https://www.thejusticegap.com/experts-warn-letby-inquiry-about-misinterpreting-stats-to-explain-suspicious-clusters-of-hospitals-deaths/ WE ARE A MAGAZINE ABOUT LAW AND JUSTICE | AND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO October 06 2023 WE ARE A MAGAZINE ABOUT LAW AND JUSTICE | AND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO * Home * About us * Donate * Search Search [ ] Close this search box. * Menu MENUMENU * News * Interviews * Long Reads * Podcast * Shop * Contributors * Newsletter * Criminal Justice * Human rights * Immigration * Journalism * Miscarriages of Justice * Police * Prisons * Protest * Search Search [ ] Close this search box. * All News + Civil liberties + Criminal Justice + HUMAN RIGHTS + IMMIGRATION + JOURNALISM + Miscarriages of Justice + POLICE + PRISONS + PROTEST * LONG READS * PROOF MAGAZINE * CONTRIBUTORS * ABOUT US * Donate * NEWSLETTER Experts warn Letby inquiry about misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' clusters of hospitals deaths * By Editor * 4 October 2023 | 9:04 am * Miscarriages of Justice, News [logo-svg] * By Editor * 4 October 2023 | 9:04 am [donate-design-button-larger-size] Experts warn Letby inquiry about misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' clusters of hospitals deaths [LL] The national body representing statisticians has written to the Lucy Letby inquiry flagging concerns about the dangers of misinterpreting statistical evidence to explain 'suspicious' clusters of deaths in hospitals. Andrew Garrett and Sarah Cumbers, president and chief executive of the Royal Society of Statistical Society yesterday warned inquiry chair, Lady Justice Thirlwall that it is 'far from straightforward to draw conclusions from suspicious clusters of deaths in hospitals.' ' [It] is a statistical challenge to distinguish event clusters that arise from criminal acts from those that arise coincidently from other factors, even if the data in question was collected with rigor.' The RSS highlights its own 2022 report - Healthcare Serial Killer or Coincidence? - which notes that drawing 'causal conclusions from a statistically improbable cluster of events' is 'often challenging'. ' [One] of the fundamental principles of logical inference is that correlation does not prove causation,' it says. That report highlights the biggest miscarriage of justice in Holland. Lucia de Berk was a paediatric nurse who in 2004, following an appeal, was convicted of seven murders and three attempted murders. Academics and statisticians, including Professor Richard Gill, challenged the use of statistics to suggest a sinister interpretation of deaths that arose on the ward. Prof Gill, emeritus professor of statistics at Leiden University, has been vocal in his belief that Lucy Letby could be a victim of a miscarriage of justice. He is one of a number of senior statisticians who raised concerns about the safety of the conviction of Ben Geen (as featured on the Justice Gap). 'Justice systems are sometimes called upon to evaluate cases in which healthcare professionals are suspected of killing their patients illegally,' the RSS says. These cases are 'difficult to evaluate' because they involve 'at least two levels of uncertainty'. 'Commonly in a murder case it is clear that a homicide has occurred, and investigators must resolve uncertainty about who is responsible. In the cases we examine here there is also uncertainty about whether homicide has occurred,' it continues. 'Investigators need to consider whether the deaths that prompted the investigation could plausibly have occurred for reasons other than homicide, in addition to considering whether, if homicide was indeed the cause, the person under suspicion is responsible.' The report has been written by a working group of world experts including Prof Gill, Prof Peter Green, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Bristol, Prof Julia Mortera, from Universita Roma Tre, Prof William Thompson, professor emeritus at the University of California. Prof David Spiegelhalter, who has also spoken out about the Ben Geen case, told the Guardian that he welcomed the letter from the RSS. 'Judging whether something is too surprising to be 'just a coincidence' should not be a matter for human intuition - expert statistical analysis is required,' he said. The paper looks at the 'statistical challenge' of distinguishing clusters that arise from criminal acts and those that are innocent. It argues that 'seemingly improbable patterns of events (eg apparent clusters, rising trends, etc.)' can often arise 'without criminal behaviour and may therefore have less probative value than people assume for distinguishing criminality from coincidence'. According to the RSS, Lucia De Berk had been under suspicion in her hospital for some months as a result of gossip about 'her tough, disturbed childhood and striking personality'. 'When a child in her care died suddenly, the death was immediately announced to be completely unexpected and, by implication, suspicious,' the report explains. Hospital officials identified eight further deaths or resuscitations that had occurred while she had been on duty as 'medically suspicious'. The nurse was linked to 'suspicious' deaths at two other hospitals where she had worked. There are obvious parallels with the Lethby case. Statements in de Berk's diary about 'a very great secret' and a 'compulsion' on a day that a patient had died were given a sinister interpretation. At her original trial, a criminologist asserted that the probability of so many deaths occurring while de Berk was on duty was only one in 342 million. According to the RSS, prominent statisticians came forward to argue that the incriminating statistic was based on 'an over-simplified and unrealistic model, biased data collection, and a serious methodological error'. 'The probability of so many deaths occurring by chance may have been as high as one in 25,' it said. As a result the case was re-tried in 2010 and de Berk was acquitted. The scandal led to reforms in the Dutch legal system Print Friendly, PDF & Email [donate-design-button-larger-size] * Author: Editor Most Popular [old-bailey] No decision on anonymity for Met officer charged with Chris Kaba's murder [BB2-350x16] Former High Court judge highlights risk of miscarriages of justice because of legal aid problems [JENGbA-11-] The racist stereotypes behind joint enterprise [1989-Guild] Guildford Four: how the innocent were framed and the truth buried Stay informed Sign up for our weekly newsletter Email [ ] Submit The Justice Gap is an online magazine about the law and justice run by journalists. read more... [Proof-issu] Our print magazine is Proof. Contributors include Michael Mansfield QC, Bob Woffinden, David Rose, Eric Allison and Ian Cobain. 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