https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/02/after-seven-years-of-brexit-talks-europe-has-emerged-as-the-clear-winner

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[                    ]
Europe | Charlemagne

After seven years of Brexit talks, Europe has emerged as the clear
winner

At least it's over

[20230304_E]
Mar 2nd 2023
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In 2020 Britain devised a new tactic to insult its European
neighbours, a long-standing hobby. The diplomat representing the EU 
in London would henceforth be denied the rank of full ambassador, a
courtesy routinely granted to the bloc despite its not being a
country. Instead, the Man from Brussels would be granted the lowlier
status as an envoy of an international organisation, sending him
tumbling down the protocol order. (The plan was later reversed after
the EU reciprocated.) Contrast that with this week, when the head of
the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was invited to meet
King Charles III at Windsor Castle. Forget the tabloid barbs about
unelected Eurocrats; a royal aide dubbed her a "world leader" of the
sort worthy of high tea. Whatever the opposite of a diplomatic snub
is called, this was it.

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Ms von der Leyen's tea capped a watershed visit. On February 27th she
reached an agreement with Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, on how to
handle issues pertaining to Northern Ireland. This had been the last
and most intractable piece of the Brexit puzzle, because the region
needs somehow to remain largely part of both the EU's single market
and the United Kingdom, to avoid having to reinstate a previously
troublesome border with Ireland. A complex deal has put the issue to
bed. The divorce between Britain and Europe had legally been
pronounced in 2020, four years after the referendum in June 2016. But
only now do we know what the future living arrangements will look
like.

Wonks are currently poring over the "Windsor framework". It looks
like a balanced agreement that allows both sides to save face and
move on. Looking at the overall shape of Brexit as it has been
haggled over in the past seven years, however, leaves a different
impression. Just a glance at the cast present at the final stage of
Brexit talks offers a hint of which polity has had a rougher time
since talks began. Mr Sunak is Britain's fifth prime minister since
the referendum, and his Conservative Party is headed for a thumping
defeat next year, thanks in no small part to endless spats over
Brexit. Ms von der Leyen by contrast is just the second person in her
job in that time, and will probably get another five-year term next
spring. The manner in which Britain left the EU has turned into a
national psychodrama; polls indicate most Brits think leaving the
club was a mistake. In Brussels dealing with Britain's latest twist
was only an occasional agenda point.

Vote Leave campaigners had claimed London would "hold all the cards"
in talks with the EU. In fact the opposite turned out to be true.
Britain imagined it could craft a way to leave the union but retain
the stuff it cared about, like some access to the single market. Or
did it? In truth nobody ever worked out what Britain really wanted.
Setting priorities was terribly square for the likes of Boris
Johnson, the dishevelled foreign-turned-prime minister who steered
Britain through much of the haggling. Far better to quip about
wanting a cake and eating it too. A rotating cast of Brits arrived in
Brexit talks with fuzzy notions of being treated like Switzerland or
Ukraine. Opposite them were seasoned Eurocrats carrying weighty
briefing packs pointing out why that was not to be.

This was no whizz team to beat at the negotiating table, yet the EU 
deserves plaudits. Its own aims were clear: Brexit should be a
one-off event, not serve as a precedent. No country remaining in the 
EU could be in any doubt that departing from the club would leave it
worse off. To achieve this, Britain would need to get a raw deal.
London had hoped it could divide and conquer the remaining 27 members
of the EU. An often savvy negotiator for its own interest in the 47
years it was a member of the bloc, it turned out to be all at sea
negotiating against it. Michel Barnier, a former French foreign
minister who became Brussels's point man on Brexit, ensured national
capitals were kept fully up to speed in the talks.

When it came to the nitty-gritty of coming to an agreement on terms,
the triumph of the EU side was to play to its reputation as an
inflexible bureaucracy capable only of ticking boxes. Countries
looking to join the EU are familiar with this approach--here's what
you have to do, now do it--which was broadly recycled for the only
country trying to leave it. Once the 27 remaining countries had
decided among themselves what they thought was fair, Britain had
little choice but to jump through hoops designed by its negotiating
foes. The tone was set early on. Britain had to agree to pony up over
PS35bn ($42bn) to get to the next stage of talks, for example, to fund
its share of future Eurocrat pensions. It tried to quibble but
ultimately just had to pay. And so it went.

One last insult for the road

In an irony that slews of discarded Brexit negotiators in London will
not have missed, the Windsor deal shows the inflexible-EU approach
had been an act all along. It turns out the commission had lots of
scope to accede to British demands, and ask for permission from
member states later. It just hadn't wanted to before. Indeed, Britain
has achieved a better deal than anyone expected, though that may not
be saying much. In part that is because the EU had long ago achieved
its main aim: not even the maddest populist on the continent thinks
leaving the club would leave it better off nowadays. The departure of
Mr Johnson, once a purveyor of souped-up Brussels-bashing stories for
the Daily Telegraph, also helped. The war in Ukraine has stressed the
importance of continental unity: Britain remains a key NATO ally.
America pressed both sides to do a deal. Having bulldozed its way to
negotiating victory, the EU saw little point in hammering home the
point.

The offer of a royal meet-and-greet was but one sign that a happier
relationship between Britain and the continent may be in the offing.
Nothing is likely to change in the short term: Europe has
continent-wide elections next spring, a few months before Britain
goes to the polls. For now all sides are relieved that, after seven
years of talks, this deal is finally done. But one side has quite a
bit more to be happy about than the other. #

Read more from Charlemagne, our columnist on European politics:
Why Vladimir Putin will never stand trial in The Hague (Feb 23rd)
What's behind France's fatal fascination with Russia (Feb 16th)
Europe should not respond to America's subsidies binge with its own
blunders (Feb 9th)

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition
under the headline "Bulldozing to victory"

Europe March 4th 2023

  * The war in Ukraine has made eastern Europe stronger
  * Ukraine finds stepping up mobilisation is not so easy
  * Syrian earthquake survivors in Turkey have nowhere to go
  * Italy's largest opposition party gets a young and radical new
    leader
  * After seven years of Brexit talks, Europe has emerged as the
    clear winner

Eat, inject, repeatEat, inject, repeat

From the March 4th 2023 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

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