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Current Space Weather Conditions
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HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on
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More about the NOAA Space Weather Scales

WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction

WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Image

  * Usage
  * Impacts
  * Details
  * History
  * Data

WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the
heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4
day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms.  Solar
disturbances have long been known to disrupt communications, wreak
havoc with geomagnetic systems, and to pose dangers for satellite
operations.

Space Weather and GPS Systems
Electric Power Transmission
Satellite Communications
Satellite Drag

The modeling system consists of two main parts: 1) a semi-empirical
near-Sun module that approximates the outflow at the base of the
solar wind; and 2) a sophisticated 3-D magnetohydrodynamic numerical
model that simulates the resulting flow evolution out to Earth. The
former module is driven by observations of the solar surface magnetic
field, as taken over a solar rotation and composited into a synoptic
map; this input is used to drive a parameterized near-Sun expansion
of the solar corona, which is subsequently input into the second,
interplanetary module to compute the quasi-steady (ambient) solar
wind outflow. Finally, when an Earth-directed CME is detected,
coronagraph images from NASA spacecraft are used to characterize the
basic properties of the CME, including timing, location, direction,
and speed. This input (the "cone" model) is injected into the
pre-existing ambient conditions, and the subsequent transient
evolution forms the basis for the prediction of the CME arrival time
at Earth, its intensity, and its duration.

In the movie, the Sun is represented as a yellow dot, the Earth by a
green dot, and the STEREO spacecraft by the red and blue dots.  The
top row represents the WSA-Enlil predicted solar wind density and the
bottom row the predicted solar wind velocity.  On the left is a
pinwheel plot of the ecliptic plane, showing all of the solar wind
structures that are likely to encounter Earth or which have recently
encountered Earth, in what is effectively an 'overhead' view.  While
the STEREO spacecraft are shown, this ecliptic slice does not
normally pass through these satellites, though it is typically fairly
close.  In the middle are meridional slices that go through the
Earth, showing the solar wind structures that will encounter Earth
from a 'side' view.  On the right, the predicted density and velocity
values for the location of Earth and the two STEREO spacecraft are
plotted. 

 

Model implementation at SWPC occurred in October of 2012

The WSA-Enlil archive is available through the National Centers for
Environmental Information.

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  * Home
  * About Space Weather
      + Impacts
          o Earth's Climate
          o Electric Power Transmission
          o GPS Systems
          o HF Radio Communications
          o Satellite Communications
          o Satellite Drag
      + Partners and Stakeholders
          o Commercial Service Providers
          o Federal Agencies
          o International Organizations
          o International Service Providers
          o Space Weather Research
      + Phenomena
          o Aurora
          o Coronal Holes
          o Coronal Mass Ejections
          o Earth's Magnetosphere
          o F10.7 cm Radio Emissions
          o Galactic Cosmic Rays
          o Geomagnetic Storms
          o Ionosphere
          o Ionospheric Scintillation
          o Radiation Belts
          o Solar EUV Irradiance
          o Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts)
          o Solar Radiation Storm
          o Solar Wind
          o Sunspots/Solar Cycle
          o Total Electron Content
      + Additional Info
          o NOAA Space Weather Scales
          o Customer Needs & Requirements Study
  * Products and Data
      + Forecasts
          o 27-Day Outlook of 10.7 cm Radio Flux and Geomagnetic
            Indices
          o 3-Day Forecast
          o 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast
          o Forecast Discussion
          o Predicted Sunspot Numbers and Radio Flux
          o Report and Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
          o Solar Cycle Progression
          o Space Weather Advisory Outlook
          o USAF 45-Day Ap and F10.7cm Flux Forecast
          o Weekly Highlights and 27-Day Forecast
      + Reports
          o Forecast Verification
          o Geoalert - Alerts, Analysis and Forecast Codes
          o Geophysical Alert
          o Solar and Geophysical Event Reports
          o USAF Magnetometer Analysis Report
      + Models
          o Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast
          o CTIPe Total Electron Content Forecast
          o D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP)
          o Geoelectric Field Models (US Canada 1D & 3D EMTF CONUS)
          o Geospace Geomagnetic Activity Plot
          o Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps
          o Geospace Magnetosphere Movies
          o North American (US Region) Total Electron Content
          o North American Total Electron Content
          o Relativistic Electron Forecast Model
          o SEAESRT
          o STORM Time Empirical Ionospheric Correction
          o WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
          o WAM-IPE
      + Observations
          o Boulder Magnetometer
          o GOES Electron Flux
          o GOES Magnetometer
          o GOES Proton Flux
          o GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI)
          o GOES X-ray Flux
          o LASCO Coronagraph
          o Planetary K-index
          o Real Time Solar Wind
          o Satellite Environment
          o Solar Synoptic Map
          o Space Weather Overview
          o Station K and A Indices
      + Summaries
          o Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary
          o Solar Region Summary
          o Summary of Space Weather Observations
      + Alerts, Watches and Warnings
          o Alerts, Watches and Warnings
          o Notifications Timeline
      + Experimental
          o ACE Real-Time Solar Wind
          o Aurora Viewline for Tonight and Tomorrow Night
          o Electric Power Community Dashboard
          o International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Space
            Weather Advisory
          o Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO)
      + Data Access
  * Dashboards
      + Aurora
      + Aviation
      + Electric Power
      + Emergency Management
      + Global Positioning System
      + Radio
      + Satellites
      + Space Weather Enthusiasts
  * Media and Resources
      + Education and Outreach
      + Glossary
      + News Archive
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