https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/what-the-superforecasters-predict-for-major-events-in-2023

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The World Ahead | The World Ahead 2023

What the "superforecasters" predict for major events in 2023

The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year

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Nov 18th 2022
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JOURNALISTS AND commentators like to make predictions about the
future using carefully chosen words. Other forecasters prefer the
language of numbers. Good Judgment, a forecasting firm, has recruited
many such individuals to its team of superforecasters, who work
together to provide detailed, specific forecasts. Here are their
predictions for events in 2023.

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Forecasting winner

Congratulations to Jared Leibowich from San Francisco, who has won
The World Ahead 2022 forecasting challenge organised in collaboration
with Good Judgment. He took up forecasting during the pandemic as a
way to maintain his mental health in a time of uncertainty. Could you
be a superforecaster, too?

Test your own prediction skills in our 2023 forecasting challenge,
which runs until October 2023 at gjopen.com/economist

Last year's predictions

The superforecasters scored 5/8 with their predictions for 2022,
correctly calling election results in France and Brazil; the lack of
a Winter Olympics boycott; the outcome of America's midterm
elections; and that global covid-19 vaccinations would reach 12bn
doses in mid-2022. The Omicron variant was to blame for the three
misses. A new dominant variant was not anticipated until later in
2022; Omicron meant gdp growth was weaker than expected; and it
hindered the resumption of air travel in America.

This article appeared in the Superforecasts section of the print
edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline "The experts' best
bets"

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