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Computer Science > Software Engineering

arXiv:2503.05040 (cs)
[Submitted on 6 Mar 2025 (v1), last revised 11 Mar 2025 (this
version, v3)]

Title:No Silver Bullets: Why Understanding Software Cycle Time is
Messy, Not Magic

Authors:John C. Flournoy, Carol S. Lee, Maggie Wu, Catherine M. Hicks
View a PDF of the paper titled No Silver Bullets: Why Understanding
Software Cycle Time is Messy, Not Magic, by John C. Flournoy and 3
other authors
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    Abstract:Understanding factors that influence software
    development velocity is crucial for engineering teams and
    organizations, yet empirical evidence at scale remains limited. A
    more robust understanding of the dynamics of cycle time may help
    practitioners avoid pitfalls in relying on velocity measures
    while evaluating software work. We analyze cycle time, a
    widely-used metric measuring time from ticket creation to
    completion, using a dataset of over 55,000 observations across
    216 organizations. Through Bayesian hierarchical modeling that
    appropriately separates individual and organizational variation,
    we examine how coding time, task scoping, and collaboration
    patterns affect cycle time while characterizing its substantial
    variability across contexts. We find precise but modest
    associations between cycle time and factors including coding days
    per week, number of merged pull requests, and degree of
    collaboration. However, these effects are set against
    considerable unexplained variation both between and within
    individuals. Our findings suggest that while common workplace
    factors do influence cycle time in expected directions, any
    single observation provides limited signal about typical
    performance. This work demonstrates methods for analyzing complex
    operational metrics at scale while highlighting potential
    pitfalls in using such measurements to drive decision-making. We
    conclude that improving software delivery velocity likely
    requires systems-level thinking rather than individual-focused
    interventions.

Subjects: Software Engineering (cs.SE)
Cite as:  arXiv:2503.05040 [cs.SE]
          (or arXiv:2503.05040v3 [cs.SE] for this version)
          https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.05040
          Focus to learn more
          arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

Submission history

From: John Flournoy [view email]
[v1] Thu, 6 Mar 2025 23:32:53 UTC (3,775 KB)
[v2] Mon, 10 Mar 2025 17:52:46 UTC (3,775 KB)
[v3] Tue, 11 Mar 2025 18:57:05 UTC (3,775 KB)
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