this off, though EU coordination capabilities still
       | questionable.
        
       | bogomipz wrote:
       | I always find these discussion around the business of chip
       | production interesting and since there's always many
       | knowledgeable people on these I wanted to ask if anyone has a
       | good recommendations for books on the business of chip
       | production?
        
       | random5634 wrote:
       | Listening to the EU bang on about state subsidies (they are very
       | worried UK might subsidize some industry) always makes me laugh.
       | 
       | The EU farm and many other policies are basically state aid. I'm
       | not against it, but stop with the hypocritical denouncements.
        
       | aristophenes wrote:
       | Anyone familiar with EU politics care to comment on how likely it
       | is that this funding actually goes through, and a probable
       | timeline?
        
       | disabled wrote:
       | This makes me so excited as an electrical engineering student
       | pursuing her masters degree in the European Union, as a dual
       | US|EU citizen!
        
       | credit_guy wrote:
       | So, first thing when it comes to big dollar (or in this case
       | Euro) numbers: some of these funds will be loans, not grants. In
       | this case the split will be about 50-50.
       | 
       | Second, this is not new money, this is part of recovery funds
       | already allocated in July 2020 for combating the economic
       | recession created by the Coronavirus [1]. These funds were
       | already earmarked for environmental and digital initiatives. This
       | declaration is probably a clarification of how much is given
       | specifically to the digital initiatives.
       | 
       | This looks quite smart to me. In the US neither the original
       | CARES act ($1.4 TN) passed in March, nor the new stimulus bill
       | ($0.9 TN) has any funds dedicated to cutting edge industries.
       | There were instead funds for airline companies and cruise lines.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU#Recovery_fu...
        
         | adventured wrote:
         | > In the US neither the original CARES act ($1.4 TN) passed in
         | March, nor the new stimulus bill ($0.9 TN) has any funds
         | dedicated to cutting edge industries.
         | 
         | That's because the US largely doesn't have to do that. The
         | reason the US has a couple hundred major technology companies
         | and Europe doesn't is due to its far superior venture capital
         | market, which Europe almost entirely lacks by relative scale
         | and so it has to try to make up for it with government money
         | (which has been a repeated approach in Europe going back
         | decades now, it hasn't worked well).
        
           | dmix wrote:
           | This is true. Canada has been trying to spend hundreds of
           | millions or billions (under a series of different names and
           | projects) to develop a domestic SV like tech sector and it
           | keeps failing.
           | 
           | Our smartest people keep leaving to the US and taking US
           | venture capital. Or selling to US companies. All for very
           | good reasons. It's where the rest of the smart people are.
           | I'm convinced that's what matters most, the people, not just
           | billions of dollars won't replace that.
           | 
           | If anything it's quite obvious the US gov should be investing
           | in infrastructure (transit, urban development, etc) like a
           | good gov instead of venturing into even more territories
           | pretending they can compete with highly advanced industries
           | (be that finance or tech).
           | 
           | These governments, not just US, have enough things they are
           | already struggling to deliver on. I really wouldn't recommend
           | they also pretend they are venture capitalists or worse
           | starting the organization themselves.
           | 
           | Even old school NASA success was a lucky collection of semi-
           | nationalizing a bunch of already successful private industry,
           | academia, and a hardcore Cold War patriotic mission. And I
           | should note one of the most famous people who helped get the
           | US to the moon was Canadian:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Chamberlin
           | 
           | One could argue NASA slowly lost that powerhouse ability as
           | it became just another hundred billion dollar gov project.
           | They still do great things but nowhere near the scale or
           | speed as the past.
        
       | [deleted]
        
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