https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3322 Skip to main content Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript. Advertisement Advertisement Nature Climate Change * View all journals * Search * My Account Login * Explore content * About the journal * Publish with us * Subscribe * Sign up for alerts * RSS feed 1. nature 2. nature climate change 3. letters 4. article * Published: 19 June 2017 Global risk of deadly heat * Camilo Mora ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7183-960X^1, * Benedicte Dousset^2, * Iain R. Caldwell ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8148-8762^3, * Farrah E. Powell^1, * Rollan C. Geronimo^1, * Coral R. Bielecki^4, * Chelsie W. W. Counsell^3, * Bonnie S. Dietrich^5, * Emily T. Johnston^4, * Leo V. Louis^4, * Matthew P. Lucas^6, * Marie M. McKenzie^1, * Alessandra G. Shea^1, * Han Tseng^1, * Thomas W. Giambelluca^1, * Lisa R. Leon^7, * Ed Hawkins ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677^8 & * ... * Clay Trauernicht^6 Show authors Nature Climate Change volume 7, pages 501-506 (2017)Cite this article * 23k Accesses * 609 Citations * 4817 Altmetric * Metrics details Subjects * Climate change * Environmental impact Abstract Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity^1,2,3,4,5,6. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events^1,2,3, 4,5,6,7, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths^2,3,4,5. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published between 1980 and 2014, and found 783 cases of excess human mortality associated with heat from 164 cities in 36 countries. Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly. Around 30% of the world's population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to ~48% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and ~74% under a scenario of growing emissions. An increasing threat to human life from excess heat now seems almost inevitable, but will be greatly aggravated if greenhouse gases are not considerably reduced. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution Relevant articles Open Access articles citing this article. * Surface warming in global cities is substantially more rapid than in rural background areas + Zihan Liu + , Wenfeng Zhan + ... Xuhui Lee Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 29 September 2022 * Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves + Vittal Hari + , Subimal Ghosh + ... Rohini Kumar Nature Communications Open Access 12 September 2022 * ,,Frieden verbessert das Klima" - Zivile Konfliktbearbeitung als Beitrag zur sozial-okologischen Transformation + Daniela Pastoors + , Lukas Drees + ... Jurgen Scheffran Zeitschrift fur Aussen- und Sicherheitspolitik Open Access 05 September 2022 Access options Access through your institution Access through your institution Change institution Buy or subscribe Subscribe to Nature+ Get immediate online access to Nature and 55 other Nature journal $29.99 monthly Subscribe Subscribe to Journal Get full journal access for 1 year $99.00 only $8.25 per issue Subscribe All prices are NET prices. VAT will be added later in the checkout. Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout. Buy article Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube. $32.00 Buy All prices are NET prices. Additional access options: * Log in * Learn about institutional subscriptions Figure 1: Geographical distribution of recent lethal heat events and their climatic conditions. [41558_2017_Article_BFnclimate3322_Fig1_HTML] Figure 2: Current and projected changes in deadly climatic conditions. [41558_2017_Article_BFnclimate3322_Fig2_HTML] Figure 3: Geographical distribution of deadly climatic conditions under different emission scenarios. [41558_2017_Article] Figure 4: Latitudinal risk of deadly climates. [41558_2017_Article_BFnclimate3322_Fig4_HTML] Figure 5: Simulated spatio-temporal changes in deadly climatic conditions in Earth System Models. [41558_2017_Article_BFnclimate3322_Fig5_HTML] References 1. Patz, J. A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Holloway, T. & Foley, J. A. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438, 310-317 (2005). Article CAS Google Scholar 2. Basu, R. & Samet, J. M. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol. Rev. 24, 190-202 (2002). Article Google Scholar 3. Kovats, R. S. & Hajat, S. Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu. Rev. Publ. Health 29, 41-55 (2008). Article Google Scholar 4. Leon, L. R. 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Article Google Scholar Download references Acknowledgements We thank the Gridded Human Population of the World Database and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and Department of Defense reanalysis database for making their data openly available and B. Jones for sharing human population projections. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP5, and thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table 1) for producing and making available their model outputs. We also thank D. Schanzenbach, S. Cleveland and R. Merrill from the University of Hawai'i Super Computer Facility for allowing access to computing facilities and Hawai'i SeaGrant for providing funds to acquire some of the computers used in these analyses. Q. Chen, A. Smith, C. Dau, R. Fang and S. Seneviratne provided valuable contributions to the paper. The opinions or assertions contained herein are the private views of the authors and are not to be construed as official or as reflecting the views of the Army or the Department of Defense. We thank R. Carmichael, M. Deaton, D. Johnson and M. Smith in ESRI's Applications Prototype Lab for the creation of the online mapping application. This paper was developed as part of the graduate course on 'Methods for Large-Scale Analyses' in the Department of Geography, University of Hawai'i at Manoa. Author information Authors and Affiliations 1. Department of Geography, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i, 96822, USA Camilo Mora, Farrah E. Powell, Rollan C. Geronimo, Marie M. McKenzie, Alessandra G. Shea, Han Tseng & Thomas W. Giambelluca 2. Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i, 96822, USA Benedicte Dousset 3. Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Kane'ohe, Hawai'i, 96744, USA Iain R. Caldwell & Chelsie W. W. Counsell 4. Department of Botany, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i, 96822, USA Coral R. Bielecki, Emily T. Johnston & Leo V. Louis 5. Department of Plant and Environmental Protection Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i, 96822, USA Bonnie S. Dietrich 6. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i, 96822, USA Matthew P. Lucas & Clay Trauernicht 7. Thermal and Mountain Medicine Division, U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick, Massachusetts, 01760, USA Lisa R. Leon 8. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, RG6 6BB, UK Ed Hawkins Authors 1. Camilo Mora View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 2. Benedicte Dousset View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 3. Iain R. Caldwell View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 4. Farrah E. Powell View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 5. Rollan C. Geronimo View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 6. Coral R. Bielecki View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 7. Chelsie W. W. Counsell View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 8. Bonnie S. Dietrich View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 9. Emily T. Johnston View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 10. Leo V. Louis View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 11. Matthew P. Lucas View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 12. Marie M. McKenzie View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 13. Alessandra G. Shea View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 14. Han Tseng View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 15. Thomas W. Giambelluca View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 16. Lisa R. Leon View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 17. Ed Hawkins View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar 18. Clay Trauernicht View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar Contributions All authors contributed to the design of the paper. C.M., B.D., I.R.C., F.E.P., R.C.G., C.R.B., C.W.W.C., B.S.D., E.T.J., L.V.L., M.P.L., M.M.M., A.G.S., H.T. and C.T. collected data. C.M. and I.R.C. performed analysis. All authors contributed to the writing of the paper. Corresponding author Correspondence to Camilo Mora. Ethics declarations Competing interests The authors declare no competing financial interests. Supplementary information Supplementary Information Supplementary Information (PDF 3767 kb) Rights and permissions Reprints and Permissions About this article Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark Cite this article Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. et al. Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Clim Change 7, 501-506 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/ nclimate3322 Download citation * Received: 02 June 2016 * Accepted: 17 May 2017 * Published: 19 June 2017 * Issue Date: 01 July 2017 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322 Share this article Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. 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