http://justthesocialfacts.blogspot.com/2022/10/lost-in-translation.html Just the social facts, ma'am Tuesday, October 4, 2022 Lost in translation A few days ago, the New York Times had an opinion piece by Huw Green , a clinical psychologist, which said "A clear causal link between psychiatric illness and gun violence has not been established..." I followed the link, which was an interview with Ragy Girgis, a professsor of psychiatry at Columbia University. That story had a caption saying "Findings from the Columbia database help dispel the myth that having a severe psychiatric illness is predictive of who will perpetrate mass murder." It also contained a link to an article by Dr Girgis and others using the database (an attempt to compile a comprehensive list of mass murders since 1900), which said "the prevalence of psychotic symptoms among mass murderers is much higher than that in the general population (11% v. approximately 0.3-1%)." That is, people with psychotic symptoms were between 10 and 30 times more likely to commit mass murder than people without psychotic symptoms. How did we go from 10 to 30 times more likely to "dispel the myth"? The interviewer asked "Are people with mental health disorders more likely to commit mass shootings or mass murder?" The answer started "The public tends to link serious mental illnesses, like schizophrenia or psychotic disorders, with violence and mass shootings. But serious mental illness--specifically psychosis--is not a key factor in most mass shootings or other types of mass murder.." That is, it didn't answer the question that had been asked, but a different question: whether most mass murders are committed by people with severe mental health disorders. The answer to this second question is no, according to the information in the database. But the answer to the question that the interviewer had asked was yes (at least for one kind of mental disorder, psychosis). Apparently the interviewer didn't notice the difference, and followed up by asking "why does the public erroneously link mental illness with mass shootings and with violence in general?" This could just be a case of miscommunication--anything involving probabilities can be confusing. However, I think it's an example of a more general problem: sometimes a focus on making sure that people don't draw the wrong conclusions comes at the expense of explaining what the research actually found. I first noted this when writing a post on a study of coffee consumption, where accounts emphasized a point that wasn't supported by the data: that benefits only occurred with moderate consumption, not high consumption. I saw another example later in the summer, when a study of diet and exercise was described as showing "that healthy eating and regular workouts do not, in isolation, stave off later health issues. They need to be done together." In fact, the study suggested exactly the opposite--exercise and diet had additive effects on mortality, and no interactions were found. The reason seemed to be a goal of getting people to think of exercise as a way to improve one's overall health rather than a way of getting away with a bad diet--"the study highlights the importance of viewing food and exercise as components of holistic health, Dr. Ding said, instead of calculating how many miles can 'cancel out' a cookie." With mass shootings, there's concern about increasing the stigma against mental illness. As these examples suggest, the problem is more prevalent in medicine and public health, where researchers know that people might use their findings to make decisions. Posted by David Weakliem at 12:42 PM # Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to FacebookShare to Pinterest No comments: Post a Comment Newer Post Older Post Home Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom) My books * Public Opinion * Hypothesis Testing and Model Selection in the Social Sciences Data Sources * American National Election Studies * Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System * British Election Studies * British Social Attitudes * California Polls (UC Data Lab) * Federal Reserve Economic Data (Fred) * General Social Survey * International Social Survey Programme * Odum Institute Data Archive * Pew Research Center * Roper Center (iPOLL) * SDA--online analysis of ANES, GSS, & more * World Values Survey Blog Archive * V 2022 (57) + > November (6) + V October (5) o No quarter, part 2 o No quarter o Law and public opinion, part 1 o Self-deception o Lost in translation + > September (6) + > August (6) + > July (4) + > June (4) + > May (5) + > April (7) + > March (4) + > February (5) + > January (5) * > 2021 (67) + > December (5) + > November (7) + > October (4) + > September (7) + > August (4) + > July (8) + > June (4) + > May (6) + > April (5) + > March (4) + > February (7) + > January (6) * > 2020 (70) + > December (9) + > November (6) + > October (7) + > September (7) + > August (3) + > July (6) + > June (5) + > May (8) + > April (6) + > March (5) + > February (5) + > January (3) * > 2019 (64) + > December (5) + > November (5) + > October (4) + > September (5) + > August (4) + > July (5) + > June (6) + > May (6) + > April (6) + > March (6) + > February (3) + > January (9) * > 2018 (78) + > December (11) + > November (8) + > October (7) + > September (5) + > August (8) + > July (6) + > June (6) + > May (6) + > April (6) + > March (7) + > February (4) + > January (4) * > 2017 (61) + > December (6) + > November (5) + > October (5) + > September (6) + > August (4) + > July (4) + > June (4) + > May (5) + > April (5) + > March (5) + > February (5) + > January (7) * > 2016 (54) + > December (5) + > November (5) + > October (5) + > September (4) + > August (4) + > July (4) + > June (4) + > May (4) + > April (4) + > March (5) + > February (5) + > January (5) * > 2015 (68) + > December (6) + > November (4) + > October (8) + > September (5) + > August (6) + > July (6) + > June (5) + > May (6) + > April (5) + > March (5) + > February (5) + > January (7) * > 2014 (63) + > December (5) + > November (5) + > October (5) + > September (5) + > August (5) + > July (3) + > June (8) + > May (7) + > April (5) + > March (5) + > February (4) + > January (6) * > 2013 (74) + > December (6) + > November (6) + > October (6) + > September (6) + > August (7) + > July (6) + > June (6) + > May (6) + > April (6) + > March (6) + > February (6) + > January (7) * > 2012 (67) + > December (5) + > November (7) + > October (8) + > September (8) + > August (4) + > July (6) + > June (3) + > May (6) + > April (5) + > March (5) + > February (4) + > January (6) * > 2011 (60) + > December (5) + > November (5) + > October (6) + > September (6) + > August (5) + > July (8) + > June (6) + > May (3) + > April (5) + > March (4) + > February (4) + > January (3) * > 2010 (20) + > December (4) + > November (4) + > October (7) + > September (5) About Me My photo David Weakliem I was a professor of sociology at the University of Connecticut from 1994 until my retirement in 2021. I am editor of the journal Comparative Sociology. My new book, Public Opinion, was published by Polity in 2020. Hypothesis Testing and Model Selection in the Social Sciences was published by The Guilford Press in April 2016. View my complete profile Simple theme. Powered by Blogger.