https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5638908/walmart-prices-inflation-affordability-shrinkflation

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NPR shopped for 114 items at Walmart to see how prices changed We
found the effects of tariffs and extreme weather, relief (finally!)
in the egg cooler, plus one case of shrinkflation.

Deep Dive

Economy

How have prices changed in a year? NPR checked 114 items at Walmart

January 14, 20265:01 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition

By 

Headshot of Alina Selyukh

Alina Selyukh

, 

Connie Hanzhang Jin

How have prices changed in a year? NPR checked 114 items at Walmart

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An illustration of grocery items in a shopping cart, with upward- and
downward-pointing arrows above certain items.

LIBERTY COUNTY, Ga. -- What brings Greg Reyes to this Walmart south of
Savannah are the low prices. He and his wife keep a close eye on
their limited budget; she's retired and he's disabled. Their grocery
list is always the same. But the prices have been changing.

"I used to pay like $40 a year ago, and now we're paying like $60,"
Reyes says. In his bags today are some chicken, turkey and beef.
Other things simply had to go. "We don't buy ice cream no more
because it's expensive," Reyes says. "It's kind of sad, but we have
to do it like that."

Sponsor Message

The cost of living in the U.S. rose 2.7% in December compared with a
year before, according to Tuesday's federal data. That's a steady
slowdown after a yearslong stretch of intense inflation, but still
painful. The past year also brought a global trade war, as President
Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly all imports. And the world
continued to grapple with extreme weather, from droughts to
downpours.

All of this is showing up in our shopping carts.

NPR series logo

Cost of Living

Since 2018, NPR has tracked the prices of dozens of items at this
suburban Walmart superstore. Walmart is America's most popular
retailer and the world's largest, which gives it the power to
negotiate with suppliers for some of the lowest and most stable
prices.

Here's what we learned on our latest price-check visit, in December.
(Or skip the analysis to see the full details of NPR's shopping cart
.)

Prices in NPR's basket rose 5% on average last year

Almost half the items on NPR's shopping list got more expensive in
2025, including shrimp, Oreo cookies, Coca-Cola and Dove soap. Some
price increases, notably on items made in China and Vietnam, appear
to be tariff related. Other price hikes had to do with weather events
affecting harvests of crops such as cacao and coffee beans.

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Just under a quarter of the items on NPR's list got cheaper,
including eggs, milk and Cheerios. And many packaged foods stayed the
same after years of price hikes.

As affordability became Americans' top concern, big brands began to
worry about shoppers switching to store-label competitors or skipping
some purchases altogether. To entice weary shoppers, NPR found,
Walmart offered more discounts in December than it had in previous
years.

A few disclaimers about our method:

  * We went through almost every aisle in this Walmart to come up
    with the 114 items. (The full table is below.) To account for
    possible changes in package sizes, we focused on the price per
    unit, whether it was an ounce of salsa or a square foot of
    aluminum foil.
  * NPR reached out to the producers of all the items on our list
    that changed in price. Most companies did not respond. The few
    that did -- including Kikkoman and Campbell's -- noted that
    Walmart, as the retailer, has ultimate control over the prices
    that shoppers see on shelves.
  * A Walmart spokesperson said in a statement: "We remain dedicated
    to providing our customers Every Day low prices, with the goal of
    having the lowest price on a basket of goods over time." A store,
    for example, might extract deals from suppliers or charge
    slightly more for several items in order to sell something else
    at a break-even price or even below cost.

Tariffs loom over store shelves

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With tariffs being the biggest story in retail in 2025, signs of
their impact inevitably showed up in Walmart's aisles. Though it's
hard to pin any price increase on tariffs with certainty, the through
line was noticeable.

Some of the biggest price jumps were on items imported from countries
saddled with hefty tariffs: Walmart's store-brand paper folders made
in China (up 46%), swai fish fillets from Vietnam (up 34%),
Farberware's plastic measuring spoons made in China (up 19%) and
Schwinn's infant bike helmet, which used to be made in China but is
now made in Vietnam (up 18%).

Walmart, Farberware and Schwinn did not comment on the impact of
tariffs to NPR, but several other companies did. Dole, whose canned
pineapple from Southeast Asia got 25% more expensive, cited
weather-related crop shortages and tariffs on goods imported from the
region.

The Instacart logo is displayed on a computer monitor and phone.

The Indicator from Planet Money

Can you trust you're getting the same grocery prices as someone else?

Reynolds Wrap, whose aluminum foil rose in price by 13%, called out
"historic and sustained cost increases over the past year, driven by
tariffs, global supply pressures, rising energy costs, and limited
availability." Much of U.S. aluminum comes from Canada, and these
imports now face a 50% tax.

Walmart in May warned that new tariffs would lead to higher prices,
as Trump threatened 145% tariffs on goods from China. The White House
later paused, changed up and even rolled back some of its trade
plans, namely on food items. By August, Walmart officials said tariff
costs were rising "each week," although the company was able to
mitigate many of them. In November, incoming Walmart CEO John Furner
said tariffs brought "less impact" than expected early in the year.

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Climate chaos roiled many industries

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Some of the items with the worst price hikes are repeat offenders:
coffee, beef and chocolate. They, too, were affected by tariffs --
such as beef and coffee coming from Brazil -- but the main culprit was
the weather.

At this Walmart, the price of Maxwell House ground Colombian coffee
rose by 46% in 2025 and its breakfast K-Cups by 34%. The costs of
Hershey's and Lindt chocolates jumped around 26%. A pound of ground
beef went up 30%, and the store now prominently displays a cheaper
option: a blend of beef and ground pork.

The cost of coffee beans has soared as climate change has brought
erratic rainfall patterns, floods and droughts to farmlands. Cacao
harvests, too, have come up short for three years straight; West
African farmers, who grow most of the world's supply, have dealt with
extreme weather, changing climate patterns and disease in their aging
trees. And the U.S. beef supply is at its lowest in decades, driving
cattle prices to record highs, in part because of drought.

Kraft Heinz (which owns Maxwell House), Hershey and Lindt & Sprungli
in statements all cited the unprecedented higher costs of key raw
materials, adding that they've also absorbed or offset part of those
costs.

Shrinkflation continues in the laundry aisle

When inflation peaked after the COVID-19 pandemic, some manufacturers
stealthily raised prices by shrinking their products -- shampoo, paper
towels, chips and candy -- while charging the same or slightly more.
In 2022, for example, NPR's Walmart visit found that Dove soap bars
had shrunk by a quarter of an ounce, while rising in price by a few
cents. (Dove maker Unilever did not comment.)

Last month, NPR spotted one case of shrinkflation: Tide laundry
detergent. But the company says it's actually efficiency.

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NPR first spotted Tide selling less laundry detergent per bottle in
2022: The amount of liquid had shrunk to 92 ounces from 100 ounces
before the pandemic, and the price had risen by a dollar. After that,
the cost stayed the same, but the contents shrank to 84 ounces in
2024 and then to 80 ounces in December.

The label continuously promised enough detergent for 64 loads of
laundry.

Procter & Gamble, which makes Tide as well as Head & Shoulders
shampoo (whose price rose almost 18%), told NPR that both products
saw "meaningful upgrades" in the past year. Tide specifically got the
"most significant upgrade to its liquid formula in over 20 years,"
according to the company, with a "boosted" level of active cleaning
ingredients and updated dosage instructions.

"The result is superior cleaning performance in a smaller dose," a
Procter & Gamble representative said.

Good news! Some things are cheaper

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The biggest price drop finally came for eggs after record highs
earlier in the year due to the persistent bird flu. By December, the
price of a dozen eggs at Walmart dropped 30%. The cost of butter also
dipped, by almost 16%, thanks to a glut in dairy production.

And as inflation-weary shoppers tighten their belts, brands have
started doing something they rarely do: lowering prices. PepsiCo
(maker of Lay's, Cheetos and Tostitos) last month said it would cut
prices to boost sales. General Mills (maker of Cheerios, Betty
Crocker and Annie's) also confirmed it plans to discount roughly
two-thirds of its offerings. NPR's price check found Cheerios costing
19% less than a year ago.

A Walmart spokesperson also told NPR that the chain has added more
discounts (or "rollbacks," in Walmart parlance) than it had in the
past two years. The company cited 13,000 of them in the first three
quarters of 2025, of which about 2,000 became permanent price cuts.

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