https://pivot-to-ai.com/2024/08/22/gartner-releases-ai-hype-cycle-for-2024-autonomous-ai-is-on-the-way-apparently/

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Gartner releases AI Hype Cycle for 2024: autonomous AI is on the way!
Apparently

  * Amy and DavidAmy and David
  * 22 August 2024
  * commentary

Gartner has released its 2024 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.
Generative AI has passed the "peak of inflated expectations" and is
now entering the "trough of disillusionment." But don't worry: [
Gartner; Computer World]

    This is accelerating autonomous AI. While the current generation
    of AI models lack agency, AI research labs are rapidly releasing
    agents which can dynamically interact with their environment to
    achieve goals, although this development will be a gradual
    process.

None of this is true at all, but Gartner isn't letting that stop
them!

Gartner has trotted out the "Hype Cycle" since 1995 as an excuse for
failed tech. This is just a seasonal dip, we're actually on the
"Slope of Enlightenment," and a slow progression to the moon is
inevitable!

Back here in reality, most new technologies just fail and go nowhere.
The Economist went through Gartner's recent claims and found that
technologies mostly don't follow Gartner's hype cycle. [Economist, 
archive]

The Hype Cycle has long been known to be trash. Per Michael Mullany's
"8 Lessons from 20 Years of Hype Cycles": [LinkedIn, 2016, archive]

    We think of the Gartner Hype Cycle as a Hero's Journey for
    technologies. And just like the hero's journey, the Hype Cycle is
    a compelling narrative structure.

But stories are fiction, not reality.

As with Gartner's hype-cycle promotion of blockchain a few years ago,
the AI bubble isn't building anything. It's not creating a
foundation. It's just a giant sinkhole for tens of billions of
dollars -- with few returns to justify the costs.

 

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# Gartner# Hype Cycle# Michael Mullany
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