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Economics > General Economics

arXiv:2408.07710 (econ)
[Submitted on 13 Aug 2024]

Title:Uniqueness Bias: Why It Matters, How to Curb It

Authors:Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, M. D. Christodoulou, M.
Zottoli
View a PDF of the paper titled Uniqueness Bias: Why It Matters, How
to Curb It, by Bent Flyvbjerg and 3 other authors
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    Abstract:The paper explores "uniqueness bias," a behavioral bias
    defined as the tendency of planners and managers to see their
    decisions as singular. For the first time, uniqueness bias is
    correlated with forecasting accuracy and performance in
    real-world project investment decisions. We problematize the
    conventional framing of projects as unique and hypothesize that
    it leads to poor project performance. We test the thesis for a
    sample of 219 projects and find that perceived uniqueness is
    indeed highly statistically significantly associated with
    underperformance. Finally, we identify how decision makers can
    mitigate uniqueness bias in their projects through what Daniel
    Kahneman aptly called "decision hygiene," specifically reference
    class forecasting, premortems, similarity-based forecasting, and
    noise audits.

Comments: 30 pages
Subjects: General Economics (econ.GN)
Cite as:  arXiv:2408.07710 [econ.GN]
          (or arXiv:2408.07710v1 [econ.GN] for this version)
          https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.07710
          Focus to learn more
          arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

Submission history

From: Alexander Budzier [view email]
[v1] Tue, 13 Aug 2024 18:29:47 UTC (764 KB)
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