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Physics > Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

arXiv:2406.11738 (physics)
[Submitted on 17 Jun 2024]

Title:Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse

Authors:Emma J.V. Smolders, Rene M. van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra
View a PDF of the paper titled Probability Estimates of a 21st
Century AMOC Collapse, by Emma J.V. Smolders and 1 other authors
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    Abstract:There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional
    Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a
    disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world.
    Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse
    have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical
    analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based
    estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first
    identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a
    recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the
    southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to
    provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model.
    Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability
    density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is
    estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and
    the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is
    estimated to be 59 +/- 17%.

Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph)
Cite as:  arXiv:2406.11738 [physics.ao-ph]
          (or arXiv:2406.11738v1 [physics.ao-ph] for this version)
          https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.11738
          Focus to learn more
          arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

Submission history

From: Emma Smolders [view email]
[v1] Mon, 17 Jun 2024 16:57:26 UTC (4,247 KB)
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