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Astrophysics > Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

arXiv:2512.09643 (astro-ph)
[Submitted on 10 Dec 2025]

Title:An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Megaconstellation Close
Conjunctions

Authors:Sarah Thiele, Skye R. Heiland, Aaron C. Boley, Samantha M.
Lawler
View a PDF of the paper titled An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent
Megaconstellation Close Conjunctions, by Sarah Thiele and 3 other
authors
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    Abstract:The number of objects in orbit is rapidly increasing,
    primarily driven by the launch of megaconstellations, an approach
    to satellite constellation design that involves large numbers of
    satellites paired with their rapid launch and disposal. While
    satellites provide many benefits to society, their use comes with
    challenges, including the growth of space debris, collisions,
    ground casualty risks, optical and radio-spectrum pollution, and
    the alteration of Earth's upper atmosphere through rocket
    emissions and reentry ablation. There is substantial potential
    for current or planned actions in orbit to cause serious
    degradation of the orbital environment or lead to catastrophic
    outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to find better ways to
    quantify stress on the orbital environment. Here we propose a new
    metric, the CRASH Clock, that measures such stress in terms of
    the time it takes for a catastrophic collision to occur if there
    are no collision avoidance manoeuvres or there is a severe loss
    in situational awareness. Our calculations show the CRASH Clock
    is currently 2.8 days, which suggests there is now little time to
    recover from a wide-spread disruptive event, such as a solar
    storm. This is in stark contrast to the pre-megaconstellation
    era: in 2018, the CRASH Clock was 121 days.

Comments: Submitted. Welcoming comments
Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)
Cite as:  arXiv:2512.09643 [astro-ph.EP]
          (or arXiv:2512.09643v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)
          https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.09643
          Focus to learn more
          arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history

From: Sarah Thiele [view email]
[v1] Wed, 10 Dec 2025 13:37:34 UTC (401 KB)
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    Frequent Megaconstellation Close Conjunctions, by Sarah Thiele
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