https://www.newyorker.com/humor/shouts-murmurs/probability-calculator-chances-that-your-friend-bails-tonight Skip to main content The New Yorker * Newsletter Search * The Latest * News * Books & Culture * Fiction & Poetry * Humor & Cartoons * Magazine * Puzzles & Games * Video * Podcasts * Goings On * Shop Open Navigation Menu The New Yorker Shouts & Murmurs Probability Calculator: Chances That Your Friend Bails Tonight By Ellen Harrold March 18, 2026 A figure with head in hands sitting alone at table in a bar. Photograph by Michael Blann / Getty Save this story Save this story Forget everything that you learned in seventh-grade math class. Here's how to accurately determine the actual probability of your friend showing up to those plans later based on the theoretical probability that they just texted to you. "I'm 99% sure I can make it tonight." = 50% chance they'll make it tonight. "I'll for sure be there!" = 83% chance they'll be there. "I could be convinced . . . " = They are in sweatpants, and therefore cannot be convinced. "I'm 50/50 on going tonight." = These are actually pretty good odds. "I'll 100% be there." = 30% chance they'll be there, 70% chance you'll get a text from them five minutes before the meetup time reporting that they're two stops away but just threw up and think it's best if they go home and rest. "Odds are you'll beat me there since I'm coming straight from work." = This person will be too tired to meet you. They'll ultimately claim that they're stuck at the office, but they're going the fuck home. Don't believe me? Check their location. Yup. They just stopped sharing it with you. "90% chance I'm gonna make it." = -3% chance they're gonna make it. "When did it get so cold all of a sudden?!" = Start inviting your backup friends. "I'll most likely be able to get there a little after 8!" = Bring granola bars. You'll eat your first bite of dinner at 9:17 P.M. "I'm 80% in." = This is a reliable statistic; expect an 80% commitment rate. "I'm 80% down." = Very different from "80% in." Any time someone uses the adjective "down" to describe their willingness, divide their reported odds by two. In this case, your friend is actually 40% down, so go ahead and keep that Korean sheet mask on your face a while longer. Fuck it, take your pants off, too. Nobody's going anywhere. "I could be down." = Let's use what we learned above. Zero divided by two? Zero. "We still on for tonight?" = Oof, a question mark? This person unfortunately just got their period, and it was kinda late this month, so it's heavy and crampy and just not a good scene over there. Send food and don't expect to see her for at least seventy-two hours. "O.K. See you tonight. Bring pashmina or similar in case A.C. is blasting in restaurant." = This is your mom. She will be there early and will have already asked the waiter to switch tables three times before your arrival. "Tbh there's about a 10% chance you'll see me at that shit." = You will see them at that shit and you will share a magical, life-changing, though strangely platonic, kiss on the lips. I don't know how else to describe it--you just have to be there to find out. "Hey u here?" = The 50/50 friend showed up! You didn't trust our math and figured they weren't coming, so you bailed. Rookie mistake. More Humor and Cartoons * How to be a mysterious woman who is also in bed by 9:30 P.M. * I'll have kids in a few years, when I'm successful and wealthy and my life is finally perfect. * I am a Tinder guy holding a fish, and I will provide for you. * The most effective group-chat-ending texts. * Common anatomies of disappointing men. * Behold, I have returned from a hike. Enter the Cartoon Caption Contest for a chance to appear in the magazine. Follow @newyorkercartoons on Instagram and sign up for the Daily Humor newsletter for more funny stuff. Ellen Harrold is a standup comedian and actor living in Los Angeles. Read More Rolling Out Our New A.I. Tools Shouts & Murmurs Rolling Out Our New A.I. Tools Rolling Out Our New A.I. Tools Internal memo: Meet our new suite of A.I.-optimized losers and douche bags. Although they are fully agentic, we're sure they will annoy you in all the ways you're accustomed to. By Paige Ferrari More Places Microplastics Can Be Found Humor More Places Microplastics Can Be Found More Places Microplastics Can Be Found In a funk: They couldn't help but notice that the over-all vibe of the online chatter was negative. By Stephanie Redmond Honest Eyelash-Curler Reviews Humor Honest Eyelash-Curler Reviews Honest Eyelash-Curler Reviews Dang, no lashes left behind with this curler. It even reaches those tiny corner lashes. Lifts, separates--the works. Also, the first time I used this curler, I saw God. By Fiona Landers A Birthday-Gift Guide by Your Most Absent Aunt Humor A Birthday-Gift Guide by Your Most Absent Aunt A Birthday-Gift Guide by Your Most Absent Aunt It totally screams "Maya," because she's within driving distance, last I heard, so I probably won't have to pay for shipping. By Pratima Mani "The Carbon Atoms of Saved Things" Poems "The Carbon Atoms of Saved Things" "The Carbon Atoms of Saved Things" "The carbon atom has six electrons / that move faster than bodies move / from one form to another." By Brenda Hillman Big-Screen Remakes Humor Big-Screen Remakes Big-Screen Remakes Fresh from Silicon Valley. By Barry Blitt Clickbait, Decoded Humor Clickbait, Decoded Clickbait, Decoded "I Turned $10 Into $1,000,000 in One Week--Here's How!" What it actually means: I very slowly added five zeroes and two commas. By Jay Martel Say It Again: A Treatment Shouts & Murmurs Say It Again: A Treatment Say It Again: A Treatment If you're on your phone: Clara and Desmond are spies, and they are meeting at a church in Paris. Their names, again, are Clara and Desmond, and they are spies. By John Kenney A Day in the Pre-Internet World, as Understood by Someone Born in 2002 Shouts & Murmurs A Day in the Pre-Internet World, as Understood by Someone Born in 2002 A Day in the Pre-Internet World, as Understood by Someone Born in 2002 When clock radios, film cameras, and the Yellow Pages ruled the world. By S. M. Reznik Kash Patel Can't Contain Himself Blitt's Kvetchbook Kash Patel Can't Contain Himself Kash Patel Can't Contain Himself So much winning to enjoy. By Barry Blitt Prince Andrew Rides Again Blitt's Kvetchbook Prince Andrew Rides Again Prince Andrew Rides Again A storybook ending. By Barry Blitt Cartoon Cautionary Tales Shorts & Murmurs Cartoon Cautionary Tales Cartoon Cautionary Tales Edward Steed animates some of life's most crucial lessons. The New Yorker Sections * News * Books & Culture * Fiction & Poetry * Humor & Cartoons * Magazine * Crossword * Video * Podcasts * 100th Anniversary * Goings On More * Manage Account * Shop The New Yorker * Buy Covers and Cartoons * Conde Nast Store * Digital Access * Subscribe * Newsletters * Jigsaw Puzzle * RSS * Site Map * About * Careers * Contact * F.A.Q. * Media Kit * Press * Accessibility Help * User Agreement * Privacy Policy * Your California Privacy Rights (c) 2026 Conde Nast. All rights reserved. The New Yorker may earn a portion of sales from products that are purchased through our site as part of our Affiliate Partnerships with retailers. The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of Conde Nast. Ad Choices * * * * * * *