https://has-electricity-decoupled-yet.strommarktberatung.de

HASELECTRICITYDECOUPLEDYET.COM DE-LU * EPEX Day-Ahead * TTF Gas * EU
ETS CO2
German electricity market * updated daily
Has electricity decoupled from gas prices in Germany?
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Electricity YTD avg
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Gas-implied (YTD)
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Decoupling spread
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Negative price hours
[?]
Price History Actual DA electricity vs gas-implied electricity price
* EUR/MWh annual average
Decoupling Spread Actual minus gas-implied * negative = electricity
cheaper than gas would predict
Annual Data All prices EUR/MWh * CO2 EUR/tCO2

                              TTF     CO2    Gas cost CO2 cost
Year Electricity Gas-Implied  Gas    (EUA)    TTF x    EUA x   Spread
                                               1.8      0.35
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Methodology

What does "decoupled" mean? In a gas-dominated electricity market,
the marginal generator setting the price is almost always a gas-fired
power plant (CCGT). That means electricity prices are structurally
linked to gas prices -- when gas rises, electricity rises with it.
Decoupling happens when enough zero-marginal-cost renewable
generation (wind, solar) pushes gas off the margin for enough hours
that the annual average electricity price no longer tracks gas.

Implied electricity price = TTF gas x 1.8 + CO2 price x 0.35

The formula: A modern combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) at ~55%
efficiency consumes 1.8 MWh of gas to produce 1 MWh of electricity,
and emits approximately 0.35 tonnes of CO2 per MWh output. The
operator must purchase EU ETS allowances for those emissions. This
gives the short-run marginal cost of a gas plant -- the floor below
which gas generators won't bid into the day-ahead market.

Decoupling threshold: We flag a year as "decoupled" when actual
electricity prices trade more than 20% below the gas-implied level.
The verdict flips to YES when either the current or most recent
completed year clears that threshold. The 20% gap accounts for the
fact that gas doesn't need to disappear entirely -- it just needs to
set the price less often.

Data sources: Electricity prices from Fraunhofer ISE
energy-charts.info (EPEX Spot day-ahead auction, DE-LU bidding zone,
volume-weighted annual average). TTF gas annual averages from ICE/
IEA. EU ETS CO2 from EEX auction settlement data.

Limitations: Electricity prices are volume-weighted by traded volume
at auction -- hours with higher trading volume (typically low-price
hours) carry more weight. TTF and CO2 annual averages are
calendar-year front-month approximations.

Data: Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts.info * ICE TTF * EEX EUA * Updated
daily via cron
Not financial advice. For educational and analytical purposes only.