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Failure Analysis of the Arecibo Observatory 305-Meter Telescope Collapse Committee on Analysis of Causes of Failure and Collapse of the 305-Meter Telescope at the Arecibo Observatory Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Grant CMMI- 2135084 from the National Science Foundation to the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https:// doi.org/10.17226/26982 Cover: Photo courtesy of the Arecibo Observatory, a facility of the National Science Foundation. This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Failure Analysis of the Arecibo Observatory 305-Meter Telescope Collapse. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https:// doi.org/10.17226/26982. PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studya s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeea s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION COMMITTEE ON ANALYSIS OF CAUSES OF FAILURE AND COLLAPSE OF THE 305-METER TELESCOPE AT THE ARECIBO OBSERVATORY ROGER L. McCARTHY (NAE), McCarthy Engineering, Chair RAMA N L. CARRASQUILLO,1 Carrasquillo Associates DIANNE CHONG (NAE), Boeing Engineering, Operations & Technology (retired) ROBERT B. GILBERT (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin W. ALLEN MARR, JR. (NAE), Geocomp, Inc. JOHN R. SCULLY, University of Virginia SAWTEEN SEE, See Robertson Structural Engineers HABIB TABATABAI, University of Wisconsina Milwaukee Study Staff CAMERON OSKVIG, Board Director, Study Director JAYDA WADE, Research Associate (until July 31, 2023) JOSEPH PALMER, SR., Program Assistant RADAKA LIGHTFOOT, Financial Business Partner (until March 20, 2023) DONAVAN THOMAS, Financial Business Partner (from March 20, 2023) 1 Deceased on February 2, 2024. v PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION BOARD ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE CONSTRUCTED ENVIRONMENT JESUS M. DE LA GARZA, Clemson University, Chair BURCU AKINCI, Carnegie Mellon University STEPHEN AYERS, Ayers Group BURCIN BECERIK-GERBER, University of Southern California LEAH BROOKS, The George Washington University MIKHAIL V. CHESTER, Arizona State University JAMES (JACK) DEMPSEY, Asset Management Partnership, LLC LEONARDO DUENAS-OSORIO, Rice University DEVIN K. HARRIS, University of Virginia DAVID J. HAUN, Haun Consulting, Inc. CHRISTOPHER J. MOSSEY, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory ANDREW PERSILY, National Institute of Standards and Technology ROBERT B. RAINES, Atkins Nuclear Secured JAMES RISPOLI, North Carolina State University DOROTHY ROBYN, Boston University SHOSHANNA D. SAXE, University of Toronto Staff CAMERON OSKVIG, Board Director JAMES MYSKA, Senior Program Officer BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Program Officer JOSEPH PALMER, SR., Senior Program Assistant DONAVAN THOMAS, Finance Business Partner vi PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION Dedication This report is dedicated to committee member Dr. RamA3n L. Carrasquillo, who unexpectedly passed away before this reporta s release. His pragmatic and insightful contributions strengthened the report. In addition to his extensive engineering and materials science expertise, his deep connection to Puerto Rico helped the commit- tee develop a nuanced understanding of the community and culture surrounding the Arecibo Observatory. He is remembered by the committee as a thoughtful, warm, and generous colleague. NOTE: Image courtesy of Carrasquillo Associates. vii PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspec- tives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: DONALD CAMPBELL, Cornell University GREGORY G. DEIERLEIN (NAE), Stanford University LENNARD FISK (NAS), University of Michigan DAVID GOODYEAR (NAE), Independent Consultant MARTHA HAYNES (NAS), Cornell University LT. COL. (RET.) CLARENCE (BART) KEMPER, Kemper Engineering Services, LLC MATTHYS LEVY (NAE), Thornton Tomasetti MOHAMMAD MODARRES, University of Maryland JANINE PARDEE, Independent Consultant RANDALL POSTON (NAE), Pivot Engineers Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by WILLIAM F. BAKER, Skidmore Owings and Merrill, LLP, and STEVE BATTEL (NAE), Battel Engineering. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. ix PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION Contents PREFACE xiii SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 7 History of the Arecibo Telescope, 7 Arecibo Telescope Cable System, 12 Statement of Task, 16 2 THE COLLAPSE: WHAT HAPPENED 18 Arecibo Telescope Failure Sequence, 18 Hurricane Maria Hits Arecibo Telescope, 18 Post-Maria Arecibo Telescope Inspections, 22 The Hurricane Maria Aftermath, 26 Bureaucratic Delays in Funding Arecibo Telescope Hurricane Repairs, 28 Sequence of Cable Failure Events, 30 3 ANALYSIS 35 Cable Socket Zinc Creep Failure, 35 Cable End Sockets, 48 Wire Breaks, 49 Earthquake, 55 Wind Speed Consideration in the Arecibo Telescopea s Design, 56 Governing Cable Design Standards, 56 Arecibo Telescope Cable Load, 58 Risk Considerations, 61 Structural Robustness, 63 Monitoring, 65 xi PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xii CONTENTS 4 ARECIBO TELESCOPEa S MANAGEMENT AND OVERSIGHT 70 5 OTHER LESSONS LEARNED 74 State of Knowledge, 74 Continued Research, 75 BIBLIOGRAPHY 76 APPENDIXES A Committee Member Biographical Information 81 B Information-Gathering Activities 84 C Arecibo Telescope Cable Failure Mechanisms Considered by the Committee 86 D Arecibo Telescope Design Issues Considered by the Committee 94 E Acronyms and Abbreviations 96 PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION Preface It has been my privilege to chair this committee of distinguished subject-matter experts in its investigation and final probable cause determination of one of the most publicized and baffling failures of the modern era. It became clear shortly after the Arecibo Telescopea s collapse that the zinc used to anchor the steel supporting cable wires into their sockets had allowed the failed cables to slip out of their sockets, known as spelter sockets. The sockets slowly lost their grip on a critical number of the cable wires via slow zinc a creep,a a process where the zinc deformed slowly at a load below half the socketa s nominal strength. Although the committee agrees with the conclusions from other forensic reports regarding zinc creep at the connection being the failure mechanism, the baffling question was, a Why was there excessive zinc creep at such loading?a Such a failure had never been reported previously in over a century of widespread zinc spelter socket successful use. Fortunately, the committee had the benefit of the detailed analysis and well-documented reports from NASA; Wiss, Janney, Elstner Associates, Inc.; and Thornton Tomasetti, Inc., without which it could not have completed its task. Building on their work, the committee presents a clear and plausible explanation of why the telescopea s sockets failed when no such sockets have ever been reported to have failed before. Unfortunately, there was not enough data available to prove our explanation. It is simply the most plausible hypothesis based on the data we do have. Without the depth and breadth of expertise on the committee, its task would remain uncompleted. I think I speak for everyone on the committee when I say that none of us could have done this alone. I want to thank my colleagues for their unwavering dedication to the task. Their professionalism and competence made my job an enjoyable one. Roger L. McCarthy, Chair Committee on Analysis of Causes of Failure and Collapse of the 305-Meter Telescope at the Arecibo Observatory xiii PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION PREPUBLICATION COPYa SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION Next: Summary >> The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 500 Fifth Street, NW | Washington, DC 20001 Copyright (c) 2024 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Privacy Statement Failure Analysis of the Arecibo Observatory 305-Meter Telescope Collapse Get This Book x Failure Analysis of the Arecibo Observatory 305-Meter Telescope Collapse Buy Paperback | $25.00 MyNAP members save 10% online. Login or Register to save! Download Free PDF Building and operating cutting-edge, custom-designed research facilities presents unique challenges, where prior designs and experience may not be a reliable guide and unprecedented modes of failure can never be fully anticipated. In 2020, the National Science Foundation's telescope at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico collapsed, impacting the work of the National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center. Failure Analysis of the Arecibo Observatory 305-Meter Telescope Collapse analyzes the causes of the collapse through extensive review of prior forensic investigations, information gathering from employees at Arecibo Observatory, study of relevant research, consultations with other experts, and examination of structural analyses, engineering plans, inspection reports, photographs, and repair proposals. This report presents lessons learned and makes recommendations to help ensure the safe operation of other unique, critical science facilities. READ FREE ONLINE Contents * [ ] * Front Matter i-xiv * Summary 1-6 * 1 Introduction 7-17 * 2 The Collapse: What Happened 18-34 * 3 Analysis 35-69 * 4 Arecibo Telescope's Management and Oversight 70-73 * 5 Other Lessons Learned 74-75 * Bibliography 76-78 * Appendixes 79-80 * Appendix A: Committee Member Biographical Information 81-83 * Appendix B: Information-Gathering Activities 84-85 * Appendix C: Arecibo Telescope Cable Failure Mechanisms Considered by the Committee 86-93 * Appendix D: Arecibo Telescope Design Issues Considered by the Committee 94-95 * Appendix E: Acronyms and Abbreviations 96-98 1. x Welcome to OpenBook! You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website. Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features? 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